EPTTL Mafia XXXVI - Page 94
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Also, what the hell, shoot me instead of a confirmed mafia player? Major FoS on Jackal, Coag, darmousseh and Impervious for being absolutely fucking idiotic. In NO SITUATION is that ever a good plan, LD just wants revenge on me for pushing heavily for his lynch. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On February 04 2011 10:13 BrownBear wrote: Jesus, relax, I just got back. I'm switching my vote now. Also, what the hell, shoot me instead of a confirmed mafia player? Major FoS on Jackal, Coag, darmousseh and Impervious for being absolutely fucking idiotic. In NO SITUATION is that ever a good plan, LD just wants revenge on me for pushing heavily for his lynch. I'm not being idiotic cat man do continue. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On February 04 2011 10:14 Jackal58 wrote: I'm not being idiotic cat man do continue. I'm sorry, but catman made me laugh. :p If you think he's scummy, you should do an analysis, one strenuous clue isn't that great, especially when you have a stronger one on yourself. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
On February 04 2011 09:02 LunarDestiny wrote: He is an experienced player but used false logic: LD is SK and missed shots. He sucks at scum hunting and is not likely to shoot mafia in the future even if he is kept alive. Color me impressed by your in-depth analysis of me, complete with it's own table of contents, index, and fancy color-coded chapters. Bravo. Also, Jackal, you have shown me absolutely no reason to trust your analysis or clue-hunting, at all. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On February 04 2011 10:18 BrownBear wrote: Color me impressed by your in-depth analysis of me, complete with it's own table of contents, index, and fancy color-coded chapters. Bravo. Also, Jackal, you have shown me absolutely no reason to trust your analysis or clue-hunting, at all. I freely admit to that. What I do know is scum needs to contribute nothing but agreements and town self destructs all by itself. | ||
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Eti307
Canada3442 Posts
I changed my vote... we'll see what happens | ||
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
On February 04 2011 10:18 BrownBear wrote: Color me impressed by your in-depth analysis of me, complete with it's own table of contents, index, and fancy color-coded chapters. Bravo. Also, Jackal, you have shown me absolutely no reason to trust your analysis or clue-hunting, at all. Just going to say that those who changed vote late or didn't changed vote looks scummy. Did you read the thread? Compare everything you contributed with everything I contribute. Who did more? | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
Ok, sarcasm mode off, but seriously, I get that you hate me because I pushed for your lynch. If you really think I'm scum, why don't you post some real analysis as to why. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
I've had this niggling doubt about darmousseh for a while now, and I've decided it's time to figure out what he is, once and for all. VITAL INFO: Posts in thread since start of game: 100 (quite the busy boy) Profile Picture: A fan blowing 2 vuvuzelas (noise, instruments, anything similar) Quote: "May the forcefield be with you" (forcefields? this isnt that helpful) Profile: "I like mountain dew, programming, baseball, football (the real kind, not hand-egg), sci fi, starcraft 2, civilization 4 (5 is ok), and my wife of course I'm 24 (agh old) and live in san jose, ca where i make websites all day. Oh yeah, i'm born on christmas day" CLUE CONNECTIONS: Day 1: crescendo, band breaking into another song, could relate to the vuvuzela. Very shitty connection, though Day 2: That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make - vuvuzela? A better connection than Day 1, certainly. I guess that depends on Node's sense of humor. Day 3: Can't really see much Day 4: Can't really see much either... Ok, so clues are a wash, but analysis > clues, so lets go over his posts. ANALYSIS OF DARMOUSSEH: He starts out with the usual /confirm, excited about playing post, then a one-liner about how scary the possibility of a scum mayor is, then some real-life justification as to why bodyguards are public. Nothing out of the ordinary here. Disappears until after the Day 1 post. On January 25 2011 01:45 darmousseh wrote: I would expect voting just normal townies would be best which I why I would be willing to volunteer myself. Also, being a townie is kinda boring. First 2 posts since the REAL start of the game, is a noob question and a greenclaim. Greenclaims mean nothing, though (doesn't mean he's lying, just that over half the game can claim green, so mafia can very easily hide amongst them). He also volunteers to be a bodyguard. This is an interesting thing to do. We've spent a lot of time talking about how high-profile targets bodyguards will be, and as far as I can tell this is dar's first game. It's a strange move for a newb townie to volunteer to a position that at that point, we all thought was going to die in the first couple cycles. New players tend to try to live as long as possible (a perfectly rational response), so the only way this makes sense is if dar already has experience with this setup. But that makes no sense for a couple reasons: 1) This is a weird setup (normally roles flip on death and bodyguards are randomly and secretly selected) 2) If dar was experienced, why would he ask noob questions in the first place? So yeah, there's that. This is the first in a recurring theme of dar's posts where someone says something and dar just quotes them and posts a 1-2 line agreement. This happens a lot. Now, I understand that a lot of players post some posts like this (hell, I do), but not with the frequency dar does. Now, I'd like to draw everyone's attention to something Jackal just posted. On February 04 2011 10:25 Jackal58 wrote: I freely admit to that. What I do know is scum needs to contribute nothing but agreements and town self destructs all by itself. Jackal's absolutely right, he's just aiming his criticism at the wrong person. I've been actively trying to analyze, come up with ideas, help town, etc. etc. dar is doing exactly what a good scum player would do - just agree with the masses. In short, he's a sheeple at best, and scum at the very worst. Calls out RoL for acting weird about his mayoral campaign. Good call-out, actually. On January 25 2011 09:04 darmousseh wrote: Well theres a few scenarios 1. Mayor is townie or blue. Volunteers are both townies, mafia hits bodyguards and then hits mayor. Pro: Get 3 days of information Cons: lost 3 townies, no information on mafia 2. Mayor is townie or blue. Volunteers are both scum. Mafia hits bodyguards, we get 2 mafia right away. Mafia doesn't hit bodyguards, in like 4-5 days we role check the bodyguards. Any case, mafia lose both bodyguards. 3. Mayor is scum. Volunteers are both townies. Mafia kills bodyguards. Mafia doesn't do anything, mayor eventually lynched. If mafia doesn't kill bodyguards, then highly likely mayor is scum. 4. Mayor is scum, volunteers are scum. (Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor?). Scum gets tons of information. Scenario 4 is obviously the best scenario for scum, but the fact that kavdragon is suggesting volunteers means that he will either 1. Choose the volunteers himself (which is an indication of scum) or 2. let the town choose the volunteers based on voting in the thread. In either case, if kavdragon was scum, then he would want to hand pick his bodyguards (and hide the fact that he was hand picking). Ooh, a serious post. Takes a look at each scenario that could play out. It's a bit simplistic, though. And his logic is flawed in several spots. Take a look at scenario 1: The pro is we get 3 days of info. The con is we get no info? I'm confused. Or Scenario 3: If mafia doesn't kill bodyguards, then mayor is scum? Mafia hasn't killed bodyguards yet, but that's due to medic intervention + mafia possibly getting mindgamed by medics. Pretty sure Kav is town. If not, he's one of the best mafia mayors TL has ever seen. Point is, this post reeks of bad logic. And we all know what bad logic means. On January 25 2011 17:19 darmousseh wrote: I think part of it too is that so much rides on the mayoral candidate. They are the key to getting important information and a centerpiece to persuading townies to look at certain facts and viewpoints. This is a post that states the obvious, but makes him look smart and knowledgable, as though he's contributing. In short, a pretty scummy post. On January 26 2011 05:29 darmousseh wrote: I think this one is the best. upside. Vets are tough to kill, and can be protected if necessary, mayor can live a long time. Anyone that claims to be a vet and ends up not being a vet as a bodyguard would be instantly identified as scum. Scum will probably have 1 person claim vet, in which case we can use role checks to check out the identities. Also, in the end, if vets aren't used to soak up kills, then they are wasted. By volunteering for bodyguards we can almost ensure that their abilities are used for the benefit of town. Also if we get lucky and get 2 vets then the mayor can be alive for almost the entire game if played correctly. The other thing too is that we would be less likely to lynch a vet since they will be selected as bodyguards and not in the pool of people we would want to lynch. downside. Reds can claim and mess it up, but they will be identified more quickly and it will be more of a risk since that will mean 2 reds lynched and 2 vets still in town. I'm still trying to think of the risk of an SK getting chosen to be a bodyguard. Interesting... Very interesting... it's like he didn't even read my verdict. There's no way that 2 reds would claim vet, and even if they did, how does that mean we get 2 red lynches and save 2 vets? At best, we probably lynch one vet and 2 reds. Nevermind the fact that this wouldn't happen. Most likely scenario is 1 mafia claims, we have 3 vet claims, we end up picking 2 of them as bodyguard, mafia gets a scum bodyguard, at least 1 vet gets killed early on, and our vets were useless. It's almost as though he really wants this to happen, he made the idea sound so appealing by highlighting an absolutely best-case scenario where 2 mafia claimed vets and the real vets didn't. I could go on, but I haven't even reached the end of day 1 and I'm already almost convinced. TO SUMMARIZE: 1) darmousseh plays the noob card quite a bit, asking very nooby questions, but then contradicts that by posting a lot of clarifying posts that are intended to make himself look smart and informed. 