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On January 26 2011 23:42 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 16:03 LunarDestiny wrote:
When I say "took out," I meant take him out of the list of suspects because Coag acts like this every game. Sorry, didn't mean this as a suspect list, just as a list of people who need to post more. Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 19:54 CubEdIn wrote:
Kav, why Beneather? I get GMarshal, but what was your reasoning for the second BG pick? I think it's important that we know, and I didn't see an explanation or him volunteering.
I might have missed it, in which case I'm sorry, but I do believe it's crucial information.
Beneather was the first inactive I found through random clicking on the signup list. Not the optimal selection process, but I had about 60 sec to pick.
Mkay.
I was asking because you soon after made a strong point about bumatlarge.
I'm not denying that bumatlarge seemed scummy, I even said so earlier on, but it looked odd, considering you had power over the first lynch, AND you would like Mafia as BGs, that you neither killed or picked bum as a BG, and instead made a case against him so the town have to use a lynch.
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On January 27 2011 22:52 Jackal58 wrote:
So that's 3. 2 mafia 1 SK?.
Yeah it seems so.
And Kav said that he got 5 mafias.
Now, it doesn't really matter if OM was mafia or not, we can safely assume that there are 5 mafia (kp would be #of mafia / 2 rounded down) and 1 SK.
That is, if nobody else comes forward.
I'll get to the post/clues analysis later, don't have much time now and it's a sh*tstorm in here anyway, but I wanted to address one issue first:
Should census be used for anything else?
I mean, if nobody else comes forward then we have a clear number of "reds": 6 (5+1). Which means that we don't really need to know more information at the moment.
Kav should have the option to count blues or something, but not to share it with the town, maybe if he was in a town circle or something.
I suggest that we use it for mafia numbers, as it's super-important to know if our lynches are on-target.
Also, if I'm correct about the KPs and Kav is not lying about the mafia numbers, then we need to kill 2 mafia before we can drop their KP to 1.
This may not seem important, but it means that they CAN afford to sacrifice someone to get to the mayor without losing a KP. That is, of course, if a red is among the two BGs
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Well, I got a bit more time to check out the thread. I don't like the page-long analysis on one individual.
I mean, they would go great in mid-late game when you have like 50-60 posts to choose from and you pick the most incriminating ones, but if you analyze ALL the posts, then you're bound to find a bit of scum in everyone, but nothing very conclusive.
That's my opinion on RoL's case at least.
So I went back and looked at the clues.
Needless too say, nothing obvious this time, but the second person showing up @ Meapak's murder site got me thinking.
If two people go for one person (Mafia and SK or Mafia/Vig or SK/Vig), do we get clues on both assassins, or just the one who got there first?[/b]
I think it's important to know, because if it happened during the first night, it's bound to happen again.
Also, I am assuming that if mafia uses 2kp on same target, we will have indications towards two assassins as well, and information that they worked as a team, correct? (that's how it was in the first game of mafia I played).
Also, I've been toying with an idea, I want to hear what the town thinks.
Since we don't have information about who's what, even after they die, DTs are far more important in this game.
So, I think that it's important that DTs play well.
Since it's pretty safe to assume that Mafia has only 2kp (I'm thinking that that extra person was at best another SK, and that SiN is not lying, don't see WHY he would), then it's kind-of hard to kill a DT if town stacks medics upon them.
That being said, I think DTs who find a red or sk, should immediately come up with it (preferably in a town circle, but since that's less likely, then to town). If we have at least two medics then it would take 3kps to kill DT, and even if they do stack them upon him, then it's probably worth losing 1 dt for 1 red.
I'm saying this because if a DT finds someone important, and dies, we won't even know if he had any solid reason to push for whoever he was pushing in the thread.
So, the basic idea is that we CAN'T rely purely on census this game. We need some kind of strong circle or something, to make sure that DTs can cooperate fully.
That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN.
Reasoning: He claimed he was hit.
Scenarios:
a) He is mafia.
He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more.
b) He is SK
Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway.
By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either.
c) He is town
This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on.
The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town.
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On January 28 2011 05:11 Jackal58 wrote:
Scrap that. If the DT claims we don't need anything else except medic protection. And nobody knows how many of them we have.
Well yes, that's why I believe that DT should only claim if they stumbled onto something important. (at the very LEAST to stop lynching a blue or something). So no claims unless it's wroth the risk.
And as for SiN in town circle, I don't think that's wise. Mafia will probably try to finish him off, and since he's most likely vet (and thus, not DT), he won't have much to bring to the table in a town circle (other than being the official spokesperson or something lol).
But I was just saying, at least we know we have ONE green. 
