EPTTL Mafia XXXVI
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Impervious
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On January 22 2011 01:05 Mr.Zergling wrote: woot Lol, jumped the gun a little bit there. | ||
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Right now, the only person I can really trust is myself, so myself as mayor would be ideal (at least from my point of view, however, it would also paint me as a target which would mean that it's likely that I'll die before the end of the game, so it's probably best that I don't have the position). But I doubt that is gonna happen (a number of reasons). So it's just gonna have to rely on luck for now, and hopefully we don't fuck ourselves over from the start. | ||
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On January 26 2011 15:15 LunarDestiny wrote: Take out Coag. It is futile to analysis him... Impervious was the most talkative person (maybe behind me) in Don't Lose Your Mafia. So something might not be right. He did only become talkative after day 1 though. Ya, but I had a read on someone at that point. I was somewhat right, too, if you recall. At the moment, I've got nothing, and I'm still not even 100% convinced that the mayor isn't mafia himself..... Just lurking so far. | ||
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Maybe this whole "black" theme is wrong? | ||
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On January 27 2011 09:35 Kavdragon wrote: Bum: I don't want to get totally sidetracked onto JUST analyzing you, but here are a few responses to your defense. I disagree with your statement that a good mafia player being mayor is better than a bad townie. Sure you might be able to catch a good player, but a bad townie wouldn't deliberately mislead the town. We would still get information, and the mafia wouldn't. That's pretty obvious to me. You argue that mafia couldn't pass up a role like mayor. You yourself didn't realize how powerful it was till late in the game. At the time you brought this up, there were only two candidates. If one was scum, and one wasn't, why would you not analyze them, and vote for the one you thought was town? Why don't you analyze us now? The fact that you voted for me, before switching to RoL shows clearly that you didn't have any opinion about which of us looked more town. That's EXACTLY the type of mindset mafia are in. They know who is, and is not a mafia, so they don't need to form opinions about how scummy people are, or are not. Also, that last statement was not directed at you specifically, it was a possibility of general mafia play this game. Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. | ||
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On January 27 2011 10:00 bumatlarge wrote: But he is right, during that period of time of the RNG debacle, I didn't read into either of them, which is probably the scummiest thing I did. We shouldn't be lynching based on pure information of who did what, but mostly of who is saying what, and how they correspond to clues. I have a bad habit of relying on information over analysis and I suggest you shake that now, especially in this set-up. Kav is saying, we can't just say one of them is mafia without analysis, which I agree with. If you want to judge Kav or RoL, you should take at least as much consideration into what you analyze about them then what you get from information that inevitably leads to WIFOM at this stage. Look at it this way - I'll assume there's 4 mafia (possibly more, but this is a very conservative estimate). Without the mafia votes, it should break even, roughly (assuming both are going to get 50% of the votes). Kavdragon got 18 votes, RoL got 11. If Kavdragon is mafia, and had the support of all 3 other mafia members, that would mean that the town voted 15:11 in favor of Kavdragon. A little lopsided, but still close. He recieved a little under 60% of the votes, which is definitely reasonable, because both players had a strong platform. If RoL is mafia, and had support from the other 3 members, then the votes would have been 18:8. That's around 70% voting for Kavdragon. Much further off. If there are more mafia players, it would look closer to a 50/50 split for Kavdragon if he was mafia, yet look worse for RoL if he was mafia. At the moment, we don't have much to go by. One thing we do have is who voted for who (not everyone has been talkative, and it seems that it's backfired on the people who have). I do agree that we don't have enough to go by for a solid case aganst any one player, including our mayor and runner-up, based on what they've said so far in the game. Which is why I think that looking at it from a statistical point of view may be our best option at the moment. | ||
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On January 27 2011 12:51 Kavdragon wrote: [sarcasm]Ya, voting for the one who was losing is really a terrible practice..... Especially since the mafia can add a few concentrated votes on a specific candidate they'd like to see in that position..... They must have been voting for RoL with me.....[/sarcasm]Dear Impervious: WTF?: Unexplained vote on RoL This was followed by him lurking(self described, not just my opinion) till he made these posts: Maybe, but If I'm town I'd be doing the exact same thing: looking for a scummy person and leading the town through example by analyzing him. Wrong. A mafia mayor would try to mislead the town down an unfruitful path, not encourage them to do actual analysis. Most mafia stay away from analysis because it's hard to write an argument against someone you know is innocent. Kind-of-sort-of but not really. The town does not split the votes 50/50 between candidates. One will look like a better choice to most, and the majority of the town will vote for that one. While yes, a single player would get more votes as mafia given the exact same campain and posts, it's NOT true that on average mafia mayors get more votes than town mayors. WTF? You say that a mafia mayor would get more votes because mafia would vote for him. Then based off that, you say that we should lynch people who voted for me? You are calling me scum?