EPTI am totally new to this game and while I did read the rules, you will have to excuse me if I am not too good at the game.
I do hope we all have fun though!
Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia II
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
I am totally new to this game and while I did read the rules, you will have to excuse me if I am not too good at the game. I do hope we all have fun though! | ||
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prplhz
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Anyway I agree that we should at least for the time being consider this to be 3 goons v 6 townies as we have absolutely nothing to base any real decisions off. | ||
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prplhz
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But really, I don't think that people should blame anybody too much after the first 10 posts 'cause there's no real basis for it. | ||
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prplhz
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Right now I am mainly suspecting Mataza, mainly because of something that Mataza said early on: On May 16 2011 12:52 Mataza wrote: I think I overestimated my town  Now this statement could very well be benign but it is doing two things: degrading the town to diminish people's confidence in their ability to play this game (overestimate) making them more susceptible to get influenced by someone (himself) and setting himself up as a "leader" of the town (my town). I do not know why Mataza is trying to set himself up as a leader of the town but there are two scenarios: 1. He's a scum: He wants to control people and mislead them to vote for innocent people and keep the mafia save. 2. He's a townie: He wants to control people and lead to to vote for guilty scum and keep the town save. Either way he is trying to be a "leader" of the town and this in itself is bad. A town should never have a leader and should instead have people thinking very independently forming their own opinion, this should happen through discussion and activity of course. Mataza is very savvy and probably knows that having a leader is not good for a town, so why is he trying to set himself up to be one? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. Now stuff that might talk against this: First: Mataza is actually not pointing fingers at anybody, I think we should be very careful if he ever decides to "lead" "his town" to vote for someone. Second (as pointed out by Mataza himself): If he is trying to lead this town as a scum would lead it we would quickly find out (we would lynch innocent people). And since we can afford losing people, trading a townie (guy Mataza would want to lynch) for a scum (Mataza) is really a good deal for the town. Maybe he is setting himself and the mafia up for mid/late game? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. Other than that I think that all the debate around Mataza is hurting the town (we are not talking about someone else). So to stop this I am going to talk about someone else: VisceraEyes and GiygaS It is very hard for me to argue against VisceraEyes and GiygaS because I am also suspicious of Mataza. This is very hard because, while these two guys have been on Mataza's back the whole time they claim that it has been for the sake of activity. This has worked alright since these three guys are arguably the most contributing players in this game right now so their claimed plans have worked out well. But why are they not directing any of this activity against each other? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. This gets even harder to analyze because there are two of them and thus several scenarios: Two townies being suspicious of someone? Two scums targetting an innocent townie? Or maybe the hardest scenario to deal with, one of each. I'm not going to go in depth with these scenarios, I will only present my initial conclusion: If they are scum they are not thinking long term, if they are mixed they will turn on each other, if they are townies ... Well as I said, I am also suspicious of Mataza  A final note on nard (something that Mataza cleverly pointed out too, removing some of my suspicions of him): On May 17 2011 02:25 nard wrote: i can imagine there are still some people thinking about what they could include in their first post which is not completely trivial - took me a while as well :p While this might be a whole new game for everybody it should not be hard for an innocent townie to write a simple "hello" post. Maybe nard is having a hard time writing his first post because he is a scum with a hidden agenda and then he is thinking that everybody else is having a hard time too? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
I see that people have started voting now, around 16 hours before deadline. This is not good people. Unvoting is very suspucious and there is still plenty of time for people to provide material to analyze. Of course some claim to do it for the sake of discussion but I still think that this is very bad. In addition to this I do not think that any of these votes are currently well founded, they are wild accusations at best. I also think that it is bad that people have removed focus from Mataza. While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control. He is very active and has agreed to answer every question directed at him. These are very useful qualities for town to find in a player, no matter if he is scum or townie. We should have tried to use these qualities to hunt scum. I would love to have waited with this post until GiygaS next post but lets just go ahead and do some analysis. I do not think that Mataza is harmful for this town just yet. He is under control so far, I would like him to be more harmful for the Mafia though. So I ask this: @Mataza : With the information available to you now, who would you lynch if you should lynch the player you think is most likely to be Scum? So I'm going to go ahead and do something that VisceraEyes has done several time. Point fingers at some random person for the sake of discussion. And this random person is going to be VisceraEyes himself. Some reasons (so it's not entirely random who I am pointing fingers at) for this: 1. He was the first person who point fingers at others. While he might have done this for the sake of discussion, I think that mostly scum would do this early on in the game. Townies would consider how the other person might be a townie and how unfounded accusations might harm the town, even if you made it clear that they are unfounded. 