EPTTL Mafia XLII - Page 59
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
WALL OF TEXT INCOMING | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
In case you didn't notice, whichever lynch was followed on Day 3, if it went wrong whoever pushed it was going to be held accountable, and I can't see anyone changing their minds about that. Mataza is town and pushed me, meaning the town would push Mataza the next day, I pushed youngminii and now that he flipped town my head is on the block. I barely survived yesterday's lynch, and I once again misread voting patterns to support my lynch candidate. I partially blame the lurkers, and I partially blame my unwillingness to change targets, although to be honest, I didn't really have a choice. Once I chose someone to redirect votes onto there wasn't room or time for indecision. Look at how close the lynch was, if I tried to flip flop, or come up with other targets I can guarantee I would be dead right now. Youngminii played bad and I misread his play as being scummy, and from that I extrapolated an analysis that I had no choice but to stick with. In this sense I dug my own grave and I know I am not getting out of this, Mataza is too hard headed to ever change his course, and the mafia will happily get behind him for the next lynch assuming I am not killed by a hatter or a vig tonight. So what would you have me do to prove my innocence? | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
I posit that Mataza is a Mafia Godfather painted to appear to checks as a Veteran. My Theory: Mataza's plan was in fact, wholly fabricated. I don't doubt that sandroba THOUGHT that there was a plan, I just think that sandroba trusted the wrong person. First, the facts: 1) I masoned Mataza and Node n0. 2) I requested that BC mason me. He obliged. 3) Blue-sniping has been INCREDIBLY accurate this game. 4) We haven't lynched a SINGLE Mafia member yet. 5) Node flipped Red from Night Kill (hiro protagonist) 6) BC is BC. RoL is RoL. They're way better than anyone else in this game. My Argument: My argument has 3 phases: PMs, Posts, Conclusion PMs I'm going to paraphrase what happened in my PM world. If any of it is unclear, I'll gladly clear everything up if I live through the night. First, and important to note: Mataza breadcrumbed DT to me in PMs and I called him out on it. He then told me that was a test and that he was really a veteran. I proceeded to tell him that I'm a Vanilla Townie through envious gritted teeth. I told him I thought Hiro Protagonist was suspect. I also told Node that I thought Hiro was suspect...but Node was afk. Node DOES end up responding however, telling me that he was 50/50 on Hiro. Then I flip out because I thought Mataza leaked my suspicion to the Mafia. I share this with Node, and he tells me that he finds my case on aidnai and sandroba worth mentioning, and that he does NOT find Mataza suspicious. Mataza then tells me he hadn't noticed Hiro. Asks my thoughts on GGQ. I do not give any. Mataza tells me he finds ILJ suspicious. I tell him I do not...that he's sheeping after YM and he should tell me why HE thinks ILJ is suspicious. He literally says 'I have nothing. Day 1 witch hunt - I burn the ugliest witch' d1 he tells me it's time for me to bring my suspicions to light in the thread...and proceeds to tell me how to present it. Makes it a point to say "I would do it, but it would steal your show and probably reveal that we are masoned together if you tell everyone that I covered all your points." In other words, "I want to appear as clean as possible on this non-scum lynch" The following day, he tells me he is suspicious of GGQ. Asks that I bring his suspicions to the thread if he dies overnight. Following hiro taking Node out, he asks again about my reads on GGQ and adds OpZ to the question. Also asks who else I'm masoned with. I tell him. Suddenly after he claims he was hit when Sand was killed, he's VERY interested in my mason with Node. Asks if I told him anything, and if I mentioned him in PMs. He also requests that I buddy him less in the thread. IOW, "People find buddying scummy and I don't want that over here guy...I have something to hide." He then reprimands me for removing my vote from RoL when RoL claimed Vig. Says that it promotes hesitancy. Posts Here are a couple posts that I find are key to my argument. + Show Spoiler + On June 16 2011 04:16 Mataza wrote: For clarification: 2:40 he announces "vote GGQ" in the thread, but didn´t vote in the voting thread. Then 30 minutes later at 3:09 he decided to announce "vote: aidnai" and then actually put it in the voting thread. What bugs me about this post is that he's pointing out clerical error as something that should be suspect. I could see this being scummy in the middle of the day, or with a tight lynch, but 1/4 way through the day? It smells more like trying to sprinkle doubt on a bandwagon that's already picking up steam. Interesting to note: Mataza is inactive for the VAST majority d1, after adding his vote to ILJ. This, AFTER claiming his vote was to add "just a tiny bit of pressure". Most of the people who started the wagon abandoned it when ILJ showed up. Not Mataza. + Show Spoiler + On June 21 2011 12:33 Mataza wrote: As per your request:+ Show Spoiler + [19.06.2011 20:57:37] Sandro : If you dont get shot tonight how do you feel about doing the same with bc [19.06.2011 20:57:43] Sandro : assuming I'm alive till then [19.06.2011 20:57:52] Mataza: sending him a heart? [19.06.2011 20:57:57] Sandro : lol [19.06.2011 20:57:59] Mataza: or telling him im a blue role [19.06.2011 20:58:08] Sandro : not telling [19.06.2011 20:58:12] Sandro : just crumbing [19.06.2011 20:58:22] Mataza: hinting breadcrumbing ya [19.06.2011 20:58:32] Sandro : like, that mataza fellow is kinda suspicious [19.06.2011 20:58:43] Sandro : he contacted me day1 to fish about my plan [19.06.2011 20:58:49] Sandro : and just leave it at that [19.06.2011 20:59:18] Sandro : if he's mafia he's gonna auto assume you are blue [19.06.2011 20:59:44] Sandro : like vig/dt/medic [19.06.2011 20:59:48] Mataza: I don´t think it works well if you do it intentionally [19.06.2011 21:00:24] Mataza: you can, but contacting him only to tell him nothing and breadcrumb I´m blue is kinda weird The part about him telling RoL right away was in IRC, and I have no proof for that whatsoever. It was spontaneous by him as I asked him a cryptic question. After the explanation he thought it was bad, after I told him I´m Veteran he was happy he did it. If you want to discuss it indepth mason me or something. Please note the early admittance that he has no proof of the 'nail in the coffin' whatsoever. + Show Spoiler + On June 22 2011 04:52 Mataza wrote: So your defence is that you think Scum decided to stop blue sniping, at which they were very successful so far, and instead do the following:
This isn´t ballsy, this is suboptimal. If scum would play this inefficient they wouldn´t win, because THEY ARE NOT KILLING ENOUGH PEOPLE. Do you know what *is* ballsy? You are: You get fossed early on, then don´t do anything. You wait a long period of time until someone says "He can´t be scum, scum will always pick alternate targets when they are on the block! Therefore he must be the greenest bro in town!" Pick an absolute horrifyingly bad lynch from the inactives. Take one no one ever had on their radar(Syllogism) before to look more genuine than sheeping an existing inactive lynch(Hiro Protagonist). Call the people on the less horrible lynch scummy by virtue of vote analysis(Vote analysis is horrible way to scumhunt). This was where I really started to believe Mataza. But I wasn't factoring in something VERY important. I'd probably call it the Mafia Axiom. Priority Zero: DO NOT GET KILLED. Priority One: Kill as many people as you can. This is key...the mafia's very FIRST RESPONSIBILITY to their team is to NOT DIE. Their numbers are literally their winning condition...when their numbers equal town's numbers, they win. Period. Yes, they've got work to do obviously. But what's the best way to do so, unfettered? Taking down one of the primary analysts/scumhunters. And who's more controversial/looks more scummy in this game, BC or RoL? It's a no-brainer. Mataza pushes Priority 1 as the most important. The reality is, Mafia spent all their KP on Sand EXACTLY to get rid of RoL. There was no guarantee that double-stacking would kill RoL, with all the masons and threat of medic protects, and he could be Vet...but you know what IS guaranteed to kill RoL? A lynch. The most ironic part is, when I reread this post, this was when I really started to DOUBT Mataza. I could literally go on all day quoting posts and why they're scummy when viewed from the stance that Mataza is scum and not Auto-Vet because of his claim. What everyone has to realize is that if Mataza is scum, he HAD to double-stack Sandroba, just as surely as if RoL was scum, he would have had to kill Mataza and Sandroba at the same time. Conclusion: I believe my mason with Mataza is partially to blame for the blue-sniping being so damned accurate this game. I claimed Vanilla Townie, and I'm sure I'm not the only one to have done so to the rest of the scum. I believe that Mataza planned from the very beginning to use his fake-claim to me for SOMETHING...and that opportunity presented itself when sandroba told Mataza that he was in danger. Mataza knew he was in no danger. But a TOWNIE believes that he is. And THIS, he could use. Node was scum, and he defended Mataza in PM to me. Node also voted for RoL. Once the ball was rolling against RoL, the pressure was on. He HAD to get results in order to LIVE. So RoL tunneled. He tunneled like...something that tunnels...really hard. He claims he needed YM to flip to confirm something. I don't doubt that at all. I've already stated that I don't believe RoL is guilty for getting YM lynched. As I said, we've ALL pushed bad lynches in THIS game. This is not a bad lynch. If Mataza lives through the night (hint Vigs: he shouldn't), you'd all better lynch him tomorrow. I'm going to die tonight unless I get medic protection. I'm going to assume that Mataza is now in charge of Mafia by default. Mainly because any vets on his team that approved this are noobs and should quit playing. I think Mataza ALMOST LOST it when RoL didn't get lynched, as I believe he was the main target...and suddenly, WHO is the Godfather when RoL lives? BloodyC0bbler, the OTHER primary analyst/scumhunter sided with town. It's laughable when you look at all the facts. I've been up all night guys, I've literally been UP ALL NIGHT figuring this shit out, because as a result of Mataza's ploy, I no longer trusted BC. So I had to come up with this shit on my own. If you outright REJECT my assessment, PLEASE do so levelly and fairly. I'm VERY tired, and I'll take it the wrong way if I get "LoLnOoBz0rZ" from ANYONE. I may have left some stuff out, if I did..if ANY part of this isn't clear to you, PLEASE ask me to clarify. I've never been more certain of anything in my life. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On June 21 2011 11:34 youngminii wrote: mm i'm betting my money on another explanation rol and node were going head to head quite a bit i know they could be doing the shift but the simpler explanation is usually the right one, and for now we should take that into consideration This message has been brought to you by a confirmed TOWNIE. Someone with no reason to look for an "Easy Lynch". Because he's dead. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
