|
On October 09 2010 03:56 CynanMachae wrote:
So you are basically saying that out of the 4 mafias leftover (since i would be the 5th one), I knew that they would swing it over by all voting for someone else and saving me? Seems a pretty dumb mafia move right there with the 6 voters on Protactanium and bumatlarge being a confirmed green.
I didn't feel threatened cause the 3 votes I had happened very early on with quite bad reasons and the rest of the thread was about others suspects/inactives pretty much. 3 hours is quite a lot of time if I come back and see I'm getting the rest of the votes.
Actually, you voted for me less than an hour after BM started his crusade against Proctat. then one hour after your vote 3 people voted for Proctat. And I didn't say they had to all vote for them, that would be pretty dumb. Keeping in mind most of the votes were new players, its not suprising a late minute bandwagon could happen.
On October 09 2010 03:56 CynanMachae wrote:
So, basically, when someones change his mind, he's mafia right? You might want to look at the vote history again and see who talked about voting for an inactive at some point and then who they voted for.
When I said that, I actually did that. Then a couple hours later I changed it with reasons why. You, however, never voted for an inactive.
On October 09 2010 03:56 CynanMachae wrote:
Lol, you just quoted my post about that, just look it up. Let's word it up better tho: I said that there was only BM's crap around when I came to post, so I didn't post.
You say "guys wtf is happening just ignore him." You didn't say "I'm not going to talk until he stops."
However, this is sufficient defense and enough of a response for me to withdraw my vote for the time being. I think the results of BM will help determine your alignment especially.
|
Alright, I'll go over Infinitestory's posts too
|
An Analysis of Infinitestory
Summary:
Infinitestory has been mostly pro town this game. He makes analysis, contributes to discussion, and offers his thoughts on certain things. While some posts in particular are suspect, overall they can be discounted as of now because of his other posts.I am uncertain about infinite story, but leaning towards green. With that, I do not think Infinitestory is a viable day 2 lynch.
His posts this game:
On October 06 2010 11:10 infinitestory wrote:I say in order to neutralize the village idiot, village makes a "deal" with mafia. Once the VI is made obvious, the villagers will announce that they will all vote to lynch VI if he is not mafia-killed overnight. Since the mafia aren't going to sit back and watch themselves lose, VI will be neutralized. If VI is NOT neutralized, either mafia lose, OR the "VI" is actually Godfather posing as VI; in the latter case, the villagers stand to gain a huge amount. Now that this plan has been announced, VI must try get himself lynched subtly or risk the above plan being put into action. Be cautious, guys. EDIT: i voted for proactinium because BrownBear did too  its the cool thing to do
His first post. Note the edit. He's new, so this can be okay though. Still suscipcious though. I don't like this plan, but that's because this plan revolves all around wifom. But that isn't bad in itself, but the wifom I see makes it bad to me. To me, mafia would just not kill the VI, and let the town try to lynch the VI. Would they actually do it?
Still, it's not that bad. However, the edit is! Look at his reasoning, because "brownbear did too". It's someone other than brownbear, but the point is that that reason is just so horrible it stinks of za scum.
On October 06 2010 11:19 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 11:14 Protactinium wrote:On October 06 2010 11:10 infinitestory wrote:I say in order to neutralize the village idiot, village makes a "deal" with mafia. Once the VI is made obvious, the villagers will announce that they will all vote to lynch VI if he is not mafia-killed overnight. Since the mafia aren't going to sit back and watch themselves lose, VI will be neutralized. If VI is NOT neutralized, either mafia lose, OR the "VI" is actually Godfather posing as VI; in the latter case, the villagers stand to gain a huge amount. Now that this plan has been announced, VI must try get himself lynched subtly or risk the above plan being put into action. Be cautious, guys. EDIT: i voted for proactinium because BrownBear did too its the cool thing to do No editing. Also, as I've already stated town threatening to lynch VI doesn't scare the Mafia. If the VI is lynched, everybody (excluding the VI, of course) loses. Why would Mafia feel forced to have to kill him at night? BrownBear is the host. When did he vote for me? Also "its the cool thing to do" is such a nice statement to make, obvious implications notwithstanding. I stated the exact reason. If village threatens to kill village idiot, mafia's only option to stay in the game is to kill the village idiot at night. I know full well the win condition of the village idiot, and it is the EXACT reason the mafia should feel compelled to carry out the dirty work of removing him. oh, and i meant Bill Murray voted for you :/ I was feeling sad about having to vote on day 1 without evidence, but your reply which is a blatant invective rather than an attempt to cooperate/defend self has caused me to lose sympathy. I apologize if this is unfounded or wrong, but making personal attacks on each other in the beginning is one of the hallmarks of a player who is unhelpful in the long run, from my experience.
