EPT/in
TL Mafia XXXVII
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hint #1: i'm jewish hint #2: i can't eat the key | ||
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b) annul: random spamming so far. FoS's GMarshal and Chaoser for little reason. Even though he keeps saying we should lynch one of them, he hasn't actually pushed for them very hard. I mean, compare this to XXXV where he went balls out on LSB. He feels like he's picked a couple active people and voted them without a serious intent to start a bandwagon on them. Could be a townie looking for reactions or mafia trying to look like he's scumhunting. c) gryffindor: All his arguments seem pretty bad and he's very disruptive. Doesn't seem like he cares at all about being spammy. Probably town, but not a bad lynch regardless. d) On February 24 2011 11:05 icemac wrote: No, I'm not saying we hang you. What I'm saying is we keep the analysis for later where we actually have substantial data. then what the heck do you propose we do for the next 24 hours if not analysis? | ||
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On February 24 2011 11:23 annul wrote: you know i reply to shit if i am actually here i was at quidditch practice. just got home. so yeah i dont respond within the two hours that im afk sorry about that i mean for real in my "pile of shit" the third post, where i talk about chaoser's post -- and then indict GM's cells idea -- informs my vote. and i would hope that i play differently now than i do when i am mafia lol I didn't draw a conclusion from the fact that you are playing differently now than in XXXV. I know that you can change up your playstyle... What I am saying is that you know how to push a lynch (as demonstrated in XXXV), and the fact that you aren't pushing harder means that either (as town) you don't really have a good read on GMarshal or chaoser and are instead killing time and looking for reactions or (as mafia) are voting chaoser/FoSing GMarshal just to look like you are participating but not pushing hard enough for them to be lynched. I haven't decided which yet. | ||
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On February 24 2011 13:03 annul wrote: ##unvote ##vote gmarshal better than chaoser atm And annul, why are you voting for GMarshal again? If it's because you think his plan is scummy than you should lynch a large portion of town who like it. I certainly do. In other news here is my current lynch pick: icemac His relevant posts in spoilers - + Show Spoiler + On February 24 2011 10:20 icemac wrote: Seems like shit's hitting the wall pretty hard without any real leads so far. Since its too early, why not just get a semi-active who is probably smart enough to keep their heads in the game but not smart enough to post big as a mafia. I guess this is ironic coming from me seeing as how I've just got up to date & posting. On February 24 2011 10:22 icemac wrote: Also, I just want to say that these cell things is either big balls move by mafia or the workings of bad play. On February 24 2011 10:39 icemac wrote: Analysis doesn't mean shit Day 1. I don't see why you feel so compelled to pull stuff out of your ass and call it high level analysis. On February 24 2011 10:41 icemac wrote: I'm proposing we kill 0 of annul, GMarshal, gryffindor, chaoser and play it by ear afterwards. On February 24 2011 12:12 icemac wrote: Imo, we just need to get a vote out. With so many mafia on the floor, its trivial for them to just sweep something under the carpet. He has a reasonable activity level if you just look at the post count, but really he has said absolutely nothing. He says who we should vote for in a general sense, but avoids naming names. The one post that he does mention names in he basically just takes the top 4 most active players with no further explanation. He seems to be forcing himself to post when he doesn't actually have anything to say, so as to give the illusion of contribution. ##Vote: icemac | ||
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On February 24 2011 15:18 icemac wrote: So by responding to posts, I'm up for lynch? I've said a lot: the current way we're analyzing data isn't optimal. I don't think we should be you using scant data on Day 1 such as you, yourself, are doing. The reason I'm not listing any names other than the inactives is because I have no reasoning against anyone. I don't think I'm forcing myself at all; instead, I'm making meaningful posts on how town should act on Day 1 which is lynching inactives and semi-actives trying to stay in the covers. No, by responding to posts in meaningless ways, you are up for lynch. Basically you are saying we should go for a policy-lynch of some sort instead of going after someone we feel is mafia. Why wouldn't you go after mafia? Even if you want to lynch a semi-active you still have to choose which one which requires, you guessed it, analysis. Also, I was calling you out because you haven't mentioned one person you would lynch. General directives are ok, but only when you back them up with specific people you would lynch based on them. Then at least people can argue whether they fit the criteria you have laid out. Also, can you clarify what you meant by this post: On February 24 2011 10:41 icemac wrote: I'm proposing we kill 0 of annul, GMarshal, gryffindor, chaoser and play it by ear afterwards. I assumed the 0 was a typo for 1 because it makes much more sense as "I'm proposing we kill 1 of...". | ||
