EPTTL Mafia XVIII
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
Now since my profile is so diverse, EVERY clue can point to me ha ha ha! Wait a second... | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
I think that clues are definitely important pre-Day 3, but we shouldn't lynch on them, rather they should be used to get everyone discussing. Lynching based purely off of clues is completely retarded early in the game because there's nothing backing anything up, and in a game like this, where we have a lot of variety, they could point to someone completely different, and we'd be none the wiser. That said, we should be getting everyone to participate in the discussion. There's nothing worse than inactives, which, as Ver pointed out, ultimately hurts the town as they look just as suspicious as the mafia, which leads to wasted lynches and random lynches. And as for L's suggestion to lynch Chezinu Day 1, I don't think that's a good idea. Last time that was tried (t_co), it absolutely did nothing. At the very least we need something other than "a lot of posts" for a valid lynch. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 14 2010 10:43 meeple wrote: I thought about it... but generally its better to profile the killers right now. Last game we made a huge deal about some heavily caffeinated tea at the beginning that ended up being nothing. Often it seems that the host is overly descriptive just to make our lives harder. Ah ha ha I remember that. I think clues would mostly be concentrated in areas that actually describe somehow the killers right? I didn't take notice if that was the case at the end of the last mafia game, but I believe that was how it turned out. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this. Such elitism. Regardless, I'm still all for incorporating clues into Day 1 discussion. For instance, we now have a defense from you, which is good for building a profile, whether you're innocent or not. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 14 2010 12:06 Ace wrote: Ok L, try using that the "40% of people are Mafia argument". It doesn't help. Blindly pointing fingers in the chance you may nab someone is just as bad if it were a game where 20% of the people are Mafia. Stop it. You're wrong. Then what do we do Day 1? Sit on our asses and come up with overall plans that have undoubtedly been said already in other mafia games? | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
redtooth: I don't think that using "correctness" from previous games is good for anything. Posting behavior, like Ver used, is fine, but whether or not a person is correct doesn't really account for anything. If you find an inconsistency or a consistency in how L is posting here versus how he has in the past, then you could build a case against him. Not otherwise. In any case, I am all for a mayor that is uninvolved in this entire mess. We've already had doubts concerning Ace, and I for one trust Chenizu as far as I can throw him, so we should begin narrowing our mayor candidates. After all, don't forget that discussion concerning who we should elect as mayor AND pardoner are just as revealing about behavior. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 14 2010 14:58 redtooth wrote: it's just a case study, much like what L did in his post. But you used it to justify Ace as a player. L used it in a general sense, and it was not a major component of his argument. If Ace is Mafia this game, then that argument makes no sense. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 14 2010 15:36 Chezinu wrote: If he flips red, you have to admit that I found the clue first. Ace was one of the few profiles I memorized... I remember in Caller's game I caught him riding on horseback when he was on vacation.. ahh good old times... What is this, personal glory time? Makes no sense whatsoever. And I think BloddyC0bbler's statement regarding l10f has some truth in it. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 14 2010 17:34 redtooth wrote: GUYS THIS IS ACTUALLY A KEY OBSERVATION AND SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED. stuff like this is the reason why edits are highly discouraged. did Bill just let slip that he knew the identity of one of the mafia godfathers? and i like the way he basically listed every high-activity poster as a mafia. Every high-activity poster other than Ace? And I wouldn't label Ver as high-activity... In fact, I think this is the first time we've had a serious accusation against him. And the "other godfather" slip is pretty big... I'm curious to see what's going to happen. Let's not forget the mayor elections in the midst of this though. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
You know, labeling people as blue, red, or green is nice and all... but we should be concentrating on the mayoral elections. I for one don't want to end up putting a crap or mafia mayor/pardoner into office because people are just riding the bandwagon. Some people have brought up the point that we shouldn't vote citi.zen in based purely on performance in past games, and I'm inclined to agree with them. There is absolutely no reason why we should be taking performance in previous games into account unless we're using them to establish a shift in posting behavior or as a case example (such as Ver's usage when accusing BC and meeple and L's usage to draw a parallel between this game and another game). We should be extremely cautious, and I encourage people to give a more valid reason than "he served us well in the previous game". The question remains though: who can we trust? I have no idea  . Everyone running has something about them that I just find suspicious or that makes them kind of untrustworthy. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 15 2010 12:21 L wrote: I have issues with your analysis of the clues for Mafia A, as you've called them. The persona you've established, specifically the 'horseman who blinds with light" is inaccurate. Not only does the horseman blind, but he is blinded himself during paragraph 2. This double take on the same theme is massive, and is pretty much the EXACT same format that was used to introduce truthbringer's chaingun. Additionally, the clues aren't clear on who jumped through the wall, but from the flow of text, it seems that it is the first horseman who does; the other stays back and laughs. I could be wrong here on two counts; it isn't certain that the horseman in para 2 is the same as the first one, but it seems odd that blindness as a theme would be repeated, no? That said, granted the ambiguous nature of which qualities are ascribed to which horseman, its entirely possible that you're 100% right regarding someone here and that Ace is the other horseman, which is something I worried about while