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On December 06 2010 13:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So should we choose to lynch the hatter, we should not reveal who the bombs are on but stick with the decision just so we don't get the mafia turning on us. Keep in mind that the bombs were placed in accordance with who we thought was scummy. I'm almost positive now that one of the targets is mafia. So IMHO, there's 1 near-certain scum + one player we thought was scummy and then 2 lynches vs lynching 1 scum + 3 guesses. The difference is that we save a night at the cost of the MH's life. Unless there's something I'm not factoring in here, this seems to be our best option. I'd like the majority of people to comment on this before we go through with it.
I agree. I think that lynching the MH will put the town in a better position should it be successful and hit two scum. If town dies, either by lynch or bomb, then we are screwed either way, and if we manage to lynch scum, we still have a lot of work to do.
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On December 06 2010 13:54 Nemesis wrote:
Hmm town's chances are rather looking grim. I am rather leaning towards lynching MH right now because town's chances of lynching right 4 times is rather low especially factoring in that townies might be easily manipulated by witches.
It depends on how much confidence MH has on his targets. Does MH still have two bombs right now, and if so, how confident is he?
Because if he only has 1 bomb, I think our chances are pretty much the same eitherway, and would rather scumhunt.
He has confirmed that he does have 2 bombs left. One is on a target we are pretty certain is scum, the other is on a target that we aren't so sure about.
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On December 06 2010 21:47 CubEdIn wrote:Just going on a side-note here, since we're considering taking down MH, why not take down someone who we're pretty certain is mafia, and take the chance of mafia hitting MH on the following night. I know it's a long shot, but if you are not certain of both of MHs bombs, it's pretty much the same thing. And eventually we'll have to take a stab in the dark anyway. Also, one more thing, if we ARE lynching MH, we have to be very accurate about it. We can't have the lynch derail at the last moment and give away info on who the MH is to the mafia. I know this sounds stupid, but I seen it happen with Pandain in Insane. What was supposed to be a very clear lynch got derailed easily because people were not paying enough attention. So. I'm gonna ask mr. jcarlsoniv: You said you spoke to MH and you're both toying with the idea. Do you happen to have a 3rd target? Someone we can be at least 50,01% sure is mafia tonight?  After that's been answered, I propose we vote if we lynch the MH or not.
Well, we have a bomb on one target who we are pretty certain is scum. If we were to lynch him, then we would lose one bomb, and cut the MH's effectiveness in half, something we can't afford to do. So we would have to find another player who we think is scum, and even then, if we lynch a townie, it is loss.
We are trying to think of a third target, because if we can take a safer route, that would be nice. However, the safer, best case scenario would be this: Find a third target who is mafia, lynch him, hope the MH gets hit tonight and blows up at least one scum, obviously preferably two.
Lynching the MH is indeed a huge gamble, but that might be what the town needs at this point. High risk, but high reward. If things don't go perfectly with lynches, we lose. If we get lucky with bombs we will be in much better shape for the coming days. So that's the real question, does the town want to take a big gamble to maybe swing the tide of the game back into its favor?
Side note: What happened in insane was ridiculous. I was dead at that point, and Ace was wreaking all sorts of havoc, and there were a lot more players. I will keep the thread on track as best I can so we can actually follow through with a plan.
Going to class, be back in a few hours.
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Ok, guys, we need to talk about what the town thinks we should do for today.
This is an all or nothing situation, we need to figure it out.
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On December 07 2010 10:50 KtheZ wrote:
This is true. We should debate on who to lynch first.
Is it bad for the hatter to reveal who he has his bombs on? So we don't accidentally lynch that person. The hatter can 100% leave the bomb on the scum-like person, and we can debate whether the 2nd person is scum or not, and the results (if we dont insta-lose) would in turn help us find the other mafia.
Of course, this is just my thoughts.
Well who does the town think that the scummiest person is at this point? Imo, it's Radfield. Ok great. However, that is where one of the bombs is, so if we were to lynch him, then the MH will be cut in half. So who would you suggest to kill otherwise?
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On December 07 2010 11:56 SouthRawrea wrote:
Or maybe I'm confused now. D:
Or we try to find a third person to lynch.
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On December 07 2010 12:40 KtheZ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 08:24 Node wrote:
On the flipside, it's entirely possible that the hatter will end up more dangerous to us alive than dead if we get a couple of correct lynches. Supposing we lynch a mafia today and the MH survives tonight, it's gonna be really hard for him to have bombs on two mafia for the subsequent nights -- so if the mafia manage to hit him it's going to be more and more likely that he accidentally blows up the town, which would spell our demise. Or we could purposely lynch one of his bombs out of the game.
