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Team Melee Mini Mafia II

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 12 2010 19:46 GMT
#48
DTA do you wanna be my lover?
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 17 2010 16:57 GMT
#52
On August 13 2010 04:46 SouthRawrea wrote:
DTA do you wanna be my lover?


No but seriously anyone wanna pair up?
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 19 2010 13:43 GMT
#65
/in I'll just sign up and have ye find me a partner plz :D
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 19 2010 14:23 GMT
#67
Oh okay nvm then. I thought he wasn't sure yet.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
August 21 2010 02:26 GMT
#84
On August 21 2010 09:26 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 21 2010 08:30 Bill Murray wrote:
I've got a fever, and there is only one subscription


Cowbell.


I gotta have more.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 16 2010 02:58 GMT
#145
Everyone hates me D: .
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 18 2010 21:20 GMT
#169
Allo!
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 18 2010 21:44 GMT
#171
Korynne changed it to 8 now.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 19 2010 02:11 GMT
#176
On September 19 2010 10:51 Korynne wrote:
You wake up to the screaming of someone nearby. You try to get up and fall over. To your horror, you've been surgically attached to that screaming voice.


I spent a good 5 minutes chuckling about this.

*accidently drops his ring down the garberator* :O
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 20 2010 00:32 GMT
#216
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.

TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 20 2010 01:04 GMT
#220
I'd like to echo Foolishness's point and say that my take on this game is that it's almost 100% scumhunting. There's a 50% shot at there being a cop and Korynne is unwilling to release any information not included in the OP. (Usually though, medics can't protect themselves) This limits any plans that we may have especially because we don't know the setup and we may not be able to investigate.

Alternatively, Korynne may be setting up a game where we can look for clues with his/her posts to perhaps find the mafia or who's innocent.

Also: EBWOP for my earlier post. I didn't realize that we couldn't NL. I overlooked Korynne's post.

Anyhow, posting is good because we actually have nothing to work with other than posts at this point in time and possibly for the entire game.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 20 2010 19:43 GMT
#246
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 00:47 GMT
#282
On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
LSB's admission is only icing on the cake
@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy?

Show nested quote +
On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr


This makes me confident in my earlier read
he is appealing to pyrr's authority.
Scummy, scummy, scummy.

@meeple: I find it funny you ask me to justify my vote when I voted SR on fluff, then make a secondary reason as for voting being fluff yourself. I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam.... if that was the case, I would have been putting a second vote on Pyrr's team. I didn't. I'm voting SR because I am unsure if Pyrr actually made a slip. The way SR is acting now, though, in the above post, makes me believe that my initial reaction to who I'm voting is actually wrong. I needed to stack on pyrr because his team is way more important as I'm feeling both SR's team #2 with bumatlarge and divinek are scum with Pyrrhuloxia's team #1. My reasoning and justification are how SR is acting towards pyrrhuloxia.

I will also give justification in relation to why we should lynch vs a no lynch day 1. I am not saying "let's not ever no lynch", but that we could use it day 2 if we don't lynch scum day 1.

day 1 lynching scum:

6 v 1
night kill
day 2 5v1 <- possible win here
mislynch + night kill
day 3 3v1 (mylo) <- obvious no lynch unless 100% certainty
night kill
day 4 2v1 (LYLO)

if we DON'T mislynch now, and no lynch later, we can save it for a MyLo potentially.
That's why we need to take a chance on lynching scum today.

this is assuming we fuck up later, but we rocked on day 1. I'm not even really worried about this is Pyrrhuloxia's team #1 flip scum, which I expect them to do based upon SouthRawrEa being a newer player who is a dead giveaway. Though I am more sure of SR based upon his posting, AtA, and my not liking bumatlarge's posting earlier, I feel like they implicate team #1 through SR, and there being a vote on a slot that I find scum is enough for me to want to wagon said slot.

##unvote: pyrrhuloxia/LSB
##vote: SR, bumatlarge, and divinek


You're just being ridiculous here. What sort of authority are you talking about and how on earth am I appealing to it? I'm just pointing out that the majority of the posts here don't really have content anyways.

About your reasoning for saving our NL, here is what happens if we NL now.
Day 1 NL
6v2
Night kill
Day 2 lynching scum (I'm going to say that we lynch scum here because there is a slightly higher chance of lynching scum on day 2 than there is on day 1)
5v1
nightkill
Day 3
4v1 (possible win)
mislynch+night kill
Day 4
2v1 (lylo)

No real difference.
Your explanation doesn't really help. The two scenarios both have the game going for 4 days and I do believe that we will fuck up the day 1 lynch if we end up going through with it. It has the largest margin of error of any of the days until we manage to lynch our first scum. There was a reason I made my earlier post. There really is no benefit to either. It all depends on how the town feels about the scumminess of the teams.

Finally,
On September 20 2010 15:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
lol wow I just caught up and that SR post is retarded.

