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TL Mafia XXXI - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 11 2010 17:09 GMT
#1037
So does SouthRawrea think we can't see him posting in another game? Seems stupid to not come in and defend yourself in this game since he's STILL ALIVE.

"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 11 2010 22:17 GMT
#1052
On October 12 2010 05:54 LSB wrote:
SR's response to
Show nested quote +
- Indicates that he opposes lynching inactives because the "town will bandwagon"
- Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives

Removes that suspicion I had on my mind, which was the main thing I was worrying about. Kingjames's accusation did seem a bit too good to be true



Okay, as for my vote. I'm going to splice my vote so it's most likely going to hit a mafia. Notice that if we just kill one mafia, their KP goes down by one.
Firstly, I'm going to stick to attacking Bill Murray. Bill Murray's plan was a horrendous flop. Literally all it does is shows the mafia who is blue. (Ie the people not speaking up). I can't believe I wasn't on at that time, but it's an immediate FOS for me.

Also take a look at Amber_Light.
Firstly, what's up with voting for Xelin and Opz? Amber_Light is indicating that he wants to abstain, but Xelin right now is under a big bandwagon, and I don't like this "abstain" vote that might off someone.
Secondly,
Show nested quote +
Opz wrote

Should Xelin not be sticking his head out? His analysis and his opinions have generally been good. So why isn't he helping us right now? Notice you attack xelin and then defend him. Same with BM. I don't get it. What do you want us to do? You're giving no direction. You are keeping us in a circle, and I don't like it. You need to go.


One problem. Maybe Amber_Light is medic and that's why he is accusing OpZ. I'm more inclined to believe Opz than Amber_Light, simply because the risks that Opz has to take in order to fake claim.



Lastly, check this out
Bill Murray attacks Amber
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2010 04:41 Bill Murray wrote:
pretty good case on amber, opz
considering voting him, possibly even instead of BC. BC has been seeming town moreso to me lately

Amber wants Bill dead
Show nested quote +
On October 08 2010 08:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:
On October 08 2010 07:21 LSB wrote:
On October 08 2010 07:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On October 08 2010 07:08 LSB wrote:
On October 08 2010 07:00 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On October 08 2010 06:57 LSB wrote:
On October 08 2010 06:54 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On October 08 2010 06:50 LSB wrote:
On October 08 2010 06:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
[quote]
or because town isn't going to lynch a village idiot and they don't need to kill him in the first place


I find it quiet hard to believe that there are two VI's in this game.

So what would we do about BM? We can't just ignore him

Vig hit, we've already went over this

Small concern: What if it turns out BM is vet? We lose Vigi powers.

Big concern: Having the Vig kill BM doesn't help out the town at all

It's better to have the Mafia do the dirty work for us than for us to have to do it ourselves.
Essentially we are reducing mafia KP for a night. More people are alive. Yay!


We don't decide what the mafia does. What you don't understand is that the only way this puts mafia in a corner is IF bill murray is mafia

if bill murray isn't mafia they are sitting back and laughing at the pressure while we are essentially saying "if you don't kill this town player we will". if we have reason to believe he is the village idiot than lynching him is stupid


Bill Murray is going to be dead no matter what if he is mafia. Doesn't change the situation for the Mafia at all O.O
If Bill Murray is mafia, mafia is probably cutting losses right now and bandwagoning him.

On the other hand, if Bill Murray isn't mafia, they will kill him. They have to decide between losing the game and using a KP. Obviously they are going to use a KP. If they sit back and laugh they will lose.


so lets clarify you are saying

if mafia doesn't kill bill murray we will lynch him and because he is the VI mafia will lose?

if bill murray isn't mafia and the mafia doesn't kill him what does the mafia stand to lose that we don't? in that scenario both the mafia and the town are under equal pressure and the mafia have the upper hand because they know bill isn't red and we don't

We both agree that if Bill Murray is mafia, there is no difference in the plan.
The point of disagreement is what the mafia would do.

Okay, I have no idea how you're approaching the problem. But I think we aren't on the same page. I'll just explain it again. Think of incentives from the Mafia's point of view.


Assume we are following through with our plan.
It's Night 2.
Mafia knows that Bill Murray isn't one of them.
They either have two options

1) Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is a townie, its business as usually. If Bill Murray is VI they adverted disaster
2) Don't Kill Bill Murray, if Bill Murray is townie, nothing really happens as the town will just double lynch. If Bill Murrary is VI, the town would lynch Bill Murrary, thinking that Bill Murrary is red.

