EPT*fixed
TL Mafia XXII
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On April 14 2010 13:55 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: oh shite ace is playing better, get your game face on On April 14 2010 13:55 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: oh shite ace is playing, better get your game face on ??! | ||
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First of all, theres a lot of people moaning that we should just lynch an inactive because we don't have enough information. These people should step it up. There is actually quite a bit of information out here to analyze. So instead of waiting for one of us to come up and hand you the information on a plate, please try to go through and look through posts organized by user. First off, innocents. A few people have caught my attention as very likely innocents. These people are: Zona BC d3_crescentia Caller All the people on this list have been posting rationally. (Ace would probably disagree with me on this about Caller, but from what I remember from Caller's previous games, he didn't post like this as mafia). Time to pull out the accusation gun. Osmoses: On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote: I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on? This is his first real post. He plays the I'm a newbie card, and proceeds to ask a question that is already being discussed. No contribution here. He also makes preemptive excuses for his posting, emphasizing that he is a newbie, but...you get the picture. Check out TL Mafia V for an example of Tricode pulling the same stunt. From experience, new pro-town players would not try to emphasize their newbiness, as it adds a burden for the town. On the other hand, new mafia players tend to use this to excuse their useless behavior. Panic usually sets in and they try to play the im confused card. On April 19 2010 05:58 Osmoses wrote: Assassins will influence politics, trying to gear lynches in their favor against the ones they suspect to be assassins... Basically they will be the very annoying players that you can't really pin as scum or townie because they have double agendas. They may just appear confused or stupid, I mean they'd have to cook up some pretty elaborate schemes to sway the votes in the favor of someone they want killed if that person doesn't act like scum. Its really pretty tiring trying to figure out who's what and who and why with such little information, and no clues -_- The only effect assassins have on the town is their votes and their influence, but lynching the right guy seems hard enough already, so if they do sway the vote we might just get a scum anyway... Should we really even be worrying about them? Their night kills, having only 2, will surely be spent on someone they truly believe to be an assassin, so as not to waste them, and the longer the game goes the closer the odds get to 50%. Those seems like good odds. More confusion. How ironic. Anyway...Ok...So its tiring trying to find out who is who...but you haven't said anything yet about what you HAVE found out. Oh you also say there's little information to go on? Yeah I'm sure its very tiring to look for information that's not there...in which case you might as well just have given up. Oops! Well, if you're so tired trying to information, surely you must have found at least something. Spit it out. We want to hear it. Anyway, thats the one person who stuck out in my mind. Everyone should be looking for information instead of lying around and complaining how there is no information. Some information is there. And some of it we have to bring out so we get more information. From experience, mafia games are usually more stagnant when theres no pms. You can't call people out as effectively as you can in pmland, partially because of spam, and partially because people don't feel inclined to respond when theres more than one accusation out there. So for now, I'm going to switch strategies and only try to focus on one suspect at a time. I expect responses. | ||
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Updated innocent list: Zona BC d3_crescentia Caller Bill Murray | ||
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On April 19 2010 14:23 Ace wrote: The fact that you guys are discussing people as "most likely innocent" just shows you have no clue wtf to do. Uh...then why didn't you say this previously when I did it in Red Army II? Is it because this time you don't agree with my list? Hmm?? | ||
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On April 19 2010 14:26 Ace wrote: I actually saw one intelligent post. But still you guys are useless. I'm just gonna chill until I die. Well, then would you mind explaining which post this is so we can generate some discussion and actually point us in an "intelligent" direction? | ||
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On April 19 2010 14:51 IntoTheWow wrote: Playing this without PMs sure is harder. Because its easy to ignore posts. Its harder to ignore pms. | ||
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@ Radfield: Hmm, interesting what you have to say about my analysis. Looking at that accusation of Zona/BC doesn't seem all that suspicious to me though. Actually that was one of the points that I thought was one of the less suspicious posts from Osmoses. If Osmoses truly is a newer player (I don't know if he's played in other games?) then his accusation of Zona/BC can't be taken so suspiciously. As I recall a number of other people were also suspicious of Zona or BC. Not both, but still something to think about. I still think the I'm a newb card is the most suspicious thing about this character. *Anyway, glad to see that he's posted a response.* About Bill Murray, Stuff suspicious is happening about Bill Murray. But I don't think that necessarily means he's mafia. After all, with all the horrible plans he comes up with, I'm sure the mafia would want to follow it in an attempt to look useful whether BM is mafia or not. Mafia like to follow sucky plans, regardless where they come from. Which I guess is brilliant on BM's part. I'd focus on BM's follower's behaviors to see their motives for now, as BC said, his behavior has brought up some shady responses. Either way, Rage, I don't think I completely understand your proposal. When I read it I thought you wanted to scrap all the conversation before day 2 as evidence...but that seems really bizzare and ridiculous to me. Did you mean to say something else? On April 20 2010 04:25 Bill Murray wrote: I'd also like to add that I get townie vibes from your entire list, crescentia. Ok wat? Yeah, I know you have a weird penchant for saying random stuff that doesnt make sense...but seriously how can you get town vibes from ppl like RoL? The rest I can understand, but I don't know how ANYONE can get a pro-town read from RoL. KF91 is going on my innocent list, which now reads: Zona BC d3_crescentia Caller Bill Murray KF91 For those of you looking for a justification, well, lets just say...I don't want to give the mafia any tips. Fairly certain he's pro-town though. Jugan. What I think of him has changed over the last few pages. Initially he was acting really abrasive with the mods, which put a sour taste in my mouth. Include the "I'm a miller" statements, and it could very well be a coverup for rolechecks. The difference between this one and BM's statements I think though, are the fact that Jugan says he's 100% miller, whereas Bill only says he's probably the miller, as i recall. Does anyone know if Jugan normally does this? Either way, its kind of an awkward statement to make. Originally, Jugan gave me some pretty suspicious vibes, but now I'm beginning to think he's fairly pro-town. He's not going on my list though. I'm definitely keeping an eye on you. For some reason I feel like you're just nit picking through IntoTheWow's posts and unfairly attacking him. RoL...hmm well I remember him actually using this same excuse before. Which I'm pretty sure was legit. I've never heard of jpak before, so that + being inactive gives him an edge in my view. *edit nvm Jugan seems to be legit to me. New updated Innocent list: Zona BC d3_crescentia Caller Bill Murray KF91 Jugan @ Osmoses: Hmm...well, I guess I can interpret that statement as a rhetorical "duh isn't this the obviously best course of action" statement, but I'm not sure how much I'm convinced. Looking at the rest of your argument, it seems...actually I'm not sure. Your logic seems to be somewhat reasonable for being a newer player. Looking back at my previous playstyle, I can see how you could think that. In response to your question, no, medics can also protect against vig hits and assassin hits. Anyway, this large post tells me that you are capable of being coherent. Keep it up, I'm going to be expecting more posts like this from you. On April 20 2010 06:11 Bill Murray wrote: I don't understand this at fucking all. When you are green you have big posts, and I had you written off as green, but your shift towards smaller posts is AWAY from your green meta and really had me thinking that you are red. Let's lynch KF91. Well, I don't find you annoying, but when you are green you tend to come out and actually accuse people instead of squirming and getting defensive with very short posts. When you are green you craft elaborate posts, and you are not doing that, so therefore you will flip scum when we lynch you. Wat lol. Ok, I've refrained from quoting and pointing out every single BM post until now. But this is really weird. Nothing outstandingly out of character, but you seem to be going overboard on the accusations my friend. Expect to be watched closely in the next few pages. Anyway this is taking too long. Posting this now, but more to come later. | ||
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On April 20 2010 06:23 Radfield wrote: Where did this Rage bandwagon come from!? Was his post really that suspicious? As far as I can tell, this post helps to focus the town down a road towards a lynch. Voting towards the "least active, most voted person" seems like a sound plan to get a lynch done. Perhaps you folks voting for Rage could elaborate a little more. I realize Caller's already posted a reason, but were that many people suddenly convinced? Caller's argument seemed a bit thin to me. Um actually yeah, if I read that correctly, I think it is pretty anti-town and warranting suspicion. Wanting to exclude all the pre-day 2 information is hugely ridiculous. If you don't think there's anything here to analyze, then something is wrong with you. This seems like an invitation to cover up information that the mafia doesn't want to be found. Wah wah wah what? Ace claims DT...then acts completely retardedly. Sad that I have only $25, but oh well. If I were not trying to play to win, I'd open a tax collection agency so I could get some more money, but...Wait! Ace is a genius. (Even more) to come. A few IMPORTANT notes: Everyone: Stop filling the thread with garbage. I am amazed that with 10 pages worth of mostly useless posts, I can only see two or three responses to my post, and only a few more reasonable attempts at being helpful. Jugan: Your attempts to appear helpful are abrasive and are probably turning people off. Right now, most of the posts are only helping the mafia. If we're actually come up with some decent course of action, the spam needs to stop NOW. + Show Spoiler + I'm going to refer to the info in this spoiler if anyone decides to accuse me of being a hypocrite when I make my next post. But I have reasons. 1. Being that it works for some people. | ||