( If I'm not scum, why would scum vote for me? If scum didn't vote for me, why lynch people who voted for me?) Lemme get this straight: You think that I'm mafia because i won. LOL. By your logic we should always lynch the mayor! Just because the mafia can stack a few votes on their candidate doesn't mean that they will win every time. Wait, so you're advocating that we RNG the lynch? We have 30 pages of information, and I don't see you using any of it. Lol, "worried". If you're so worried, why don't you analyze me! Put some money where your mouth is, and start actually contributing. (And don't say there's not enough information to analyze me, I've posted twice as much as almost anyone. There's TONS of material to pick from) Wrong. Why do you think that town would split 50/50? No, I don't think they're guaranteed to split 50/50. But, like I said, both were strong candidates, and a 60/40 split, roughly what happened, is an expected, albeit fringe, result, when you're dealing with 30 or so votes. Look, Analysis trumps statistics every time. If this game could be won with stats, it would be played with a calculator in math club. It's not. It's an analysis game. Agreed. But statistics can be used as a powerful analysis tool, and discounting one method of analysis is a foolish thing to do. Oh good lord, this makes me sad. no, no, and no. Who did this backfire against? Bum? He was certainly not the most vocal person. Is this an attempt to scare people into being quiet? Here, let me speak your language: Statistically speaking, more than half the players are town. This means that statistically speaking, if we lynch someone, they are town. You're not even getting the statistics right either. Show me why the town is likely to split 50/50. Statistically speaking, if we don't lynch someone on the first turn, it becomes more likely to lynch them on the next turn since they've killed some more of the town by then..... We've gotta try to get them asap..... Please, we have been extremely fortunet to have so much information to go on for the first day. The mafia will try to discourage us from doing analysis, saying "there's not enough information to go by" or "It's day one, nothing's happened". This is exactly the kind of complacency that gets the town killed. So far I'm the only person doing analysis. This too, is a sure road to failure. As RoL said, leaving the work of the town to one person will end in a loss for the town. I won't be right about every lynch, the town needs to work too. Clues are a good start, but we cannot win based off of clues. tbh, I'm kinda glad you called me out here. Hopefully it can get some discussion going. We need more than we've got..... | ||
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lol. Great reasoning there LunarDestiny. | ||
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On January 30 2011 11:59 darmousseh wrote: The only person with a reference to cannibalism I could find by anyone is this http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=106991#14 But that is really a huge stretch. Frankly, if you've ever read through that, you'd find that it's actually more fucked up as the connection you're trying to make here is..... I definitely think there's something up with Jackal58 though. "Steel", "Black", and relatively inactive which may indicate that he was the one that the clues are about? | ||
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On January 30 2011 23:09 Jackal58 wrote: Coag's insanity is contagious. Nemesis and Beneather are both the players implicated in the clues. Both almost verbatim. But you guys want to run a stretch play. Here are the members of my bandwagon. . Nemesis Impervious Coagulation Beneather LunarDestiny darmousseh Some names look really familiar don't they? Looking at your profile, there's not much there. One big fucking obvious thing is big Ben..... Wearing a BLACK uniform and part of the STEELers football team..... Plus, you seem to be relatively inactive, and the hosts specifically mentioned that they left clues to someone who was not active during the night..... My bet is you're a SK..... It's not hard to put the pieces together, man..... There's no real band-wagonning going on..... I'm much more convinced that you're a SK than that Beneather is mafia (although it definitely looks like a possibility, so I'd probably be voting for him tomorrow - no guarantees, it'll depend on how things go). | ||
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Doesn't mean you submitted a night action though. | ||
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Suddenly you're under fire and you backlash directly onto the people voting for you, rather than offer anything constructive (short of a list of who are voting for you)? Coagulation Beneather LunarDestiny darmousseh Nemesis You've basically listed the group that I thought were mafia, except you've added me in on that, simply because I've voted for you..... I've already voted once for Coag (I was hoping we'd get him). However, I'm starting to think that he's actually not a mafia. If you noticed, Beneather, LunarDestiny, darmousseh, and Nemesis all voted for RoL yesterday, and we found out that it was a town kill, not a mafia kill. I agree with your analysis on them, ofc. But they can wait. | ||
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On January 31 2011 02:18 Jackal58 wrote: Defending myself is not constructive? Pointing out the members of the bandwagon, 2 of whom are obvious scum/SK, is not constructive? Pointing out that the person calling me "inactive" has ZERO posts in the time he called me inactive is not constructive? Pointing out our 2 prime candidates also had ZERO posts during night and one of them didn't post their night actions is not constructive? Pointing out an obvious shift from Nemesis and Beneather and accusing me of things that are simply not true by people that are guilty of the inactivity I've been accused of is not constructive? My god man open your eyes. Ok. First of all, you seem to be relatively inactive through the entire game so far. I have posts (not necessarily every day on this thread, but on TL in general) every freaking day. Usually multiple times per day as well. Both of us haven't been posting much in this thread. However, there are some pretty obvious clues pointing to you, and you've put a FoS on me? Dude, seriously? I'm done with arguing this one..... Defending yourself is one thing - coming up with a better alternative for the town is another..... | ||
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Options are Nemesis and Jackal atm, because of the clues. Beneather is a bodyguard, so we really shouldn't be lynching him yet, regardless of his role..... Unless I've missed something..... Why not lynch one now, and get the other tomorrow? | ||
