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ShoCkeyy
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On December 28 2010 20:15 Node wrote: Analysis of LunarDestiny so far (my comments in blue): + Show Spoiler + On December 27 2010 10:51 LunarDestiny wrote: Lets discuss about the game. Framer is the only role new to me and the role is damn powerful. If we focus on a small group of people, the framer can easily frame someone who dts will check. We should try to focus on a bigger group of people so the framer could not misled the town easily. On December 27 2010 11:03 LunarDestiny wrote: I think the framer role encourages dts to use check on lurkers. On December 27 2010 11:10 LunarDestiny wrote: Because it is unlikely that mafia would frame a lurkering town. So if dts check lurkers, then it will reduce the risk of them mischecking a framed target. He spends his first few posts addressing the framer role, and how it should affect DT checks. I'm not a big fan of directing blues, but I'm not about to call this scummy posting. When people start asking blues to take specific actions (ie put bomb on this guy, check this guy, protect so-and-so), then it sets off alarms. On December 27 2010 12:25 LunarDestiny wrote: Contradiction? Pandain say we should lynch inactive for day1 then vote for Mr. Wiggles? Pandain, please explain. He calls Pandain out on voting Mr. Wiggles. IMO Pandain's vote was justified by his post, but I don't have a problem with this. On December 27 2010 14:17 LunarDestiny wrote: Since there are many new players in the game, they will probably base their night actions, if they have blue roles, on advices of others. Pandain did give out many good advices but I'll nitpick this one: I like the idea that vig's shot should be decided by town. Unless vigs are veteran, the town are better figuring out who is scum. Also, shots from vigs aren't wasted if more than one shots at the same person are made. I also want to discuss should vigs use their shots early to try to get lucky and kill mafia? Reducing mafia KP is very important and we also have two double lynch to compensate for lack of vig in the later in the game. Continues to advise blue roles, this time focusing on vig. I think it's a terrible, terrible idea to base the town's night kills on luck, enough that I'd call it scummy to ask for it. He also notes that newb blues are likely to base their action on town advice, which is exactly why I'm beginning to find it a bit weird just how much advice LunarDestiny is giving. Any mafia influence over special town roles is good for them. On December 27 2010 14:33 LunarDestiny wrote: Vigs can only hit on night 2. At that time, we will most likely have multiple suspects. These suspects are likely to be our main lynch targets on day3. So if they are not killed, we have to deal with them anyway. The risk is that they are town and can be proven innocence on night 2 by a dt. But the existence of the framer discourage dts to check on suspects. So dt checks on suspected people returning town aren't convincing information. Also in most of the games I played, vigs are killed before they were able to make shots. More blue advice. On December 27 2010 14:55 LunarDestiny wrote: I was trying to give people someone to discuss. There is no better topic that I can find. I find it hard to believe that there's really nothing else to discuss, but I'll let this slide. On December 27 2010 17:00 LunarDestiny wrote: People will ask what your opinion is on something and it is safe to respond on these pm. Just don't tell anyone your role. If you strongly sense that someone is trying to fish out your role, you should tell town since it is good indication that the person is mafia. After night 1, dts would have checked some townies and pms are encouraged between them. There is a slight chance that a mafia will take the risk to fake the dt role, but it would be hard for them to do since they have to predict but role that person is. I don't like the idea of pressuring a certain person to speak up one at a time. If the mafia choose to pressure a townie and that townie is afk, then we are falling into mafia's trap. We should consider all inactive. When day1 is half way over, we should come up with a list of people who are inactive/all spam/suspected and discuss who to lynch. Maybe then, those people on list will speak up and defend themselves. More blue advice. Also, he wants a list made rather than pressuring inactives on an individual basis -- which other people have mentioned isn't the greatest of ideas. On December 28 2010 03:43 LunarDestiny wrote: I don't like the idea of pressuring a certain person to speak up one at a time. If the mafia choose to pressure a townie and that townie is afk, then we are falling into mafia's trap. Looking at the voting thread, there are 3 people that were voted. Mr.Wiggies quickly