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Welcome to Incognito's Tax collection agency! ![[image loading]](http://metrobrokers.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/tax-collector-stockxpertcom_id69728_jpg_9233c9b394a2324739c0ba6441fcaa64.jpg) ![[image loading]](http://www.bergoiata.org/fe/bestw2/USSR%20-%20Hammer%20&%20Sickle.JPG) Rules: 1. If you don't pay your taxes, you will be punished. I'm sure you all would love to keep all your fingers on your wonderfully productive typing hands. 2. If you survive the night, we come back the next day and collect more taxes from you! 3. If you try to pay less than your fair share, we will confiscate all your property and burn you at the stake. FAQ: Q. How do I pay my taxes? A. Make sure you post. Post substantively and frequently. Non-posters will be shot, and all their property will be confiscated and be used for state production. Q. What kind of taxes are there? A. The Liquidia Tax Collection Agency collects two taxes, A) The Cost of Living Tax, and B) The Lottery tax. Q. Can you explain the Cost of Living Tax? A. Sure thing. It works very simply. You pay tax on all of your earnings. The tax breakdown is like this. There is one marginal tax bracket, which is 100%. That's right! All of your earnings will go to the Liquidia Tax Collection Agency, which will ensure that your earnings are justly and fairly distributed among those who are in need. And by "in need", I mean, those who are actively participating to bring the mafia to justice. The faster we get rid of the insurgence, the quicker we can call off this "state of emergency" and get back to the freedom and liberty we all love (not going to happen). Q. How the **** do I calculate my earnings? A. You don't. We calculate them for you. Chances are, you have underestimated your tax burden. So just to be safe, make sure you keep posting actively and usefully. Q. So is there a lottery tax? A. Yes, there is a lottery tax. Every time you win Ace's lottery, you must pay 80% of your winnings to the Liquidia treasury fund. This fund will be used to help buy housing for poor people like BloodyC0bbler and will ensure that we all live long and healthy lives. In addition, 20% of your winnings must be paid to the Liquidia Reasearch Fund, which will fund research, enabling us to weed out the mafia quickly and effectively. Finally, the last 10% of your winnings must be paid to the Liquidia "Defense" Fund, which will be used to silence all those who blab on and cover up important information. The total amount of tax due should add up to 100%, if I can do math. Oh well, even if I don't, you can always count on the Liquidian Government to dole out justice and oppose all those who call themselves socialist! Let Freedom Ring!!! Q. Can I get a receipt to ensure that the Tax Collection Agency has received my payment? A. Nope! You just have to keep posting in blind faith that we have received your payment. We are not responsible for any failed transactions on your part. Q. Thank you! I really hope I can be a good comrade and contribute to the greatness of the Liquidian people! A. That wasn't a question, but ok... People who haven't payed their taxes: 1. ??? 2. ??? 3. ??? ... We are sorry, but it seems like we have lost all record of your transactions. Please re-enter your transactions, or send a check to the Liquidia Collection Agency. If you have any questions or grievances, please contact the People's Extermination And Criminal Justice Department for more details. | ||
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Lets see. Did anyone read my previous post? Im guessing no. Either way, if you haven't, read it. If you have, read it again. It shouldn't be that hard to get the message. But hopefully, such a large not-serious post got you all woken up so you can come to your senses. Anyway, a few loose ends from when I've last read up to... On April 20 2010 09:41 Jugan wrote: The point is that hobbes is an ungrateful donkey who turns on the people that stopped him from getting lynched. I replied to your post when you asked me to incognito, but you haven't readdressed your first analyses of Osmoses. (when you asked several players to reply) I noted that a few people have responded. One of which is you. Thank you for your reply. On April 20 2010 10:27 tree.hugger wrote: I'm laughing very very hard right now. Why because of Ace? Or are you an Assassin? On April 20 2010 11:01 madnessman wrote: Meh, I think this is worrying in that I doubt there are many assassins in this game. So if town+mafia end up accidentally killing all the assassins save one, I'm guessing that one assassin wins and game ends lol. Confirmed from flamewheel that the game does not end when an assassin wins. The remaining assassin is simply removed from the game. Automatic Archives SWEEET: BIG Thanks to Zona for that. Suspicious people: Well, right now there are a lot of suspicious people. But I'm going to switch tactics again. This time, I'm not going to say that you're suspicious. If you're suspicious, you know you are. I'm not going to sit here and make a list of the inactive people who should be looked at. That just gives you the option of ignoring me if you barely made it onto the list. So what we're going to do is this. You know if you're not doing your job. Step it up. If you choose not to do that, we just shoot you. If you're not going to bother stepping up your game now, don't expect us to believe you when you pop up tomorrow and try to defend yourself after we've accused you.. Defending yourself starts now. It starts with being active and posting pro-town. P.S. In the unlikely event that everyone complies and starts being useful, we still have some good candidates. Some that have been already mentioned. BUT we're going to go through the useless/shady people before we go through that list. Gotta have an incentive for posting, yes? | ||
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On April 20 2010 12:37 Foolishness wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2010 11:36 Incognito wrote: Hello, its your friendly neighborhood tax collector here! Don't worry, I'm not trying to suck you dry. I'm just trying to make sure you pay your fair share. Not like you care anyway, since your parents probably pay your taxes for you! Welcome to Incognito's Tax collection agency! Rules: 1. If you don't pay your taxes, you will be punished. I'm sure you all would love to keep all your fingers on your wonderfully productive typing hands. 2. If you survive the night, we come back the next day and collect more taxes from you! 3. If you try to pay less than your fair share, we will confiscate all your property and burn you at the stake. FAQ: Q. How do I pay my taxes? A. Make sure you post. Post substantively and frequently. Non-posters will be shot, and all their property will be confiscated and be used for state production. Q. What kind of taxes are there? A. The Liquidia Tax Collection Agency collects two taxes, A) The Cost of Living Tax, and B) The Lottery tax. Q. Can you explain the Cost of Living Tax? A. Sure thing. It works very simply. You pay tax on all of your earnings. The tax breakdown is like this. There is one marginal tax bracket, which is 100%. That's right! All of your earnings will go to the Liquidia Tax Collection Agency, which will ensure that your earnings are justly and fairly distributed among those who are in need. And by "in need", I mean, those who are actively participating to bring the mafia to justice. The faster we get rid of the insurgence, the quicker we can call off this "state of emergency" and get back to the freedom and liberty we all love (not going to happen). Q. How the **** do I calculate my earnings? A. You don't. We calculate them for you. Chances are, you have underestimated your tax burden. So just to be safe, make sure you keep posting actively and usefully. Q. So is there a lottery tax? A. Yes, there is a lottery tax. Every time you win Ace's lottery, you must pay 80% of your winnings to the Liquidia treasury fund. This fund will be used to help buy housing for poor people like BloodyC0bbler and will ensure that we all live long and healthy lives. In addition, 20% of your winnings must be paid to the Liquidia Reasearch Fund, which will fund research, enabling us to weed out the mafia quickly and effectively. Finally, the last 10% of your winnings must be paid to the Liquidia "Defense" Fund, which will be used to silence all those who blab on and cover up important information. The total amount of tax due should add up to 100%, if I can do math. Oh well, even if I don't, you can always count on the Liquidian Government to dole out justice and oppose all those who call themselves socialist! Let Freedom Ring!!! Q. Can I get a receipt to ensure that the Tax Collection Agency has received my payment? A. Nope! You just have to keep posting in blind faith that we have received your payment. We are not responsible for any failed transactions on your part. Q. Thank you! I really hope I can be a good comrade and contribute to the greatness of the Liquidian people! A. That wasn't a question, but ok... People who haven't payed their taxes: 1. ??? 2. ??? 3. ??? ... We are sorry, but it seems like we have lost all record of your transactions. Please re-enter your transactions, or send a check to the Liquidia Collection Agency. If you have any questions or grievances, please contact the People's Extermination And Criminal Justice Department for more details. You just posted some stuff saying to not fill the thread with garbage, and then you post this. Thanks for just telling me your role. But don't worry, the secret's safe with me, nobody pays attention to my posts until well into the 3rd or 4th day. Which reminds me how funny it is how people keep saying there's no information, and yet in reality there's a LOT going on in the first day. No matter, you keep to your spam posting for now. Good Job Foolishness. Good job reading the spoiler in the post here. I'm sure it won't be too hard for you to see what I'm trying to do here... | ||
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On April 21 2010 06:29 KF91 wrote: In a normal situation, a mafia (More the inexperienced mafia) that is being blamed would feel more nervous and therefore would post short, erratic posts trying to defend themselves. But what Rage has been doing is almost the complete opposite of that. His posts are composed well and I think that he defended himself correctly. What do you think about Osmoses? If I use your rule of thumb...it seems as if Osmoses would be likely innocent. However, I don't feel satisfied with the idea that Osmoses is innocent... On April 21 2010 06:29 KF91 wrote: Also Caller, the whole 3rd/4th to bandwagon theory. I'm not going to argue about the fact that it happens 75% of the time, but currently it looks like that's all the basis you have to be suspicious of people (Most recently, of meeple). Although his commentary on the lynch should be analysed more throughly with previous posts and posts to come, I don't think your points 1 and 2 should really play into a basis of suspicion. Shouldn't posting behaviour be considered more important than the order of votes casted for a lynch? Actually meeple is a fairly suspicious character imo. Let me go back through his archived posts and check. Ok, useless posts, followed by attacking BC's plan/idea. Not really pro-town, but not suspicious yet either. Oh noes. Next post he defends BC. Not sure how much we can read into this. But flip floppiness is kinda pro-mafia. Then he ignores BM, cool. Advocates anti day-3 double lynch policy. Ok, fine I guess this is a justifiable position. There are plenty of people who have advocated this position in the past. Regardless though, traditionally usually have a decent amount of information in our hands by day 3. Yet meeple arbitrarily assumes that we won't have enough info by day 3. On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote: I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then. Really? Well why don't you try to make generate this info then? Seriously info doesn't just pop out of nowhere into your hands. Seems to me like meeple has no intention of attempting to get information. He inherently assumes that not enough will be available. Oops! Also, another thing to note about meeple's posting is that if you look at all of meeple's posts as a whole, he is always reacting. He is always responding to what is going on immediately in front of him. Not going through or trying to analyze other players as a whole. Strike two! Well, before I write him off on that, meeple: start trying to dig up and analyze real information instead of just responding to what is immediately in front of you please.. Continuing, meeple finally decides to respond to the BM incident, complains about inactivity, and jokes around. Casually mentions a bandwagon (not certain if this is an anti-bandwagon stance, but I assume it is?), and then in the next post jumps onto the jpak wagon. Talk about hypocrisy. Next several posts are trash, and then he comes up with a medic list. Cool. It looks useful. Unfortunately, infundibulum already made one of those. He was probably ignored, but oh wells. At least meeple leaves Ace (Detective?) off the list, and adds some people to the list who aren't really worth mentioning. tree.hugger? Foolishness hasn't been useful, and hobbes is a big WUT? Why does meeple also ignore Zona and d3_crescentia from his list? Shady and poorly thought out list at best. Next he defends himself from Caller. And now he will have to defend himself from me. Better come out and explain yourself before I explain your situation for you (well, I already did). (Note to inactives, don't think that I'm going to give you the same treatment as meeple and let you defend yourselves. The difference here is that at least meeple is being active. He gets a few more bonus tolerance points on my list than you guys do). Oh also I'd like you to come out and explain your choices for your bizzare medic list. Ah yes JadeFist. As BM (and Radfield) have kindly pointed out, you can't change your vote to the losing or winning bandwagon. Seeing as you change your vote, don't post in the thread, and blatantly break the rules, you're have some serious business against you. Not only that, but you're already a shady character. Don't worry, I won't ask you to come out here and defend yourself. I might listen if someone else tries to come and defend you though. On April 21 2010 06:54 Radfield wrote: I've been reading through AcrossFiveJulys posting history, and to me it seems a bit suspect. It's nothing specific in particular, but does anyone else get the same vibe? Not on the top of my list, but yes. Even after a call for more posts from the non-voters, it seems like people still aren't motivated to post. Maybe I'm just not scary enough?  | ||