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I don't see a downside to lynching him. The mafia won't hit him if he's blue, SK won't hit him if he's blue, so his power is now pretty useless to us even if he is blue (granted, we could be lynching someone else instead though, which is a small downside)..... If he's green, well, we made a bad lynch, but the clues did point in his direction. If he's red or a SK, we've done a good job. | ||
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First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it.....  | ||
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On January 31 2011 13:10 Coagulation wrote: I think we should go back to putting pressure on nemesis. When nemesis was on the block. I remember alot of people scrambling to incriminate other people. k | ||
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On February 01 2011 04:12 Kavdragon wrote: Haha, yes. That's exactly how it's supposed to go: Pressure the Mafia into posting more, analyze posting, convict, then lynch. Thank you for playing the game! So far I've passed the first stage, and I'm working on the analysis. We'll see if that leads to Conviction, or Vindication. You forgot the little face..... At least quote me properly.....My analysis of you is "woman". You jump to conclusions, don't read half of what I say, and even then, don't comprehend it properly..... Now, onto your methodology: If I had something to hide, why would I take the bite? It only gives you more information to base an unfounded assumption off of..... Of course, then you could claim that I'm trying to cover my tracks by appearing to take the bite? And then we're in a WIFOM situation..... While the clues are nice, and analyzing everyone's posting history with such extreme scrutiny is an impressive accomplishment, looking at the logic behind what people do (not say, do) is also important. We're really, really early in the game so far, so there's not much to go by yet. | ||
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On February 01 2011 06:03 CubEdIn wrote: Hello everyone. Sorry for not contributing today, but it was hell. I had two exams in the morning, then I had to work for 8 hours. I'm not even gonna bother reading through everything, but I skimmed through, and I looked a the voting thread. First of all, town sucks. Not because there's no analysis going on, not because people aren't active, not because of lack of information, but because everyone is being erratic. There's no way in hell we'll be able to point out mafias if we keep behaving like this. We can't have 3 people with similar number of votes each night, it doesn't help. Here's what I think: a) Lynching Beneather is ok, as long as you guys do it for more than just clues. I didn't see any tangible proof in what he posted so far. Yes, master chief sounds like chef, and there's the dog reference, but if you want to push for him, then also make a case with posts and possible scummy moves, don't go all-out on clues and if you find out he's town then say "oh well, the clues kinda-sorta pointed at him". It kinda makes sense that he is red because if GM isn't lying, mafia hit him, so they might try to open up space to kill mayor. But it is also possible that GM is lying and they want to get Beneather lynched in order to open up a door to Kav. b) Lynching Nemesis is not ok. I'm gonna say this for the 4th time. Last night he almost got lynched. He was almost sure he'd be lynched, he posted PRO-TOWN. Mafia doesn't do that, at least not with that much subtlety. He just accepted his faith and pointed fingers people we were well under the radar, there's no decent reason a mafia would ever do that. Also, part from me, not many are struggling to defend him, don't you think mafia would try to do that? If you're lynching based on him being a probable SK, then go for it, but he's not red, goddamn it. c) Lynching Jackal is kinda odd, I don't feel good about him but it's probably who I'll vote for (i'm not even considering anyone other than these two). The biggest issue is that it all started from nothing, and it snowballed from there. So there's really not much pointing at him. I would say that until we lynch a red, we won't have any real evidence of who is who, so we might as well just RnG the lynches. It's not like people aren't voting for 5+ players each night. Kav: How would you feel about lynching Beneather? I'm sorry if you already answered this, too tired to check in detail. Please also consider the (albeit unlikely) possibility that GM is red. If we're wrong about Beneather - we've taken away one of the things preventing our mayor from biting the dust..... If we're right - we could have saved that kill until later..... It's not like he's the only mafia in the game, after all..... I think lynching him is a bad idea right now, for that sole reason. There's some somewhat convincing arguments against Jackal and against Nemesis, as well as some mediocre arguments against others (I have a feeling that some people are going to come after me eventually as well, but it's not unexpected when the clues are this vague). Unfortunately, we've gotta vote for someone in this setup, and if they are the best candidates at this moment, we'd be idiots for not giving it a shot now. I realize that the mafia will try to snowball shit like this. But if the mafia keep trying to snowball things, we'll catch a slipup eventually. There's no way they'll be able to point fingers at the majority of the town before we can catch some kind of specific pattern going on. As long as we're careful to watch for it well enough. | ||
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Plus, from the sound of it, one of the SK didn't submit a night action..... No guarantee on it, but it sounded like it imo..... | ||
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I don't see how knowing the number of SK being as important as knowing if we got a hit on the mafia or not - if we got it, we may be able to get a couple more in the next few days. If we wait a day to know, it may screw things up..... At least, that's my thoughts on it. | ||
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On February 01 2011 15:13 Coagulation wrote: so that pic pretty much confirms jackal is town How so? All it does is tell us we're fucking idiots for following the clues like we have been. | ||
