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On July 23 2010 15:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2010 15:51 d3_crescentia wrote:On July 23 2010 15:36 SiNiquity wrote:On July 23 2010 15:27 d3_crescentia wrote:On July 23 2010 14:50 youngminii wrote:On July 23 2010 14:48 chaoser wrote:
I do however know that a Vigi hit SOMEONE tonight. That Vigi should claim since they are regular townie now and say who they hit and why. Mafia doesn't gain anything from them claiming, I think. Also, if it's a false claim, real Vigi can always claim as well and then we have a 1 v 1. Either way, one mafia is dying if they fake claim. I'm also going to go to sleep but I feel I have enough evidence to compile a case against someone by tomorrow morning There's no way of us knowing whether or not the claim is true or false. There may or may not be one or two Vigis and even then 2 scum can step up and counter claim. I actually disagree here. If 2 scum step up and counterclaim it exposes them in the open under public scrutiny. We can lynch the first claimant (the one who fired the shot) and see if he told the truth. Then we can have the other two shoot each other during the night with their vigi shots. If neither of them dies then we know they're both lying. Also, it seems like an incredibly BAD idea for a townie to claim vigi at all, period. What will be more likely is that the vigi will claim, no one will contest and the mafia will take out the vigi during the night to prevent any new information from being introduced into the game. If BC is lying, then there were only 2 hits last night. If there were only 2 hits last night, then no Vigilante fired a shot (unless Mafia stacked, but this seems highly unlikely). Therefore when we call for a Vigilante to claim, some Mafia could claim it worry-free, since no one else could claim it. Worse yet, this Mafia member that claimed could be Godfather and have picked the Vigilante role, so there's no way to know there either (or BC is GF under the guise of a Veteran). Thus both the claiming Vigilante and BC would need to be checked. If neither were Mafia, only then would we know for sure. We can't afford to check these people until the bomber is dead, at least by DT - because the Mafia would know we'd be checking them and then just get a two-fer. And by stepping forward it becomes difficult for the Medic to protect-confirm as the Mafia wouldn't want to target them anymore. It's possible to confirm them by lynching the vigi (depending on who he shot at and a few other factors). Then there won't be any mafia incentive to claim the vigi role. It's not the most optimal plan, so I'd really appreciate some input for a better alternative. As a general note as something I recommended yesterday. If a dt uses a rng to check someone where the rng in this case could be used twice, once for player once for day to use it. A dt could safely check you for surviving a hit day 2, and me day 3. IT gives the dt options to safely check without the fear of the bomber. The remaining medic should only claim to someone he protected once he knows for sure it was a mafia hit he blocked and not a vig one.
Mmm interesting. So even if the remaining medic did protect you, they shouldn't claim to you because [in theory] you could be Mafia protected from a Vigi hit.
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Also, the final note i will add is that BC never said a vigi hit him, only that he got hit and is still alive. That means it's all up to the vigi who is claiming to tell us who he hit and why. If he's lying then another vigi will claim. If he's not then no one else will. It doesn't matter if BC is lying or not. It's all about the Vigi claiming.
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actually scratch that last one, i feel like i'm on to something but it's jsut out of reach. will figure it out tomorrow
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On July 23 2010 15:52 SiNiquity wrote:
Right. But there's .. *double checks BM's post* 12 townies, 7 blues remaining. So the Vigi revealing gives the Mafia a 6/18 (33.33%) chance instead of 6/19 (31.58%) chance for hitting a "real blue."
But there's gotta be some other catch I'm missing. Or maybe I'm just wary of people roleclaiming in general which is why I'm getting that "vibe" from this plan.
Don't think there's any real reason why mafia would be operating by chance. I feel like they're just trying to snipe blues, or people that would be useful.
If the vigi reveals themselves + target, we can lynch them to confirm this information. Targeting Roffles or Jayme would reduce chances of BC being mafia since the mafia had no way of planning to put in one or two hits. One thing stands in the way of that, and that's BC's abilities to fake it.
If BC himself was targeted by the vigi, then simply by lynching the vigi we can make some clear conclusions about BC. I don't really see the mafia making a fake claim if they know we're going to do this, considering that a 1-1 trade for them isn't very good, though it is possible they'd do this. If the vigi really DID flip blue, then it's harder to say but I believe it would semi-confirm BC.
Am I making sense? I'm not sure I am. It's late.
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On July 23 2010 14:49 youngminii wrote:
Oh.