Well a couple of things I saw. Foolishness Medic lists are useful because of the psychological implications of it. Will a medic follow it, will a medic protect themselves, etc. I am really wondering if a medic protects an ENTIRE team or just one of the individuals on it, that will definitely show how strong a medic is. Since this is basically everything x2 I would assume most roles are the same and have entire team implications. IE: DT check effects both members of a team (since no reason it shouldn't) therefore a medic protection should cover an entire team.

Although if that is the case, I sincerely doubt medics can protect themselves. It will be really OP if a medic could just hoard protections on themselves all game since the mafia couldn't possibly kill them. On the other hand if they can only protect half a person they are a useless role. So medics either suck, are OP or aren't in the game. I'd lean towards not being in this set up especially since Korynne remained vague on the answer. I assume the logic is the same as when one of the mafia games had 6 variations of detectives but only 4 were authentic. The point in that was to add more to think about and take into consideration, but in reality it wasn't practical at all because it would break the game.

On that note, I will just go with my team mate and vote for Rasta/Foolishness for picking at incognitos post and ignoring the validity of medic protection list (even though I think medics probably aren't in this game, or at LEAST can't protect themselves)

To summarize because I like Incognito's idea about that.

1. For the moment I am leading towards foolishness/Rasta just because we have nothing better to go on.
2. Really doubt there is a medic role since it seems like it would be really OP, or really shitty depending on how Korynne decided to balance it, and her unwillingness to clarify in thread makes me think its not important.
3. Vote for Foolishness/Rasta just to make it clear.

Its day one though, so I reserve my right to completely change my mind for little to no reason :D


Alright so: That is an incredibly scummy statement if I've ever seen one. (see bolded) This is a really poor justification for voting someone. That early in the game, of course there is nothing to go on. As your teammate had said, we must focus on behavior analysis. However, you seem to agree with his inital vote and then completely ignore the parts of his posts concerning the tactics we should use for the afore-mentioned behaviour analysis. Also, concerning the parts of your post about the medic list, the WIFOM exists regardless of whether or not the medic list is there. In fact, it's general rule of thumb to trust the medic to do his job properly by protecting the person in the most danger of getting NKed. The part about the medic being or not being OP is not even worth reading. Before you criticize my post, look to your own.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 00:48 GMT
#283
On September 21 2010 09:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
LSB's admission is only icing on the cake
@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy?

On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr


This makes me confident in my earlier read
he is appealing to pyrr's authority.
Scummy, scummy, scummy.


To answer SR: I just thought that the fact there was no easy confirmation plan on Day 1 was rather self-explanatory but thank you for posting.


Well as I predicted, some people don't seem to think so.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 01:27 GMT
#287
I haven't said that plans are bad, just that I'm pretty sure that you really can't come up with a plan in this setup.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 02:07 GMT
#291
On September 21 2010 10:36 LSB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2010 10:27 SouthRawrea wrote:
I haven't said that plans are bad, just that I'm pretty sure that you really can't come up with a plan in this setup.

What do you think about Bum's Medic idea?


Bum's medic idea? Other than the fact that mafia might risk claiming medic, I just don't think it's necessary to have a confirmed unless we are about to lynch him or we're further into the game. It's good for day 2 IMO. All it does on day 1 though is lessen the chances that medic will successfully be able to protect someone because they're supposedly going to RNG.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 12:19 GMT
#331
I'd rather not jump on a bandwagon at this point and have at least one of the two members of Team 1 post as they haven't had a chance yet. There's only been a 2 hour window since the pressure has been put onto them and I'd like to hear what they have to say first.


On September 21 2010 10:21 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I do think that Divinek and South Rawrea are both weirdly defensive, but BM's idea for the medic was really good. I didn't realize Divinek was also on Team 2 when we talked about him.

I guess I'll have to see what SR says about that plan since he has seemed to hold steadfast that plans are bad.


In this type of setup, all townies are important because we as town cannot afford to make many mislynches. There were a couple accusations flying around so I felt the need to squash them. Simple.

Also, my opinion on the plan is a couple posts below your post. I think BrownBear is of the same accord so I'm pretty sure I didn't make any logical errors in my reply.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 20:05 GMT
#348
On September 21 2010 22:44 YellowInk wrote:
]As has been previously stated, it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents. On this premise alone, the default correct action is to hang.
You make a logical jump here without proper explanation. Just because we're scumhunting, it doesn't mean we should lynch.
We cannot expect to make any significant informational gains from day 1 to day 2.
Well if all we are doing is scumhunting, we can't expect to make any significant informational gains on any day. Your statement only applies to cop reports.
The only hard and useful information we could gain is if a blue takes a successful action and conveys this information to the town in a convincing fashion.
Not on day 1 though so I don't quite see what you're saying here.
This assumes both that the blue exists and that the blue takes the successful action. Otherwise, the only knowledge we even get is who it is that the mafia choose to kill. This information is rarely useful in actually tracking down mafia since they will often simply choose a target because it is most ripe - one which they think is relatively unlikely to hang and relatively unlikely to be protected by a medic.
I'm not addressing this as this only regards the viability of blues' actions, not the time at which they take place

Consider as an alternative how useful it might be if we could extend day 1. Post analysis is the only way to track down scum in the beginning. The truth is that this carries on to day 2 in almost every game. As in almost any game of mafia, the town does not have the luxury of waiting until they feel super secure that team X is mafia. Unfortunately we do not have the option of extending day 1 to draw out more information, but we cannot choose to give up a lynch.