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On February 02 2011 14:13 Jackal58 wrote: You really going there? Seriously? For Reals? We have a scum mayor? My mind is full of shit atm. I'm gong to bed. Your post just fucked me up. That was one of the things I was worried about at the beginning..... Fuck..... And with the way this has been going, it makes quite a bit of sense..... So, if that's the case, what would our best course of action be? | ||
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Does it really make any sense that we haven't had a single fucking Mafia kill yet? There's something fishy about vig and SK hits not hitting a mafia at all (especially since any decent SK would be thinking that the mafia is winning, and therefore try to kill scum instead, and the clue last night really signals that a vig made a hit). The only way that could make any sense (without some extreme luck by the mafia) was if the mayor was lying to us. And if he was, it would be very, very easy to turn us against the wrong people..... | ||
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If so, the DT could check tonight to confirm. Then again, how can we prove that the "DT" isn't lying? | ||
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On February 02 2011 14:53 Coagulation wrote: if mayor is mafia he will be GF no doubt. Didn't they have to choose who the GF was before we chose mayor? Or wasn't it a simultaneous thing? If so, they couldn't have guaranteed that the GF would be the mayor..... | ||
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On February 02 2011 16:05 Node wrote: Rolechecks on the mayor return "Mayor" regardless of alignment. Wow. We could be completely fucked at this point..... | ||
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What to do about it now though? If we could use him as a KP tonight, to get rid of a suspected mafia, and lynch another suspected mafia tonight, we could figure out what we do with LD tomorrow (possibly lynch him tomorrow if no bigger targets for tomorrow night show up). If we lynch him tonight, yea, the game goes on longer, but the mafia still has a pretty big advantage. It's in his best interest to play along as long as possible, because he'll live as long as possible. If he steps out of line, we can get rid of him the next day. As a bonus, we may even knock the KP of the mafia down in the process. That is, however, assuming that we have 2 good targets for tonight. If not, it's more worthwhile to lynch LD right now. One thing I'm worried about is if we actually have 2 SK, and the mafia only has 1KP..... So, do we have 2 good targets for tonight, other than LD? If so, we really should think about lynching one of them instead, rather than get on this giant bandwagon that everyone seems to be on. | ||
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On February 04 2011 07:02 LunarDestiny wrote: I would volunteer to shoot that Brownbear. Dude alomst got me killed. I say we let him do it. If he doesn't, we lynch him tomorrow. | ||
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Make up your damn minds..... | ||
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On February 04 2011 07:27 Divinek wrote: the amount of mindless sheep in these games hurts my soul At the moment, it's pretty damn convincing..... A couple things seem a little too easy at the moment, which is where I have some concern, but it seems like it is definitely the best course of action. | ||
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I'm wondering though, maybe this was too easy..... | ||
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And that evidence had better be brought up by someone other than LD..... If we can give two good guesses on mafia players, why not use a 2nd KP if it's available to us though? We're gonna have to lynch him at some point, may as well make him as useful as possible in the meantime. | ||
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There's nothing sicker in society than a lack of liquor and sobriety. | ||
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On February 05 2011 12:51 Kenpachi wrote: wait, WHAT? Did you read the last ~15 pages or so? A lot of shit happened recently..... LD is the SK..... And probably gonna be lynched today (unless we can somehow identify the last 2 mafia members). | ||
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Leaving LD alive means more people die..... I mean, if we can convince him to hit one of the two remaining mafia tonight, then we'd end up winning 1 day earlier..... But we still have to lynch him anyways. I'd rather play on the safe side. And lynching LD will make the game go on an extra turn, providing us with another clue. | ||
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Lynch LD, then worry about it tomorrow..... Keep discussing if you want..... | ||
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On February 06 2011 14:59 Kavdragon wrote: Dear Impervious: v2.0 A lot of interesting points, but, overall, a bunch of bullshit. You conveniently forget about stuff like this: On February 04 2011 06:10 Impervious wrote: Ok. So, I think we've established that LD is a SK. What to do about it now though? If we could use him as a KP tonight, to get rid of a suspected mafia, and lynch another suspected mafia tonight, we could figure out what we do with LD tomorrow (possibly lynch him tomorrow if no bigger targets for tomorrow night show up). If we lynch him tonight, yea, the game goes on longer, but the mafia still has a pretty big advantage. It's in his best interest to play along as long as possible, because he'll live as long as possible. If he steps out of line, we can get rid of him the next day. As a bonus, we may even knock the KP of the mafia down in the process. That is, however, assuming that we have 2 good targets for tonight. If not, it's more worthwhile to lynch LD right now. One thing I'm worried about is if we actually have 2 SK, and the mafia only has 1KP..... So, do we have 2 good targets for tonight, other than LD? If so, we really should think about lynching one of them instead, rather than get on this giant bandwagon that everyone seems to be on. And we ended up doing exactly this, allowing us to get 2 freaking mafia members overnight. I'd be a terrible mafia player if I was suggesting things like this..... Not to mention I was one of the first to switch my votes to a mafia member..... On