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KF91: If you really think you can post a satisfactory analysis of EVERY SINGLE PLAYER in the game even on day 3 when we've lost a few, then I don't know what you're thinking. Would probably be impossible even for a guy like Ver or Qatol. Pick the most suspicious people and work from there. You can't waste your time analyzing everyone. Alternatively...we can use this system. It'll be good for getting a quick and dirty analysis of everyone, and it will give everyone something specific to do. Not only that, but it will all help you improve your mafia hunting skills. So I propose that (after the day post goes up): we all analyze the player below us on the player signup list. Last person (madnessman) analyzes the first person, obviously. Ignore dead people (obviously). We should get out the analyses quickly, then we can go from there. Tips for analyzing players (in this case, the player under you): Use Zona's archive bot. Run through all the posts made by the player you're analyzing, and note any suspicious behavior. I have done my example of meeple, so you can check what I did there. Looking back I guess I should have consolidated and made my post more organized, but I was kinda doing a rough on-the-fly analysis there. When you're reading, try to create a persona around the player's attitude and goals. Is the player abrasive? Are they actually working to help the town or are they whining that there is no information? Do they have an agenda in mind? What do you think it is? Is the player content with sitting back and watching the action? You can use these questions to help you determine where people are going and what alignment they are. Anyway, in the hopes of not burdening everyone with a long laundry-list of tips, I'll just leave it at that for now. Don't worry if you think we'll rip apart your analysis. Don't be afraid about being wrong. Naturally, people will be wrong sometimes, you can't always be right. Gotta start somewhere, ya? | ||
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I was kinda wishing to die...especially since I won't be around tomorrow...I guess I posted too late. Oh well, I guess that's all the more reason we need to step it up since we've lost some of our glitter and glitz ya? Back to the grind... (Which means, you can now start posting your analysis of the next guy underneath you who isn't dead). | ||
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Love1Another: Has 3 in-game posts. Of which only 2 are really relevant. 1st relevant post: is an I'm confused post. But it doesn't say much else. No thought of trying to contribute, so that doesn't raise a big red flag. Although he is quick to say he isn't an assassin...probably means nothing, I'm guessing. 2nd relevant post: Wanting to be Jugan's friend. Cute. Not enough information to go on at this point, but it could be an "I like chaos and alienation! Keep doing it, its' helping our cause!" kind of post, but idk. Keeping with my promise to not let you guys just pop up at a convenient time just to defend yourself, I'll just keep this one in the back of my mind until we hear more from other people. Next! | ||
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On April 21 2010 10:13 Caller wrote: obvious blue snipers are obvious who's capable of blue sniping? Zona Ace BloodyCobbler (he's REALLY good at it) me Incognito This is just a "These people are widely respected so they must be good at blue sniping" statement. Zona - I've never seen him be red, so I don't know if he's good at blue sniping. Is awful quiet though... Ace...don't remember, but from what I can recall he sticks more to the logic/bashing ppl in the thread side rather than the blue sniping side. BC - the only game I remember him as mafia in was the Smurf game, in which I guess he did a good job at sniping key players (qatol and L). Of the 3 kills, one was a DT but the other two were green. 2 of them were good players though, and in a game where good players are hidden like blue roles, I guess that can be considered solid "blue" sniping skill. The tells for blues and high profile players trying to hide would be similar, yes? Caller - Mafia XVIII. Actually you guys hit a fair amount of blues (and reds). Don't know how much of that was your doing and how much of it was Foolishness(?) but it fits. Other games with you as mafia...Mafia VIII. Of your six kills, 5 were blue. Nice. But 2 of them were BGs, so that was probably luck. 3/6 is not too shabby. But how much of that was Showtime! or MBH's doing? Either way both of your plays as mafia resulted in a fair number of blue/red hits. That's pretty good. Incognito - I was mafia once, in your (Caller's) first game. Ver basically dictated the hit list (along with input from Showtime!?) so no, I have no experience with blue sniping. Yeah it is pretty alarming that three blues died. But looking at who the players are and what they posted kinda makes it fit. As I recall, CynanMachae posted a large post accusing TheLardyGooser, so it's understandable why the mafia would want to silence him. Foolishness: given his relatively high-profile status and the fact that he is less likely to be medic protted than others, for example, Ace/BC/me, I guess its not unreasonable that the mafia would hit him. Foolishness also attacks TheLardyGooser quite strongly. Radfield was posting pretty logically and actively, and didn't just post one-liners. Although didn't seem to be actively pursuing an agenda. Meh, I don't know about this one. Best fits would probably be blue sniping or just the mafia wanting to get rid of a relatively active poster. [NyC]HoBbes is the only one I'm clueless about. Looking back through his posts I still don't see any obvious reason why they would've wanted him dead. I can only see blue sniping as a decent fit for this kill. Or just randomness. But the other kills don't seem random though. However, given the general fact that blues try to keep quiet, maybe they just made a wild guess and chose hobbes? Although there are plenty of other quiet useless posters out there... Out of this list, BC would be the one to look at if anyone at all. Given his suspicious (well, non-existent, really) behavior, it seems like he fits best. But for the moment we should probably focus on other issues at hand. But BC better start posting or else the lynch hammer is going to have to come down. | ||
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On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote: I didn't say we wouldn't have enough... I said we wouldn't have tons. We probably will have enough... but not so much that I would be totally comfortable with doing it and the second lynch will probably be a stretch. It really all depends on how the game plays out. If after tonights killings there is reason to believe in Day 3 we'll be set on two Mafia I might very well change my mind. But I'm just playing it safe... too many lynches without enough information just means more green deaths. Your third sentence contradicts itself? It pretty much says, "we will probably have enough information to use a double lynch, but I'm not comfortable using this enough information to actually lynch two people!!?" Which is it? Although yes, at this rate, nobody's spitting out enough information to DL tomorrow. This statement is shaky, but I guess it doesn't make sense for you to say this as mafia. Since really not very many solid suspects have been brought up, so you wouldn't have the need to avoid DLing then. On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote: You're right... this is something I'm guilty of. I am normally a reactionary player and even more so in this game... I mean hell even this response is only a reaction to you prodding me a bit. I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information. Great I'll look forward to it. On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote: About bandwagons: Normally bandwagons are something to be avoided... but in a game where you need a majority vote to lynch they're inevitable, and even necessary. Do you really think that everyone voting for jpak really beleived him to be scum? Or even agreed with the reasons he was being lynched? Without Jugan switching last minute (when he claimed he wouldn't) we wouldn't have got a lynch at all. We should still look closely at people who do little but bandwagon (yeah I fall on this list right now, but whatever) So you are in the lets-not-kill-more-innocent-townies-with-shaky-Double-Lynches camp, but you're also in the lets-lynch-people-just-because-i-don't-want-a-no-lynch camp. Cool beans. On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote: Yeah the medic list eh... hrmmm... not entirely well thought out but certaintly I can defend it. The list wasn't meant to tell the medics exactly what to do... and surely it wasn't meant to include everyone that I thought was at risk. I actually meant to include d3 and don't know why it didn't end up on there. But Zona and Ace were ignored because Zona hasn't been especially active other than his Zbot and he's been really active on other parts of the site, so although his contributions have been incredibly useful he hasn't been all too active around here. Ace seems to have given up on the game and I have doubts whether he really is a dt... but regardless it's not like he's contributing to anything other than his ingame-game. I saw Infund's list... but I thought it could be expanded... tree.hugger and foolishness have posted semi-intelligently but yeah hobbes... mmm... that's someone that might have been left off given some more thought. Hmm...you're still suspicious, but this has put me back into indecision. Actually finding out today's deaths makes you look more innocent. Since two people on your medic list died. I'm not sure you're that crazy to put two of your hit list members on a public medic list. Although I guess since Hobbes was like a lolwut and Foolishness was acting...shady you could take that risk. In any case, I await your active contributions to the town effort. | ||
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On April 21 2010 11:16 Bill Murray wrote: This just means we have to work harder to win, but i'm worried that there's no town circle forming. veterans like ace and bc need to get off their asses and actually do something instead of appearing bored and letting the town go to shit. since you guys aren't stepping it up, i'll have to. since i know i'm green, we can create a town circle around me. I'm not asking you to roleclaim to me, but if you are a member of this town, and want to contribute and win then u need to listen to me. We need to get rid of people who aren't stepping up to the plate. these players are supposed to be good and helpful players but instead they are not helping or are just posting garbage: Tree.Hugger, Ace, BC, Infundibulum, Lolwut since when does BM step up to the plate? And since when does tree.hugger trump ppl like Zona for the "good and helpful players" list? Um what makes you think this? I thought it was at least halfway decent... | ||
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On April 21 2010 12:04 Korynne wrote: Hi guys! Just reading through the thread right now, will post noob analysis in a bit (first game >.<). Ooh look! Another noob card! We've got a lot of those floating around...wonder how many of them will lead us in the right direction...Where are you peoples? Can we get this train going already? | ||
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On April 21 2010 12:21 Bill Murray wrote: zona isnt doing a fucking thing to help us Well uh...and you think Ace and BC ARE going to do something to help us? | ||