The purpose of a no lynch is for specific endgame situations. These have been outlined previously, but I will include them here for completeness. Suppose you have 3 town, 1 mafia, and no blues. Choosing no lynch here does not really hurt the town since if the town mislynches, the town loses, but on the no lynch you will be left with 2 town and 1 mafia.
Using our NL now leads to the same 2:1 scenario, skips the mylo but has the same amount of total in-game days.
Now add in to the mix that the town has a blue among their 3. In this case the no lynch is very town positive. There's a chance the medic could successfully protect or the DT could find the scum. This argument can be extended out to similar endgame situations a day earlier as well.
As you implicitly mentioned in paragraph 1, the only time a blue role is useful is in the end game which I agree with except for the fact that we do not know if there is a DT at all. Mafia could easily claim DT in the 2:1 situation. If the real DT is still alive by then, it becomes a 50/50 vote. (With there being a 50/50 chance of there being a DT, this is a 25% chance of winning.)


Consider also that medic saves sometimes buy us an extra day. If we use a no lynch early (giving up a kill to the mafia 'for free'), this is like the reverse of a medic save. If we end up with an even number in the endgame because we used a no lynch in the early game, we have gained nothing from our use of no lynch.
We still end up having the same number of days total with the same number of lynch chances in the case of a medic save.

Day 1 no lynch is very bad.



I did notice that there was something crucial that I missed now that I look over this. In a situation where we NL day 1 and there are no medic saves, we end up having 1 less lynch chance over the entire game.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 20:08 GMT
#350
Oops I meant to bold the very last part and finish my train of though. All other scenarios are quite even but in the situation where we get no medic saves and choose to NL on day 1, we miss out on 1 potential lynch even though we survive for an equal amount of days. We have a maximum of 3 lynches in any scenario except no save + no lynch in which we have only 2. (This is of course assuming that our medic isn't a godly one.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 20:21 GMT
#351
[image loading]


This should help a little.
Sorry for double post, just made the chart.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 20:28 GMT
#352
My head asplode. Forget what I said, it's all nonsense.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 21:42 GMT
#371
Wow okay so after that brain meltdown I just had, I figure I'm just going to find the best group to put my vote on as small as my 1/3 vote is haha. I'm not really going to try and think the whole thing about the days and NLes over anymore because I think everyone's got it.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 21 2010 23:56 GMT
#385
Whew.. sorry was out longer than I thought I'd be. I'm trying to meet the deadline atm. I'm assuming it's 10 minutes from now and I'm too bothered to check so. I'm going to vote team 1 for the sole reason that the transition between his pressure on our team to a medic plan that's only viable on day 2 has been bothering me. Also him saying that he was "pretty certain that team 2 is mafia" is unnerving to say the least considering that there was absolutely jack squat to back that up.
##Vote Team 1
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 23 2010 01:29 GMT
#433
On September 23 2010 09:51 LSB wrote:
Response to Incogs post

My Mentality:
+ Show Spoiler +
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
You now are relying on the fact that I haven't taken any positions?
What positions are you accusing me of not taking on?
Planning: You claim that I haven't made a plan. Therefore I am Mafia. Thats just silly. I'm not feel like I should. Because I think there're towngoing to make a plan unless I think of one.
Ace/BM is scumYou said that I didn't give enough input into the Ace/BM lynch. Well, I don't
Rastaban/Foolishness is scum: You said that I didn't give enough input into the Rastaban/Foolishness lynch. Well, I don't feel like I should.

So you expect me to 1) Pull out plans or die, or 2) Accuse random people. <sarcasm>Sounds townie to me </sarcasm>


You are setting up a straw man here. Your "positions" are not meaningful. I am not accusing you for your lack of planning per se, but your lack of pro-town mindset. Your posts show apathy. Your posts say "hi I'm contributing" even though its clear you're not. You don't want to say anything about the Ace/BM lynch because you think they're town? Why didn't you say that? All you said was "Ace/BM: This isn't a real accusation. More like Bill Murray Foe on Sight". Sorry, but I don't read "I think they're town" into that statement. You don't want to say anything about Foolishness/Rasta? Why? Instead of saying "these lynches are stupid", a townsperson would be trying to create discussion. In your case, you are just trying to kill it.


So I should have tried to get BM lynched?

Sorry, I don't push dumb things.

He means that you're not really saying anything meaningful in your post. To be pro-town, you have to give reasons for why you say that it's not a real accusation.

