EPTif anyone else votes for me, they get capped, see?
TL Mafia XXVII - Page 4
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
if anyone else votes for me, they get capped, see? | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 14 2010 15:50 Chezinu wrote: Yeah, you better not mess with the Dvig! But what if there are two Dvigs.. too bad I can't pretend to be one.. ##Slap Chezinu Haha! What choo gonna do 'bout it pal? Be a good lil chez or i'll ##kill you | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
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AcrossFiveJulys
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seriously? | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
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Here's my PM conversation with L: + Show Spoiler + You're wrong, but generally on the right track. It does indeed have to do with the possibility of you lying about the roleblock if you flip red. That said, there doesn't seem to be a 'secret' watcher as far as I can tell. Since I'd rather not confirm roles that I rather don't want mafia to take a shot at, I'll just leave it at that. Also, tree.hugger hates me and would never give me pm information. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Ok, L: I've been thinking a lot about possible scenarios that would make me flipping red mean foolishness is red. Here's what I came up with: Foolishness PM'd you at the start of the game saying he was watcher and did not RC in the thread. He said he watched me and reported that Ludwig and MooCow are the only ones who visited me. You then thought this was strange because I claimed to have been role blocked. This leaves an interesting possibility: I'm mafia and coordinating with foolishness in an effort to get a detective lynched. Now, I want to say that that scenario is highly unlikely, because why would the mafia give away 2 of their members in exchange for 1 detective? The other thing I thought about was that tree.hugger PM'd you with his findings without posting them in the thread, but I wasn't able to construct any interesting scenarios on that case. Let me know your thoughts on this. Something very interesting is going on here. I realized something very important a couple hours ago that I'm going to sit on until I hear back from you regarding this. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Exactly how much thread based information have I ever kept secret? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: keeping information to yourself is often a bad thing, especially in a mass role claim game. if this is information you derived based off of private information (blue role, PM's, etc) then fine, keep it to yourself, but if this is something that somebody could come up with based on posts in the thread only, then you should be publicly voicing it. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Well, if you're going to assume everything I'm writing is sarcasm, then call me stupid... I'm not explaining shit because I quite frankly don't really need to give mafia additional information about how I came to that conclusion. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: You neither explained why you had that idea nor accepted my statement, what are you talking about? You're going to have to communicate more clearly. I read your last PM to me as sarcastic, was that not the way you meant it? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: For explaining why I had that idea? Or for accepting your statement? Either way, pretty hilarious reaction on your part. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: you are either mafia or very, very dumb / closeminded. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: This is not a good plan for the town, people. Indicated otherwise for me. But fair enough. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: No, I sent this in response to your post in the thread (a clue would be the fact I that referenced your most recent post?) I'm going to move our dialog to the thread. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Did you just send this to everyone? Because it looks like a standard spam pm used to get people to look at the thread. And no, flip red. I'm not saying anything more because frankly its pretty irrelevant unless you flip red. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Do you really think I'm mafia, or are you trying to get me lynched to get detective info? If it's the latter, I hope you've read my post: People, if you are just looking at the last page of the thread, vote for me ONLY if you think I'm suspicious as mafia, NOT if you think it's going to reduce detective uncertainty. If I get lyched and flip green, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are naiive or sane. If I get lynched and flip red, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are insane or naiive. So guess what? This doesn't help much; either way they could still both (or the 1) be naiive. The only way to know for sure the detective(s) sanity after that will be if the detective happens to get back a red role check and you lynch them. Banking on that happening soon isn't smart. This is not a good plan for the town, people. Anyway, I don't follow your reasoning for lynching foolishness if I were to flip red. Did you mean if I were to flip green? | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Let's go after an inactive. It should be ridiculously obvious at this point that I'm townie and a huge waste of a lynch (and I'm active and logically thinking through things, you don't want me gone). It should also be obvious that lynching me does not reveal enough information about the detectives sanities to be worth it. Aka, it's bad for the town to lynch me. I think we'd be well advised to look at who supported lynching me thus far (since L was not involved in my bandwagon directly, another mafioso was probably involved) in the future. For today, I propose we go after an