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On June 24 2011 04:09 VisceraEyes wrote:
Whether or not it's true does not discount its possibility, the possibility I'm postulating Mafia were trying to avoid. The fact that it's possible lends to PROVE the credibility of my statement, not disprove it.
I don't really get what you're saying.
Maybe I am misunderstanding something (English is not my native tongue), can you reiterate it in other words?
Of course the scenario that you presented is possible, I just said that I don't think it's plausible.
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Keep in mind, Mataza has NOT flipped blue. He has a mountain of imaginary evidence that says he's blue, but RoL has NOT flipped red, and nothing is PROVEN about his statement.
Literally....nothing.
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On June 24 2011 04:44 VisceraEyes wrote:Note, I didn't say "PROVE my statement" I said "PROVE the credibility of my statement". You just keep digging yourself into a hole, Mataza. And GGQ, the fact that you're only questioning and responding to me leads me to believe that you're defending Mataza and it WILL be reflected on your permanent record. 
Everyone has always been aware that what you're suggesting is a possibility, we're just saying that it's highly unlikely. By making your big post on the situation, you're suggesting that it's in fact probable, or even the most likely explanation. That's what I'm disagreeing with. Mafia is never a game of complete information (well almost never). You just figure out what's most likely and go from there. If you really think that this is the most likely explanation, then fine, but I really really don't, and I'm going to argue against it because if you convince people then you are going to let RoL slip away for the third (3rd!!!) time this game. That's why I changed my mind and said that every town KP should be on RoL tonight. In case you convince some of them, the ones with their heads screwed on straight need to get the job done.
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Mr. Wiggles, to actually argue against coincidence:
We know Sandroba was townsided.
There are 2 possibilities:- I am town and have no reason to lie(GGQ noted I could fake the damning piece of evidence against RoL, but I didn´t)
- I am scum. This would open a lot of questions, like "Why even attack RoL, he was useless?", "Why stop sniping blues and kill only Sandroba?", so I think we can agree that it is rather unlikely.
Assuming I am town and did not lie about my plan against RoL.
There 2 possibilities for how the outcome of the night happened:- My plan(I wrote this so often you should know it by now). If the bluetell worked and RoL is scum it has around a 99.9% of happening.
- It just happened. Now this would mean that a 0,7% likely event happened. You can increase this chance to 8-9% if you can give any reason for shooting one of us.
Now, assuming Sandroba didn´t lie to me, I am not lying(because townies generally don´t have a reason to lie) and that RoL is innocent, then there must be some reason visible in the thread.
If scum actually hit me and Sandroba for shits and giggles, then they probably didn´t even talk yesterday because there was no reason to talk.
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On June 24 2011 04:44 VisceraEyes wrote:Note, I didn't say "PROVE my statement" I said "PROVE the credibility of my statement". You just keep digging yourself into a hole, Mataza. And GGQ, the fact that you're only questioning and responding to me leads me to believe that you're defending Mataza and it WILL be reflected on your permanent record.
Yes, because Node defended me and is scum it means that GGQ defending me is scum too.
We are truly lucky that BC did defend RoL yesterday because they are probably both vigilantes.
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A hole i am digging myself in?
Look back at what you assume to be possible. Realise it is possible but like the most unlikey thing ever.
Look back at me. I am hunting the most likely explanation.
Now look back to your possibility.
Now back to my theory.
The hole I am digging is now the trench of my fortress of reasons why the stuff happening in this game is actually happening.
Please start thinking in Cause-and-Effect ways of thinking. Stuff doesn´t happen for shits and giggles.
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On June 24 2011 05:28 Mataza wrote:Mr. Wiggles, to actually argue against coincidence: We know Sandroba was townsided. There are 2 possibilities: - I am town and have no reason to lie(GGQ noted I could fake the damning piece of evidence against RoL, but I didn´t)
- I am scum. This would open a lot of questions, like "Why even attack RoL, he was useless?", "Why stop sniping blues and kill only Sandroba?", so I think we can agree that it is rather unlikely.
Assuming I am town and did not lie about my plan against RoL. There 2 possibilities for how the outcome of the night happened: - My plan(I wrote this so often you should know it by now). If the bluetell worked and RoL is scum it has around a 99.9% of happening.
