EPTTL Mafia XL
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On June 07 2011 09:35 Treadmill wrote: Another interesting point: Jackal58 makes his case against rookie44, it's pretty weak, the people posting aren't convinced. Nobody but him votes for rookie44. Then an hour later Look at the time stamps, within 3 minutes of each other. And none of them posted for 2 hours previous to bandwagonning rookie. It looks liek co-ordination. Also check Senj, for the bandwagoning on Rookie. | ||
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On June 08 2011 13:03 GGQ wrote: GGQ's big post of epicness in case he dies tonight (which I've just realised I dont have enough time to make as long as I want  Trust me that it's smart and good:No one undertook the exercise I set of looking at who defended and attacked lafali and why. I'm very disappointed, guys. You all get 0/2 on your homework for today. The veteran players are all going to be dead before this game is nearly over, and you guys need to practice working on how to actually find scum, not just accuse people based on neutral tells. Keep your heads up, don't get discouraged. Look at contradictions in talk and behavior. Look at people who are skating by with posts that just repeat previous content. These are the scummy players. The point was to lead you to Kurumi and iGrok above everyone else. Kurumi attacks lafali for his bandwagon vote bringing nothing new to the table on freeloader. There was absolutely no reason for him to throw scum on lafali so early in the game if he's mafia. Plus his aggressiveness and balls-out attitude are more inline with a green than anything else. Kurumi is most likely town. iGrok defends lafali as probably newb town. He's the only one who defends lafali straight out, but Vain, aprudds, monsterDrakar, and Senj also soft-defend him. I'm not saying they are all scum, but it's a great place to look for scum (dts take note! vigis save your shots). At this point in time I think iGrok is almost certainly the godfather of the mafia team (it could be jackal as well but his behavior doesn't fit the role as well, and seems more in line with the town play I've seen from him). iGrok defends lafali after Kurumi calls him out and votes for him, while before this accusation he posted that everyone who had voted so far ( which included lafali) should be under suspicion. Contradiction. iGrok has also been working to get into a town-leadership and thread-presence position all game, something the godfather always tries to do. iGrok also got way too defensive after being attacked and accused. Other suspicious people to me: Vain, partly for defending lafali, partly for advocating the lynch on freeloader for 'information' blehhhhh I already posted about that, and partly because iGrok listed him as a skilled vet with him, me and jackal when I think he's quite new and I havent seen anything particularly good from him. iGrok probably wanted another mafia on that list, though. Of course jimbooo whom I voted Day 1, for reasons already stated by multiple players. Others are monsterDrakar and Senj. xkcd has decreased on my scum meter lately but isn't totally clear. I've read most of the posts in the thread since the day started, and I've barely picked up anything except random white noise against each other. This is one of the few well organized posts that isn't TLDR with too much fluff, not enough meat. I can totally see why they would spend 2 KP's on this guy. Seriously, some people are reading way too deep into people's words and adding their own already-present biases into someone's post, and then using that to reinforce their own thoughts. People should really put more emphasis into logical arguments not stuff like "oh he's defending himself too hard" or "he's posting too aggressively". I would look for actual contradictions and/or other evidence like GGQ did. Personally, I think there's only 1 person that we have solid evidence against: Amazingkxcd (nearly all his posts are random finger pointing, vote bandwagonning on Rookie and failure to explain his vote bandwagonning) As for iGrok, I do agree he could be GF, but I don't think it's a high priority to kill him this early. He seems like a decent player and it would be a big loss if he really is town. Just keep an eye on him, to see if he keeps making contradictory posts. I also think Mafia are far more likely to be people who are infrequent posters (except for the GF of course) than be prominent figures in this thread since this is a newbie game after all, so I would try to analyze these people more. | ||