initially looking at the clues. This uncertainty in attribution is why I think Emp is the more assured cluetell, but I'm still not really done thinking about the risk/reward profile of lynching him vs Ace granted the information disparity that we'd gain from killing one over the other I don't entirely agree with your analysis of Mafia B either; Mystlord seems like a far better candidate for the rooftop killer granted the weapon and location of the picture. The link to fire is one of those perennially used ones that leads to herrings, so I wouldn't try to go fire-> someone without other links. If you read my link to Emp, you'd know there's a fire element there too. I'm pretty certain that most of the Mafia B clues need more fleshing out before we can be accurate with them, with the exception of the angel. First off, I actually missed your post BC, sorry about that .In any case, I agree that the clues can point to me (lol how am I supposed to doubt that?), however, I think the more pertinent clue for the fire one lies in the fact that the torch flew in through a window opposite the horsemen. That could indicate a magical or supernatural component in the killing, and not that it is one of the members of Mafia B that threw the torch. I have nothing to say about the horsemen that kills Qatol because, well, the only clue we get about him is the cackling and the moonlight, which my profile does match. Now as for L's response, the first passage specifically mentions that there were two horsemen that met with Qatol, so it'd be a bit of a stretch to assume that the horseman in paragraph 2 is the exact same one in paragraph 1. Another note is that auto-assuming that a clue is a red herring isn't a good way to look at clues, at least in my opinion. Everything that appears should be considered relevant unless proven otherwise. One final note about the rooftop killer - the passage mentions that the killer ripped Incognito's head off. The girl in my profile has a sword, which doesn't "rip" at all. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 15 2010 13:31 CynanMachae wrote: Sagiura, is there a way to list by post count number? I put it into OpenOffice Calc, and tadaaa doctorhelvetica 92 chezinu 70 bill murray 57 meeple 57 redtooth 50 l 42 iaaan 40 ace 39 bloodyc0bbler 36 abenson 32 d3_crescentia 23 789 23 citi.zen 19 incognito 19 fulgrim 18 [nyc]hobbes 17 zato-1 17 flamewheel91 12 mystlord 11 sidesprang 11 ver 10 qatol 10 infundibulum 7 madnessman 6 sugiuramidori 6 malongo 6 phrujbaz 6 l10f 6 faronel 5 zona 5 fishball 5 johnnyspazz 5 scamp 5 caller 5 xelin 5 dozko 5 ~opz~ 5 shockeyy 4 cynanmachae 4 nikoner 4 masterdana 3 tree.hugger 3 nemy 3 best[alive] 3 foolishness 3 amber[light] 2 empyrean 2 quickstriker 2 shikyo 2 vivi57 2 ohn 1 tredmasta 1 lucaswoj 1 stimilant 1 | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
I like how some people are taking an in depth clue analysis Day 1, but unless we can pin someone down on both clues and scummy behavior, it's not going to help too much. As of right now, I would vote to lynch an inactive, purely because right now, we have about 4 to 5 people completely caught up in their own little world making snide comments and arguing, and the rest of us are just barely trying to keep up. If all of you are green (as you claim), then you're literally self-destructing, and the mafia don't need to do anything but sit back and relax. I would definitely feel uncomfortable lynching any major player right now because I haven't seen anyone just completely fall apart and seem completely scummy. On the same note, I'm still unsure who to vote for mayor right now because all of them have like this vendetta against another active player or something. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 16 2010 07:15 Iaaan wrote: To add onto why empyrean might not be the best choice; no one is defending him. If he were mafia, him family wouldn't want him dead, it doesn't seem like sacrificing him would really benefit his family. You would think that if he were mafia, at least someone would try to defend him. It could be a calculated sacrifice. If town is convinced that someone is mafia, mafia would be unwilling to put up a strong defense of that person without seeming scummy. We might see a light defense though. Also, there's just not that much to defend for him. He hasn't spoken one. freaking. word. As for my profile pic, nothing to say. It's a solid connection to the clues, and I won't blame you if you end up lynching me based off of that. Oh, and another point about Empyrean... Where do we go from his lynch? Are we just lynching to help out the other mafia family or what? I might be a bit ignorant in this, so I'd like to get this cleared up before I'm fully on board with the Empyrean lynch. It seems more like a dead end to me. If he truly is mafia, why not let a mafia family waste a kill on him? | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 16 2010 08:05 Scamp wrote: With this logic, you're saying the town wants to do nothing and let the mafia do all the work. Basically, if we know someone is mafia we're going to kill them. Sure, the other family wants to kill them too, but the goal of the town is to take down as many mafia as possible as soon as possible to reduce their KP. We only need to worry about a mafia family winning once one family is reduced to the other family's KP. Besides, if we don't kill people that we think are mafia, what else are we supposed to do with our lynches? Correct. I want the town to do nothing, and the mafia to do all the work. I believe that our lynches should be used to reveal potential mafia, not actually kill mafia. If we're to pit the mafia against each other, then it stands to reason that we'd want to give mafia leads, not start lynching one a day. As far as I'm concerned, lynching Empyrean gets us nowhere. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