2. He is often analyzing his own actions. This is something I think you would (should) mainly do when you are scum. There is nothing to fear as a townie, only thing you have to consider is how the town can benefit the most from your actions. While we would all like to survive this game I think this is done best by being honest and only analytical of the actions of potential scum. 3. He has just something I would deem crazy to do if you were a townie. He suddenly said "this guy I have been bashing all game long, maybe he's not scum so I'm just gonna vote for someone and provide very limited rationale for this". This is not only very scum-like in my eyes, it is also harmful to the town. @VisceraEyes : Do you think that it is beneficial for the town that you suddenly make a 180 in letting Mataza off the hook and go full force against stefftastiq? Another player who has struck me as harmful to the town is Palmar. He has recently used some very questionable rhetorics to defend Mataza, and while it might be good that Mataza is not lynched, questionable rhetorics are always harmful to town. But on the other hand he also appears to be a very strong player who the town can make good use of later on, so maybe it is just a question of getting him under control @Palmar : Why do you think Mataza is "innocent as a newborn baby"? Gutfeeling is not an acceptable answer Think that was it for now. I will try to vote around 4 hours before deadline. Finals notes on what I think all townies should currently be aware of: Lurking townies make it possible for scum to play lurker style too. I think everybody should get up and post some analysis, if you are a townie this is absolutely the best thing you can do. We still missing a couple of you but this is making the game very much harder for town! I would consider any of the prospective modkills (Skrammen, Wunder) showing up in the nick of time to cast crucial votes for the lynching VERY suspicious. Even if they decide to show up now I think they will be very harmful to town if they don't post a lot in a very short amount of time. It is very good to have people under control; the more they post the more we can ask questions and the more we can make ourselves sure that someone is scum/townie. We will probably have two modkills but maybe it will be beneficial to town to lynch one of the least active players, to set an example, to make the game more fun, to maybe hit a lurking scum! Oh yeah and GiygaS; my nick is "purple haze" without any vowels or spaces | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
Hi, could you please, in a very short while, provide A LOT more content for us to analyze? I was kinda hoping you would get modkilled. | ||
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prplhz
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So I'm asking everybody (and that include you, person who is reading this now) to post who they would like to get lynched on day2 in case they themselves will get assassinated during the night. I think that I might be a target (hoping for a cute nurse to help me out though!) so this is probably quite relevant. This will be great for town, we can have you analytical skills readily available for day2 even if you get killed during the night! So let me say that I've cracked down a bit on the active people, but in the end I think I am going to vote for an inactive player because the evil you don't know is far more scary than the evil you do know! This will most likely only be for day1 though and I'm sure the scums already know that. So if they eliminate me it will be because they might be afraid that I will try to rally people to kill off someone who I think is a scum, and who is active. People who fit this description according to my posts so far are VisceraEyes and GiygaS, I said that if they turned on each other they would most likely be one scum, one good guy. So if I happen to get mafia killed on first night I think these are people you should really watch out for, but probably only one of them is scum! So what about you people, if you had to write a testament to the town today, what would it say? And by the way, I am going to write a vote post in around an hour, so it will be up before two hours. ((OOC: Oh and Palmar, no hard feelings about the "idiot" thing  )) | ||
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prplhz
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##Vote Skrammen Reason for this is that he just comes in 8 hours before day1 ends, casts and vote with 2 paragraphs of resonable and does not respond to our pleas that he post some more content. I am going to be honest with you and say that maybe he's not the one who is most likely to be scum but I think he's the most harmful for the town right now. If I should have voted for most likely to be scum I would vote for VisceraEyes for reasons I have already stated. Also his latest post is not really convincing me of anything else either. To answer the post VisceraEyes just made, the one that was mainly about me; No I don't control anybody Other than that I can't seem to find anything in your post I should need to comment on because mostly you're just saying that you disagree with what I said. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
##Vote Skrammen | ||
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prplhz
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@VisceraEyes I don't think that I did an 180 comparable to yours. You were much more vocal against Mataza than I was against anyone and then you suddenly make a vote against someone, with the rationale "this is for drama". I was never very vocal in my accusations, and my vote is accompanied by more rationale, and supported by stuff I had said earlier on "I think it is better to vote for inactives that supposed scum because there are so many townies". @Palmar Yea I'm sorry about that actually. That was totally unnecessary. I think I wrote it because I want to participate in this game, and I am very sure I am right in my opinions (that's why I put so much effort into my posts, because I think my opinions are worth it), and with a good read on this game the mafia might just target me. And I don't want to get killed, I'm just getting started here! Anyway, any nurse should of course make his/her own opinion on who to protect. But you are very right, that was actually very stupid of me to disguise a plea for help as a joke. And then of course there's the 3rd scenario of me being scum, don't forget that! | ||
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prplhz
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@VisceraEyes If you don't plan on playing I hope you will quit it so we can get a replacement. In the unlikely event that this somewhat odd statement is just to create drama and more posts, I do not think that it will work and I don't even think it is necessary even if it will work. | ||
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prplhz
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Did you just read all 8 pages of posts ...... in 6 minutes? (the time from your first post to your vote) | ||
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prplhz
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##Unvote Skrammen ##Vote GiygaS My rationale: The whole "vote for skrammen" thing was never about him being scum, it was about him being inactive and voting out of the blue. I think that we are going to have a lot better read on VisceraEyes, Mataza and Skrammen if we flip GiygaS, while flipping Skrammen will really give us nothing. Inactive players have hopefully learned their lesson. Also I think it is very awesome that everybody voted, but it would be more awesome if everybody posted regularly too! If he does not flip red I think the VisceraEyes is the best bid for a scum next time. I'll probably be unavailable for the next 24 hours by way, and also for the first part of day1 but I will be here to answer questions just not to provide analysis. | ||