inactive, since undoubtedly there is >= 1 mafia hiding in the inactives. Just to throw a name out, Vivi57 is both inactive and voted for me. I'm changing my vote to Vivi57. Please follow suit if you want the town to win | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 01:48 Radfield wrote: List of fairly inactive players: vivi57 redtooth RoL Ohn I say we go after RoL first. He strikes me as moderately scummy, and is the scummiest looking player who voted for Jspazz. On June 15 2010 02:00 meeple wrote: I'm down with RoL more than Vivi57... there's little/no case to be made for/against Vivi since he's so inactive. I'm fine with RoL too. I did an analysis on him a couple days ago: + Show Spoiler + RebirthOfLegend #232: promises activity #237: supports plan "for the same reasons radfield said". Disagrees, however, with blues lying to mask their roles (vets claim detective, etc) because it creates confusions and "is a big no." RC's townie. #240: more words saying blues shouldn't lie about their role. claims that L never once said to lie about your role when he indeed did (see page 13 of thread). #257: points finger at me for a mistake in one of my posts (for some reason I thought for a second that millers lynched flip vanlilla townie instead of miller) and says that's mafiaish, citing his previous game where he played mafia and didn't read the rules carefully. LOL's at so many greens role claiming (well no shit there are going to be excess greens... what are mafia going to claim, red?). #260: says the plan isn't that bad Summary: RoL has a strange post history. All of his non-useless posts are in the same time period. The only real things he's done are advocate the plan (actually, he advocated the imaginary plan where blues DO NOT lie about their roles, then ended up advocating the real one later anyway) and arouse suspicion about me. 3rd to vote for jspazz. He also didn't bother to defend himself after I voted for him on day1. My read on him is an accuse-happy townie who has bad reading comprehension and/or not been keeping up properly with the thread. I'm more suspicious of him now than I was back then. I mean, RoL just logged on once, posted for a couple hours in favor of L's plan, and never came back. Very strange. Same thing for ohN btw: he hasn't posted in quite awhile and had some questionable posts when he did post. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
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AcrossFiveJulys
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MooCow and Ludwig both roleclaimed detective and said they'd investigate me. Meeple said he'd flip a coin to watch ludwig or tree.hugger. tree.hugger did not say who he would be tracking. So why was I role blocked? My answer is that one of Meeple, ludwig, and moocow are actually the role blocker and feigned watching or investigating me by role blocking me (a tracker or watcher wouldn't be able to tell the difference). Further (though it's much weaker evidence), I PM'd L a fake theory I came up with about why he thought foolishness would flip red if I did, and L's response was that I was on the right track (that he didn't believe me I was roleblocked). I think this was an attempt to throw me off the trail and only think about cases where I was not role blocked. All of this makes me feel pretty confident that my theory is correct. The question is, which of Meeple, ludwig, moocow are the infiltrating mafioso? Let's look at Meeple: if he's mafia, he would be required to pretend to visit ludwig instead of tree.hugger, else he would be forced to reveal who visited tree.hugger which is bad for mafia (even if he came up with a story of 2 people visited him, the medic and mafioso). But, if he said he visited ludwig, then why was it necessary to fake doing so by role blocking me? My conclusion is that meeple is probably clean, although it's a convenient coincidence that he happened to not watch tree.hugger (if meeple really is clean, the mafia took a huge risk to hit tree hugger last night). That leaves me to believe that either ludwig or moocow is the infiltrating mafioso. The fact that having a veteran in this game is highly unlikely means that there should be no townie faking detective, and I also find it highly unlikely that there are 2 detectives in the game. My gut feeling is that ludwig is mafia due to his posting behavior, some PM exchanges I had with him, and the fact that he posted me as townie instead of town-aligned (which is all a role check comes back as in this game) which means he's not as familiar with his "role" as he should be. However, I am not certain. So how can we resolve this mess? We can resolve it through tonight's blue actions: MooCow and Ludwig each role check a different non-inactive (we'll need them to respond). Meeple watches whoever one of those is to be role checked. Obviously hatter/medic will not visit any of the people being role checked. Then, we will hear back about about our detective and watcher findings. Also, each of the people being role checked will say whether they got role blocked. If neither got role blocked, then we look at meeple's findings: if meeple saw that person get visited, then the detective who was supposed to check the other person is the mafioso and we lynch him. If meeple did not see that person get visited, then the detective who was supposed to check the person meeple was watching is the mafioso. If one of the people got role blocked, then again we look at meeple's findings: if meeple watched the person who claims to be roleblocked, we catch the mafioso. if meeple watched the other person, the detective who was supposed to watch the other person is the mafioso. Of course, we get the extra benefit of getting the role checks back, which will prove useful once we know which detective is the mafioso. I would like to note that this plan will fail hard for us if it turns out that none of the three I mentioned are mafia. However, if there is a mafioso in the blue group (seems likely