@BM: You forgot to cross out DTA, there's only 19/24 town aligned players left
thanks
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On July 23 2010 16:07 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2010 15:52 SiNiquity wrote:
Right. But there's .. *double checks BM's post* 12 townies, 7 blues remaining. So the Vigi revealing gives the Mafia a 6/18 (33.33%) chance instead of 6/19 (31.58%) chance for hitting a "real blue."
But there's gotta be some other catch I'm missing. Or maybe I'm just wary of people roleclaiming in general which is why I'm getting that "vibe" from this plan. Don't think there's any real reason why mafia would be operating by chance. I feel like they're just trying to snipe blues, or people that would be useful. If the vigi reveals themselves + target, we can lynch them to confirm this information. Targeting Roffles or Jayme would reduce chances of BC being mafia since the mafia had no way of planning to put in one or two hits. One thing stands in the way of that, and that's BC's abilities to fake it. If BC himself was targeted by the vigi, then simply by lynching the vigi we can make some clear conclusions about BC. I don't really see the mafia making a fake claim if they know we're going to do this, considering that a 1-1 trade for them isn't very good, though it is possible they'd do this. If the vigi really DID flip blue, then it's harder to say but I believe it would semi-confirm BC. Am I making sense? I'm not sure I am. It's late.
Yes and now after letting the vigi know you are going to lynch him lol, how do you propose in finding this vig?
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##vote Double Lynch
I feel like a lot more is getting figured out now with the development of BC claiming hit.
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On July 23 2010 15:32 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2010 15:29 SiNiquity wrote:
Hmm interesting. So BC is either a Veteran or was protected by the remaining medic (orr Medics can protect the night they're killed, and Roffles protected BC). Is that last one even possible? i would assume it is but this is a very important question. BM is that possible?
I allow people to carry out their actions prior to mafia hits, yes.
blue roles + infested terran
mafia kp
resolution
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On July 23 2010 16:11 Tricode wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2010 16:07 d3_crescentia wrote:On July 23 2010 15:52 SiNiquity wrote:
Right. But there's .. *double checks BM's post* 12 townies, 7 blues remaining. So the Vigi revealing gives the Mafia a 6/18 (33.33%) chance instead of 6/19 (31.58%) chance for hitting a "real blue."
But there's gotta be some other catch I'm missing. Or maybe I'm just wary of people roleclaiming in general which is why I'm getting that "vibe" from this plan. Don't think there's any real reason why mafia would be operating by chance. I feel like they're just trying to snipe blues, or people that would be useful. If the vigi reveals themselves + target, we can lynch them to confirm this information. Targeting Roffles or Jayme would reduce chances of BC being mafia since the mafia had no way of planning to put in one or two hits. One thing stands in the way of that, and that's BC's abilities to fake it. If BC himself was targeted by the vigi, then simply by lynching the vigi we can make some clear conclusions about BC. I don't really see the mafia making a fake claim if they know we're going to do this, considering that a 1-1 trade for them isn't very good, though it is possible they'd do this. If the vigi really DID flip blue, then it's harder to say but I believe it would semi-confirm BC. Am I making sense? I'm not sure I am. It's late. Yes and now after letting the vigi know you are going to lynch him lol, how do you propose in finding this vig?
*shrug* which is why I said it's not the best idea. Honestly it just relies on him recognizing that it would be better for the town to know 100% factual information than stay in the game. Obviously it'd be better if we could verify him some other way.
Key point to remember is that after the vigi took a shot there's no reason to hide it because he can't do anything anymore except provide the information on his shot.
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Vote Count:
1] Pyrrhuloxia (Misder)
1] zeks (pandain)
Abstain:
BrownBear
Siniquity
Pyrrhuloxia
Double Lynch:
Siniquity
BrownBear
Pyrrhuloxia
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Meh fine I guess, I will take one for the team.
I was the vig. I was aiming at BC
Reasons:
Who the fuck didn't see it coming from me?
Also to the med who protected BC. I hate you with a true passion.
When you guys do kill me to prove what I am saying, I will be honest, I tried reading this thread but it is hard with flame wars and ridiculous claims and finger pointing.
The person under most of my suspicion is youngminii. From comments he had in the beginning when he seemed afraid that BC was accusing him as being mafia (which BC wasn't). To attacking and finger pointing anyone he had a chance to do so at.