Obviously either common sense has been completely destroyed, or scum is at work here. Oh dear God BM. Your logic fails on so many levels... Why would mafia 100% defend ace/redtooth? And I can't even pretend to understand the rest of your post. By the way, DrH, you asked before the elections were over who'd I lynch, and I'd lean towards Ace. He's just involved with too many people and has made too many posts. However, I'm not confident in that enough to push for an Ace lynch, although the vote switching has made me a bit more suspicious again... Oh yeah, and it appears that we have gotten nothing off of the Empyrean lynch. Huzzah! Time to wait for Night 2... | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 16 2010 10:03 Fulgrim wrote: Technically we don't have to wait, hopefully the mafia families will do some of the work for us. We should continue trying to identify mafia within the town. Well at this point, I'm pretty sure that anything said now will just be a repeat of what was already said in Day 1. The Empyrean lynch got us no leads and no information, and I don't think we can really do all that much besides more clue analysis, of which we already have quite a bit on. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 16 2010 21:28 Ver wrote: I wish I had more time to work with this list but I'm overtired as it is and don't have time to finish the analysis on a few othesr. So I'm putting it out there now and hopefully people can add on and I can fine tune it after I wake up. Do not Protect List: Bloodyc0bbler: + Show Spoiler [Initial accusation] + On February 14 2010 10:58 Ver wrote: Time to start things rolling. My primary suspect for the first lynch is Bloodyc0bbler. Obviously he's only posted twice since the game started, an election post and another useless psot. BC runs for election quite a bit. I've taken the liberty of gathering up his previous election campaigns so you can compare them. + Show Spoiler [Chuiu's game 5 as Townie] + On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ok everyone, unlike the flashy gimicks of caller, I offer substance to my platform!. to start with heres my portfolio. Name: BloodyC0bbler Mafia experience: 5(6 if you count callers as two go's), 1 game run, 1 game co hosted Looking at just the one stat alone, I have the experience to lead this town to victory! In mafia 2, I was town aligned and we won, mafia 3 we as town dominated the mafia, mafia 4 was ruined by a jerkoff so well, can't really say much there. Tracils game ended early, but my side was winning. Callers first game ended day one with VI win, and his second game I as VI won. I have a high precident of winning the games on the side im part of, with ability, and luck like that, I would be an obvious goodluck charm for the town. Now, witha ll the extra things I do on TL (PX, Location thread, etc...) You guys know I spend way to much time here, giving me the most amount of time to really jump ontop of things, I can analyze clues well which is helpful in your sheriff. That is my background, As for what I will do for the town to win. As sheriff or mayor, I will help guide the town where I can doing what I do best, Analysis. I can analyze clues, behaviour of players and guide us in a winning direction. As sheriff, I can jail 4 people in a game once per person, this allows me to save potential targets from mafia in a night, or jail the mafia lowering their KP. As mayor I can guide us towards killing the right suspect, and with a day 1 auto lynch, kill the person who is the most fishy to the town, but in the end, that will come to a consensus among the town first. Now for a plan. We all know the town works better when organized, as such, neither mayor nor sheriff can guide this town to victory without being under suspect (we always flip as mayor or sheriff regardless of any other role). So heres the plan. Medics protect veteran players early. When one of them takes a hit, the medic should roleclaim to that person AND that person should claim they took a hit. That person then gets checked. They get the medic checked as well. If BOTH check out, they both come out and serve as figureheads for the town. They coordinate blue abilities but keep information on to the town. When the person is hit they speak up. The sheriff then locks him up, protecting him from night hits while a dt checks him out. Once verified we repeat process with med, and have two figureheads, as opposed to the regular one. In the event the person who is hit doesnt speak up, the medic speaks up, we verify them first, then the one hit after. This is our best chance at getting town leadership quickly. + Show Spoiler [Qatol's game 8 as Traitor] + On May 16 2009 15:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote: OK BOYO'S! Ok guys, this game will be the hardest one potentially we have ever done, as such we need to get the mafia as soon as this game starts. I've shown a record of insane amount of clue analyzing from previous games, as such I believe I would make a good candidate for the town to keep alive. I however, would prefer to be pardoner, this allows me to help prevent potentially townbreaking lynches. As mayor, I would analyze the clues (as this is my forte) and bring them to your attention and direct votes on the best possible suspects, thus bringing the town some central leadership to avoid chaos. As pardoner, I would do generally the same idea, however, would use my ability to prevent lynches on cases where it appeared someone with no links was up for no reason. Vote for order, vote for BloodyC0bbler + Show Spoiler [Plexa's game 12, Townie] + On July 03 2009 07:38 BloodyC0bbler wrote: OK first off I AM RUNNING FOR OFFICE I am already seeing idiocy of players that has led to many vets getting insanely discouraged with playing these games. I appreciate Plexa for trying to make this game interesting with the addition of different roles, tweaking how some work, and the addition of fog. Now lets outline why I should be in office. Weather I'm already seeing debate on weather, and You guys are saying opt for rain? We have two medics, each have an extra life, and they can protect people. Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option. Next we have sunny which allows our assassins to attack. If you guys vote for this I will kill you. EVEN IF they hit a mafia, which we all jump and joy in, there is a chance they hit the godfather, and guess what, this means the godfather role gets given to another mafia and we have to find the damn guy again, way to much effort, so sunny isn't an option we want, also vigi roles aren't always reliable, lynches are where we have to win, so SUNNY is out. Next we have snow, snow is useful for hey additional clues. Guess what, most of the top clue analyzers from all previous games aren't in this one, IE the amount of people benefiting from these clues is so damn small its not worth voting on, so we ignore snow. This leaves fog, ie WE SPAM FOG. All greens should be voting fog every day to keep it going. It removes the pledges kp from the mafia. So if there would be at least 1 possibly as high as 3 or 4 pledges. This will reduce a KP from the mafia meaning 1-2 less people die at night. THAT IS A GUARENTEE. Medics are not guarenteed to protect so this is a safer bet. So we spam fog until the pledges are all dead, then move on to a different weather. Also note, with fog reducing the mafia KP, the suicide bomber will be less likely to use his ability as it removes even more kp from them. Leadership In most games I have played, I have worked in some way in town circles working for the benefit of the town, many times leading to a win for the town. This gives