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On February 25 2011 05:08 Barundar wrote: Lol when did Jackal become gods gift to scumhunt? He sheeped after Coag onto GGQ in that game, messing up the Amber lynch. He also had me pegged as mafia in a post. In mini mafia V he tunneled pandain so hard he nearly lost the game for town alone. I wrote Jackal's playstyle into my post. I don't see you disagreeing with what I wrote there? I also explained why his first post differed from that. But you want "proof". Can you hand me the proof for annul so I can vote him then? I actually agree with LSB here that Barundar should at least be pressured. The last game I played with Barundar (XXXV) he tended to post with good reasoning and took all sides of an issue into account. In other words, he seems unusually angry and emotional defending annul (and FoSing LSB, come to think of it), which he doesn't exhibit as town in my experience. ##Vote: Barundar I would also like to draw a bit of attention to beneather. At the moment he has 3 posts in which he actually says something. On February 25 2011 07:15 Beneather wrote: I have been inactive I really do not know who to vote for so I guess I am going to bandwagon on Icemac. But if you look at who is voting for icemac it's the new players that are voting for him and that annul is getting voted by the more experienced players in the game. ##Vote: Icemac At this point in the game the major lynches are icemac and annul. Here beneather posts an excuse, a reason to vote for annul (because all the experienced players are doing it), and then proceeds to randomly bandwagon on icemac (the major competitor for lynch with annul at this point). This feels like an inactive scum random voting for the other wagon. On February 25 2011 08:33 Beneather wrote: You don't like aggressive players :O! So like do you want everyone to be all lovey dovey and not attack or try to put a FoS on somebody you want everyone to do NOTHING?! I have not heard anything from you but bandwagoning... No but like you've posted absolutely nothing not even a reason for your vote. Can we atleast get an explanation why you don't like annul's aggressiveness? Here Beneather praises aggressiveness and is a little bit aggressive towards an inactive. Of course, the problem with this post is that it comes at the height of the annul lynch, with Beneather never really addresses. This would have been a perfect opportunity to give his opinion on annul, but instead he calls out an easy target. Looks like trying to avoid the inactive label while avoiding the spotlight to me. On February 25 2011 09:05 Beneather wrote: I was just asking why you were voting for him. And then when kevconsim calls Beneather out for hypocrisy, Beneather immediately backs off and returns to inactivity. Seems like he's nervous about something, doesn't it? Anyway, it definitely isn't enough to lynch beneather, but I'd suggest that we keep an eye on him. | ||
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To me, the best explanation of the annul lynch was simply that icemac and possibly gryff are mafia and it was difficult to lynch anyone else. LSB may be mafia but I think icemac being mafia would open up that case a lot (if icemac is mafia then LSB is likely mafia opportunistically taking credit for busing annul after its clear he is going to die). Icemac has also done nothing today and soft defended annul a lot yesterday. Anyway, for now: ##Unvote ##Vote: Icemac | ||
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Barundar seems to be playing his pretty usual town self, and the conspiracy theory is totally town from him (see XXXV Barundar believes RoL bussed annul). I have a question: If Barundar is red, then why did he do analysis on Jackal rather than on icemac or gryff yesterday? Both of them had more heat on them and would have been an easier lynch than starting something on jackal. | ||
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On February 28 2011 03:20 kevconsim wrote: I suggest we do this or lynch Icemac. We can move forward by 1) lynching Barundar 2) lynching LSB 3) lynching Icemac Those are the only viable ways of moving forward i can see. I suggest we lynch Barundar today and if he turns out to be town we lynch LSB If you think they are both town then we should lynch Icemac Anyways ##VOTE Barundar All you have said in this post is that you think Barundar is red. Care to elaborate what in particular makes Barundar the most suspicious of the three? | ||
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On February 27 2011 19:04 Barundar wrote: Part 2: LSB’s bad logic and scumslips First of all, it’s difficult to pinpoint that exact moment in time, or post by annul, that convinces LSB that annul is mafia. In his first post: He is keeping annul’s play style in mind, so he is suspicious of him. In the next post LSB sound like he has already sorted annul as a lynch! Nothing happened between this post and the previous that should have raised his suspicion. But now it sounds like the lynch is already planned. While discussing with annul this post comes up. He is bad for town, but not necessarily mafia. His reason for voting. Doesn’t say annul is mafia. Note what a shit reason is, when was the last time you heard of someone who got persuaded to be modkilled? When LunarDestiny offered to get modkilled in mafia xxxvi, several mafia veterans felt the need to shout foul play in thread. Still isn’t mafia. Woops! Now not only is annul now mafia, he is also flipping red. Between the last posts annul hasn’t posted, there has been no new evidence. There is no smoking gun. Yet now annul is suddenly red. What’s even more interesting is this isn’t even brought up while talking about annul, it slips out when he is trying to connect others to annul. Now most people who has played mafia a few times will agree that there is no such thing as a proof of alignment, without either mod interference (like bumatlarge in mafia xxxvi) or stuff like DT checks after Godfather is dead. Even then a miller can mislead. In the end, the only sure thing is just a convincing analysis. For town there is always the possibility of being wrong. This result in a sliding indicator of suspicion against a player, that can get stronger or weaker depending on actions and arguments. Thus a vote for a townie is more a case of suspicion vs suspicion, where the guy with the highest amount of suspicion from the majority of the player gets voted off. LSB doesn’t go through a process of higher or lower suspicion. There is an obvious inconsistency between lynching annul for being obstructive to the town, to suddenly know he