due to evidence), this plan is guaranteed to catch him (with the worst case being meeple is the mafioso, and we end up losing a detective). Thoughts? | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 07:38 Vivi57 wrote: So I started to think about what a5j just posted. Combine that with the fact that L's claiming being discussed before he made the post would throw all sorts of timing tells off. It also makes perfect sense that a mafioso would claim blue early on to encourage more blues claiming in the future. So we know the first blue claimer is dead and was blue. The second is ludwig, a prime suspect. Then: He wants us to *PM* L our roles rather than posting them. If that doesn't set off a million red flags, I don't know what does. going to continue ludwig's analysis, but given that we only have a few hours before night, I'm posting this here now. Oh jesus christ I completely forgot he said that. I bet the mafia were banking on L being the godfather and "immune" from role checks and hoping he would be the blue circle leader. Let's not go overboard and lynch ludwig right now, but instead let's go ahead and lynch RoL and discuss the plan for night actions I proposed. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 07:52 Vivi57 wrote: [/blue]+ Show Spoiler + On June 12 2010 03:01 LuDwig- wrote: haahah quite easy to claim Detective when we are sending not claiming people to a corner .__. How to discover who is lying? The plan is quite easy! [blueTracker checks this night me or moocow. If one of us is lying tracker will knows that we have visited nobody during the night! So we will know for sure who is lying  MooCow...i suppose you have not problem following this plan right? BRILLIANT. They set up a scenario where they're guarenteed the tracker kill (noone double claims as tracker) and use the tracker to verify ludwig. Based on his other posting, I also doubt he could think of that plan by himself (or he could and he's just playing dumb). yeah, I'm not doing a good job of objectively reading ludwig, but he seems visibly upset when citizen hits L, criticizing the shot. But yeah, my vote is on ludwig for sure Hmmm, so ludwig role blocked me in case meeple watched me (even though meeple said he'd flip a coin between tree hugger and ludwig) or tree.hugger tracked ludwig and was saved by a medic? | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 08:13 Foolishness wrote: We got 2 hours until day is over. RoL is already dead unless something drastic happens, which it won't. So we might as well talk about what night actions are going on. First thing is obviously to coordinate DT checks. We might as well vote on it. ##vote Ohn for DT checks I'm leery of DT checking ohN because he may not respond to us asking him if he got roleblocked, which is very important information if you buy into the plan I proposed (even if we don't end up lynching ludwig or moocow, in the end the more information the better right?). | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 08:20 Foolishness wrote: Him not responding means he's of no use to the town, and even if he's town aligned he should die. Also confirming DT sanities out of it is even better for us. Obviously if you have someone better, give reasoning and vote. There's no reason not to unless you're mafia. Hmmm... ok, I'm fine with ohN as long as we have our less suspect detective (MooCow) rolecheck him and have Ludwig role check another (bit more active) person (call them person A). That way A will probably be the one to say they got role blocked, if anyone. And dude, it's time to stop accusing me of being mafia. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 08:29 MooCow wrote: I think we should go with my earlier plan of 2 DT's checking one target ( possibly Ohn ). Watcher/tracker follows up on us or the target to make sure everyone is telling the truth and we all reveal our information. No, that won't work. Think about it more carefully. If you or ludwig are the roleblocker, they can roleblock who they are supposed to be investigating and the watcher won't be able to tell the difference (and we don't have a tracker anymore). But with the new info we have ( AFJ and citizen MAYBE 100% town or someone we can REALLY trust) how about we PM our findings to them so we don't reveal it to the public and we'll continue from there? I don't see the point. With most information public at this point, we might as well keep it public. Everyone in the town should be involved in decisions since we have public blues. Of course, if anyone wants to talk to someone they trust as townie via PM, I'm always open. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 15 2010 08:43 MooCow wrote: What I mean is if we were going with my plan, both DT's get their information right and we PM it to a someone we trust so one or the other can't copy each other ( although there's only a 50% chance ). The PM'd person confirms that he has both the DT's results and goes public with it. The information will become public to everyone just not initially. Basically imo it's just an extra method to stop one or the other from claiming to find the same info ( only 50% chance though ) but still worth it and pretty easy to do. We can even PM 2 people ( AFJ and citizen ) you guys confirm it and then come out with the information to the public. Oh ok, that makes sense. It's actually a no-lose situation, since either of you would we were making it up. The right way to implement this plan would be as follows: both detectives and watcher PM both me and citi.zen with their results. Me and citi.zen will then communicate to make sure we got the same results and subsequently post them in the thread. If one of the detectives tries to frame one of us for lying, the other person can back him up. There are various other possibilities of people being mafia, but I think they will all work out in favor of the town. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
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