TL Mafia XXXVIII
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
I have an announcement to make. I am an Assassin. Give yourself a moment, and let that sink in. You may be thinking, "is this chump smoking something?" And you would be right. Alas, this profound post is not done out of insanity. Here's my offer: I get elected as Mayor or Pardoner (doesn't matter which one as I will explain below), and I give the town my rolecheck and 2 of my vigilante shots (saving the last to complete my win condition). How does this benefit me? Simple. I don't die because of the bodyguards. Meanwhile, the other assassins have a strong chance of being shot at night or lynched on accident, and this is good for both myself and the town, since it decreases hostile KP. Because I'm protected, I don't need to have all of my powers with these advantages. Now let's go through the possibilities, since I am sure very few of you are just going to believe me outright. 1. I am actually an Assassin. 2. I am mafia. You guys ask me to rolecheck on Night 2. Game over for me. Even if I guess it right, Mafia does not have extra KP this game, so extra shots can only come from Assassins/Vigilantes. Thus, this will be very obvious and a mafia will be sacrificed for nothing. There is zero motivation for me to do this. 3. I am some town role and on crack. Yay? Town wins. The only negative possibility to the town is, what if I get planted in office and don't cooperate? Well, then I lose since town will just lynch me next day. I have no incentive not to cooperate unless I am about to win the game, in which case town doesn't lose anything. Lastly, why did I do something as absurd as this? Why not? The Assassin role is boring, and this will surely make things interesting and let me make an impact on the game as a whole. I just need one shot to make sure I can fulfill my victory condition, and the town gets 2 KP, a rolecheck, and a person who they are 100% sure is not Mafia. Obviously, as I am Assassin, I have no obligation to help the town outside of my powers. However, I do have an interest in helping the town do well because it's fun. Assassin on its own is not fun. You don't have to believe me on what I'm saying. Take this as you will, but right now I'm making you an offer you | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 10 2011 13:24 GMarshal wrote: Protactinium I applaude your ballsy move, I however hate to have to condemn you to a painful death, since not having a townie as mayor hurts us, frankly the mayor and pardoner roles are extremely strong and we need them in the hands of the town. Also as an assassin you are likely to want to aim the lynch at other assasins. I offer you a counter deal, you put your kp/DT check at the service of the town and we will have medics protect you. Is as good as being the mayor, but it dosn't cost the town those roles. Still kudos for your balls of steel in making that claim I don't need to and I don't care to lynch other Assassins. I shoot them at night with my last bullet. As to your 'counter-deal', definitely no. Firstly, as some people have pointed out you aren't one hundred percent sure that we do have medics. While it would be slightly inane and ludicrous if we didn't, hosts have done weirder things. I'm pretty sure the last game I hosted (or was it the one before?) had naught but greens, one Vigilante, and three Veterans. And another game had no Detectives. Secondly, assuming we do have medics why would they waste their protection on non-town--i.e., myself? My third point (the case on the Pardoner) will be addressed below. On April 10 2011 13:25 tnkted wrote: Yeah I'm down with offering some medic protect on him but there is absolutely no way that we can give him the mayorship. As people have said multiple times, we need somebody who can be a good leader. People look to the mayor. He has a PM circle. If mayor isn't town the position is entirely wasted. On April 04 2011 01:06 BrownBear wrote: Mafia may PM each other. That's the only group that's allowed PMs in this setup unless I missed something. Also, can we please take the banlist discussion/dick waving elsewhere? Thanks. Only Mafia can PM each other. After this post there is no mention of any sort of correction. On April 10 2011 13:27 chaoser wrote: It's ballsy. He's probably Assassin so it all depends on whether we want him in office or not. We get 2KP and a role check. He gets to live until both bodyguards are dead. We don't get a proven leader/analyst protected. ##Vote Protactinium for now. That was ballsy as fuck. You've repeated this point in a later post, so I'll take the liberty of not responding to that one. For this one, I've already dropped a couple hints responding to GMarshal as to who I actually am. Once you figure out who I am, then you can judge if I'm qualified as a leader/analyst. On April 10 2011 13:28 GGQ wrote: If we are going with Protact, we should make him Pardoner, not Mayor obviously. We still get the valuable mayor role for town, and Protact has no motivation to use Pardoner powers unless town wants him to. When he wins the game, he leaves and all we lose is Pardoner power. It's a pretty good trade, I think. I support making him Pardoner. Pardoner is perfectly fine. Furthermore, let's analyze how elections have gone in past TL Mafia games--in a separate post located below this one. On April 10 2011 13:28 tnkted wrote: Hmm... On the other hand this would give mafia incentive to be hunting for assassins as well... question for the vets: in games with assassins are assassin targets typically reds or greens? ie, do most assassins act like classic red, with lurking and trying to avoid attention, or do they act like classic greens with analysis and debate? As the person who hosted the past two games of TL Mafia (TL Mafia XXII and TL Mafia XXX) where there have been Assassins/Ninjas, I can tell you that those chosen were pretty low-key for the most part, hiding to avoid detection. And that's what I was planning to do--before I decided to actually have fun this game. As I said before, obviously I don't have to help the town at all. There's no legal, moral, or ethical incentive for me to do so! Both XXII and XXX were devoid of elections, so there was no real reason for Assassins to stick up. Interestingly enough, Asssassins didn't really 'win' in either game. They were lynched (jpak (Day 1) in XXII, and Pandain (Day 2) in XXX), killed by Mafia (tree.hugger and AcrossFiveJulys (Night 2) during XXII), or shot by other Assassins (VayeshMoru and Bill Murray shot each other simultaneously on Night 4 of XXX). Above, I used 'win' loosely: RebirthOfLeGenD completed his win condition in TL Mafia XXII by being the last one alive... after two assassins had been killed by Mafia and the third by town. None of these seven Assassins/Ninjas attempted to be (actually) pro-town. So what do you get out of all this information? Well, you've learned now that Assassins do not actually have a fun time. You can't talk to anybody in PM games (which both XXII and XXX were) comfortably--and in this game you can't even PM. You can't affect the real outcome of the game--nobody cared (<3 Foolishness) when the Assassins died/were removed. So what's different about XXXVIII? There's elections. Hail Captain Obvious! As I said, I want to actually make an impact on this game, and have fun while doing so. Sticking to the shadows does not constitute badassery outside of fictionalized worlds like the universe of Naruto. On April 10 2011 13:36 Eiii wrote: Also once his two assassin buddies die off, he gets removed from the game-- and we lose our nice 3-vote mayor (or pardoner). Unless you actively lynch Assassins (who most likely are going to either keep quiet or try to act overly pro-town) or they are killed by Mafia, I don't complete my mission objective. I don't really care how long it takes: there are 40 people in this game with no extra Mafia KP and no hatters, meaning it's going to last quite a while. As demonstrated below in the secondary post, elected roles really are not that good for town (as in, they're favoring Mafia if past statistics have anything to show for it), so it's not that big of a loss, and since I'm not leaving till quite near the end, the effect of losing your Assassin elected role is even more negligible once Mafia numbers are low. On April 10 2011 13:59 Kavdragon wrote: Oh man, Protact, you just made my day. That was brilliant, but not quite thought through enough. The biggest problem, first and foremost, is that other assassins will be gunning for our body guards if you were Mayor/Pardoner. You may have two KP you are willing to lend us, but is it worth it if all the other assassins are going to be attacking townies because of it? Another problem is that putting you in the position of Pardoner OR mayor would give you information about the bodyguards, something that would be quite valuable to the mafia. Since your win condition is not the same as our, I don't think that it would be wise for us to trust you with that information. I loved the idea when I first read it, because I was thinking about how the assassins don't have a conflict of interest with the town, so it'd be great to get them working for us, but the problem becomes that we have to pick one of you to work with. That will set all the others against the town, and that counteracts the usefulness in a pretty big way. I'm glad I could make your day. If you're town-aligned, hopefully my antics will continue to do so as this game rolls on. Pleasantries aside now, let's get down to addressing your points. Yes, the other Assassins can try to hunt for bodyguards. However, they have one role check and three kills. Given that there are 40 people in the game, that's quite a bit of townies. And if Assassins are going to slice them up with their banhammers (wait hammers can't slice), then good luck to them in finding the other Assassins out there! This shouldn't "set them against the town" any more than it already would have. An Assassin laying low isn't going to try to act like a blue role (for most cases--not including ballsy moves), or else they'll draw the attention of the Mafia as well. It's no fun being gunned down by everybody! Who cares if I get the list? (Besides you--and I'm only answering this redundant question since it makes the rest of the paragraph parallel!) I'm not here to kill townies. Am I going to leak it? It's not in my interest to do so. Why don't you trust me? Who else would you trust? The potential Mafia that could be (and most likely will) winning an elected role? Me having the list is win-win. I know who not to check or shoot, thus sparing the lives of two townspeople, and you get to sleep comfortably knowing that Mafia do not know the identity of bodyguards. Also, let me point out something pretty small about my win condition: it in fact does overlap with yours (the town's). I can't win if either side wins the game first. Therefore, if Mafia get to the point where they are outnumbering the town or will inevitably do so, I've already lost. Yes, having less people means it's more likely that I'll be able to cap one of my competitors, but they can do the same to me. However, if Mafia numbers decrease (and they shall when I plug them full of justice) then town will have quite a good time. If there's two Mafia left and I complete my win condition with 10-15 town left, then you guys easily win after that. From this, we can deduce that the Assassin optimally should play more of a town-aligned role in order to maximize his winning chances. Since I hardly have fun playing Mafia anymore, I'm seizing the chance and taking it to the extreme. On April 10 2011 14:00 GMarshal wrote: ... And to all the people who are arguing that losing the pardoner is worth it I disagree, because frankly I dont trust having someone with a non town win-con in office, especially considering that the threat of the pardon basically stops last minute bandwagons from scum and makes last minute vote switches much scarier for the scumteam. ... By the time the Mafia members decide that it's time to do this, they'll already be in a commanding position. Furthermore, I'm not the biggest fan of lynching for information, but information is good for the town--and the Pardoner stops the flip. Let's not even get started on how a Mafia Pardoner (and let's be real here, a Mafia member has every advantage in getting elected since he or she has a cadre of friends to back him/her up) could totally slay the town. As of this post, I have read only up to the beginning of page 27. Will address anything needing addressing shortly after. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
AMW - Mafia Mayor, Town Pardoner TL Mafia V - Town got both spots. Mafia didn't send any candidates for office, and were the weakest mafia team in TL Mafia History TL Mafia VII - Mafia Mayor, no 2nd elected office. TL Mafia VIII - Town gets both spots. Mafia fielded 2 candidates and 1 traitor for office. Town eventually self destructs on Mayor/Pardoner controversy. Pyrr's Mafia Game - Town gets both spots. TL Mafia XII - Town is voted into office and is subsequently offed day 3. TL Mafia XV - Mafia Mayor, Town (Detective) Pardoner Red Army Mafia - 3rd Party in Office (whose goal is to survive) Town win. BC's TL Mafia XVI - 2 Townies in office Incog's TL Mafia XVI - Mafia Sheriff, Town Mayor TL Mafia XVIII - Medic Mayor, Mafia Pardoner TL Mafia XX - DT Mayor, Town Bus Driver Pardoner In 13 games 17 town-aligned roles, 6 Mafia roles, and 1 third-party role have claimed elected spots. However, numbers aren't everything. Some of these games (lookin' at you, Caller of the Red Army and AMW,which was normal, but aborted without finishing) are not considered normal--that is, in the same vein as the one we are playing right now--and thus are statistically less useful. Furthermore, take into account that [excluding XX, one of the most ridiculously imbalanced games for reasons stated below, XVIII, which was a dual town-Mafia victory, and V, another ridiculously imbalanced game] the question of "who won these election-oriented games" is still out there. As for that, there have been 4 town victories and 5 Mafia victories given relatively normal circumstances. Given the ratio of town-aligned electees and Mafia-aligned electees, I'd say something is wrong. Also, using Ver's post (link is below) and arbitrarily and quantitatively giving out point values (1 for close, 2.5 for solid, and 4 for overwhelming) for wins, town's average win score is 7/4 = 1.75 (1+1+2.5+2.5). Meanwhile, Mafia scores higher, sitting at 10/4 = 2.5 (1+4+1+4). Of course, these scores and values are contrived by myself, but the point stands: town being elected isn't always helpful. However, Mafia being elected is pretty devastating, given the numbers. And, again, that's why it's good to have me: I'm not Mafia. And most likely, I'm going to be more useful than any town player to the town. I cannot attest to the details of all games in question since I was either not part of TL Mafia at the time or just too lazy to read up on the game. I will, however, go over the ones that I remember/watched/participated in. Those games tend to be the more recent ones, which not only are more indicative of "recent" town play, but are also a testament to the shifting metagame (don't kill me Chill) of TL Mafia. Also, take into consideration that AMW, II, V, and VII had way more players than the games of today.