2) darmousseh posts these clarifying posts as a way to appear active and helpful without actually being so. 3) when darmousseh actually posts analysis or ideas, they're very shoddy and have bad logic. 4) darmousseh is very sycophantic, more so than the average player, especially to those posting big long analysis posts. CONCLUSION: The fact remains he has tenuous to zero clue connections. However, given his play so far, I have no problem FoSing darmousseh as Probably scum. If people aren't convinced, I'm more than happy to analyze more of his posts, but this post is long enough as is. | ||
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Node
United States2159 Posts
Night 4 ![[image loading]](http://degoodstuff.com/images/uploads/logos/Scooby-Doo-tv-02.jpg) In an uproar, the town dragged bumatlarge to the gallows, trampling one of their own along the way. Before the lever was pulled and the short drop taken, he hissed his last words: "My blood is as black as everyone else's." bumatlarge is dead papapanda has been modkilled. Sorry papa, couldn’t find a replacement for you. Also sorry for the shitty night post. I’m extraordinarily busy today.  There are no clues in the above post. Night 4 has begun! I humbly request that you send in your night actions ASAP, as I'm busy and want to get as much of the post written up as possible. | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
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darmousseh
United States3437 Posts
On February 04 2011 11:07 BrownBear wrote: ANALYSIS: DARMOUSSEH I've had this niggling doubt about darmousseh for a while now, and I've decided it's time to figure out what he is, once and for all. VITAL INFO: Posts in thread since start of game: 100 (quite the busy boy) Profile Picture: A fan blowing 2 vuvuzelas (noise, instruments, anything similar) Quote: "May the forcefield be with you" (forcefields? this isnt that helpful) Profile: "I like mountain dew, programming, baseball, football (the real kind, not hand-egg), sci fi, starcraft 2, civilization 4 (5 is ok), and my wife of course I'm 24 (agh old) and live in san jose, ca where i make websites all day. Oh yeah, i'm born on christmas day" CLUE CONNECTIONS: Day 1: crescendo, band breaking into another song, could relate to the vuvuzela. Very shitty connection, though Day 2: That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make - vuvuzela? A better connection than Day 1, certainly. I guess that depends on Node's sense of humor. Day 3: Can't really see much Day 4: Can't really see much either... Ok, so clues are a wash, but analysis > clues, so lets go over his posts. ANALYSIS OF DARMOUSSEH: He starts out with the usual /confirm, excited about playing post, then a one-liner about how scary the possibility of a scum mayor is, then some real-life justification as to why bodyguards are public. Nothing out of the ordinary here. Disappears until after the Day 1 post. First 2 posts since the REAL start of the game, is a noob question and a greenclaim. Greenclaims mean nothing, though (doesn't mean he's lying, just that over half the game can claim green, so mafia can very easily hide amongst them). He also volunteers to be a bodyguard. This is an interesting thing to do. We've spent a lot of time talking about how high-profile targets bodyguards will be, and as far as I can tell this is dar's first game. It's a strange move for a newb townie to volunteer to a position that at that point, we all thought was going to die in the first couple cycles. New players tend to try to live as long as possible (a perfectly rational response), so the only way this makes sense is if dar already has experience with this setup. But that makes no sense for a couple reasons: 1) This is a weird setup (normally roles flip on death and bodyguards are randomly and secretly selected) 2) If dar was experienced, why would he ask noob questions in the first place? So yeah, there's that. This is the first in a recurring theme of dar's posts where someone says something and dar just quotes them and posts a 1-2 line agreement. This happens a lot. Now, I understand that a lot of players post some posts like this (hell, I do), but not with the frequency dar does. Now, I'd like to draw everyone's attention to something Jackal just posted. Jackal's absolutely right, he's just aiming his criticism at the wrong person. I've been actively trying to analyze, come up with ideas, help town, etc. etc. dar is doing exactly what a good scum player would do - just agree with the masses. In short, he's a sheeple at best, and scum at the very worst. Calls out RoL for acting weird about his mayoral campaign. Good call-out, actually. Ooh, a serious post. Takes a look at each scenario that could play out. It's a bit simplistic, though. And his logic is flawed in several spots. Take a look at scenario 1: The pro is we get 3 days of info. The con is we get no info? I'm confused. Or Scenario 3: If mafia doesn't kill bodyguards, then mayor is scum? Mafia hasn't killed bodyguards yet, but that's due to medic intervention + mafia possibly getting mindgamed by medics. Pretty sure Kav is town. If not, he's one of the best mafia mayors TL has ever seen. Point is, this post reeks of bad logic. And we all know what bad logic means. This is a post that states the obvious, but makes him look smart and knowledgable, as though he's contributing. In short, a pretty scummy post. Interesting... Very interesting... it's like he didn't even read my verdict. There's no way that 2 reds would claim vet, and even if they did, how does that mean we get 2 red lynches and save 2 vets? At best, we probably lynch one vet and 2 reds. Nevermind the fact that this wouldn't happen. Most likely scenario is 1 mafia claims, we have 3 vet claims, we end up picking 2 of them as bodyguard, mafia gets a scum bodyguard, at least 1 vet gets killed early on, and our vets were useless. It's almost as though he really wants this to happen, he made the idea sound so appealing by highlighting an absolutely best-case scenario where 2 mafia claimed vets and the real vets didn't. I could go on, but I haven't even reached the end of day 1 and I'm already almost convinced. TO SUMMARIZE: 1) darmousseh plays the noob card quite a bit, asking very nooby questions, but then contradicts that by posting a lot of clarifying posts that are intended to make himself look smart and informed. 2) darmousseh posts these clarifying posts as a way to appear active and helpful without actually being so. 3) when darmousseh actually posts analysis or ideas, they're very shoddy and have bad logic. 4) darmousseh is very sycophantic, more so than the average player, especially to those posting big long analysis posts. CONCLUSION: The fact remains he has tenuous to zero clue connections. However, given his play so far, I have no problem FoSing darmousseh as Probably scum. If people aren't convinced, I'm more than happy to analyze more of his posts, but this post is long enough as is. Lol, ironic that just after I point out some possible clues in your profile, suddenly you attack me. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=184939¤tpage=84#1667 Yeah i'm a noob but I'm trying to get better. I've started to post less often and most of my one liners are responses to someone telling me something since we can't pm. I tend to post a lot in general because I want to be an active part of the game. The last time I played mafia was when I was in 6th grade so roughly 12 years ago. This isn't an excuse to be a bad player, but I think i have improved since we first started. When I was looking at the mayor votes I didn't realize the entire time that the dt couldn't check the alignment of the mayor or I would have even been more worried. Going back now, the mayor choice is crazy and he can/will make or break the outcome of the game. If you want to analyze me don't just post random posts of mine. The analysis you have doesn't even make sense. You point out some bad logic (which is due to a misunderstanding of the game initially) and then say that I post a lot. You could do an analysis of almost every active person in the game right now and come to that conclusion. If you think i'm scum then yeah analysis is good, but at least include some good clues and good rhetoric, otherwise you are just grasping at straws. My thinking is you just searched for the noobiest looking player, found some random posts and a few random comments about my profile about possible clues and then made an analysis. I won't immediately assume you are scum, because that's just creating friction where there doesn't need to be any, but I might watch your reactions more closely instead of the others that i suspect are scum. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On January 24 2011 00:38 BrownBear wrote: /confirm, and lol @ the mayoral campaigns. Good to see nobody's freaking out yet. Good to see On January 24 2011 03:34 BrownBear wrote: Interesting idea. I think the mayor would have to pick 2 scum as his bodyguards in that case - I'm not convinced mafia wouldn't just sacrifice a goon to take out a really powerful blue role. If the mayor can get the GF/roleblocker as his bodyguard, he's probably guaranteed safe for a little while. On the flipside, if he picks DTs/medics/whoever, he's screwing town over. So prospective mayors, take note: I want to see some theorycrafting on who you're going to pick as your bodyguards, and why. Before anyone really starts voting, we should start talking about bodyguard selection. Nice post. Good substance. Wait. No there isn't How does mayor know the roles of players he picks? Just fluff. On January 24 2011 04:43 BrownBear wrote: I mean, the risk that our mayor is scum is always one we have to take, given that we're electing on day 1, when we have very little to go on. That's why the mayoral candidate should be postulating on these things, and be very active, so it increases the chance that he'll slip up if he's scum. Again good advice that really offers nothing. On January 24 2011 09:08 BrownBear wrote: Agreed. I really think mafia would sacrifice a goon for the mayor - all the more reason why we shouldn't let them. Actually, a thought provoking idea. Would it be worth it to have veterans claim, and select them as bodyguards? I'm not convinced that it would work that well, but I'd like to hear some debate on it. Actually, our best best case scenario is to have the SK picked as a bodyguard... Which is the baseline scenario, which isn't great for us, but isn't terrible either. It gives us at least a day of census. So, I want to ask this question, and propose this discussion point: Should we have veterans claim and be used as bodyguards? And also: What about trying to get the Serial Killer as a bodyguard? But you want to kill LD. He has no use to you now does he? On January 25 2011 01:58 BrownBear wrote: I'm comfortable with RoL for the time being... at least, more comfortable than I am with anyone else except Dr H, and he's thrown support behind RoL. It's no offense to Kav or kitaman, I just don't know their playstyles as well. Nobody should be volunteering yet, I don't think volunteering is a good strategy. If we volunteer greens, it lowers the number of people in the pool of potential blues, so mafia can easily bluesnipe. If we volunteer blues, it's basically saying "HEY MAFIA FREE BLUES GO GO GO" Blues' greatest asset is their anonymity and the ability to hide amongst the greens, and we want to preserve that as long as possible. Your previous post you were all about discussing blue volunteers????? On January 25 2011 02:52 BrownBear wrote: I highly recommend everyone set up a spreadsheet now, with the following: Each player in the game What role they've soft/hardclaimed (includes mayor/bodyguard) Profile picture Public Profile Quote/Signature Random notes about them Links to important posts theyve made. (i.e. contradictions, good analysis, etc.) If you start cataloguing this now, it gets a lot easier, and it really helps you analyze people later in the game. Also, it's a good habit to get into, for any mafia game, if you want to improve. You WILL catch shit you might have missed otherwise. Good advice. Nothing to argue about. On January 25 2011 05:56 BrownBear wrote: Hi d3! Hi Deconduo! So will DocH and Pandain's profiles be used throughout the whole game, or just for today? What a welcoming friendly townie you are. On January 25 2011 08:55 BrownBear wrote: Who is aidinai? More importantly, why has he managed to completely derail town with one useless post? Let's focus more on the mayoral debate. For one, I wonder why RoL voted Kav without giving reason. Maybe he's just not voting for himself, either because he doesn't think he can, or because he is being polite. Or maybe he's decided he doesn't want the mayoral position that much after all. If so, why? Post is a page and a half after the fact. What a good townie. Let's continue the derailment. On January 25 2011 10:37 BrownBear wrote: I would think RoL would have posted saying "NVM guys, my bad, don't want to be mayor after all..." Perhaps he's feeling apathetic about this game as well? If so, why is he still playing? Apathy shouldn't be tolerated. I'll switch over to Kav in a second. Let's not just all agree on killing ON right now though. More discussion/analysis = better chance of killing someone. Also, ON isn't really doing a good job of defending himself if he actually is scum. Typically scum are more active in their defense, and will usually try to deflect suspicion onto someone else, or highlight someone else's scummy behavior. Basically, draw suspicion away from them, not act like the suspicion is no big deal. That speaks apathetic townie to me, not scum. Are they now. On January 25 2011 10:37 BrownBear wrote:Honestly, if we become convinced he's SK, we should just make him a bodyguard, and lynch him at our leisure. Well we are at our leisure now. On January 25 2011 16:45 BrownBear wrote: RoL has the better plan for the mayorship IMO. However, Kav has been more far more active than RoL. Makes this tough. I wish we had more than 2 serious candidates. Fine, adds nothing though. On January 26 2011 03:06 BrownBear wrote: On January 26 2011 03:02 Kavdragon wrote: The bolded parts are a seeming contradiction, but the rest of it simply doesn't make sense. I'd be interested in what your opinions are on these topics, but I can't understand what you are trying to say. Your plan seems like a way of clumping the mafia's targets into a small group of people to get them all killed easily... I'm pretty sure his overarching point is "figure out who the mafia would conceivably target night one, then don't pick them as bodyguards." Which still doesn't make any sense, because making someone a bodyguard is painting a huge fucking target above their head. Pretty much true. But why wouldn't you put somebody with a target on them into a position with a target on them This seems pro scum. Gimme moar targets dammit!!!!!! On January 26 2011 05:10 BrownBear wrote: Here's my bodyguard-picking 2 cents. I've gone through and looked at every idea proposed so far that I could find, plus a couple of my own I added. Note that for this, we're assuming that selecting two scum is impossible and could only happen by blind luck, so we're aiming for two green bodyguards as our optimal scenario unless specified otherwise. Option 1: RNG: We RNG two bodyguards, who then accept. Upside: impossible for mafia or SK to affect results somehow Downside: No way to affect what roles are picked, makes the 1 red/1 green BG scenario far more likely. Verdict: Let's not do this. It's just stupid, relying on luck to save our asses. Option 2: Greenclaim: Have two greens volunteer, they are chosen as bodyguards. Upside: If it works, we get two green bodyguards, enough to keep mayor alive for at least another cycle. Downside: Reds can claim green easily to screw it up. Verdict: Also not something we should be doing. In a perfect world where there were no reds, it would work out okay. Of course, in a perfect world where there were no reds, we would have already won. Option 3: Blueclaim: Two blues claim, they are chosen as bodyguards. Upside: Not a whole lot. Downside: Reds can still claim to mess it up, it paints a target on two valuable blues. Verdict: LOL dear god no. Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards. Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles. Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets. Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no. Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept. Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens. Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid. Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan. Option 6: The vote: Town votes on who should be bodyguard, Mayor selects those two. Upside: Puts the decision in the hands of the town, meaning if we screw up, we have only ourselves to blame. We can also pool our thoughts to hopefully make the best decision possible. Downside: Scum mayor can again screw this up easily by influencing town discussion. Town is not infallible, in fact far from it. Verdict: The first option I'd actually consider. Still not a great option, but at least it a) gets discussion flowing and b) doesn't let the mayor become an all-powerful role. Option 7: The Bait-and-Switch: Mayor calls for volunteers for bodyguard/gets town to choose a pool of candidates, then selects from the pool of people who didn't volunteer/weren't chosen. Upside: Prevents scum meddling (assuming green/blue mayor). Downside: Raises chance that a blue is chosen as bodyguard. No way to actually tell town that this is the plan, so mayor has to be good at explaining himself to avoid lynch. Verdict: A fun little tactic, not that useful, considering most of the volunteers/selection pool will probably be green, so the mayor would be picking from the blues/reds. I don't like it. Option 8: The SK Gambit: Somehow town gets the SK or SKs to agree to be bodyguards. Upside: To my knowledge, only RED bodyguards won't protect the mayor, so SKs will do their job. Makes mayor essentially invincible. Gets the SKs out in the open, to be lynched at our leisure. Downside: No way in hell the SKs would ever agree to this. Verdict: A fun little pipe-dream that will never be a reality. Still, just imagine. So... yeah, that's all I could find. Right now, Option 6 looks like our best bet, what do you all say? Great post this one. It all makes perfect sense. Except it's not possible. How does anybody know at this point or at any point in this game what a players