Everyone was scummy for what ever lame reason and he tried to push it hard until he could jump to the next person. He jumped a lot from what I can tell.
Now knowing all of you, you will probably say what I am saying is B.S. and just lynch me.
In which I don't care and go ahead to prove what ever crap you want to believe in. After that I hope you all play well and good luck you will all need it.
If for w/e reason i do live. I will contribute w/e and do w/e to help the town, but to be honest I can't really keep up with how much you guys post. Might be just because of personal issues or something i have going on.
Also everyone should listen to BC keep him alive as long as possible. I trust him and so should you.
You will get your proof of innocence after my death.
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wait what
that post doesn't even make sense
you aimed at BC but you don't want him to die? why the hell would you do that
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On July 23 2010 15:29 SiNiquity wrote:
Hmm interesting. So BC is either a Veteran or was protected by the remaining medic (orr Medics can protect the night they're killed, and Roffles protected BC). Is that last one even possible?
Medics can protect the night they die, at least in most games. If it was Roffles, we will never know. Hopefully though it was the other Medic...
There were three "hits" last night. Jayme and Roffles died, and BloodyC0bbler claims he took a hit.
Right now, there are a few cases:
- 1) Jayme and Roffles were hit by Mafia. BloodyC0bbler was hit by the Vigilante.
- 1a) BloodyC0bbler is a Veteran and lost his extra life to the Vigilante hit.
- 1b) BloodyC0bbler was protected by a Medic.
- 1b1) The Medic that protected BloodyC0bbler was Roffles.
- 1b2) The Medic that protected BloodyC0bbler was the other Medic (not Roffles).
- 1c) BloodyC0bbler is a Veteran and was protected by a Medic.
And the same follows if Jayme/Roffles were targeted by the Vigilante and BloodyC0bbler was hit by the Mafia.
However, BloodyC0bbler could be faking the hit, and he would only do that if he were Mafia. This is easily remediable if the Vigilante who fired the shot steps up and says who he shot. We can get a semi-confirm if we lynch that Vigilante, and it's even easier for us if more than one Vigilante claims.
There is no reason for the Vigilante not to step up at this point. Doing so is anti-town and denies us further information we so desperately need.
So where do we go from here?
Unfortunately, we still have not much from Day 2 to go for. We could test our two remaining lynch candidates, Subversion and Chaoser, or we could go even further and look at BrownBear, who dropped off the list early.
If 1a) is true, then we wasted our Veteran's extra life. The trick here is hoping that our Detectives checked him. There is a viable chance that BloodyC0bbler is Godfather since he is one of the "key" players in this Mafia game, but I can WiFOM a "why" or "why not" out of it. If a Detective checked him, it might be the time to speak out in the thread, or at least use his circle (if BloodyC0bbler is Godfather, then the Detective should have a mouth) or use his Night 1 Check to announce it. Actually, it's best if the Detective Mouth announces it, unless it was a Medic. If the mouth (mouth = result of Night 1 Check, again) is a Medic, then the Detective himself should step up, since the Medic can save him/her. Regardless, if a Detective checked BloodyC0bbler, we need you to step up and give the town some information. Staying quiet is NOT the answer anymore. If BloodyC0bbler was the Godfather, chances are he took the Townie role, since the number of roles is not undisclosed this game. If a Detective role checked and it came back blue, in my eyes that lessens the threat of Godfather-BC considerably. Less likely is the Veteran role, but once again we know there are only two real Veterans in the game.
If 1b1): We're out of luck here. If Roffles died, he can no longer confirm if he protected or not. At this point, we only have the other Medic. This is a bad scenario for us, since the town as an aggregate will not get much information. The only other person who knows if the other Medic, since he/she will not have protected BloodyC0bbler. And in the case of both protecting (unlikely) then the situation is easier. Return to my explanation of how Scenario 1A) should be dealt with, since we have no way of knowing if BloodyC0bbler is the Godfather or not. If we had no conclusive checks, refer to the solution for 1b2).
If 1b2): It is still risky for Medic to reveal himself/herself to BloodyC0bbler, but we might have to take a gamble of faith. Far better is it for the Vigilante to claim in thread, and the Vigilante and Medic find each other through PMs. This is our consolation prize here, since we will be able to start a town circle at least.