This is what I dont like. Now he's changing his reason to he "blatantly attacked him." He's voting for him because he's mean. That's not a good reason. Also note that the supposed "invective" occured after he voted for him. Meaning that was not his original reason. DUN DUN DUN(can you tell I'm slightly hyper)
On October 06 2010 11:38 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 11:29 SiNiquity wrote:
This presumes the Mafia is in a position to win - if they feel like they're losing, then it's the town's game to lose by following through with the lynch. As long as the mafia are still in the game, they stand to lose by not night-killing the VI, regardless of whether it's also "the town's game to lose." To win, the mafia must remove both the VI and the town. A 1% chance to win the game is still preferable to simply losing. I know I've seen games where 1 mafia took out several town by himself with some clever lynch voting. :/ We should also try to start figuring out (if we've already done this, sorry, I just jumped in :/) what role Godfather is posing as, to help the DT do his job with the utmost accuracy. My first thought was that Godfather would pose as VI, and after that I can't decide which of the blue roles (barring DT of course) would be the most viable to pose as. Posing as bulletproof or veteran would cause the DT to defend him heavily against lynch kills, but I think the same probably applies for medic, mad hatter, and vigilante. Any other opinions?
this is a pretty good post. what strikes me is he's continuing to try to push this plan, asking for opinions, which seems to me he wants to make it better. That strikes me as prot own. Also, he's trying to help by solving vital things, which while speculative, isn't scum like. This is pro town.
On October 06 2010 11:45 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 11:40 Pandain wrote:On October 06 2010 11:24 infinitestory wrote:On October 06 2010 11:22 Protactinium wrote:
I'm sorry, am I attacking you? I was pretty sure I was just attacking your ideas, good sir. Well, then can you offer a logical argument as to why mafia would abstain from night-killing village idiot if village idiot is exposed and town makes the threat I outlined above? I would be glad to hear any thoughtful criticism, as this plan needs to work perfectly to actually get rid of that idiotic nuisance. Basically, if the town's going to be that much of a panda poacher than mafia can just do the same thing. They don't hit the VI. Then what? We doom ourselves? Chances are we change our mind and the mafia are 1 up on us. Basically, the plan revolves entirely around wifom, which should rarely be used in mafia. Alright, we have two explantions from why they voted Proctat. What about you, Sinquity? I guess my entire plan is based around the assumption that mafia doesn't want to lose, which isn't such a safe assumption at all apparently. I guess equally viable would be that the Vigilante nightkill the VI as soon as VI is revealed. Town really can't lose from killing VI at night, because either VI will go or Godfather will go, and they should both be priorities IMO.
Starts to retract his idea, offers up that vigi kill VI(which is true.) Good so far.
On October 06 2010 11:59 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 11:49 Protactinium wrote:
To summarize, since there's more information now: if Poisoner and Roleblocker show up to a check, they are definitely that. And since they are Mafia power roles, why not reveal them? I want to say that sacks a very valuable DT, but especially to reveal poisoner that's definitely worth it. I'm not so sure about revealing roleblocker, because roleblocker's own ability is far more situational to the reds. @Divinek: The primary reason is that the mafia do not win if town dies. If town loses by VI, mafia also loses by VI. Don't say you didn't consider that. Your counterargument was stated at least twice previously, and better ones have been suggested.
Offers opinions and when/if DT shoudl reveal. I think it is some valid opinons. Right now I don't really see anything so bad about infinitestory.
On October 06 2010 12:09 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 12:01 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On October 06 2010 11:59 infinitestory wrote:On October 06 2010 11:49 Protactinium wrote:
To summarize, since there's more information now: if Poisoner and Roleblocker show up to a check, they are definitely that. And since they are Mafia power roles, why not reveal them? I want to say that sacks a very valuable DT, but especially to reveal poisoner that's definitely worth it. I'm not so sure about revealing roleblocker, because roleblocker's own ability is far more situational to the reds. @Divinek: The primary reason is that the mafia do not win if town dies. If town loses by VI, mafia also loses by VI. Don't say you didn't consider that. Your counterargument was stated at least twice previously, and better ones have been suggested. the town does not win if the VI is lynched so why does that matter? town threatening to lynch VI is empty and mafia would just ignore it completely. that wouldn't even work since in order to threaten to lynch the VI they have to know who the VI is meaning the mafia will likely know as well and can just hit him at night Alright. I give up on my argument. I relent. I crack under pressure. Does that please you? What I intended was simply to get people thinking hard about how to get rid of VI, as he is a problem that must be solved through the cooperation of multiple roles. I guess you have an excellent reason for showing me up here, though. Shall we discuss something else now?
gives up plan, its alright. I don't see why not following through on a plan is bad if its proven the plan is fundamentally flawed in some aspect.