Why would we ever do that?
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On December 07 2010 13:45 Eiii wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly. I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap.
So, we don't have any good leads on mafia, but we should bet on the town being able to lynch right 4 times in a row?
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On December 07 2010 14:07 KtheZ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 12:44 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 07 2010 12:40 KtheZ wrote:On December 07 2010 08:24 Node wrote:
On the flipside, it's entirely possible that the hatter will end up more dangerous to us alive than dead if we get a couple of correct lynches. Supposing we lynch a mafia today and the MH survives tonight, it's gonna be really hard for him to have bombs on two mafia for the subsequent nights -- so if the mafia manage to hit him it's going to be more and more likely that he accidentally blows up the town, which would spell our demise. Or we could purposely lynch one of his bombs out of the game. Why would we ever do that? I'm saying that IF and only IF we get to the point with like 1 or 2 mafia left, and an also dwindled number of townies, that the hatter's bombs may do more harm than good.
Ummmm town's numbers are pretty dwindled. We're at a mylo situation right now.
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On December 07 2010 14:56 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 14:07 KtheZ wrote:On December 07 2010 12:44 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 07 2010 12:40 KtheZ wrote:On December 07 2010 08:24 Node wrote:
On the flipside, it's entirely possible that the hatter will end up more dangerous to us alive than dead if we get a couple of correct lynches. Supposing we lynch a mafia today and the MH survives tonight, it's gonna be really hard for him to have bombs on two mafia for the subsequent nights -- so if the mafia manage to hit him it's going to be more and more likely that he accidentally blows up the town, which would spell our demise. Or we could purposely lynch one of his bombs out of the game. Why would we ever do that? I'm saying that IF and only IF we get to the point with like 1 or 2 mafia left, and an also dwindled number of townies, that the hatter's bombs may do more harm than good. MH is a townie KP, why would we want to get rid of his bombs? Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 14:46 Eiii wrote:On December 07 2010 13:56 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 07 2010 13:45 Eiii wrote:On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly. I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap. So, we don't have any good leads on mafia, but we should bet on the town being able to lynch right 4 times in a row? I should have phrased that better-- we don't have ENOUGH good leads. Radfield seems to be the lynch candidate for the moment, but I don't want to risk losing just for an advantage by guessing who another mafia is. At this point, if I were mafia I'd be laying as low as possible to avoid suspicion. Obviously, if they can keep attention away from themselves they've got this in the bag. We *have* to lynch 4 times in a row or we lose. If we act greedy and go for two kills now and miss even one, we lose. I think the safer thing to do is just lynch Radfield for the time being-- if by pouring over people's posts and such we find another sure mafia candidate we should go for the MH plan again, but everyone should know that if a SINGLE bomb target isn't mafia town LOSES INSTANTLY. It's the same situation eitherway. If a SINGLE lynch isn't mafia town LOSES INSTANTLY. If we go for the lynch option and manages to lynch a mafia today, all it would take is for mafia to convince 1 person to vote with them and town loses. But if we kill the MH, mafia have no chance at all of trying to convince people who town should kill.
This. Nemesis said it pretty much as well as I could have.
Lynching the MH will put us in a better position in the coming days if he was right about his targets. If one bomb is wrong, yes, that would suck. However, I feel that I would rather make the gamble that the 2 bombs kill mafia, so we only need 2 consecutive lynches as opposed to 4.
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Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence.
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On December 08 2010 03:27 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 03:09 kitaman27 wrote:On December 08 2010 03:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence. You heard the man, no going back now that he role claimed. If your vote isn't on him then you make yourself a target. What if someone else claims and you two are mafia? Just asking, that would be funny. 
Why would I tell people to lynch me if I'm mafia? lol
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On December 08 2010 03:34 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 03:29 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 03:27 CubEdIn wrote:On December 08 2010 03:09 kitaman27 wrote:On December 08 2010 03:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence. You heard the man, no going back now that he role claimed. If your vote isn't on him then you make yourself a target. What if someone else claims and you two are mafia? Just asking, that would be funny. Why would I tell people to lynch me if I'm mafia? lol First of all, I'm just going into deep WIFOM here, but since you're playing along with the discussion, let's digress! Many reasons! a) Find out who the real MH is (look for the guy with a surprised look on his face that seems to be going "heeeeeeey....") b) Cause a huge shit storm, in case there are 2 MHs claiming. The Mafia will be united, but the town won't. They will no longer know who to trust and votes will be split at least 2-ways (tho, one of them will be the real MHer so no harm there I guess). c) Draw attention to some players while hiding others. A lot can happen if that amount of chaos is ensued. I'm not saying it's a wise move for mafia, It's not. But it would be hella-funny, and not as unreasonable as it sounds. The only real argument against it is that town doesn't have any real leads anyway, so there's no need to push a snowball down the hill.