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On January 28 2011 05:48 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote:
That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN.
Reasoning: He claimed he was hit.
Scenarios:
a) He is mafia.
He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more.
b) He is SK
Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway.
By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either.
c) He is town
This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on.
The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town. While I agree with you that SiNquity is not SK, I don't agree that a hit claim makes him town. He claimed to be hit, even if he is mafia, nothing can be used against him. Not even a counter claim can prove that he is lying. There's no disbenefit of claiming to be hit as mafia in this setup. While it is also likely that he is indeed town, he claimed to be hit to provided more information. The only thing I can take out of his claim is that if he die the subsequent, that he is very likely to be telling the truth and gives out more information on mafia's KP.
Well, the way I see it, mafia will not hit him again.
1) because medics might protect him
2) because he might be SK (highly unlikely)
3) because of WIFOM, that you just pointed out
But, assuming that there are 2 mafia kp (lowest we can assume), and 2 SK (not too much if initial setup was 5 mafia + 2sk - reasonable with 31 players), then we are, indeed, missing one hit (2 dead, one guy trailing Meapak = 3, where's the 4th?). And since nobody counter-claimed, it's unlikely that he is lying.
As I said, I don't want him to claim, I don't want other people to trust him and put him in circles, etc. I'm just saying, we have very very little information to go by in this game, and since I don't see any possible benefit in the mafia claiming, then it's safest to assume he's town.
Think about it, if two people claimed, they would be on the radar instantly. One of them would be very likely to be lying, and SiN said he was hit soon after the post, why would a mafia put themselves on the map like that?
In the end it doesn't matter, we're not trusting him with sensitive info, we don't need to lynch him, etc. So we can see what happens, and that's that, but if we ignore things like this, we'll have mostly WIFOM to go by the hole game, and I don't want that. 
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On January 28 2011 07:44 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 07:16 Kavdragon wrote:
The problem with DT claiming in this situation is that we have nothing to check him by. If he says someone is mafia, there's no way we can tell for sure.
Also, we don't know if we have more than one medic in this setup. That's actually a good point. However, using logic we should be able to deduce at least a decent guess as to how many blues we have. For example, a rule of thumb with most games played is to give town 1 fewer medics than there are KP. Assuming SIN is telling the truth, we have 3 KP in this setup (Mafia probably has 2, SK has 1), so logically, given that knowledge as well as the number of players in the game, we should have 2 medics. Problem is, we don't know how many of them have died yet. For all we know, Meapak and TheAldo were both our medics (very unlikely, I know, but still.)
But you are forgetting about the person who was at the site of Meapak's murder.
Since we have no "watchers"/"trackers" in this game, it's pretty safe to assume it was someone who wanted to kill meapak.
So, I would guess that there are 4KPs in this game, not 3.
Unless SiN is lying, then, just three.
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Sup guys?
Sorry, but I'm known for not being active during the weekend. I just get home really late, usually.
I wanted to post earlier today as well, but, honestly, I don't have much to say.
I don't wanna vote for anyone. I'll be honest.
Also, I'm not very good at posting 500 word essays about why someone is scum based on a few posts that I picked. So I tried to focus on clues.
I have someone in mind, that I would definitely kill if I were SK, or mayor on day 1, or things like that, but there's not nearly enough evidence for me to try and build a case against them. Yet.
I will do it if I'll be sure of it, even if it will result in me dying the following night, but I'm saving that for later.
As for the clues, I only came up with Nemesis, and that's very weak, based on his picture alone.
I don't want him to die, and I don't want RoL to die.
I have seen him as town before and he's not ALWAYS super-active and posting, though he will wake up when people try to get rid of him, and post some interesting stuff.
However, for now, I don't think he's scum (mostly because if he were, I believe mafia would've tried to get rid of him on day one, AND because he claimed he was role-blocked, why would a scum do that and risk having other people claim as well, put himself on the map?)
Coagulation... is just being coagulation. He gets irritated when people seem to disagree or push him, and he just starts raging. Now is not the time though, you said it yourself that this game is super-hard due to lack of info on death, so why are you being anti-town?
If you're town, then you have to reason and make people believe that you are town, so that we do not waste a lynch on a green/blue.
If you're not town, then by all means, get yourself killed. But don't -possibly- ruin the game for others just because you get pissed off easily.
Kav, we really shouldn't kill. Even if he's mafia, there's not much to gain from lynching him first, other than that he could possibly be counting blues and whatnot. But if he's SK, then mafia might go for him, and that might uncover things about BGs. If he's mafia, SK might go for BG and uncover stuff about other SK/Mafia. However, as long as he can't find out which is which, then census is not THAT strong of a weapon for the mafia (strong, maybe, game-breaking, no)
So that leaves Nemesis. I don't really want to vote for him, but honestly, I'd rather see him dead than RoL, and his photo does look like a shady/blurry figure, which matches the description of Meapak's murderer.