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prplhz
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prplhz
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prplhz
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Before you might be scum-killed On May 18 2011 11:08 VisceraEyes wrote: @prplhz I had no desire to change my vote until your 11th hour scum-switch. What was that about? Why did you want to change your vote after my "11th hour scum-switch"? Who did you want to change your vote to? I am very curious abouts this. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
So you did not consider that it might be quite obvious that you voted for GiygaS to disguise your own scummyness but knowing that he would not get lynched. And then when I did my "11th hour scummy" change of vote you noticed it too late and accidentally contributed to lynch a fellow scum? | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
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prplhz
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Your first post after I changed my vote was 3 minutes after the deadline, so no, you did not have time to change your vote. And yes, that is exactly what I am saying. You have already acted silly out of frustration by directly refusing to actively participate in the game anymore. I so not consider it unlikely that my change of vote frustrated you even more as you were too late to change your vote yourself. And really, even if you HAD changed your vote, if Skrammen had flipped green, something I consider very likely, you would have looked even worse. Now people should ask themselves, in all this frustration, is it not possible that you posted something that might give everybody a clue on your allegiance in this town? Your defense is basically "Do you really think I'd do something that rash and incriminating?", and I have to say; there may be a good chance that you would. Again, people, I'm not saying that VisceraEyes is a scum, but I am going to encourage everybody to put pressure on him tomorrow. He may break again. | ||
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prplhz
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I'm headed to work and I will not be back for around 12 hours. But I know what'll be on my mind all day | ||
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prplhz
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I'd like to do some analysis of how votes were cast last night. Times are in KST, first player is voter second is votee, -> () is unvote. So here we go: + Show Spoiler + 18:01 VisceraEyes -> stefftastiq 18:59 Palmar -> DeepBlue2 19:54 DeepBlue2 -> GiygaS 01:00 Mataza -> GiygaS 01:39 VisceraEyes -> () 02:48 Skrammen -> GiygaS 07:25 GiygaS -> Skrammen 07:35 prplhz -> Skrammen 07:51 VisceraEyes -> prplhz 09:01 VisceraEyes -> () 09:01 VisceraEyes -> GiygaS 09:05 Karshe -> Skrammen 09:48 hiro protagonist -> Skrammen 09:56 Wunder -> Skrammen 09:58 stefftastiq -> GiygaS 10:08 nard -> Skrammen 10:55 prplhz -> () 10:55 prplhz -> GiygaS 11:00 Voting ends First I want to say that while scum might have voted for GiygaS, I am sure that his demise was never intentional. After GiygaS was lynched it was 9-2 in favor of town, and if the scum had tried to kill someone who had gotten nurse protection, it would have been 9-2 at dawn on day2. This is not very favorable for scum. This is why I am exonerating VisceraEyes. He cast the 4th vote on GiygaS at a time when Skrammen had only 2 votes. If VisceraEyes was scum it would not be good to put his fellow scum in such a dangerous position. You might say "Well at that point there were 5 votes missing, maybe he thought that in the event that GiygaS would almost get lynched he would do an 11th hour scum switch and send Skrammen home" but then he would almost certainly have been doomed himself the following day. Another thing to note is that Palmar's last post before voting ended was at 9:18, at a point where GiygaS had 4 votes to Skrammen's 3. Palmar had been very critical of inactives all game at this point and he might have said "Okay I'm going to switch my vote from DeepBlue2 to Skrammen because I want an inactive to get lynched and Skrammen has more votes already" and it would have been in line with everything he had said so far. Hell, in that last post of his he even says that Skrammen is bad for town but he does not change his vote. If Palmar is scum why did he not do this, greatly helping to prevent an, at that time, impending lynch of GiygaS? Before next paragraph I'd like everybody to know that I was roleblocked during the night. This means that the mafia has as roleblocker and that town either has Doc+Cop or all townies. Scum knew that all along, now everybody knows. Now on to Mataza. To everybody's surprise this guy was not scum killed. I say that there are two reasons why this might be; either scum were afraid that he was gonna get nursed, he made several pleas during and they did not want to risk their night kill. After all that would put them at a 9-2 disadvantage which would be very bad. The other possibility is that Mataza is scum, and while the scum could have tried to kill Mataza and hope for a nurse save, that would have been very ballsy and I think that scum are playing it safe now. Mataza's voting pattern is that he put his vote for GiygaS to make it 2-0 which is a very risky move if he is scum. Now if Mataza is scum I'd say that the scum played very risky on day1, and after getting burned very hard and putting themselves in a terrible position I'd assume that during the night they would agree to play very safe and also I would think that while staying with their personality their roles in the game will probably change to accomodate for their new safe strategy. If Mataza is scum, did they start playing very safe during night1? Did they play risky during day1? Now lets start at day1. If Mataza is scum they played very risky during day1. Most important thing that happened during day1 was the trial of GiygaS. Mataza giving him the second vote was very risky indeed but it would have paid off immensely if town would lynch somebody else. I suspect that Mataza as scum might have advocated this to his fellow scums because he seems very savvy and apparently considered everybody noob in the beginning. So if Mataza is scum, scum plans looked like this in the beginning: We gonna impress the town first and see where the game goes. The game went in the direction of "lets lynch inactives" which fitted well into scum plans, Mataza in his fourth post even said that "it's not a bad idea to lynch them". I'd say if Mataza is scum, scum played risky on day1 and I think that fits with how Mataza appears; savvy and underestimating the town. Lets see what has happened since dusk day1 and if Mataza is scum, was it safe?. Very most important is that Karshe has been killed. This is a very safe kill for the mafia as nobody expected them to target him. Mataza spent most of the night begging nurses to protect him. If Mataza is scum he was