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(Semi-)active suspicious people: tree.hugger is against BM's assassin plan but wants to discuss it. Is this because he wants the town to go on the wrong track/get distracted from their real objectives? Tries to derail the thread by continuing to talk about assassins...is he an assassin?? Or just a mafioso using that as an excuse to find something to talk about? Posts other useless information, and lately posts that he agrees with foolishness and me that there is enough information to work off of. He also complains about the vets not helping, but shows no intention of actually helping. RebirthOfLegenD: Promises reds and results. Fine, its only day 2. But he posted recently and all it was was a *cry* blues have died post. Not the greatest activity there. Planning to do something anytime soon? Responds to assassin discussion. I'm glad BC pointed out to us about how BM's plan produced results. Hopefully I won't over do it on this factor, but if we add up all the factors, it might give us something. Other than that, RoL has been pretty useless. RaGe: Tries to tell us to random lynch on day 1. I get it now, its not that terrible but not that great. Overall, just tells us nothing in general. He then proceeds to get attacked and has produced nothing useful since. Only defense of himself. Which isn't really pro-town. Scamp: Talks about assassins. Pops in to say useless stuff. Only one semi-decent post, which just parrots the attacks on TheLardyGooser. Debating whether I should have put him here or lower on the list, but I don't see any redeeming value here yet. Abenson: Talks about assassins. And that's pretty much it. This should probably be just counted as inactivity, but whatever. Caller: Rolechecked red, and has been making some pretty loose intuition-based attacks on ppl. No strong solid evidence here, so nothing of redeeming value. I guess the rolecheck does it for me. The only reason I could see for Ace lying like that was if he was mafia. I don't think he's that "L"ish to sabotage his own team, so he's probably telling the truth if town. Since its not exactly the best time to sac a mafia member (a mafia death would mean a KP drop), its highly unlikely that Ace really is mafia in this situation imo. Falcynn: Useless chatterbox. nai.Protoss: Posts when accused. Nothing more. Not too high profile but someone to look out for. madnessman: just barely makes the cut...on the suspicious side. Not too useful, but then again, not too useless either. Just purely inactive - and therefore should be prodded and abused so they can be useful: Scaramanga Fishball Koryone: New player, but claims newb. Something to look out for if it gets excessive, otherwise this name is just here to make sure he doesn't get overlooked. JadeFist: Rule breaking + auto-changing vote. Otherwise inactive Roffles: He says some stuff, but nothing outstandingly pro-town or anti-town. nbtnbt5 love1another AcrossFiveJulys motbob Suspicious people that have some redeeming quality: infundibulum: Cool. He defends Caller and Caller if appears red (if Ace isn't BSing us), this is a good sign. Although in response to KF, he actually has posted a few suspects (on the DT list if I recall?). Other than that, medic list + DT list shows at least some commitment to the town. Although it isn't all too pro-town. BloodyC0bbler: Who is being useless. And is supposedly a good blue sniper? I'm not all too convinced though. He better show up to post or else. Not high on the list, but still someone to look out for. His first post seemed pretty pro-town, but other than that nothing else really pro-town. Bill Murray: Bill is weird. From his assassin "plan" though, I'd probably look at his followers more closely than him. He's being kinda funky, like always, but he's been accusing more than usual. Usually he posts more about himself being green, no? Or maybe that was just a result of L attacking him like a relentless attack dog. Someone to look out for, but not that high on the list. Might warrant an RC though. Seriously its kinda hard to tell what he is purely from behavior (although he's never been red, right?) meeple: I'm on the fence with him right now. If you want more info you can look at my archived accusation post about him. Osmoses: Pretty much same as meeple *** Note* by the end, I kinda got lazy. Like I said, I am gone tomorrow, so I need to get to bed early tonight and ran out of time. Either way, good luck in my absence. I know this list is long. If you can get people to talk, it shouldn't be too hard to narrow the list down to a manageable size. But then again, since Caller's checked red, I probably wasted my time here. Just use this as a guideline so you can actually try to do stuff and not just sit there. Just because Ace has found us a mafia doesn't mean we get to rest for a day. Keep up the posting, and cya on thursday! | ||
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On April 21 2010 13:37 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: I would just like to point out that since Caller is now proven to be mafia and he tried to take me out near the start when he was under risk of being lynched, I am clearly not mafia. Although I am also proving your point that I only post to defend myself and I am semi-inactive. But until I find time to sift through all these posts and come up with a good arguement for why somone is mafia I don't have anything to post. Ouch. Popping out of nowhere and defending yourself on the basis that Caller is proven mafia - nice job. Sadly, Caller is not mafia. Avoiding analysis, and just popping out randomly to defend yourself. Although would you be that stupid to use this (Caller is mafia therefore I'm not) claim to defend yourself if you were mafia? O wait thats a WIFOM. You're super suspicious, especially given your posting record and uselessness. Luckily for you we have better suspects to go after. *** Cool. Underneath my large list of suspicious ppl post, I get a bunch of ppl arguing about the possibilities for what Ace's role actually is. Did you not read my post? Or just decide to ignore it?? On April 21 2010 17:46 Scaramanga wrote: If we use the double lynch who are we going to use it on, theres no point in using it if we have one target and we just waste it on an inactive. Theres been names thrown around the thread in the last few pages of who is scum, i'd like to see BC and those who are doing analysis to setup and suggest who to lynch or what two people should be lynched if the double lynch vote goes through Lolwut seriously? You've got to be kidding. Read the thread and contribute plox. On April 22 2010 09:11 Korynne wrote: I'm not so sure about that. Caller's vote is not exactly close, so a mafia member could definitely go slightly against voting for Caller without worrying that Caller would not get lynched. So I don't think that BC going against Ace is a sure sign of not being red. Likewise, I don't believe there's any reason for tree.hugger's idea that whoever goes against Ace is mafia. Some controversy over what Ace's result means about BC/the mafia... On April 22 2010 04:22 tree.hugger wrote: Immediate reaction: Ace is vindicated, unfortunately. And yet, we get no closer to reducing the mafia KP or eliminating them. So basically the worst possible result. Except.... From the mafia's perspective, Ace was lying about the rolecheck. The mafia could not have known that Caller was the miller, and though they might have couched their views slightly to accommodate for that, it seems highly likely that, in order to burnish their credibility, the mafia would've been among Ace's more vocal skeptics. Therefore, when Ace's claim would've been revealed to be total bull-L then the FoS could be smoothly redirected towards Ace, and the mafia members would look like they had a better handle on the game then others. So it seems to me that people who doubted Ace most strongly, or accused him of lying may have revealed themselves to be mafia. And one person sticks out at the top of this list, beyond all his scummy posting, and random accusations, I think BloodyC0bbler's seat just got a lot hotter. Lets reexamine. Mafia knows Caller wasn't mafia. From Mafia's point of view, a) Ace is DT AND Caller is Miller, or b) Ace is just BSing. If a), then mafia would have the incentive to try to lynch Ace, since they know that after Ace is proven to be a DT, Caller will also be lynched. Town therefore wastes 2 KP for nothing. If Ace was BSing, then the mafia would rather have Caller die first. If the mafia were unsure of whether or not Ace was telling the truth, then it would be safer to lynch Ace first, as lynching Caller could have disasterous consequences if he were the miller. However, as in my analysis, I stated my reasoning explaining why I thought Ace was telling the truth. If any mafia were reading my analysis, then it makes sense that they would want to lynch Ace. Ppl who were railing against Ace: BC. So yes, it makes sense from BC's point of view to try to get Ace killed if mafia. Combined with his blue sniping (although he denies it, I'm still pretty sure he is capable of doing this) and sudden appearance, a case could be made for BC's redness. However, I'm really not sure a 38 person game would have 3 DTs...which throws me into confusion. Lets see if Mr. Blue Sniper can shed some light on this and net us some more info on the blues (although flamewheel has had some weird balancing in last game). On April 22 2010 09:56 tree.hugger wrote: Lets recap: I suggested that, knowing that Ace was wrong, the mafia were more likely than not to conclude that he was making it up. Actually I would have thought otherwise, as per the above ^^ *** Anyway, in my absence, I guess its clear that you all just are apathetic people. Seriously, if you can't play to win or don't care to analyze, then please don't play the game. It makes it frustrating for people like me who actually put effort into the game. I know how it can be a daunting task to read through pages of info. But the game isn't really fun unless you do it. This game doesn't provide instant gratification, something which, sadly, causes many people to get quickly disinterested in the game. Anyway, with that said, we have to look at the numbers. 7 mafia v. 20 townies. Remember that we have at least 2 assassins left (or else an assassin would have won.) Therefore, we really only have 18 (or less) actual townspeople. 4 die tonight unless medics/vets do their jobs. What does this mean? We're down to 16/7 tomorrow night, given no lucky vig/assassin hits. Given we really don't have any solid leads, we only know that one of RoL/BC is most likely mafia, if not both (highly unlikely though). If we try to lynch both of them, we will only get one mafia. If we try to lynch one of BC/RoL and lynch someone else, we don't have as good of chance of hitting at least one red. 15/6 for the night, with 12/6 the next day. Unless we get lucky, we're pretty much doomed given the inactivity and our lack of suspects (well, Caller has suspects, but I'm not sure about all of them. Meeple I can see. Motbob is a crapshoot, as we have no info on him. ITW, I thought he was pretty pro-town, but I better check again.). Therefore, in order to win, I propose that we need to take a gamble. We don't have very many options for playing conservatively here. We need to thin out the mafia ranks soon. And for that, we need the help of the assassins. Assassins, why should you help us? Because its in your interests to do so. If the game ends quickly with a lopsided mafia win, you guys don't get a chance to win. Therefore, I propose that we work together to advance both of our goals. You guys have KP. You also want to kill assassins. At this point, the assassins are probably hiding in relative silence. (Or you could read my posts to see one person I think is probably an assassin). Most of the mafia are probably also hiding in relative silence, given the chaos in the thread for the last several pages. Which gives us a great opportunity to scum/assassin hunt. Assassins want to hide, as do the mafia. Given the (relative) inactivity in the thread, (its the same talking heads babbling over and over), assassins can further their interest as well as ours by shooting someone who is quiet. What does this do? 1. It promotes activity. If you are quiet, you will get shot. 2. It gives the assassins the chance to hit other likely assassins. 3. It gives the assassins more time to win the game if they happen to hit a red. 4. We also get more breathing room if reds are hit. Who are good candidates to hit? I would just use my inactive list. Scaramanga Fishball Koryone JadeFist Roffles nbtnbt5 AcrossFiveJulys motbob Objections? Questions? Also of course if you are a vig, please hit BC so we can find out about RoL. I'd hate to have to wait another day cycle to find this information. | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting. On April 23 2010 14:13 Korynne wrote: Um, obvious objection is that I am not inactive, I never was (I replaced an inactive), and you should be able to notice that easily if you read the last couple pages at all (which you seem to have, since you quoted me and mentioned me in your post >.<). Actually, given that Caller ended up being miller, I think it's rather silly for nai.protoss to post something like that if he was mafia. When it is revealed that Caller is miller, nai.protoss has to defend himself all over again. Given how he plays, I would say he's just an overly defensive noob. Either way I don't agree on hitting protoss if we have a better player that is a suspect, only based on the fact that he doesn't seem to know what he's doing, i.e. probably won't contribute a lot to the mafia. Mostly in agreement with Incognito's post minus the fact that he called everyone apathetic people. xD While it is true that some people have not been contributing it seems rather overgeneralizing to call everyone apathetic. Not to mention that kind of hostility further intimidates new players... Oh sorry. I copied and pasted lists from one of my previous posts, and changed Fulgrim to Korynne. I didn't really run through to see if anyone got active. Just used the old lists. Falcynn was in another list, aka the more suspicious ppl list. So yeah, assassins are free to kill Falcynn. Actually my top 3 picks would be motbob, Falcynn, and JadeFist right now. | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:24 Ace wrote: Vigis shoot infundibulum too he's useless. I wish we had 3 vigs...but I highly doubt we have 1 hatter (2 KP) AND 3 vigs (3 KP). Just hit BC, we need that hit more badly in order to confirm RoL (Unless RoL is just being an asshat). | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote: I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons. Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day. If you're accused of being a useless chatterbox and then just disappear, it looks more suspicious. Congradulations, it seems as if you've been active lurking! Someone plz kill. | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:36 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Wow, impulsive defense for inactivity with an excuse already tucked away in your back pocket? Mafia much? Yeah, could you do me a favor and kill him? | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:45 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Sure. Dead by tomorrow. If he doesn't die tonight, though, I think he's a good candidate to be one of the lynchees tomorrow depending on how the RoL/BC conflict resolves itself tonight. So you ARE a vig/Assassin. Thanks for letting us know! I knew I could trust you. | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:40 meeple wrote: Eh... your thought on a subject matter is always something to consider, knowing how you're making decisions if you're town is invaluable for our success, regardless of how useless you think it is. Continually calling for more deaths is lame... Of course. We should sit here and wait for the mafia to kill us. Either way, you haven't been all to useful. Of course, you did give us your analysis, as promised. But its a half hearted attempt at best. nbtnbt5. Fine. Makes sense. Assassins you can kill him too. Abenson. You say he has a lot of posting. Orly? Look at past games, he's posted a ton. It was useless too. This is not very insightful analysis. You admit that he also says he is useless. Not very much of an analysis, huh? Also, you post some Rage analysis. Only after you come under more attacks. And you say your suspicion has greatly lessened. Ok, how exactly does that help us? It really doesn't. You also say, "The two listed in my latest post? I gave reasons for why I suspected them in the post. I never said that we should lynch them now". Ok, so you also admit your analysis is half-hearted and not good enough for a lynch. Can you please make it less obvious that you're trying to just get away with the bare minimum? You make me really want to lynch you. | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:53 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: Honestly when I signed up for this I didnt expect it to be so indepth and so much work. Also it seems when ever I post I make an idiot out of myself and further prove myself to be mafia. Since I am town and want to not get voted out so my team can win I have just sat back and not posted, except to defend myself so I hopefully don't get voted out by my teammates. Oh hello there. Let me just quote myself (and L by proxy?): On March 17 2010 13:07 Incognito wrote: Like L said previously in response to ~OpZ~'s long defense posts, defending yourself doesn't do that much good unless you have a solid case. Sadly, you don't. So instead of trying to defend yourself, start generating some content. | ||
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On April 23 2010 14:58 Korynne wrote: It's okay. The more you make an idiot out of yourself the less I am inclined to want to lynch you even if you were mafia. xD Just read stuff and I would say at least make a post giving your reasoning when voting (even if it is for example, "well i don't know much but it seems like ____ is making a lot of sense here when they're accusing ___, so I'm voting for _____ today"). This way at least if we think you're voting incorrectly we can try to put you on the "right track," if you are a townie. Actually this is a way of looking bad. What not to do: "Hmm I'm confused about who to lynch. There doesn't seem to be a lot of information out there, but (Player X) is good at finding mafia. I think i'll be voting for (X's choice for candidate) today." | ||
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On April 23 2010 15:02 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: You too right? let's both kill falcynn in case a medic tries to protect him ~_~ Sadly, I'm not. Thats why I'm asking you to do it. Don't let me down! | ||
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On April 23 2010 15:08 meeple wrote: Where is my Rage analysis? I don't recall looking at him too deeply. Am I destined to continually be picked apart like a loaf of bread in a duck pond? Step back and look at the situation neutrally for a moment. I don't admit that the analysis was half-hearted... I said that it wasn't conclusive, as with any analysis. nbtnbt5 has too little posting for me to be totally comfortable with his lynch, but I do suspect him... Am I not allowed to post analysis that doesn't end with "lynch this guy!!!" The Abenson issue is non-existent... he was mod-killed and was green. My analysis on his play was wrong. Sry. Do you take issue with my instructions to medic/vigi's? I'm doing far above the average here, so I don't know where this bare minimum is but its pretty relative. Oh wait nvm. You didn't analyze Rage. You just said you didn't suspect him as much anymore (why?). "I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information." - Ok. Maybe I'm being a little too harsh. But from someone who posts so much, I expected more from you. Besides your one post with 2 pieces of analysis, your posting is relatively useless. I get the nbtnbt5 analysis. How long did that take? If you find nothing conclusive, you don't go try to find some other information that is? Yes, Abenson may be dead now, but it doesn't change the fact that your analysis was not very insightful. Where did you post vig instructions? On April 23 2010 15:10 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: To late for generating content. If you have already convinced yourselves that I am mafia then no amount of content will change that. No matter what I say it will be overanalyzed and used as "evidence" as to why I am mafia. I will save you a vote and go inactive next day cycle, and get modkilled. Actually if you noticed earlier, it worked for Osmoses. And coming to think about it...he's disappeared lately. So Osmoses, if you are reading this message, you can feel free to post something. You admit that you only pop up to defend yourself. So no, I'm not really overanalyzing you. You're just resigning yourself to my accusation, and don't feel the need to change your behavior. That is quite commendable, good sir (and fellow townie). | ||
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On April 23 2010 15:10 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: To late for generating content. If you have already convinced yourselves that I am mafia then no amount of content will change that. No matter what I say it will be overanalyzed and used as "evidence" as to why I am mafia. I will save you a vote and go inactive next day cycle, and get modkilled. Hold on I totally misread that. No, I have not already convinced myself that you are mafia. But you sure do a good job at making us want to think that. A little less self-victimization would help your case. | ||
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On April 23 2010 15:29 Korynne wrote: nai.protoss. D= If you are town-aligned, GIVEN HOW BAD WE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DON'T GO KILL YOURSELF. >.> I don't care what Incognito says, a townie voting with someone "reliable" is better than a dead townie. My proposal is to SPREAD OUT "newbs" to vote with people the town generally consider to be innocent (Ace for example right now). I see no reason at all why this could be worse than having them die or follow stupid bandwagons. I propose that nai.protoss votes with Ace tomorrow. If you do that then we lose one critical element of information - that is, vote list analysis. | ||
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On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote: I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one. Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red. Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through. Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk. We have at most one vigilante, maybe none. This person should use his kill to kill BC. Which will be able to tell us something about RoL, giving us information to use for our double lynch. Why shouldn't you randomly kill someone based on your own research? We already have narrowed down a pool, BC and RoL. Unless you want to waste both lynches on these two characters, one of these people must die now. If you were to do your own research on who to kill, you have all the information from the past 2 days. Then, during our Double lynch, we are forced to kill BC/RoL to get us our 1 mafia. On the other hand, if you kill BC right now, we know whether or not to trust RoL, giving us the flexibility of not killing RoL in the event that BC is mafia or miller. Furthermore, our second lynch will be more accurate since we have the information from the past 2 days PLUS all the information from the night's killings. By making the no-brainer kill now, we can wait until we receive more information for the more accurate lynch. Medics. Don't follow one person to protect. Follow two. Flip a coin between protecting Ace and me (unless anyone else has a better suggestion on another useful person). That way, the mafia can't really be sure that they can successfully kill either Ace or me. This makes them scared to hit either of us, effectively doubling your protection powers (unless the mafia is really ballsy). So sorry, meeple, I retract my statement that you're being useless. This post was actually useful. I disagree with some parts of it, but it shows effort. Bravo. | ||
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On April 23 2010 15:52 Korynne wrote: Well sure that's the ideal situation. But if nai.protoss feels like quitting surely we'd prefer a brainless townie to a resigned dead townie. If we run out of better suspects we can lynch him, but for the meantime I can't see how it would hurt the town to keep him around as votes. I think this is safer than having him vote someone "randomly" because he's "new" and "doesn't know who to vote for" etc. I mean same goes for people like Scaramanga, who says he's bad at analyzing so he'll just hear what other people have to say. If they're not going to contribute, we should at least make sure their actions are controlled by townies, rather than randomness. Given that they are "bad" players, I don't think having people like that being the last 2 mafia would hurt us terribly as lynching them instead of bigger threats. Of course, if someone's giving intelligent analysis one game and playing dumb the next, then this will not apply. I am in no way discouraging analysis and input, but if you /have/ to play that card then I suggest you follow someone significantly townie and probably a good player, aka Ace right now. Also, this means that if we're at critical mass, we assume them to be mafia and not assume them to vote with someone else(LYLO). No, its better if we have a resigned dead townie than a brainless townie. Allowing brainless townies encourages mafia to pretend to be brainless townies. Its practically impossible to tell a brainless townie from a brainless townie-looking mafia. And hidden brainless mafia are worse than one dead townie. I did say that we have better suspects than him, didn't I? Its not that hard to read the analysis (he has been doing that apparently) and pick which analysis you agree with. And when you state your reasons why you are voting for someone, don't hide behind the cover of following someone or not having enough information. Own your analysis (even if its stolen from someone else). Don't cushion yourself with fluff words or distance yourself from the analysis. Embrace the analysis, and pretend its yours and you'll be fine. Yes, people like Scaramanga also have to step up. I was just using nai.Protoss as an example. There are plenty of others out there who need to step up. I do not endorse random following. | ||
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On April 23 2010 16:05 meeple wrote: Ace and Incog imo are ok people to protect for now... although flipping a coin won't really avoid the potential for double protecting whatever it randomizes it. I agree about the BC vigi kill... but I want to encourage people, especially those in powerful roles like medics/vigi's to be questioning things in the thread and not following so blindly. If you've made a solid logical case for BC's death (which you have) then there's no reason for a vigi to not follow it. Now, if it turns out the RoL really is trustable... then it kinda thins out the protection again... but then again if we have two medics, we should be able to cover 3 people pretty nicely and in this case we should use the randomization method suggested by incog to remove personal bias and increase overall protection of the three. Actually we want the possibility of both medics protecting the same people. That way the mafia are forced to use 3 entire hits to make sure one of us are dead. | ||