responded after pandain voted on him. Pandain also respond after the mass vote on him. But Jackal had yet to respond after being voted by pandain. Accusing someone encourages participation from that that person. But what if that person is afk? He won't be able to respond. Also, IF pandain is mafia, then town will be sidetracked. Other inactive mafia will go under the radar. We should consider all inactive. When day1 is half way over, we should come up with a list of people who are inactive/all spam/suspected and discuss who to lynch. Maybe then, those people on list will speak up and defend themselves. I am saying that we should not target inactive (afk/spam/suspect) at a time for day 1 lynch. At some point on day1, we should come up with a list of possible lynch and that will encourage those people on the list to speak up. Again all of the above is for day 1's lynch when town have almost no information. I want to put pressure on all inactives to speak up and maybe contribution. He clarifies that he wants to not target an inactive for a day 1 lynch, but wants to pressure them into posting via his list. Which... I don't really get. Why would they post if there was no actual threat of being lynched? Also, I don't think mafia pressuring inactives would actually be bad, as long as . In addition the last time a complete inactive got lynched day 1 (salem mafia w/BrownBear), they ended up being red, though to be fair it was a traitor role, so the mafia wasn't aware of their alignment. I don't agree with this post, but I'm more inclined to say that his thoughts come from a town point of view. On December 28 2010 04:08 LunarDestiny wrote: Also, I somewhat don't agree with Dr.H that dts should check the people they think are the most likely to be mafia. The people that seem to most likely to be mafia are a combination of: -Lurkers who post bare minimum to stay alive. There is a lower chance that framer will framer a lurking town. I encourage dts to check these people. There is the downside where these people are more likely to be modkilled because they might be people who lost interest in the game. Without more people as replacement, dt checks might be wasted. So dts have to judge between lurkers who lost interest in the game and those who are posting minimum to stay alive. -People who have taken a huge stand on issues and are in long debates with others. These people are most likely to be framer's target since there are, at most, a few of people in this categories. The probability of successful framing of these people is higher than probability of successful framing on lurking town. And even if a dt check says that a person of these categories comes out to be mafia, this information is useful, but less compared to other mafia games where there are no framer To summarize, dts should use checks on lurkers to avoid framer. But should judge between real lurkers and discouraged players. Again with the blue advice. On December 28 2010 04:53 LunarDestiny wrote: I am not saying that we should go after inactive all game. On day 1 where very few information is available, we should pressure all inactive to speak up. Because this game have the role framer in it, we should let dts deal with inactive and discourage dt checks on people are suspicious because they are in heated debates. I agree that behavior analyze is important. Especially in this game, mafia check by dt on people who are in long debates are less convincing compared to other games because they are likely to be a framed townie. On December 28 2010 05:20 LunarDestiny wrote: Yes, my posts are general and are related to how should we play this game because of minor difference (framer) compared to other mafia games. @1)I want to ask you how should we put pressure on specific player to contribute. It would be bad if a mafia is calling out inactive townie. Also, who should we choose? Go to a list of inactive and randomly pick one of them and say "xxxx, please contribute." @2)If the list is short enough (less than 10 people?), then the list is convincing enough to pressure people to speak up. @3)Again, I am not trying to post to make me look town. Heck, I could have lurked from the beginning and not attract attention to myself. By my "plan", I assume you mean me saying "who should dts check" and "on day 1, we should pressure inactive to speak". Yes, both requires almost no work on my part. The first is advice to dts and the second is relating to generating discussions. As of now, I do not have good point of why or why not anyone is mafia. I do not want to accuse anyone without good point. Here he's defending himself after Barundar's post accusing him of not posting much in the way of content. I'll go through point by point. 1. I already stated how I disagree with not pressuring players individually. And it's not like a list is going to be particularly persuasive in the way of getting inactives more active, unless people actually act on it. That requires votes. 