I know it's weak, but I got nothing better, other that maybe voting for coag and have him figure that I must be scum because he "pointed me out" and I panicked, or something.
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Oh, I forgot about Zergling.
I'd love to vote for him, check out all my previous games. I hate lurkers. But he's most likely just someone who got green and doesn't care about the game much. Plus, he's probably gonna get mod-killed tonight anyway, so voting for him is just as "safe" as voting for yourself as "placeholder". Please.
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On January 29 2011 08:26 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 08:25 Node wrote:
2 and a half hours to go. Seeing as both hosts are busy and there's rampant inactivity, the night post will be delayed for two hours. That means 20:00 PST / 23:00 EST / 13:00 KST.
hardly inactive. more like rampant coag bashing.
Yeah, I wonder why that is?
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On January 29 2011 08:40 Barundar wrote:
Lets lynch cubedin for talking bodyguards throughout day 1 and post a long apologetic post saying he doesn't have much to say -_-;;
I disagree with this.
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P.S.: You are one of the few who are voting for the guy who'll most likely get mod-killed.
Way to "say" something.
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On January 29 2011 09:17 Barundar wrote:
Lol want me to pick appart your post? It's filled with so many inconsistencies it's unbelievable. And whats with the apologies, did you get called out? Or just feeling nervous?
Obviously, I'm feeling nervous because so many people are targeting me.
I just apologized for lack of activity during this day.
You have someone on your mind you would definitely kill if SK or mayor? As far as I know those 2 have different motives for their kills, atleast if the mayor is town. Unless you have some special knowledge of Kav's allignment? And if you want someone to get vigi'd you better speak up with names, if you are sure enough to kill them yourself?
You misunderstand.
I meant that I would kill someone if I had complete power over one kill.
If I were mayor, I'd aim for SK/Mafia. If I were SK I'd aim for other SK/Mafia. So yeah. It doesn't matter what I was (vig would work as well), but if I had a kill of my own, it would be that person.
I have, as you'd call it, a hunch. A pretty good one too, but there's no REAL evidence for me to back it up with. If I were to make a case against him, it would be weak.
If I were to die the night after I made the case, you guys wouldn't have enough reason to kill said person.
So why rush into "analysis" and risk getting killed, when I could make a good case against said person during the next day or two days from now?
You don't feel like voting anyone, yett you are voting for something you yourself call a weak wagon? And when was Kav a lynch target before your post?
I already said that Nemesis kinda-sorta-fits the clue about meapak, it's a weak wagon but it's the best I found on my own anyway.
I don't know what you mean. I never implied said person was Kav. I just said that it would be the kind of kill I'd make IF I were kav on day one (when he had complete power over lynch).
In fact, I don't think he's red, and even if he were, I don't think killing the mayor would be a good Idea. I said this before.
Show nested quote +But if he's SK, then mafia might go for him, and that might uncover things about BGs. If he's mafia, SK might go for BG and uncover stuff about other SK/Mafia Mafia can't night kill SK, so by go for him you mean start a bandwagon him? Something like you just did? This whole sentence is wishy washy, what information would SK gain from killing off BG's?
This may be a bit hard for you to comprehend, since you said I was "going on" about BGs on day one. But BGs are a crucial part of this game.
Here's why:
a) Say town lynches a BG.
Night can very well be a dead mayor (since other BG may be mafia). We lose census AND we lose the power to see if initial lynch was right. We lynch BG, we have... 1 red for mayor+surprise target.
b) Say both BGs are scum
Town will go all game in fear of lynching them, and they will run amok.
So yeah. If a bg dies, then the next night will tell us A LOT, since I'm pretty sure that if Kav is town, then mafia will go for him. Either by killing other bg, or by 'going around' if they're red.
IMO, any BG death will give us useful information, but will most likely also lead us to eventually losing the game because of lack of information about anything.
You posted alot of thoughts on bodyguards day 1, but I found your posts really low on other content.
That is true, but I have expressed my thoughts on the lynch targets, and I have expressed opinions about the rest of the game.
The only thing I didn't speak about was "post analysis", simply because I'm not good at it. I did talk about behavior analysis, mainly how people played games before this. It's the best I can do at the moment, that and focusing on clues.
If you think that's good enough reason to lynch me, then by all means, vote for me.
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On January 29 2011 10:19 Barundar wrote:
Why do you think a SK would hit mafia? This early in the game they will be aiming for blues.