February 01 2011 06:19 Impervious wrote: If we're wrong about Beneather - we've taken away one of the things preventing our mayor from biting the dust..... If we're right - we could have saved that kill until later..... It's not like he's the only mafia in the game, after all..... I think lynching him is a bad idea right now, for that sole reason. There's some somewhat convincing arguments against Jackal and against Nemesis, as well as some mediocre arguments against others (I have a feeling that some people are going to come after me eventually as well, but it's not unexpected when the clues are this vague). Unfortunately, we've gotta vote for someone in this setup, and if they are the best candidates at this moment, we'd be idiots for not giving it a shot now. I realize that the mafia will try to snowball shit like this. But if the mafia keep trying to snowball things, we'll catch a slipup eventually. There's no way they'll be able to point fingers at the majority of the town before we can catch some kind of specific pattern going on. As long as we're careful to watch for it well enough. I already saw the exact "clue" you saw in me by that point..... And I pointed out some decent logic as to why we shouldn't lynch Beneather (in case we were wrong). As soon as it was confirmed that he was a mafia, and we weren't gonna lynch LD, I was one of the first to switch to voting for him..... I was playing very smart for a mafia, right? ..... Impervious has FoS'd two people in particular that I remember: Jackal, and Me. Mostly just trying to discredit me/make me out to be mafia. ANY analysis of my posting at that point would have shown me to be town, or SK. Only Mafia would have had the motivation for turning public opinion against the mayor, more importantly the census, at that point was Mafia. Yes. The clues definitely looked like they pointed to Jackal..... That clue was brought up by Coagulation: On January 30 2011 11:24 Coagulation wrote: the only clue i could find http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Jackal58 Steeler picture in profile So are you suggesting that it's gotta be me and Coag (nemesis also played a part iirc, and he was already confirmed to be a non-red) as the last 2 mafia? Cause I wasn't the only person who thought it was a decent connection..... And I voted for Coag earlier on..... Really, if you think you're so good at analysis, how come you really fucked it up here? I was not one of the people who started the bandwagon..... Plus, I didn't stay on Jackal - a "better" option came up (who ended up being a greenie, unfortunately). It's not to say that I'm not still suspicious of Jackal, but, recently, there's been better options to vote for. Right now, it's LD so we can make the game go on as long as possible. Also, about the RNG mayor - any mafia would want to snag your position..... The rest would be vying for a spot as a bodyguard..... Of course I think it's a better idea to get someone randomly for the position (assuming the mafia try for the position harder than the average townie, since they want the position more, they're more likely to get it). From a statistical point of view, we're less fucked. And you freaking picked a mafia as bodyguard yourself..... It doesn't exactly help your case there..... Of course I don't think you're a mafia anymore. You ended up snagging us 2 red kills. Sick job. But it'd be a waste of a lynch on me..... But, of course, you won't figure that out till we win, or you end up lynching me anyways..... Meh, I dont' really feel like analyzing more of this BS right now..... | ||
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On February 06 2011 22:12 Jackal58 wrote: CubEdIn If this: Isn't this: ![[image loading]](http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/8131/avatarindy2xq.gif){kind=avatar} I'll eat my shorts. If you're worried about LD he can shoot me tonight. Mafia will stack another on me and I die. But we're down to 1 scum. Somebody is going to die tonight anyways. I volunteer. Actually, I kinda like this idea. If LD shoots Jackal, we don't lose a townie extra (since he claimed vet). And we can guarantee the win by tomorrow if we're right on who we lynch tonight. Plus, as I'm a little suspicious of Jackal as it is, if he really is a red player, then we end the game overnight, regardless of who we lynch. We can both verify his blue claim (since mafia won't hit him if they think he is blue anyways), and get a shot at hitting a mafia at the same time. Do we have a solid choice for a mafia member to lynch though? I'm not sold on CubE yet..... | ||
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I'll do something, probably tomorrow or Tuesday. Right now, I've got a CSL match to go win, and then a Superbowl to watch. | ||
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On February 07 2011 12:10 Jackal58 wrote: Continue to annoy Cubed and Divinek? Shoot me bitches. Nawe, keep him alive. He can suffer the defeat of his beloved Steelers for as long as possible that way. | ||
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Actually, I'm not sure if this is the right move. If there was 1 left, would it really matter right now? It may be better to be sure that there is 0 SK left, or know how many blues are left. There shouldn't be a change in reds from last night. At least, that's my view of it imo. | ||
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1 SK + 2 mafia KP or 2 SK and 1 mafia KP How do we know that it has to have been the first scenario? While unlikely, it is possible that there were 2 of them, and they hit-stacked/hit other SK/hit vet/hit protected townie at some point. And, if that's the case, we could still be in trouble if we don't find that SK soon. It's also possible that the nights with 3 kills were actually caused by vig shots, and there is only 1 SK and the mafia only had 1 KP as well. Also, as much as it may suck being kept out of the loop, it may be better if the mafia doesn't know how many blues we have, in case that's what Kav elects to use the census for. I think it'd be better to keep the info within the mason circle. As a DT, I'd be wondering what alliance GMarshal is. Just to be sure. As a blue or green, he'd be a high priority target so they can get at Kav (assuming both are townies), and as a red, they'd leave both him and Kav alone, for obvious reasons. Just throwing some quick thoughts out there about the night phase. | ||
