TL Mafia XXXVIII

On April 13 2011 15:26 Protactinium wrote:
Alright guys, now that night is over, I have another announcement to make.

I checked Coagulation last night, and he is Mafia.

Now you may be asking, is Protactinium trying to pull a fast one on me? I thought Assassins couldn't use any night actions till Night 2!

I am, in fact, not an Assassin, as I may have led you all to believe Day 1. I am actually a Detective, and I've found you a Mafia member right from Night 1.

Now why would I claim Assassin Day 1 if I was actually a Detective? It was intentional, and all part of the plan. Unfortunately, I wasn't elected, but at least I had a backup plan. TL towns have a history of wanting to Lynch All Liars, but there is a very good reason that I didn't claim Detective from the start. Just look at Pandain to see why DT claims never work: it's been tried before, and Mafia have every incentive to fake claim DT. Thus, the claim backfired and the entire town jumped on him and tore him to shreds. Not a desireable outcome if you're really a DT, right? And this wasn't the first game where that happened. If you have time, go back and read TL Mafia VIII, where nemY the Detective claimed Detective... and then got jumped by town. I expected the same backlash had I actually roleclaimed Detective, so that's why I went with the Assassin claim. Furthermore, while Mafia are very incentivized to claim DT, they would be stupid to claim Assassin, since if the election bid fails, the actual Assassins will just shoot them Night 2. On the other hand, claiming DT is fairly safe for mafia, as after the intial backlash, the claimed DT will generally be ignored for the rest of the game. Assassin claims also help draw out the Mafia, and as the Pandain example shows, DT claims don't have the same effect, since everyone attacks the DT claim and causes chaos.

And if you're saying this is a bus and I'm Mafia, you wouldn't be saying that after I net a Mafia Night 2. And then Night 3.

The next question is assassin numbers. Remember how I claimed that there were 3 assassins? That was actually a ploy to keep the actual Assassins off of me. In terms of balance, all of the past games with assassins had assassins consist of roughly 10% of the total game population. In XXII, a game of 38 people, there were 4 Assassins, and in XXX, a game of 30 people, there were 3 Assassins. This game has 40 people, so assuming that Ver and Qatol helped BrownBear balance the game along the same lines as they did for me, there should actually be 4 Assassins in the game as well. Thus, my claim of there being 3 Assassins was a guess, but an educated one, in the hopes to keep both the guise of me being Assassin up and the actual Assassins off of my back.

Anyway, my plan successfully drew out the mafia. As I said before, mafia and assassins are desperate to stop my campaign, as an assassin in office would be a serious threat to both parties. Yesterday's vote clearly showed that mafia got panicky and overreacted when the vote was close and I had a chance of winning the election. Anyway, going back to my original list:


So why is Coagulation suspicious?

He is clearly pushing mafia objectives. As I have established before, Mafia doesn't want me anywhere near the Mayor/Pardoner positions. Guess what Coagulation has done? He opposed me right from the start. Then during the middle of the election when it looks like I had no chance of winning, he shut up and wasn't saying anything about us except for when he made a candidates list explaining what he thought of each candidate. Near the end of the day, however, when it looked like we had a chance of winning, Coag suddenly jumps on us and starts frothing at the mouth. He attacks me viciously, this time saying that I'm Mafia doing a not-so-last-minute vote switch and that the Assassin claim was just to garner votes. Seeing that the "he's assassin, don't vote for him" strategy didn't work, he tries to spread more fear by saying that I am Mafia. Then, when it seems like I have no chance of winning anymore, Coagulation disappears again.

He's silent during the time between DrH winning and Kav getting flipped, even though he was conveniently defending Kav strongly before this time. And guess what? Although Coag was adamantly against the lynch earlier and attacks the lynch right after it occurs, he is mysteriously silent right before the lynch and doesn't bother saving Kav at a moment where his arguments could be critical. This is completely consistent with Mafia objectives, as Mafia obviously would prefer that a known analyst is lynched over a random inactive. Rather than constantly trumpeting his position throughout the thread, he pops up in bursts, striking when mafia need it most, and then disappearing when things are going well. I got most suspicious of Coag right after the lynch. Look at when he is posting, and when he is not, and its obvious that he has a hidden agenda.

But that's not all. The whole game, he is useless and does nothing except spam and spread doubt on the mayoral candidates. The more interesting and important point though, is that he has an utter lack of conviction on who could be mafia. In particular, look at when Coag was yelling at DH not to lynch Kav. DH asked him for alternatives, yet he couldn't name a single name, just "any of the countless scummy lurkers". Compare this with his games as town, where he has no problem pointing out who he thinks is most scummy, and its pretty obvious that Coag is trying to hide the fact that he knows who the mafia are. Classic Mafia mentality, not wanting to have to point out scum and be accountable for it. Coagulation as green is fearless, posting every single thought that comes to his head as to who is Mafia. As DrH said at the end of Assassin In the Palace, Coagulation posts very frequently. This trend of trying to actively hunt down and call out Mafia as green goes all the way back to Haunted Mafia. As red, look at games like Insane 2 and Don't Lose Your Village. Coagulation is much more restrained and doesn't point out any reds with conviction like he does when he's town.

To sum it up, Coag is pushing mafia objectives. He had fierce opposition to my candidacy (mafia do not want a pro-town assassin in office), and conveniently posted at the right times. The whole game, he has been indecisive and is spreading doubt. Furthermore, he has not shown any conviction on who he thinks is Mafia, which is completely inconsistent with his town play, while he has no trouble pointing out who he thinks is innocent (GMarshal and Kavdragon). With all this evidence and my role check, there's no reason to vote anyone except Coagulation. GMarshal is suspicious too, but I'm not sure one way or the other. One thing is certain though: if he pardons Coagulation, they're both Mafia 100%.

Like I said, this party is only getting started. Mafia totally fell for my trap, so we are way ahead of where we would be otherwise.

Vote for Coagulation.