On October 06 2010 12:14 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 12:09 Infundibulum wrote:On October 06 2010 12:07 NukeTheBunnys wrote:
On that note, Im changing my vote to Protactinium. I don't want the mafia to be able to swing the vote away from a mafioso, and there certainly are enough no votes so far to swing the vote to just about anyone. so Im just going to put the leader further ahead. Also dealing with smurfs does not seem fun. Wait. So you don't think Protact is mafia, but you're still voting him anyway? He's worried that if Protact is mafia, the mafia will pull some shenanigans and change the leader away from him before lynch.
Explains something.
On October 06 2010 12:33 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 12:29 Amber[LighT] wrote:
I don't think lynching Protactinium is a good idea. It's obvious there's a bandwagon vote going on and most of the hesitation is because of pages 15-17... not really anything to get up in arms over. Definitely should consider other players. I've been considering it, and I'm going to change my vote to make it as inconsequential as possible (voting for someone with few votes who is likely to be modkilled). I think I jumped the gun on this vote.
I don't like this. changes his vote, and while he says he thinks he jumped the gun, voting for someone with few votes who will be modkilled just does not seem good to me. Maybe he's unconfident? Nonetheless, suspicious.
On October 07 2010 12:09 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2010 11:10 LSB wrote:
If Xelin turns out to be green, that either means 1) He's Godfather. 2) Brownbear did sub out Fairytail and Kane due to their Blue/Red roles 3) Brownbear used a random number generator.
I think we should be careful of reading too much into who BrownBear subbed for. I don't know if we could confirm that BrownBear meant "role" as in actual blue/red, bar having a DT check some of the subs and Xelin. Drawing a conclusion like this might lead us down the wrong path with future lynches based on nonexistent evidence. I'm not saying throw this out, I'm saying be careful of putting too much stock into this. This will be a helpful event to keep in the back of our minds if future DT checks do seem to corroborate the theory, but for now, a DT check that turns up green and some questionable evidence isn't good enough for a Godfather confirmation, at least in my mind. Also, in response to LSB's (1) scenario, I have a question. This is my first game here, so those of you with extensive experience: If anything like the Godfather has been in previous games, has the Godfather-equivalent masqueraded as VI, Blue, or Green? If there hasn't been a Godfather equivalent in previous games, what do you all think the Godfather would pose as? Getting some solid ideas about Godfather's role will better equip our DT, in my opinion.
I like this post. He does discount the possibility that BB's (slip?) means Xelin has a role, but he says we shouldn't take it as fact(aka, follow that "evidence" for a while.) Also, he's asking whether the GF has masqueraded as what before.
On October 07 2010 13:40 infinitestory wrote:cSc's only got two posts in the thread since the game began, and judging from his activity and the content of his posts, I don't expect him to explain his vote for bumatlarge insightfully, if at all. His two posts: Show nested quote +Given my schedule I'll be posting from about now till... well hopefully until the day ends. Seeing as how I'm new I guess this lynch the inactive's makes sense, and to avoid being one of the first ones to go, Here I am! Show nested quote +If you don't have enough information to make an educated vote, is it better to go with the majority, or vote randomly?
Yeah where is cSc?
On October 07 2010 14:35 infinitestory wrote:my suspects HFT/BC - Probably top of my suspect list. The contradiction BM found in HFT's posts is pretty good evidence, although I'm less convinced about BC's "rolefishing." For new players, that honestly is pretty good advice. BM - I'm torn. He did "lose" us on the first day, but he also found an anti-town. He has been acting like a village idiot with his plan to weed out greens (which I believe doesn't make any sense), but he has also provided us with a solid lead for a suspect. I think his analysis for who's anti-town is valuable, so I wouldn't vote to leech him for now. Ghrur - He did vote for Protact, but he had a reasoned post, and I think he was simply duped by Protact. I don't think he was very scummy from what I saw. cSc - He's not so much a suspect as an inactive or a newbie; I don't know if he will post his logic for bumatlarge (if he had any) or if we will get anything out of it. Crisis - his "stuck between a rock and a hard place" is pretty odd, and this post: Show nested quote +On October 06 2010 12:50 Crisis_ wrote:
I'll just tell you right now, I'm not red. which was made AFTER he voted protact to put himself out of the lead is also questionable. My #2 suspect, and as OpZ said, definitely needs to be in a higher light. Dr. H - Looks like he really doesn't like Misder, but I can definitely see why. I wouldn't suspect him so much because his arguments have been pretty focused and reasonable. OpZ - Narrow your suspect list. It's obvious you're good at picking out odd posts, but I want to see your top few.