is red. This is not the only time LSB foregoes the suspicion state. For a lynch on Jackal, LSB demands “proof”: LSB is experienced enough to know there is no such thing as certainty, especially not on day 1. He dismisses the arguments I brought forward regarding Jackal, and while my arguments might be wrong, they should still raise suspicion. You can argue against the argument’s and disagree with the conclusions, but you can never get proof, since only mafia knows who’s red and who’s town. LSB, this is the most convincing part of Barundar's analysis to me. Basically, it says that you went from suspicion to knowledge of annul very quickly and without usual intermediate steps. It makes sense for this to have happened as mafia (as you could have decided to bus him at this point) but it makes less sense as town (because you need to have become more suspicious over time). What convinced you that annul was mafia and not just a good lynch because of his playstyle? The fact that you haven't really answered this question is I think what makes your defense unsatisfactory so far. | ||
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On February 28 2011 05:05 icemac wrote: ... Unless you're refering to this. How is that slip-up lol? Everyone in the game says they're town. Who doesn't? The arguments against you are: 1) Mafia didn't jump on you as an alternative to annul even though you had some votes on you. I realize its pretty hard for you to respond to this one. 2) You only addressed the annul issue yesterday to defend him. 3) You posted enough to avoid the inactive label and yet have contributed very little of value to town. Also, what made you post: On February 25 2011 12:30 icemac wrote: lada lada lada trollololol i guess i don't look so hot either According to you this isn't true...what did you think made you look bad? | ||
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I also want to switch so there is a close vote between two people so we can watch for vote switching. ##Unvote ##Vote: LunarDestiny | ||
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On February 28 2011 11:01 Jackal58 wrote: I believe it's my first game with him. How does he play when he's scum? Do nothing for a long time to avoid getting lynched? Honest question. This looks like a diversion off of icemak. Except everybody is jumping on board. I'm confused.  I don't like being confused. Basically, most people don't have super strong reads on icemac, so its an easy decision to switch off him to someone who has stronger support. Theres a pretty decent case on LD, plus it is foolishness making the case which, from what i gather, means there's a reasonable chance it is correct. Also there are advantages to having competing wagons. This way, if LD turns out town and icemac red later on, foolishness is under great suspicion. Also, if LD is red then people like coag who just switched back to icemac are suspicious. More information is good! | ||
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On February 28 2011 11:29 icemac wrote: unvote Vote: Icemac seriously if you are town vote lunar destiny. makes the vote closer and it will be the right vote! | ||
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Did LD's vote for himself near the end prove him innocent? I thought so, but then i realized he could just unvote if he needed to (although that might be suspicious). Overall I think it's pro-town but not overly so. I think we need a new crop of lynch targets for tomorrow. I nominate beneather and jbright as inactive people who have been more active in the past. I'm also interested to hear Foolishness' reasons for Seraph, as he's had Seraph pegged since day 1. | ||
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On February 28 2011 12:42 gryffindor wrote: This makes absolutely no sense, and setting up a chainlynch like this on someone who voted Annul OVER Icemac (townie) when annul had 5 votes and icemac had 5 votes surely wouldn't have been done by mafia. EXCUSE me to forcibly double post, but I am setting this one seperate from my main post which is coming, because I for sure want people to read this. Why setting up a chainlynch WHILE VOTING WHO I'M VOTING on me is laughable. I voted annul, in the middle of the lynch, and now LSB and why are pushing me? ha I voted icemac because I felt that scum TRIED TO WAGON ME as opposed to him, which made him look like scum. How can you even put me on that list? I had 2 votes on me when annul had like 10, because of my push on him bandwagonning and unvoting, plus LSB convinced me in PMs to vote him after he said he wouldn't push him regardless, and actually felt he was red. I was sniffing out whether or not it was a bus/whether or not he was blindly pushing like L or Ace would do, regardless of alignment. I'm just glad LSB isn't as good at lynching people as L, Ace, or I... hence why my target got lynched, and not his. Ummmm....what? I only mentioned you because I thought it was possible mafia didn't try to push the wagon onto either you or icemac because one or both of you was mafia (thus explaining the ease of the annul lynch). You are being really, really defensive when this is the only time I have ever mentioned the possibility of you being mafia in any of my posts. To be honest I find you really hard to read because you are all over the place, but the extreme defensiveness of this post over almost nothing makes me suspicious. | ||
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So, I'm going to vote Seraph because I really want to see him post more since he is supposedly an experienced player. LD would be a good lynch for informational purposes but I'm not convinced he's scum. ##Vote: Seraph | ||