obviously trying to make himself appear more townie by being very afraid of his life, so the question is, did he overdo this? Mataza asked for something that would probably have been given to him anyway, and he asked for it several times in his night posts. I'm also somewhat curious about Mataza's intended risky play that would be of great good to this town, especially because it is very long term. He promises us a scum if we do two lynches for him. Does not sound like a bad deal at all, and if Mataza is townie he will probably still be very high on the mafia hitlist, so why not immediately risk his already fragile existence for a guaranteed scum lynch? If Mataza is scum though he might try to lead us to two town lynches, which would bring us to 2v5 after night3. This is a risky, but LONG TERM risky. Short term I'd still consider it very safe play if Mataza is scum. Some of these arguments came out in the wrong order but I'm done writing now :D I'll post more analysis tomorrow but for now I FoS Mataza and I am very curious to see his defense and what his cool plan might be. I'll probably be here for some hours for any questions | ||
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prplhz
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prplhz
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Right, Karshe got killed and I got blocked. We either have Doc+Cop or we have vanilla town. The scum has known this all along. Now Imagine this. Scum tried to block townie. Why on earth would they do that? Only makes sense if they are trying to do some mind games, but would it not be better to block someone other than me? Someone who is townie but who is acting scummy? Now imagine this: Scum tried to block Doc. If I am doc would their blocking me have helped in their assassination of Karshe? Not likely, I do not think I ever even mentioned Karshe before he was killed so why would they think I would try to save him? So scum tried to block Cop? What are your thoughts on this? | ||
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prplhz
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I just want to clarify that what GiygaS said after his lynching should NOT be considered by anybody as evidence of anything. The game ends when you die but as the rules state you can make a GG post and that's what GiygaS did. On May 18 2011 13:07 GiygaS wrote: GG everyone. Almost had you It is very unfortunate that he did not stop his sentence 3 words and a smiley earlier but I am sure that he did not mean anything by it. I'll post more analysis later but I'm always up for questions directed at me. | ||
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prplhz
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You're gonna have to explain what you mean by 'Visceraness'. | ||
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prplhz
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Uh his risky secret plan appeared to be very poor and he apparently assumed stuff that was not true. Palmar tore it apart and now he's suddenly on a crusade against me. I don't really know honestly, but I am not too worried. Even if he succeeds, which I very much doubt, the mafia is gonna have a very hard time. I think that 'Visceraness' is a good word to describe what he's doing right now. It almost seem like he's panicking. | ||
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prplhz
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prplhz
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On May 20 2011 11:29 Mataza wrote: That´s the most recent of prplhz lies. So what other lies are you talking about? | ||
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prplhz
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@Viscera At this time last day, we only had 4 votes if we don't count your stefftastiq vote. I don't think you should worry too much. I'm gonna vote around 3-4 hours before deadline as I did day1 (and as I said I would do day1). This is in around 3-4 hours. If I am lynched today and I flip green you should lynch Mataza on day3, no matter what kind of defense he puts up. After that I would look at hiro protagonist and nard, one of which will probably be the last scum. If I flip red then you will obviously be in a good spot. I'll be happy to answer any questions but I'm not going to directly respond to any of Mataza's accusations unless someone else directly requests that I do. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
One controlling many is bad. Many controlling one is good. Everybody having each other under control is very good. That's how I see it. You even highlighted it in your post: While he might not be scum this town has him very much under control. The keyword here being "town". Town is many. Town controlling someone is good. I also gotta say I find it really weird that DeepBlue2 is voting for me out of the blue and threatening Mataza that if I turn out to be green he will go after him. If I am lynched and DeepBlue2 does not throw his vote at Mataza one hour into day3 it is going to be very suspicious. I also think that it is weird that DeepBlue2 does not care the slightest about my defense he just rushes into voting for me. | ||
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prplhz
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As I said before I don't really want to answer questions from you. If anybody else feel like asking me anything I'll answer them of course. Since we're around though I think that we should consider what happens if the other dude is lynched and he flips green. What do you think would be the best thing for town to do during night2 and day3 if I'm lynched and I flip green? | ||
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prplhz
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##Vote Mataza | ||
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prplhz
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I'd explain myself towards your analysis right now if anybody had any interest in it but apparently noone does. 90 minutes 'til dusk and we have like 4-5 votes missing? | ||
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prplhz
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And that's been one of the main reasons I have been confident that Mataza is scum. I think that since I posted that I think he's scum he's been acting very weird in his defense and in his counter accusations. I think that if he had remained more collected I would have had serious seconds thoughts by now, like I had day1. But I just think he panicked a lot and VisceraEyes kinda reaffirmed that for me and this is going to be terrible if it turns out that he's green but for some reason not keeping himself together. | ||
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prplhz
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@stefftastiq Weird timing for doing something that has no effect on the game at all | ||
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prplhz
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GG - Regardless of your soon to be announced role it's been fun playing with you! | ||
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prplhz