For the categorized list of TL Mafia games and the outcomes, look at Ver's post here. It's a bit out of date, but it makes for a good read into the history of TL Mafia. This was originally supposed to be part of the first post, but it became an entity of its own. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 10 2011 14:27 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I was thinking this earlier: -before this, assassins only have incentive to kill other assassins -now assassins have incentive to kill bodyguards -it means nothing to the town of protactinium is killed -we have no way to force him to use his powers in a pro-town way. are we really going to waste a lynch on him just because he won't hit who the town tells him to? so this basically shifts assassin KP against us, I've changed my mind. You have no way to force me to use my powers in a pro-town way anyway, nor do you have any way of forcing anybody to do so. You can threaten a lynch, but that holds true for everybody. At the very least, going against the town entices people to lynch me. If elected, lynch is the only way I can die, sans Bodyguard deaths. If I don't follow pro-town policy (I wanted Detective or townie but ended up with this instead) I risk death by the only way I can die. Why anger the only people (oxymoronic enough since it pertains to the entirety of the town) who can make me lose? On April 10 2011 14:28 urashimakt wrote: I don't think the other assassins (if they're wise) are going to be throwing KP at town. It just wouldn't be an effective way to achieve their win condition unless they knew who the bodyguards are, which they aren't going to. As far as giving a powerful green role to a black, I don't agree. He has no reason to pardon anyone that we wouldn't, as far as I can tell. He does, however, bring abilities to the table that I think are more powerful than the pardon. Really, I don't care about having three extra votes or a Pardon. How often is Pardon even used? Very very very very infrequently. As in, it's almost negigible. Knowing the identity of two townies (as in, two people not to shoot) is nice, but it's not a deal maker. I bring about two extra invincible vigilantes to the town, and effectively extend the life of the Detective squadron by one day as well. On April 10 2011 14:34 GMarshal wrote: Let me be utterly honest here if I were an assassin and another assassin got elected I would probably say "fuck this" and start gunning for townies out of frustration. Or worse, trying to help the mafia snipe the bgs so I could have a shot at my target. One way an assassin could do this is by detecting a BG with his DT ability and then giving out that information. And yes he has reasons to pardon someone who we would not, lets say the second place person in a vote is someone who he thinks is an assassin he'll happily pardon the first place to get the other person hanged, and potentially win. Also we have no way to make him use his abilities for us, lets say he uses his KP on whoever the fuck he wants, what are we going to do waste a lynch on him and give the mafia another free round of kills? No, more likely than not we'll say "damn you, shoot who we want" and let him live, because we cannot afford to waste a lynch. or if we do lynch him we helped the scum team, congratulations a true lose/lose situation This is a BAD IDEA, we want townies in power, not assassins who are out only for themselves. Why so angry? Are you mad that you didn't think of this idea? Just stop a moment and think about this: Why are you pushing so hard? Ignoring random probability, you're as likely Mafia as the next guy. Personally, I think you're black. Yet you haven't been honest to the town about it, so why should we want you in power? There's a good chance you're an Assassin. Given how much you're talking about them, it seems you're desperately afraid of allowing me into office, since that would mean you lose. If you're intending to actually be of some use to this town, you wouldn't given two cents about me beyond a couple posts. Also, no offense, but you aren't the best player, if XXXVII means anything at all (you're getting better, I'll give you that!). You're not all too high yet on my list of "people who I'd trust to do the job, and do it well". Stop whining incessantly about Assassins and start actually looking for Mafia. I wouldn't even want to talk about Assassins but cursorily if I didn't have to. By the way, I don't write these posts with any malice. I just think it's a more effective way of getting my point across than to just blabber on for hours about data and inferences and past things that matter. Oh, and one more thing: 2nd Place: PARDONER: You are the deputy mayor, but because the mayor is an asshole who hogs all the power, you don't really do much except for one thing: Once per game, you may choose to pardon the lynch target for that particular day. You may invoke the power at any time during the day cycle you choose, and no lynch will happen that day. You enjoy the same bodyguard-protection the mayor has. You are not immune to lynch, and if you are the lynch target, you may not pardon yourself. If you're so keen on running for the elected roles, might want to actually know what they can do. Your post is completely indicative of "town-aligned electees doesn't mean useful for town". On April 10 2011 15:05 Mr. Wiggles wrote: As others have said, I think voting a black in is lose-lose. There's no guarantee he'll do anything to really help us, and then we lose our mayor/pardoner. Also, as far as medicing him goes, I think we can just drop the discussion on that until Day 2. Assassins can't do anything night one, so unless mafia wants to hit him, there's no need to waste a medic on him. If he still wants to negotiate for kills later, then we can do that when he's actually in a position to kill. However, just to add to that quickly, he's actually useless to town if he's not mayor/pardoner, because if he says he's hitting a town chosen target, mafia can just RB him, because he's outed himself publicly. So, we don't want him in office, and he can't help us out of office. So, overall, I don't think he can help town much, besides giving all the other assassins a non-town target for night 2. Right now, I'm most comfortable picking either GMarshal or Dr.H for mayor. I've gotten the strongest town reads from them, and they've both shown they're not afraid of trying to look for scum and lead town in the right direction. ^ My thoughts. It's a good point you have about roleblocking. But consider this. I've spent so much time and effort now (alas, poor me!... not really) into making my 'campaign' for election. Remember that US Presidential election involving Jackson when the losing party was bitter? I sure do! Of course, being bitter isn't part of the game. We Assassins have no emotion, after all. Of course, if I don't get elected that leaves me in an interesting spot. I don't really want to play this role, so I wouldn't mind if I died. However, in essence of "playing the game" the optimal (though still not very good) strategy would be to ally with the Mafia. Obviously, if I lose the election, theres no way I can help town without dying. Assassins aren't bulletproof nor do they have extra lives in this game, so if I try to be pro-town, mafia will just shoot me or roleblock me, nullifying me completely. Thats 100% certain death for me. This means that I'm forced to ally with the mafia. And that's relatively easy for me to do. The terms are simple, they don't roleblock me or shoot me, and I don't analyze them or shoot them. Played correctly, Assassins aren't a huge threat to either Mafia or town, nor are they gamebreaking like a lategame SK. On April 10 2011 15:36 darmousseh wrote: Wow, Protactinium is either a genius or an idiot. Only time will tell, but for the sake of town, having a pro-town player ensures that we will have someone in the best interest of town the entire game, rather than having someone who might suddenly switch in order to make things in his favor. I do like the ballsy play and it's better than voting in a scum, but i don't know. Sounds like a dangerous idea. FoS Kav, This might just be a meta thing, but I am not getting a huge town vibe out of you. I'm guessing you are an assassin though since if you were scum you probably would be a little more vocal. I generally like gmarshal, but I hope someone else runs for the vice-mayor role as I don't know what to think of chaoser just yet. Gmarshal is definitely a great asset to town and should be kept alive and be given extra voting privileges. ##Vote: Gmarshal Well, I'd like to think I'm not an idiot, so that leaves... Wait, are you sure you're not pigeonholing this a bit too much? Perhaps I'm just bored. Standard Mafia games are all the same, and they need something to spice them up. Also, how can I "switch things in order to make things in my favor"? The only possible thing I could do is to off a townsmember or pardon a Mafia if it seems if town is going to win too quickly. And at most, that either irks the town (killing townsperson) or gives the last [couple] Mafia an extra day. You lynch me after that. How am I gamebreaking? On April 10 2011 16:19 chaoser wrote: Go read the rest of it -_-. He wants to have fun, not wins ASAP. Probably be banned in any other part of the forum for saying something like that lol. And also that's a horribly anti-town thing to say. You're slightly off (to the both of you). I'm not doing this purely because I want to cause chaos and mayhem. I'm no Joker. I wanted to play town, and I wanted DT, and yet I'm not. Or am I? Consider this my way of living my dreams vicariously through a black-and-blue role. Interesting. There's a psychological resistance to people being willing to vote a black (third-party role) into office because of the fact that they do not share win conditions. However, as already stated, if you consider the win condition I have more carefully, there is nothing that incentivizes me, or the other Assassins, to be anti-town. Especially considering that once elected, I can only die by lynch. Lastly, consider the fact that some "townies" are pretty bad and play anti-town as town. Knowing who I am, you can rest assured that I will be pro-town. On April 10 2011 16:40 urashimakt wrote: You've made a fatal miscalculation: your smurfs can be reported. I've double backed, I'm re-endorsing Proctatinium for Pardoner. Still against a black as mayor in case he has to peace out to avoid losing at any point in the game (probably near the end). Wait, not related to the game, but are you saying you're going to report me for smurfing? Uh... I'm a staff member. I have several known smurfs running around. This is just for Mafia? | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
| ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
There are two ways mafia and/or assassins can react to my campaign. 1) Ignore my post or minimalize it 2) Actively fight against it You can 100% bet that they will not be supporting my candidacy. Assassins in particular must be vocal. Naturally, they do not want me elected whatsoever. In addition assassins and mafia can and will freely attack me because it's very easy to make up some nonsense about why I should not be elected, and lo and behold, a number have already done that. Some will be townie, but I dare say there's a very nice probability that at least half are mafia or assassin. The first point is also interesting. It would be rather unlikely for a townie to look at my candidacy and not have a strong opinion on it one way or another: it's a polarizing issue. You either like it or you don't. We'll cover that in a future post, as it caught a few other suspects. List of People attacking my campaign, openly or subtly. AKA Mafia & Assassin list
tnkted mig kitaman Kavdragon Wiggles Darmousseh Dropbear Robellicose Coagulation Note that DoctorHelvetica is not on this list even though he is opposing me quite heavily, because he changed his stance over time. Upon seeing my campaign, Mafia and Assassins would instantly think "I don't want this guy in office" and their posts would reflect that. DoctorHelvetica, on the other hand, came in supporting me initially and changed his opnion over time upon reflecting on it more. I suppose this could have been an act but I'd rather go with Occam's Razor for now, making me think he is town. This list will have for certain 1 assassin and highly likely both of them because they cannot let me get into office (yes there are 3 assassins). As the Assassins also know they are on this list, they will also find it very likely that their counterpart will be on the list too. However, this list is going to also have multiple mafia on it. I'm guessing 2-3. Why Mafia? Quite simply, they don't want an invincible double shot vigi and a free rolecheck visible to all, and also, someone who they absolutely cannot manipulate the town to kill. The best part? The assassins only have 1 rolecheck and will have to fire into a group of people that has a high concentration of mafia in order to find their enemy. We can lynch from this list if you want, but tbh we really don't need to. Assassins will sort out the matter themselves or forfeit all chances of winning. Lastly, a lot of people seem to be missing the point of my election, talking about some nonsense of how I might be mafia (LOL) or I won't help the town at all (which as you can see above is patently not true). However, who cares? The main points are: 1) You get TWO vigi hits, aka you double or more the town's non-lynch kp, and a dt check publicly known. This is quite important, as all too often dt's die before revealing any of their findings or are so trapped by fear that they won't reveal anything anyways. 2) You know I'm not mafia, so the town can't blow the game like it has many times in the past by lynching its own elected roles, of which there is a substantial and inherent pull to do. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 10 2011 21:17 Barundar wrote: I'm fine with having Protactinum as pardoner, if he will use his KP on targets decided by town a few days in, when we got a better read on who's red. For this to happen we lose the pardoner, which is a pretty useless role for town anyways, and gain vigi, a good trade in my opinion. Just remember Protactinum has a different win condition, so he won't win the game for us. Since he will only help us to the degree it serves his purpose, he will blow his KP on the assassins if they are silly enough to out themselves before we find mafia. But that is a small risk I'm willing to take. Since he obviously can't be our mayor, we should keep focus on our candidates: Chaoser, are you still running? I felt kinda off when you put a FoS on one of the only active new people. Kavdragon, I feel you need to put more effort into your campaign, you posted a lot during night 0, but seem to have gone more quiet around your own candidacy. GMarshal, you honestly want to lynch the most inactive player? That person is never going to be mafia. DrH, it seems like several people are suspicious of your alignment? From all the candidates, I'm interested in hearing how you think our pardoner should be used, the way you will be using your mayor role, and your current mafia reads. To town: it's us who decides who we want as mayor, so don't be shy to ask questions to the candidates, or write your opinions of them. Remember it's the silent ones that gets killed first! Pardoner is fine. I believe for most people, the stigma of "being number 1" as the Mayor is important to them, and as I've made clear, it doesn't matter which role I get. Actually, after sloughing through these ten-odd most recent pages, Pardoner is a better choice. Why? Here's the thing: Pardon has never before been used in an effective manner as to be beneficial for town in the history of TL Mafia. This game makes it slightly different: the elected roles know the identities of two (confirmed town) bodyguards. Those , along with a second specific group that I will explain below, would be the only people that should ever be pardoned. The second group in question is power roles checked by a confirmed Detective. However, this second group is much more prone to the "what if" syndrome. First off, confirming the DT is ridiculously tough in a non-PM game. Secondly, there's a Godfather out there. That's why the Pardon should only be used to save Bodyguards. Of course, that means that the noble guard in question will most likely be shot during the night, but that's an extra night of protection for the elected roles and technically a "wasted" KP for the Mafia, who otherwise wouldn't need to expend a bullet on the Pardoner. And I'm not even factoring in medics, whose protection is otherwise ersatz because it's very hard to know who to protect. Pigeonholing this, the only thing Pardoner is good for is saving the Bodyguards temporarily from being killed by the town, which shouldn't happen if they are upstanding (as in, useful) members of the community. And that's how I would use the Pardoner role. I would save the bodyguards, both to keep townies that I needn't be shooting/checking alive and to further my own interests. Remember, this "alliance" made by voting me in is win-win. Because of the delineated role of the Pardon (to save the Bodyguard), as long as Mafia doesn't get the role, then it doesn't matter if somebody town aligned or a third party (me) gets it, since the focus on using the Pardon will be the same. Another thing to consider: the powers of Pardoner and Mayor haven't changed, but the scope and size of the game has. Mayor still has the finite three votes, which, yes, will grow more useful over time, but if you compare the Mayor from XX to the one that will be getting elected now, the one in XX is more powerful simply because that was not On April 11 2011 01:18 Barundar wrote: Honestly Jackal, you want to leave our first lynch to be decided by a non-town player? We have a role in the pardoner that gives him the protection he needs to act as vigi for him, and pardoner is more of a mafia role than a town role anyways. He can have that, but mayor is too powerful to let a third party have. I agree that it's great to have a non-scum player in office, but it's not irrelevant that Protactinum has a different win condition. For Protactinum to win, he needs to prolong the game untill he have killed all the other assassins. If town is too far ahead, it will be in his interest to slow us down, and vice verca when scum is ahead. Since he will work against us when we are ahead, he will not win the game for us, no matter how great an analyst he is. I suppose my declaration above will mitigate this problem for now. Barundar, I can assure you that this game could go very, very quickly. I am very confident in making the statement that I'll be able to catch Mafia quickly, as I've been able to pin down teams in previous standard games very easily--you can confirm with people like BloodyC0bbler, Incognito, Ver, etc., to check that if you would like. The game won't be drawn out because of its size. With 40 people, assuming there are two vigilantes it still takes at least 6 full lynch cycles with perfect lynches to kill off a team of 8 Mafia--and there's no way we're going to make perfect lynches. This isn't TL Mafia V. With most games lasting only to the 6th or 7th day anyway, this game should last longer once Mafia start dying off early, but not too long since I'll be able to kill my competitors soon enough once the Mafia threat is lessened. On April 11 2011 02:44 kitaman27 wrote: Suppose you are an assassin. What gives you the best chance to hit the other assassins: a) Give up two of your kp to town and hope your 1/40 shot hits the other assassins b) Use all three kp to try and hit assassins This should be pretty obvious. He has little incentive to help town once he actually is elected. As mayor, he will lynch and vote against assassin suspects. Town does not want this. As pardoner, he will never pardon. I'm still running too for pardoner. I think the role should be used for obvious bandwagons. Others are saying they will make the "tough" choice and save those who they have a feeling might be innocent. Instead, I will try to prevent innocents from receiving the most votes to by lynched in the first place. Seems like common sense. No it doesn't. Protract could still be scum. For those who say that there is no way he would take that kind of risk, there are 8 scum. It could be a high risk, high reward kind of situation. Either way, as mayor he would not have the towns best intentions at mind, which is something you shouldn't be supporting. Second most votes gets pardoner. I assume town is competent enough to manage to work it out. Wouldn't it make more sense to give it to someone to wants the role, rather than someone who loses trying to be mayor? Could you elaborate? I think I've been pretty pro-town so far. This is a total flip in philosophy from pregame. Siblings sticking up for each other? I might have to keep an eye on you. It may be overreacting, but this seems like perfect kita logic. I read every single post of PYP3 with excruciating detail, and let's not talk about how kitaman27 played... Cough cough shoot the pretty much confirmed townie that netted a ridiculous number of Mafia multiple times. While he's not being protown he's also not being very anti-town either. Honestly, those types of labels don't really work too well beyond blatant examples for the first day, before anything can be "proven". On April 10 2011 17:21 kitaman27 wrote: What's to stop him from blackmailing town with the identities of the bodyguards once we decide the time has come? Or maybe the identity of the medic/dt? He certainly wouldn't go down without a fight, plus that's a lynch we should be using on scum, not black. Shooting scum does not further his win condition. If he shoots, its going to be because he thinks he is hitting an assassin. He brought up a good point earlier. If town wins, he loses. Why are you defending him so much? Didn't I already say I was going to use my last bullet to shoot them? I have no reason to lynch them , since it doesn't matter