2. See #1 3. Anyone could say this. Of course you don't have to post anything helpful, but it certainly assists your own case if you're mafia. Altogether, an inconclusive post. On December 28 2010 05:34 LunarDestiny wrote: Because if we do something like "xxxx you have not been contributing and that makes you look mafia, please contribute." We get contribution like Mr.Wiggle which is good. But if the mafia is the one pointing fingers, then other mafia will be left alone. Also, we are targeting a smaller group of people compared to having a list of people. I also like to say that I am not discouraging pointing fingers at non-inactive. Having debates between active players especially useful since it is the best way to find mafia because a mafia dt checks on these people are less convincing than other mafia games. So, it's okay to point fingers at active players because it encourages debate, but it's not okay to do so at inactive players because they might be afk. Again, I disagree, but that's a common theme at this point. On December 28 2010 05:46 LunarDestiny wrote: I think I answered your first question in my post above. For your second question: The list is better because it will affect more inactive. Now I think RNG people to pressure them can be use in combination with having a list because I don't see why we can't use them together. To rephrase what I was saying, only RNG people and accuse them is not a good choice to pressure inactive. Having a list will pressure on a bigger group of people. You can RNG people and pressure them, BUT the list is needed because RNGing people is not enough. More pushing for the all-important inactive list. Why Insanious ended up making it instead of LunarDestiny is beyond me.  On December 28 2010 05:57 LunarDestiny wrote: As posted above, I think pointing finger is good but a list is needed because pointing finger is not enough. Also, the list thing is most useful in day1 since that is the day with the least information. After day1, I suppose that the lynch will be based on behavior analysis like other games. Also, I want to ask Pandain to stop voting at random people to pressure them to talk. If we are also pressuring random inactive, then the same person must not be the one pointing fingers. I find this post in particular especially strange. Pandain is getting results and encouraging discussion, and apparently that's a bad thing. The last sentence is garbled, but by the sound of it he means inactives should not be the ones to pressure inactives. Um... okay. So how else can they contribute? On December 28 2010 07:34 LunarDestiny wrote: I am following debates between Annul and LSB. There are something I don't get. Annul's conclusion in his first post about why LSB should be lynched. Annul, your conclusion for lynching LSB is because he have about 30 posts. All 30 posts, except 2, are posts that means nothing and pure informative posts without analysis? LSB, are your reasons for lynching Annul in page 17? -1. Giant wall of text that pretends to be contributing -2. He doesn't want to do anything about inactives -3. He makes a faulty analysis that is forced -4. Annul posts without brining anything new I will say what I think of this later, but I want to get these two points straight. Finally he gets involved in the discussion that the town has been most concerned with lately. But whatever happened to pressuring inactives? In his whole post history, he has not actually called anybody out, or even commented on the list he wanted. Also, despite being quite active in the game so far, he hasn't cast a vote, even though he emphasizes pressure. On December 28 2010 08:33 LunarDestiny wrote: I also think that Annul's initial post about LSB being mafia is illogically since the town will definitely not lynch a veteran like LSB because he have some meaningless posts. LSB actually have way more than 2 good posts before annul's accusation. Annul's second reason on p.18 Well, we know that there is a lot of inactive in this game. I also assume there must a some mafia inactive in this game so LSB going after inactive doesn't say much about him being scum. What I don't understand is why Annul accused LSB without good evidence why LSB is mafia. -I don't think Annul accuse LSB to save Pandain because the bandwagon on Pandain is a joke and there is no good reason to lynch pandain. -LSB also mentioned that Annul do the analysis on LSB to make himself look good by using it as a reference that he did lengthy analysis. But LSB also say that annul want his post to be ignored. I have to question why would annul choose LSB to accuse if he want his post to be ignored. It makes no sense. If annul want his post to be ignore, he could have analyze someone other than LSB, because pointing finger