EPTThe question is which is more important for us right now:
Getting rid of lurking mafia just to reduce KP
or
Getting rid of active mafia that's screwing around with the town and still reduce KP
TL Mafia XXVI - Page 3
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The question is which is more important for us right now: Getting rid of lurking mafia just to reduce KP or Getting rid of active mafia that's screwing around with the town and still reduce KP | ||
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However I don't agree on doing this all the way to night X | ||
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On June 08 2010 00:07 pyr0ma5ta wrote: I recognize this point. I've already stated that I don't have a major problem with lynching Deuce this round. And yeah, don't bother using a pardon on him if it gets to that. But my point about why our blues get free passes, I'd like to ask the town at large. Why does everyone seem to trust YellowInk and Darth implicitly? Their posting has implied pro-town behaviour so far, but if things go downhill I assure you they will be the first on the chopping block. | ||
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AFJ's analysis on MooCow is pretty good I'd say...especially about the newbie card thing. I mean he's got 900~ posts surely he should know how to read an OP. And thanks to that we're seeing some abnormal behaviour on MooCow...personally I think he's starting to slip up a little now. Looking towards end game: I liked LD's analysis on the 4 types of players: 1. Active town 2. Active mafia 3. Inactive town 4. Inactive mafia (what is meant by active is the amount of posting) Obviously the biggest threat is the second group but that is also the hardest one to figure out. I think its safe to assume that mafia has a mix of active and inactive to make it harder for the town. Also, I would like to add that most of us have suggested to rolecheck the active players first - and I agree...the DTs should consider doing that again unless they really feel strongly about certain players/clues. Currently all the active posters are pretty much aligned - I don't see much strong finger pointing between the active people..maybe suggesting a clue here or there. So far everyones been targeting / analyzing the semi-active and inactive posters. Don't forget about all the active people; it's going to take more time to analyze them but the more posts someone makes the more likely he is to slip up. Note that the mafia are more aware of what they post than town - they have to be more cautious/defensive in their posting because of the threat of 1. Vigi 2. DT check 3. Lynch Whereas townies we typically have nothing to hide except the fact that most of us don't really want to get lynched. The more active we are creates a fog so that mafia are less likely to hit our blues. | ||
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1. Hasn't even stood up for himself. 2. The distribution of votes is ridiculously one sided and we still have (8 hours?) to go. 3. Fairly obvious theres a bandwagon going on. I don't remember anyone trying to really "save" Deuce from the lynch from the get go where the first couple of votes started to come in ... except for a brief moment we did have a tie with Gila and Deuce ... then everybody stacked on Deuce. If however he turns red (best case scenario): We should divert our attention to the bottom of the voting list for Deuce and the short Gila list. | ||
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On June 08 2010 07:09 YellowInk wrote: Alright, we're late in day 2 and I'm headed out for a few hours. I'm not sure if I'll be back before close of voting, but even if I am, I probably won't be able to influence it much anymore. So, some parting thoughts. I think that the info on MooCow is insufficient to hang him at this time. Hanging MooCow and finding him town will make a couple people look bad, but not so badly that we could justify hanging them for it. Turning MooCow up red will similarly not implicate anyone all that strongly. Compare this to DeuceGladlier. This is an inactive poster - a strike against him because if we allow posters like this to remain in the game, other posters who may be mafia (eg Hugoboss21, CompX, etc) will have no incentive to post. Deuce may turn up green, but by the very nature that so many people are against hanging this target I am inclined to believe him more likely to be red than when I first voted for him. If he does turn up red, it's going to look very poorly on some people - strongly enough that we may have a real case. Even if it were only randomly likely that Deuce was mafia, he's still the way to go. If we allow this game to be decided by random chance (which is what happens when noone posts), the mafia win the vast majority of games. How long do you suggest we keep this up for? Once we get rid of deuce is Hugo / CompX next? On the flip side, if all we get