whether they die during the day or night other than the fact that they'll be able to fire off a shot if they're not lynched--and that shot can still hit town, Mafia, or another Assassin. As to blackmailing the town with role reveal of blue roles "when the time has come", when is that time? As stated previously (and I'm not going to bother to respond to other people who have just yelled "and what if he turns on us!"), the most I can do to "screw the town over" is to give Mafia one extra day of life. But when "the time" is here, that extra day is completely useless. If the game were already at LYLO for the town, then I've already lost if I save Mafia. Isn't it obvious? Being elected means allying with the town completely. There's no way and no reason I would change 'allegiances', barring some ridiculous scenario that even I haven't planned for (not going to happen). On April 10 2011 18:10 AirbladeOrange wrote: Hello. I just got off my temp ban and had to read through 438967346 pages here. For the mayor situation, it just seems so difficult to actually pick a good mayor at the beginning of the game. Everyone who's running seems like they have an equally valid reason for why people should vote for them. Hell, I probably would have run if I weren't temp banned. My instincts tell me to vote for the flashy guy. Marshal seems like he would be a guy with a fancy looking suit based on the pretty pictures presented in his campaign post. This is complete nonsense. Everyone, whether my platform is good or bad is irrelevant. It is completely different and you deliberately ignore this fact! No sir, you have an agenda. Flashy stuff should only be alluring to children--so give a real reason why you'd vote for him, instead of picking such a poor reason. On April 10 2011 13:33 OriginalName wrote: Well GMarshal you actually put forward an agreeable plan. Lynching My really base reads right now are GMarshal is town. Ive been on a scumteam with him he has more holes than swiss cheese. However as a mayor I would like to know what his plans are after Day 1 as lets face it D1 lynch is a damn crapshoot 80% of the time and when I vote I want more long term goals and ideas in mind Im not amazing at reads however if people do put forward them I will take the time to look at their scum reads. Another thing - one thing I picked up from a vet and I think we ought to start doing is analysing tge posts of those nightkilled. Imagine if we looked at GMs reads in insane 2 GF may have been outed faster creating a completely different game (ie Blacks wouldnt have made enough money for the names). So there ##Vote Gmarshal and all dat jazz. Coincidence? Two phantom garbage votes for Gmarshal, who perhaps coincidentally, has been one of my most voracious opponents. Keep in mind that this is the first post since the game started for both of them! Someone better keep an eye on these three. Yes, I see that GMarshal is playing "pro-town". But anybody can do that. Hell, I'm not town and I'm way more pro-town than any of you (sans the obvious blackness). If he's green or blue, then it's awesome for him to get the Mayoral role (if he can use it properly). Though I still have suspicions that he's black or red. On April 10 2011 19:16 TranceStorm wrote: There is always the possibility that he is a mafia pretending to be an assassin in order to win himself an elected position on the merits of the arguments he listed earlier. But I'm not particularly inclined to this view because as of right now because that strategy would be exceedingly risky at the very beginning of the game. If we were to elect Protactinium, at the very least, we would make sure that a clear non-mafia were elected for the time being. However, I am concerned about his commitment to being pro-town if elected. From his own admission, he says that: Of course, what should happen if he were to be elected, and both bodyguards were to die? The chances are slim of course, but the fact is that he could switch sides at critical moments (i.e. when he is one of the deciding votes between the mafia and town). In the early game, Protactinium would definitely be town-sided, but resulting changes to the circumstances of the game could radically change his allegiances. Oh and lastly, I don't think he would be able to 'ally with mafia' like he claims if he weren't elected since another assassin would take him out to further their own chances at victory. Like other people of reiterated, I would recommend that the pardoner would be the best position for Protactinium on the basis that an assassin would have little reason to ever pardon someone, but at the same time, we have a confirmed non-mafia who is able to give good analysis of player behavior and who will survive for the later stages of the game. Having already responded to the "what if he changes sides" issue, I'm going to instead respond to the "what if both bodyguards die" question instead. Listen to me: whether or not I'm elected has very little consequence on the fate of the bodyguards. Consider this: if somebody town gets elected, then the bodyguards are safe beyond random shots. However, if a red gets elected (and looking at this scattered town it's very likely at this point), then the bodyguards are as good as dead. They may not die immediately, but they'll eventually go down when the Mafia decide it's time to pick off the other non-Mafia elected role--and let's not even think about if they get both elected roles. With me, you definitively know that those bodyguards won't be revealed to the eyes of the public, since that's just plain dumb to do so. Also, if both bodyguards die then I'm also screwed, since I'll be shot by an Assassin. I have every reason to want them alive, and them being dead doesn't increase the likelihood of me "switching sides at crucial moments". On April 11 2011 03:39 urashimakt wrote: Can you direct me to a point in a game where a pardon was vital and game-changing? As far as I understand it, people are lynched because they're voted for. If you don't think someone should be lynched, don't vote for them. I'm wary of anyone ever using a pardon, so if we get someone who will never use it then I'm for that until someone can show me why it's not a plus. I'd rather not have a single player with the ability to say "You know what? No." If he feels a lynch is wrong, he should convince enough people of the same thing. urashimakt made my point for me right here. People are thinking of these elected roles as all-powerful godsends, when in reality, they're not. In games without elections to oppose a voteswing/bandwagon one actually needed to have good reasons and solid conviction, as well as force of argumentation. Yet another reason why I'm better suited for Pardoner, since I've already defined the use of Pardon above. On April 11 2011 04:05 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Mafia has 4 kp, they could probably afford to spend one on nights 2+3, and fake a DT check on night four. Also, protac has mentioned nothing of how he would use said KP. Depending on the chosen method, it would be either easier or harder for it to be a mafia fake. So we'd just get into a ton of WIFOM on days 3+4, over whether he hit vets or mediced targets or not. And that's only if we know his targets, or get to pick his targets, and still, town would be loath to lynch the mayor so early. protac, how would your KP be aimed? Are you notified if you're medic protected? I told you: if elected, I am an invincible double-shot vigilante. How are vigilantes generally used? You kill people who are very predominantly Mafia, and that's what I'm going to do. Being that I have my own Now, to the point of KP. Mafia has four KP, but how can they "afford" to spend one with me faking Assassin as Mafia? Do they just double stack on somebody, use it on the same target that I'm calling, or leave it alone? No matter what, that's good for the town. Stacking shots makes a person way more likely to be killed, but if the Mafia wanted to off somebody with Medic protection that's what they'd have to do anyway. Not to mention that somebody being killed while the Medic protected them means there's definitely a double shot. If they stack on somebody that nobody would protect, then they're just wasting their KP. If they choose to shoot the same target that I do, good for them. Reiterating what I said above, I'm shooting anti-town targets, predominantly Mafia at first then moving into Assassins later on. If hits overlap, traditionally Mafia takes precedence. Yet again, that's a waste of KP for them. And if they hit Veterans, then obviously the Vet speaks up like normal, saying he took a shot in the night. Right there I spoke from my true vantage point, in which I'm the Assassin. Now, let's see what happens when I'm Mafia faking Assassin. My team has to waste a hit whenever I call my shots, and normally with towns calling vigilante shots, they're not going to be happy if a Detective has nailed a goon and is calling for me the "Assassin" to shoot him or her. We could risk doubling up--but that means that if we hit the wrong targets (somebody being protected or a Veteran), once the bodies wash up people will know that two shots were used as one. I can't fake being Mafia because we don't have any extra KP roles, and shooting the ones where we can dump our extra KP into by stacking means that town (or at least the people in question doing the protecting) will know. At the very best, if I'm Mafia we have to waste two shots and "fake" a Detective check that isn't even guaranteed. In any case, the KP from Mafia can be accounted for through diligence. I can assure you they're not going to like losing 1-2 KP and having to "fake" a Detective check (still not sure where you're going with this--Mafia can always fake DT checks) which they're not even guaranteed to get correct in a game where somebody with a lot of killing power is going to be actively hunting them. As for Assassins, they're going to shoot whoever they want to. That doesn't change whether or not I'm elected. Assassin KP is hard to keep track of, since they don't have to shoot either, but it also doesn't play into the "what if I'm Mafia" question. Just to summarize this response up, my shots are vigilante shots, through and through. I have a brain, so obviously I may shoot at Mafia at night, but for the most part I can afford to play like a normal TL vigilante, waiting for a DT check or an overwhelming consensus before shooting. This post is made in response to posts up to the beginning/middle of page 34, since I forgot to do so earlier on. Will continue on plowing through the rest of the pages now. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 11 2011 04:44 tnkted wrote: We can't have protract be mayor. If he plays to his win condition at all, we're left with a mayor who people will constantly second-guess, whose three votes will almost certainly be countered by three switched votes from players who will vote the opposite way of him. In addition, the controversy his every vote will cause will give mafia an excellent opportunity to slip between the cracks and promote conflict in the town. Regardless of whether or not he is the best candidate, electing him would be extremely detrimental to town, if for no other reason than the fact that people are so divided over this. Personally, I don't think he's actually demonstrated to me that hes really the assassin and not the GF framing himself black. If he's who he says he is, then he is absolutely capable of pulling such a trick over on us. Who could possibly counterclaim? Another assassin? They don't know if he's one of them or not. In fact, if I was the godfather and a vet, this is precisely the strategy I would use to get elected mayor. I'd tell everyone I am 'so sick of mafia, I just want to make this game fun' and I would rely on my reputation to convince people that I know what I'm doing. I think I made clear in the previous earlygame (insane 2) my opinion on relying on reputation when I opposed Kav's mayoral campaign. However, he is a tried and proven player and an excellent analyzer. As such, I am tempted to keep him alive... but on a leash. He can't be in a position of power, but to lose such an excellent player this early in the game would be pretty painful. Nonetheless, we are presented with an opportunity here. We have a known target. We can be 100% certain that if we don't elect Protract he is going to be hit tonight. Tnkted's Plan We don't elect Protract. Instead, we use him as bait. Watcher should watch Protract. In the morning, you should post everyone who visited him. Any assassins that visit protract in the night will be revealed to each other (something I'm certain they don't want) and any mafia trying to hit our strongest player will be revealed as well. Of course, we reveal our watcher in this plan, but is it worth it to the assassins to trade their anonymity for one kill? It would completely end their parts in the game by the second night, and would turn an enjoyable game of lurking in the shadows into certain death. Thoughts? If you don't elect me, Mafia isn't going to shoot me. They'll just let other Assassins deal with me. And if you're watching them, you can know who they are! Whoopie! And if you're town, who cares about finding Assassins? Your plan wastes an asset that could be used to find Mafia, considering how powerful the Watcher role can be. I'm glad you want to keep me alive because I'm good, but honestly that won't net you anything. Remember, I don't actually have any formal/legal allegiance to the town, so there's no reason for you to waste resources on me. On April 11 2011 04:50 tnkted wrote: Because it keeps the assassins from wanting to kill Protract. If they kill him we reveal who they are. Perhaps the watcher isn't actually watching protract, but if he is they are revealed. It makes killing him a giant risk and allows us to vote an actual townie into office. No, no, and no. You vote who you think is town into office. You can't prove anything right now, nor will you be able to check said person elected later on because of his/her immunity to night actions. Anybody can play pro-town early on and won't draw suspicion, and the set of {Anybody} includes the blatant subset of {Mafia}. I'm guaranteeing you that I'm not Mafia. ...I can now skip a lot of pages since I don't need to deal with anything Pandain-related. On April 11 2011 06:03 OriginalName wrote: Back from RL issues. Im gonna recap to myself what happened along wkth opinions Protact getting support - Why is near confirmed non town getting an elected role. PANDAIN CLAIMING DT - What. The. Fuck. Was my first reaction. my second how do we know hes not lying. Sure theres no counterclaim but who would counterclaim D1 DT, theres likely more than one so how would we know yatta yatta add in wifom done mafia has a free dt kill D1 we get no breadcrumbs. Second its completely safe for panda to claim DT as scum. Scumteam elects him as Godfather and even if DT checks and confirms its like DF all over again (minus the D2 victory). How has Pandain only gotten the your an idiot reaction- Hes just abusing his metagame to fuck with town FOS Pandain Im goin to keep my vote on GM cause as wishy washy as people are making him out to be hes still quite protown. Hello obvious person saying nothing! Again you don't give any unique or new reason, or even bother to back it up with more than one line. Actually, that reason isn't a reason: you're simply just asking a question that's been shouted out by naysayers for 30 pages now. Mafia! On April 11 2011 06:13 kitaman27 wrote: No, quite the opposite. If we put him as pardoner, he will be scrutinized and distract the town for the first half of the game. The real way for us to stop talking about him is to not elect him and let him get night killed by the other assassins. You'll scrutinize whoever is elected. By your logic, scrutinizing said persons will cause you to distract yourself. Without me, you'll constantly be going "oh but are you really being pro-town, or are you faking it? Am I WiFOMing myself right now? Am I? Am I?" I feel like I could say a lot more to you and lecture on and on for hours, but it's not worth it. Also, I didn't respond to you because you weren't worth responding to. This is exactly the same as your obstinate and utterly stupid play in PYP3: you don't see reason buddy. On April 11 2011 06:43 Kavdragon wrote: Screw it. I'm still 10 pages behind cause i had a sound gig I was running this morning, but this needs to get out there asap. (Sorry if it ignores stuff that has happened since page 31) Protactinium is Red. Dr.H is Red. First and foremost, don't let anyone fool you into thinking that the mayor is a unimportant role. It's EXTREMELY powerful, and VERY helpful to the town. This is a problem for the scum team, so they need a plan to bring it down quickly. So what do you do? First, you try to get a member into the office. It doesn't matter WHICH spot because they are both told the names of the bodyguards, and it doesn't matter HOW it's done, because the person put into that seat will be a sacrifice. Letting one of 8 members die is an excellent trade if you knock out the mayor, and secure the pardoner's role for it. As a bonus you can knock out most, if not all meaningful discussion the first day. Now how can this be done? Have one member claim assassin, have another intimidating member bully and be extremely negative of everyone else running for mayor. My case for Protactinium v1.0 Protactinium has done only one thing so far, and that is announce and defend his Assassin claim Gambit. An interesting, and somewhat appealing plan at first glance, but upon deeper inspection doesn't make sense. I know that Protact is a VERY skilled scum player. He's a good player all around. This gambit of his is a huge risk, because he doesn't know if town will let him in. If he played it quietly, he'd have a better chance than most. He says he came up with a new way to try to survive: become pardoner. It makes sense for a little bit, because that spot is protected. But there's a problem: As he has said multiple times, he wants to use this to get into the endgame, where he can throw his last hammer and then be done. It would work if the mayor lived that long, but to quote foolishness, "Mayors have a pretty high mortality rate". He wants to hid behind bodyguards, but look how fast they fell in insane! Over all, there is SOME validity to the strategy, but not NEARLY enough for someone of Protact's skill level to try it. It's not his level of play. It doesn't make sense. On the other hand, what if he's Red? It'll become apparent enough pretty quickly, and he'll die. So that makes no sense, right? WRONG. There are 8 players on the scum team, and the mayor is a very powerful role. You can cause TONS of havoc from this position, and if you play it right, you might even be able to survive for a few days and stop a lynch. It doesn't even matter if the lynch was going to kill a townie or mafia, because when you flip, people will see that mafia stopped a lynch, and that person is sure to be lynched again. This saves them a whole day either way. This is EXACTLY the level of play I would expect out of an excellent scum player. Before you say that Mafia wouldn't sacrifice one of their better players, it's was done before when Protact and BloodyC0bler were playing in XXVIII. Protactinium is SCUM He is my currently on my "to-be-lynched" list, and even if you don't agree with my conclusion that he is definitely scum, you cannot deny that there is a strong possibility, and because of this, he should not be voted into office. No question. My Case for Dr.Helvetica v1.0 I've only played with Dr.H once before, and that was in Salem. It was my first game, and I was subbed in. he played EXTREMELY differently in that game. He was positive, helpful, and gave good insight and ideas freely. This game he has been extremely negative of almost anything suggested. He has used his considerable prowess at being intimidating to bully players, and stomp on very pro-town ideas. On top of that, he has been posting TONS and been pretty spammy about it too. There's a lot of new players, so what better way to scare them off than to drown them with hundreds of posts? Stomping on my attempts to help newer players. Stomping on Gmarshal's attempt at running for mayor. Stomping on Tnkted's EXTREMELY PRO TOWN IDEA. All of this is EXTREMELY ANTI-TOWN no matter how you look at it. Everything he is doing is clearly designed to snuff out new people so that we have tons of inactive players. Doc H is a good mafia player, and there's no way that this is not being done on purpose. Doc H is mafia, and he's doing a damn good job of both spamming the thread to pieces, shutting down pro-town ideas, and intimidating new players. These are just a few examples of how he is destroying a pro-town environment in the thread. I think that everyone has seen this for themselves though. He has almost 100 posts and it's not even half way through day 1! He has contradicted himself multiple times with his mayoral campaign (I'm not going to run --> Mayor is unimportant, and i wish it weren't here --> I can't trust ya'll, I'm going to run). The reason why he singled me out so early was because I am dedicated to doing exactly the oposite of what he is trying to do. I will not get sucked into an argument with him that will spam the thread. I will not stop posting good advice for newer players. I know it looks scummy. I don't care. It will help newer people, and that's worth it. If I can mobilize the the masses before i die, i die a happy death. I refuse to stand by while he destroies the learning environment I am trying to build up. DoctorHelvetica is SCUM What an excellent post! Allow me to deconstruct it. Wait. I now actually just read your post (the part about me), and you say absolutely nothing. First off, you don't actually know my playstyle. You've never seen me play town. You've never been in a game with me as Mafia, and good lord that was such fun. While you seem to know about XXVIII I highly doubt you've actually read it. We didn't sacrifice BC. He died because there was too much on