me the experience to help lead the town and help keep it organized. The towns in the last few games have been reduced to very small voices screaming at a mass of chaos and leads to failure, it has to stop. I would make an excellent choice for the leadership purely based off my experience at keeping some form of order. Untop of that, for once I am one of a very few in terms of a specific skill. I, as ive said in other games, clue analyze. Out of the current player base of this game, Myself and Pyrr are most likely most known for spending time on clues (there may be one or two people from pyrr's game , but i didnt pay much attention to it). This means either him or myself should have the bg protection purely to keep us alive to use that skill. I will do my best to keep us alive. Double Lynch I will make sure we get these used on top mafia targets, IE if we have two insanely guilty looking people, double lynch will be used. We wont have to worry about constantly voting for double lynch one day, then worrying mafia stop it. IT WILL GET USED and by god it will get by the town. These are merely a few points, but seriously with the debate of what to vote on for weather, A strong player is needed as the emperor or we are all fucked. Vote for me but more importantly VOTE FOR FOG + Show Spoiler [This game] + On February 14 2010 07:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As the game as begun, it is time to get it started. I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for the position of mayor. I believe the town can easily win this if we work together, as a concise unit, and do so before the mafia can create their own plans. Action must happen now. My campaign is on a platform of strength. I believe I have the strength to help pull this town together. I can analyze clues, behaviour, and can help guide blues to where they should act. The more we work together, the less we have to lose. The first lynch at the moment, as there is nothing to really go on, I believe is moot unless someone gives themself away obviously. Therefore I would lynch the most inactive player, or in the case of someone giving themself away, that person. Any other choice should be pardon'd instantly. Vote for unity, Vote for strength, Vote for bloodyc0bbler Notice the similarities between the two games he was innocent. He comes in with a plan, goes into detail, and gives genuine advice. In his game as a traitor, he offers nothing, says random gibberish, and is basically goofing off. He makes no serious attempt to do anything. Exactly like his campaign post this game. BC is a vet, and has played more games than almost anyone else (I think only Ace and maybe Caller leads him). He's also hosted a bunch of games as well (3). He knows what needs to be done. He knows what a mayor needs, he knows how to act as a townie; negligence is not an excuse. BC is acting very out of character and it's so blatant that it's obvious from just 1 post. Further Analysis: BC basically dodges the issue entirely, and frankly his response reeks of a calculated play to do the things that would make him look innocent to me. This is followed up with general uselessness while not remaining completely inactive, not an innocent BC trademark. Further slipups include telling me privately that the the two people who stand out the most are him and myself. He viewed me as being too helpful and thus suspicious, but that apparently did not stop him for voting for me despite the fact that I accused him?? He later retracted his vote for no stated reason, which makes it look more like a simple calculated reaction. He also says he has a rudimentary plan worked out, then never follows up on it in private or public. He also posts several times about how clue analysis is useless until day 3, but then acquiesces for no reason and does serious analysis in day 1. This would not be so much of a problem if it was not his only substantial contribution, but it certainly boggles the mind why someone would be so present, yet make his only real contribution on something he repeatedly said was useless. Meeple + Show Spoiler [Initial Analysis] + On February 15 2010 09:13 Ver wrote: Ok, we need to get discussion going. I don't have much time now so I'm just going to make a quick writeup on another guilty person. FYI by accusing these people I'm not necessarily saying I would lynch them but they have been suspicious and need to account for their actions. But we need to put the pressure on people who have not been acting in the town's interests. Meeple Last game Meeple was a Townie. Here are some day 1 posts to get you familiar with him. + Show Spoiler + On January 20 2010 11:56 meeple wrote: Hmm... the biggest clue that stands out to me is the strange monkeyish reference. I agree that highly caffeinated tea is out of place too... but it might be a stretch to think of Golden monkey black tea... unless we know that someone here is a huge fan of it. On January 20 2010 12:09 meeple wrote: It caught my eye too... but perhaps its not an apple... but something about an adams apple, since its in his throat. So perhaps something that's extra manly... or has an adams apple thats especially prominent. On January 20 2010 12:29 meeple wrote: Well... although cookie monster might have "barbaric" movements... I don't think they would draw the line between him and monkey. Although, if I were thinking from a game-making perspective... cookie monster and the cookie in The_Master's profile is too good to resist. On January 21 2010 00:25 meeple wrote: If we're going with just imagery, we might as well consider keit and the Cookie Monster. Much more barbaric and it can be paired with shoving the apple down his throat, like Cookie monster does with cookies. Things to note: -Lots of clue analysis -Actively giving his opinion -Trying his best to contribute -Posting extremely frequently Now let's look at Meeple this game: + Show Spoiler + On February 14 2010 10:13 meeple wrote: Clues I think are important to the game and although especially in the early game they are very little help and can sometime steer us away from realizing and recognizing suspicious posting habits.. On that note, it is very important as we saw in the last game to try and keep impartial since the mafia will no doubt try to twist the clues to sway our decisions. Just something to keep in mind... On February 14 2010 10:22 meeple wrote: I agree fairly heavily with Ver's above post.. The more active posters, the less places the mafia have to hide. Right now though, at least in my mind, the lynch target is a bit of a crapshoot. I'm naturally inclined to lean towards clues so Ace comes to mind as a target, but in reality picking an inactive might be just as likely to hit red. On February 14 2010 11:58 meeple wrote: I agree that he's