This post is good. He makes analysis of people, with reasons backing it up. Don't see anything blaringly wrong with this analysis either.
Then he hasn't posted for a while. I'd like him to do that more.
|
Xelin post about other stuff, like who we should lynch today.(and vote double lynch btw).
I'd like to get some posts outside that controversy
|
On October 09 2010 05:00 XeliN wrote:
Well one thing I will say is that I do not think the arguments, or perhaps analysis is a better term, you have layed out is enough to warrant the conclusion Cynan is mafia
At best you've outlined inconsistency in what he's posted, but going from that to the claim he is definately mafia is quite a stretch to me and I'm abit suprised you've jumped to the assumption.
This is purely in response to your analysis on him, I'm not saying I consider to be, or not to be mafia.
Yeah I get quite worked up when I write analysis. One of my faults, I may become blind to certani aspects. He layed out some good defenses so I'm going to vote someone else, as I've said.
|
On October 09 2010 04:24 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 04:13 Pandain wrote:
Alright, I'll go over Infinitestory's posts too check out SINiquity as well, he's a pretty big blip on my radar right now
I won't do any hardcore analysis since they are quite tiring and he has alot of posts. Most of them are short however. Things I do notice are he hasn't really contributed that much, most of his posts are 2-3 sentences, and the only big post was his last one which was disproved. The one thing that struck out to me was he voted for Protact because he wouldn't reveal who he was smurfing as. Lynching a person that had made pro town posts(in my opinion) and was obviously going to be an active contributor because of such a reason stuck out to me.
Really I'd like to see him post more before making a decision.
Right now I think we need to make a choice between Xelin and Misder, and everyone needs to vote double lynch.
Also where did south go?
|
Just so the last thing everyone reads is this:
VOTE FOR DOUBLE LYNCH
|
On October 09 2010 08:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 07:49 BrownBear wrote:A disclaimer: Since it is Friday night, the night post might be a little late. I will not accept votes timestamped after the night ends, but I might be out blazed in the woods somewhere at midnight, so won't be able to write up the post. It will happen though, don't worry  aw what about artanis?
Artanis is a myth. Artanis does not exist.
|
On October 09 2010 08:20 kingjames01 wrote:
Maybe I don't understand something but a lot of people seem to think that Double Lynching tomorrow night is a good idea. At first, I thought that this would just be something that mafia would support since it's so early. However, there are now 8 votes in favour of the Double Lynch.
Someone explain to me why we should take a risk with this. I've already asked and we can't take it back tomorrow. Is the plan to use one of the kills on Bill Murray if he doesn't get killed tonight, like Pandain and NukeTheBunnys had suggested? I'm still not convinced that he's Red. What if he's a second Village Idiot? What if he was just really excited because he thought that he could single-handedly corral all of the mafia?
Give me a good reason or I'm going to abstain from that vote. Also, I don't understand how not voting Double Lynch is anti-town.
If he's VI, than unless the mafia get EXTREMELY lucky and roleblock the vigi he will die. It's true, we are taking a slight risk. But a very small one. But the possibility that he's VI AND the vigi get's roleblocked is less than .01% asumming an equal chance of everything. Of course analysis can find things pure statistics can, think about that.
Do you really think we're not going to have enough info by tommorow? With a (hopefully) vigi kill, this lynch, all the previous info, and possibly a dt check?
|
On October 09 2010 08:38 kingjames01 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 08:30 Pandain wrote:On October 09 2010 08:20 kingjames01 wrote:
Maybe I don't understand something but a lot of people seem to think that Double Lynching tomorrow night is a good idea. At first, I thought that this would just be something that mafia would support since it's so early. However, there are now 8 votes in favour of the Double Lynch.
Someone explain to me why we should take a risk with this. I've already asked and we can't take it back tomorrow. Is the plan to use one of the kills on Bill Murray if he doesn't get killed tonight, like Pandain and NukeTheBunnys had suggested? I'm still not convinced that he's Red. What if he's a second Village Idiot? What if he was just really excited because he thought that he could single-handedly corral all of the mafia?