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Anyway, here is a quick analysis of Seraph as to why I am voting for him. On February 23 2011 12:53 seRapH wrote: Chaoser didn't say anything new. He's repeating what GMarshal said, a typical "contribute without actually contributing" scumtell. But this early in the game I'm willing to excuse it, since new players and bad players won't have much to talk about anyways. At least Chaoser read BC's Town guide. On February 23 2011 13:00 seRapH wrote: 6 GFs would be completely imba (thought RoL did say behavioral analysis is key...) How's this: Let's concentrate on analysis and let blues do their jobs. Early on Seraph is basically doing nothing but excusing people for (admitted minor) scummy behavior and doing set up analysis which, while not explicitly scummy, is definitely something a scum would do as it gives them something to post about without making anybody angry. And, given how little Seraph has posted thus far, he is having trouble thinking of things to post about. Also note that he says to concentrate on scumhunting, which is ironic considering that he hasn't done any himself. On February 24 2011 17:07 seRapH wrote: icemac that was possibly the easiest way to dodge taking sides. The dude's probably going to get replaced or modkilled anyways. Seriously, take a stance on someone. Most of my game since my 6666th post has been going on through PMs, but I guess that was selfish of me >_> ##Vote Icemac Things to take sides on: GM vs Gryff- Cell System Annul vs LSB- XXXV Personally I doubt either of annul or LSB are scum, this is just a grudgematch. Coag and Kenpachi are playing more pro-town than usual (or maybe its just less spam?) People I'm suspicious of: Jackal- Playing a lot more passively than he did as town Icemac- Stop dodging the issues at hand Gofarman- Proponent of lynching inactives. Voting annul. A few more I'm not too sure of, will follow up on their posts tomorrow when I'm awake. Maybe. This is his first actual post where he says where he says what he thinks of people. Note that this is early on in the day. Seraph puts down a vote for the major non-annul lynch target at the time (icemac) and uses as his reason that icemac isn't being decisive enough. Of course, Seraph then goes on to basically completely remove himself from the annul vs. LSB issue by saying he thinks both are town which is the safe answer. He then proceeds to disappear for the rest of the day. Ser Aspi already pointed out why Seraph's big Day 2 post said basically nothing. And then there's this one: On March 02 2011 13:00 seRapH wrote: Few things: I never voted for ICanFlyLow. Ever. Check the voting thread, read through my votes. RoL you're cheating >=( @Axis of Evil post- Actually, the entire post that I made boils down to "IF YOU ALL FOLLOW ONE PERSON WITHOUT ANALYSIS OF YOUR OWN WE GET NO INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE GAME". But of course Ser Aspi you wouldn't really agree with that because you're just sheeping along with foolishness anyways. As for LD and JBright, my supposed "scumbuddies", I'm not going to waste my time defending them. @KP Issue- I think it's likely that there's 2 godfathers and 3 goons left. That's 3.5KP, which should be enough to do everything. Or our vigi is someone who's under heavy pressure and doesn't think anyone will believe their claim, or a noob who was convinced by mafia not to claim (but he should still claim anyways hinthint). I suppose its also possible that LSB/jackal is lying, but until someone comes up with a plausible explanation why they would do that, I won't believe it. As for lynch targets for today, I'd really like seeing a lynch on any of us axis of evil guys or gryffindor. Would really give us a good idea of where everyone stands, especially if they flip scum. I can assure you lynching me would only serve to get us a bit closer to LYLO, and also maybe let me make some memorable last words that you might actually listen to, so how about the other 3 guys?  @Jackal- You can't actually expect us to go along without telling us why you want kevconism lynched. Convince me. I don't think you'd lie about the RB, so I'm going to take any analysis you give me as town advice. You said absolutely nothing in this post about anything of substance. Who do YOU think are mafia? You talk about the town sheeping and then you are like "I'm going to suggest we lynch one of the 3 people someone else pointed out but not me haha" and then lightly question jackal. Seriously what the hell you can do better than this if you are town. Oh yeah, and for completeness you also mention that KP speculation which everyone loves to talk about and you spend 1/4 of your post talking about it with no actual progress made. In other words, it is a nice filler to make your post seem longer. | ||
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On March 02 2011 13:53 kevconsim wrote: Wait the voting doesnt end today? Nope. Voting ends tomorrow at 10 pm EST. Since you are on, what do you think of Seraph? Also, how about answering this question: Deconduo asked this of you a couple hours ago and you never responded. It seems like a reasonable enough question. Also, it is kind of embarrassing to have posted an analysis on the same person as foolishness. | ||
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First of all, unlike the annul lynch, since the votes for Seraph were so close and there was a reasonable chance of having the JBright wagon win (especially since the only reason Seraph won was because of a late shift) the vote lists for Day 3 should be looked at closely. The 5 (non-Jbright) people who voted for JBright were: GMarshal, chaoser, CubEdIn, kevconsim, and LastArgument I think it extremely likely that at least a couple of these are scum. Barundar already posted a good analysis on why kevconsim is a good candidate for lynch. But I want to introduce another lynch candidate: CubedIn, who I think is likely scum. Day 1: All throughout Day 1 Cubedin tries to say that annul isn't the best lynch while at the same time making sure he joins the wagon once it reaches the sweet-spot of after the point of no return but before it look way scummy to join the wagon. He also refuses to commit to an opinion. This is Cubedin's first post of substance: + Show Spoiler + On February 24 2011 19:14 CubEdIn wrote: Ok ok. I had a bit of time to go through the