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On April 23 2010 16:10 Korynne wrote: Considering how low we are on townies, I really don't think having a dead townie is good for our causes, especially since mafia KP is so high. I guess we'll just wait until tomorrow morning to decide what to do, but one dead townie is one step closer to losing. One inactive townie lynch right now is 1.5 steps closer to losing (.5 being a 50% chance we could've lynched a mafia instead). Anyway, no point arguing about this now when we have other things to do. nai.protoss, do what you see fit and JUSTIFY YOURSELF AS BEST AS YOU CAN WHEN DOING SO. Of course one dead townie is bad for our cause and advances our loss. I am not advocating that said townie should just die. I am advocating that said townie defend his viewpoint like I stated a couple posts back. One alive blindly following mafioso is infinite steps closer to losing. Because we'll just assume he's a blindly following townie and never lynch him. Yes, here I am contrasting your proposal to what will actually happen. But there is a third option. Which I have already explained. | ||
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Oh well, I guess I am useless. Maybe I should just stop putting so much effort into this game. Hopefully your DTs can win the game for you  .Gnight y'all. | ||
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Bill Murray: At first he made me think he was just playing usual and just be ignored. But his posting has dramatically declined. Busy? Thinks he's in the clear? Not his spammy usual self anymore. But then again, its really hard to read him. If he's mafia, he may be receiving orders from a strong mafia player (BC). Lets see if his posting deteriorates even more after BC is offed. He's been acting inconsistently though. No. 1 RC suspect imo. Scaramanga: You've been useless enough, been called out enough times on it, and haven't responded. Moreover, you seem to be active elsewhere but not here. You've been around long enough to know what is expected. motbob: motbob is inconsistent. Besides his early useless posts, he posts this: On April 21 2010 15:49 motbob wrote: I don't want to get modkilled, so here I am, posting. I think town is pretty much on the right track so there is no need to delve into anyone's posts or anything yet. But only two posts later, he says: On April 24 2010 10:46 motbob wrote: ....I don't think this game is winnable unless we hit on every lynch. 14 town and 7 mafia. Mafia have 3KP in a best case scenario. If mafia just skip likely medic targets and hit random town, and we miss a lynch, this game is basically over. What makes this worse is that (imo) we don't have any likely lynch targets. So town is in roleclaim mode IMO. What does everyone else think? So the town is on the right track, but then only two posts later we're doomed? What happened? I'm sure the night kills didn't change your mind that much...your posting is inconsistent, and you just seem to be stirring the pot and trying to avoid discussion when possible. Then, you pop up and say we're doomed, likely because you want to out all the power roles. Given that I still think there's at least 2 medics in there, that would help you a lot if you were mafia, right? Trying to push the boat in the direction you want? Seems like it to me. Falcynn: I thought you could've been mafiassassin given that you were talking a lot about assassins in your early posts. But now that all the assassins are gone, I guess that clears a few things up. Other than that, advocates a randomlynch, posts more useless information, then responds to me. Then your posts really start to slide. Defending your terrible play, admitting to active lurking, and even more defense of your terrible play. I wish townies would just stop defending their terrible play. Either way, I don't think you're a townie, so whatever. In response to your post, I had an inkling AFJ was an assassin, and felt bored last night. Sadly, he didn't bother following through and choosing to kill you. If you tried to kill him to stop his hit from coming through, it wouldn't work, all night actions happen simultaneously. So no, I won't use that excuse, but then again, I don't really need to. d3: hmm the Caller-is-innocent vibes may have been coming from reading my list of innocents. Blindly following me? Or having a subconscious bias of Caller's innocence because of my statement? Other than that, he seems to be posting like normal from past games. I like my other suspects better. Although d3 hasn't been extremely helpful. Hmm...I seem to remember that he is usually more technical and planning-oriented. Didn't see too much of that in his current posts. Scamp: probably town. I like RoL(?)'s and meeple's latest analysis of him. yeah, he voted jpak, but I don't know how much weight that holds for me. His mention of TheLardyGooser doesn't seem a mafia oriented action. And even though he's been around for a while, I don't think he would be one to accuse his own mafia member off the bat. Although given the weird activities going around lately, I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia had a solid player around trying to coach the weaker ones. (Would make sense since BC has been so inactive all game). Anyway, paper due on monday morning, so I will probably be less active until then. Looks like not much is happening right now though. | ||
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On April 24 2010 22:10 motbob wrote: Your analysis on me is poor. In between those two posts, the mafia that Ace fingered turned out to be a miller. Three townies were modkilled before night one. Five non-mafia players were removed from the game during night one: two townies and three assassins. RoL's role check alone shows us that assassins can be helpful to town. Nine non-mafia players were eliminated, and zero mafia members were eliminated. After these events I make my second post. It is a massive misrepresentation of my posting to note that my posts came one after the other, but fail to mention that they were three days apart. Oh hmm I looked at the dates, but for some reason I thought the modkills happened before then. My bad. On April 24 2010 22:55 Ace wrote: Wow good post Rage. I just saw something interesting in that last compilation. Looking through Incognito's list of earlier likely innocents almost all of them ended up being useless players. Do we have any mad hatters left? Role claim now if you are alive. Yeah, it is a pity that all of them turned out to be useless. 2 players who ended up acting scummy (and miller lol) and an inactive Zona. And now BrownBear is acting somewhat scummy himself. I guess its difficult to make early judgments based on a quick rundown of some posts. And BM's disappearance in favor of running his own game make me think he's scum too. On April 24 2010 23:06 RaGe wrote: If you consider my hypothesis of Mafia not believing Ace was a DT after his Caller rolecheck, then these are very suspicious posts: That last one especially. Not only is he putting suspicion on Caller (which makes sense for mafia if my hypothesis is true), but he's putting suspicion on RoL now that the BC vs RoL thing started. Although I see the reasoning behind why mafia would think Ace was lying, I still think it somewhat strange that the mafia really didn't take Ace's claim seriously. I mean, out of all players, Ace is one that people would expect to be more rational. Claiming DT out of the blue isn't something I would discount right away, especially coming from someone like Ace. If your hypothesis is correct, then maybe the mafia are all made up of newer players who don't know Ace's style. Although I would think that inexperienced players would panic and want to off Ace right away after Caller flipped red, which didn't happen. Something doesn't line up here. I know from instinct I thought IntoTheWow was town. I'll go back and check his posts though. On April 25 2010 01:54 Korynne wrote: BrownBear Started April 20th, replacing Zona. Level of Activity Other than his first 6 posts, all his posts are very far apart in time. 13 posts total 4 "real" posts total "real" posts cluster towards the beginning Summary and Accusations: Started off doubting Ace in the Ace vs. Caller thing (basically time when he entered the game) Still doubting Ace after Caller is miller'd. Feels a bit under fire from people trying to analyze his predecessor Accuses BC of being assassin Accuses RoL of being scum Says he'll do an analysis of BM later Longer explanation of why RoL is scum Says that he doesn't want to tell medic who to protect, and says vigis/assassins should perform some hits without providing recommendations Again with the "gogogo medics vigis and assassins." without recommendations. Does not like Korynne telling medics what to do, saying mafia could kill 4 randoms instead of Ace and RoL Complains about 14T/7M and doesn't contribute. No new posts between end of zBot and right now. Conclusion: Btw when I count "real" posts I don't mean specifically 1 post, it's more like okay these 3 all look a bit fluffy I'll combine them into 1.5 "real" post count. Anyway, I think BrownBear looks a bit suspicious. Posts are getting fluffier as time goes by, and less activity as well. I expect some real content from BrownBear or he looks rather scummy. BrownBear: especially combined with his latest qualification of his argument against Fishball, makes me want to stare at him more. Actually, from his first post he does seem to be trying to sow seeds of, "Prepare to kill ace when Caller flips innocent" logic. BrownBear's doubt of RoL seems mafia-ish if BC were mafia. However, BC as we know, flipped town. Although I guess it would be logical for the maifa to doubt RoL anyway knowing that BC would flip town and that they could also get RoL lynched the next day as per the Caller/Ace argument presented by Rage. Scummy looking at this point though, but I'll take a few more minutes to look more into detail on this later. On April 25 2010 03:41 BrownBear wrote: To be fair, end of zBot and now = time when BrownBear was running a show, and sleeping. And I apologize for the lack of content recently, I have been very busy (as light designer/lightboard op for a show, these last couple of days have been hell). I will start adding some more content, because I am most definitely not scum, and to be taken as such would be kind of a failure on my part, and would really screw the town over. Also, btw, I no longer doubt Ace, he's definitely a detective. I said as much already too. So let's start analyzing people on Ace's list, because I like it (apart from myself being on there, obviously ) But first, I still owe an analysis on Bill Murray, so I'm going to post it now, sorry for it being so late.So to begin, Bill Murray Early on, not really that much content. Accuses Zona (me) and RaGe of scumminess, Zona for relative inactivite, RaGe for saying "hey let's just bandwagon RoL day 1". Then BC, who is probably scum, jumps on saying "motbob is also red" and BM thinks he's blue. (correctly) labels tree.hugger as assassin (damn man you are good with the analysis). Claims himself to be green, laments he's never red. calls for a lynch on KF91 (who coincidentally, just wrote a list above fingering Bill Murray as potential mafia, as well as me again) Continued random posts with minor analysis until we get to the first "Ace is a detective" argument. Here it gets interesting. He provides analysis with all the options, then agrees, "you know what, ace is probably a detective." Turns out, he's right. Woo Bill Murray. After that, he's been very very quiet. A few one liners here and there. So I am inclined to think he's town. He's very very good with his analysis (2 correct so far, whereas I have 0), and he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game. Thus, I'm gonna say town. Also this is some terrible analysis. Mafia would have the incentive to say tree.hugger is an assassin too, no? On April 26 2010 02:14 BrownBear wrote: Also, where the hell are the vigilantes and Mad Hatters? Unless I missed something, I have yet to see a kill from any vigilantes or the second Mad Hatter, if there is a second. 99% sure theres no hatters left. Maybe a vig, but other than that, I wouldn't look to be reliant on having any other extraneous KP. On April 26 2010 07:03 d3_crescentia wrote: I was hoping you'd come back and post something that would be a bit more thought out, but alas - my hopes were dashed, and you're going to have to go on my super special awesome list. Cool. I wasn't alerted to the fact that you have a super special awesome list. Care to share with us? Anyways I'm running out of fuel for this game. Are you? | ||