Mafia will find that option 1 is preferable. Option 2 they have a chance of loosing. Option 1 they kill someone that doesn't reveal to the town much information about the mafia.



As for the Town.
It's Day 3.
From our incentive analysis, we realize that if Bill Murrary was green/VI, mafia would have killed him. So if Bill Murrary is green, we wake up with his death post.

If Bill Murrary was red, Mafia wouldn't have killed him. So we know that he is red. So we lynch him and we take out a mafia.

What this plan does is exploit the fact that the mafia knows whether or not Bill Murray is red
Mafia basically knows Bill Murray's role. We don't. So we force the mafia to reveal this information.



I agree with this 100%. This will give us a better answer then having a vigilante kill him. Mafia will want to make sure that he's taken out if they even think he's the village idiot. It doesn't guarantee that there's a possibility of ignoring the thread and going for someone else, but it would seem highly likely for them to halt losing altogether. (would be so embarrassing for town and mafia to have 2 VI's lynched)

Killing BM today should be out of the question, and though I don't really want Xelin to be lynched he hasn't contributed and doesn't even want to explain or defend his position. Hopefully at the least he will flip a townie, mafia if we're really lucky, but I doubt it.

Note that there are 5 mafia in the game, that means at least one of the bandwagons is probably mafia sponsored.
Well, since they are attacking each other, I'm pretty sure that only one of the bandwagons is mafia sponsored. And so I'll split my vote to push for the town bandwagon.



Xelin probably should have died yesterday. I'm indifferent whether you think it's weird that I'm "abstaining" on somebody who is leading in votes, but I said that I thought he should be lynched, and I was against the double lynch. If we had to pick ONE person to lynch today, I would still vote for Xelin.

I "wanted BM dead" if the mafia was left to do it or if a vigilante was feeling daring. There's no reason to really lynch BM and I never felt strongly to want him dead via a lynch. I wouldn't even really read into what BM is doing to be honest. He's just agreeing with the flavor of the week since he can't spam anymore. This won't end well if I get lynched, and people will look to him next because of his awful judgment and misguided perception of players, but hey what do I know, Opz obviously proved indefinitely that I must be mafia since I not once agreed on any vote-train and now I'm challenging something that Opz said.

I'm not playing how I usually do? How do I play that's differing from what I'm doing? You haven't proven that I'm playing any differently, but instead you're weaving in dramatic suspicion about my play-style because you realized every post I made is as pro-town as it gets. I've been playing pro-town the whole game and if anything the fact that I've been highly suspect of EVERY mass vote disaster this game should at the very least clear me, but no, the mob mentality is taking affect and the sheep are being strung along as expected.

Oh and what's my team? Who has actually been idly agreeing with me this game. What will lynching me show? That everybody ignored me? There's no connection between myself and anyone else in this game. I've been attacking and criticizing the same players from the very start. You guys have been under the radar and still alive. Seem like the power players of this game are avoiding death while the vocal outcasts are getting the axe.

I didn't bring up Opz as a suspect because I think absolutely 100% he is lying. I want people to think about EVERYTHING that's going on. It's posts like yours (Opz) which quickly drown in this game because people are so caught up in hypothetical nonsense. We want to focus on how the game progresses day by day, yet the minute someone dares to challenge what someone says the town is in uproar because it's just preposterous. Are you guys aware that this game is entirely based upon deceit? You must be at least a little bit suspicious. Does that mean lynch Opz? No! It means think about everything that's presented. Then we won't waste double lynches like this.

"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 11 2010 22:20 GMT
#1053
Just looked at the vote tally if I die tonight this town is more stupid than I originally thought, and this mafia team is very well established. How I went from not even having a mention to beating someone in votes to a person who should have died yesterday is beyond my own comprehension.

Maybe my outlandish and ridiculous statements will be taken more seriously.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 11 2010 22:51 GMT
#1057
On October 12 2010 07:34 infinitestory wrote:
You addressed everything else, but you kinda dodged the main point against you, which was your unfounded aggression against OpZ. This main point is also probably the main reason for the vote train against you.
Show nested quote +
On October 10 2010 23:59 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Is Opz lying? Well if you want to be sure we can lynch him. He isn't really useful anymore if he's already been hit once. For a number of different reasons, already outlined in the thread, this is pretty illogical He has been playing the fence throughout the whole game. Usually he pushes players against a wall more frequently, and he wasn't doing this in an aggressive way this time.

For the second lynch this implies that you've got OpZ down as lynch #1 in your head, you guys can figure it out. You wanted 2, now start investigating. I'm going to just vote for Xelin again since the double lynch plan was more sound with Xelin dying yesterday and BM dying today.