thread, and most likely I will be a bit more free at work today so hopefully I'll contribute more. But this is what I got so far: 1. Icemac vs Gmarshall. I don't think either of them is scum, and here is why: Gmarshall did play a bit different in Mafia 36, but the reason for that was, he was picked Bodyguard on day one. Which means that his place was safe, at least for the first few days. Nobdy was going to lynch him, even if several people would FoS him, which gives one a nice, safe place in the game. In this game, however, he does not have that advantage, so I think it's somewhat normal that he's a bit more touchy, a bit more aggressive, but at least he's trying to provide decent information and come up with a somewhat-well-though-out-plan. Basically, the only problem with his plan is that a bunch of the cells could be mafia-infested, but that can also work to town's advantage if the greens in the circle can figure out that the red is trying to play them. As far as nobody claims early, it should be ok, IMO. Besides, like LSB said, you can't really STOP any kind of town circle as long as PMs are allowed, so there's no reason I can think of to try to stop town this. At best, this is a more "imposed" cell that any player can embrace or ignore. I don't think it can be considered scummish. Icemac, on the other hand, is a smurf, so I can't know what he's usually like, but I'm guessing that he played with us before, and that's why he's being overly aggressive in some instances. I don't think that makes him scum though, especially if he played in Mafia 36 and he's got an idea about what GM "should play like", and isn't. If he didn't play with us before, he might just be a tad on the aggressive side by nature. I don't see why this is considered a bad thing, and I don't see why it's a reason to vote for him. To me, most of the things he said come out as being townish. Either way, it's not really a reason go wagon him no matter how you look at it, and I'm quite suspicious of the players that ganged him so fast. 2. LSB vs. Annul These are both quite experienced players, so I don't think you could get a "read" out of either of them. But it is reminiscent of the way LSB started out Harry Potter Mafia (when we were mafia together), and he was attacking RoL all over. Which lead to both of them being lynched and clearing up DrH of accusation for quite some time. Now I'm not saying LSB is doing this, I'm saying that EITHER of them could be doing this. Or they can both be town or both mafias. I know this is inconclusive, but my "bottom line" would be... don't go for either of them until there's further proof. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go read through the first two days of HP mafia. 3. Ser Aspi This is the most suspicious player to me so far, mostly based on one post: This is weird, really weird. Mostly because it came RIGHT after LSB made some decent points against Annul. If he wanted to vote for Annul he'd have had a lot of damn good reasons by just "believing" LSB's analysis. But instead he goes and basically OMGUS-votes Annul. Why on earth would you do something like that? Now, I'm not saying he's not right about the smurf/experienced thing on Annul, but he basically voted for him because Annul pointed him out for being a smurf, and he openly admitted that. That's most fishy to me, out of everything I read so far. The second suspect would be Jackal, but I doubt it's a good idea to lynch him over just two posts (like Ser Aspi too, actually). I don't find it odd that he's not being overly aggressive as usual, because it's very early in the game, but I do find it odd that he made the remark about the PM. That does seem a bit off-character. That being said, I don't have any idea of who to vote for actually, at least not yet. But I do know one thing: If Annul and/or LSB are not scum, they'll probably be taken out pretty early in the game, so I don't think it's smart for town to lynch either of them (especially not LSB, since he seems to be a target for Mafia early on when he's red, and if he IS mafia, then he has a pretty pro-town way of playing it, so I think it's safe either way). He soft defends annul by saying that we should wait for further proof before we lynch him here: I know this is inconclusive, but my "bottom line" would be... don't go for either of them [LSB or annul] until there's further proof. If you don't know what I'm talking about, go read through the first two days of HP mafia." and here: That being said, I don't have any idea of who to vote for actually, at least not yet. But I do know one thing: If Annul and/or LSB are not scum, they'll probably be taken out pretty early in the game, so I don't think it's smart for town to lynch either of them (especially not LSB, since he seems to be a target for Mafia early on when he's red, and if he IS mafia, then he has a pretty pro-town way of playing it, so I think it's safe either way). and also attacks the latest addition to the annul bandwagon, Ser Aspi, with this: This is weird, really weird. Mostly because it came RIGHT after LSB made some decent points against Annul. If he wanted to vote for Annul he'd have had a lot of damn good reasons by just "believing" LSB's analysis. But instead he goes and basically OMGUS-votes Annul. Why on earth would you do something like that? The points he makes are fairly valid, but he is clearly arguing against the annul lynch at this point. Note that he also throws 2 FoS's around (on Ser Aspi and Jackal) and then backs off them by saying that we should vote for people off one or two votes. In other words, he is being extremely indecisive and wants to leave his options open. Definitely something a scum waiting to see how the wind blows on annul would post. Speaking of wind blowing, here's his "I vote annul" post: + Show Spoiler + On February 25 2011 06:33 CubEdIn wrote: I find it very scummy that someone gets to tell me that I have to change my vote to one of the two (Granted, I didn't vote yet, but let's assume I had my vote on Ser Aspi). Who are you (Gryff) to tell me