on the right track, but try not to beleive so easily... he's a vet, which means he can play either role really well. I'm not pointing fingers, just saying that we need to keep our eyes open... On February 15 2010 03:32 meeple wrote: Yeah, I would ask the same. I'm skeptical as to how you came to those conclusions... Things to note: -Meeple praises clue analysis, but DOES ALMOST NOTHING HIMSELF -Lots of talking to other players, but little real contributions -Plenty of useless posts, where he writes words but says nothing new in them -Less active overall What do you think of this Meeple? Further Analysis: Like BC Meeple, basically avoided the accusation and continued on his merry way, which he was given the luxury of thanks to mountains of spam covering up the accusation. As further followup was impossible he's not 100% guilty but it certainly doesn't look good. I want to take a closer look at him when I wake up. Ace My certainty with Ace is less than with the above two but Ace really has no business being protected anyway with his performance so far as regardless of role he is hurting the town. Ace has been a consistent presence in the thread throughout the game, yet despite this fact he has given almost no real contributions at all. He has instead defended himself, caused a lot of chaos, and...not really said much else besides judging others. This does fit with his the behavior of his previous mafia performances (see here and here ). In these games Ace sits back, passes judgment on the play of others, and offers nothing himself. The only saving grace of Ace is his accusation and 'trap' of DrH, which while good seemed to be nothing more than a temporary fad that he gave up on promoting (if I am wrong please correct me, I couldn't find it via searching). Mystlord: Mystlord is on here at the request of L (who also requested Bill Murray but I don't see any reason for him to be mafia at all). A quick glance at his posts reveals that he has posted a bit, but said virtually nothing in them. Lots of anger at other people for being useless, yet doesn't do anything himself. This is a common mafia trait and otherwise Mystlord has done little to convince us of his use to the town. A brief glance Medic List: Chezinu Ver Caller DT check list: Fishball Shikyo LucasWoJ Citizen Fulgrim Quickstriker Tree.Hugger MasterDana The DT list is rather long but there is a pretty big subset of players that we lack information on and these are some of the more glaring of those, plus we don't want DT checks overlapping. That's just how I play. I don't really have too much in my defense other than that it's hard to actually come up with plans when you have a ton of veteran players that are putting forth a lot of good ideas. It's also actually fairly hard to devote that much time to mafia considering the amount of crap that's going through this thread, which I find to be the most aggravating part about this game in particular. Regardless, I personally don't think it would be prudent for mafia to take such a passive stance as I have. If I'm mafia and I'm trying to blend in with the town, then I've done one crappy job. I was going to post some stuff on protection, but it's past the deadline so I'll just wait for the Night actions to come out (if I don't die due to my clue connection), before I do anything. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
If the mafia have teamed up to eliminate the town first, we're in deep shit. On the other hand, I'm curious to know who was medic saved. Oh yeah, and I notice a distinct lack of descriptive detail in this post compared to the first one. Kind of weird, but I think the clues really jut out at us this time. I'll take a closer look when I get home. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
Some clue analysis time. I'll bold the areas that I think are significant. On February 17 2010 09:39 Incognito wrote: When the three Mafiosi made it to the city gate, they each decided to go in their separate directions, moving swiftly towards the houses of their victims. The first Mafioso went straight for the town center. When he finally arrived at his victim’s house, he noticed that the door had been left wide open. Cautiously, he peeked in the window, noticing that a pot of soup was still cooking on the stove. A pencil and a few charts were also spread on the table, but the Mafioso could not notice that anything important or telling about the papers. Figuring that his victim had been alerted to his presence and had hidden all his important documents before hastily vanishing, the Mafioso tiptoed upstairs, careful not to make any noises that could alert his victim. Upon reaching the upstairs bedroom, the Mafioso noticed fresh tracks beneath the window, and jumped down, careful not to disturb the tracks. He raced through the forest, and soon found his robed target sitting by the lake. Ace felt no surprise as he turned around to greet the Mafioso. He was about to warn the Mafioso that he couldn’t hide in the darkness, when suddenly the Mafioso sprayed gasoline all over Ace and quickly lit a match. As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. The same motif of fire and the contrast between darkness and light. I can't think of any reason why two of the exact same clues would exist that point to different mafia members, so I'm going to assume that this is referring to the same person. A few things to note besides the fire and the darkness/light contrast is how careful this mafioso is. He's a tracker - silent and observant. This again matches with the first horsemen from Day 1, as he notices Qatol sneaking into the barn. A list of characteristics: -A tracker -Observant -Loves fire and gasoline -Loves the contrast between darkness and light Meanwhile, the second Mafioso made his way all the way across town to a small apartment on the edge of the city wall. Although the road to the residence was filled with many twists and turns, the Mafioso was able to reach the apartment without too much loss of time. The Mafioso knocked on the door, waiting for a response. Nervous, Zato-1 pulled out his shotgun, ready to shoot the intruder if he proved to be a menace. But Zato-1 could not have been more prepared for what happened next. As he opened the door, he was immediately knocked down and impaled by an array of sharp objects. The intruder was nowhere to be seen, although neighbors who have walked by the now open door have noticed a hole in the wall directly behind where Zato-1 had been killed. I'm having a bit of trouble with exactly what happens, so I might be wrong here. So first off, we see another mafia that has no trouble with tracking, or he's at least well acquainted with the area. He's not a blundering oaf. Something else to note is the method of death. Sharp objects, I