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On June 09 2011 10:28 Impervious wrote: It's currently a tie. I'm going to break it. I feel like there's a strong case vs iGrok, although I am less sure of it than I am of xkcd. I am a little surprised that no vigis took a shot last night. Our vigis may be inactive, or we may not even have any. Because I was sure the case for lynching xkcd was strong enough to warrant an early hit. w/e. I'm voting xkcd for now. Thank you.. this is exactly what I was trying to say. Personally, when I read iGrok's posts on Day 1, I came to the same conclusion and they all seemed grounded in reason without seeming the least bit suspicious to me. Take a step back and don't assume someone is mafia FIRST, then base your analysis on that assumption. Instead, simply look for contradictions or other tells showing that he really could be mafia. Defending yourself against ridiculous tunneling arguments is also hardly a sign of being mafia. | ||
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On June 10 2011 01:28 Sprungjeezy wrote: Honestly, I don't understand why people are reading Treadmills and XCD's posts. While its important to hear their defense, they aren't defending themselves, but DISTRACTING you. - haven't read 48 yet. What would be an appropriate defense in your eyes? I'm curious. I've been reading http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=147475 for some insight into reading scum tells. Basically what Ver shows us is that the most important theme among mafia posts is looking like they're contributing, but not actually say anything. Basically, a lot of empty words without performing any real analysis, not suggesting any targets and not coming to any conclusions. KXCD's post was actually the exact opposite of that. He actually analyzed players pretty deeply and used plenty of reasoning in his posts if you read it carefully. I haven't read all of it yet, but what I have read so far has made sense to me at least when I was reading it, and he gave strong conclusions about whether people were town or mafia. It's basically as Pro-Town as you can possibly get. Mafia on the other hand do NOT want you to have any solid leads or come to any real conclusions, especially not about nearly every single person in this game. Furthermore, he's about to get lynched and he knows it. If he really WAS mafia, all those hours he spent writing it would be worthless since no one would believe anything coming from someone who flipped red. There is basically absolutely no reason why a mafia would make a post like that. While KXCD was very suspicious before for his bandwagonning and his lack of defense, I'm beginning to think that we've made a mistake. iGrok could still very well be GF but arguments against him also seem a bit inconclusive. I'm going to look into the Jackal case for GF myself to see if it makes sense to me. | ||
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On June 10 2011 02:44 Sprungjeezy wrote: As for XCD's analysis, I take it with less than a grain of salt as he has a lot of votes himself and would probably say anything to get people to not vote for him, yet instead of defending himself he throws blame other places. This is the kind of reasoning I take issue with. You are expecting there to be some "magical" defense that will save you from getting lynched when half the town is on you already. What do you expect him to say? "Guys I'm town, please believe me!"? Honestly, if I was Mafia and in his position, I would've just said fuck it and leave the thread, not make some gigantic post giving in-depth analysis to nearly everyone in the game. Just like I said earlier, you need to stop looking at people's posts with mafia-tinted glasses. Maybe he made a strong analytical/Pro-Town post because he IS town, possibly a detective as someone pointed out. | ||
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On June 10 2011 10:03 Jackal58 wrote: Lulz. Since I am going to go to bed shortly and I have to vote and I really don't think Amazingzidwxzyrhgbdss whatever is scum. And iGrok would rage quit if I voted for him. I'm voting for Aril because the little prick just voted for me twice and spelled my name wrong each time. With nary a word in here.Wow guys.. this is one of the scummiest posts I've ever seen. Wishy-washy, apologetic, and leading no where. Ends off with a random useless vote. I'd say this post is far more incriminating than anything Amazing or iGrok have posted so far. Combined with analysis from Amazing (whom I believe is likely DT), I'm switching my vote to Jackal. iGrok just seems disgruntled now, he's still on the list for potential GFs, but I still think it's nowhere near solid. | ||