I have to change my vote? It's a game. It's definitely not LYLO. I can vote whoeverthehell I want. You disagree? Then try to get my lynch afterwards, but don't try and influence the vote while it's going on without any serious reason. You think it's scummy that some people can have their own opinion that's not similar to what everyone else says? How so? Is it not scummier to band wagon someone? That being said, I am going to bandwagon! But not because I don't have the balls to stick to my own choice, but because I found annul's downward spiral to be quite scummy. He seemed OK at first but then started to respond aggressively to the posts, which is exactly what I do when I'm scum. I still think that it's a bad idea overall to lynch someone with decent experience on day 1. I would much rather have annul as a day 2 lynch or so, but I already explained why I really doubt Icemac is town, and his posts made me think so even more. Also, RoL's intervention made me think that gryff (my 2nd in line choice, after S.A.) is town, because if he'd be mafia, the mod-intervention would be imba. And I know from when I was mafia in 36 that the mods posting in the thread is 90% to stop the town from taking the fast train to nowhere. That being said, I sure hope LSB is not wrong about this  ##Vote Annul Note that he spends the first half of the post getting worked up about being told he should bandwagon. I interpret this as the real CubedIn, he doesn't like to bandwagon unless he has been convinced that the vote is best for town. Then, as he himself acknowledges, he goes against his own tendencies to vote for annul even though he still doesn't think its the best lynch: I still think that it's a bad idea overall to lynch someone with decent experience on day 1. I would much rather have annul as a day 2 lynch or so, but I already explained why I really doubt Icemac is town, and his posts made me think so even more. So, why would he do this? Well, one explanation is that no one is scummier exists (although I think he says in the quote above that icemac is more likely mafia than annul, pretty sure there's a typo somewhere). The better explanation that fits all the data is that Cubed is mafia and wants to get on the annul bandwagon since it is really likely annul will be lynched. Day #3 Again, Cubedin fails to commit to any kind of opinion on the lynch until late. When he ends up on JBright, the vote post reads more like an excuse for not voting for Seraph. This is the first mention of CubedIn liking JBright more than Seraph or LD and, as was noted by lots of people, it was a very scummy argument that a) didn't involve any work on his part and b) doesn't actually address the most important part of any lynch, which is whether the person in question is scum or not. On March 03 2011 05:06 CubEdIn wrote: And one last thing: Two games ago, someone said to me (I dunno if it was Barundar or LSB or someone else, doesn't matter), that you have to lynch for information. Who do we get most information out of? I would guess Jbright because it gives us more information on the people "tied" to him (Seraph and LD, was it? Or someone else I'm missing, I didn't have time to go back through the thread all the way). When Barundar asks Cubed, very reasonably, to specify why Cubed picked JBright over Seraph or LD, Cubed responds with: On March 03 2011 05:44 CubEdIn wrote: Either is fine with me. Be it Jbright, Seraph or Chaoser. I chose Jbright because I saw a post where someone was grouping them together (JBright/Seraph/LD i think but I can't find it right now). I need to look through the thread again, but it was basically saying that if one of them is red it's highly likely that all three of them are. If it comes to it, I'll look, but, as I said, I'm ok with either. And to a lesser extent, I'd be ok with LD, but he seems to have picked up his posting a bit so I'm not willing to peg him as scum just yet. I am very much against the LSB lynch though, since he's one of the more experienced players, and people seem to be quite quick at jumping on the wagon. Bumatlarge made some interesting points, but it seems that we are dismissing the day-1 lynch which was largely attributed to LSB. Of course you can say it was luck (as he was probably gonna buss annul anyway), or that it's a complicated mafia plan, but the fact of the matter is that it got us a dead mafia. Also, Barundar, you're saying that you want to be lynching the mafia, but are you 100% LSB is red? Are we going over that whole "nobody should be sure" thing again? The post doesn't really answer Barundar's question. He randomly references one of Ser Aspi's posts that was made at the end of Night 2 as his support for not caring which of the 3 (of Jbright, Seraph, and Chaoser (?)) die. This is just a really strange attitude for a townie to have. There are three choices and it pretty unlikely that all three of them are mafia. Any townie would be looking over the three's posts to try and see which of the three was the most scummy to them. CubedIn just doesn't really care. So, this behavior doesn't make sense as town, but does it make sense as mafia? Of course it does. It is basically the same thing as the annul lynch. CubedIn wants to delay for as long as possible so he can vote Seraph if it looks like the Seraph lynch is inevitable (or if JBright is definitely going to get lynched) or can jump on JBright if he needs to. This is the post where Cubedin votes for JBright: On March 03 2011 08:43 CubEdIn wrote: Ok I'll vote for JBright as well. I went with Foolishness' idea and thought hard about the two: Seraph and JBright. There are more reasons to pick Jbright though: 1. His inactivity (I found like 12 posts of his, as opposed to 29 of Seraph, I don't know if I counted right but that's half the posts either way), I know this doesn't mean much but it's a start. 