alignment is? Great fluff right there. On January 26 2011 05:13 BrownBear wrote: Oops, Option 9: CubEdIn's thing: On January 26 2011 04:59 CubEdIn wrote: Since there's no way I'll be mayor, here is a kind of system I thought of to bring as many scum/sk into the bodyguards picks. It's not perfect, but I believe it has a good chance (20-30%ish) of hitting a red in the BGs: Step 1: RnG 8 people (out of everyone BUT mayor candidates and people who already volunteered as BG), ask them to confirm/veto if they wanna be BG Step 2: Tally up the number of vetos, and lurkers, and mayor candidates (not relevant in this case, since it's just 1-2 other ppl). Step 3: a) If the number of vetos is high (4 or more), pick 2 BGs from the people who veto-ed. Sure, some might be blues, but not all of them, so there's a high chance a Mafia/SK didn't want BG. If it's a scared townie, then you're not losing much anyway. b) If the number of vetos is low (<=3), then pick one BG from that and 1 from lurkers. This is the suckiest scenario, but it still has a decent shot of picking a Maifa out of luck. Technically, 8 ppl is about 1/3 of the players if you exclude candidates and ppl who asked for BG role, so there should be roughly 2 mafia in there. At least one. c) If the number of vetos is 0 (everyone agrees), pick 2 people out of the 8, as mafias would try to blend in, and blues that agreed would be ok (maybe vets or so). __________________________________________________________________________ Of course, this will not work if everyone knows the selection criteria, and it's not even polished. I didn't put too much thought into it as I figured I wouldn't get to use it. Also, the criteria would've been posted on a different forum or hidden somewhere with a date stamp, so that the town knows you're not just making them up AFTER you know the results of the tally. They would later be revealed to town. So I know you can't use this (especially since there's no time for people to accept/veto), but maybe I gave you some ideas. Interesting. I actually kind of like it, but the problem is it puts immediate pressure on the veto-ers. Pretty much the only people who would veto would be a) blues that want to stay hidden like medics/DTs, or b) SKs. So a veto would instantly equal a "HEY! Look at me! I don't want to be in the spotlight!" which would make scum immediately target them. Either they kill off a blue, or they bounce off an SK, then claim vig in the thread and get the SK lynched. So cool idea, but I have to say no, too risky. Another great post contributing fluff. Actually whay he's saying is scum will be on any veto list. Of course it's to risky for him. On January 26 2011 05:46 BrownBear wrote: On January 26 2011 05:30 CubEdIn wrote: Which brings me to your Option 6. It looks ok to me, but do we have time to set up a vote? And even if we do, I think it still helps the Mafia more, because they can push someone they want dead as a a BG and hit two birds with one stone. Honestly, I hope to god they do this. Part of the point of setting up the vote is to provide a ton of fodder for discussion and analysis, and if we notice that a group of people moved to place someone as a BG who died that night... well, that's something to work with then, isn't it? Nothing added just Agreement. On January 26 2011 06:01 BrownBear wrote: Well, I know I for one would support less well-known, under-the-radar players, for two reasons: 1) They're less likely to get the treatment you mentioned, and 2) They're generally less skilled analysts (not a knock against them, it comes with being new), so their deaths mean less to town. Of course, not everyone thinks like I do, so your criticism has merit. At the same time, we're getting closer and closer to defaulting to "Kav/RoL just picks the bodyguards" and I really don't like that option. Killing 1 townie over another is good for town. On January 26 2011 08:19 BrownBear wrote: On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote: A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in. I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. On a BG plan + Show Spoiler + We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5. Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards. Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles. Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets. Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no. Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept. Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens. Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid. Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan. We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back. So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups. 5 mafia, 2-3SKs. 6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs 7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely) With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor. Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him. This could work, I'm not clear on why you don't think mafia will try to falseclaim vet? You never really got to that point, unless I'm missing something. More good townie agreement. Without adding anything. But you did go along with it. Right here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=7725757 On January 27 2011 14:16 BrownBear wrote: If anyone took a hit, now would be your time to claim. Also, right now I think the most obvious clue was pointed out already by LD: On January 27 2011 11:34 LunarDestiny wrote: Some nights I thirst for real blood For real knives For real cries And then the flash of steel from real guns In real life Really fills my mind You can’t hide Nemesis Archer's Reality Marble: Reality Marble "I am the bone of my sword. Steel is my body, and fire is my blood. I have created over a thousand blades. Unknown to death. Nor known to life. Have withstood pain to create many weapons. Yet, these hands will never hold anything. So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'." That's a pretty damning point directly to Nemesis. I do agree that we shouldn't lynch based purely off of clues though. Right now, who I'm thinking of voting for is either Nem or bum. I have voted for Nemesis for the time being, but that is definitely open to change depending on the situation. Role searching. Tiny push at Bum But his vote is on Nemesis. On January 28 2011 03:27 BrownBear wrote: On January 28 2011 03:16 Kavdragon wrote: A few mysteries that are left to solve: What other effect(s) does the black liquid have? What is the real goal of sending 31 people to an island, infected by this virus? In normal games it is a common theme that the blood runs an alignment matching color. Is the virus what causes people to not flip? If so, is there a way to cure it? I think it might be a riff off the fact that since people do not flip, their names are turning up black in the mod posts, hence the "black" blood? Or, since a lot of the posts are from the perspective of the SK, maybe it's a reference to his status as a 3rd party character? I don't think the island or the virus really have any effect beyond adding backstory, though. Appears to be trying to solve the clue. On January 28 2011 07:44 BrownBear wrote: On January 28 2011 07:16 Kavdragon wrote: The problem with DT claiming in this situation is that we have nothing to check him by. If he says someone is mafia, there's no way we can tell for sure. Also, we don't know if we have more than one medic in this setup. That's actually a good point. However, using logic we should be able to deduce at least a decent guess as to how many blues we have. For example, a rule of thumb with most games played is to give town 1 fewer medics than there are KP. Assuming SIN is telling the truth, we have 3 KP in this setup (Mafia probably has 2, SK has 1), so logically, given that knowledge as well as the number of players in the game, we should have 2 medics. Problem is, we don't know how many of them have died yet. For all we know, Meapak and TheAldo were both our medics (very unlikely, I know, but still.) More fluff and agreement On January 28 2011 13:09 BrownBear wrote: On January 28 2011 13:04 Coagulation wrote: Kav looks like hes doing a good job so far he has covered all the bases i have seen. But dont worry i do got a list of you scummy fuckers its just not time to start shoving them down everyones fucking throat yet I would disagree with you. I'd love to see that list right now. So would we all. More fluff. On January 28 2011 13:38 BrownBear wrote: On January 28 2011 13:07 kitaman27 wrote: Despite me poking at coag, I still think we should focus the lynch between nemesis and RoL rather than spread it out between a bunch of people. RoL has been laying low relative to how he started and nemesis hasn't really defended himself adequately either. I'm more concerned about RoL laying low than Nemesis' clue connections. We can analyze how the clues connect to Nem all we want, but it's very strange that RoL was reasonably active for a day leading up to Kav being chosen as mayor, then disappeared off the radar. With that in mind, time to take a closer look at our possibly-friendly neighborhood RebirthOfLegenD. IMPORTANT STATS: Posts in thread: 37 Posts Day 1: 29 Posts Day 2: 8 (At this rate, he'll have 17 or so by the end of the day cycle.) This is an interesting thing, which I just mentioned. He's been significantly more inactive Day 2 than Day 1. This could be attributed to a number of things (he's not trying to run a mayoral campaign, everyone's a little less active day 2, etc.), but really, it's worth noticing. It by itself means nothing, though, lets look at more stuff. PROFILE: He has no photo, so that's easy. Let's look at his public profile: Welcome to the war "Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference." "What happens to a dream deferred? Does it dry up like a raisin in the sun? Or fester like a sore-- And then run? Does it stink like rotten meat? Or crust and sugar over-- like a syrupy sweet? Maybe it just sags like a heavy load. Or does it explode?" Page 150 of auto ban list Lag was just temp banned for 1 week by Hot_Bid. That account was created on 2009-03-04 00:41:24 and had 16 posts. Reason: I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you want to troll, I can tell you I have no patience for that. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long moderation career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you stop the stupidity now, that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don't, in one week, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will ban you. And his quote: "Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!" Nice plug of the mafia forum there, and I was unable to find any clues pointing to that. To his public profile though... People have mentioned the "You can't run" possibly referring to MP running away, I'm not sure I buy it. It's a very very tenuous connection at best. That said, I'm not sure Node/LSB wanted to make the clues as obvious as they seem to be about Nemesis, so... perhaps. Moving on to the really important bit: ANALYSIS OF HIS POSTS: On January 23 2011 18:11 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: hey! I will run for mayor too. My platform is only that I will destroy the souls of mafia. That is all. His first post after the game has really gotten started. I can't tell if this is a subtle critique of Kav and kita's silly mayoral platforms, or whether he actually was serious from the get-go. Regardless, he gets more serious about his platform quickly: On January 23 2011 23:06 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I haven't actually read most of the thread yet. Kav is a decent and level headed townie, although I don't remember ever seeing him as mafia. I tend to be much more erratic of a player but I do get results whatever we choose I am fine with. Oh wait nevermind. A soft endorsement of Kav. Going off of meta, which I agree with in terms of Kav being a good player and a reasonable dude. I'm sure he gets serious about his candidacy at some point... On January 24 2011 09:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Do I vote here? I don't see a thread so I will assume yes. I will vote for Kavdragon I suppose. ##Vote: Kavdragon Not yet... On January 24 2011 18:18 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: TMM2, Insane Mafia, Merc Mafia would be accurate to my current play style. All my previous games as mafia would not be accurately representative of my current skill. If you want an overview of my play style I will just tell you. As a town I am generally more aggressive, while as mafia I am more conservative with what I do. Although I think the play styles would be harder to tell apart, I think a distinct difference which I know I used to make and work to rectify is that as mafia I will be more focused on a few individuals while as town I will focus on many. The reason being is as mafia its harder to create a fake case that you can believe in and believing the viability of what you are telling people is the most key part to any game as mafia. When you are lying you have to know your story has as few holes and logical inconsistencies as possible. If you look at Merc mafia and read how I played I made sure not to mimic previous play styles and played hyper aggressive, although that could be attributed to the fact that Annul/LD teaming up would of lead to our demise. If you read what I wrote from my perspective I was much more coherent than Annul and my points kind of stuck together and I rarely attempted to make huge jumps. Only at the end did it become much harder to keep my story but that was due to the complexity of the game and the hassle that contracts created. I think the biggest tell I have as mafia is my behavior on AIM. I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom. Now as far as this game goes, I am honestly just tired and I know this game is going to be a fucking shitstorm if you guys haven't learned ANYTHING from previous games. If you took NOTHING from Salem, if you took NOTHING from PYP3 then this game is going to be fucking gay as shit and we are going to get RAPED. Let me explain why. In those games people flipped and eventually you kind of got an idea if someone was full of shit after 3 mislynches, but in this you don't know if something is a mislynch so you can have one asshole doing clue and behavioral analysis killing town left and right and you don't know if hes right or wrong. If everyone is focusing on that one person to champion them to victory you are going to doom us. Especially if the mayor is mafia. The ONLY way to confirm if any mafia have died is with 2 census reports. One today on mafia count and one somewhere down the line. The problem with that is if the mafia gets mayor we have no idea if we are on the right track and could easily get manipulated into having another game where we have 9/10 mislynches. Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die. Now to business. I ain't fucking mafia. If you make me the mayor I will do everything I can to ensure that we stay organized and have EVERYONE doing analysis. If you aren't going to put work into analysis then you need to get the fuck out of the game the express way, via death. Anyone who is scared to contribute is most likely mafia not wanting to be suspicious and if you refuse to contribute you should be considered top of the list suspicious. Now onto why I think the other candidates suck. DoctorHelvetica is okay and organizing the town but he ALWAYS takes a too central role and runs around in circles chasing his own tail until the mafia decide to put him out of his misery. Look at Salem. If this game is played like Salem where everyone just agrees on what one person says we are going to lose, and we are going to lose hard. DoctorHelvetica has never proven himself able to handle the town without putting too much focus on himself. The worst part about this is his town play that I have seen for mayor would play so hard against us, and if hes mafia he just has to do the same shit and keep the town tunneled and making bad decisions and we are boned. DoctorHelvetica will be an EXTREMELY dangerous mayor to have one way or the other and he is not worth the risk. Kavdragon I feel a lot better about. He's a pretty level headed guy in the games I played with him and as he showed in Merc Mafia hes not above manipulating the shit out of people. Although he is a nice guy and I don't know if he could be direct enough to yell at people and get people killed when it comes down to it. Can you berate someone until they contribute and do what you want? Can you do the analysis and the follow through to take down scum? I know Kavdragon is decent but I don't think he has the experience like I do for this position. Although I don't believe he is mafia. I haven't seen him play a game as mafia yet and he seems like the cautious type who wouldn't put himself out there without experience. What I mean by that is if Kav was mafia I think he would play more layed back because hes not as familiar with what to do, while if he was town he would be more outgoing and confident in his play and run for mayor. Those are my current thoughts on the election. I obviously think I am better qualified than anyone else for the position and I think I am our best bet to victory. Overall though the best chance for victory is in the towns collective efforts. This is the game where all the mafia has to do is shut down the active contributors and win because we are in the dark. However if the whole town is active that plan doesn't exist for them. The only way to win this game is through overwhelming effort and activity. Lets the last game I play show that TL town's have learned something from bootcamp, let this game show that even when a game forces the town to use every ounce of cunning we have to win that we can step up and do it. Let this be the game where the town overcame the mafia. BOOM. There we go. This is his real platform here. The most important thing here is, he tells us his playstyle. I've only played a couple games with him, but he plays pretty much like he said, so he is telling us the truth here. Not a very scummy move at all, giving the town the key with which to catch and lynch you. He goes on to talk about metastrategy regarding the other candidates. Here, I think he sells Dr. H a little bit short, (I think Dr. H is a pretty good player and a decent scumhunter) but he's very clear about what he wants the plan for town to be: He's not taking a central role, all faith is not placed in him, he's just playing the role almost of cheerleader, getting town to get psyched about catching scum, getting them all involved. That's not a scummy move at all, in fact that's the opposite. A scum mayor would be much more like "trust in me guys, I'll save you!", then lead town in circles while mafia ate them alive. RoL wants town to win, that much is clear from this post. He disappears for a while after this post, which is kind of strange. I guess his apathy got the better of him... He comes back after most people have abandoned his campaign and tries to save it with a few one liners that outline good strategy, but in a really lazy, half-assed way. Then: On January 25 2011 13:39 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I don't believe in a mayor centered town obviously. That is stupid. I am going to try to encourage everyone to contribute and analyze because that is the only way we are going to win this game. We need to