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:S | ||
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Barundar, this should help your curiosity. Damn, this is really not looking good for me..... A Gee Gee (school mascot) is a nickname for a racing horse - the first one out of the gate at the beginning of the race, symbolizing the fastest and most eager horse in the race..... I've been working on my reply to Kav. It's not done, but I'll be able to post it sometime this afternoon (I've been busy, but at least trying to keep up with the thread). | ||
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On February 06 2011 14:59 Kavdragon wrote: Dear Impervious: v2.0 IN TWO PARTS! + Show Spoiler [Clues! Good ones, I think!] + I haven't had much time these past few day because of school, but I managed to look back over the clues from the past days. I've been looking at the all wrong, and nothing has seemed to work out very well, but after reviewing some of the stuff in the other clue game LSB ran, I think I have a better idea of how they work. Well, I’m glad you’ve got an idea about how the clues work….. So far, nobody seems to be on the right track….. On January 27 2011 11:01 Node wrote: The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. For real cries And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... And then the flash of steel from real guns Meapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body. The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone. It has already been pointed out that this sounds like a Zergling. Within SC2 books, Zerglings are often described as being the size of "deer", so that makes sense. A scream no animal can make? Fits. All the descriptions seems to work well. Cool. Could say the same about a Hydralisk as well….. However, you seem pretty tunnnel-visioned towards me right now….. On February 02 2011 11:25 LSB wrote: I made my way into the caves, and saw all that I needed to see. On the edge of the light, ilovejonn’s body sprawled on the floor. A beast hunched over him, an alien form that I had never seen before. “I’m sorry. I do this for the greater good,” it growled, and then the ground cracked open under it, and it disappeared. Further evidence of a zerg burrowing. More evidence that it's an alien. Pretty sure it's a zergling at this point. Now, what could the zergling refer to? No one who is alive has any reference to zerglings, except for maybe Impervious's post icon, but icons can change as the game goes on. Heck, even mine has changed this game. His will change as soon as he hits.... Oh wait. Huh. That's strange. Impervious' posting icon seems to have been permanently set to a zergling. Ok, I really can‘t refute this one….. Yes, that section of the post can be interpreted as a zergling. At the same time, that could not even be the clue in the post….. Of course, you won‘t really find out until you end up lynching me, right? The town can really afford a couple of bad lynches, right? + Show Spoiler [Post Analysis!] + Well, I've never been one to lynch off of clues, so let's take a look at your posting! On January 27 2011 09:49 Impervious wrote: Thing is, if you're mafia, then you'd also know who else is mafia, and could pick someone who seems to be playing a little wierd, single them out, and lead a lynch. With this game's setup, since it's impossible for us to directly know if it was a mafia that was killed or not, or if the info from the census ability is actually legit, trying to single a non-mafia out for an obvious lynch right now is exactly what a mafia mayor would try to do. And a mafia candidate would be able to get more votes, on average, because they could get votes from other mafia players to secure themselves in the position. Tbh, I say we start lynching ppl who voted for Kavdragon, for that reason. I mean, it's technically possible that RoL is a mafia, and a bunch of people who voted for him were mafia (myself included, obviously), but, statistically speaking, if a candidate was a mafia, they'd be the one to win the election more often. At least, if the mafia actually played well. And, if neither were mafia, then it'd be purely random anyways (obviously, we'll try to look at people who seem more suspicious as primary targets, to increase our chances), and for the first couple of days, wouldn't be a bad move. At least until we can get some better information. Same deal if both were mafia (highly unlikely, but possible). Since I'm worried about our mayor being a mafia atm, I'd rather hear some other people's ideas as to what we should be doing. This was a defense of Bum, and a suggestion of several scummy ideas: lynching people who voted for me, Random lynching for the first few days... In general, a display of poor logic that benefits Bum There was no way of me knowing whether you were mafia or not….. Looking at the worst case scenario of you being a mafia, then lynching your supporters would have been an excellent move….. In the likely, and best case scenarios, it would be purely random anyways. Also, at the time, we had no idea what the clues were, and not enough posts to get any solid analysis on people, so lynches would have been pretty random anyways, with it being far more likely that we’d hit a townie, especially since the mafia would try to prevent their own from being targeted. Of course, you don’t like that logic, do you? Especially not if you have me in your sights….. On January 27 2011 10:16 Impervious wrote: Look at it this way - I'll assume there's 4 mafia (possibly more, but this is a very conservative estimate). Without the mafia votes, it should break even, roughly (assuming both are going to get 50% of the votes). Kavdragon got 18 votes, RoL got 11. If Kavdragon is mafia, and had the support of all 3 other mafia members, that would mean that the town voted 15:11 in favor of Kavdragon. A little lopsided, but still close. He recieved a little under 60% of the votes, which is definitely reasonable, because both players had a strong platform. If RoL is mafia, and had support from the other 3 members, then the votes would have been 18:8. That's around 70% voting for Kavdragon. Much further off. If there are more mafia players, it would look closer to a 50/50 split for Kavdragon if he was mafia, yet look worse for RoL if he was mafia. At the moment, we don't have much to go by. One thing we do have is who voted for who (not everyone has been talkative, and it seems that it's backfired on