rid of are inactive posters, the mafia will just target our assets (active posters) since they know we'll just fuck ourselves over anyway. With that of course we can focus our medics on our active posters, but theres only so many people they can watch every night. We tried once with jiabung, if we fail today again with deuce we better be rethinking our strategy. Looking at night 2, mafia spread their hits pretty evenly. Assuming MTF got hit...the mafia must've came to a conclusion that the medics were going to protect the active posters (which is a good idea) thus they decided to hit 2 guys who were 99.9% not going to get protected (Elyas and barth) and tried to kill off some town lurkers who might've been blue. They tried to get lucky on MTF but failed. After night 2 we actually came out in fairly good shape. However for night 3 I'm thinking that we're not gonna get so lucky this time and contributer(s) are going down. If Deuce flips red: Pretty sure everyones going to look at the Gila list first, or who wasn't for this lynch - probably wondering if they tried to start a bandwagon, and the people who voted for Deuce last to check for bandwagoners. I'm very uncertain that Deuce will flip red because I think the mafia would do more than that to save a fellow teammate. Look how easily the votes stacked up. If Deuce flips green: We look at the people who started the "bandwagon". Unfortunately we won't be able to come to many conclusions because most of them are our leaders and active posters - and its rather easy to say "we were just unlucky thats all - let's try another inactive" and everyone would most likely dismiss it as an honest mistake. If we hang MooCow we'd have more information in the fact that he's talked more and theres actually stuff to analyze - plus his behaviour has been weird lately anyway. And it would also imply somewhat who's town and who's not. Am I for this lynch? Somewhat. Will I end up voting for him? Maybe. Will it matter? No. I can see the fact that an inactive poster is as good as dead anyway but its a shot in the dark. I can live with deuce dying today, but again, if he flips green, there better be no more of this crap happening with the day 3 lynch - we're getting rid of some real people. If he flips red you can say I told you so. | ||
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On June 08 2010 07:14 MooCow wrote: The stuff above answers the spoilered posts. Now what's confusing is the time at which you came back to call me out and the people that are voting for me, other than you are DCLXVI and Misder. Both are low posters and posted close to each other. Misder also posts 2 minute right after you saying almost the same thing. You accused LunarDestiny of doing the bandwagon thing and it seems like you're trying to create one right now. Are you trying to imply that DCLXVI, Misder, and AFJ are a mafia bandwagon? As for your timing window argument you think posting around the same time makes you mafia? I dont think the mafia are always all logged in at the same time to post simulateneously. Think about the risks we are running to vote for you. We are most likely going to be a small list of voters voting against you and in the case you turn green, we are all going to get blamed for it. Vig hits, future lynches, dt checks you name it. Besides the town wouldn't be missing too much of your finger pointing and "clue analysis" if you're dead. You're practically as confusing as deuce...and we'd get more out of you dead then deuce dead (whether you turn green or red - because you are definitely not a blue) | ||
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On June 08 2010 09:48 onihunter wrote: I'm still not convinced about MooCow. He's pretty active, and losing him would legitimately be a loss for us if he flips green. Deuce, on the other hand, is 100% useless and, whether he flips green or red, it's not BAD for us. If we kill MooCow, we're letting deuce live another day (WOOHOO!) and we lose a contributor if MooCow's green, which is more likely imo. So I'm keeping my vote on deuce. can you elaborate on how MooCow has contributed other than echoing / agreeing / piggybacking on other people's ideas? | ||
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On June 08 2010 10:36 DarthThienAn wrote: *big sigh* one bad option vs the other. Will I regret it if I switch ? lol. I don't really get how some of the people who vote for deuce think he's gonna flip green anyway .. if you think he's green then don't vote for him If it were upto me I'd rather lose MooCow as a green than deuce as a green. | ||
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 it would still be 11-10 for deucefucking deuce had to vote for himself .... looks like he actually managed to kill himself off the game | ||
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ofc i hope you choose the baller path and switch | ||
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