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Falcynn. I already did an analysis of him. I don't think anything's changed since then either. Quoted for reference: Falcynn: I thought you could've been mafiassassin given that you were talking a lot about assassins in your early posts. But now that all the assassins are gone, I guess that clears a few things up. Other than that, advocates a randomlynch, posts more useless information, then responds to me. Then your posts really start to slide. Defending your terrible play, admitting to active lurking, and even more defense of your terrible play. I wish townies would just stop defending their terrible play. Either way, I don't think you're a townie, so whatever. In response to your post, I had an inkling AFJ was an assassin, and felt bored last night. Sadly, he didn't bother following through and choosing to kill you. If you tried to kill him to stop his hit from coming through, it wouldn't work, all night actions happen simultaneously. So no, I won't use that excuse, but then again, I don't really need to. Ah yes, IntoTheWow, thank you for reminding me of my statement: If you're not going to bother stepping up your game now, don't expect us to believe you when you pop up tomorrow and try to defend yourself after we've accused you. Either way, we probably can't afford to policy lynch. But at the same time, I doubt any of the people who haven't posted yet are going to give a decent defense anyway. I'm going to make this my policy for future games, at least as a test for the next few games. Seriously I'm tired of waiting to hear people until they are accused and come up to defend themselves. Its a waste of my time, and everyone elses time. Which reminds me: people like meeple (still), falcynn, scaramanga, fishball and nai.protoss follow this trend. Thats 5 people. Out of 18. Not good. Anyway, people I have high on my list that should be seriously considered for lynch: Fishball Scaramanga BrownBear General reasons for lynching them have already been given, so I won't bother to go into detail on them right now. BrownBear would be my choice pick right now, but given that he is actually active, I'll wait to hear a defense before voting. IntoTheWow: Inactives on TL mafia...are always existent. Are there trends to point to whether they are town or mafia? Not really. Inactives are useless in every game, and burden the town at the critical moments in the late game. At this point, further analysis is relatively futile. Sure, you can probably find some things, but most likely, you'll find nothing conclusive. If you are to do any analysis, analyze people who have posted a substantial amount. The information you have now is probably the only relevant information you will have. Other than that, its a crap shoot. | ||
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On April 22 2010 03:43 BrownBear wrote: Ok. Wow. Reading this was intense, and this is far far deeper and more elaborate than any Mafia game I've ever played before (although, like Korynne, I've never played on a forum before, so maybe that has something to do with it.) That said, here goes, with a little mini-analysis of what seems to be the biggest story of the last 20 pages or so: Ace vs Caller. I find the Caller bandwagon to be slightly weird. It seems that people have jumped on the caller bandwagon largely due to this post by Ace: + Show Spoiler + On April 21 2010 12:37 Ace wrote: STOP THE GAME! Rolecheck on Caller came back : Caller is Mafia Lets get this shit. ...although Caller really hasn't helped his cause much by being BM about it. However, the only real proof we have that Ace is his word, plus an (easily fakeable) pm from flamewheel. Of course, he still could easily be a detective, as he said, but then that begs the question: why did the Mafia not kill him on night 1, and go for Radfield instead? I have not seen any evidence that the Mafia knew somehow that Radfield was a detective - except, of course, for another post by Ace: + Show Spoiler + On April 20 2010 06:42 Ace wrote: wait my bad. This guy is. Don't let him die - only hope for the town to win. ...which doesnt exactly implicate Radfield as a detective, but... it's just very very strange to me. It's not really enough for me to stick my neck out for Caller, as he's pretty obviously today's pincushion, and honestly, people have been lynched in Mafia games for less that this. However, it does make me suspicious, so here's my recommendation: Lynch Caller today, and see what his role was. If he does turn out to be scum, then I hereby retract all the nasty horrible things I said about Ace in this post, with my most humble apologies. However, if he's innocent... I for one will be targeting the guy who seems most responsible for his death. Now to prepare to have my argument cut to shreds  First post about the Caller/Ace situation. At first, this sounds like a post that supports Caller's lynch. It seemingly says to trust Ace on Caller unless Caller turns up green, which is perfectly logical. However, why does this require so many words? If you look at the underlying tone of this message, it looks to plant seeds of doubt on Ace's credibility. BrownBear a) questions why Ace is still alive if he is truly a DT, b) mentions how Ace's DT check is "easily fakeable" (he could forge a pm from flamewheel, which is in fact, illegal, but whatevers), and c) finds it "interesting" that Ace mentioned how Radfield (a dead DT) was critical for the town. Lets unpack. Questioning Ace's DT alignment is a good move for the mafia. They know Caller was innocent, so by questioning Ace's alignment, they could prepare to say "see I told you" when Caller flips green and lynch Ace the next day. Furthermore, BrownBear downscales the validity of Ace's rolecheck, saying that it is virtually unprovable. While we did see BC also make a similar attack and BC was town, the other parts of BrownBear's post show that BrownBear's logic is different. BC was relying on previous (and widely known) metagame tactics to lynch the DT as the best course of action for the town, while BrownBear simply doubts Ace's checks because they are "unprovable". Whether or not you agree with the BC's proposed strategy, at least he provided one. BrownBear, on the other hand, does nothing of the sort, and simply attacks Ace's validity without providing a logical underlying reason. The reasons he gives are that there is no proof. BrownBear's post has direction or basis in logic. It is merely a doubt post. In addition, BrownBear brings up Ace's post where he tells the medics to protect Radfield, who is the only hope for the town to win. Why does he bring this up and only say that "it is very very strange to me"? By saying this, BrownBear is trying to implicate Ace's role in Radfield's death, without actually explicitly attacking him. Why does BrownBear mention all the above points? It doesn't make sense if he were town. As a townie, its obvious that if Caller flips green, Ace is BSing and should be lynched. There's no further need to place doubt on Ace. Unless of course you're mafia trying to get brownie points. On April 23 2010 03:31 BrownBear wrote: Eh, so it goes. I'm not really going to try to pretend I knew what was going on in his head. So, having looked at the required reading, here goes in terms of analysis: BloodyC0bbler: Started the game offering a lot of advice to new players, and specifically telling medics NOT to protect him, Ace, or Caller. With Caller out, that leaves him and Ace that the medics are NOT supposed to protect. That, to me, is kinda suspect. If you analyze it on the surface, it's a totally selfless move that makes him look townie, but honestly, why even bother making that move? He could have just as easily said nothing about whether the medic protects him or not, and it wouldn't have been suspicious at all. Plus, now, with it having been pretty much established that Ace is DT, having medics not protect him is just silly. On the other side, to be fair, BC probaby had no clue Ace was a DT when he made that post, so it's not entirely damning evidence, it's just minorly suspect. Gives some more early game advice, drops into some oneliners, then starts a bandwagon on RoL, then jumps off immediately once it gets rolling. What? He claims its under the pretense that he's starting wagons on inactive players. As this is my first time playing, I don't know if this is actually a legitimate strategy, but, hey, y'know, whatever. He then follows up with some decent analysis of random people's posts, which all seem to end in confirming them red. Kind of odd that he yells at meeple for doing nothing but confirming people red, while at the same time pointing the FoS at many people himself - the only difference is he mixes it up by also adding advice to newbies/random oneline comments. So... I feel something's off here. I am pretty sure he's not Townie, based off the fact that he seems to have a clear agenda here, and he's picking people who I don't think are mafia, and accusing them to be red. But at the same time, he's also (so far) working by himself, and doesn't seem to be anti-town so much as he is anti-specific people. Thus, I'm going to call Assassin. RebirthOfLegenD Not nearly as active as BC, but that could mean anything, he claims he's been very busy. Most of his posts are 1-3 liners, with the exception of some longer defense posts. What I don't like is that ok, he has accused BC of mafia, but he presents NO evidence besides "rolecheck confirmed LOL". I fail to see anywhere where he claims to be a DT, or have any rolechecks whatsoever, so if someone could point me to that that would be greatly appreciated. Beyond that, he doesn't seem to be taking the game very seriously, his posts have little to no analysis, and he appears to have given up on the town. All this points to SCUM Bill Murray I will analyze Bill Murray in a little bit, as I have class now and there's a lot of reading to go through. Second big post by BrownBear. First off, we know that before this post, RoL already claimed that he checked BC as a MAFIA. So why does BrownBear say BC is an assassin? First off, let us first assume that BrownBear is town. A logical reason for calling BC an assassin, is naturally, because he doesn't believe RoL is a DT. Which he does post. So from a town-point of view, BB's actions make sense here. Now let's assume that BrownBear is mafia. Well, given from the previous debacle with Ace/Caller, the mafia might be afraid of millers and would be moved to consider attempting to lynch the unconfirmed DT before he is confirmed. The mafia knew that RoL wasn't mafia, and therefore was either a green BSing, or a DT/Assassin. Because of the risk of getting (another) confirmed DT, it makes sense that the mafia would want to kill RoL first. BC was a suspicious target anyway, and they could probably get him lynched after that, even if RoL did not turn out to be DT/Assassin. And if RoL turned out to be DT/Assassin, it would be all the more easier to lynch BC the next day. Win-win for the mafia. Now we have two reasonable explanations here. Both make sense, and are reasonable interpretations. So I guess we'd have to look elsewhere for more information. On April 25 2010 03:41 BrownBear wrote: To be fair, end of zBot and now = time when BrownBear was running a show, and sleeping. And I apologize for the lack of content recently, I have been very busy (as light designer/lightboard op for a show, these last couple of days have been hell). I will start adding some more content, because I am most definitely not scum, and to be taken as such would be kind of a failure on my part, and would really screw the town over. Also, btw, I no longer doubt Ace, he's definitely a detective. I said as much already too. So let's start analyzing people on Ace's list, because I like it (apart from myself being on there, obviously ) But first, I still owe an analysis on Bill Murray, so I'm going to post it now, sorry for it being so late.So to begin, Bill Murray Early on, not really that much content. Accuses Zona (me) and RaGe of scumminess, Zona for relative inactivite, RaGe for saying "hey let's just bandwagon RoL day 1". Then BC, who is probably scum, jumps on saying "motbob is also red" and BM thinks he's blue. (correctly) labels tree.hugger as assassin (damn man you are good with the analysis). Claims himself to be green, laments he's never red. calls for a lynch on KF91 (who coincidentally, just wrote a list above fingering Bill Murray as potential mafia, as well as me again) Continued random posts with minor analysis until we get to the first "Ace is a detective" argument. Here it gets interesting. He provides analysis with all the options, then agrees, "you know what, ace is probably a detective." Turns out, he's right. Woo Bill Murray. After that, he's been very very quiet. A few one liners here and there. So I am inclined to think he's town. He's very very good with his analysis (2 correct so far, whereas I have 0), and he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game. Thus, I'm gonna say town. BrownBear makes a defense post, where he acknowledges that he now thinks Ace is 100% DT (whereas