- It just happened. Now this would mean that a 0,7% likely event happened. You can increase this chance to 8-9% if you can give any reason for shooting one of us.
Now, assuming Sandroba didn´t lie to me, I am not lying(because townies generally don´t have a reason to lie) and that RoL is innocent, then there must be some reason visible in the thread. If scum actually hit me and Sandroba for shits and giggles, then they probably didn´t even talk yesterday because there was no reason to talk.
Your meaningless percentages that measure NO kind of probability aren't fooling me, and they certainly shouldn't fool anyone else in Town.
Like, really? 0.7% Where did that even come from? Hyperbole, extremism and using town cred YOU HAVEN'T EVEN EARNED YET are your weapons of choice. Mine are logic, fairness and reason.
Good luck in that battle buddy.
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I had math when I first wrote that, I can remath it again.
The night this occured we were 19 players, including Hiro.
I forgot to include Hiro the last time, my fault.
So we were 19 players 6 of them scum. That means 13 town players who can be hit by the scum.
The chance for any of the 13 townies to be hit by one kp is 1/13, or 7.69 %
The chance for one of 12 townies to be hit is 1/12, or 8.33%
To be really simple about this, the chance that 2 specific players are hit is the combination of this:
0.0769 multiplied with 0.08333
The result of this simple math is 0.64%
Before I used 1/12 and 1/11 which made the chance appeared higher than it actually was.
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To rephrase that:
The mathematical chance that Sandroba and I were both hit for no reason is very fucking low.
Btw, scum don´t only defend other scum players.
If I am scum, I defended Youngminii. Youngminii is innocent.
Node defended me. Node was scum.
Am I scum for that?
How about Youngminii? Would he be scum if he was not already dead, because I defended him?
You are being deluded by BC and RoL´s arguments from yesterday. They are not even arguing now. Guess why?
If you get me killed, people will blame you.
Not BC or whoever planted this idea in your head with their words.
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Mafia don't shoot randomly.
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I'm also sure they had reasons, but are you actually going to sit there and ask me to come up with reasons why mafia would have shot you two? It's a waste of time, as it's complete conjecture.
Maybe they shot you because you're active? Maybe you're talking to one of them in PM and said something that warranted a shot? Maybe they just think that you were a threat at that point in time? Maybe they think you're a strong player? Maybe they wanted to cast suspicion on someone?
I'm not going to comment more, because it's a complete joke and a waste of time. If you want, give me concrete reasons for why everyone else was shot in this game, and then we can laugh together when we're completely wrong because we don't know why scum shot someone unless it's blatantly obvious like claiming DT, until they tell us.
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Well, I'm through trying to convince you that you're scum. That gets town nowhere 100% of the time. My case is out there. People will believe it or they won't.
I'm here to answer questions for whomever, but I'm not going to sit here and try and convince you that you're scum, Mataza. I'm sure that's what you'd like.
It should be clear to town, based on my previous accusations, votes and stances that I have what's best for town in mind. Nothing has changed between yesterday and now besides who I think is scum and what I think really happened.
I'll leave you to push your agenda as far as you think it will go. To everyone else, I hope you make the right choice.
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Flamewheel will not be around for the day post. If you have not already done so please send all your night actions to me.
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USA5860 Posts
On June 24 2011 00:50 VisceraEyes wrote:
You still giving up RoL? Or do you think maybe you might have a bullet to deliver?
I am not a vig, it was all part of an elaborate plan that fell through when youngminii flipped town.
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Delightful. Lies make you look less town you know. You've told a lot. A LOT. Speaking contextually, obviously.
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Well...I got nothin. I await death. My DNS server is going down in a couple hours...I probably won't be around for the Night post. Never know though.
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USA5860 Posts
On June 24 2011 08:33 VisceraEyes wrote:
Delightful. Lies make you look less town you know. You've told a lot. A LOT. Speaking contextually, obviously.
yep, but if I was mafia, i wouldn't bother telling you any of this.
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USA5860 Posts
Alright, so here is the thing. I was never a vig. BC claimed vig to me. Tonight I told BC to kill GGQ, if he fails to follow through then we must assume he is mafia.
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For not obeying? What if he doesn't particularly agree with your PoV?
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And you realize that you and I are the only ones pretty much not already assuming that, yes?
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EPT