Wrong again. I don't expect you to do either of those necessarily. I expect you to be pro-town and generate content, stimulate discussion, take a stand, and try to get the ball rolling. Trying to make plans fits into those categories. Sitting around doing nothing does not. Its not that "oh noes LSB isn't plan making thus he is mafia!", its that "LSB normally shows interest in moving the town forward and generating discussion, this game he's not, and thus he is mafia!". See the difference? Take interest in moving the town forward. You've done none of that this game unless under pressure. A lot of the day 1 accusations are baseless. We don't stop people from discussing them because we need stuff to talk about. Its fine if you try to cut off that discussion point, but only if you provide something else better.

Frankly you are saying that I should bandwagon and accuse random people.

I only accuse someone when I am absolutely sure.
I was formulating an accusation, but people wanted it too early. As you can see, I ended up junking my accusations due to Bum's posts

To play mafia, you have to apply pressure on to people in order to get reactions especially when the game relies heavily on scumhunting. This game is a prime example in which pressuring is good for info.


Show nested quote +
On September 22 2010 08:20 LSB wrote:
I would have liked more time to see what Bum would do, and how SR would play this game. But like you said, people wanted me to post. So I did, and I said that I didn't really think that they were mafia since new posts didn't fit with my general theory.


No, you posted that you were certain Team 2 was mafia after I accused you. You may have honestly been waiting to see what Bum would do, but I can't prove that. Context tells me that its more plausible you just pulled that out of a hat to divert attention from yourself. I don't think any straight thinking townie is going to take your accusation at face value at this point.

If you really want to look pro-town, start doing some straight up analysis. It has to be good analysis too. It has to be so good, that I'd rather lynch your target over you.

Yeah, and once I start doing straight up analysis, your going to accuse me of taking your bait and being scum. Your going to call this your 'trap'. Good thing I put in this paragraph.

Regardless of whether you do it now or not, you weren't doing it before. This is just an excuse to be lazy and not do analysis from this point forward. The real question is, why weren't you doing analysis before this? (BTW analysis isn't the only way to contribute. You can have well-formulated rebuttals, plans etc)

Sure I’ll post analysis once I figure out something. But it’s not going to be because I’m trying to appease you. It’s because I’m going to try to take down the mafia.
You can never actually figure something out in mafia based on someone's behaviour. You can have a theory at best.


This was a poor attempt at a defense or just defense of poor play.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 23 2010 01:34 GMT
#435
EBWOP: Open up the spoiler and read red text to see my comments haha.. the post looks kinda misleading.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 23 2010 12:01 GMT
#450
On September 23 2010 12:10 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
@ this whole LSB vs. Incognito thing
Incog and SR seem to be locked in on LSB because he is supposedly too passive. He's not close to the most passive person here. BrownBear hasn't done much except advocate a no lynch. More importantly, BC hasn't done shit.

I don't believe BC has an "I don't care mode." I see his name pop up on MSN often enough. I called him out for his placeholder vote on Foolishness and he didn't ever come back around to move it. RoL, is of course active this game, but that's even weirder than an inactive BC.

vote team 6


Nah it has nothing to do with being passive. He comes out with a strong accusation against my team and then fails to followup or explain himself properly.

I'm having quite a dilemna right now because I know very well that it's obviously considered anti-town behaviour to not post much at all and so I'm looking to the inactive teams. The problem I have is that I can't shake the feeling that the mafia may be an active team as well. I've got to go for now but I'm going to look over Team 6 when I get back from school.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 23 2010 19:59 GMT
#458
On September 24 2010 03:57 meeple wrote:

Show nested quote +
On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:

@meeple: I also dislike you speculating that I was 100% pyrr/SR are the scumteam....


States that SR is a new player and a scum giveaway and they implicate team 1.

I'm going to assume that you mean that he said that I was an obvious scum rather than someone who revealed scum easily. If I'm making any wrong assumptions excuse me but, shouldn't you read the post before you quote it?

Conclusions:
I think we should examine some of the players that bandwagoned on Team 1... especially Team 2 since we know BM had some serious concerns about them.


Just a couple things here before I actually go look team 7 because of this:

On September 24 2010 03:15 YellowInk wrote:
##Vote Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD

Review their posts to see their contributions. It won't take you long.


What on earth? That is the worst attempt I've seen at redirecting suspicion.

I also have an idea about a different mafia team but I'm going to see if I can make good connections first.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 24 2010 00:39 GMT
#470
Why do people seem to think that dead people have all the answers? Just because they thought a certain person was mafia before they had passed away, it doesn't mean that they wouldn't have changed their mind or that they had a good reason.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 24 2010 12:13 GMT
#488
Yellowink

Initially in this game, Yellowink was concentrating quite heavily upon having Bill Murray prove himself to the town as he was of the accord that we should consider doing a policy lynch. This in general was a horrible idea for this game as we simply did NOT have the townies to be wasting our available lynches. I'm not quite sure if he was aware of the type of game it was at this point in time but regardless of any possible ulterior motives, this is a good chunk of his whopping total of 11 posts.