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Day1 votelist: + Show Spoiler + 11:00 Day1 starts 11:00 Day1 Half way through 18:01 VisceraEyes -> stefftastiq 18:59 Palmar -> DeepBlue2 19:54 DeepBlue2 -> GiygaS 01:00 Mataza -> GiygaS 01:39 VisceraEyes -> () 02:48 Skrammen -> GiygaS 07:25 GiygaS -> Skrammen 07:35 prplhz -> Skrammen 07:51 VisceraEyes -> prplhz 09:01 VisceraEyes -> () 09:01 VisceraEyes -> GiygaS 09:05 Karshe -> Skrammen 09:48 hiro protagonist -> Skrammen 09:56 Wunder -> Skrammen 09:58 stefftastiq -> GiygaS 10:08 nard -> Skrammen 10:55 prplhz -> () 10:55 prplhz -> GiygaS 11:00 Voting ends Day2 votelist: + Show Spoiler + 11:00 Day2 starts 19:18 VisceraEyes -> Palmar 21:11 Palmar -> hiro protagonist 09:51 Mataza -> prplhz 11:00 Day2 Half way through 21:23 nard -> Mataza 23:11 Wunder -> Palmar 23:48 DeepBlu2 -> prplhz 07:27 prplhz -> Mataza 08:26 hiro protagonist -> Mataza 09:48 Skrammen -> Mataza 09:49 stefftastiq -> prplhz 10:44 VisceraEyes -> () 10:44 VisceraEyes -> Mataza 10:53 stefftastiq -> () 10:53 stefftastiq -> hiro protagonist 11:00 Voting ends Some facts about the voting: Of the 5 people who voted for Skrammen on day1; GiygaS and Karshe are gone, hiro protagonist and nard voted for Mataza on day2, Wunder voted for Palmar on day2. Of the 6 people who voted for GiygaS on day1; Mataza and DeepBlu2 voted for prplhz on day2, Skrammen, VisceraEyes and prplhz voted for Mataza on day2, stefftastiq voted for Palmar on day2. Of the 1 people who voted for DeepBlu2 on day1; Palmar voted for hiro protagonist on day2. People whose votes got somebody lynched on both days (lynching one scum and one townie): hiro protagonist, nard, Skrammen, VisceraEyes and prplhz. | ||
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prplhz
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Okay that's not right, only Skrammen, VisceraEyes and prplhz got somebody lynched on both days. | ||
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prplhz
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+ Show Spoiler + Link On May 18 2011 09:50 Wunder wrote: Hey guys! Sorry I've been so inactive, didn't know the game moved so fast I'm reading through the pages now, so I will edit this post to cast my vote.+ Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 09:56 Wunder wrote: Wow, looks like I got in just under the clock. Whew. I haven't played forum mafia before, and I've only played the SC2 mod of it, but that seems to take a few rules from F11's version and adds some new roles in it too. But I generally dislike having a lynch day one, although it seems to be mandatory, so I'm going to go with the safer option here and vote for ##Vote: Skrammen + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 10:00 Wunder wrote: I think there's one hour? Good thing I woke up early today. His two first posts came 1 hour before deadline on day1. Judging from their timestamps he apparently read through 8 pages of posts in 6 minutes. The only posts inbetween his first two posts are; one from Karshe saying "welcome" and Mataza commenting on him arriving just in the nick of time. Analysis I think his false claim to having read 8 pages of posts in 6 minutes is so blatant that he is not trying to trick us. I think he just doesn't want to say "Hey everybody, I'm gonna bandwagon because I didn't put any effort into this game at all so far" because that would pretty much ruin the fun for everybody else. So I really think he showed up late. In the third post he correctly answers the question "when do we have to vote?". I don't think there's a real scum-tell here so he'll get the benefit of the doubt. + Show Spoiler + Link On May 18 2011 18:18 Wunder wrote: Hi! Sorry, can dead people still post? Probably not, right? Anyways, sorry for the wrong vote - decided to go with the safer vote rather than have a bunch of suspect innocents. I'll hopefully participate more tomorrow! Just to clarify, we can PM anyone here right? To have like secret conversations? This post was made 7 hours into night1. One of our awesome and lovely hosts GMarshal promptly answers his question. Analysis You could say that Wunder was only wondering about this because he really did not know about this. I think that if he was scum it would be very likely that one of his scum companions had already PM'd him so in that case he should have known. I think this is a slight townie-tell. + Show Spoiler + Link On May 19 2011 19:52 Wunder wrote: I may have stepped too deep here, the level of analysis is quite mindboggling. I'd love to contribute, but I'm not sure how or where to start, even after reading a lot of the newbie guides... One thing that can be said though is that VisEyes, Palmar and Mataza are all very active, and I do believe at least one of them is Mafia. Sadly, I don't have much proof and I'm not sure how all of you guys have to time to sift through and analyze everyone's posts :< what does FoSing someone actually do, other than make your suspicions more concrete? I will try to monitor this situation more, but I think a lot of my opinions are siding with VisEyes right now, though I'm not sure why. + Show Spoiler + On May 19 2011 20:00 Wunder wrote: @Palmar: But what does that entail? Does it just mean that everyone knows you think that X is mafia? Is that all it does? Also, I agree with VisEyes that all his calls, though a bit irrational, are somewhat based from the information in front of him. I do think that purplehaze could be suspicious, and that him and the other mafioso turned GiygaS in, in an attempt to throw a few people off their tail. I currently have my eye of both Palmar and PurpleHaze + Show Spoiler + On May 19 2011 20:17 Wunder wrote: @Nard: pretty nice post, and... pretty bad pun I agree somewhat with your analysis, however I doubt a lot of the inactive people would be mafia, especially since reading the newbie guide one would assume mafioso to be active, rather than inactive. + Show Spoiler + On May 19 2011 20:30 Wunder wrote: @Palmar: Oh. Ok That makes sense then. FoS on Palmar and PurpleHaze@VisEyes: I agree. Palmar's argument and evidence against you have been somewhat shakey, though I'd have to go through and analyze it word for word >< These posts were made 9-11 hours into day2. Within 3 hours before both VisceraEyes and Palmar had posted some very comprehensive analysis with VisceraEyes FoS'ing Palmar and I quite heavily, Palmar somewhat calmly defending us both. Before the 3rd post in this series nard posted some analysis of hiro protagonist, DeepBlu2, me and Palmar, mostly suspicious of DeepBlu2. Analysis He is continuing his newbie/bandwagon act. In his second post I think it's worth noticing that he is using the phrase "information in front of him". This sounds a lot like he knows about WIFOM. If he knows about WIFOM then how can it be that he asks silly questions about FoS? Both terms should be easily google-able anyway yet he goes out of his way to ask about it on the forums. Seems like he might be going out of his way to inform everybody that he is newbie and that he does not have too much time for this game. + Show Spoiler + Link On May 20 2011 16:05 Wunder wrote: Wait, so what's happening here? PurpleHaze is claiming he got roleblocked and