TL Mafia XXXI

On October 02 2010 13:34 bumatlarge wrote:
I did about ten minutes on the minimafia II and I did fine.

Oh wait no I didnt.

On October 05 2010 06:16 Happy.fairytail wrote:
I actually don't think there's a difference whether we pick by random or inactive because:

a) Inactive doesn't necessarily mean non-blue. I've seen plenty of games where the DT was very quiet and seemingly inactive. He evaded all mafia suspicion and survived to the mid game and revealed himself. With himself and 3 innocent townsperson, he was able to establish a lasting majority against the mafia and win.

b) We have an equal chance of picking a village idiot whether we go random or inactive. It's not like we have special insight into the idiot's tactics that would give us an edge in determining one method or the other.

I think the two most important things are:

a) Communication. The upside far outweighs the downside, and I think we all agree here, no need to explain further.

b) We lynch someone every round. I'm going to prove this for another post statistically...

On October 05 2010 07:00 Happy.fairytail wrote:
Why we should lynch every round

Let's take a simplified game example: 9 total people, 2 mafia, no cop. In my 3 scenarios below, I demonstrate how it's better to have as many guesses as possible, as statistically this drastically increases your chances of getting at least one mafia killed.



As you can see, if we were to take the extreme case of waiting to the last possible round to vote, we would need to have information that increases our probability of picking a mafia by 27% as compared to randomly lynching every round. Personally, I don't have the confidence in our ability to do that.

Secondly, it is imperative that we reduce the Mafia count to 3, which would halve the rate at which they can kill people at night. The early we do this, the better.

Now, with the addition of a DT, we should consider the odds of him getting killed, his optimal "coming out" period, and how that affects our scenario above.



The important thing to note that in the above case is that if there's a lynching every round, the cop's survival rate going into the last round = 73% ... every further round that goes by, the cop may get further killed, and his pick at night is diluted by the fact that there's townspeople. Yes he has a higher chance of getting a mafia as time goes by, but consider this -- if the cop can survive to the last round, and has 2 confirmed innocents, he can win the game by revealing himself and rallying himself + 2 = 3 over the 2 mafia to win. However, you have to offset that with the probability that the cop and mafia will have coinciding picks at least one of the 2 nights: 1 - (1 - (1/7 police pick * 1/5 mafia pick * 5 possible townspeople = 1/7) * 1 - (1/5 police pick * 1/3 mafia pick * 3 townspeople = 1/5)) = 31%.

In other words, lynching every round in the above simplified game has a 42% chance of auto-winning by cop, and a 67% chance of going beyond the round of 5 people. I dont' know how to do the exact calculations, but I strongly suspect that your chances of auto-winning by cop with more rounds goes down since his survival rate decreases by 11% since he must survive to the round of 5 people left no matter what, which probably doesn't completely offset however much the 31% risk of choosing same targets at night is decreased. Additionally, you have a higher chance of getting beyond the round of 5 in lynching every round.


Hope this helps...

On October 06 2010 00:29 Crisis_ wrote:


Well, these inactives are the candidates that I'm in favor of voting of. And yea, I'm new, so I'm probably shit at this game rofl. I wouldn't be surprised if I screwed up the whole game.

I've attempted to give advice to the DT, but now I'm not so sure if it was a great idea or not.

On October 06 2010 05:27 Pandain wrote:
I don't count Cynan as inactive and Nobody should vote for him because his actions thus far are in accordance with his previous play. That's not to say I'm not watching him(I am) but he's not that suspicious to me.

On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote:
At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much.

We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives.

Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/

What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet.

On October 06 2010 10:54 SiNiquity wrote:
so protactinium, who are you? You're tied for the lead to be killed.

On October 07 2010 09:18 LSB wrote:
Divinek is being pretty active

Pandian is writing weird stories again. That probably means he's Red or Blue

As for the Newcomers, I haven't read much, but it should be pretty easy to tell if one of them is Green. Are any of them superactive?

Lastly, Someone go Protect/Investigate Xelin. Brownbear just told us straight out that he's Red or Blue

On October 08 2010 05:20 Bill Murray wrote:
I am certain of BC, but noone will fucking lynch him. That is why I'm asking DTs to check. If he comes back as "town", he is the godfather. If he is blue, he is possibly legit.