On September 21 2010 06:41 YellowInk wrote:
So there has been some good discussion occurring. As is typical, there are plenty of flaws in arguments. The key here is to figure out where people are trying to be productive (granted, a difficult task on day 1) and where people are trying to look like they're being productive or otherwise staying out of the line of fire.

I am satisfied with Incognito's further discussions.

I would like to hear more from BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD. BC has not had much to say, and I don't feel RoL has contributed very effectively.


What I find wrong with this post is that he avoids pointing out these so-called flaws and then assumes a position of authority where he is "SATISIFED" with Incognito and wants more posts from some other players. That's just the way it reads at least. The only problem I find as is common in scum behaviour is that they don't quite practice what they preach.


On September 21 2010 13:39 YellowInk wrote:
Alright. I'm pretty convinced. The short version: No lynch is bad. This team's posting has been either unproductive or supporting anti-town ideals.

##Vote: Team 6, BloodyC0bbler and RebirthOfLeGenD

Current thoughts on blues: If I were a medic, I'd probably cover either myself, team 4, or team 8. Not sure who I'd poke at if I were a DT yet.


Immediately in this game, he attempts a lynch at Team 6, perhaps hoping for a bandwagon. It's quite annoying however how he gives us a super short version of his reason labelled "The short version" and avoids giving a long version and begins using flowery, unexplained terms such as town ideals to make himself look pro-town.

On September 21 2010 22:44 YellowInk wrote:
So I am presented here with a problem.

I still find it more likely that Team 6 is mafia than Team 1, though I agree with what most people have had to say about Team 1. After my last post, it was my intention to go into greater detail about why I believe what I do about Team 6 after a few hours and got some reactions.

However, it is far more important that a lynch occurs that I would be 'ok' with than a no lynch than to potentially divide the town among targets and allow a no lynch to occur. Therefore:
##Unvote Team 6
##Vote Team 1, LSB and Pyrrhuloxia


With respect to RebirthOfLeGenD's amazing rebuttal, here is why no lynch is bad.
+ Show Spoiler +
As has been previously stated, it is critical to scum hunt, not protect innocents. On this premise alone, the default correct action is to hang. We cannot expect to make any significant informational gains from day 1 to day 2. The only hard and useful information we could gain is if a blue takes a successful action and conveys this information to the town in a convincing fashion. This assumes both that the blue exists and that the blue takes the successful action. Otherwise, the only knowledge we even get is who it is that the mafia choose to kill. This information is rarely useful in actually tracking down mafia since they will often simply choose a target because it is most ripe - one which they think is relatively unlikely to hang and relatively unlikely to be protected by a medic.

Consider as an alternative how useful it might be if we could extend day 1. Post analysis is the only way to track down scum in the beginning. The truth is that this carries on to day 2 in almost every game. As in almost any game of mafia, the town does not have the luxury of waiting until they feel super secure that team X is mafia. Unfortunately we do not have the option of extending day 1 to draw out more information, but we cannot choose to give up a lynch.

The purpose of a no lynch is for specific endgame situations. These have been outlined previously, but I will include them here for completeness. Suppose you have 3 town, 1 mafia, and no blues. Choosing no lynch here does not really hurt the town since if the town mislynches, the town loses, but on the no lynch you will be left with 2 town and 1 mafia. Now add in to the mix that the town has a blue among their 3. In this case the no lynch is very town positive. There's a chance the medic could successfully protect or the DT could find the scum. This argument can be extended out to similar endgame situations a day earlier as well.

Consider also that medic saves sometimes buy us an extra day. If we use a no lynch early (giving up a kill to the mafia 'for free'), this is like the reverse of a medic save. If we end up with an even number in the endgame because we used a no lynch in the early game, we have gained nothing from our use of no lynch.

Day 1 no lynch is very bad.


Okay there are two ways of looking at this post: 1) He is making a bandwagon. 2) He is being consistant with his Day 1 lynch argument. The only thing that really makes option one a more likely candidate is the way he says he agrees with people about team 1 but avoids actually saying anything other than the fact that he finds them suspicious.

Finally, he comes back in day 2 and starts voting team 6 again with no explanations and tells us to look to them. Yes, I've been reading there posts but there are other suspicious people as well.

After going through this, I'm unsure of team 7's actual alignment because all YellowInk has been posting about is that Team 6 is mafia and stuff about the fact we should lynch on day 1. The thing that concerns me though is that he never really explains why team 6 is mafia. He just displays a constant routine of voting for them early in the day and giving a 1 line explanation to explain why.

So obvious mafia or unhelpful townie? Either way, I'm going to humour him and look into Team 6 deeply (I got sidetracked a whole bunch today and yesterday) and see just what he's accusing them of.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 24 2010 20:08 GMT
#499
On September 25 2010 04:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I like this analysis. I feel like its where I was aiming with mine but I did it a lot more sloppy because I did it at 5am T_T


Yeah I woke up at 7:30 and did this before I headed off to school. I half-expected there to be mistakes because I kinda rushed it. I'm actually going to go through a whole re-read instead of just team 6's posts. I've got time to spare before I have to go somewhere and I'm not willing to trust the vibes I'm getting from people just yet.