him at once, and no way to keep him alive. If you're using that to make an example of how similar these gambits are, you're silly. Hell, the only game you've probably actually read is the one where I just randomly owned everybody as the Village Idiot. Case in point: your conjectures and allegations mean nothing. On the other hand, what if he's Red? It'll become apparent enough pretty quickly, and he'll die. So that makes no sense, right? WRONG. There are 8 players on the scum team, and the mayor is a very powerful role. You can cause TONS of havoc from this position, and if you play it right, you might even be able to survive for a few days and stop a lynch. It doesn't even matter if the lynch was going to kill a townie or mafia, because when you flip, people will see that mafia stopped a lynch, and that person is sure to be lynched again. This saves them a whole day either way. This paragraph applies to everybody currently playing, as well as to the general "well what if we let red get an office position" question as well. So we remove that from your case. Over all, there is SOME validity to the strategy, but not NEARLY enough for someone of Protact's skill level to try it. It's not his level of play. It doesn't make sense. This is EXACTLY the level of play I would expect out of an excellent scum player. Before you say that Mafia wouldn't sacrifice one of their better players, it's was done before when Protact and BloodyC0bler were playing in XXVIII. What? How is there not enough validity? You don't actually give any examples, nor do you define cases and scenarios. You merely are going "no you" right now. And what doesn't make sense? And how? If you'd actually explain it'd be better--and I'm pretty sure the posts I have made explain why it does, in fact, made sense. Evidently, I've done my research. I highly doubt you have. Please come back when you've read 20-odd games that are similar to this one. So we remove that from your case as well. He says he came up with a new way to try to survive: become pardoner. It makes sense for a little bit, because that spot is protected. But there's a problem: As he has said multiple times, he wants to use this to get into the endgame, where he can throw his last hammer and then be done. It would work if the mayor lived that long, but to quote foolishness, "Mayors have a pretty high mortality rate". He wants to hid behind bodyguards, but look how fast they fell in insane! This game is different than insane. There aren't as many loopholes and broken mechanisms, and if you honestly expect the bodyguards to fall so quickly, then elected roles are screwed anyway. It doesn't matter if the Mayor lives or not. I don't give two cents about his three extra votes, nor does it affect my gameplay as it pertains to the ultimate outcome of this game. Therefore, that point is completely useless and has no bearing on why I would be Mafia. So we remove that from your case as well. So you're left with this. Protactinium has done only one thing so far, and that is announce and defend his Assassin claim Gambit. An interesting, and somewhat appealing plan at first glance, but upon deeper inspection doesn't make sense. I know that Protact is a VERY skilled scum player. He's a good player all around. This gambit of his is a huge risk, because he doesn't know if town will let him in. If he played it quietly, he'd have a better chance than most. You haven't given any indication that you've "inspected my plan deeply". You've simply posted cookie-cutter allegations with "what if" as your modus operandi. Of course I'm a skilled player. And I'm a very bored skilled player. This gambit is the only reason why I'm actually paying attention to this game at this point instead of just coming in around Day 3 to hunt for Assassins. So we remove that from your case as well. And now you're left with nothing. Just as when you started. As for your part about DoctorHelvetica, I could care less. He may be scum, but he's certainly not scum with me. tnkted's plan is not good for the town, so why is DoctorHelvetica objecting make him scum? On April 11 2011 06:45 Kavdragon wrote: Oh, and I'll add that you will notice (again, at least up till page 32) that Doc H argues against protact a ton, but he never talks to him. Same with protact. Why would two people so opposed not talk to each other? It makes little sense unless they are on the same team. It's hard to talk to people in a serious conversation if they are on your scum team. It's the same reason why I didn't address kitaman27. DoctorHelvetica's posts had nothing of value for me to address. The most he was saying was "don't let Protactinium get elected" and "just let him die", which were the first two thoughts pretty much everybody against me would have had. On April 11 2011 06:50 kitaman27 wrote: I'll happily argue anything you want for my candidacy. The fact that I'm not getting support shows that the mafia has no interest in backing me. Why would they want someone who is pro-town, when they could elect an assasson or someone like DrH who is always the center of attention. To summarize campaign for pardoner so far: -We should prioritize pro-towness as our biggest reason for voting for mayor. -I consider myself a pro-town player. With the exception of my single scum game, there have been more than a couple votes against me over a 10+ game period. When I'm town, I'm almost never in the lynch discussion and that's something you want with your elected officials. In addition, I'm not afraid to speak my mind and I've proved from past games that I'm not one to suddenly go inactive for days at a time. -I will argue to sway the lynch against innocents so a pardon is not even necessary. I will only use my pardon in obvious bandwagon situations. I do not believe the pardon should be used on a whim, as we valuable information to analyze. -I am completely against an assassin in office. The fact that everyone thinks we can manipulate an experienced veteran to do our bidding is not well thought out. He does not have the town's interests at mind and should not be elected. He is getting far too much support, which should concern everyone. -I've been backed by GMarshal as his running mate, the person who has received the most votes to this point. "Pro-townness" doesn't mean you're town. Solely going off of that as your reason for choosing a Mayor is terrible. You are historically not a pro-town player. PYP3 again. Nothing further needed on that. I highly doubt you're able to argue down a bandwagon, and as said before that's not how Pardons are to be used anyway. Who cares if you're against an Assassin? Why is that part of your campaign? Who cares if you're backed by somebody else who also doesn't have that great of a history in playing games? If he's Mafia, he's just backing somebody who he knows will be easily to control and won't be able to harm the Mafia team. On April 11 2011 06:56 GMarshal wrote: EBWOP: who the hell is this and why is he voting for me? He has no posts in the thread, right? He's inexperienced. Either he doesn't understand the rules, or he's Mafia voting for Mafia. Or both. At least the first part. On April 11 2011 06:58 OriginalName wrote: My scum reads: Pandain - Fakeclaim into lolno sorry not DT Protact - Assassin or Mafia Kavs arguement against him is solid My not sure reads: DrH - Why so aggro bro? Leaning scum Chaoser - Leaning pro town would be imo a great pardoner Everyone not listed (Most leaning town to various degrees) Town Reads: Kavdragon - This is not his scum style at all GMarshal Tnk Mafia. Learn to actually give analysis instead of hiding behind somebody. On April 11 2011 07:02 OriginalName wrote: Why not? Refuge in audacity has its uses. While I will state that if DrH is not scum Protact is the assassin. DrH: What happens if Kav turns ou town after hes lynched D1? Protact: Why should we trust you to use your shots for town instead of backstabbing us? Answered on page 45 or 46. I can't even backstab you, for crying out loud. I've already talked about why I have to play pro-town when elected. On April 11 2011 07:29 Kavdragon wrote: As part of my plan to help newer people out, I present the first part of my guide to analysis. I was hoping to post this after i had finished the whole thing, but it would seem that we could use it already. Over the my past four games, I've had the opporunity to participate with scum teams twice. The experiance of being on a scum team was really helpful in identifying ways of finding scum, because I got to know how scum teams work; the challenges they are faced with, the reasons why scum still act scummy even though they know to avoid it, and so forth. Now that I'm not scum, I'd like to pass these things on. So without further ado, here's my two cents on scum. #1: Know your enemy: If you want to figure out how to find scum, you have to see things from their perspective. When I first started playing mafia, I was confused how a scumtell would ever work. If there was such a thing as a scum tell, why wouldn't mafia just NOT do that thing? I didn't understand why mafia would NOT participate as much as the town, or why they would try to not contribute, while looking like they really are. Then I got on a scum team, and i figured it out: Scum tells are things that are extremely difficult to avoid even when you know about them. When you are on a scum team, there are two key factors that alter your play: You are on a team, and you know who is scum. These are both things that you cannot avoid. Because of this, scum tells can be built off of them. Because you are on a team, you will be talking to the other members of your team. This takes away a significant portion of your time, especially if you had team members that were as funny as mine were. Beginner scum players want to look like they are contributing because they are not good at hiding a lack of contribution yet, so they actually try to contribute. Unfortunately they don't have as much time to evaluate what is happening and what is the best plan for town at the moment. Because of this, they fall back on giving general advice, and give no real opinions on the current situation. Better/Veteran scum players actually try to look like they are contributing, but are really good at hiding the fact that they aren't. Activity can be increased to accommodated this, or excuses can be given for not contributing as much, so it can be somewhat unreliable, but it is still a good hint to work off of. (Especially when you are dealing with older players) The second difference between you and scum is that they know who is scum. Obvious, no? But it has implications that are ridiculously hard to shake. When you are scum, it's really, hard to form opinions on who looks scummy. I don't mean that it's hard to say "Incog looks scummy". I mean that it's hard to actually believe that someone looks/is scum, because you know that they aren't. This is compounded by the fact that you talking to your scum buddies when you otherwise would be going over people's posts trying to figure out who looks scummy. To recap, the things you are looking for are a lack of contribution, and a lack of clear opinions (especially when it comes to the alignment of someone). What does this look like? Well, the lack of contribution for new scum players will look like people posting a lot of one liners and other stuff that shows that they are there, but aren't actually contributing new ideas/opinions to the discussion. If there's a player that's just sitting around posting things like "I agree" or making non-committal statements about the situation, there's a large chance they are doing something else. It makes no sense for a townie to be around posting on the thread all day but not spending time to contribute. As players get better, the lack of contribution becomes harder to spot. Some will disguise it with relevant and helpful information. On the surface it looks like they are helping people out, but if the knowledge is common, then what have they helped with? Nothing. I'm not an advanced scum player by any means and I've not played with any, so I can't inform you as well as I'd like in this area, but ask foolishness if you have more questions. The lack of strong opinions of people is one of my favorite ways to hunt scum, because I know how hard it is to avoid it as scum. It usually manifests itself in contradiction, and will something like this: A player says that Qatol looks really scummy, and then a day later votes Qatol for mayor. When you are scum, you're thinking about what will be beneficial for your team, so you will support a lynch at one point, then forgot that you did, and say something contradictory later. A player says that they have a town read on someone, and then a while later they vote for their lynch without giving a reason for the change of mind. Contradictions like these are awesome when you catch them. Another one: Someone says that the mayor is overrated, and not that powerful, and proceeds to talk about nothing other than the mayor for the next day. The next section is on analysis and arguing/pushing for your target. Good guide! Unfortunately, it doesn't make any case for you in this game. It's a standalone piece of work and should be treated as such, and can't be used as leverage for you to go "look I'm town clearly". I could write a protown guide and not be town in a game. It's called being able to play both sides. On April 11 2011 08:00 Kavdragon wrote: Alright, so to all you newcomers out there, I hope you aren't skipping through all this spam so fast that you miss this post. Firstly, this game is about having fun. To have fun you need to get at least a little invested in the game, and you're not going to invest anything in the game by not posting. Post in the thread for a while. Post who you think is town and why, post who you think is mafia and why. Start giving some opinions, and you will become more interested in the game. The more interested you become the more you will participate, the funner it will become. There has been a TON of spam so far, and there have been some rude comments. Both of these are not typical of TL Mafia (Although the last game did have a lot of spam too.) Don't worry about it. Everything in this thread is said like actors on a stage. Nothing is personal, and most people are a lot friendlier out of the thread. So what are you waiting for? Jump in and start posting. As a warning, people don't like it when you post lists/opinions without explaining them. If you give no explinatitions, there's nothing backing up your argument, and it also makes it look like you're hiding something. So just explain yourself and you won't have people breathing down your neck. =D GL all! Another post that doesn't actually add anything to the game. This is just like whoever-it-was-I-forget-his-name that would post the same "plan" for the town at the beginning of each and every game. On April 11 2011 08:21 Rean wrote: yeah right you're gonna kill mafia while they actually help you by possibly killing a asassin, giving up your night-actions in the progress YEAAAAAAAAAAH, right, you're gonna ignore your own win conditions because you're such a nice person keep trying, you're pretty amusing. Please learn to read. I'm not ignoring my own win conditions. This is called finding an alternative route. I'm getting tired of saying this, but I'm not here to play standard. What does the highlighted and bolded part even have anything to do with this case? On April 11 2011 08:32 kitaman27 wrote: Cute, you quotes all my posts and then rather than responding, you reference my worst game in an attempt to discredit me. I must be missing your point because I fail to see how this is an appropriate response to the posts you quoted. Oh wait, you aren't town so that was your intent. Of course you have a reason to lynch them. Its part of your win condition to kill other assassins. Why throw away your final shot when you could lynch them? That's an unnecessary risk. Does town really buy this? You know as well as I know that town will not punish you for carrying out your own agenda. You can pretend to be trying to shoot a scum. but in reality you will be assassin sniping. Consider a late game situation, in which 1 scum remain. If that scum is lynched you lose. Therefore, you will be 100% against town if they are ever in a position to win. I think this is pretty clear. Since no one has come out and asked for some reason, How many assassins are there? Learn to read. I already said there were three. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
DH on the other hand, is a much better choice for mayor given that he’s actually shown signs of being pro-town. Like I said earlier, the fact that he changed his stance on me for the election shows that he’s actually thinking about this game, and not in a way that favors mafia. Secondly, much for the same reason that GMarshal’s vote train is unsettling, DH’s lack of a vote train is telling. Thirdly, DH’s play this game doesn’t fit into his mafia act. He’s been posting decisively, and has been voicing his suspicions freely, rather than being indecisive like he is when he’s mafia. DH is definitely a better candidate than GMarshal, and that’s saying a lot. Chaoser is the most pro-town person here other than me. But given his lack of clout DH is probably a better choice. Anyway, for that analysis that GMarshal has NOT shown us: I present to you Original Name. OriginalName quite frankly says nothing Original at all. On April 10 2011 13:33 OriginalName wrote: Well GMarshal you actually put forward an agreeable plan. Lynching My really base reads right now are GMarshal is town. Ive been on a scumteam with him he has more holes than swiss cheese. However as a mayor I would like to know what his plans are after Day 1 as lets face it D1 lynch is a damn crapshoot 80% of the time and when I vote I want more long term goals and ideas in mind Im not amazing at reads however if people do put forward them I will take the time to look at their scum reads. Another thing - one thing I picked up from a vet and I think we ought to start doing is analysing tge posts of those nightkilled. Imagine if we looked at GMs reads in insane 2 GF may have been outed faster creating a completely different game (ie Blacks wouldnt have made enough money for the names). So there ##Vote Gmarshal and all dat jazz. This just screams “hi I’m mafia!” Lynching Lurkers is a great idea? Wow, really, is it that great? OriginalName is trying to make something out of nothing. This is obviously not a new idea. The rest of the post doesn’t say anything of use. You know how to read GMarshal? Great. I’m sure you can see how he really hasn’t been saying anything substantive so far. Analyzing dead people’s posts? Wow, how Original. Not. On April 11 2011 06:03 OriginalName wrote: Back from RL issues. Im gonna recap to myself what happened along wkth opinions Protact getting support - Why is near confirmed non town getting an elected role. PANDAIN CLAIMING DT - What. The. Fuck. Was my first reaction. my second how do we know hes not lying. Sure theres no counterclaim but who would counterclaim D1 DT, theres likely more than one so how would we know yatta yatta add in wifom done mafia has a free dt kill D1 we get no breadcrumbs. Second its completely safe for panda to claim DT as scum. Scumteam elects him as Godfather and even if DT checks and confirms its like DF all over again (minus the D2 victory). How has Pandain only gotten the your an idiot reaction- Hes just abusing his metagame to fuck with town FOS Pandain Im goin to keep my vote on GM cause as wishy washy as people are making him out to be hes still quite protown. This post is even worse. You’re going to recap with opinions? Hahaha…There are no opinions here other than “No to Protact” and “Pandain is an idiot”. These tell us nothing. And also reinforcing GMarshal’s pro-townness without any evidence. On April 11 2011 06:58 OriginalName wrote: My scum reads: Pandain - Fakeclaim into lolno sorry not DT Protact - Assassin or Mafia Kavs arguement against him is solid My not sure reads: DrH - Why so aggro bro? Leaning scum Chaoser - Leaning pro town would be imo a great pardoner Everyone not listed (Most leaning town to various degrees) Town Reads: Kavdragon - This is not his scum style at all GMarshal Tnk Protact as scum reads? Please…I’ve already said why I’m not mafia. But apparently you haven’t been reading my posts. Interestingly enough, you have been reading Kav’s though…The town reads are laughable. Tnkted is nowhere near town. His PbP on Mig is useless, and has pretty much no analysis in it. Comments on how he’s glad Coag supports GMarshal for mayor and DH for pardoner, rehashing the same points about assassin being a bad choice for office. Honestly, its getting old. People saying that assassin is a bad choice for office aren’t thinking about it. Of course on the surface, not town, no office! Is a nice mantra, but it doesn’t hold up to close scrutiny. OriginalName is clearly lurking. Very few posts, keeps pointing to the fact that he’s busy in real life, but strangely seems to be well informed on the thread. Has a solid attachment to GMarshal and seems to have strong opinions that are backed up with either nonexistent or flimsy reasoning. OriginalName is classic red. As a Recap, DH > GMarshal. I will be lynching OriginalName if elected Mayor, and I ask you to do the same if you are the person who ends up with that power. | ||
Protactinium