If Jayme/Roffles were hit by a Vigilante. In that case, we NEED the Vigilante to claim and explain himself. If this is the case, then BloodyC0bbler was hit by Mafia and therefore he is a confirmed townsperson, since Mafia cannot hit their own. The exception to this case is if BloodyC0bbler is faking, and the Mafia had targeted Roffles/Jayme and hits overlapped. In that case, generally the scenario is whoever sent in the kill order first gets the kill and if the Mafia get it in first, the Vigilante gets his kill refunded. It is not detailed in the Original Post, but other games I have read it follows as such. Another way these things are usually resolved is that the blue actions go out before Mafia actions do, and then Mafia have to repick. In that case, it's still relatively easy to catch BloodyC0bbler for lying since the Vigilante should either know his kill went through or told it was refunded. If we have a scenario where the Vigilante got his kill through, then either BloodyC0bbler was hit by Mafia or is lying. And if he is town, there is no point in lying.
TL;DR: There is no TL;DR. Town is in a bad situation right now and by skipping this informative post you will be helping the Mafia win. Please read it.
My thoughts on this: a weekend is coming up. This next day cycle will be played out mostly on Friday and Saturday. From the thread, we see that BloodyC0bber is playing mostly after work, but most people do not work on weekends. From past games, he is fully capable of stepping his own game up, and Mafia were afraid. Of course, it's just as likely that somebody is trying to be a hero (Never do this Vigilantes, since your Town-sided KP is very precious later in the game when numbers are too low for voting) and tried to kill BloodyC0bbler. From his posts, BloodyC0bbler is not anti-town; in fact he has made the most pro-town post that was unfortunately mostly ignored by the flaming and spamming. If you have not yet done so, go back and review this post.
Too much to think about right now, and I'm really tired. I have to entertain house guests this weekend, so my activity will be limited. As for now, good night folks.
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On July 23 2010 16:29 d3_crescentia wrote:
wait what
that post doesn't even make sense
you aimed at BC but you don't want him to die? why the hell would you do that
Ask fishball, hes done it to me once in the past.
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On July 23 2010 16:33 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2010 16:29 d3_crescentia wrote:
wait what
that post doesn't even make sense
you aimed at BC but you don't want him to die? why the hell would you do that Ask fishball, hes done it to me once in the past.
And I would of gotten away with it if it wasn't for that meddling medic! God way to ruin everything.
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Wow... uh... words cannot express how sad I am that my hour and some minutes spent writing that post just went to waste.
Still, read it anyway. I don't think Tricode is lying (though why would you target somebody you want to remain alive?) but just in case...
Good night town.
##Vote: Abstain
##Vote: Double Lynch
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On July 23 2010 16:38 Protactinium wrote:
Wow... uh... words cannot express how sad I am that my hour and some minutes spent writing that post just went to waste.
Still, read it anyway. I don't think Tricode is lying (though why would you target somebody you want to remain alive?) but just in case...
Good night town.
##Vote: Abstain
##Vote: Double Lynch
You are the only one who has figured me out this whole game.
Though I guess you don't know me, if you read my earlier posts I mention how I only join mafia games in hopes that one day I can kill BC.
Since now I used up my vig, that dream has to remain for another game. Now I am basically a green townie with the vig name.
So since I can't kill him might as well not be a true douche about it. What good would advocating his death and lying do? That would be beyond douchey of me if I did.
Either case, my dream failed.
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Vote Count:
1] Pyrrhuloxia (Misder)
1] zeks (pandain)
Abstain:
Siniquity
BrownBear
Pyrrhuloxia
Protactinium
Double Lynch:
Siniquity
BrownBear
Pyrrhuloxia
Protactinium
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On July 23 2010 16:35 Tricode wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2010 16:33 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On July 23 2010 16:29 d3_crescentia wrote:
wait what
that post doesn't even make sense
you aimed at BC but you don't want him to die? why the hell would you do that Ask fishball, hes done it to me once in the past. And I would of gotten away with it if it wasn't for that meddling medic! God way to ruin everything.
what the hell; these kinds of shenanigans are better reserved for Day 1 when it matters less
so this leads to a small problem where BC could still be mafia and have gotten protected - mafia cannot target their own so a medic protect would have never occurred, but since it DID occur and against a vig-hit it leaves BC's alignment still under question
as I said before if someone has a better plan of verifying Tricode/BC discuss away, because I don't want to lose townies we don't have to lose
bedtiem
p.s. tricode I wub you~
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woah, so confused.
so tricode tried to vig hit BC.
If a medic protects a mafia member does it work?
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EPT