believe, is a pretty significant method of execution. It's very brutal. Something of interest, though, is how the mafia escaped. If I'm reading the story correctly, the mafia apparently blew a hole out of the wall? Or am I misinterpreting that. I'm not exactly sure where to go with that. Perhaps someone else could shed some more light on that. -Doesn't get lost. Knows his way around. -Kills through sharp objects. -Blows a hole through a wall to escape? The third Mafioso headed toward the construction site, where workers had been trying to rush build a new town jail. From the building above, the third Mafioso noticed his target working in the guard tower across the jail courtyard. Smiling to himself, he snuck around to near the tower and took control of a crane that he had hidden nearby. Only a few of the workers noticed the large shadow blocking out the bright artificial light necessary to light the construction site. A few yelled at the workers to get out of the way, and fortunately everyone did but one. BloodyC0bbler did not notice as a miniature version of a stone sphinx came crashing down on the site, demolishing the guard tower and spraying blue blood everywhere. Rather sparse set of clues. A mafia that plans ahead of time, although apparently BloodyC0bbler is deaf or a moron, or a combination of the two . Jokes aside, this mafia is not afraid to destroy a ton of stuff to get at his target. Obviously a miniature stone sphinx is important...-Plans ahead of time -Loves destruction -Stone sphinx to kill. (I don't think anyone with a stone sphinx as a profile pic is a target though, seems too obvious. I believe an Egyptian reference is much more likely here.) Meanings of a Sphinx: -Temple guardian -Riddle of the Sphinx. “Which creature in the morning goes on four legs, at mid-day on two, and in the evening upon three, and the more legs it has, the weaker it be?” Answer: Man—who crawls on all fours as a baby By some accounts[5] (but much more rarely), there was a second riddle: "There are two sisters: one gives birth to the other and she, in turn, gives birth to the first." The answer is "day and night" Note: I'm cautious on the second one, but we can't count it out. There's a lot more, found: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphinx On the other side of town, things were no less gruesome. Contrary to the warnings of the new town leaders, Fulgrim decided to ignore safety and take a hike in the meadows nearby. But the air was dry, and Fulgrim began to sneeze. After blowing his nose and drinking some water, he decided that maybe it was time to go home. After all, it was very late at night, and he had to get up to go to work the next day. As Fulgrim headed back through the meadows, he began seeing white particles drifting through the air and began to sneeze more. Realizing that the particles were likely the cause of his recent sneezing, he decided to breathe into his sleeve and quickly get back home. But the damage had already been done. Fulgrim slowly began to feel lightheaded, and fainted as he stumbled on a tree root just feet away from the town perimeter. Unfortunately, he would never wake up again. Again, a rather sparse clue selection. I read this two ways: 1) The attacker is a nature lover, and the particles are part of nature. Meadows implies flowers after all. 2) The meadows are a coincidence, and the attacker just loves using poison. Important - This mafia does not like to get his hands dirty. First one we've seen. -Nature lover and uses flowers/pollen poison or something. -or just pure and straight up poison. -Mafia does not like to get his hands dirty. d3_crescentia was getting ready for bed, when he heard some strange noises outside. It seemed at first that some bickering had broken out. When he walked outside, he heard some cursing, and shouting. Puzzled, d3_crescentia went to investigate. As it turns out, the man who was being yelled at had scrawled graffiti all over the man’s house. d3_crescentia attempted to intervene, but a cold menacing glare came over the duo’s faces. Before d3_crescentia could cry for help, a pan was flung into his face, knocking his teeth into his brain. d3_crescentia died soon after from internal bleeding in the brain. Ok, I laughed when I read this. Sorry, just had to say that. First of all, something to note here is that there are two people. Two people arguing, and a pan was thrown in d3's face. Something else to note here is that the two people were arguing. This indicates anger in this killer, again, something not seen in any of the other killers. The pan... Not exactly sure it's significant other than the fact that it's a household, ordinary item. Perhaps it was thrown up in a fit of rage? -Two people -Anger and rage Upon examination of BloodyC0bbler’s corpse the next morning, an autopsy found a strange sight, as it appeared that BloodyC0bbler had not died from the falling sphinx, but from a metal pike that protruded out of his stomach. The whole town was filled with shock and fear as the new mayor, redtooth, read out the inscription on the pike’s handle: “We invite you to make a holy pilgrimage to the town square today to offer a human sacrifice to the gods. That is all.” First of all, note that this DOES NOT invalidate the symbolism of the Sphinx. In fact, it in a way affirms the symbolism of the Sphinx in that the message is religious in nature. I am, however, unsure of how exactly BC was killed with the metal pike. I'm assuming that it was planted in him after the tower got destroyed. I'm not sure what else to say about this. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis: Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r] Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game... Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r] Sneezing and white things reference Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r] Bickering and madness references Dunno about the others yet I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 17 2010 11:24 nemY wrote: Couldn't the mafia have just hit a vet? If mafia hit a vet, and Ver claimed the hit, that's a really dangerous ploy. Ver made no mention of being a Veteran, so I can only assume a medic blocked the hit. To the medic: Please don't reveal yourself to anyone, not even to Ver. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 17 2010 11:28 meeple wrote: The gasoline does seem odd, but the dark/light reference does seem to be related to moonlight... and even if the gasoline doesn't point to you, the sharp objects in Killer 2's murder could, since the character in your profile picture seems to be throwing sharp objects. I reread the first story, and this jumped out at me: As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. I think that's a reference that he's terrorizing the town in day time. Could also refer to the fire, but I think the day time is far more likely. Since the first attack took place at night, I think it means that he terrorized the town at night then, and he's terrorizing the town at daytime now. And the character in my profile is not throwing sharp things. Those crystals are part of her wings. Sorry for the high frequency of posts. I just love having something objective I can grasp onto. Interpretation might be wrong, but let's get the facts straight first. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 17 2010 11:43 redtooth wrote: i think you guys are doing this wrong. but the key word there is think. i'm making a few key assumptions so let me list it out right now. Assumption 1: Incognito will not give clues on one person on back-to-back day posts. that means the fire clue for Ace's killer is not related to the two fire/flammable clues from page one (the oiled house and the thrown torch). this does not, however, mean that people with fire related profiles are any less suspicious. it just means that there is a higher chance that one of the fire clues pointed to that person. Assumption 2: incognito has not changed the way he is doing clues that means he takes one (read: ONE) thing about a profile and makes a persona about it. read this for more information on what said persona is and how he tends to do it. that means that finding multiple things related to a clue on a single profile does not help your argument. we can safely assume that the persona won't be something too detailed (like that song of the sphinx thingy...). it also means that there is one persona per mafia so concentrate on identifying that persona and behavior or thematic elements associated with that persona. taking these two assumptions into mind as you go clue analyzing should drastically approach the way you guys are doing this. Those are some fairly large assumptions. I'm not necessarily convinced that Mafia 1 from Day 1 and Mafia 1 from Day 2 are separate though. The similarities are rather stark. At the very least, one of the mafia from Day 1 should match with the day 2 mafia. It makes the most sense logically. As for assumption 2, perhaps. Regardless, I'm convinced that the Sphinx is tied to the perpetrator, whether loosely or not. On February 17 2010 12:33 Ver wrote: The mafia most definitely did not blindly follow me; if they did Meeple and Mystlord would have died too. It's most likely: a) Their suspicions coincided with mine on Ace and BC b) They liked my analysis on Ace and BC and did not like it on Meeple/Mystlord c) Mystlord/Meeple are mafia and the side(s) they weren't on simply didn't target them Obviously the purpose of the lists was to get them killed. BC I was simply wrong about, Ace I was not sure but he was adding a lot of chaos to the town and not doing much good. Frankly the outcome of the day basically says nothing about my alignment. On the other hand, if you saw 3 reds from 1 family die and 0-1 from another, then you should start getting very suspicious. If I was on a mafia team and I couldn't hit a single mafia or useful blue I would be uh...very ashamed haha (it's far easier knowing the identity of 9 players). Have you looked at the hitlists of games when I was mafia? I don't get a) or b) because the mafia has other hits to hit either Meeple or I. In fact, I think you're actually limiting the possibilities. First of all, none of the non-big name player hits from Day 2 appeared to have any major connection with the clues. Otherwise, 789 and I would have been good targets for the mafia to hit. While this can point to 789 and I being mafia, it could also mean that, like Ace, both mafia teams decided that behavior was much more important for Day 1 hits and geared their hits towards taking out as many suspicious people as possible. After all, mafia Day 1, just like town Day 1, is essentially a giant crapshoot. Now I didn't quote this, but referring to one of your other posts where you bring up previous posts. I'm not exactly sure how their posts will help us too much considering that they're all town. I can see how a mafia's posts would certainly help the town, but when you have nothing to compare it with... The most we can say is that none of their accusations were clearly anti-town, but that's not to say that they clearly or even vaguely point to other people. Uhh... If that last part made no sense it's because it's too early in the morning and I need some sleep... | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 18 2010 07:32 L wrote: Ok, lol. I am back. First off: I may have missed the mark on Empyrean and Ace, but the amount of people sitting back when I asked everyone to brainstorm was incredible. I think I had a grand total of 1 person make a coherent argument against Ace, which I accepted as substantially convincing, and cobbler argued against Emp. But to say that I accused Ace, Emp and 789 and only them on the basis of clues is flat out false. I admitted that Cynan might have been a good catch, and that Mystlord was a very good target. I also requested that Ver put bill murray on the do not protect list. There are others, but frankly the omission of Mystlord from the list of people I thought were guilty via clues is hilarious. I even had Ver add him to the list of people I suspected. If I'm guilty of being wrong, so be it, but don't assume all my targets flipped green, because more than half of the people i fingered day 1 are still alive. On to today: Why did I accuse the people I did 12 hours ago? Lol because they're fishy as fuck. But lets talk about that after some preliminaries: 1) It seems readily apparent to some that there are two 'group's in the set of clues: the ridge team and the other team. I buy this theory for the simple fact that the ridge team has showed up twice and is identified as a discernible group. So i'm going to call them: Ridge Team and Meadow Team. Meadow Team is a shitty name, but frankly it kinda makes both teams feel like Pokemon editions, and that's cool in my book. 2) Incog is using a lot of herrings. Intentional, even. If that's the case, he's basing personas out of a consistent combination of profiles. A picture, a quote, whatever. If that's the case, then he's going to be strict regarding how he describes multiple element clues and potentially more liberal with single source clues. The Scythe/Spear difference should emblemize that. Okay, with that in mind: Lets look at der clues. 