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On April 11 2011 12:49 Kavdragon wrote: Protact: Tnkted's plan was pro-town. Period. When was the last time that you looked at the voting thread? When was the last time you looked at this thread? Posting votes in this thread makes analysis much easier. There is absolutely no down side to it, and a definite up side. Not posting your vote should not be considered a scum tell as much as it should just be frowned upon. But it's not like it's going to be enforced, it's just something that will happen. When people start posting votes in here, people will start looking at people who don't, and ask them why. Stomping on that plan was anti-town, so it's one point in favor of Dr.H being scum. Next: You brushed aside my accusation that you could be red, saying that that applys to anyone. WRONG. You are the only person that has claimed assassin. You truly are a master of the pen, and i admire your ability to write convincingly, but you cannot defeat the logic that It would be worth it to get one mafia into one of the seats, even if they die. One of the easiest ways to do that is to get someone who is good at the game to claim Assassin. Based on that alone, i don't think that you should be considered for office. Lastly, you are correct in assuming that I have not read all, or even two of your games. I didn't have the time to do it, but I'm sure as hell not going to let that stop me from analyzing your play. I've talke to vets who have played with you, so I have do have some idea of your play. To those who say I'm posting stuff that's obvious so that I can say I'm pro town Don't you think that if i were mafia, I'd have realized that since everyone is saying that it's not buying me pro-town points, and stopped doing it? Why would mafia put so much effort into something that has been explained several times as NOT being something that will earn you pro-town points? Sometimes I can make mistakes as well. I didn't even bother to read the part about DrH since it doesn't have anything to do with me, and I was talking about this, which is an actual "plan" that tnkted proposed and DrH shot down. Posting votes in "both threads" isn't a plan, and thus I didn't treat it as one. I like how you jump at the smallest things though. Got nothing real to say? Stop contriving things that don't exist. I'm not Mafia, and we've already explained why. Your statement doesn't prove that I'm Mafia, and you yourself have said before that you just look at good players in suspicion without just cause. On March 18 2011 08:15 Kavdragon wrote: I think this has to do with a problem that many people, especially newer players (guilty as charged) view veteran players. Hopefully Ver will bring it up in his analysis, but my argument is this: People think that older veteran "elite" players are gods. They think that they are always right, and that they always push scum. It's just not true, Ver pushed for Jbright, and several other town players before he pushed scum. Sure, they are better, and that skill needs to be considered, but they make mistakes too. This is a mistake I made in XXXVI, when I pressured RoL for not being very active or helpful. I expected him to be really active, catching scum left and right, and when I saw him playing a bored townie, I thought he was scum. If we can rid ourselves of these unrealistic expectations, I believe that veteran life spans would be longer, and we would get more vets playing. Yes, but I feel that that is treating the symptoms, not taking care of the problem. You're doing it again. Stop thinking too much of me, and stop running in circles yourself. As for the part of your statement that I've bolded, it's WiFOM. I don't care if you are or aren't Mafia from that, but what you're posting doesn't do anything for the game. If you want to show that you can write general advice, put it in another thread. Better yet, just link people to what the "vets" have in the analysis guides already made. | ||
Protactinium
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##vote: Protactinium | ||
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If you think about it, you'll actually find that really there isn't any way I can effectively screw town and win. So the only question is, will I screw over the town just because? No that would be stupid because playing against your win condition is a modkill offense. So basically your only other argument against me is that I might screw up the endgame (chaoser proved that was nonsense). Now, as I have established that I have no reason not to cooperate with the town, the question is, what does the town get from me being in office? Simple. First of all, there is no suspicion against me of being mafia so you won't mislynch me. I won't even bother addressing anyone who insinuates that. Please consult a coach if you really think that and take whatever they say as the word of god. Secondly, you get 2 extra vigi shots and a fully public DT check, which totally breaks the blue balance (I imagine we should use them as a second lynch type vote during the day and I would shoot the highest pick). Town gets those benefits and loses what? The pardoner office dies when I leave the game? Who cares, town doesn't need pardoner. Look closely at what people are saying. The anti-Protact rhetoric is inflammatory, panicky, and illogical. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 12 2011 13:51 M0nsterChef wrote: Why do people think I'm still scum? Is there anything other than my poor decision at the beginning at the game that suggests that I am? I think a lot of unnecessary pressure has been put on me because of that stupid beginner mistake. Well the first thing to do would be to vote for someone else besides the most likely scum of the bunch. Ideally we'd get DH as mayor and me as pardoner. We just need 3 to switch off of gmarshal. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 12 2011 13:54 chaoser wrote: I trust that shit. Get on it people, 6 more minutes. This is definitely doable. Gmarshal voters, think about it. Someone soars to 11 votes while the other candidates have 4/4/3 and you don't blink and think that something is wrong? This same someone has been contradicting himself left and right and is so wishywashy he can't even decide on who to lynch so he doesn't look bad. Look even now, he is getting found out by multiple players with their own unique logic different from mine. Furthermore, he is absolutely terrified that I might get into office. DH has hardly supported me either this game and has attacked me quite often actually, but he is totally different. DH takes stances and pushes people hard directly without hesitation. Everyone is yelling "BLACK AHHHH" at me but they are voting the most probable mafia into mayor. That is delicious irony. If I can't get in office last minute vote switch to DH to make him mayor at least. | ||
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On April 12 2011 14:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Oh well, I don't know what the fuck he was thinking with his posting. Time to reevaluate and move on. This game is built on the assumption that a townie is lynched day 1 but this is a big confidence loss for me. But we're even more screwed if I get too upset about this. It is what it is. Dont worry man there'll be some good surprises for us. Let's get this game started. And I still believe you are innocent because mafia would never have dared attempt that in the first place. Anyone who suspects him for that flip should heavily consider that. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
I checked Coagulation last night, and he is Mafia. Now you may be asking, is Protactinium trying to pull a fast one on me? I thought Assassins couldn't use any night actions till Night 2! I am, in fact, not an Assassin, as I may have led you all to believe Day 1. I am actually a Detective, and I've found you a Mafia member right from Night 1. Now why would I claim Assassin Day 1 if I was actually a Detective? It was intentional, and all part of the plan. Unfortunately, I wasn't elected, but at least I had a backup plan. TL towns have a history of wanting to Lynch All Liars, but there is a very good reason that I didn't claim Detective from the start. Just look at Pandain to see why DT claims never work: it's been tried before, and Mafia have every incentive to fake claim DT. Thus, the claim backfired and the entire town jumped on him and tore him to shreds. Not a desireable outcome if you're really a DT, right? And this wasn't the first game where that happened. If you have time, go back and read TL Mafia VIII, where nemY the Detective claimed Detective... and then got jumped by town. I expected the same backlash had I actually roleclaimed Detective, so that's why I went with the Assassin claim. Furthermore, while Mafia are very incentivized to claim DT, they would be stupid to claim Assassin, since if the election bid fails, the actual Assassins will just shoot them Night 2. On the other hand, claiming DT is fairly safe for mafia, as after the intial backlash, the claimed DT will generally be ignored for the rest of the game. Assassin claims also help draw out the Mafia, and as the Pandain example shows, DT claims don't have the same effect, since everyone attacks the DT claim and causes chaos. And if you're saying this is a bus and I'm Mafia, you wouldn't be saying that after I net a Mafia Night 2. And then Night 3. The next question is assassin numbers. Remember how I claimed that there were 3 assassins? That was actually a ploy to keep the actual Assassins off of me. In terms of balance, all of the past games with assassins had assassins consist of roughly 10% of the total game population. In XXII, a game of 38 people, there were 4 Assassins, and in XXX, a game of 30 people, there were 3 Assassins. This game has 40 people, so assuming that Ver and Qatol helped BrownBear balance the game along the same lines as they did for me, there should actually be 4 Assassins in the game as well. Thus, my claim of there being 3 Assassins was a guess, but an educated one, in the hopes to keep both the guise of me being Assassin up and the actual Assassins off of my back. Anyway, my plan successfully drew out the mafia. As I said before, mafia and assassins are desperate to stop my campaign, as an assassin in office would be a serious threat to both parties. Yesterday's vote clearly showed that mafia got panicky and overreacted when the vote was close and I had a chance of winning the election. Anyway, going back to my original list: On April 11 2011 04:56 Protactinium wrote: List of People attacking my campaign, openly or subtly. AKA Mafia & Assassin list
tnkted mig kitaman Kavdragon Wiggles Darmousseh Dropbear Robellicose Coagulation So why is Coagulation suspicious? He is clearly pushing mafia objectives. As I have established before, Mafia doesn't want me anywhere near the Mayor/Pardoner positions. Guess what Coagulation has done? He opposed me right from the start. Then during the middle of the election when it looks like I had no chance of winning, he shut up and wasn't saying anything about us except for when he made a candidates list explaining what he thought of each candidate. Near the end of the day, however, when it looked like we had a chance of winning, Coag suddenly jumps on us and starts frothing at the mouth. He attacks me viciously, this time saying that I'm Mafia doing a not-so-last-minute vote switch and that the Assassin claim was just to garner votes. Seeing that the "he's assassin, don't vote for him" strategy didn't work, he tries to spread more fear by saying that I am Mafia. Then, when it seems like I have no chance of winning anymore, Coagulation disappears again. He's silent during the time between DrH winning and Kav getting flipped, even though he was conveniently defending Kav strongly before this time. And guess what? Although Coag was adamantly against the lynch earlier and attacks the lynch right after it occurs, he is mysteriously silent right before the lynch and doesn't bother saving Kav at a moment where his arguments could be critical. This is completely consistent with Mafia objectives, as Mafia obviously would prefer that a known analyst is lynched over a random inactive. Rather than constantly trumpeting his position throughout the thread, he pops up in bursts, striking when mafia need it most, and then disappearing when things are going well. I got most suspicious of Coag right after the lynch. Look at when he is posting, and when he is not, and its obvious that he has a hidden agenda. But that's not all. The whole game, he is useless and does nothing except spam and spread doubt on the mayoral candidates. The more interesting and important point though, is that he has an utter lack of conviction on who could be mafia. In particular, look at when Coag was yelling at DH not to lynch Kav. DH asked him for alternatives, yet he couldn't name a single name, just "any of the countless scummy lurkers". Compare this with his games as town, where he has no problem pointing out who he thinks is most scummy, and its pretty obvious that Coag is trying to hide the fact that he knows who the mafia are. Classic Mafia mentality, not wanting to have to point out scum and be accountable for it. Coagulation as green is fearless, posting every single thought that comes to his head as to who is Mafia. As DrH said at the end of Assassin In the Palace, Coagulation posts very frequently. This trend of trying to actively hunt down and call out Mafia as green goes all the way back to Haunted Mafia. As red, look at games like Insane 2 and Don't Lose Your Village. Coagulation is much more restrained and doesn't point out any reds with conviction like he does when he's town. To sum it up, Coag is pushing mafia objectives. He had fierce opposition to my candidacy (mafia do not want a pro-town assassin in office), and conveniently posted at the right times. The whole game, he has been indecisive and is spreading doubt. Furthermore, he has not shown any conviction on who he thinks is Mafia, which is completely inconsistent with his town play, while he has no trouble pointing out who he thinks is innocent (GMarshal and Kavdragon). With all this evidence and my role check, there's no reason to vote anyone except Coagulation. GMarshal is suspicious too, but I'm not sure one way or the other. One thing is certain though: if he pardons Coagulation, they're both Mafia 100%. Like I said, this party is only getting started. Mafia totally fell for my trap, so we are way ahead of where we would be otherwise. Vote for Coagulation. | ||
Protactinium
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On April 13 2011 15:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Today on the shitter I thought "flamewheel is either assassin or detective making some ballsy play" however i don't believe you are bad enough to DT claim day 2 on a check, I mean really? that's textbook shit. This pandain stuff sounds like mumbo jumbo you made up after the fact. Here's what I think. I think you're the assassin. I think you came to the same conclusion as me: Coagulation and Kitaman27 are the other two assasins. You think you can win very quickly, if coagulation is lynched and you burn your hit on Kitaman27. I'm not convinced. This is just very odd behavior and I wouldn't expect this from a player like you of all people. I'll look back on coagulations posts and crosscheck with your analysis tomorrow. Still working on homework tonight but I'm skeptical right off the bat. Please elaborate more on your DT gambit ESPECIALLY why you decided to claim? Why not simply make a case? Everyone believed you were trying to help town as the assassin? Why not just say "look coagulation is probably mafia here is my case as to why" and get the lynch onto him? As I see it you have a huge incentive to see Coag dead if you got the same read on him I did and you are indeed the assassin : / It's illogical not to claim. Do you really think that in a game without PMs and in a situation where I'm going to get shot tomorrow night by Assassins I'm not going to tell the town that I've found a red? I have to claim at this point. Otherwise I'm just going to get shot by Asssassins during Night 2, and there's your best blue down the drain. There's honestly nothing else to it: I either claim and prove myself by having Coagulation lynched, thus drawing Medic protection so that I can continue searching, or I die to Assassins Night 2. As to why Coagulation is red, and not black, look again at the Kavdragon issue. Look at how much he was spamming the thread, trying to up his townie cred before it went through. Remember, conveniently after you as Mayor was finalized and you made your announcement that you would lynch him he went silent, only coming out to flame and taunt afterward. An Assassin would have no reason to try to prevent the Kavdragon lynch, and have no reason to taunt you post-lynch anyway, as that just draws suspicion. An Assassin would be more than willing to point out reds since that builds him townie cred and possibly gets him medic protection, which he sorely wants. Coagulation has been really hesitant to point out reds. Combine that with the Kavdragon situation and it's highly unlikely that Coagulation is black. If I were Assassin and Coagulation is lynched and turns up Assassin then I still don't have a chance of winning. If he's not red, that means I obviously didn't rolecheck. I'll still proceed to get shot the next night since there's no way in hell BrownBear would put only two Assassins in a 40 person game. | ||
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On April 13 2011 15:38 bumatlarge wrote: Ah, that does make sense, and the assasin numbers does sound clever. Were you planning on being mayor and then revealing or what? Though to be fair coagulation has been very active playing pokemon, not sure if thats an excuse for his activity. But I can't really go against a DT check with no millers. I think it's fairly obvious we should be lynching coagulation. Yes. Upon being elected we would have claimed DT. There'd be nothing to hide: we'd just announce our checks every night before making them, and announce reds when we found them (and I assure you it's not that hard right now given the current state of things). Coagulation's problem isn't inactivity. It's scumminess. He still has 74 posts in this game with roughly 60 of them being made after he got his role PM. You can't ctrl+all anymore, but look at the times where he posts. Actually, I'll printscreen for you since I still can ctrl+all. His posts come sparsely in some areas, and then they clump up massively where he's trying to distract the town. Yeah, he may be playing Pokemon, but all that really means is that he's around when he needs to distract the town. | ||
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On April 13 2011 15:56 Mig wrote: I don't really understand why prot didn't just run for mayor normally instead of trying the assassin gambit. Everyone agrees hes a very strong player with excellent analysis, it seems like he would be a great mayor just as a normal townie. If he runs this gambit and it fails then he has to convince the town he was faking before and even if he accomplishes that the assassins will still likely target him. And I want to add I did say earlier that it would be in prots best interest to lie about the number of assassins no matter what because it might trick the assassins into voting someone else. So I still believe that prot is an assassin, however I think there's a good chance coag is mafia. If prot used his 1 dt check last night and hit a red I think the obvious play for him would be to role claim dt. Then if we lynch that player he called out and its right he can ask for medic protection. Why didn't I run for mayor normally? First of all, I wanted to mix it up a bit, and second, it gives us way more information than we would have had otherwise. Like I said, an assassin claim provokes a mafia reaction in order for them to avoid an assassin mayor/pardoner. Even if I die tonight, its well worth it. I'm pretty confident you'd all be pretty lost right now if I hadn't drawn out the mafia. | ||
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On April 13 2011 16:13 Lemonwalrus wrote: Your claim, (the detective one) showed that the only people in the game that knew you weren't an assassin were the actual assassins, since you put in a fake number of assassins. If this reasoning were true, you would not be afraid of assassins killing you tomorrow night. No, I'm still afraid. Remember that the assassins are just as likely to be confused about my alignment than I am. So far, it seems like I've been playing a pretty convincing assassin. Its very possible that the assassins could still think I'm an assassin, and that I was merely lying to the town about the number of assassins. The guess on 3 assassins was intended to throw a wrench in other assassins' analysis, but it is nowhere near foolproof. The chances were better that I would get away with not drawing their attention if I said three rather than four, but there's still the possibility that there are actually 3 assassins, or that the assassins think I just lied.. I'm not actually safe from Assassin shots until it's confirmed to everybody that I'm actually DT. | ||
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On April 13 2011 16:30 Lemonwalrus wrote: His statement doesn't make sense if you replace we with the town. Not only that, he specifically differentiates 'we' from 'the town' when he says "we would announce our checks to town" I doubt he actually scum slipped because slips like that are probably exceedingly rare, I just want him to explain it. Whoops? It's late and I'm tired and I've started talking to my roommate about this game and what's going on. Too much writing for one day gets to you (MSL post coming out soon). | ||
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On April 13 2011 15:57 Barundar wrote: Oh dramaz! First of all we knew protac was going to do something drastic to not get killed tonight. Personally I'm not buying the whole "it was safer for me to claim assassin than DT", claiming assassin is painting a huge target on his back. The reason people jumped on Pandain was because of his plan of a non-town mayor, and because his sole platform was the DT claim. We saw from Protac's campaign that he was quite capable of making a case for himself more than just his role claim. It seems all too convenient to me that he would A) Fake claim assassin over DT B) Find mafia in the first go when he doesn't get elected into office. C) Roleclaims instead of building a case, on day 2. I found Coag to be one of the most pro town players, quite unlike the analysis provided by our "DT". That said, I'm looking forward to Coags response. Like I said, claiming DT doesn't work. But I find it interesting how you say that it's "convenient" that I found Mafia in the first go when I didn't get elected to office. I am easily the best player in this game. Yet you seem to think that the Mafia are hiding well. I'm sure you didn't want to let that slip, did you? As to your third part, I roleclaimed while building a case, which is something you've either blatantly ignored or didn't notice. Obviously, you didn't read any of my case on Coagulation, did you? Didn't think so. We have Coag's response now. He's blowing up and getting desperate, so you can honestly just give up. Your defense of him is laughably transparent. Coagulation is nowhere near being pro-town. Why do you think that? | ||