the people who have). I do agree that we don't have enough to go by for a solid case aganst any one player, including our mayor and runner-up, based on what they've said so far in the game. Which is why I think that looking at it from a statistical point of view may be our best option at the moment. Support of the whole push for looking statistics, something that was spearheaded by Bum Just because I did something that a mafia player did suddenly means I’m a mafia player? Look at the voting history, I’m sure you’ll see more than a few confirmed townies who voted with at least one mafia player….. Clearly they must all be suspicious to you as well….. Piss-poor argument you’ve got here….. Plus, you seem to not like statistical analysis at all. I’m more of a fan of numbers (you can check that in the previous mafia game I played if you don’t believe me, plus, I’m surrounded with numbers all the time, thanks to my path in uni). Two different views on how to play the game early on. Note, however, that I never discounted your style of play - I simply gave a logical alternative for points in the game where we did not have enough information to give any proper analysis to suit your play style. Suddenly I’m mafia? ….. On January 30 2011 12:18 Impervious wrote: Frankly, if you've ever read through that, you'd find that it's actually more fucked up as the connection you're trying to make here is..... I definitely think there's something up with Jackal58 though. "Steel", "Black", and relatively inactive which may indicate that he was the one that the clues are about? The first of many posts supporting Jackal's "Steel" clue, something that I believe was part of a concerted (and quite successful) effort by the mafia to help the town look at the clues the totally wrong way. It's not word matching game, it's clue game. I'm not entirely sure why it took me this long to figure that out, but it's pretty obvious now. At this point, I’m starting to feel like most of your points against me are straw-men arguments….. Many people fucked up on these clues….. And you’re trying to single me out for it? I didn‘t push the clues as hard as a fucking confirmed townie did….. On January 27 2011 13:17 Impervious wrote: (My first "Dear Impervious" letter) tbh, I'm kinda glad you called me out here. Hopefully it can get some discussion going. We need more than we've got..... Generate more discussion, Eh? So that would explain why you disappear for the next FIVE pages, post three one liners, then disappear for another TWELVE PAGES? Lol, fail scum. (But really, Fail me for not noticing that earlier) Yes, you fail at analyzing me. I get it already. On January 31 2011 14:12 Impervious wrote: Make up your mind, woman..... First you think i need to post more, and then when I do, you don't like it..... On January 31 2011 14:14 Impervious wrote: PS - if you can't tell, there's a bit of sarcasm and dry humor in my post. Unfortunately, it doesn't come across as well as it would in a face-to-face conversation - there's only so much that text can convey..... This came across as very odd to me at the time, but I never really thought much about. Why would someone feel the need to make is so clear that he was being sarcastic? It comes off seeming like something that a very nervous person would do. Why would a townie be nervous because of a light FoS from me? Unless he wasn't a townie, and i was dead on the money with what I was saying... Simple - I re-read my post, and decided that it could easily be misinterpreted. So I added a clarification. Which ended up getting misinterpreted….. Fml On February 01 2011 05:22 Impervious wrote: If I had something to hide, why would I take the bite? It only gives you more information to base an unfounded assumption off of..... Of course, then you could claim that I'm trying to cover my tracks by appearing to take the bite? And then we're in a WIFOM situation..... While the clues are nice, and analyzing everyone's posting history with such extreme scrutiny is an impressive accomplishment, looking at the logic behind what people do (not say, do) is also important. We're really, really early in the game so far, so there's not much to go by yet. Wait. Remember when I posted my first analysis of you? And you disappear for like, 17 pages? Huh. You bring up very good points for me, friend. Duh? Cause I’m a fucking townie trying to help? On February 02 2011 14:33 Impervious wrote: Think about it - look at how people have been voting, look at how the clues have been leading us in the wrong direction..... Does it really make any sense that we haven't had a single fucking Mafia kill yet? There's something fishy about vig and SK hits not hitting a mafia at all (especially since any decent SK would be thinking that the mafia is winning, and therefore try to kill scum instead, and the clue last night really signals that a vig made a hit). The only way that could make any sense (without some extreme luck by the mafia) was if the mayor was lying to us. And if he was, it would be very, very easy to turn us against the wrong people..... Impervious has FoS'd two people in particular that I remember: Jackal, and Me. Mostly just trying to discredit me/make me out to be mafia. ANY analysis of my posting at that point would have shown me to be town, or SK. Only Mafia would have had the motivation for turning public opinion against the mayor, more importantly the census, at that point was Mafia. Knock Knock! Hello? Is there some grey matter between your ears or not? Of course I was suspicious of you….. Mafia definitely want your position, and you won by a massive margin, suggesting that there was some kind of ouside influence (cough* mafia cough*). And I was looking for info to get a confirmation either way. We’ve got that confirmation….. As for Jackal - I’m still conflicted. You remember that clue about the hiding creature? Do you know what a Jackal is? Google it….. As much as your “clue analysis” fits me, it also fits other people as well….. I remember you saying this earlier, in response to my first analysis: On January 27 2011 13:17 Impervious wrote: Agreed. But statistics can be used as a powerful analysis tool, and discounting one method of analysis is a foolish thing to do. So whatever happened to that other method of analysis? You know, the real kind? Cause you're sure not doing any of it... I could keep going with the rest of his posts, but I'm tired, and already convinced. If you aren't I'll continue, but I think between the clues, and the posts, this should be the obvious lynch for today. It‘d be better if you just stopped…… It‘s been pretty terrible so far….. On February 07 2011 02:22 Kavdragon wrote: Right, the Mason circle has pointed out how wrong I am in trying to push for impervious's lynch over LD's today. A public "point taken" I'll change my vote back to Lunar. Impervious: Would you mind replying to my points? Or are you afraid that I'll just take your counter arguments and show everyone how scummy you are like I did with Bumatlarge's responses? Still you gave me a little bit to work with... | ||