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On June 10 2011 13:19 Pyo wrote: I'm still not sure why he didn't claim his role as DT given that he was leading the lynch vote. I mean he could have saved himself by just voting for iGrok. All in all, I'm just a little baffled by xkcd's play. Firstly, there are Mafia Roleblockers. Secondly, there's a good chance there are no more Medics. If he made it entirely clear that he's a DT, he'd be dead and/or useless. This is a game of subtleties and why people need to look at things from a neutral/analytical perspective, and not with preconceived notions. | ||
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On June 10 2011 22:00 Jackal58 wrote: If you are a vigilante put your gun away. We may very well need you later in the game. Are you trying to save yourself? Ever since you've got painted as the next target at the top of the list. | ||
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As well as the lynch list. Again, a lot of discrediting of other posts without real analysis, wishy-washy posts, all signs are pointing to scum. | ||
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On June 11 2011 14:17 gtrsrs wrote: you know looking back we have 40 players i doubt there'd be more than 1/5th mafia maximum 8. more likely 7. 3 dead = 4 mafia remaining 4 mafia = 2 KP. 1 KP removed for amazing's death. 2-1 = 1 KP last night it's entirely possible that a vigi shot last night. a vigi hit on jackal would have made sense too. what say you guys? It's stated at the beginning of this thread that it's 32 town, 8 mafia. | ||
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On June 09 2011 00:58 grush57 wrote: Alright, I'm going to say that amazingxcd is scum, for he is not responding to any accusations and lynched a medic and had no clear evidence that rookie was scum. This is an amazing case,I can't agree more! Not. You're a terrible poster and horrible scum. You haven't made any case against him Yourself. You're just active lurking and joining on any potential bandwagon. There was clear evidence on rookie44:blue fishing,though it can go either way(confused blue or scum). People who backed off and defended rookie44 hardcore are most likely scum. Treadmill is scum. iGrok is highly likely the GF.[/QUOTE] Fine, Ill just lurk like the other 30 people and jump on bandwagons like the other 30 people, otherwise every time I try to say something everybody else tries to jump on me.[/QUOTE] Here's one of the most incriminating posts of grush57 I just fished out. He was trying to defend his "lurking", and only when he eventually got called out did he actually post something about his reasoning. Obviously Mafia would prefer if they could easily/quietly bandwagon. My vote goes towards him for now. | ||
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On June 12 2011 10:27 grush57 wrote: Coming from someone who has just agreed with another's analysises, always stating the ovbious, and always quoting someone's analysis and then saying that u agree and go vote for them. Sounds scummy for yourself, and now ur calling people scum for doing analysis. I'm sorry for being indirect, but ok aprudds is definetly mafia by the way he is posting, and Vain and Treadmill are innocent. Happy? Aw. poor mafia, about to get lynched and still can't defend himself. | ||
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On June 12 2011 21:40 Kurumi wrote: Grush.. You aren't third medic, are You? That's why You said Treadmill might be a vet.. You protected him! iGrok wanted his scumbuddies to hit Night 1(4KP possible): GGQ(experienced,was on iGrok) - stacked 2 hits DeMorcef(defended iGrok) Treadmill(defended iGrok) - healed by Grush They did not shoot people who attacked iGrok(besides GGQ,who made a brilliant post) because that would be suspicious, they went for the opposite. Night 2(3KP possible): Jackal58 (experienced) Impervious (experienced) Kurumi (somehow experienced) - healed by Grush If You're the "real" medic, PLEASE DON'T COUNTER CLAIM. I don't want to lose third blue thanks to lynch. Grush, please convince others. I will switch my vote to Vain after I get back from a little trip but.. I seriously need You to TALK. The thing is: We lynch Medic, no saves during the night. We lose Medic during the night, one save will be there. I don't see a case where Mafia Goon would out town as Vet/another medic possible. If that's the case, then Treadmill or whoever got healed and hit the first day can simply tell us what happened. It's funny how we haven't even investigated where that last KP went on night 1. The other possibility is that Treadmill really is a vet and the mafia shot him once on night 1, and so it was a really bad scum slip (seems TOO obvious though). Whoever did take a hit should really come out now... I don't see the harm in that. | ||