make people talk and make them slip up if they are not town aligned. The only reason I want to be mayor is so I have a longer period of time where I can try and make people contribute and attempt to be a voice of reason. So Amber, how are things? I find it interesting that you quick response my prod when I know you do 4 day work weeks at home and somehow don't really contribute much besides responding to that  Anyway, I am going to girlfriends for a few hours. When I get back you will all get more. This is the core of his platform, and rehashes the above long post into a much more cohesive idea: Mayor-centric towns lose games. This is true. Also, he calls out Amber, which ended up being inconsequential - so far. On January 25 2011 13:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I like your reasoning Kav all up until the bit about the mason's. By the mason joining with the mayor it is creating a circle so to speak which I believe is what will do us in. We can't have all our ideas coming from 2-3 people. I want everyone contributing and by creating a circle you destroy possibility of that. I don't approve of any plan that puts powerful people and powerful roles together when they can't be confirmed. It leads to players looking for guidance from those who they perceive as "knowing more". Mason's are an interesting role. The way I'd recommend playing it would be to try to recruit those who you think are town and treat everything they say as if you think they are mafia. IN PMland people are more likely to slip up and say something stupid. They are also more inclined to try to hard manipulate someone through PM's. From a mafia perspective it is MUCH safer than manipulating people publicly. Anyway, the mason role needs to be constantly vigilant and never too trusting. I will switch my vote back too kav. Good honest debate here, discussing how the mason role works. Again, so far I haven't seen anything that's triggering my scumdar. I could go into Day 2, but not enough has been posted yet. CONCLUSION: It seems the only real case against RoL is from his inactivity Day 2 + one really tenuous clue connection. He's been outlining some very helpful practices town should be following, hasn't contradicted himself yet, and hasn't done anything obviously scummy. The only weird thing is his apathy. He's come out and posted great stuff, but very sporadically, and his heart doesn't really seem to be in this game like it has in the past. For that reason, I'm pegging him as Green, and a very apathetic green. What RoL should do is try and recapture some of the energy of past games, and get his ass in gear to provide this high quality analysis he says is coming. Appears to be a good honest analysis. But if you read it he really doesn't say anything other than RoL is a bit inactive. On January 29 2011 06:15 BrownBear wrote: It's actually a good thing that we haven't tunneled into a "lynch one person at all costs" mentality, but now we need to actually pick between Nemesis/RoL/Coagulation. So I'm going to do some analysis of Coag. Here's what I know about him from past games: A very aggressive player, especially when under suspicion Doesn't always take the effort to analyze/often goes along with majority Often posts a lot of one-line/contentless posts, broken up rarely by one huge one. Disappears randomly. I don't know how his scum game differs from his town game, because I've only ever played with Coag the townie. So overall, I really haven't seen him ever be super-helpful to town. Maybe during my short hiatus he's shaped up his game, though. Let's take a look at his profile and try to connect it to clues: Picture: none. What's up with everyone forgetting pictures? Quote: derp DERP. Completely useless. Public Profile: His post about holding TL hostage. Important points that might find their way into clues: -Hostages, if we ever see a death where kidnapping/holding someone is involved that might point to him -sharks, unlikely though -flying monkeys, even less likely -manifesto? I don't know, his profile seems specifically engineered to be clue-proof. This is annoying. Fuck it, let's just look at his posts: On January 23 2011 15:44 Coagulation wrote: Kavdragon for mayor is ok by me His first post of day 1, and only post for a while, seems to just be a "hey guys, I'm here" post. Trying to dodge any fingers pointing at inactives by popping in and contributing nothing? Or just a quick post because he's busy? Let's look further. On January 24 2011 15:38 Coagulation wrote: i will volunteer as a bodyguard Coag's second post, near the end of the cycle, and his only other post for day 1. An unacceptable level of inactivity, and since Day 1 was 48 hours, not really something he can excuse. Let's look further into this though. He pops in once to say "yo guys, this thing we're doing, I agree with it." Then he pops in again while we're discussing bodyguard selection to say "yo guys, this thing we're doing, I agree with it. Sign me up." He posted that right after we had kind of decided "maybe having people volunteer for BG isn't such a good idea after all." This shows a severe lack of paying attention on Coag's part, and kind of makes him look like he's entirely uninterested in what town has to say. That's it for Day 1, let's move on to Night 1: On January 26 2011 15:38 Coagulation wrote: referes to the mafia Kp count as "we're" and refers to the "town" in an outside perspective. Badly worded post or scumslip? His first post in a while, completely out of nowhere, right as people are wondering "huh, there hasn't been enough anger in the thread. Where'd Coag go?" (ok, I kid, but you get the point). LD does point out Coag does this a lot, though, right before Coag drops in out of the blue. Furthermore, he posts just to throw a ton of suspicion on Beneather, who has just been selected as a bodyguard. I should mention that Beneather has started to come under more suspicion, so perhaps his argument has merit, and to be fair it was a terribly worded post regardless of Beneather's alignment. Anyway, that plus a couple useless posts are all the activity we get out of him Night 1. Moving on... We talk about bum for awhile, people die, we are sad, we talk about Nemesis, Nemesis defends himself, then Coag posts to whine about the setup: On January 27 2011 15:21 Coagulation wrote: i dont like not knowing what roles people are when they die makes it 100x harder for town. i dont see how this could be balanced fairly. That's great, but why are you choosing to whine about it now? It seems like a very contrived post, and another "hey guys look I'm still here" thing. Fortunately people start noticing, and especially after LD's list, start calling him out. Then he posts why: On January 28 2011 11:59 Coagulation wrote: its not that i dont read the thread i just dont post unless i see something worth posting about. Well, I'd love to believe that, but all but one of your posts so far have been worthless. Completely. kita agrees, and calls him out on it. Then Coag references the ONE useful post he's had all game as a "look I've been helpful" excuse. On January 28 2011 12:07 Coagulation wrote: umm do you read my post's? + Show Spoiler + On January 26 2011 15:38 Coagulation wrote: referes to the mafia Kp count as "we're" and refers to the "town" in an outside perspective. Badly worded post or scumslip? Again, I just can't buy it. kita continues to push him, and Coag lightly OMGUS's kita in return. On January 28 2011 12:13 Coagulation wrote: sure like now i can point out how extremely aggressive kitaman27 is pushing suspicion on me for no reason and say its starting to look scummy. + Show Spoiler + "So there has been nothing this entire game that has been worth posting about? Not a single person that seems fishy?" i gave you an example that proves your blowing things out of proportion. He's very wrong here for a number of reasons. The thread has reached page 45 when this is posted, which means 900 posts have been recorded, about 700 of which are post-start of the game. Of these 700 posts, he's posted about 12 times, and 1 of these posts was actually useful. 700 divided by 31 is roughly 23, so he should have about 23 useful posts at this point in the game. He has 1. I don't see how kita's suspicion is in any way scummy. Yes, you referenced your one post, that's great. However, in order to defend yourself fully you should have referenced at least 3 or 4 with reasons why they were good posts. The fact that not only didn't you do this, but you couldn't do this, is pretty bad. On January 28 2011 12:17 Coagulation wrote: when town its usually best to lay low unless theres a reason not to. when late game comes i post more. also many people will confirm that i post 100x more when im mafia. Here's something I actually want to confirm. Who has played with Coagulation before, and can confirm or deny this? I honestly want to know. Blueclaaaaim. From everything that's happened up to this point, though, I really don't believe it. On January 28 2011 13:04 Coagulation wrote: Kav looks like hes doing a good job so far he has covered all the bases i have seen. But dont worry i do got a list of you scummy fuckers its just not time to start shoving them down everyones fucking throat yet I haven't seen this list yet, and I really want to. So Coag, where's your list? This is a good lesson: Anytime someone who is under suspicion says they have a list/spreadsheet/whatever that contains how to win/catch mafia/bake cookies/whatever, MAKE THEM SHOW IT. If they refuse to show it, THREATEN TO LYNCH THEM UNTIL THEY DO. If they don't have one, that means they lied. And liars are scum, 99% of the time. On January 28 2011 13:33 Coagulation wrote: CubEdIn tube Kenpachi Divinek scum be there Didn't see this post earlier, but if this is meant to be your list, perhaps we should just stop trying. I'm holding out that you actually have a list beyond this, though. I have to. On January 28 2011 13:41 Coagulation wrote: YA hence why i hadnt felt it necessary to post my suspects yet. Ok good, that wasn't your list, but then we get back to the where-is-your-list question. That's all of consequence I could find on Coagulation, and trust me it was hard as fuck. VERDICT: I want to say scum, I really do. But I've been part of too many games where we lynch someone for the same reasons as these and they just end up being a bored townie who decided it wasn't worth it. So, here's what I say: Coagulation, I am CALLING YOU OUT. If you want suspicion to be taken off of you, you have to start playing better than this. I want to see you do these things: 1) Post a real list of suspects, not the piece of crap you posted earlier. 