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On April 13 2011 16:20 AirbladeOrange wrote: I'm not necessarily against lynching coagulation, but how is he definitely a better kill than M0nsterChef, OriginalName, or GMarshal? At first I didn't know what to make of Coag because he seemed all over the place. Now, after Protac's analysis I certainly agree he is very suspicious. But I'm just not convinced he is more dangerous than any of the other suspicious people. They all seem on the same level to me. M0nsterChef and OriginalName (more the former than the latter) aren't very present in the thread. M0nsterChef is pretty much just being inactive, and OriginalName isn't actively trying to derail the town. Neither of them are pushing Mafia agendas as strongly as Coagulation. As for GMarshal, Coagulation has a really strong tie to him, and even disregarding that we don't want to lynch our Pardoner so quickly--what would be the point in electing him then? | ||
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On April 13 2011 16:32 aidnai wrote: drawn out which mafia? you've put out coag, he hasn't flipped yet, but having read his posts myself he was not high on my suspect list. Also, 'mix it up a bit' sounds retarded. You coulda won the mayor campaign easily with zero claims, most townies were complaining about how stupid all the other campaigns were and EVEN AFTER CLAIMING BLACK you came in an easy 3rd place... It's definitely suspicious that IF you are an assassin, this is your only viable play today. Even more so that there wasn't actually a good reason to claim assassin in the first place as a DT. I think that, as you said yourself, you got assassin, didn't like the role, and tried to make the best of the situation. IN ANY CASE, I'm not going to let this prevent scumhunting at least for the sake of our vigilantes. i.e. even if we lynch coag, the remaining vigis might have something to go on. I'm not going to derail this by making more claims than I can substantiate right now, so I'm going to only announce this one. However, after this lynch I'll show you my list. I have four, possibly more depending on how the day goes right now, and I'll post it after the lynch goes through. Even if I die during the next night, the town will be in a much better position. Also, the point of claiming black was to draw Mafia reactions (along with more subtle black reactions). That alone should be enough for me to claim black, since if I had claimed normally or hadn't claimed at all the mafia would probably be lurking in the shadows and wouldn't have a need to come out to oppose me in large numbers. If I had claimed normally and failed, that would have been death right there. Had I not claimed, Mafia would still be in the shadows and it would be much harder for everybody, let alone me, to pick them out. | ||
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On April 13 2011 16:46 Barundar wrote: What this really comes down to is that protact and coag can't be on the same team. One of them is lieing. Congrats to us, we are getting us a scum. As for who of them to kill first, I'm going to go with my read on coag, which has been pro town so far, despite what protact has written. Protact is writing a long story to explain his actions, and I'm going to go with the simplest explanation: He has been lieing and is now throwing another gambit to avoid dieing. Both the simplest explanation and my read points away from coag being scum, that's how I will vote. Explain exactly how Coagulation has been pro-town so far? I think you're just making stuff up out of thin air here. Either way, if he truly is town, then why do you want to lynch me? It's obvious that if Coagulation is not red when he flips, I'm dead. Lynching me is a sorry excuse to save Coagulation. | ||
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On April 13 2011 16:58 Mig wrote: He has nothing to gain from this as scum I agree, but he has a lot to gain from this if hes an assassin. In fact this is literally his only chance at surviving. Prot could be 100% right and coag is scum. But the problem is no matter what I feel like the best play for him will always be to role claim dt. However, if he was going to lie and role claim it makes sense that he would pick the person he felt was most likely to actually be scum. So basically if anyone wants to lynch coag that's fine but use prots arguments as the reason do not consider his role claim, there is just too high of a chance that he could be lying about it. As DoctorHelvetica pointed out, this can't be an Assassin ploy to win unless there's only two Assassins. Just think about it for a second and try hard to convince yourself that there really are only two Assassins. So you're saying I'm not a DT but I picked Coagulation to roleclaim DT to try to save myself? Step back and think about it for a bit. You seem to be trying to make the facts fit your concept that I am an Assassin. And even though we've established how that's irrational, why would you still doubt me? I am undoubtedly the most pro-town person here at the moment. Try not to over think this. Let's see how this unfolds and go from there, ok? | ||
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On April 13 2011 17:26 Mig wrote: Prot I do really want to know though if you were a dt and you got a green back with your check what was your plan? You would still have to lie to have any hope for surviving. I am fine with people lynching coag but I want everyone to make their decision based on reason and not on a claim that has such a good chance of being untrue. Claiming black and running for election on a "I will hunt down Mafia" platform is and was guaranteed to have Mafia throwing themselves at me in order to stop me. While they succeeded in keeping me out of office, they still exposed themselves in the process. Now if I had gotten green, then I would have just announced my check and gone after my second target. The rolecheck is the icing on the cake. There's a full-blown case on Coagulation and his Mafia play. | ||
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On April 13 2011 17:06 Barundar wrote: Lol now "It's convenient that you find scum in first go when it's the only way you could survive" translates into "scum is hiding well"? Nice try I like how you keep blowing your own trumpet. I read your case, and your main point is he only defended kavdragon before the lynch was sent in, and that he couldn't point to who he wanted to instead. I didn't specify which lurker I wanted killed myself either, but like coag I got pretty fucking pissed off when I woke up and saw Kavdragon had flipped green. But what it really comes down to is not both of you can be town. One of you is lieing. It's beneficial to trade scum for town 1 for 1, so town wins in any case. Whats up to town to decide is whether we use a lynch on one of you, or just let you die to assassins and lynch coag depending on what you flip. You miss the point. Why would you find it convenient that I found scum? I'm flamewheel. I'm known for catching scum. This should come as no surprise to you. But since it apparently has, it's clear that you're hiding something. You apparently didn't read my whole case. It contains a lot more than you just said right now. But don't worry, we don't need your vote. There are 35 other votes to go around. You miss another point. As people have pointed out, its impossible for me to be Mafia. So why would you lynch me? And since if I'm wrong about Coagulation, the assassins will shoot me, there's even less reason to lynch me! You seem intent on saving Coagulation even if it's for one day. Why wait to see what I flip before lynching Coagulation? It's not like Coagulation is actually a good player... | ||
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On April 13 2011 18:17 aidnai wrote: hmm... lots of people missing from this conversation. I'm gonna give it a rest and see what's up tomorrow. SCUMMY LURKER LIST latrommi Milkyst <- 1 post + 1 vote lol jaminz serejai rean none of these players are interacting with the game in any meaningful way. Scared of imba scumtells much? depending on activity levels as today progresses, we might get a nice vig shot on one of these, I'm thinking milkyst. His only post proves he's been reading the thread (look at bolded part), but all he can say is he wants to lynch redFF because he's a 'little bit suspicious'. 1 post and 1 vote per day keeps the modkill away right? goodnight everybody. Trying to derail the lynch. How cute. You’re going to have to make a bigger splash if you want to be successful though. The list is laughable: earlier you didn’t give an opinion on Coagulation other than maybe lynching him. But now that he's in the spotlight you turn around and ignore the whole Coagulation thing, offering over and over again to lynch an inctive instead. Inactive over scummy? Please… For everyone trying to discredit the Coagulation as scummy: Coagulation is not “unreadable”. Its fairly easy to differentiate when he is town and when he is mafia. As I stated in my analysis, one thing that has been strikingly absent from this game is Coagulation actively and fearlessly pointing out scum. Check out any prior game where Coagulation is town. He has no problems pointing out who he thinks is scum. On the other hand, in this game, he hasn’t accused any mafia with conviction. Yes, it is true that even as town, Coagulation doesn’t post any analysis. But that doesn’t stop him just saying “X is mafia”. Notice how that is not present in this game either. It doesn’t matter that he defended Kavdragon. Mafia know that information anyways, so it isn’t a big shocker. Coagulation isn’t acting like he normally does when he’s town. He viciously attacked my candidacy, which is a pro-mafia move. The timings of his posts are suspicious. Every one of his actions fit with mafia objectives. His defense of himself after my accusation is just terrible. His vet claim is laughable too. He said he could prove being vet. But that isn’t possible unless a vig shoots him. And how does he know there are any vets left? Obviously, he doesn’t. He’s just stalling for time. Notice how when everyone ignored his vet claim, he got even more desperate and asked for a DT check. Guess what, I already checked him! He’s obviously in a panic. Everyone trying to save him by suggesting that they wait until I flip first is just trying to stall for time. If you take a step back and think about it for a moment, Coagulation is clearly mafia. Everyone stop bickering and focus on the real issue at hand, which is the Coagulation lynch. Everything else can wait until tomorrow. | ||
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On April 14 2011 00:32 GMarshal wrote: This is a waste of a lynch if coag is what he claims, a vet. I have an alternate suggestion, ignore the two, have a vigi hit coag tonight, if his claim is false then coag is dead, wham we got scum, if he is telling the truth we have a confirmed townie. On April 14 2011 01:01 GMarshal wrote: In a setup with a known liar claiming dt and finding scum you lynch the accuser. Lynching the accused tells you nothing about the accuser. You always lynch the accuser first. Add in the rule of Lynch all Liars you have the person you should be lynching first. Coag has also claimed a role that is provable with a night hit. Shoot him and get a confirmed townie to rally around! Mafia has to waste hits killing him, medics can prot him and we make the mafia uncomfortable. Seems like a better investment than lynching and moving on. This is the most anti-town suggestion ever. A few posts back you stated that you wouldn't be surprised if Coagulation flipped red. You were elected on the premise that you could analyze behavior. You're in a position of leadership. Stop trying to avoid this discussion. If you can analyze, then analyze Coagulation and give me an honest opinion on his alignment. None of this wishy washy stuff. First, there's no reason to avoid this lynch. As I mentioned, Coagulation's veteran claim is absolutely bogus. A confirmed townie to rally around? Yeah right. This game has no PMs, so confirmed townies are near useless. Furthermore, it's Coagulation. I don't care if BrownBear confirms him. A confirmed Coagulation is worth zero. Regardless, your obstinateness is getting old. I won't waste my energy trying to convince you of anything. Its not like your vote matters. | ||
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On April 14 2011 01:58 redFF wrote: Why we should not lynch coagulation. Think about it for a second. Why in christs name would a dt claim assassin? If protact was really dt, he could have just run for mayor normally, got voted in, and then said he was dt now he was protected. Im tired of protact claiming black, claiming blue and just serving up a bunch of fucking wifom and derailing the thread. We should concentrate on lynching scum. And the most certain scum lynch seems to be m0nsterChef. Since ON got replaced by LSB and LSB seems like a long time player. I'm guessing he could be valuable to town and we shouldn't lynch him today. You are trying to discredit the Coagulation lynch based on the fact that I'm the one accusing him. You aren't addressing the fact that Coagulation has scummy behavior. End of story. DT check + scummy behavior. If you want to derail the lynch, try harder. | ||
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On April 14 2011 03:46 Barundar wrote: The only thing that really concerns me with lynching coag now is we might waste another lynch, and day of scum hunting, but I guess the possible benefits outweights this risk. The lynch will not be wasted unless you can find someone who is even more scummy than Coagulation. Given that that isn't possible, you should just vote Coagulation. And quit your fearmongering. If, as you so adamantly say, Coagulation is town at the end of the day, then I'm dead during the night. Everybody who has a gun is going to be pointing it at me, so do you really expect that you'll be "wasting another lynch"? | ||
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List of invisible posters: LSB ilovejonn GMarshal aidnai | ||
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On April 14 2011 05:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote: If you think coag is red, how is shooting him "wasting" a vigi hit? Because then we'd have to find another target to lynch today. Why try to find another target when we have a 100% mafia here? | ||
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On April 14 2011 06:19 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Mr. Wiggles' Take on FW vs. Coag Ok, so I just got home from school (last class of semester, yay!), only to open up the thread, see who died, and find 15 new pages of information. So, there's been a lot of debate on Flamewheel's DT claim, and how he fingered Coag as red, and I'd like to add my own thoughts to it. Information available to me: -FW claimed Assassin Day 1, in an attempt to secure the mayorship -FW is a veteran, and lauded analyzer -FW has now claimed DT, saying he checked Coag and that he is Mafia -There are no Framers -Coag has claimed Veteran, and is adamantly defending himself Thoughts: I'm personally inclined to believe that at this point, FW is either an Assassin or a Detective. I'm not going to entertain the idea that he's a Townie or Mafia. If he's a Townie, then this is very anti-town play, because he could have easily claimed the mayorship without any kind of claim, and now he's faking being a DT. That would mean he's involved in two major lies, but hey, he'd probably be having fun :p. If he's mafia, then this doesn't make much sense either, as again, he could have easily claimed the mayorship without any claim, and then everything that follows would be complete insanity, though if he were somehow mafia, it would follow closely to my thoughts on if he were an assassin. So, without further ado: Case 1: Flamewheel is an Assassin Then, his claim day 1 is a very strong power play against the other assassins. He would assure himself immunity from them, while also having complete security from accidental hits from mafia or vigilantes. There is nothing illogical about a Black trying this. However, he never made it into office. This then leaves him in a bit of a tight spot. Mafia have no reason to shoot him if he's black, so he'll probably live through Night 1, but he needs to find a way to live at least past night 2. So what can he do? Claim detective, and put his strong analytical skills to work. A lot of people seem to be mistaking that just because FW claimed he used a check, he must be DT because Assassins can't use a check Night 1, without considering the possibility that he used no check at all (Looking at you, new players). All game long, I've had to read how in awe people are of his scum hunting skills, so considering this, it would be relatively easy for him to pick out at least one potential scum candidate and make a case against him, using the fake DT check as extra leverage. This fits in with his motivations of self-preservation. If he's wrong, so what? He just gets killed which, and this is important, he would have anyways after claiming Assassin AND Detective. If he's right, then he can potentially attract medic attention, and live through the night, which is his optimal move at the moment. Case 2: Flamewheel is a Detective Then, according to him at least, his claim day 1 was a draw to get mafia and other assassins to attack him, so he would have more information to work with. However, in doing so, he most likely lessened his chances of actually making it in to office. So, this is not illogical, but is more of a choice of information over security. So, as he would have expected, he did not make it into office, but was free to use his check last night, on Coag, with it coming back as mafia. Now, he needs to build his case against him, but in order to get town to actually believe him, he has to claim his real role, Detective. This will allow him to lynch a scum, and draw medic protection so he can continue checking. It also dissuades Assassins from hitting him, so he can continue to help the town. Why Coag's Flip Will Reveal Nothing Useful About Flamewheel: Let's say that Coag flips Town (Green/Blue). Then FW is lying, and is an Assassin. His gambit has failed, and now the other Assassins will kill him overnight. This reveals nothing to town, only other Assassins. Let's say that Coag flips Mafia. This reveals nothing to us about FW. All it shows is that he might be a DT, or he's a good analyst. We don't know anything about his alignment, only that he can pick out scum. (Which is useful but has dangers, addressed later). My Opinion: I'm personally inclined to think that Flamewheel is an Assassin. While both scenarios are sound and have nothing inconsistent in them, I find the first one to be more likely. After a failed claim and run at the mayor, this is exactly how a good player like FW would have to play it in order to have any further chance at winning. If he were a DT, there are many different ways he could have played out Day 1 and now Day 2, and pretending to be an assassin seems to be one of the oddest. This means that his case on Coag is entirely analysis, and should be treated as such, though keep in mind this does not necessarily lessen the case on him. How we should proceed: Lynching Coag? Lynching Coag is only an option if we have been convinced that he is a member of the mafia. If you are only convinced because of the claim, but not by analysis, then I urge you to reconsider your decision. If you are convinced by the analysis, then nothing is really amiss. The only oddities I see with Coag is that he hasn't seemed quite as aggressive and spammy as earlier games (The same applies to Jackal), so this might be due to his claim, or to his being mafia, both are possible. In my opinion, we should consider if there are other scummy targets who we can lynch, as Coag has claimed Veteran. Like GMarshal (and others) have said, we can use a vigilante shot on Coag tonight to see if he is Red or a Veteran. This might require the Vigilante to claim, in order to assure its authenticity, but then we either have two confirmed townies, or two confirmed scum (If the shot is faked). This is debatable however, so I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on it. Medic Protecting Flamewheel? Again, this is debatable. I don't think we should lynch him really, as we are either lynching a Detective or an Assassin, both of which are bad for town (The Assassin less so). So, we are left with the decision of either leaving him to die by Assassins or Mafia, or protecting him to continue to analyze and possibly check. He'll be targeted by either or both factions because of his two claims. Assassins will hit him as they think he is an Assassin, or Mafia will hit him as they think he is a Detective. So, should we protect him? From my perspective, no. We will not know his role until he either flips, or is investigated himself and that information is made public. This means that we can only trust in him so far as his analysis and scum hunting goes. However, as I mentioned earlier, there is an inherent danger in this. Flamewheel has a reputation as a good analyst. If he is an assassin, he can very easily analyze the players he believes to be the other Assassins and put a spin on the analysis so that his final conclusion is Mafia. This entails that he'll be using town to kill his competition, wasting our lynches. This is the first reason for not protecting him, the next being that it won't do him any good anyways. Right now, he is a prime target for both the Mafia and the other Assassins, and there is a high likelihood that they will stack, when there is a separate 3-5 KP that might be aimed at him, from the mafia spending one, and anywhere between two to four Assassins all wanting to kill him. A medic protecting him is a waste. If people want to increase his chances of surviving the night, a much better choice is to place a watcher on him, as then we may net ourselves a Mafia and collaterally, the names of potentially several Assassins. So Who Do We Lynch? At this point in time, I don't know. What we should do, is pull back for a minute and start scumhunting. Several people have created several analysis, and I'm sure there are more that can be made if the town starts actively analyzing. At the very least, this will give us more information, as everyone will either analyze, or will be analyzed, giving us something to work with in the coming days. Hopefully we can find someone worth lynching in the next day and a half, and if not, we may be forced to reconsider the Coag vs. Flamewheel debate. Here's a long post that says nothing. Let me rephrase your last paragraph. "What we should do, is ignore the real debate and try to take off the pressure for a bit. Several people have created analyses, so if we make more, maybe we can drown out the Coagulation lynch! At the very least, this will cause chaos and save Coagulation for a day. Hopefully we can find an alternative target, because I sure don't want to lynch Coagulation." | ||