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Why the fuck did you claim medic? I don't see any good coming out of that..... | ||
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I know that you can't tell me if Kav is a medic, but if he was a medic, and he was to protect his last bodyguard, and the mafia tried to roleblock Kav + kill the bodyguard, what would happen? | ||
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Not good..... | ||
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On February 09 2011 05:37 CubEdIn wrote: I beg to disagree. The mafia need outnumber the town to win by default (since they'll control both night hits and votes), but mafia can still win with one player. So basically, if it gets to the point when there are 4 players during the day, if they do not lynch the mafia, mafia wins (3 players, one dies at night, there will be 2 players left, no vote majority, mafia wins). Actually, if the game goes the way I think it will, I'm pretty sure the town could guarantee a win if we got a mafia member tonight. I don't really want to spill it, because that would let the mafia know exactly how to stop it, however..... | ||
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Out of the people left alive (in order from the player roster on the first page): Kenpachi - playing kinda wierd. Quick to jump against me. Not too sure what to make of it, but I think he's town. Kavdragon - He's fucked..... Both in the head, and in the fact that the mafia won't let him see sunset..... Jackal - I'm not 100% sold on him being blue, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. It seems to explain a few things. zerroth - Comes and goes as he pleases, it seems like. However, I don't see anything linking him to anything at all. I'd actually guess that he's in the mason's circle, otherwise he'd have drawn some suspicion. Mr.Wiggles - I definitely think he's green. I haven't seen anything to suggest otherwise. BrownBear - a bunch of people were a bit suspicious of him a while ago. That disappeared quickly, and I'm wondering why that happened. However, I don't think he's a red. Myself - I know I'm green..... I seriously don't understand how so many of these "clues" link to me..... Even if they are all sketchy..... Barundar - I'm actually a little suspicious. I really do think he's red, but I'm not 100% certain why. A couple of the clue posts seemed to be linked to people who were "liars" and "cowards", and Nfi's quote fits (since Barundar replaced Nfi). Voting history doesn't help his case here. Nothing to note in his posts that I've noticed. Nothing conclusive, of course. Divinek - I dunno. A few connections to the posts, but I'm not sure if they're real, or they're accidental and we're making them look more important than they really are. I'm not sure. CubEdIn - Another "I dunno". Jackal seems to have a very strong feeling that he's a red, and he does make a decent case for it, but, just like Divinek, we may be looking too much into it. darmousseh - I don't see him being a mafia, but I'm not completely sure, of course. Probably green. I'm not sure who to vote for, so I'll probably go with my gut instinct and go for Barundar unless something better comes up. | ||
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On February 10 2011 03:27 CubEdIn wrote: I'm gonna leave now, don't know if I'll be back 'till nightfall. @Kav: don't forget about census, just in case you're gonna live through the night. I'm not gonna tell you what to do with it, but I think checking red is best, unless you have other plans and whatnot. I'm gonna vote for Imperv mostly because of the horse->heroin connection, and also because I kinda trust Kav (if he's red, town lost anyway). Doesn't this seem a little wierd to anyone else? I mean, I know I may be viewing it a little differently than I should since it's my own head on the chopping block, but that "connection" is a pretty terrible one to be basing a lynch off of..... We've already proved that with similar types of connections in the past (steel, for instance). And, seeing as I'm not red, it's not a good move to check reds again..... | ||
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On February 10 2011 03:27 CubEdIn wrote: I'm gonna leave now, don't know if I'll be back 'till nightfall. And you're gone when? | ||
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It's probably a bad thing for my studying if I don't get lynched, cause I know I'll keep checking this, and I have 4 midterms next week. Luckily, I actually demolished my midterm today, but I really should have studied more..... At the same time, I don't want to die, because that's one wasted lynch for the town..... And we're close to a LYLO situation..... | ||
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If you know something more than you're letting on, plz share. Otherwise, we'd better be preparing for what we're going to do tomorrow. I'm definitely going to assume that we missed our mark tonight, even though I hope we didn't. | ||
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GG! | ||
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If he doesn't go for the night kill, he's dead that night. If he says he will go for the night kill, but doesn't, he's dead the next day, since the town can't trust him. If he does go for it, he may prove to be useful another night, and possibly another night, etc. It's a chance for him to stay alive. It's in his best interest to play along with the town. Unfortunately for him, he became more of a liability to the town during the next day, and, as such, he was done. | ||
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I came so fucking close to getting lynched this game..... So I didn't do that good of a job..... | ||
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