On October 09 2010 13:18 Protactinium wrote:
Hrm would anybody be averse to me just flipping Misder? It'll save some time for anybody waiting.

On October 10 2010 23:59 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Can someone explain to me why we voted for a double lynch? I could have sworn we were going to get this insane amount of information, yet from what it seems we're still running around with our heads cut off.

Like what the hell happened yesterday? The day seemed pretty cut and dry. Vote Xelin and then see if mafia touches BM. Was this plan not sound? Then someone suggested a double lynch. I wasn't keen on the idea of doing this, and I vocally said going for a double lynch so early was a terrible idea.

So now we didn't lynch Xelin, but instead went for someone who wasn't even being discussed until the last 12 hours of the day (since I checked frequently up until then). What seems to be the plan? Where does Xelin sit on the list? BM? Did we just forget about them.

For the second lynch, you guys can figure it out. You wanted 2, now start investigating. I'm going to just vote for Xelin again since the double lynch plan was more sound with Xelin dying yesterday and BM dying today.

On October 10 2010 09:04 Pandain wrote:
Mmmm in case I die I leave to you my last thoughts:
3. Bill Murray
5. SouthRawrea
6. Amber[LighT]
8. Divinek-albeit I do have suscpcions
10.SINiquity
11.XeliN
12.kane]deth[
13.~OpZ~
14.DoctorHelvetica
15.infinitestory
17.Happy.fairytail BloodyC0bbler
18.NukeTheBunnys
19.Crisis_
20.drag_
21.CynanMachae :p
22.meeple
23.kingjames01
24.ghrur

On October 09 2010 02:23 drag_ wrote:
Ok thanks for clarifying.
I guess I'll give a little insight into what I'm thinking:
NuketheBunnys: This guy kinda seems a little clueless of the big picture, I'm not so sure on his analysis and his comments, he seems to focus on inactives. However, I think it's pretty fair to say he's town. The style of his writing and the way he comes off is very hard to fake imo, so I'd be fairly sure he's town. Say 85%
BM: Asshole. Would be a definite target for tomorrow, however I'm unsure about him today.
DocH + Pandain: I'm almost positive you two are either Blue or Red. There's something not quite right about both of you, but I can't put my finger on it. ATM I'm more inclined to agree that you're Blue, however I'm a little skeptical at your strong support of a double lynch. That said, I have no real reason to suspect your red - just a gut feeling you know?
BM: asshole. That said, I feel you're pretty harmless. You clearly have this whole "TL Mafia" persona, from looking at your other posts outside of mafia. I feel that although he looks harmless, he needs to die. I hope he gets vigi'd but he would definitely be a target for me tomorrow.
Xelin and Crisis_: These guys are shady. But I really no connection between the two of them - I have a feeling one of them is red and the other is green, however I can't put my finger on it.
KingJames: Really got no read on you - you were really aggressive on day 1, but since then you've basically posted 0 content. This might be because you don't want to stick out - meaning you could either be taking orders from someone else, or you don't want to become a target. Really unsure about you.
Other people really haven't been on my radar. These aren't meant to be taken as accusations, more just what's running through my head if you feel me.

On October 12 2010 04:55 drag_ wrote:
Ok, I did some voting analysis for what it's worth. There a lot of assumptions, but here goes:
Firstly, some assumptions.
The mafia has 5 votes. I think it's fair to say that they clearly do not vote in one big block. However I think it's also fair to say that they don't vote for 5 different guys completely randomly. My guess would be that the mafia may be split into 2 or 3 groups - where each day 2 people will vote for the guy they want to hit to make sure he dies, and the others will vote relatively randomly to prevent any sort of pattern emerging. This could be true because the mafia will never stay in one group, because if one gets caught then it makes it much easier to find the rest. This is all theory - no factual evidence to support this, but I think it could possibly make sense.
Therefore, to identify some clue of who the mafia is we need to look at someone who votes for the person killed, and then votes for someone on pretty weak evidence. However this is far too general, and cannot be conclusive. However the vote for the double lynch just passed yesterday gaining exactly the 12 votes needed. Now there were 20 voters yesterday - I will not include myself because I'm confident in my not being red. If we look at around two hours before the vote there are three votes for double lynch that come in the space of 15 mins. Now there is nothing overly suspicious of this, except that all three of these people had voted before with who they wanted to lynch and then as it seemed the double would not pass they support it. These are:
LSB
Sinquity
Crisis_
Now just for fun I'll do a little probing into each of them.
I'm unsure about LSB - he didn't make a vote first day so it's hard to analyze what the rationale behind his vote was.