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On April 14 2011 06:46 redFF wrote: Here's what we should do lynch m0nsterChef. He was a lot of people's scum read day 1. Hahahaha. So we should lynch him because he was a lot of people's scum read day 1? Judging from the overwhelming amount of votes on Coagulation today, its pretty safe to say that Coagulation is a lot of people's scum read day 2. Yesterday was day 1. Today is day 2. Given that we have a lot more information day 2 than day 1, lets go with the 'more information' and vote Coagulation. Stop trying to derail this lynch. | ||
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On April 14 2011 07:34 ilovejonn wrote: I like how people I feel uneasy about and dislike are in here though: From vote count: Coagulation: 10 Protactinium DoctorHelvetica kevconsim chaoser urashimakt Rean Mig bumatlarge DarthThienAn Serejai Thank you. I like this list. It shows us that these bolded people have a lower chance of being mafia than everyone originally suspects. Just look at the opposition to this lynch. Its obvious the mafia has a hand in it. Here's what people are not getting. From the Mafia's point of view, if Coagulation was town, they'd be content to let him die, because it wastes a day's lynch. They'd also know that I'm lying, so I'd get shot at night anyway. It would be a win-win situation for them. But that's not happening, since Coagulation is mafia and I'm really the DT. No wonder the mafia have to come out and oppose this lynch in full force. | ||
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On April 14 2011 08:31 Jackal58 wrote: You're either scum or stupid. Alright. I have been gently calling Coag and GMarshall scum since the beginning of night 0. A little more so today. I gotta believe scum has seen this. Looking over the people we lost last night I can't quite understand why CubeDin v1 who was just put in the game would have been killed over me. Same with tnkted. He did a lot of analysis but most of it's wrong because he doesn't understand the mechanics of the game. Both GMarshall and Coag know that once I start calling somebody scum I don't quit. If either were scum I gotta believe I would be dead rather than Cube and Twinkles (Miss you my love). Rean didn't post a lot in Insane. I was actually surprised he turned up blue in that game. But his posts weren't bullshit laden cesspools. Serajatroll is another one I would love to lynch. Neither are town oriented. They both play the idiot card. I would rather see either of them go. Neither are an asset. Both are very likely scum. I'm going to vote for Rean. Don't over think things. It's clear that the mafia was trying to blue snipe last night, not hit the vocal players. You being alive doesn't say anything about anyone. Please reconsider your stance on Coagulation. | ||
Protactinium
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On April 14 2011 09:22 LSB wrote: I have a neutral read on Rean, however I'd rather lynch Rean over Coagulation. So you'd rather lynch someone who you have a "neutral read" on over someone who has been DT checked and has overwhelming behavior evidence against him? | ||
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On April 14 2011 11:10 GMarshal wrote: you go on the invisible people list too, seriously, how the hell do you fail to see the relevance of this? flamewheel dosn't even know how the DTs work! Which means he is LYING! Why did you so desperately want to know? Also, do you really think that I, of all people, don't know how DTs work? Quit grasping at straws. Quit jumping the gun, jumping on me, and giving me these "time constraints", as I'm going in order of responding to the thread. You got desperate: how about you quit attacking the messenger, and actually address the actual behavior points against Coagulation. I'm simply loving this day: I expected Mafia would come out of the woodworks to defend Coagulation. Not only that, you trapped yourself. By continuously asking me explicitly what my check received is a clear indication that you are Mafia. If Coagulation was a roleblocker, I would have said so. But I did not. He is just a goon. Seriously your itchy trigger finger got you in trouble this time. You got scared now that I've come back to put an end to your chaos-making antics. It's over scum. Also, its curious how you only decide to attack the messenger, while you’ve ignored all the behavior points I made against Coagulation. If it wasn’t obvious that you were Mafia before, it sure is obvious now. | ||
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On April 14 2011 11:42 DoctorHelvetica wrote: coagulation is not a power player I can't see any mafia faking a DT claim to save a lynch on coagulation. that's pretty desperate play especially considering how much dissent there already is to the lynch: and the fact that mafia has no reason to try to get protactinium lynched/killed if they believe he is the assassin (unlike the reasons they would have to keep him out of office) Incorrect. Coagulation is a key player for the mafia. It's not that he's a good player, it's that mafia have already committed to saving him. Look back at the thread. Ever since my Coagulation accusation, mafia have been trying to subtly redirect the lynch. Notice how people are "not convinced" that Coagulation is mafia, try to suggest that we let me die tonight to "prove" that Coagulation is innocent, and try to suggest other targets. Yet notice the divergence in the voting thread. The voting is overwhelmingly in favor of lynching Coagulation, yet the debate in the thread diverges sharply. This is not an accident. Notice how nobody was doing any real analysis before I popped up and accused Coagulation. Mafia felt no need to fear when they thought I was as good as dead. But when I post a strong analysis, they reacted. They reacted not by refuting my points, but by flooding the thread with alternative accusations trying to derail the lynch. Why? They don't know who to push. They know the Coagulation analysis is a strong one, so they need to offer a target that town will readily buy. They're trying to test the waters and see what lynch works. Obviously, Coagulation is Mafia. If he were anything but, Mafia would be content to let him die and would have never felt the need to defend him in the first place. It is certain that mafia defended him originally, as shown by the floods of alternative target suggestions. Your so-called "analyst" Pardoner doesn't do anything but fling mud at me for the better part of a day. Yet when I return and start decimating his attempt to derail the lynch, he panics and decides to fake claim DT in a desperate attempt to make the town back out. Oh, and not to mention he does a bogus ultimatum in which he makes a shoddy attempt to discredit my DT claim. GMarshal's DT claim as Mafia makes total sense. He can't be rolechecked, and given the situation the mafia is in, he needs to do something to stop the Coagulation lynch. Furthermore, he knows who the mafia are, so it isn't that difficult to solidify his position later on in the game. Just look back at GMarshal's behavior. Its clearly scumlike. He was elected on a platform of being a "good analyzer", but he has done nothing but fling mud, spread doubt, and make a few half hearted attempts at analysis. GMarshal has something to hide, since he is obviously mafia. Mafia have every reason to save Coagulation now because they've already committed to the lynch. Too many people are coming out accusing people of being mafia. Mafia felt pressured, and were forced to make a big move. Mafia got overconfident and thought they could discredit me because I switched claims. Unfortunately for them it failed. | ||
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On April 14 2011 11:55 GMarshal wrote: In my mind the point raised against coag was "prot is a DT, he got back a check saying he is red, lynch coag!" As to his analysis I have no real reply because I can't read coag at all, I read his posts and wonder if he is drunk, and then move on with my life. I simply think that that analysis is going to be biased anyway because this is prots last night on earth. Here's the cop out. The truth is, he doesn't respond to the analysis because he can't. He knows Coagulation is mafia. If you take a step back and think about motive, GMarshal has been way more shady than I have. I have been completely transparent and have been completely honest with you and have revealed all my plans to you. On the other hand, GMarshal has nothing to show for his empty words. Think about GMarshal's overall profile. What is he trying to do? From day 1, notice how he does not express support for any candidate other than himself. Why? It seems that every other candidate was expressing who they wanted in office and why. It is extremely important for town to pick good elected officials. Yet GMarshal did nothing of the sort, and didn't say who he wanted to win election, besides himself. Yet he had no trouble in saying who he thought shouldn't be elected. It's obvious he has an agenda here. He doesn't care who gets in, as long as he is one of the winners. Look at the suspicious votes GMarshal gets. There are countless lurkers and inactives who vote GMarshal without explaining why. And as you recall, GMarshal was the first one out the gate, and managed to obtain a sizable lead early on in the race, while everyone else was stuck at less than 4 votes. At one point in time, GMarshal's 11 votes outnumbered all the other candidates combined. This is not a coincidence. As I've said before, mafia candidates are never uncompetitive in a mayoral election. Having the 20% of the total voting power, mafia always tend to get an early lead and maintain it. Why is this? Because of town tendencies to bandwagon, it is very advantageous to get an early lead, as you are likely to attract votes of newer/inexperienced/uninterested townies who feel safe voting for a big name player who leads the vote count. GMarshal's early lead suggests mafia interference. But that's not all. Look at the thread activity during day 1. There are plenty of people who are unsure of electing DH or me on day 1, but almost all GMarshal's voters are unmoving. There was plenty of room to sway votes among the DH/Protact crowd, but GMarshal's voters were alarmingly loyal. Look at how GMarshal has acted during day 1. He mentions lynching inactives, is strongly opposed to me, yet ignores my accusation that he is black. After that accusation, he plays a little act and calms down a little, and even begins to waver. Yet a few posts later he's back to attacking me full on. He shares much the same profile as Coagulation. When I have no chance of winning, he doesn't say much. But when I suddenly get 3 votes, he starts spamming the thread along with Coagulation to try to stop my election. That's not all. Look at how he handles the lynch. He knows that he is leading for mayor, yet he is very vague when discussing who he is going to lynch. Although he suggests a few inactive/lurking targets, he never settles on one. He makes a half assed analysis on Mr. Wiggles, in which he cannot draw any conclusions. He never really takes the initiative to point out scum. Compare this to his town play, where he isn't afraid to smack down his vote and express a solid opinion. Now on to day 2. GMarshal has done nothing productive for the town. He claims he is a good analyst, but it doesn't show. All he does is throw doubt and confusion, and opposes the Coagulation lynch strongly. I've already pointed out why this is a pro-mafia move. His first 10 or so posts on day 2 are aimed at shooting down the lynch. How? He does it by attacking my character. It's not hard to see how my analysis makes sense and is infinitely superior to others people have put out. Yet GMarshal can't be bothered to be any more pro town than shooting down the lynch. Put yourselves in a townie's shoes for a moment. Suppose you didn't believe my analysis, and there are already 10 votes on the suspect. As a townie, and especially a town elected official, you have to work quickly. You need to pick out a strong mafia target and push him hard. You can't just sit around, fling mud at the current lynch, and not push the town in the right direction. All of a sudden, GMarshal posts a huge DH accusation. Pro-town, right? Wrong. If you read the accusation, it's hillariously half-assed. It includes mockery and caricatures to make DH seem ridiculous and anti-town. DH's play is generally abrasive, yes. But in this game, it is clearly not anti-town. Notice how since from day 1, he's been calling out suspects, and isn't afraid to look like the bad guy. DH is too aggressive and bold to be mafia. Compare this to his mafia play in XVI, and you'll notice a huge difference. DH is much more diplomatic and wishy washy about his reads when he is mafia. Anyway, the important point is how GMarshal reacts after this "analysis". He continues to mess around, posting aimlessly, and posts nothing of value to the town. He doesn't even bother pushing his lynch target. This should ring red bells in everyone's head. A townie would be pushing for their lynch with all conviction. Yet what as GMarshal been doing? He posts his analysis, and doesn't mention it until a bit later where he asks DH to respond. Now just think about it. If you're town and have an accusation to make, you don't just post it and then just ignore it. You use whatever method you have to force people to focus on your analysis and push your agenda. GMarshal does nothing of that sort. He isn't serious about lynching DH, he is just trying to appear like he's helping town. It's actually been obvious that GMarshal was mafia ever since day 1. I was hoping to avoid pointing out GMarshal as scum in the thread, because if he knew that we caught him, that he would just pardon Coagulation and gain delay us for a day. But alas, he was too aggressive to ignore. Everyone switch your votes to GMarshal, otherwise he will pardon Coagulation and this lynch is going to be wasted. | ||
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On April 14 2011 13:11 chaoser wrote: Everyone switch your votes to GMarshal, otherwise he will pardon Coagulation and this lynch is going to be wasted. ...did you...did you really just say that? You're switch targets from the person you "checked and flipped red" to GM? If GM pardons Coag we still get two mafia. Man...losing trust very very fast lol That's not the thing. Look at how far out the Mafia team, GMarshal included, is willing to stick their necks to save Coagulation. Right now, if he pardons Coagulation that means Coagulation lives an extra day. And even if you lynch them the following days or shoot them at night, what it works out to is that extra Mafia member means an extra day of having 1 more KP, which means there's another dead townsperson. Furthermore, GMarshal not pardoning today means there's still the possibility of him ninja-Pardoning in the future, which essentially gives the Mafia an extra night to kill. | ||
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On April 14 2011 18:22 DropBear wrote: This is interesting. All your analysis of him was based on day 1. Did you see Coagulations defense on day 2? As I already stated, it was desperate and obviously scummy. You could be very right and Coag and Marsh could be scum but I trust you about as far as I could throw you. If you would like to critique the analysis, by all means do so. Don't shrug off my analysis just because you don't trust me. Read my analysis, and see if it makes sense. If it makes sense, then vote Coagulation. This has nothing to do with trusting me. It has to do with whether or not the analysis is good. If you are town, dismissing my analysis by attacking my credibility is a bad move. On April 14 2011 19:31 DropBear wrote: Also Flamewheel, it seems to me that a key point in your case against GMarshal and your case against Coag are at odds. All the people not voting Marsh for mayor debated in the thread. All the people not voting for Coag to be lynched debated in the thread. You really are desperate to find cases if your cases are conflicting. HOWEVER this point, although you've shown it accidentally, shows that something is amiss here. We have two seemingly different, very rapidly formed bandwagons. Which names are on both wagons? - Robellicose, who has done little but repeat himself and sheep. - Serejai, who has done little but troll. - Kenpachi, who has been extremely quiet and made a bizarre sheep post. I am interested in these three names. The discrepancy you point out is not a discrepancy at all. There was debate on DH/my candidacy because mafia were spreading doubt. There is debate on the Coag lynch because mafia need to split up the vote in order to save Coag. Makes total sense here. The combination of his being on both bandwagons, his bizarre posting and the subtle differences between this game and his Insane 2 town posting are why you should ##Vote Kenpachi Being on both bandwagons is not indicative of him being mafia. In fact, it proves just the opposite - he is actually a town bandwagoner. Gmarshal: 13 DoctorHelvetica Lanaia Robellicose Coagulation OriginalName Mig AirbladeOrange M0nsterChef kevconsim darmousseh Kenpachi Serejai Barundar Lemonwalrus Kavdragon GMarshal tnkted Latrommi Coagulation: 10 Protactinium DoctorHelvetica kevconsim chaoser urashimakt Rean Mig bumatlarge DarthThienAn Serejai Robellicose Kenpachi Notice how only 3 of the names are on both lists. This means that a majority of the GMarshal voters do not agree with the Coagulation lynch. If you look at GMarshal's strong defense (not a direct defense, but a credibility attack by me) of Coagulation, it makes sense. GMarshal and Coag have the same alignment. The people who are on both bandwagons are likely bored townies who don't want to spend time analyzing and are just voting the bandwagon. Mafia are definitely not jumping onto this bandwagon because there is way too much opposition to the lynch. Kenpachi may have some slight posting differences. But Coagulation has huge posting differences. Its day and night. Look over his previous games to see for yourself. Kenpachi is 99% town. Please reconsider your vote and vote Coagulation. | ||
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On April 15 2011 01:23 GMarshal wrote: Well what am I going to say about your criticism of my arguments? You brought up no real points other than its "bashing" not much I can reply to that, now is there? I could argue the point, but anyone who reads the analysis can come to their own conclusions, there's no need for me to get upset over it ^_^ I dont follow what you are implying about coag's meta, as far as I know every game I have played with coag he has played exactly the same. Either way, its irrelevant, we are either going to hang him today or have him shot tonight, that will clear up the situation wonderfully. In regards to protacs arguments, which seems to be what really concerns you; find that much of what protac says seems to make sense to me, his arguments are persuasive, I even agree with some if his points, and then I remember it coagulation I'm talking about, the guy who ten minutes into the day in Guts and Glory suicided into our medic, the guy who claimed medic to LSB in XXXVII based only on his gut. So yes, I do find the liars arguments persuasive, fw is a great poster and I find his analysis to be excellent, if he had tried this on almost any other player I would probably be waving a pitchfork and going for the lynch of his chosen target. Is that enough of an opinion for you? Anyway I'm done discussing coag, if you guys want to lynch him then do so, otherwise a vigi will shoot him tonight (assuming we have any around). I'm off to class, I'll be back later to scumhunt. After refusing to address my actual points, the pressured pardoner finally concedes that the analysis is strong. Yet he doesn't want to vote Coagulation. This is a mafia who doesn't want to commit to bussing a teammate. Anyway, due to the lack of votes for GMarshal, I'm going to switch back to Coagulation. When GMarshal pardons though, don't be surprised. | ||