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On June 13 2011 06:31 TheAwesomeAll wrote: This post is scum 101, Let me summarize it. im gonna vote for grush He plays a certain way, but that doesnt mean shit he votes a certain way, (insert conclusion?) Oh and btw gtrsr why do you suspect me, plz suspect treadmill instead or else ur scum Where did you conclude grush57 was mafia? Normally i would agree he is scum, just for posting bad, but grookie and jimbooo show that since this is a newbie game, not everyone will post as constructive. Also the day 1 posts of grtrs, whining about the haikus, was just asking for votes( in fact he literally asked for votes). Please explain again why you think grush is scum. That being said, you surely deserve your place on my FOS list : Treadmill Grush Vain This post by AwesomeAll one of the mafia who was modkilled decreases my suspicion for Treadmill and Vain. I don't think he was planning to get mod-killed and he knew that Grush was about to be lynched so that was a safe bet. However, there's no reason to throw any of his remaining 2 mafia buddies under the bus before the lynch has even happened yet. Thus, I'm going to say that Treadmill and Vain are both town. On June 13 2011 09:50 35spike1 wrote: Lol, what a scum post. Apoligising for lack of activity, happily stating that he'll jump on the Grush bandwagon, and explaining that he can't be bothered checking out Grush's posts. Similar reasoning here for Alderan. I doubt 35spike1 realized he was about to get mod-killed since he was posting in this thread, but seems wants us to suspect Alderan. On June 13 2011 14:47 heist wrote: All 3 mafia who died this day voted for amazingxkcd. I think it's a safe assumption that NO mafia voted for iGrok. I think we should continue this game based on this assumption. Treadmill Alderan Blackone Aprudds Munk-E These are the only ones left on that list. Vain and teamsolid are the ones who voted for Jackal and thus of lower priority but still possibilities. The ones on the list should be your DT targets. The remaining suspects (who didn't vote iGrok) are Blackone, Aprudds, Munk-E, heist and myself. | ||
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On June 13 2011 09:18 grush57 wrote: I would like to inform you all, that Vain is definetly Town by the way he is acting, voting, and playing. On the other hand, grush made this post AFTER it was already almost certain he was about to get lynched. Seems to me like he wants to mislead us into thinking Vain is mafia (rather than a different target) by defending him moments before getting lynched. Again, I'd take from this that Vain is NOT mafia. On June 13 2011 09:47 35spike1 wrote: I don't remember that, I think we're still unsure of Senj. I'm not sure about Treadmill, but he said he'll give us an analysis of Alderan so that'll be interesting. Kairo seems a bit lurky, + Show Spoiler + On June 09 2011 11:06 Kairo wrote: I feel that we were lucky that we did not get a third townie kill with misvigies, since it would have caused huge amounts of confusion. How likely is it that iGrok and xkcd is on the same team? What would it mean if a) iGrok flips green? b) iGrok flips red? c) xkcd flips green? d) xkcd flips red? My current vote stands for xkcd, but i can still be convinced to change. If any mafia try to affect the grok/xkcd vote situation they will have to leave footprints, which is useful. Is there any 95%+ identified mafia in any of the "what if" scenarios a-d that we can use our vigies on? Is there any 95%+ identified BLATANTLY OBVIOUS FOR MAFIA medic target in any of the "what if" scenarios a-d that we can use? Do NOT out blues for the mafia. There is no need to do any analysis for them. For some of this to be relevant: when does abilites resolve? is it by timer or simuntaneusly at the end of the night? when does medic/vigi PM timing (early/late) matter? I believe this is potentially a double-edged sword, since stressing a decision for mafia could be useful while a premature medic/vigi decision could be really really bad. What would be nice would be to force a win/win situation for the town, but I can not see such a path clearly at this time. is the mafia allowed to change their targets during the night? Given: If targets are allowed to be changed and abilities resolve simuntaneusly at the end of the night then much of this post is garbage. Just one of his posts I found, it's mostly fluff, trying to seem like he's doing something. The a) b) c) d) is him trying to push the work onto other people. Kairo, not that we were suspecting him anyhow, is probably town. | ||