On September 25 2010 04:41 YellowInk wrote:
The problem with the vote on my team is that the logic is fundamentally flawed. Very similar arguments point much more heavily at T1. It would make much more sense to hang T1 then give T7 a much harder look should they flip red.
I could continue my point about how you should elaborate about such things especially since you find this so important but I'll let that slide for now just because it's getting much too repetitive for my liking so I'm going to ignore this claim.

Should we hang, we will come up vanilla town. There will be little information gained since the arguments are backwards.

It really makes me wonder what is going on in Incog's head. He struck me with a town vibe mid to late day 1, but then presented the backwards argument to hang T7 before T1 on day 2. This just doesn't make sense to me. It makes sense to me if T1 and T8 are mafia. Then Pyrr can freely back me up on hanging T6 and defend me since either hang is good for them. Also in this case it means T6 just sucks. Maybe BC didn't really have time to play, idk.
The second bit isn't quite important but Incog did say that you were mafia mid day 1. Now I'm not saying Incognito is to be trusted and he could very well be manipulating all of the town in which case he's doing extremely well but he's been posting very proactively and being pro-town. I have no idea where you got the idea that he struck you with a town vibe mid-late day 1.

I would also advise people to go back through every post that has attempted to accuse me (personally). Note how deeply my words and intent has been twisted in particular cases. This, in the end, is what puts me on the T1/8 track more than the T6/?? track.
Okay so what's the point of not posting any explicit information? Your posts are basically your opinions with no analysis of any sort to back them up. I'm not saying that your opinions are wrong but at least make an effort to show that they have some substance behind them.

Also note that this final switch back to T1 is putting my neck on the line since driving for a T6 kill would have been more likely to save me. I just hope that if we do hang that in future days the town will look and analyze for themselves rather than continue playing this super passive game. Better yet, hang T1 and we'll go from there.
[red] At first this seems okay but then you realize that if the mafia team was T7, T6 that his vote on T1 would make alot more sense if you consider a scenario where he's mafia.

##unvote
##Vote: Team 1, LSB and Pyrrhuloxia




Just as a response to this because I feel that it is partially aimed towards me, I put my comments in red. Now, enough getting distracted! I've gotta review the entire game up until this point.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 25 2010 01:20 GMT
#524
Okay, I've got a gut feeling that the reason why LSB laid that initial accusation on team 2 was because of Pyrrhuloxia's posts.

On September 21 2010 04:08 LSB wrote:
That's not a slip up. We are pretty certain that team 2 is mafia. I just want a few more posts from them.


The "we" in this post indicates that to me.

On September 21 2010 09:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I honestly don't know why LSB is suspicious of team 2. He said "we" were somehow almost certain that team 2 was mafia so maybe he has another partner I don't know about, given that I posted earlier in the thread to say SR was being SR.


They're obviously not communicating however through PMs because Pyrrhuloxia said this afterwards and so LSB must've misunderstood Pyrr and this is when LSB begins backing off. It seems to me that LSB was just trying to take Pyrr's lead and screwed up. In my personal opinion, this nullifies any arguments that LSB's pressure on team 2 was scummy behaviour. His defenses are also quite unusual for a mafia where he states his mentality at the time as a defense.

Just as an additional example you can see that LSB is taking Pyrr's lead in this game:

On September 24 2010 07:50 LSB wrote:
Um that’s not a defense. That’s a possible explanation. Pyrr explained it quite well


He agrees with his teammate and then refers to his explanation.

Finally although I dislike how they had defended themselves, they use separate methods of defending themselves which is also quite unusual for a mafia. LSB begins by stating misconceptions and Pyrrhuloxia attacks Incognito's reasoning. I find it odd for mafia to be so uncoordinated and I'd like to see our votes placed elsewhere. They have every reason in the world to work together as they're on the same team but you don't see that happening. I've noticed within my own team, there isn't as many PMs going around (maybe it's just to me D: ) and I find it very townie-like for them to post the way they do in relation to each other. In a normal mafia game, mafia wouldn't explicitly work together as they'd put suspicion on their partners but in this game as they're on the same team, that sort of barrier isn't there.

I'm going to see if the same sort of concept applies to team 7 and then choose who to vote from there.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 25 2010 02:07 GMT
#531
Is it just me or is it hard to keep track of days? I'm not sure if it's just for this game but I seem to be oblivious of when the next day is coming.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 25 2010 02:27 GMT
#533
Yeah I was about to try and squeeze another big post in or something and see if I could change the votes a bit but it ended quite abruptly.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 26 2010 20:27 GMT
#583
I've compiled some posts regarding the role of medic and the two teams that have claimed it.