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On April 15 2011 07:17 ilovejonn wrote: The only BAD situation I can think of for town is if we have no Vig's left after Pandain died. Therefore if Coag lives the night and claims a hit, and if no VIGI's step up to claim they shot Coag, I'm willing to bet Coag is scum. The bolded situation will never happen. Coagulation is Mafia. Lets say we go with your plan. If Coagulation doesn't die tonight, then Mafia know 100% that a Vigilante did not hit him. Thus, they would have one of their own claim Vigilante. Town keeps sheeping and Coagulation survives. "But this is too risky for the mafia to do!" you say. Not so. Like I've said earlier, Coagulation is already tied to all the mafia. Mafia have been pushing hard to defend him. They need to prevent Coag from flipping at all costs in order to prevent the entire mafia team from crumbling. On April 15 2011 07:40 DoctorHelvetica wrote: He didn't want to claim. Scums goal is to get the claim in right away. He didn't claim until I actually pressured him to. It sounds like you have a preset agenda, you don't want to analyse the information to come to a conclusion, you want to manipulate the information to come to your conclusion. He says he didn't want to claim. But if you actually look at it: he does want to claim. You didn't really "pressure" him to. That's what he wants you to think. I mean, you asked GM a really simple question. But instead of arguing/asking the mod in the thread like chaoser did, he decides its too much pressure and decides to claim? Lol. Anyway, the suggestion of leaving Coagulation alive so that GMarshal can check him is simply insane. Why do you trust GMarshal's DT claim? GMarshal claimed DT under no pressure whatsoever. He never gave a credible reason for claiming DT. He only did it to attempt to discredit me. In GMarshal's own words: "I was hoping to keep this as a surprise to the scum in the lategame, but I'm not going to let the assassin get away with shit". Now just take a careful look at this claim. GMarshal claims that he wanted to keep his role a surprise, but decided that revealing yourself to "out" an assassin is worth giving up the advantage over the Mafia? That statement has no credibility whatsoever. Furthermore, GMarshal shows no real reluctance to claim DT. He makes this claim right after he accuses me of lying about being DT due to phrasing. (Like seriously, DT checks return roles, not alignments, in every normal TL mafia game. Just because I didn't adopt this game's convention of adding "Goon" after "Mafia" I'm a liar? Lol, this is not mafiascum, we don't have "tells" like that). There is nothing pressuring GMarshal to claim. Only half an hour of posting his divine revelation, GMarshal gives up his role. On April 14 2011 11:30 GMarshal wrote: Well then I guess I have no choice but to claim. I'm a DT. I will *not* reveal who I checked as to not put them into any danger. I was hoping to keep this as a surprise to the scum in the lategame, but I'm not going to let the assassin get away with shit. Wait, you're saying that you're claiming DT because DH asked about the rules? Give me a break. You didn't "have no choice". It was only half an hour before you made your accusation, and between the time that you posted it and claimed DT, there was no sign that there was "no more hope" for your claim to be successful. You planned to claim DT all along. You knew that your accusation was flimsy, and claimed DT to lend credibility to your attack. What's most telling though is your last sentence. You were hoping to surprise scum, but decided it was better to reveal yourself early to discredit an assassin with shoddy reasoning because you don't like how the lynch is going? Mafia are trying hard to stop this lynch. Notice how GMarshal hasn't actually gotten anywhere with his "analysis", and still keeps prominsing to do more "analysis" (which hits a brick wall and never gets anywhere anyway). This is a classic contradiction that reveals your true motives. You pretend like you were trying hard to prevent giving up your role, but gave it up easily under no pressure and with no strong motive, unless of course, you are mafia trying to discredit a lynch on a fellow mafia. On April 15 2011 07:22 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Reading LSB's recent posts has put me in a bit of a new perspective. If he's scum, I doubt the mafia is all going along with this. Unfortunately Coagulations alignment gives a HUGE amount of information. I think we should lynch Rean or m0nsterchef, someone like that. Have GMarshal check coagulation on night 2 and report the results. This way we can get the "information" without potentially losing a townie. That's my plan : / Also going to take a look at: redFF Please don't get emotional here. This lynch is important. You say that Coagulation's alignment gives a huge amount of information. You also just admit here that you think Coagulation is scum. Then right after that you suggest keeping him alive and letting another obvious mafia "DT check" him? Like I just proved in the previous paragraph, GMarshal has an obviously false DT claim which is loaded with mafia motives. Its pretty obvious now that they are both on the same side. You are flip-flopping too much. I know you're town. Please consider this rationally and don't second guess yourself too much. Mafia know that letting Coagulation die leaves their whole team exposed (like you said, he gives too much information when lynched). The "mafia wouldn't stick out their necks that far to save Coagulation" argument doesn't hold here. Coagulation is Mafia. Therefore he should be lynched. On April 15 2011 08:39 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Yes, I think he is town aligned. No one is taking his posts seriously, he isn't doing anything to affect the lynch/mislead town, he's essentially just posting jokes. It's hard to read that and I think there are bigger fish to deal with. i.e scum actively trying to mislead lynches/town i.e lsb Scum want you to derail the lynch. Even though I agree that LSB is super scummy, it doesn't change the fact that his goal is to save Coag. There are too many people who haven't voted yet, and we can't afford to have them all come in and derail the lynch. They are unknown variables. We need to stay focused on Coagulation. People, don't sheep the mafia. Mafia is lying their way to town trying to save Coag. | ||
Protactinium
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On April 15 2011 08:56 DoctorHelvetica wrote: You are not the DT. You don't know Coagulation is mafia. Please read my post. You're just ignoring logic and are building cases off of false assumptions. You were elected based on the premise that you think for yourself and don't sheep town. But clearly you are being tricked by GMarshal's and others' statements and have not taken a step back to evaluate the situation objectively. Let me prove it to you. Right now, you just stated 4 possibilities in your plan: On April 15 2011 08:52 DoctorHelvetica wrote: DoctorHelvetica's Plan -GMarshal and the other (or if there are three all of them) check Coagulation on Night 2. -GMarshal announces his results. -If his results are incorrect, the other DT will claim and out him (and get medic protection that night) This is undeniably a winning scenario for town. Look at each scenario. GMarshal and Coagulation are SCUM. -GMarshal is forced to bus him. -If GMarshal lies about his claim to save Coagulation, the other DT calls him out and we lynch GMarshal and VIG HIT Coagulation. Netting a double scum kill. GMarshal is DT and Coagulation is scum -We lynch Coagulation and get a mafia kill. GMarshal is scum and Coagulation is blue -GMarshal is forced to lie and he will always lie that Coagulation is the veteran. -If Coagulation is actually a different green/blue role or an assassin the real DT will claim this and we lynch GMarshal. Both GMarshal and Coagulation are the roles they originally claimed. -We now have good information we can use to reevaluate Day 2 and we avoid wasting a lynch on Coag or Protactinium. However, there is 1 option you left out. Lets go with your stubborn assumption that I am not a DT, and that I in fact do not know Coagulation's role. If I am not DT, then you forgot the option that Coagulation is actually the Godfather. In this case, Scenario 1 would be false, and would work perfectly for the mafia. GMarshal would not be forced to bus him and will claim that Coagulation is a Vet. The other DTs will stay silent because they have no reason to believe that GMarshal is lying. Thus, Coagulation is saved for another day, town thinks he is "confirmed", and GMarshal is "proven" to be the DT. You did not consider this situation, which shows that you subconsciously believe my DT claim. I have already proven why GMarshal is blatantly lying about being DT. Please evaluate this situation objectively before jumping off a cliff in an attempt to be the town hero. You're trying to convolute things too much. The simplest answer is: I'm a DT, I checked Coagulation, and he is red. | ||
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On April 15 2011 09:11 Rean wrote: Protact, I know you agree with my points on Coagulation and GMarshal as for them being scum, but could you put your assassin things aside and give your thoughts on the other 6 guys I called scum please? I will give my thoughts after this lynch is over. You can have my word on that. We just can't afford to derail this lynch anymore than it already has. Look, the mafia is already making their move and trying to switch to LSB. | ||
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You didn't read my post! If you don't want to read any of the rest, at least read that one. You'll agree that it makes sense. | ||
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Also Dr.H you thinking I'm town doesn't clear you from answering my analysis even if its "bad" I expect a response tomorrow ^_^ See? Scum like to make these kind of ultimatums. You think that making these cute statements gives you the upper hand, don't you. Its so glaringly obvious that DH is town. If you really believe that he is mafia, then you shouldn't call yourself a good analyst. Also, where's that "analysis" you've been promising, huh?? Why should he respond to bad analysis? That just clutters up the thread. When you make a bad analysis, you don't have the right to force people to spread your bad ideas through the thread. Thats what mafia like to do. Cause confusion, and spam irrelevant ideas throughout the thread to disrupt the town agenda. | ||
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On April 15 2011 09:23 GMarshal wrote: but if coag were the gf then how would protac know? Are we ignoring the blatant contradctions now? He is a proven liar, he either think coag is black or is praying he guessed right and is a goon to "prove" his claim. But fine, you guys want to be stupid, then I'm not going to stop you. Also Dr.H you thinking I'm town doesn't clear you from answering my analysis even if its "bad" I expect a response tomorrow ^_^ ##Unvote ##Vote: Coagulation If coag flips anything other than "mafia goon" protac, you are toast, so pray to whichever gods you worship. Why people are still listening to a proven liar who is 100% an assassin, I will never understand. Hold on. Watch GMarshal grudgingly vote Coagulation all the while complaining about the lynch. Take note of this. This is our Day 3 lynch target. | ||
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I guess that takes away from the validity of my points, but I still don't trust that Proact is the actual DT since there have been slip-ups. Seriously, its getting really obnoxious. Stop trying to keep discredit me. Its not working, get it? Even Mr. scum pardoner was forced to agree with me and vote his scumbuddy. | ||
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On April 15 2011 09:44 Jackal58 wrote: We don't have to. You did that. Man why didn't you just play as Flamewheel and run for mayor without theatrics. You would have had my vote. Again, people keep missing the point. Why be boring and run for mayor normally when you can draw out all the mafia? Look. Everyone is making the false assumption that I was trying to win the mayor election at all costs. That is not true. I am trying to win this game. And even if that means taking the risk of losing the mayor election, look how far its gotten me? This game will be decided once Coagulation flips red. | ||
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On April 15 2011 09:55 GMarshal wrote: You argue with them, I'm tired of fighting against a know liar and the town just flatly ignoring me, and/or siding with the assassin. You know its pro-town to ignore the arguments of mafia peoples, right? Good job town, keep at it. | ||
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On April 15 2011 09:59 Jackal58 wrote: Do me a favor then. Present me with a list of your top 5 scum suspects sans Coag and GMarshall. Who have you outed with this gambit? If you are playing to "win" do it. I highly doubt you'll survive the night. So it's not like you are giving away any life or death information. I have no problems with running gambits. I enjoy doing it. And I know I'm going to piss people off in the process. But I don't do them knowing the final outcome is going to be me dying. If your gambit was to out all the mafia tell me who you outed. Like I told Rean earlier, I'll post that after the lynch. After this lynch ends, there is a whole 24 hours before night ends. Relax. It will come. No reason to post it all now when priority number 1 is making sure that mafia don't save Coag. | ||
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On April 15 2011 10:03 GMarshal wrote: Yes mr. confirmed assassin. Who has been caught in multiple lies. Hahahaha...Really? Is your best counter that I lied? Like chaoser kindly pointed out, LAL is a great way for mafia to try to defame someone when they have no way of countering the real arguments. Number 1 invisible poster: GMarshal. | ||
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On April 15 2011 10:07 GMarshal wrote: I would, but I am "obviously mafia" for claiming to oppose an assassin, and in generally for trying to stop the mob from being stupid. Oh, and for making every effort to get myself elected as a DT, that too is "anti town". I dont know what else to do for this people. I know! I know! Stop posting and REALLY become the invisible poster! If you're disappointed that town won't listen to you, maybe you should move to another town. Leave this town to me. We can handle this just fine without you! | ||
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On April 15 2011 10:09 LSB wrote: Wait for Coagulation to flip green, and me to get hit and flip green and wait for people to come back crying to you. Ooh I like this suggestion too!! As long as you promise not to come back until Coagulation flips green (not going to happen). | ||
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On April 15 2011 10:12 kevconsim wrote: I am a little bit confused right now. SO MUCH ARGUING + I am sick. Everyone seems scummy. ##Unvote ##Vote Protactnium For being "confused" you sure seem to know who you're voting for...I'd vote Coagulation if I were you. Just go through my posts to see why. | ||
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Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 15 2011 10:23 CubEdIn wrote: I agree that lyching Protact is dumb. He'll be offed during the night anyway. I still don't trust coag though, but I'll give him the benefit of a doubt since flamed is a compulsive liar apparently. I am a sad panda though, too much spam imo. Where is there a benefit of the doubt? Look at the analysis. Analysis is analysis, even if I lied about being an assassin. You can't lie in analysis unless the analysis is trash. Which it isn't. I've also explicitly stated how Coag and GMarshal are connected. So instead of throwing your vote away on GMarshal, will you please vote Coag? | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 15 2011 10:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Saying this bullshit now instead of trying to help. Vote LSB. Protact agree's he's scum with me so why not kill this idiot now, have GMarshal check Coag and if GMarshal lies to save him then we can nab both. I disagree. LSB is town. Until Coagulation flips red. Coagulation is THE lynch target of the day. Don't split the vote by voting LSB, that will just let mafia come in and switch the vote to a random townie. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 15 2011 10:33 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Case on Coagulation: [b][red] -Posting behavior -Making an epicfail vet claim -Popping out to accuse Protactinium at just the right times -Pushing a mafia agenda -Poorly reacting to an accusation against him -Fails to point out any reds, which is blatantly inconsistent with his town play. -As a cherry on top, DT check says Coagulation is red. Stop worrying about "what if the DT is lying?!?" There is a strong behavior case. Also, if the DT is lying, he gets shot at night, yay? -Has a bunch of people parrotting that Protactinium is lying in the thread -Has a bunch of people trying to derail the lynch so that he doesn't get lynched -Has Mr. Red Pardoner defending him Case on LSB: -Posting behavior -Misleading town -Complaining about no one helping/bad leadership while failing to provide anything concrete -Wants to lynch Protactinium, a ridiculous plan cleary this will waste a lynch -His "night plan" involves burning a town vig and lynching someone who most people believe is assassin -Usually somewhat helpful/optimistic as town, usually has a somewhat sensible plan that falls apart due to one simple mistake, not playing his town meta at all here -Has inactive players parroting his ideas without ever responding to his posts -Protact suggests that LSB be lynched later, after Coag flips red (And if I'm lying about DT, as you claim, why are using "Protact thinks LSB is scummy" as support for lynching LSB?!?! Does. Not. Compute) -LSB is inadvertently defending Coagulation, the other main lynch target. Which means, lets lynch him later! Lynch Coagulation, Vig hit LSB. Lynch GMarshal tomorrow. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 15 2011 10:33 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Case on Coagulation: -Posting behavior -Making an epicfail vet claim -Popping out to accuse Protactinium at just the right times -Pushing a mafia agenda -Poorly reacting to an accusation against him -Fails to point out any reds, which is blatantly inconsistent with his town play. -As a cherry on top, DT check says Coagulation is red. Stop worrying about "what if the DT is lying?!?" There is a strong behavior case. Also, if the DT is lying, he gets shot at night, yay? -Has a bunch of people parrotting that Protactinium is lying in the thread -Has a bunch of people trying to derail the lynch so that he doesn't get lynched -Has Mr. Red Pardoner defending him Case on LSB: -Posting behavior -Misleading town -Complaining about no one helping/bad leadership while failing to provide anything concrete -Wants to lynch Protactinium, a ridiculous plan cleary this will waste a lynch -His "night plan" involves burning a town vig and lynching someone who most people believe is assassin -Usually somewhat helpful/optimistic as town, usually has a somewhat sensible plan that falls apart due to one simple mistake, not playing his town meta at all here -Has inactive players parroting his ideas without ever responding to his posts -Protact suggests that LSB be lynched later, after Coag flips red (And if I'm lying about DT, as you claim, why are using "Protact thinks LSB is scummy" as support for lynching LSB?!?! Does. Not. Compute) -LSB is inadvertently defending Coagulation, the other main lynch target. Which means, lets lynch him later! Lynch Coagulation, Vig hit LSB. Lynch GMarshal tomorrow. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 15 2011 10:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote: YOUR POLICY WAS THAT THE PARDONER WAS ANTI-TOWN AND THAT THE PARDONER SHOULD NEVER EVER EVER USE HIS POWER AND IT IS INHERENTLY ANTI-TOWN YOU EVEN CALLED ME FUCKING SCUM BECAUSE YOU SAID "I WAS WILLING TO USE THE PARDONER POWER AGAINST THE WISHES OF THE TOWN" EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE DOING THIS VERY SECOND policies and principles my ass Do you not get it? Its a mafiyuh, durrrr. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 15 2011 10:55 GMarshal wrote: I'm not willing to be reasonable about this. I am sticking to my guns, if it means I die then so fucking be it. See you in hell fw! I do not lynch on the words of someone who is anti town I do not follow a liar I will not allow the town to do the same while it is in my power to prevent it. This isn't about weather or not coag is scum, I dont give a damn if protac guessed right. This is about fighting for my principles And I will be damned, to the pits of hell, if I go back on my principles. Ok ##Vote GMarshal | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 15 2011 11:16 GMarshal wrote: Because apparently I need to spell it out. These are principles that transcend this game. There are certain ways the town has to play to play well. There are reasons for LaL, and all my other policies, this isn't about the pardon being anti-town or not. This is about teaching you fools how town should play. If I have to die to prove the point that you are being stupid and playing badly then so be it. At least I will have played correctly. Sometimes its about more than just winning. How hypocritical! To you its all about winning. Pardoning is anti-town. That's a principle. Yet you're willing to break it. The reasons for LAL are usually bad. Just look at how you played in XXXVII. And now you decide you're the one who has the moral authority to teach town how to play? Lol. Although I guess since you're mafia I can accept this more as a "I want to win" rather than actual advice. Please try not to pass it off that way though. You'll give people the wrong impression. | ||
Protactinium
Canada550 Posts
On April 15 2011 11:23 LSB wrote: Wait, so what is your most recent claim? Vannila town? Naw. DT yo. | ||
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