before he was was still doubting), and throws up a poor analysis of Bill Murray. Absolutely trash analysis, which, contrasts with his previous analyses. (At least his BC and RoL analysis had some decent logic). The one sided, incomplete, and grossly mis-representative analysis of BM makes me think that this was thrown up in a hurry to avoid suspicion. Very shady here. What else is wrong with this analysis though? It focuses on Bill Murray as a good analyst and says that "he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game". First off, Bill isn't a good analyst, and even then, the material that BB focuses on is that BM correctly guessed an assassin and a DT, which are not the most pro-town of activities. Analysis on mafia is very different than speculation on blues, and here, BB seems to want to want to make us think that Bill is useful because he has good analysis. Furthermore, BB also says that the fact that Bill hasn't random accused recently makes him more pro-town. While it may be true that Bill hasn't done that recently, he hasn't even been active recently either. BB's attempt to play up Bill's analysis skills and dismiss his early random accusations (scummy behavior) reminds me of a mafia trying to defend another mafia. Which brings me to another point: Unlike other candidates right now, BrownBear's lynch gives us information for tomorrow's lynch. If BrownBear flips red, we get a juicy lynch target for tomorrow. On April 26 2010 14:06 BrownBear wrote: As an addendum, I would also say that even if my analysis is false and he isn't scum, he's done nothing helpful for the town at all (not even analysis), so... the only downside is one less Townie, I suppose. And that's a worst-case scenario. I'm still sticking to my guns that he's Mafia. People have stated that this is scummy because it is a preemptive defense. That is true, but there's more to look at here than just that. As I have already told everyone before, And when you state your reasons why you are voting for someone, don't hide behind the cover of following someone or not having enough information. Own your analysis (even if its stolen from someone else). Don't cushion yourself with fluff words or distance yourself from the analysis. Embrace the analysis, and pretend its yours and you'll be fine. While I wrote this to address the problem of ppl justifying their votes by just blindly following someone, the same principle applies to analysis. Own your analysis. Don't hedge your possible error. Adding fluff words to distance themselves away from their analysis is something that scum do to attempt to flee accountability if they're wrong. Justifying your analysis by saying "but oh, if he's town, he's useless anyway" is a great way for you to hide if you're mafia. Sure BrownBear, you could have done this even if you were town. But given all the other things you've done, that possibility does not seem too likely. Luckily, this statement also gives us direction on what to do tomorrow if you flip red. It tells us that we should probably not lynch Fishball. One more thing, the icing on the cake: On April 26 2010 23:07 BrownBear wrote: I would dispute that. I'm concerned about a wagon starting on me because it would be a massive waste of time, and this late in the game we cannot afford to be lynching non-mafia. I added on what I said because I meant to say that second part before, but forgot to until later, and didn't want to edit my post. This is a BS response. Before he even acknowledges the fact that he preemptively defended himself, he tells us why he's concerned about getting bandwagoned. That wasn't the question. And it looks bad when you defend yourself on a question on why you're defending yourself when you haven't even been attacked yet. Summary: BrownBear is scummy and should be lynched. Yes there are other scummy people out there. But unlike other alternatives, BrownBear has said enough that we have leads tomorrow if he flips red. So we get a bonus here because we off a very suspicious character while also learning information. Win-win for us. | ||
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On April 28 2010 03:03 BrownBear wrote: I'm going to put forward Scaramanga and Scamp as our two best lynching candidates for now, and I would say definitely vote for Double Lynch. So now the question is: Scaramanga or Scamp? Scaramanga Off of Rage's post on Scaramanga, we can tell he is, erm, raging that Scara is pretty useless as a townie. He also plays the "I'm new" card, which many other newbies have played, which doesn't really excuse the fact that I have yet to see him make one decent post of analysis. He does think the stacking of KP on Ace was a good idea, when it wasn't. IMO, we have at most 1 medic in the game, so the mafia could have chosen to stack 2 on Ace and 1 on someone else, but they chose to stack all 3, so they made kind of a bonehead decision there (not like I'm angry at them at all, but still). Thus, I think anyone who thought it was a good idea is looking more and more suspicious. Scamp Fewer posts than Scara, but much much more content per post, so I'm gonna go ahead and call him more active than Scaramanga was. Recently, he's provided some analysis on Bill Murray, which basically consisted of him pointing out that BM only suspects inactives. I think that's more Scamp misreading (deliberately or not) BM trying to get people to be active ingame. Asks way more questions than he provides answers. Grouped himself in with Scaramanga and Fishball, which is a retarded move regardless of your alignment, because they're pro-town. Really wasn't very active until the last couple of days, but there is at least activity, and it's at least got some content in it. So, there's my analysis of these two. From my perspective, I'm leaning more towards lynching Scaramanga today, but I'm still open. I'm definitely voting for the double lynch. O hai BrownBear! Oh I guess I forgot one other thing: Thus, I say, you [Fishball] good sir are SCUM, and i say we lynch him at sunrise, unless Ace flips someone else as Mafia for sure. But you didn't follow through with this. And now you want to lynch Scaramanga/Scamp? Abandoned faith in your analysis? Or just too scared that when he flips town, we won't believe your preemptive defense? | ||
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On April 28 2010 03:31 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: (I know I am doing something very similar to this as well so no need to state how hypocritical it is) Of course. Because if you acknowledge that you have scummy behavior, it clearly means that you are definitely not scum. | ||
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Lynch suspects for tomorrow are: almost everyone. Hasn't changed much. But I wouldn't be surprised if flamewheel ends the game if the mafia makes their hits. So medics are pretty much our only hope. There's not too much analysis to do at this point. Just waiting to see what happens... | ||
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On April 30 2010 15:56 IntoTheWow wrote: If it's not obvious enough, Protoss is Mafia. I'm voting him and meeple as lynch targets. I think they are solid lynch options from the info we got from the previous weeks, all the constant defending themselves and not posting for anything more than that. If you are a townie you should do the same (and if you are not going to do the same, post why please). *Sigh* whats the point anymore. No medic prots. 8-6 means it takes UNANIMOUS town consent to lynch a mafioso, because we need 8 votes to lynch, and the 6 mafioso are not going to vote for a mafioso if they can help it (or will switch right before there is a majority if they can). Given the large splits in the vote, it will be almost impossible to win. Right now I'm thinking Scara, nai.Protoss, and nbtnbt5 are strong candidates for mafia. Honestly, I don't get the reasoning for you ppl who are voting Scamp. From what I can gather, his early posts were pretty pro-town, and his recent posts haven't been too alerting. Even if he is mafia, we have better people to go after. Meeple also I think is an inferior lynch candidate. Meeple's behavior is not at all pro-town. Posting only when prodded. Useless posting, and sloppy medic list making. But meeple responded reasonably to my accusations, I feel. Like motbob said, retard townie v. mafia. I'm inclined to go for retard townie here and go for the other more suspicious people instead. Speaking of motbob, the night kills are a bit...interesting. Fishball accused Scara, and died, but motbob defended Scara as a retard townie, and died. I'm thinking that the night kills were probably attempted (partially successful?) blue snipes. Not sure what to make of the Scara business though. I'll think about this for a while, and either vote Scara/nbt or nai/nbt at this point. What do you guys think? Remember, we'll need complete unanimity to actually catch a scum. | ||
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United States2071 Posts
On April 30 2010 18:13 Scamp wrote: The way I see it, Incog, you've got the most townie credit. We should discuss all possible options and then have you make the final decision. Anyone disagree with this? Right now Osmoses has confirmed mafia to me by voting myself and Scara without bothering to post in the thread. And while she's been useful in the past, I think we need to look at Korynne for disappearing yesterday. My case and thoughts on Bill Murray is pretty clear at the moment. Finally I still think madnessman is also a good bet. I do need to go over the recent dead's posts, though. But I really don't think Scaramanga is a good target. Nai and nbt are okay, but I'm definitely sold on Osmoses. Also the lack of activity is disturbing. I really hope it picks up soon. Hmm Osmoses is interesting. But I get the same feel as meeple. Partially scummy behavior, but partially not. While I see your reasons for suspecting him, I see some redeeming value there as opposed to nbt or nai, who have done absolutely nothing. Korynne is more like you, Scamp, I feel. Pro-town pretty consistently, and I don't think her disappearance yesterday overrules her previous usefulness to the town. I still think Scara is good. But it seems like we won't get a majority on him right now. Everyone should post their thoughts about Scaramanga here. If it looks like we can get a majority, I'll go for him. Otherwise, I think nbt and nai are still better targets. Not too much time right now, but when I get home I'll look through the votes to see if these bandwagons give me any information. The only thing I'm worried about though, is that the mafia can afford to lose one of their players and still win the game with night kills. Therefore, we need 2 correct lynches to have any chance of winning. Which makes the bandwagon effect a little harder to analyze since mafia can make us doubt our lynch choices by bandwagonning one of their own. | ||
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Also please discuss your thoughts on the candidates. Osmoses/Meeple in one category (as per scamp), nai/nbt/scara in another category. | ||
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On May 01 2010 16:48 Ace wrote: ah well ^_^ When Incognito claimed Veteran and I said "I don't need to check you now" I was so hoping I didn't have to waste an RC on him. It literally came down to me deciding between d3_crescentia(my first choice), Scamp(who I went with) and Brown Bear. Then I get killed :/ Thanks to all the wonderful townies who didn't do shit and allowed scum to skate on by. Games like these are show exactly why it's damn near impossible to get rid of inactive scum. They BARELY post, post nonsense at that and as town it's hard to get rid of them because we've got useless players sitting around. Imagine you have ME as a Detective and you can't win. 20 players max and ban lame players or only allow them to play in Theme games. #Edit: Yea looking back 4 millers is like kinda ridiculous. Can't really blame this on Millers since 2 of them were playing more scummy than the actual Mafia. Where were all of the Vigilantes? I seriously hate town KP being tied to Double Lynches because of games like this. I never claimed veteran! But I didn't lie about the hit so yeah. TY KF91. | ||
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On May 02 2010 03:52 Zona wrote: Comments on the automated archive? How many people used it? Did you use it often? Was it useful? Did scum feel oppressed by it? Ways to improve it without being unfair? Archives are awesome. Its not at all unfair. I think that automated archives should automatically be included in the rules/package or whatever. Some people say it kills the spirit of mafia, but I disagree. Its just a handy tool to make analysis easier. Banning the archive is like banning the use of computers. Lets just do everything by hand! Really the archives is just something that makes our lives easier. It isn't cheating in any way, and doesn't change the substantive aspects of the game. We should use it every game if possible. | ||
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