RoL
He more than either of the other two players makes an effort (if he is medic) to act like he knows less about the medic. If he really was a medic, one would assume that he would know that you send in a PM to protect a certain team. There was also absolutely no need to ask the question if he was medic either as most people would assume that you simply protect a team as a whole. He goes on to make that logical conclusion however and answer his own question in the next sentence which means that this was most likely a deliberate post. He was intentionally asking the question to make himself seem like less of a medic. That'd be good medic behaviour. However if he was mafia, this information would slightly benefit him as he would know how effective his NKs would be. The question still needs not be asked though. I believe that there is a higher probability that this was an attempt to sway our opinion of him as a medic rather than find information as a mafia.
On September 20 2010 15:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Well a couple of things I saw. Foolishness Medic lists are useful because of the psychological implications of it. Will a medic follow it, will a medic protect themselves, etc. I am really wondering if a medic protects an ENTIRE team or just one of the individuals on it, that will definitely show how strong a medic is. Since this is basically everything x2 I would assume most roles are the same and have entire team implications. IE: DT check effects both members of a team (since no reason it shouldn't) therefore a medic protection should cover an entire team.


This next post is consistant with the fact that he didn't claim on day 2 even while under some minor pressure. He doesn't say anything concerning medics that may indicate his role after this.
On September 24 2010 18:29 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
alright to finish that thought, antitown shit follow by terrible idea for medic claiming for no reason.


Consistant with his behaviour but the sample available for medic behaviour is small anyhow.

Infun

Infundibulum is very unclear in this post about what his stance is but he goes on through the post and basically the only thing he says is that medic should claim if he saves anyone including himself. (Sorry I've been deleting what I've been saying here over and over because it's hard to say much about this post) I'm going to leave any conclusions for this post openended because his behaviour isn't quite definitive of anything just yet.
On September 22 2010 09:05 Infundibulum wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.

But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.

Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.

Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"


i dont know. it's kind of established at this point that a medic should protect himself. so if the mafia make a hit and it gets blocked, they can assume whoever they targeted was the medic. since the mafia obviously knows who they target, i think it makes sense for the medic to claim then.

i'm not sure what happens if a medic protects someone else and blocks a hit though.

just precursory thoughts are that if the medic makes a save, he should probably claim - i get the feeling mafia fakeclaims are potentially very powerful in this game


Infundi goes on to say that claiming medic by mafia first is risky as they don't know if there really is a medic or not. However there is only a 50% chance of there being a medic which results in a 25% chance of being lynched especially with the town holding the Incog/Infun team in high regard for their contributions. This allows them to out any medics or half-clear themselves and have a higher potential for getting the other team lynched. His reasoning here is moot and could be really interpreted either way. Granted, the argument looks town-like but he goes on to repeat it vigorously in his next post. LSB's argument against him wasn't very strong but the fact that Infundi keeps pushing this as his defense clearly shows that he's thought alot about how their behaviour would relate to the possibility that they've fake claimed medic. Upon seeing this, one can immediately see that it's not as town-like to do this and is much closer to a 50/50. As well, Incognito has been aggressive this game is contradictory to Infundibulum's claim that the two of them avoid doing risky things. Heavy aggression= risky if you're town or mafia. Town may go to lynch you if you're wrong and mafia just endangers themself.

On September 26 2010 15:18 Infundibulum wrote:
2. Mafia claiming medic first is really risky because they don't know whether there's a medic or not. In a LyLo situation, it's the town that's at risk and not the mafia. There's no reason for the mafia to suddenly stop playing it safe and go balls out unless they want to "win with style." neither Incog nor I is that kind of player (granted that's a bit of wifom, but if you've played any games with either of us you should know that).


Nothing really bothers me other than the last post where he is wrong about Incognito's behaviour this game but tries to use his behaviour as a defence and the fact that he says mafia claiming medic is risky but avoids providing the numbers which actually show otherwise.
Incognito

This post is quite peculiar to me as Incognito states that medics should protect the Vocal town teams. When you think of vocal team in this game who do you think of? Incognito of course. Clearly he was typing down what he was thinking at the moment and was not doing any sort of long term planning whether he was mafia or not. If he was truly medic, the only reason to post this would be for WIFOM purposes which is perfectly fine.

On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
With that said, time for some useful discussion. Unlike the TL Mafia game's I've played, this game doesn't have a Godfather. Therefore, DTs are that much more viable, especially in terms of checking QUIET scummy teams. Medics should be protecting VOCAL pro-town teams. This way, mafia is incentivized to take pot shots at the middle of the pool, as shooting the scummy players is obviously bad and helps narrow down the pool, and shooting active players risks running into medic protection. Mafia is also incentivized to be active because a) they can draw medic protection, b) they must avoid being targetted by DT checks. Mafia can't hide at the bottom because there is no GF or miller card to save them. There are also way to few players to be able to effectively hide from DT checks. The beauty is that even if DTs/medics don't exist, mafia must still play as if they do exist. So this strategy does not rely on the existence of blue roles.