so we have a potential roleblocker and with that, either 8 vanilla townies, or 6 vanilla townies, 1 doctor and a Detective. Mataza is claiming he knows who the doctor is because of 'observational skills'. I doubt a mafia would openly expose himself to such a thing as the only guarantee he'd know is if he was a mafia and one of them roleblocked the doctor, thus sealing the only way Karshe could have survived. Am I right in this analysis? o-o + Show Spoiler + On May 20 2011 16:06 Wunder wrote: Also, when do we have to vote? + Show Spoiler + On May 20 2011 23:11 Wunder wrote: Aha, this is something important that hadn't been addressed. If mafia were apart of the offvoter group, why would they narrow it down further by killing off an innocent offvoter? That doesn't mean that all offvoters are suddenly innocent, but it does make it a somewhat level playing field. Unfortunately I won't be able to stay up to read the rest of the day's discussion, so I'm going to have to bandwagon again. The 4 votes already cast are all over the place, but I think there's one person here that currently stands out relative to the other active posters. ##Vote: Palmar These first two posts were made 19 hours before deadline day2. The third was made 12 hours before deadline day2. Analysis These posts are the first of his with any real content. He's very vaguely claiming that Mataza is innocent and asking a question to which he probably already knows the answer, as he's posted it before. In the end he votes for Palmar with close to no reasonable. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 21 2011 11:41 Wunder wrote: Ah fuck. The people who voted for Mataza didn't really think of the implications. What does this achieve? That the doubters of Mataza are now all possible mafia? + Show Spoiler + On May 21 2011 22:00 Wunder wrote: you dun goof'd. + Show Spoiler + On May 22 2011 09:31 Wunder wrote: Hmm, I don't have time to do the analysis, but I'll say this much, looking at the votelist from two days ago as well as the general back and forth in the posts, I have a heavy FoS on Prplhz. This is due to the fact that he swung the vote against GiygaS, meaning the third scum convinced him to let GiygaS go as he wasn't a great scum player. This is backed up by his vote against Mataza, who tried to come up with a plan to expose at least one scum in the process. Unfortunately it was stopped by a starting vote by nard, and then followed by Prplhz, hiro, Skrammen, and most importantly VisceraEyes. Now Vis, why did you suddenly change your vote from being so adamantly against Palmar? These posts are from 40 minutes after deadline day2, 11 hours after deadline day2, and 22 hours after deadline day2. Analysis First post here appears to be a townie flustered with the lynching of a townie. Second post is not worth my attention :D Third post is another bandwagon as well as somewhat shallow analysis. Conclusion I do not think there is anything overly suspicious about this guy. He genuinely appears to be somewhat new at forum mafia. His analysis is short and shallow and he hasn't really attracted too much attention so far. Either he's a very good scum or a not too great townie (sorry dude ). I'm gonna go with the latter. | ||
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Apparently nard wasn't accusing Wunder of anything btw :D But I only noticed that half way through my analysis and then I thought "what the hell, lets just finish this up". | ||
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Link + Show Spoiler + On May 17 2011 02:02 hiro protagonist wrote: good morning team. first timer here. I agree, this is off to a good start. there is no reason to suspect anyone right now, as there is very little to go on, so its a little wait and see I agree with VisceraEyes, its important to ask alot of questions. I will want clarifications on posts I find suspicious, and please do the same for me!Link + Show Spoiler + On May 17 2011 02:58 hiro protagonist wrote: Its true that lurking round is a good place for scum to hide, as there is little evidence to indict them. how ever all but 3 of us have posted and I doubt that ALL of the inactives will be scum... best bet is a scum has already posted, so we should try to sniff em out! If we don't have a good lead by tomorrow, then we should ask the lurkers to step up and explain themselves... Posts from around 10-11 hours into the game. IIRC VisceraEyes and Mataza were going at it at this point with occasional input from GiygaS. Analysis No incriminating content so far because ... not really much content at all so far. The second post is on page 5, that means after about 2-3 pages of play and maybe it's a bit weird to think that we should just focus on the actives since there's not too much to go by. At this point there had been some accusations against Mataza by VisceraEyes and GiygaS and a couple of "hello" posts and a couple of "man, these inactives are a nuisance" posts and that was it. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 17 2011 12:23 hiro protagonist wrote: Ok, here are my thoughts so far, the first two people I gonna talk about are the ones i have the most read on/talked the most o far: VisceraEyes: He was the most active in the first few pages, with most of his post wanting simply for all active players to say hi. Also mentioning not to take suspicions of one another as a bad thing. I can agree with this line of logic, as it will foster a more friendly town, and get in on the scum hunting. His FoS of Mataza looks more like a call for discussion then an actual accusation. my worry is that he is almost TOO town, and is a likely prime hit for Mafia, unless of course he IS Mafia. Mataza: considered the most suspicious as of right now, and with good reasoning. His first post was one of feinting a cop role. and Has been very Defensive initially when VisceraEye ask a question. Then he points the finger right back at VisceraEyes. after that he claims that he "just wanted to see how you would react". However he made a good post about how he wants to talk about what everyone else thinks, and his post are in the vein of scumhunting (when his not busy defending himself). not sure what to think of him tbh. Next up GiygaS, nord, Palmar,: These 3 have the most posts with the least amount of Analysis. most likely town wanting to hang low or wait and see before going into to much discussion. GiygaS has done the most in getting discussion going, expesialy around what VisceraEye and Mataza have been saying. not alot to go on. prplhz: quite at first but then a solid post with good analysis. Deepblue, Steff, Karshe: still need to here more from them. deepblue has gotten in pretty late with just a one liner. gonna watch to see if he is gonna just slide under the modkill, as there are still some inactives, and is laying low(as in acting scummy) thats it for now. These posts from 10-11 hours before deadline day1. Analysis Seems to be very vague though, of the most active players so far, he is most critical of VisceraEyes and Mataza while somewhat letting GiygaS off the hook. He mentions nard and Palmar but never says anything about them. Is actually vaguely accusing everybody he talks about except me and GiygaS. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 09:05 hiro protagonist wrote: Ok, LOTS to go on here, gonna give my take on things: The General feeling for the first day started like this: the town began giving intro post that most had no content. the exception to this is of course Mataza, who kinda claimed Cop, and then retracted it.( I still do not like is explanation). the first three people to really get the ball rolling where ViscaraEyes, GiygaS, and Mataza. Of the three, I liked VisEyes approach the most, and Mataza's the least. but these 3 started talking, there still talking, and its leading somewhere. the way I feel about it is the longer they talk, the long one will slip up, and for me that does not make them A high priority lynch. Is one of them Mafia? man it sure looks like it. the next list of people include me: Hiro, Karshe, Palmar, Prplhz, and nard. Of this group, Prplhz and Karshe have had the most helpful post in my eyes. Palmar and nard mostly made some general post about the situation. Im leaving me out because thats a job for someone else. Where does this leave me? I starting to look at inactives to vote for. but which one? The only one I feel right now that would be an ok vote would be Skrammen, and heres why. the only post by Skrammen is one of agreeing with Mataza, apparently for no reason, ether he is a terrible Maffia, or a terrible townie. Mataza, I want to believe your town, but the way you go about playing just rubs me a bit. I LOVE that you are taking swings at people, but as soon as some one wants to have a disscusion, you ether turn your finger on them, or call them a Bandwaggoner. I also dont like that almost every defense you say "I just wanted to see how you would react." that might be true, but it leaves me with no read on you... what would we get if we voted Skrammen? if he flips town, we got a good reason to trust Mataza. If he flips scum, well, Mataza has some explaining to do... will decide in a bit, to give more inactives time to post From 2 hours before deadline day1. Analysis He's agreeing with me and Karshe who at this point are saying that we will vote for inactives. Karshe furthermore says that Mataza will be his pick for day2 lynch. He's again critical against Mataza but the most interesting thing he says is that if Skrammen flips town we have a good reason to trust Mataza. Mataza is voting for GiygaS at this point. If this means that if Skrammen is townie hiro protagonist is indirectly supporting a lynch of GiygaS on day2. If Skrammen is scum, Mataza would go free. With the knowledge we have now that Mataza is townie I think this is very townie behaviour displayed by hiro protagonist. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 09:08 hiro protagonist wrote: @VisEyes and while I was posting you say that Jez, I was on board with you Vis, but that's just a lame attitude... This is in response to VisceraEyes basically saying that he quits the game. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 09:48 hiro protagonist wrote: gonna stay with my line of logic, and vote skrammen. I cant believe more people are not on him given his VERY little content, and insta bandwagon vote. Best case scenario: town votes GiygaS, and he flips scum. We got reason to trust one another and the hunt is in full swing. worst case: GiygaS flips green, and we have lots of suspicions. Very good chance of Mafia breaking up trust and getting us to turn on one another. good no mater what: voting Skrammen. we get ride of a terrible player, and we get a possible read on Mataza. I chose this one. Eather way, Im happy with day one. ##Vote: Skrammen This is around 1 hour before deadline day1. Analysis At this point GiygaS has 4 votes and hiro protagonist is about to cast the 4th vote for Skrammen. He considers the situation where GiygaS is scum first. This may be a scum-tell as I think most people would probably write about the scenario they consider is most likely first. I don't think he is being fair in his evaluation of the boons of lynching Skrammen in favor of GiygaS. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 19 2011 07:56 hiro protagonist wrote: wow, drama drama :D I have some thoughts and ideas, but they can wait till dawn. Not much else to say, that hasn't been said. Lets see how the night unfolds This is 3 hours before deadline night1. The drama is many of us (me, VisceraEyes, Mataza, Palmar) of us discussing heavily even though we actually nailed a scum. Analysis I don't know why drama would warrant a ":D". Maybe it's the inner troll. He's also not at all afraid to get killed this night. I think these are slight scum-tells too. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 20 2011 05:19 hiro protagonist wrote: ok guys, slow down. We lynched a scum on the very first night. We have the upper Hand. im gonna read up on post and come back with a report. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 20 2011 09:08 hiro protagonist wrote: So looks like a lot of people are looking into me DeepBlu2: no I never gave a explanation into my vote after day1. I gave my reasons for the vote BEFORE voting. Something all good townies should do. I still stand behind that vote. Palmar, nord, and Skrammen have posted some anyalisis of me. All three analyises me equaly well in my opinon, and each draw up different conclusions! Palmar wants to lynch me whill nord thinks im a safe townie. Skrammen is unsure (thanks for steping into the game btw). I find this intriguing... One thing I will addresses (sense no one really asked me any questions), Is of my play being safe. true. I see no reason to not continue to do so. We got a scum day 1. we have the advantage. I am gonna keep on making my opinions heard, and any suspicion I have known. As for the rest of the game, my thoughts around Karshes death are like this: mafia does not know if we have a doc. It would be to risky to go Mataza in case the was one, because they cant afford a miss hit. they chose the next best thing; going for blue roles. they took a shot in the dark in hopes off hitting blue. And if they missed, well, It was very unlikely Karshe had a doc on him, so at least its a guarantee town kill. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 20 2011 09:24 hiro protagonist wrote: Mataza, I don't get what your plan would accomplish. Mafia can read it to. could you explain it better perhaps, or am i not getting it Link + Show Spoiler + On May 20 2011 09:42 hiro protagonist wrote: but then they kill the cop... the longer he stays under, the more reports he can do, the better for us These posts came 6 hours and 10-11 hours into day2. Analysis In the two first posts he is kinda trying to take responsibility for the day1 scum-lynch, even though he in fact voted for Skrammen and never accused GiygaS of anything. He ridicules attempts to analyse him without directly adressing them. I think these are scum-tells. The nightkill analysis in the last paragraph of the second post is quite straight forward and I don't think this is indicative of anything. In the two last posts he is very interested in what Mataza's blue role plan is about. And by very interested I mean, he has never asked anyone a question in this game before that point. This interest could be a result of him having a blue role. Maybe this is what Mataza meant by him knowing who the doc was. I think there could be another explanation but I'm gonna leave this up to hiro protagonist to answer. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 21 2011 08:26 hiro protagonist wrote: Ok, I am at work, so I dont have a lot of time to explain my vote, but here it go's: Mataza has been less then helpful day 2. there is so much scumminiss going on with his actions that i dont have time to point them all out. i will just point out a few. 1. He used his trust that he built with the town to try to get people to rolecall blue roles, and as everyone pointed out, thats a very bad idea for us, great for mafia, who are behind. 2. He wants to lynch prplhz. Really? the guy who's very last minute vote switch got us a scum lynch on day one in very dramatic fashion? 3. before prplhz vote switch, GiygaS was safe. This could have been planned between them both, with Mataza looking like a townie. Im gonna put my money on Mataza is S to the scummy ummy. ##Vote Mataza Link + Show Spoiler + On May 21 2011 10:06 hiro protagonist wrote: @ stefftastiq prplhz and I voted for different people. These post are from 3-1 hours before day2 deadline. His vote for Mataza put him at 3 to Palmar's 2, my 2, and a single vote on himself. The single vote on him was by Palmar. Analysis His vote was not an OMGUS as he provides somewhat sufficient reasonable. None of these reasons are original though as they had already been talked about in the game, so this is somewhat of a bandwagon. He also does not discuss why he is not voting for me nor Palmar who had just as many votes. Overall I think these are townie-tells. Link + Show Spoiler + On May 22 2011 02:33 hiro protagonist wrote: T_T Mataza, WHY??? it makes no sense to me for you to have acted the way you did... This was 3.5 hours after Mataza's lynching. Analysis An emotional outburst after a lynching. He also did this after day1 lynch. Conclusion I think I very much want to know why hiro protagonist was so interested in Mataza's blue role exposure plan. I don't think I can conclude anything before he gets back to us on this. | ||
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No you're actually the one I'm most sure about not being scum but I doubt that I will post an analysis concluding that. By the way, imagine that neither me nor Palmar are scum, who do you think has been acting most scummy then? | ||
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I think this is very weird because I'm like 98% sure that you're townie, and like 90% sure that Palmar is townie. So I think it is very weird that you're going at us like you are. But I've noticed that Palmar is clearly better at this game than I am and I want town to win so I'm gonna propose that you vote for me instead of Palmar, and then if I flip green you don't go for Palmar after me but instead work with him to find the remaining scum. This is not ideal as I'd like to be here all game but I think maybe it's the only way to convince you. And it's too late if you're convinced that you're not right AFTER you lynch Palmar because then I think town will have lost one of it's best players and that can't happen (again!). So I'd like you to consider either voting for me instead of Palmar and encouraging others to do so too, or to drop your silly crusade because as Mataza said before he died, Palmar is not scum. I might be but Palmar sure isn't. That's what he said VisceraEyes and I can find the quote if you don't believe me. | ||
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Analysis is for the living so I'm just gonna post a bit of everything here without really thinking about arguments. VisceraEyes: Emotional guy but I doubt that he is Mafia. His fervor can hardly be faked and no Mafia would act like this. I'm 99% sure that he is townie. Palmar: Analytical guy who will have been voting for 2 townies and one undecided after today. I am 80-90% sure that he is townie. If he does not go after hiro protagonist on day4 I think it is much more likely that he is scum. If hiro protagonist is nightkilled you should closely monitor how he and VisceraEyes react. Skrammen: Has 7 posts in this game so far. Mostly been bandwagoning without any real content in his posts. About 70% sure that he is townie. hiro protagonist: Has some more posts. In my analysis of him I delayed my conclusion until after he had answered my question (which he now has). About 25% sure that he is townie, that is 75% sure that he is scum. Wunder: Already posted my analysis on him. I'm about 60% sure that he is townie. Nobody noticed but I actually missed his latest post in my analysis so you can read that and make your own conclusions 'cause the rest of his posts are there. stefftastiq and nard: I don't know much about these guys. 50% sure that they are townies but also 50% sure that they are scum. Very undecided but a good scum in this game will have tried to stay under the radar. I did not do a thorough analysis of their posts and I doubt I will. Once I'm dead you will know for sure that I was actually twice roleblocked. If cop has anything conclusive and useful to report he should roleclaim during night3 and post his findings. The nurse should protect him during the night and then you should lynch cop on day4 to verify his findings. If nobody roleclaims I think hiro protagonist, stefftastiq and nard are most likely to be scum and I doubt that we will even have a cop/nurse. I will be voting for hiro protagonist today but I will not vote until 3-4 hours before deadline as on all the other days. I'll be here to answer questions until dusk. | ||
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I decided that maybe I should vote a bit later. Maybe this has put scum off. I noticed that Palmar considers me the "brain" of the mafia. I think this is a general trend in this game, if people notice someone who is either "great scum" or "bad townie" they're gonna go for the former even considering that this is a newbie game. I think we have "bad townies" and "decent scum" because I think it is generally easier to be scum than townie. Also I think stefftastiq and nard are quite scummy. They both made the final two votes during day1 and stefftastiq threw the only vote at GiygaS which could not at the time of voting have any influence. Skrammen was already at 6 votes and putting GiygaS to 6 too would not have any effect. nard threw the deciding vote in that, if he had voted for GiygaS then he would have gone home. Of course he could have voted for a third candidate but that's risky as hell and I doubt scum would do that. I think the remaining scum are two of hiro protagonist, stefftastiq and nard. Mentiond in order of scum-likelyhood. You still have one mislynch so use that carefully. ##Vote hiro protagonist | ||
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Hope to see you in many future TLMafia games and I will follow this game to the end for sure. Also thank you to chaoser for the daypost! Much appreciated that you guys voluntarily spend your time organizing mafia for noobs like me! | ||
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