at LSB would certainly result in some lengthy responses that annul can't slip by. More comments on the LSB / annul debate. I'm happy to see him voice his thoughts on the matter, though I would rather see an actual position taken instead of just listing the various issues that are guiding the debate. He could be genuinely unsure of which side to take, or it could be the typical wishy-washy mafia. So, final thoughts. LunarDestiny, up until commenting on the annul / LSB debate is all about lurkers and blues. Blues, lurkers, blues, lurkers. DTs should check them. We should pressure them this way, not that way. It's a good idea to lynch one. So on and so forth. Final verdict: undecided. I'm going to leave it at 50/50 for now. His thoughts aren't inherently scummy, but I really wish that he would get a bit more specific and actually start pointing fingers instead of encouraging others to do so. I think what made me suspicious of him was how many of his points I disagreed with. I just think the inactive town list, asking Pandain to stop doing what's clearly working, and the desire to control blue actions are all misguided notions. The key here is that we don't actually know anything about him -- it would be quite easy for a scum to be behind these posts and say "I'm contributing!" even though everything he has said could be summed up in a few sentences. It's true that for most of the game he's been re-iterating the same thing over many posts. If he is town, I think he could do better. Ok, what im wondering is, why would you go off posting who's blue, if he is or isn't. You're just making it easier for mafia to pick and choose on who to kill. Explain as to why you did this? If he is a blue I want to know why you did an analysis on him if he's really trying to help the town and hasn't posted scummy at all. I have my FoS on you. | ||
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Anyways, fosing myself cause im an idiot. | ||
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On January 03 2011 22:21 Pandain wrote: Alright also, me and baruder have started a town circle, including those we know are confirmed townies. DT(s), if you have checked someone who was green, as long as it wasn't annul, they are confirmed town. Feel free to claim to them. Furthormore I am opening up an idea for the town to discuss, and before anyone does anything we should discuss it in thread. I have started a town circle with a few select individuals. I am willing to accept role claims. Now, there is a chance that I am not "confirmed" yet, despite the fact I have been roleblocked, and despite the fact I helped get annul lynched, and despite the fact that I have been one of the most active individuals in the thread. But I feel that for the reasons above, I am basically confirmed. Furthormore, unless a vigi claims whether to me or in thread that they shot node/RoL, opz is confirmed as well. Should we claim to him? Should we claim to me? I AM in a town circle with Opz, but this must be thought out before anything else. If I have medics with me, I can coordinate who to protect(so then not everyone protects me for instance, + Show Spoiler + or maybe they will, you can't tell mafia! In addition, I'd like to point out that if DT's feel uncomfortable claiming to me, we can also have people they checked claim to me, and we can work from there. So, what do you guys think? Ok, I can't believe you guys are letting Pandain get away... He's asking for blues to roleclaim... He has everyone believing he's a blue, which clearly he's not imo. Why do you go asking blues to roleclaim it's pretty easy to stack hits as a Mafia member and just kill off pandain, but of course he hasn't died because he's one of them. If the mafia really wanted to kill off blues, they already know one right here. Pandain isn't a blue. Heed my warning. | ||
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On January 04 2011 09:20 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: How is attacking the godfather a good idea? If you really think they're scum prove it. At this point they're some of the only people scum hunting in the thread. Until you start pitching in I'd say pandain and barundar are way more town then you. Because the godfather was going down either way... Might as well as jump in on the bandwagon and just play along to not be considered "scum"... | ||