2) Start analyzing those suspects. Convince us that they're suspicious. 3) Refrain from posting the pointless "Hey guys look I'm here" posts in the future. Only post when you actually have something to add. 4) I want to see 15 quality posts a day from you, minimum. You can figure out what quality means yourself, you're a smart dude. I'm not going to advocate lynching you today because there's not enough time left. Consider yourself on super-seekrit probation though. If your game hasn't cleaned up by next day... I'm sure you can figure that out for yourself. Points FoS at Coag. So has everybody else at some point. On January 29 2011 07:25 BrownBear wrote: On January 29 2011 07:20 GMarshal wrote: Well its going to be really funny if we have 10 or so modkills If by funny you mean terrible and frustrating, then yeah. Right now I'm still undecided on Nemesis, and yes, I know my vote is on him. However, because I think RoL is town, I'm giving Coag a day to shape up, and bum's been very active/posting analysis, I'm sticking with Nem for now. Currently RoL is the vote leader, which is not something I'm cool with. Are we really lynching him? I'd like to hear reasons why, there hasn't been a real unified case against him. He mad. On January 29 2011 07:42 BrownBear wrote: My reasoning was, I put it on you at the beginning of the day for two reasons: 1) At the beginning, you had the strongest case against you in the clues, which you have since refuted, but also in a general unease at how you have been playing so far. You really didn't do all that much before people started suspecting you, and now you're doing nothing except defending yourself. 2)I try to vote at the beginning of the day, because I know sometimes I can vanish, due to shitty internet, work, partying, life outside TL, whatever. When I do vanish, that can lead to danger of modkill if I don't get back in time. So I throw a vote on whoever I think is most likely at the start of the day, then change it as new candidates come. So far, nobody has come forward that looks more suspicious than you, so my vote remains on you. Good reason right there. On January 30 2011 13:02 BrownBear wrote: Sorry I don't really have time to talk right now, it's Saturday night, just wanted to say I was roleblocked last night. Why claim something you can't prove? On January 31 2011 01:30 BrownBear wrote: Jackal, stop it with the OMGUS, he's right in that clues do point to you. Could it be possible that one of the modkills, RoL, or OriginalName was the SK, so the SK is dead already? I think next night cycle we should census the number of SKs left in the game, it would be great if we managed to nail him this early. I'm dropping a vote on Jackal for now, he's not posting constructively + clues point to him. I'm going to throw up some analysis later, but it would be amazing if it wasn't just me + bum + Kav doing the huge analysis posts... Still waiting. On January 31 2011 03:13 BrownBear wrote: People also seem to have missed this, but I was roleblocked last night. This means mafia definitely sent something in, at least. What seems more likely to me is this scenario: NIGHT 1: Mafia starts out with a KP of 2. SK has a KP of 1. 3 hits are sent in, 1 is blocked. NIGHT 2: SK was lynched, part of the mass modkill, or didn't send in his hit. Mafia sends in 2 hits, 1 is blocked. This means somebody still has to post saying "yo I took a hit last night" Does this make sense, or am I thinking about it wrong? Claiming something you can't prove again. Still claiming something you can't prove. On February 01 2011 15:43 BrownBear wrote: Oh christ yes we need to stop thinking about clues. They almost always end up with mafia gently encouraging town to chase red herrings anyway. Actually, as part of the behavioral analysis, it would be fun to go back and see if I can see any people that were trying to gently encourage the steelers clue. I'll do it tomorrow though, for right now I gotta sleep. You were. On February 02 2011 14:00 BrownBear wrote: Life's a bitch, ain't it. On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote: Analyze the meaning of this dt claim and ask yourself would a town aligned player do this claim. If Bumatlarge is telling the truth: Because killing you = 1 less death every night? Come on. On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote: -The final push for this dt claim is detecting that I am SK. But why would a town want to expose the SK. Mafia wouldn't choose to hit this presumed SK and target other town. Meanwhile, you just get to keep killing us. On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote: -If Bumatlarge just want to lynch me, he could just have said that Lunar is SK or Mafia (don't know why he chose the former unless he is mafia and don't want lynching me to affect the presumed mafia count=5). Then the other two pieces of information is useless. What good would exposing the medic do? Nothing except for sparing him as lynch. As of now, claiming that Beneather is vanilla town is pointless since we are not lynching because of his bodyguard status. Medic is dead, thank you, try again. Also, it stops us from even discussing Beneather, so we don't waste our time chatting about him. On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote: After Deconduo's death, only 1 of the 2 dog profile left is Beneather. Since dog meat is very likely to be a clue. He is trying to protect Beneather. Or the dog meat is a red herring. Or a number of other things. Yes, it's possible, but unlikely. On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote: The reason for Kitaman is medic is rolefishing. What he want Kitaman to do? Claim medic? He can't talk, because he FUCKING DIED LAST NIGHT. On February 02 2011 13:18 LunarDestiny wrote: I ask people to read his dt claim carefully and think of the motive for his claim (is it pro-town or anti-town). I'm looking into it and reading the best thing that's happened to us all game. So, here's what I think we should do with this nugget of information. And yes, it does account for the fact that bum could be scum fucking with us. 1) We know there are 3 KP total in the game. 5 mafia means most likely 2 mafia KP. Therefore, there should only be 1 SK in the game since 1 SK = 1 KP, and 2 SK would = 2 SK would = either people have been getting protected and not telling us, or mafia has 1 KP split between 5 people (HIGHLY unlikely) 2) Therefore, we lynch LD today. He's obviously not going to be down with this plan and will likely stir a bunch of shit up. This doesn't mean we stop talking, we should analyze other people/think about our next move from here, but we lynch him today. 3) Tonight, Kav will census the number of SKs in the town. He's guaranteed to survive due to bodyguards still being alive. 4) If the SK count returns 0, we know bum was telling the truth. If it returns 1, bum is most likely lying. If it returns 2, bum is DEFINITELY lying and also insane. 1 means we should probably still lynch bum. So either way, we net a scum kill, either SK or mafia. Sounds like a win-win situation to me. Now, as a disclaimer, I'm high as shit right now, so I'm not gonna try and analyze. That said, let's get some analysis going ASAP. Just because our lynch is planned for today doesn't mean we should get complacent. See what happened last time we tried that? At this point in time you can do nothing else. Of course it is win win On February 02 2011 14:13 BrownBear wrote: On February 02 2011 14:08 Kavdragon wrote: Uh...Really guys? Look, LunarDestiny has been one of the biggest assets to the town. Beneather had looked really freaking scummy, and has clues agianst him. (If he's GF, why the hell would the mafia send him as their hitman? Bad logic). Kitaman is dead, and can't tell us anything. Firstly, Divinek: D3 was SK in Pokemafia and he cooperated with town. Scared the crap out of us mafia at the time. So yes, SK's CAN work with the town. It's in their best interest to work with whoever is losing. Secondly, Are we going to lynch one of the most active and actually helpful players this game? REGARDLESS of whether he is SK or not, he CAN be an asset to the town. As such we should NOT autovote him. That being said, I'm not yet convinced that Bum is actually a DT. This is all true, but the way to confirm bum as DT is to lynch LD, and I really think 1 less KP is worth having 1 less active player. Especially since now that he might be scum, it colors everything he says as potentially misleading, which is bad. To blindly trust in bum's DT claim is bad, but to blindly trust that everything LD has said is in town's best interests is also bad. The best course of action is to figure out who's telling the truth and who's a liar. But lynching LD wouldn't tell us anything you didn't already know. Hey win win We confirm bum is dt. Works out great for you doesn't it? On February 02 2011 14:14 BrownBear wrote: EBWOP: On top of what I