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On June 13 2011 09:47 35spike1 wrote: I don't remember that, I think we're still unsure of Senj. I'm not sure about Treadmill, but he said he'll give us an analysis of Alderan so that'll be interesting. Kairo seems a bit lurky, + Show Spoiler + On June 09 2011 11:06 Kairo wrote: I feel that we were lucky that we did not get a third townie kill with misvigies, since it would have caused huge amounts of confusion. How likely is it that iGrok and xkcd is on the same team? What would it mean if a) iGrok flips green? b) iGrok flips red? c) xkcd flips green? d) xkcd flips red? My current vote stands for xkcd, but i can still be convinced to change. If any mafia try to affect the grok/xkcd vote situation they will have to leave footprints, which is useful. Is there any 95%+ identified mafia in any of the "what if" scenarios a-d that we can use our vigies on? Is there any 95%+ identified BLATANTLY OBVIOUS FOR MAFIA medic target in any of the "what if" scenarios a-d that we can use? Do NOT out blues for the mafia. There is no need to do any analysis for them. For some of this to be relevant: when does abilites resolve? is it by timer or simuntaneusly at the end of the night? when does medic/vigi PM timing (early/late) matter? I believe this is potentially a double-edged sword, since stressing a decision for mafia could be useful while a premature medic/vigi decision could be really really bad. What would be nice would be to force a win/win situation for the town, but I can not see such a path clearly at this time. is the mafia allowed to change their targets during the night? Given: If targets are allowed to be changed and abilities resolve simuntaneusly at the end of the night then much of this post is garbage. Just one of his posts I found, it's mostly fluff, trying to seem like he's doing something. The a) b) c) d) is him trying to push the work onto other people. Further decreases my suspicion for Treadmill (already pretty much cleared from TheAwesomeAll) and Senj. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On June 11 2011 19:42 35spike1 wrote: I thought we get accurate DT checks now that GF is dead. I think Freeloader should be added to this list, he hasn't really contributed to anything and seems to post only to state who he's voting for. Freeloader confirmed as town. + Show Spoiler + On June 10 2011 17:23 35spike1 wrote: I presume he's talking about this Btw, I thought that this would be interesting, iGroks Do-Not-Lynch List. And his reasoning was These people should be watched closely, I myself am still keeping an eye on Treadmill. As if we needed it, more evidence that Treadmill is town. + Show Spoiler + On June 12 2011 09:31 35spike1 wrote: What do you mean by "We shall not accept...". Are we going to insta-lynch people for it, or just pressure them? Otherwise, it's all just basics. @ Vain, where you have you been? I'm sure you're completely happy that Grush is under fire atm but if you don't speak up, you'll be next. This would be a good place for you to start I WILL NOT ACCEPT LURKERS Again, Treadmill confirmed as town. + Show Spoiler + On June 12 2011 17:20 35spike1 wrote: Lol... Guys, we need to get some conversation going. Otherwise lurkers will lurk and town will fail. Suggests that the remaining mafia may not be lurkers. More analysis of TheAwesomeAll: + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2011 15:23 TheAwesomeAll wrote: based on his day 1 voting for falafi i think Munk e is town as well. Increases suspicion of Munk-E, although it could've very well been an attempt by TheAwesomeAll to build town cred. + Show Spoiler + On June 11 2011 16:04 TheAwesomeAll wrote: youre timings were pretty unfortunate, why did you vote xkcd if you suspected he was DT? Treadmill once again attacked by TheAwesomeAll | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On June 12 2011 09:31 35spike1 wrote: What do you mean by "We shall not accept...". Are we going to insta-lynch people for it, or just pressure them? Otherwise, it's all just basics. @ Vain, where you have you been? I'm sure you're completely happy that Grush is under fire atm but if you don't speak up, you'll be next. This would be a good place for you to start I WILL NOT ACCEPT LURKERS Again, Vain confirmed as town. | ||
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On June 14 2011 04:00 Kurumi wrote: Alderan Blackone Aprudds Munk-E Are our main suspect list,right? I will take care of Blackone and Aprudds,brb. We need to narrow that thing to 2-3 suspects. Alderan can be taken off due to 35spike1 attacking him. heist should still be on though, especially after his wall-of-text defense of iGrok early on in the game. | ||
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Feel free to gg if I'm right  | ||
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It's time to GG | ||
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Sucks there were so many mod kills, but what can you do. I would also be curious to see the mafia thread, esp. I wanna see iGrok's reaction to getting accused/getting lynched lol | ||
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