2. Coag's reasoning: He brought him up early, then others have been brought up. It's pretty clear that this mafia team is not defending their members, since Annul's lynch went pretty easy, but derailing lynches is a must if they want to survive. I'm inclined to think this can also be a clue. 3. I have looked at Foolishness' analysis of Seraph and I'm not convinced. It's basically a posting habits analysis, and albeit pretty conclusive, it doesn't necessarily mean he is red. Yes, he's behaving oddly, but not scummier than JB. That being said though, even if Jbright flips green, I think it's a good idea to get rid of Seraph tomorrow (meaning, not lose track of him after nightfall). I went back a good number of pages and didn't find any relevant clues that the two are tied together, so I don't think that they are very much connected by anything other than WIFOM. Or, if a vet wants to shoot someone, I think he would make a better target than LSB. My two cents. ##vote JBright To start with, CubedIn needs to make a vote at this point because he is leaving for the night. As mafia, he needs to vote for JBright at this point because it was close between JBright and Seraph. Of course he could just be a town voting for the wrong person. However, this explanation doesn't hold up as we realize that Cubed can't come up with many reasons to vote JBright. Reasons 1 and 2 are both questionable reasons at best and 3 is essentially saying why Seraph isn't likely mafia. Never does Cubed actually come up with a reason that JBright is mafia based on JB's actual posts, when this is the first thing a townie would do. And then, in the last paragraph, Cubed says that we should continue to look at Seraph after the lynch. This covers him in case Seraph dies and makes him sound like he was almost suspicious enough of Seraph to vote him, but was just a little more suspicious of JBright. In other words, it is a way to distance himself from his own opinion. On March 03 2011 09:07 CubEdIn wrote: That's true, but Ser Aspi made equally reasonable posts about JB as well (in day one as well as day two). I don't particularly like the guy, but he did bring up some good points, and he seems to think that both are scum, if anything, JB more than Seraph. I suggest we get rid of both, and whoever wins the tally gets lynched while the other one gets vig-shot. But I am sticking with Jbright for tonight. The fact that a bunch of alternative suggestions popped up makes me think Coag may be on to something.. And here Cubed pushes for JBright a bit, but again not hard enough to arouse suspicion should Seraph get lynched. For someone who thinks that a Seraph/JBright lynch is pretty much a wash, he seemed to be pushing for JBright pretty hard. Conclusion: Cubedin acted the same in both scum lynches: holding off until the last possible minute to give a solid opinion while subtly defending the scum. He then makes the best possible mafia vote. It could all be coincidence, but given his posting I think he's probably scum. If it were day, I would vote CubedIn. | ||
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Anyway, possible scenarios for LSB/LA: a) Both are town. Possible. LSB vigs LA thinking he's scum and LA turns out to be a vet. b) LA is red and LSB is vig. Can't be, because then LA would have died as it is unlikely there was a medic protect. c) LA is vet and LSB is red. Makes perfect sense. Mafia NK's LA and LA lives. LSB vig claims because he thinks everyone expects it and that it will semi-confirm him. d) Both are red. Also makes sense. The goal is to clear two people by verifying a vig claim and a vet claim at the same time. My impression now is that LSB is backtracking and making stuff up to justify his decision to take credit for the LA hit. Also, given that LA was very likely going to be lynched today, I think a smart vig, which I think LSB would be, would probably use his hit on a person who he thought was red and that he couldn't get lynched. As others have pointed out, Barundar (or a similar person) fits the bill but LA doesn't. ##Vote: CubedIn ##Unvote ##Vote: LSB Keep in mind that this is not an informational lynch. The only way we can get sure information out of the lynch is if we lynch LSB and he is a vig. Then, we know for sure that LA is a vet. Other than that, no information can be assumed. | ||
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I need to reread the thread. ##Unvote ##Vote: Chaoser Until further notice. LSB is basically mod-confirmed (or guaranteed coag lynch tomorrow) and I think chaoser could be mafia. | ||
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As for today, I would rather vote for kevinconsim than ohn today for the same reason we were deciding between kev and LastArgument yesterday. Kevinconsim voted for JBright day 3 which I still believe was a mafia-pushed plan (as evidenced by chaoser's vote for JBright). It is hard for me to believe that there was only 1 mafia on JBright and the rest of the people are all pretty townie at this point (according to LSB's list). Ohn I think is lurking too hard to be mafia -- on day 1 he made some decent posts that I think he would have kept making as mafia. It makes more sense for him to be a green who has lost interest in the game since day 1. ##Vote: kevinconsim | ||
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On March 07 2011 14:24 ohN wrote: Lol I'm lurking so hardcore this game. =P Uh, me not voting annul day1? There was a semi-strong case against him but honestly, I'm not sure anybody really expected him to turn out to be red until he openly admitted it before he died. I voted for gryff for his erratic posting behavior. Me not voting seraph is completely my fault for being inactive. Not voting chaoser? I still don't understand wtf happened. Like LSB looked so scummy and then like turned the tables so hard and chaoser turned out to be red, it was like magic. Oh yeah, and I didn't hop on the icemac wagon. He didn't look scummy at all. I seriously thought LSB looked scummy as hell but now, I have just have no f-ing idea. Maybe I'm just too noob for this game.  ...How was LSB scummy after a medic claimed to support him? It wasn't lylo so it didn't really make sense for the whole scum team to connect themselves that way. It wasn't like if we mislynched the game was lost. | ||