said, you can't deny LD's defense of himself was a) kneejerk and b) pretty weak and full of holes (such as the whole not-realizing-kita-was-dead thing). Aren't all defenses knee jerk? No need to defend ourselves if we aren't accused of something Pure fluff. On February 02 2011 17:25 BrownBear wrote: So a guy is called out by someone who has claimed detective and rolechecked tem (which should be taken extremely seriously). Then he's like "LOL, LOOK, CLUES" and all of the sudden you all are like "wow, dude, great job! You're useful, we should ignore you and your obvious scumtitude and talk about these clues!" LSB was right. You all really are sheeple. Good townie post. Fluff. On February 03 2011 01:43 darmousseh wrote: I see no reason to kill LD yet. If he is an SK then it is his best interest to make sure the game is balanced and doesn't sway too much to one side. At this point in the game it seems that the SK has very little choice but to help us townies if he wants to have a shot at winning. LD can act as a mini vig for us and if he goes against what town asks him to do (such as killing the wrong person) then we lynch him the next day. My proposal: Let LD live for today and ask him to hit someone for us. Who to lynch? So far i'm leaning towards brownbear due to the clues. I said I would vote jackal58 today, but no one seems to be blaming him (mostly it seems due to the lack of steel-ers clues). I still get the feeling that there is a massive conspiracy going on. Ok, there are several things wrong with this post. 1) You're not the only person who's come up with this idea, and to be fair, it's actually not unreasonable. I'm not saying you're an idiot for thinking it, but I'm saying I really don't feel comfortable placing trust in a guy who knows he's fucked either way. Let's assume LD is 100% confirmed SK for the sake of your scenario. Either LD dies today via lynch or he dies in a few days via lynch. It's a lose-lose situation for him, so what on earth does he gain by helping town? I think it's far more likely he just goes for whoever screwed him over. That's bum. And regardless of the people saying "LOL bum probably scum LOL", he's actually most likely to be telling the truth. How would mafia have found an SK, really good secret analysis? They don't have a rolecheck. 2) Lynching LD helps us confirm 2 townies or 2 scum, as Cubed said. If bum is telling the truth, we know a couple things: Beneather is town, so kav is safe as long as beneather is protected, and bum is DT, and can continue to help us. All of a sudden, we have a DT who can check people as long as medics continue to protect him, we have a confirmed town bodyguard, mason can recruit either to the circle... we go from a kind of shitty position to an actually kind of decent one. On the flip side, what if bum is scum. Then he exposed a) himself and b) his scum buddy beneather to lynch LD. Even if LD is blue, we're trading 2 scum for a blue. That's an amazing trade. 3) Remember what happened last time we lynched solely based on clues? Or, actually, I should say you guys, because I had nothing to do with that ridiculous Nemesis Bandwagon-O'-Idiocy. Actually, I haven't really looked at the "clues" against me, so let's take a look at them. --- Ok, so first things first, I want you all to consider the source. It's LunarDestiny, and he posted this very soon after I called to lynch him. For the noobs among us, accusing your accuser is called an OMGUS, or an Oh My God U Suck, and it's almost universally considered to be bad town play. However, scum players can actually use it to their advantage to get town to run in circles/chase it's own tail. This is a desperation defense by LD, and a pretty weak one at that. --- On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote: Did town disregard clues completely? BrownBear -Name (brownbear) -Profile pic (instrument, laughing) I did point out word matching is bad, but recurring clues needed to be pointed out. Not a real great start, prefacing this with "well, I know these are kind of shitty, but..." On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote: Day 1 Show nested quote + As the host brought around the drinks, as the the crowd crescendos with laughter, as the band broke out into another song... I felt something was wrong. Did the lights in the ceiling just black out? Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat? So this seems to be touching on the fact that I'm playing a ukelele in my profile. Ok, cool, I can't deny that I am. The problem is, I'm not the only one. Hell, you're incriminating everyone who has a song in their profile in addition to me. Not really the most narrowed-down field you got there. On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote: Day 2 Show nested quote + The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. This slightly touch on his name BrownBear. I'm not even going to entertain this one except to say that it's the worst connection since Steel-ers. On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote: Day 3 Show nested quote + He looked up and saw a masked man with a blood-spattered black apron tied around his waist. The man masterfully handled his instruments, hands moving at a blur, flashes of steel rising and falling, leaving perfectly sized morsels behind. He lifted a finger to his mouth and sucked. Nevermind, this is the worst connection since Steel-ers. On February 02 2011 16:10 LunarDestiny wrote: Day 4 Show nested quote + And laughing and singing the masked man ran along And laughing and singing he shot Kitaman And laughing and singing he ran along Laughing and singing... And now we actually have one that could be reasonable, except it still runs into the same problem of you kind of tunnel-visioned me as the only person with a music or singing related profile. So to reiterate what I think the best course of action is: 1: Lynch LD 2: Kav checks number of SKs 3: Based on that info we lynch or don't lynch bum and beneather. It's really the only logical course of action, and I can't understand why this is so difficult for people to grasp. Let's lynch the SK before this bites me in the ass. More fluff. On February 03 2011 06:28 BrownBear wrote: On February 03 2011 04:54 CubEdIn wrote: @BrownBear: I agree with most of what you said except for this: Why check the number of SKs? I get the logic of it, since we're not lynching Mafia, census for red will stay @ 5, but we should easily be able to identify if SK died based on kill power alone, during the night, no? Wouldn't it be better to check number of DTs or something? Maybe it flips 0 and then we're sure bum is scum. The reason I'm saying this is because I believe that LD is SK, but I don't trust bum is blue. So SK number will probably return 0, but that won't give us information on bum and beneather. Given it's already night 4, the chance of a vigi trying to hit someone is pretty high. Also, what if a medic saves someone? What if mafia chooses not to hit anyone to confuse the town? What if mafia hits a vet? There are so many variables that go into how many deaths there are per night that just counting the deaths can neither confirm nor deny anyone. DT checking could also still flip 1 with bum not being a DT, maybe there's another out there. That's why in my opinion, the safest route is for Kav to check number of SKs tonight. More of the same. Let's lynch LD so we are comfy with mafias DT. On February 03 2011 08:54 BrownBear wrote: Beneather depends on what happens to bum. If bum does turn out to be scum, that's a pretty damning implication on Beneather. However, and this is probably WIFOM, but given beneather's status as a BG, do you think a scum bum might have fakeclaimed and said Beneather was town to throw suspicion on him? Like, say this happened: bum is scum, beneather is town. bum fakeclaims, knowing he'll get caught. He claims beneather is town, then when he gets outed as red, it makes beneather look red too. In fact, we could take it further. What if beneather is town, and it's LunarDestiny who's the scum? That way, when bum gets found out, not only does a BG get lynched, but LD looks clean in the town's eyes. Obviously, that's huge WIFOM. But it's something to think about. Fluff. Good townie shizzle. On February 03 2011 15:55 BrownBear wrote: On February 03 2011 11:03 Kavdragon wrote: Otherwise, this game is about killing scum, not SK's. This is the only thing I disagree with that you've said so far. In my opinion, this game is about lowering KP. The less KP there is = the fewer people die every night = the longer the game goes, and as town we want to drag the game out as long as possible. Everything else you've said has been very good, though. I still think we should lynch LD today, but you've convinced me about bum. Still wants LD lynched. His only hole card left is an SK census. On February 04 2011 06:11 BrownBear wrote: SHUT THE FUCK UP WITH THE MEMES JESUS CHRIST Also, LD, thanks for claiming and clearing that up. now, I have three questions for you. I don't care if you breadcrumbed them through clues and shit earlier, just answer them straight up, please. 1: Did you take a hit at some point? 2: Are you trying to say that bumatlarge is scum? 3: Are you trying to say that Kavdragon is scum? Asks questions he knows won't be answered. [B]On February 04 2011 10:13 BrownBear wrote: Jesus, relax, I just got back. I'm switching my vote now. Also, what the hell, shoot me instead of a confirmed mafia player? Major FoS on Jackal, Coag, darmousseh and Impervious for being absolutely fucking idiotic. In NO SITUATION is that ever a good plan, LD just wants revenge on me for pushing heavily for his lynch. Agressively defends himself. I think I read that some where in this post. | ||
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