Incognito has been very aggressive in this game which can be considered pro-town but is also pro-mafia in short games such as these.


All in all, I found RoL to be slightly medic-esque, Incognito to be aggressive which isn't necessarily pro-town in this setup and Infundibulum to be slightly non-medic-esque when you see his posts in relation to his partner.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and vote team 8. This was a horrible analysis by the way. I wasn't able to come to many conclusions but the few that I have come to have lead me to this vote. I believe Infundibulum slipped up. All these posts have to do with their behaviour as a potential medic rather than town vs mafia btw.
##Vote Team 8
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 27 2010 01:22 GMT
#592
On September 27 2010 09:46 Incognito wrote:
I'm not entirely sold on Team 2 being mafia. I've made many enemies this game, such as Team 1 and Team 7. And now Team 6. As it stands right now, Team 1/6 are voting for me in (almost) full force.

The Team 2 thing makes sense given they're also inactive in a game where mafia doesn't need to be active. However, I'm not sure Team 1's vote accusing is the be all end all because no lynch was the dominant option on day 1.

Really, if Team 2 is mafia, the game is already over. Its split between Team 6/8 2 teams and 2 teams. Team 2 is the deciding vote, so if they're mafia, why haven't they wagonned me yet?


Not my fault my teammates are lazy >.> and really I'm just voting you temporarily for now. I've mentioned that I managed to only find a bit of information about you two "medic" teams and I'm basically going to go over your actions again before the day is over and think about changing my vote.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 27 2010 01:35 GMT
#596
I really haven't been communicating with my teammates honestly haha. They're kinda just moseying along :/. I think they're just happy enough not to have any votes on them. I would've probably been PMing you and probably a couple other teams had it been not considered cheating.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 27 2010 01:58 GMT
#599
True true... I'ma hold out for now though.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 27 2010 12:16 GMT
#613
(Hopefully the day doesn't end by the time I come back so I still have time to reread and perhaps revote)
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 27 2010 22:47 GMT
#615
At this point in time the only other scenario I'm worried about other than Incog/Infun= mafia and RoL/BC= mafia is Foolishness and Rastaban + RoL BC = mafia in which case the three members not voting Incog/Infun could jump ship at the last moment. I have the ability to stop that however by switching my vote (Or Pyrr if he wishes). There's about a 25% chance from my viewpoint that this will occur as I obviously do not consider my team to be mafia. I've been thinking over the overall jist of the game so far and I don't think it would've been a wise play on Team 8's part to bus Team 1 during the early stages of the game if they were mafia partners even when considering WIFOM tactics. I was also convinced by Incognito's most recent post (That is before the recent vote switches) that Team 8-3 wasn't quite likely at this point in time either. Finally team 1/6 just seem to be the greatest of buttbuddies in these two consecutive posts. Pyrr has been saying that he believes team 8 to be more mafia like during this day and begins trying to push an attack on to us because my two teammates switched their two votes onto RoL/BC giving them a majority in votes. RoL basically criticizes them for the same thing. I don't know if anyone else senses it but I can sense desperation from Teams 1 and 6 at this point.

At this point my vote doesn't matter if it is true that Team 1/6 are mafia but I'm going to change my vote just for later game purposes.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 27 2010 22:47 GMT
#616
Derp I'm dumb

##Vote Team 6
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 28 2010 00:23 GMT
#618
Hey Pyrr care to explain after voting Team 8?
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 28 2010 00:26 GMT
#620
EBWOP
Hey Pyrr care to explain after voting team 8 and explaining why you think Team 6 is more innocent than Team 8?

It's not like my vote should sway you from unvoting Team 2 after changing your vote to us recently, (Hint hint I'm part of team 2) so why would you change your vote? It's not like you were planning on having us vote ourselves...
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 28 2010 00:36 GMT
#624
Lol @ accusing Team 2 of spreading out votes... Look what just happened!
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 28 2010 01:35 GMT
#633
YE YE! OHHHHHH SNAP
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 28 2010 19:58 GMT
#641
What's stopping mafia from NKing tonight and increasing their chances of winning tomorrow because we have no choice but to lynch? You're being too naive.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 28 2010 20:52 GMT
#643
True.. I wasn't quite thinking about the medic save afterwards . Thanks for clarifying.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 28 2010 23:33 GMT
#645
Except I actually wasn't... I was speculating that the mafia probably weren't going to shoot which turned out to be wrong. Stop trying to manipulate information.
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 29 2010 01:02 GMT
#650
Called it... CALLED IT
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 29 2010 01:15 GMT
#653
Aw wait damn. :/ GG either way.

##Vote Team 1
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
September 29 2010 13:20 GMT
#664
Including me? D:
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
October 01 2010 12:10 GMT
#700
I blame Divine and bumat >.>
SouthRawrea
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada608 Posts
October 04 2010 00:32 GMT
#737
Woot GG
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