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On March 07 2011 14:24 kevconsim wrote: Since u misspelled my name it shouldnt count. Oh, I'm sorry. ##Vote: kevconsim Better? | ||
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On March 07 2011 16:53 kevconsim wrote: I helped vote out the mafia in the last vote. Why Why are you still convinced im scum. Because you voted for JBright in a close vote and I really think at least 2 scum were on that wagon. Plus you haven't done anything to make me think you are town... unlike many other people this game. You are a good lynch simply so we won't have to try and figure your alignment out later. The fact that you voted for annul and chaoser is something that any reasonably smart scum would do; they were both going to go and you might as well try to get some benefit from it. Ohn I actually feel is more likely scum after he responded to everyone's points pretty angrily, continued to think LSB was scummy, and then failed to respond to any further questioning. Seems like he is intentionally dodging at this point, as he obviously cared enough about the game to respond angrily to people's accusations. Gryffindor I don't feel is mafia because when he erroneously thought he was getting lynched, he was rubbing his townieness in our faces... despite his incessant lies and random defensiveness, I have a town read on him. I would be willing to lynch either Ohn or kevconsim today to avoid thinking about them later, but since more people seem to be willing to go after Ohn, I'll switch my vote over. Or Barundar, that dude came off scummy as hell yesterday. ##Unvote ##Vote: Ohn | ||
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Jackal58 CubEdIn deconduo GMarshal kevconsim why LunarDestiny Actually it's 5v3, so we don't need to hit godfather today, I don't think, although obviously that would be ideal. My vote is for CubeDin. I've already posted why I think this. Dude is playing smart scum and is a good bet for Godfather. ##Vote CubeDin | ||
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On March 11 2011 08:53 CubEdIn wrote: So all of a sudden I'm red for sure, because ser aspi said so. Ok. I get your reasoning. The town will decide. If LSB and Jackal are not on my side then I have no hope of convincing anyone else. No, like I have said before, it is because you have gone with town when the wind was blowing against mafia but sided with mafia when things were close. You have never made a stand or started anything against a scum. You've posted lots but nothing you have said has actually directed town closer to a scum... Btw, here is where I currently stand on everyone. LSB - confirmed town Jackal58 - 98% sure town CubEdIn - scummy scum scum scum GMarshal - town why - town So...by process of elimination, 2 of these are scum: kevconsim LunarDestiny deconduo Deconduo seems to have genuinely given his opinion on lots of things and seems pretty unsure about himself. I have a town read on him (although obviously he will need to be read in full later on). So, I think the 3 remaining scum are probably Cubed, LD, and kevinconsim. I'd vote for any of the 3 today (although I would prefer Cubed) but I'll follow LSB/jackal wherever they vote to prevent a mafia vote-switch win. | ||
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On March 11 2011 09:13 Jackal58 wrote: It's still possible that it is 6-2 1+.5 is still two kills. I'm gonna vote LD. If he isn't the gf there is still a possibility scum kp is down to 1. If it remains at 2 I'm going to have a really hard time choosing between CubEdin and Gmarshall. Providing I'm still alive. ##VOTE: Lunar Destiny I think from previous kill counts we know they have 2 KP left. But there could just be 2 GF's left. You and LSB should vote for the same person though so we don't split up the votes. I'll follow wherever you two decide to go. I think GMarshal is town. He seemed honestly betrayed that Chaoser was scum and defended him really hard while most scum would have been distancing themselves from him once it was clear there was going to be a lynch. If he is scum then man it was a nice play. | ||
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On March 10 2011 20:56 CubEdIn wrote: LSB, you were mod in XXXVI, you saw me as godfather, and you think this is how I played? I mean, would I kill Ser Aspi after he posted that I should die? Oooo... I just saw this. The reason to kill Ser Aspi is because he was pushing for you and you thought that you were on LSB's good side. If Ser Aspi (the other major town scumhunter) is dead and LSB likes you, you won't die simple as that. Also Ser Aspi was less likely to be protected by Coag than either LSB or jackal. He was a solid hit all round. Also, you were probably asleep when Ser Aspi posted that analysis of you, so there wasn't an opportunity to change hits even if you wanted to. Basically, in general people don't seem to take NKs as good evidence for or against people so it is unlikely you would be lynched for killing someone who was pushing for you. On March 11 2011 09:24 Jackal58 wrote: I'll have to sell LSB on LD then because I'm not positive cubed is scum. I think the sure thing is the safest bet tonight. If you don't think CubeDin is scum, then who do you think is? From what I can gather, you think LD for sure, and then either Cubed or GMarshal. Who is the 3rd? I would expect you of all people to have an opinion | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote: LunarDestiny | ||
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##Vote: Cubedin Yeah not a surprise I don't think. My thoughts on the remaining players: Cubed - Scum as scum can be. Kev - Less sure about this, but probably scum. Deconduo - Less sure about this, but probably town. GMarshal - town Let's do this. | ||
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i enjoyed myself. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + I hate you so much RoL | ||
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