Instead of trying to justify this comment in your defense, you actually said that you didn't advocate lynching OpZ 100%, but rather wanted to keep us on our toes. I know I should be wary of OpZ lying, but it's pretty clear from the bolded parts of your statement that you want OpZ dead for one reason or another. On top of that, you voted OpZ and tried to say you were abstaining. I just don't see the logic behind it at all, and your defense didn't adequately cover this most pressing point.


My stance on Opz hasn't really changed the whole game. Look at the posts I've made regarding Opz, most of which were subtle critical yet light in emotion. I respect Opz as a player and I usually align with him indirectly in most cases. I want people to be aware of every possibility presented against them, and Opz has given something valuable to the town. I don't want him dead and I'm not pushing for a bandwagon against him. If you want to keep arguing about posting habits since we have sooooo much information for this double lynch then go for it. It's not going to result in flipping mafia members since they're clearly not threatened. They're the ones acting calm and spitting out small tidbits of information to misguide the town.

Did I do that? No. I didn't. I took the time to provide an example of a scenario when this type of claim has occured before. It's entirely possible that Opz is lying. If I wanted to "finish the job" why would I mysteriously push for him in a lynch when there's other candidates who could quite possibly be pro-town as well. I don't think anybody who's really been in the spotlight today is mafia, and this wealth of information isn't definite. We were promised to have an easy day for a double lynch, yet we're bickering until the last minute and new suspects are rising AFTER THE FACT.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 12 2010 00:42 GMT
#1083
On October 12 2010 08:40 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 12 2010 07:51 Amber[LighT] wrote:
On October 12 2010 07:34 infinitestory wrote:
You addressed everything else, but you kinda dodged the main point against you, which was your unfounded aggression against OpZ. This main point is also probably the main reason for the vote train against you.
On October 10 2010 23:59 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Is Opz lying? Well if you want to be sure we can lynch him. He isn't really useful anymore if he's already been hit once. For a number of different reasons, already outlined in the thread, this is pretty illogical He has been playing the fence throughout the whole game. Usually he pushes players against a wall more frequently, and he wasn't doing this in an aggressive way this time.

For the second lynch this implies that you've got OpZ down as lynch #1 in your head, you guys can figure it out. You wanted 2, now start investigating. I'm going to just vote for Xelin again since the double lynch plan was more sound with Xelin dying yesterday and BM dying today.

Instead of trying to justify this comment in your defense, you actually said that you didn't advocate lynching OpZ 100%, but rather wanted to keep us on our toes. I know I should be wary of OpZ lying, but it's pretty clear from the bolded parts of your statement that you want OpZ dead for one reason or another. On top of that, you voted OpZ and tried to say you were abstaining. I just don't see the logic behind it at all, and your defense didn't adequately cover this most pressing point.


My stance on Opz hasn't really changed the whole game. Look at the posts I've made regarding Opz, most of which were subtle critical yet light in emotion. I respect Opz as a player and I usually align with him indirectly in most cases. I want people to be aware of every possibility presented against them, and Opz has given something valuable to the town. I don't want him dead and I'm not pushing for a bandwagon against him. If you want to keep arguing about posting habits since we have sooooo much information for this double lynch then go for it. It's not going to result in flipping mafia members since they're clearly not threatened. They're the ones acting calm and spitting out small tidbits of information to misguide the town.

Did I do that? No. I didn't. I took the time to provide an example of a scenario when this type of claim has occured before. It's entirely possible that Opz is lying. If I wanted to "finish the job" why would I mysteriously push for him in a lynch when there's other candidates who could quite possibly be pro-town as well. I don't think anybody who's really been in the spotlight today is mafia, and this wealth of information isn't definite. We were promised to have an easy day for a double lynch, yet we're bickering until the last minute and new suspects are rising AFTER THE FACT.

Amber, stop arguing for your death. Post some analysis and I'll pull my vote off of you. Seriously. I will. I'm not being spiteful, I just feel you and Xelin are the most suspicious.

Would you like me to show you how your posting different. Watch this, it's about to blow your mind!
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=Amber[LighT]&gb=date

Make sure it filters TL Mafia forum. Click the games with hella frequent posts. Look what Amber is.

HP mafia particularly. You had like 200+ posts that one game!

-___-
Where the hell have you been this game! I quoted damn near every posts. Who have you analyzed. Who have you looked at. My analysis wasn't quick. My words were concise.