I don't know, haven't been SK, but I guess it makes sense to go for town because mafia can't kill them.
Though, actually, in the beginning it's ok to dim the numbers of mafia as well for some reasons:
1. There will be less mafia -> clues will be pointing more or less to same people -> less people focusing on the SK
2. Team of players will be more likely to convince town to lynch SK, especially if they targeted SK and SK didn't die => They can basically "role-check" you.
In fact, it may be more ok to go for mafia in the beginning and drop their numbers to 3 or so, and then focus on town. But I haven't given it too much thought until now.
And we should have some vigis around. If you feel someone should die, just suggest it to them and they can decide. You are being really wishy washy regarding 3 named persons, and extremely secretive about this person you would definitely kill. I'll hold you to this.
I know what you mean, but I need a bit more time. I promise that you'll understand why if I get to post my analysis. And don't worry about it, I'll post it even if said person dies.
However (and this is pointed both to you and gmarshall), I don't understand why you would vote for someone who's gonna get mod-killed anyway. I don't like lurkers either, but that seems like a safe vote that won't attract attention.
I get that we should vote for who we feel is right, but your vote is useless unless he posts at the last second, in which case, sure, we lynch him next night.
This seems scummier than most of the things that have been held against players so far.
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On January 29 2011 10:28 Coagulation wrote:
##unvote Nemesis
##Vote zerroth
What the fuck Coag?
You can't act like you don't know this is extremely incriminating.
So either you're:
a) A really bad mafia player with Nemesis in their team
b) A townie that feels like they don't wanna play anymore.
You may do dumb things sometimes but I don't think you're dumb enough to be in case a). Which means that you're playing anti-town, which should be against the rules.
Switching vote to someone who's gonna get mod-killed is just dumb, at least vote for yourself to show you're abstaining.
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Because he's being a douche.
I didn't notice you had 4 votes against you, thought it was less. Then vote for some other player that's not about to get mod-killed. -__-
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On January 29 2011 11:04 Coagulation wrote:
should i leave my vote on someone who i dont think is likely to be mafia.
i would rather abstain.
I would appreciate it if you did not vote for someone who is 99% sure to get mod-killed anyway.
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On January 29 2011 11:24 Nemesis wrote:
Meh, I changed my vote to RoL as it gives me the best chance of survival.
It's 6-6 right now, and I think since I reached 6 votes first, I will still be lynched. I'm going to tell you right now that I am just green.
Just some last notes before I die:
CubedIn - I think barundar might have a case against him. It's worth looking into.
Brownbear - he seems to have analyzed all the lynch targets except for me. :/ Just something to note.
This seems rather honest to me.
The fact is, if he was a mafia trying not to get lynched he would:
a) claim medic or vig
b) try to get more votes on RoL, instead he's picking me, who was only picked on by one dude so far. It's like.. the least possible scenario to try and get me pushed during the last 2 hours. It can only mean that he's just trying to help town and actually thinks I'm scum. Which is fair enough.
He could still be SK, maybe, but I'm gonna take my vote off him. And put it on... ummm... someone else.
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Wait, is the night post being delayed, and the timeline extended, or did it end 30 minutes ago?
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Interesting Mr. Wiggles. So you want to make sure that Nemesis dies?
Anyway, I'm gonna change to Coag.
Here's to hoping that you're a really bad red player.
If you are town and you're doing suspicious/scummy moves on purpose, then I'd rather you not be in the game at all, and hope that you get warned by mods.
And I'm gonna go sleep.
Cheers.
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On January 30 2011 07:03 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 10:41 CubEdIn wrote:On January 29 2011 10:28 Coagulation wrote:
##unvote Nemesis
##Vote zerroth What the fuck Coag? You can't act like you don't know this is extremely incriminating. So either you're: a) A really bad mafia player with Nemesis in their team b) A townie that feels like they don't wanna play anymore. You may do dumb things sometimes but I don't think you're dumb enough to be in case a). Which means that you're playing anti-town, which should be against the rules. Switching vote to someone who's gonna get mod-killed is just dumb, at least vote for yourself to show you're abstaining. A really overly negative reaction to my vote change. attacks my "mafia skills" and trys to berate my judgment in a indirect defense of his lurking scumbuddy.
Oh right, because voting for someone who was on the modkill list is not scummy at all.
Also, I had my vote on "my scumbuddy", until he posted some things that seemed fairly honest, which is when I changed it to you.
Or are you implying that it was a master-plan to change my vote after the initial deadline in hope that mods will have moved it, and getting him off right before hang time?
In which case, thanks for changing your vote AS WELL and going along with our plan scumbuddy!
God your logic sucks.
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