Hah, well, considering the stuff KJ pulled in Doc's Experimental Mafia yesterday, that doesn't sound THAT far-fetched =P
But I assure you, I am the real MH.
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On December 08 2010 04:17 Radfield wrote:
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing??
Was this a soft claim that you and Eiii are scum and that we should lynch you today and tomorrow? Interesting...
Also, now that I'm outed there is no chance for me to get hit by the mafia tonight, so my role is null unless we use it.
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On December 08 2010 04:39 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 04:28 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 04:17 Radfield wrote:
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing?? Was this a soft claim that you and Eiii are scum and that we should lynch you today and tomorrow? Interesting... Also, now that I'm outed there is no chance for me to get hit by the mafia tonight, so my role is null unless we use it. Are you joking? I assume you're referring to this sentence: + Show Spoiler +If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). Obviously lynching me today is just as much an auto-loss as lynching you(the MH). I'm trying to show that this is a bad idea in principle, and that this is not the optimum strategy right now. Using your role is not a priority by any stretch. Also, there is a very good chance you will get hit by mafia tonight, since at least one of your bombs is on a townie.
Also, I would like to point out that we are not trying to "stifle discussion". Kitaman and I brought up the idea at the beginning of the day, almost 48 hours ago. Very little discussion occurred. We are now on the final leg of the day and a decision needs to be made, so I made one. It's not like at the beginning of the day we were like "SHHHHH THIS IS WHAT WE'RE GONNA DO AND TO ALL THOSE WHO OPPOSE WE CAN'T HEAR YOU". No.
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If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Sure sounded like that's what you were insinuating.
I am going to stick by my guns (or bombs, I guess). If I learned anything from Experimental mafia yesterday, it's to not doubt myself, no matter how doubtful I am.
I am about to go to practice, and I am not sure exactly what time day ends, so I don't know if I will be back before then. The decision is now in the hands on the town. Stay focused, don't let scum cloud your vision. Do you guys want to go for the Hail Mary pass? Or trust Radfield and the ability of the town to get 4 lynches in a row.
I apologize beforehand if my plan does not work out. I believe we will blow up some mafia if you follow me though. Best of luck town.
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On December 08 2010 08:46 Eiii wrote:
alright this isn't really going in a positive direction here and it's probably too late to do anything about it.
Kitaman PM'd me earlier and basically asked if I'd be able to vote later today. I said yeah, I would, and he replied that the town was going to go along with the hatter plan. I checked the voting thread, and there were lots of votes for hatter there, so I threw mine in as well. At the time I didn't know for sure where the bombs were placed. I'm not in the town circle, and I wasn't about to second guess their decision. I feel like we're in an unwinnable situation, and that this is the wrong move to make but I'm not about to potentially let mafia win the game any earlier than they have to by splitting the town's vote.
obviously I'm going to take back my vote now that I *know* that I'm a bomb target.
Well I believe that is a lie. You placed your vote at 8:48.
Kitaman PMd me this from you:
From: Eiii
Subject: Re: Salem
Date: 12/8/10 04:58
:/ alright
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From kitaman27:
mmk thanks. It looks like we are going to vote for the MH jcarl.
Note the time: 4:58. You clearly knew that the bomb was placed on you, hence the ":/" and yet you're not going to argue it.
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On December 08 2010 09:09 Eiii wrote:
The ":/" is because I thought the plan had almost no chance of succeeding! My intention with that line was more along the lines of "mark my words..." than a definite statement, and it was dumb to say looking back on it. I had (and have) no trust in the town's ability to identify two mafia with 100% accuracy, and I wasn't happy that that was the plan we were moving forward with-- but I was NOT going to fuck everything up by voting against the town. Problem is, now voting with the town fucks everything up so I have to take the worst of both.
No confidence in town being able to identify two mafia with 100% accuracy? Well our other alternative is to lynch 4 with 100% accuracy. I don't quite see how that is any better.
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Awww oh well.
No, I never said the second bomb was on Eiii. That was a ruse put on by kita.
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I know I should have chosen the safer route, but I wanted to take a big risk. I knew Radfield was scum, so at least I got that right.
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EPT