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On January 05 2011 13:03 LunarDestiny wrote: I look over the voting thread and noticed ShoCkeyy was the only person to vote Barundar and Pandain. He also said he suspect the rest of the town circle (I think he mean people who work with Barundar and Pandain a lot). Is he disillusion or is he seeing something we don't see? I am go after him next. Darth, you be given a chance by town, hope you redeem yourself. Not dillusional, you guys are just blind and ignorant to them. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=174831¤tpage=31#609 This is when he actually posted for once. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=174831¤tpage=37#722 Then mafia killed him the next night. He was lurking way to much and way to quite. That's why I say pandain is just fooling everyone. He's mafia imo in this game. He's trying to be active and trying to just "start" discussion and lead town to fool everyone. Something I've talked to OpZ about in pms. | ||
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On January 08 2011 06:57 orgolove wrote: Would a red really post something like this? -_- Sounds more like a townie being resigned. You don't get the point of this game... Reds to make themselves non noticable of course they can post like this... | ||
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On January 10 2011 05:01 Mr.Zergling wrote: ##vote ShoCkeyy ##Vote Double Lynch So why are you voting for me? You still haven't even given a reason. | ||
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From: Pandain [ 2867 posts | Profile | Buddy ] Subject: mmmm Date: 1/10/11 05:31 why you still voting for me? who do you think is suspicious? Seems very suspicious to me. | ||
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On January 10 2011 05:57 Pandain wrote: Hello everyone. I'm back. First off, I'd like to express my satisfaction to God that he made Brockett be inactive, as that helped us alot. Second off, I'd like to emphasize a certain point I had made earlier. You have to be active. In the course of 24 hours, only 5 posts had been made. I find this very disturbing to me. In fact, even though I have already admitted I fake claimed DT, I have been roleblocked for the third time in a row. I can gurantee you all no one has been roleblocked besides me for the past 3 days. Given the fact that Brockett is revealed to be mafia framer, we can now start to debate details relevant to him. For example, note how people have voted Brockett since Insanious started his crusade on him. At this point is is 8(brockett) to 10(annul). Then Soulfire and Wiggles both unvote LSB and vote brockett. This doesn't directly incriminate Soulfire, because again, I myself(stupidly) tried to say LSB should be lynched. But since the vote was so close, it must be accounted for. Now, I am going to urge everyone to vote Soulfire because quite simply, he is hardcore lurking. I can't tell if he's town or mafia, but lurking CANNOT be accepted in this thread if town is going to win. That and in addition to my previous analysis of Soulfire, I am going to vote Soulfire until he starts to actively contribute. Remember Soulfire, your not a rock. Everyone has thoughts. 1.Why would blues be mistrustful because of my fake claim....? They're claiming to Opz, who is 100% confirmed. 2.I'm not blue. I've already said that. 3.If, as you think, I am blue, why would you think that a DT dying is good because then mafia have to roleblock someone else. Wait, you roleclaimed dt earlier in the thread and now saying you're not blue, then claiming you got roleblocked... mafia post imo... you just screwed yourself over. | ||
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6. TheMango 7. Mr.Zergling 8. why 9. Jackal58 15. ShoCkeyy 17. ilovejonn 19. Orgolove 20. Pandain d3_crescentia 27. Soulfire | ||
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2. Mr.Zergling 3. why 4. Jackal58 5. ShoCkeyy 6. Orgolove 7. Pandain 8. d3_crescentia List of alive players... They kill two players tonight which leaves us with 6. Three of those players are mafia. d3_crescentia is one of them for a fact, makes a vote at the very last second in order to not lose KP for tonight good strat... The three town people that are left need to vote for d3_crescentia in order to bring the KP to 1, and that will mean 2 mafia 2 townies. Then the two townies need to make the right decision in killing another mafia member which will end up being 1v1 a tie basically.... GAY | ||
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On January 19 2011 12:20 Incognito wrote: I mean seriously. Town managed to lynch a grand total of ONE mafia? That's ridiculous. Town lynched 9 people. One flipped red. That's worse than the 1/6 chance if you randomly pick someone to lynch. This game shows that people need to stop relying on blue roles to win games for them. But incognito, that's the point of this game... We need to rely on blue roles, it goes to show that with out them the town will lose. | ||
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On January 19 2011 12:55 Ace wrote: *looks at Rol's post on inactive players* *looks at last 5 players in the game* Well duh, no wonder the town lost. I'm going to guess this is sarcasm right?  :D, you guess right! | ||
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