I was not unwilling to believe your innocence. I was unwilling to see the painfully obvious. What I need from you now is to find the rest of the scum. I don't know where to start, and I have a feeling you do. It might be hard, as there could be another GF...but maybe not because Node was the other. We just don't know. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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Mataza
Germany5364 Posts
Conclusion: I believe my mason with Mataza is partially to blame for the blue-sniping being so damned accurate this game. Interesting conclusion. You have given me "I think Hiro is scum" then you give "Oh F*** I think he´s a blue. a bad blue, but a blue" Then someone else picks up on Hiro and you give me "Well played scum, I will never talk to you again" You were angry you weren´t involved in the Sandroba plot? Guess what, even though I don´t think you are scum, you could have very well given it to someone(so. was Node )if you had a paranoia attack again. (This is not your first, this is the second paranoia attack you had this game.) When I talked to RoL, *YOU* said me I shouldn´t listen to him and that I am being swayed to think he is innocent. That I should be more headstrong and refuse to talk to him. And *NOW* you are the one thinking RoL is innocent. Balance is a horrible argument. I will start believing in player balance when flamewheel comes out here and starts listing player strength rankings. But first of all, how the HELL did you help me snipe blues? You have given me exactly Hiro, no one else. The dead blues, chaos13, Mig and Scamp, we never even talked about them. How did you being masoned to me lead to these people dying? I don´t see it! This game may not revolve solely around me, but it doesn´t revolve around you either. Just for your information I was also hard pressed to lynch a scum yesterday, for the same reason RoL was. Nay, even more so because I wanted to drop mafia kp. If BC actually thought RoL is innocent and I am scum and that our plan was to assume that there are not only several Doctors in game, but that they were on all on the one vet we shoot(TL Doctors are notoriously bad -.-), I am losing my faith in BC as a logical thinking player. He called my scenario "total wtf shit". A 3-step scenario with no leaps in logic. Tell someone you are blue, have them tell someone else, survive the hit. If that is "total wtf shit", then I am obviously too dumb to see the easy explanation. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
No pressure my friend.  This isn't paranoia. This is cold, calculated analysis of the fucked up situation as I see it. For the record, I never once, NEVER ONCE in my analysis brought balance into the equation. Go ahead, go back and read it again. I avoided it as a topic entirely. You know why? Because I believe that a town with RoL and BC is horribly imbalanced. But we GOT it yo. So I'm not going to use balance as a basis of my argument. Because it's horrible. As for the BC assumption, I agree with it entirely, as I outlined in my analysis. I don't think you necessarily specifically FEARED that RoL had all that protection, but that was certainly a possibility, and as unlikely as it sounds, even you have to admit that it's a possibility. And what's the only guaranteed way to kill someone you want dead? Have them lynched. He called THE scenario wtf shit. He didn't call your plan wtf shit. Your plan, if you were town and everything is as you say, was fine. What was wtfshit was the fact that you didn't have any proof of it and ALMOST THE ENTIRE TOWN BOUGHT IT. THAT is wtf shit. That's like, WTF...SHIT! | ||
flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
On June 24 2011 00:43 VisceraEyes wrote: Oh hosties?! I noticed Node flipped with no Role. We're not going to find out the roles of flipped scum until after the game is over, are we? No role means no role. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
I'm assuming so, but I want him to spell it out for the rest of town. He should have flipped 'Mafia Goon', 'Mafia Roleblocker' or 'Mafia Godfather' if his role had been revealed...not just 'Mafia'. The point of the question is to raise the possibility that Mafia only have 1 PR left. | ||
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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
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VisceraEyes
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GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Would YOU pass up an opportunity like that? | ||
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