Notice how Xelin isn't arguing about dying? Either he just never logs on (possible cuz he disappears randomly), or he is mafia.


You picked the Harry Potter mafia game? That's a terrible example of my play. I rose up as the minister of magic in that game because I WAS Harry Potter. If anything the game you pointed out is NOT my typical play. Nice reversal though.

Look I'm not going to bury the thread with bullshit analysis about players. I don't know half the players in this game and I've reserved judgment for a lot of them. I am however becoming suspicious on these new players who are sitting on the fence.

I'm baffled as to how you would think Xelin and I are the most suspicious when we've been on completely different wavelengths for the whole game. I'm not taking back any suspicions I had on Xelin and I'll defend what I said about him to the death. If you really think it's likely that TWO mafia members are going to start half-arguing in this thread (Where Xelin pretty much dodged me because he couldn't be bothered looking through my posts). You're creating a conclusion that's unsupported, but yet you think we're both the most suspicious.

I'm highly suspicious of SouthRawrea. If I need to change my vote to see him lynched then I will. I have the vote (given to me unwillingly).

Sinquity should be looked at as he's floating around voting and posting sparingly. The most suspicious players are the ones leaving the least amount of paper trail.

And BC is still a suspect in my eyes. I really want to trust him this game but he's really good at manipulating the game when he's mafia. I've pointed this out. He's a good thinker and can create gold from shit in these games.

Drag_ is looking more and more like good lynch candidate with the recent influx of posts.

The people that seem the least likely to be mafia are LSB, DrH, and KingJames. By their posting habits they all seem pro-town and vital assets in the long-term. I'm a bit upset over the fact that LSB's opinions are getting drowned out. He made the last game (mafia xxx???) so easy for the town with his plan. LSB manipulated the game in the towns favor, and he's a strong asset. Why he wasn't hit yet could mean that the mafia isn't familiar with LSB.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 12 2010 00:44 GMT
#1085
EBWOP: If you really think it's likely that TWO mafia members are going to start half-arguing in this thread (Where Xelin pretty much dodged me because he couldn't be bothered looking through my posts) then I really don't know what to tell you. It makes me laugh, if anything. You're creating a conclusion that's unsupported, but yet you think we're both the most suspicious.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 12 2010 02:34 GMT
#1090
look at all the lovely sheep...
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 12 2010 03:55 GMT
#1102
Take a look:

OpZ
infinitestory
Kingjames01
BloodyC0bbler
Bill Murray
SouthRawrea
kane]deth[

"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 12 2010 03:55 GMT
#1103
Mafia will win after 5 minutes.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 12 2010 03:56 GMT
#1104
Add the straggler:

On October 12 2010 12:56 SiNiquity wrote:
##Vote Amber[LighT]
## Vote SouthRawrea



"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 12 2010 12:18 GMT
#1113
To the town:
+ Show Spoiler +
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Can't wait for the post-game wrap up. Sup graveyard buddies
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-10-15 13:43:38
October 15 2010 13:42 GMT
#1249
This was the most passive & wishy washy town ever. You guys listen to one yelling moron and then the mafia just needs to slip a few votes in to make sure things went perfectly. No one did vote analysis. No one did anything except for a select few, and the select few were pushing the wrong buttons (myself included).

Sorry I was temp banned until late last night so I couldn't post -_-

BC once again I knew I shouldn't trust you and I kept saying "I really want to believe he's legit this time."

Oh...

Anyone who got modkilled or did not use their role properly, or if you were a townie and expected someone else to do the work for you, please READ the other mafia threads, and the resources the TL mafia "mods" posted. It's really helpful and doesn't take long to read through.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
Amber[LighT]
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States5078 Posts
October 15 2010 14:13 GMT
#1254
On October 15 2010 22:56 kingjames01 wrote:
To be fair, I actually did A LOT of vote analysis.

hehe... It's just that for the most part, all of the Townies acted like Townies, so I couldn't do anything about them. The 4 players that I had something against were CynanMachae, SouthRawrea, kane]deth[ and drag_. If the game went to one more day, I would have made one more large post.

Oh, I also found from their posts that BC acted like scum pretending to be town and DrH was TOO pro-town to be town... but I couldn't actually come out and say that! =)


I probably should have noted that of all the newer players in this game you definitely were MVP of the newbie group. Most "helpful" should go to you in the sense that you were active. Something was irking me about you too the whole game. I tried to avoid biting on your analysis. But you did really well since you avoided being voted for, but your opinion (like many others) got drowned out by others.
"We have unfinished business, I and he."
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