Give me a good reason or I'm going to abstain from that vote. Also, I don't understand how not voting Double Lynch is anti-town.
If he's VI, than unless the mafia get EXTREMELY lucky and roleblock the vigi he will die. It's true, we are taking a slight risk. But a very small one. But the possibility that he's VI AND the vigi get's roleblocked is less than .01% asumming an equal chance of everything. Of course analysis can find things pure statistics can, think about that. Do you really think we're not going to have enough info by tommorow? With a (hopefully) vigi kill, this lynch, all the previous info, and possibly a dt check? So what you're saying is that with a Vigilante kill, a lynch vote, 2 mafia kills, a Detective check (also, a possibility for a Medic Save), we're going to learn a lot. Fine, I can see that. I still feel very uneasy about what's going to happen tonight. I feel like the town is quickly losing control and I want us to stop our infighting so that we can use our heads again. I have 2 questions for you: 1) Why do you assume that there is a mafia RoleBlocker? 2) Why did you stop pushing CynanMachae? I still don't think he's in the clear.
1.It's in the roles, but your right, theres a chance it doesn't exist. Still, all that would do is support going for double lynch since we won't have to worry about him.
2.He's not, but he defended himself well enough that I want to wait till BM's result until I re examine him. That and if I do an analysis on another person who I don't know is mafia theres the chance other people may start voting for him.
|
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp
|
On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that.
If you really don't think we can get two mafia by then....you don't have much faith in town lol. I think we can. We already have like 5 suspects, albeit I haven't yet analyzed the more expierenced players as of now. I think we'll snatch at least 2 of them.
|
Crisis, while your online, vote for double lynch
|
On October 09 2010 09:49 Crisis_ wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:44 Pandain wrote:
Crisis, while your online, vote for double lynch Okay, I'll consider it. Can you clarify this for me, though? Will the double lynch occur tonight or tomorrow if it passes?
tommorow, but we still get to lynch tonight.
On October 09 2010 09:48 kingjames01 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2010 09:37 Pandain wrote:On October 09 2010 09:34 kingjames01 wrote:On October 09 2010 09:32 Pandain wrote:
Reasons for double lynch
1. We'll have enough info from today's lynch, this whole well of info we already have, a dt check, BM's result, and possibly a medic save.
2.In case BM is mafia
3. In case there is no vigi(doubtful though)
4. We really need to start lowering the mafia kp To go through with this is a calculated risk though. We're leveraging the possibility to sacrifice 2 more players to the mafia. I don't know if I can go through with that. If you really don't think we can get two mafia by then....you don't have much faith in town lol. I think we can. We already have like 5 suspects, albeit I haven't yet analyzed the more expierenced players as of now. I think we'll snatch at least 2 of them. It's not that I don't have faith in us. It's just that there's some luck involved. The ideal situation would be for us to advance in this game without relying on luck. When we open up the question of Double Lynching we give the mafia a chance to control us. Also, 5 suspects doesn't equate to 5 mafia. This seems like a big chance we're discussing. Why hasn't anyone else come out and explained why they are silent on this issue? This affects the entire game and I want to hear what some of the quiet players are thinking. It's like we're forgetting that we're having a conversation where everyone can read and manipulate.
Anytime you lynch someone, theres some luck involved. You could analyze a person who literally said "I AM MAFIA" but theres still luck(aka, he could be lying for some reason.) I don't see how mafia will be able to control us, as long as town doesn't randomly bandwagon someone in like an hour. I didn't say we need 5 mafia, but if we get two we lower their kp.
|
On October 09 2010 10:53 ~OpZ~ wrote:
##Vote Misder
This kid is apologizing for voting for me? Can we lynch him?
Only if you vote for double lynch.
Yes, I spam when I want something done. Now do it.
|
Why does misder always seem scummy to me :/
I have a feeling alot of my analysis are going to be wrong
|
Mmmm in case I die I leave to you my last thoughts:
3. Bill Murray
5. SouthRawrea
6. Amber[LighT]
8. Divinek-albeit I do have suscpcions
10.SINiquity
11.XeliN
12.kane]deth[
13.~OpZ~
14.DoctorHelvetica
15.infinitestory
17.Happy.fairytail BloodyC0bbler
18.NukeTheBunnys
19.Crisis_
20.drag_
21.CynanMachae :p
22.meeple
23.kingjames01
24.ghrur
|
On October 10 2010 10:00 kane]deth[ wrote:What are you basing your accusation on?
shhhhhh its a secret
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