Sinquity is a little more fishy potentially. On day 1 he voted for protactinum, who was later lynched. He does not post an actual reason for protactinium, unless I can't find it. Also, on day 1 the person who attacked him the most was Panda, a very good townie. Panda was later bumped off the next day. However next day he votes for meeple, and is the only one too, seemingly without any reason. Then a full day later he posts his rather short explanation

This really is not convincing reasoning to me. It seems half hearted, and furthermore he does not follow up with this after he votes. He has not mentioned Meeple at all since this post if I searched correctly. The timing of his vote for Meeple is also peculiar. He votes at 11:45, when it is almost certain that Misder is going to be lynched. At his time of voting he still hasn't provided justification for Meeple, I believe. This to me almost seems like he just picked a random then attempted to justify it later. Why?
I believe he was waiting to make sure misder got lynched. Once it was clear he cast a vote that would draw attention away from himself.
Furthermore he votes for the double lynch late in the evening, at 10:22, under the pretext that Xellin told him that there were unlimited doubles. This is dubious. If you were curious, you would look on the front page, where it clearly states there are 2 remaining. Unless of course he's looking for an excuse to pull back on his vote at a later date. Once again why?
At his time of voting there was a lot of voting activity in general. It was not absurd to see someone withdrawing from the double. However his vote gave the double a 1 vote security against this. It would be more revealing if every time someone pulled out, one person immediately took his place to make an exact 12. He himself then pulls out because he sees Xelin "lied to him". This draws attention away from him and to Xelin, when it was a simple problem to begin with, and it supplies him with a fair motive to change his vote. Although I'm unsure why he pulled out. This is what puzzles me. One possible motive is that he wants to give a conservative front and act as if he wants as little death as possible, contrary to the mafia. I'm unsure, but I have to say the statistics are little curious.

Crisis_:
He follows the same pattern of voting for the person who gets lynched, and then voting seemingly randomly. He votes for protactinium, and then he is the ONLY person to vote for BillMurray. He once again posts his vote before giving a reason. His explanation is also not very convincing:

He posts this after his vote. This is not an explanation of any detail. He later claims he will change his vote, but of course he does not. However, he does participate in the voting thread again. This clearly means that he hasn't forgotten, but has no intentions of switching his vote. At 8:49 at the end of Day 2 he makes this post

From this we know that he is aware Panda is online, and Panda replies to his question 3 minutes later, yet it takes Crisis a full 1 and a half to change his post, and he provides 0 reasoning for it. This makes it seem as if he is asking someone else about the double lynch.
His vote change is at the same time as Sinquinity's. To me it appears that he was waited for Sinquinity to reply to his question about the double lynch, and getting the go ahead from siniquity, he changes his vote. From the time of their posts we can tell that they were online at the same time. Sin had not posted for awhile, while we know that Crisis had been online for a long time. There is very little reason I can see for the delay in Crisis changing his vote, unless he was waiting for something, like Sin answering his question.
This may also explain Sin's post including Xellin. A potential scenario: Sin replies to Crisis to vote for the double. Sin then sees it might not past and wants to vote for it to create a bandwagon effect, or just for some insurance. However he sees the proximity of their posts and sees this could be a link between them. He puts in the bit about Xellin as a cover story.

The above is merely theory, and of course cannot be proven. However, I felt like it was an interesting idea, and wanted to share it.
That said I'm suspicious of crisis and siniquity until they can prove otherwise.

On October 12 2010 08:50 SouthRawrea wrote:
Oh and Meeple, forget all the other people I was going to analyze. You're next.

(Also wow my post is loooong lol)

On October 12 2010 09:19 LSB wrote:

LMAO. I didn't notice that

Hahahahahahahahaha