1) There are Six mafia members described. The bomb was the blocked on Ver or not set in the first place. The clues also seem to indicate that cobbler was hit once per team. There are a few conclusions which flow from this, most of them which are bad for us with respect to analysing why Ver was bombed if he was bombed. Prior cluesets normally involve the hatter blowing people the fuck up during the clues which didn't happen here, so my prediction about the bomb being blocked seems accurate and consistent. Previous clues: Moonlight rider's probably Cynan Emp's blue light killer might be 789 or amber. I didn't originally think that amber came in a blue form, but wikipedia told me otherwise. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amber If that's the case, I hate incog. Today's clues: The final paragraph, in my mind, points to nemY: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=nemY The fact that things were discovered the next day fits his profile quote, while the uproar fits his picture perfectly. The connection between someone falling and a message inciting the town to rage also fits. I really want to see other possibilities for this one, because I think this is a really elegant clue. White floating thing is either Phrujbaz or OhN. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Phrujbaz Pretty self evident. The fact that its a meadow and the fact that the guy gets a runny nose point me heavily towards the dandelion seeds over the sakura. Then again, I don't live in an area with cherry trees so I don't know how they work outside of anime. The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessman Basically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though. And last but not least: Mystlord. THERES A GUY ON A ROOF AGAIN, WHO'S STANDING IN FRONT OF A LIGHT, HE KILLS SOME PEOPLE. DERP. Hm I didn't consider that BC might have been hit twice. That would actually make sense, and it kind of kills my theory on religion + sphinx. Oh well. Regardless, if BC was actually double hit, it means that BC planted a bomb on Ver, which places a bit more suspicion on Ver. However, we have established that his play is actually not all that inconsistent, so the double hit doesn't mean all too much. That said, I'll finally get around to profiles when I get home today (at school atm), so I'll just defend myself for now. I will assume that this is the story you're talking about: The third Mafioso headed toward the construction site, where workers had been trying to rush build a new town jail. From the building above, the third Mafioso noticed his target working in the guard tower across the jail courtyard. Smiling to himself, he snuck around to near the tower and took control of a crane that he had hidden nearby. Only a few of the workers noticed the large shadow blocking out the bright artificial light necessary to light the construction site. A few yelled at the workers to get out of the way, and fortunately everyone did but one. BloodyC0bbler did not notice as a miniature version of a stone sphinx came crashing down on the site, demolishing the guard tower and spraying blue blood everywhere. For comparison, I'll bring up the Day 1 story again: Panicked citizens walked out of their houses to figure out what was happening, but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside. The mayor and pardoner stopped in the town square, pausing for a moment to come up with a plan. But no plan would arise. The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square. I'll do my best to point out WHY these two stories are almost certainly referring to two different people. In the day 2 story, I see no reference to the crazed psychopathic noises referred to in day 1. There is no indication of the crazed laughing either. Instead, the killer is calm and collected. This is a fundamental difference between the Day 1 and Day 2 killers. If there is always one undercurrent that runs throughout the clues, it's that their personality, once established, remains the same. Since Day 1 killer has a clearly different personality than Day 2 killer, I'd argue that they're two completely different people. At most, you can hook me off of the Day 1 clues (although there is no mention of light being blocked - merely a rooftop killer, which is a rather weak persona IMO. Psychopathic and loves to kill? Now that's a persona.) At the very least, do not lynch me based off of the connection between the Day 1 and Day 2 clues, or I'll lose my faith in humanity and logic  .Actually, I was going to post something completely separate here regarding who I think is a good Day 2 lynch, but it'll break continuity and I feel that people's eyes will just glaze over at length, so I'll save it for later after some posts have been made. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On February 18 2010 09:42 L wrote: Yeah you're full of shit. There's no conclusive link between the rooftop killer in the day 1 clues and the actual murder. The guy was just running away from the sounds and died. Of course. Ignore me. Any justifiable reason? | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
Where are all the people that claimed that any clue analysis before Day 3 is useless? We saw a huge outcry of that Day 1, then Day 2 it's suddenly disappeared... Rather suspicious if you ask me. Even Ver has stopped espousing that. I'm also wondering why people are randomly voting without rationale. Ver pointed this out, but I'll point out that I have not seen anyone give a great justification as to why they're voting the way they are. This not only applies to me, but even more so to Bill Murray. Why are you lynching him? I haven't seen anyone in this thread point a finger to him, yet he's picking up speed and is apparently behind me in lynch votes. Oh yeah, and SC2 took away the activity in this thread. I'll expect limited participation for the rest of the game, so even if I get lynched, I don't think I'll care too much One final point: Experienced Mafia know how to blend in with the town. They want to make the town believe that they are, first and foremost, one of them. For the past few days, we've been assuming that scum make mistakes or have a different play style than the town, but this assumption should only hold true for those nooby players. As of right now, we might like to play follow the leader with our best players, but at the same time, we're in the most danger of dying to these same players. The best players in mafia would, logically, be the ones that would best blend in with the crowd. So, the list: Ver L Zona Caller redtooth Infundibulum (list compiled off of my limited knowledge of who has played before) These people should be at the forefront of our list in terms of who to keep an eye on, especially since they'll probably be playing extremely town-like. Ver has claimed his innocence (which I believe), but I think it'd be prudent to keep a watch on everyone who is an experienced player. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
 Regardless, I'm 100% sure that I'm going to be voted off by the least amount of votes ever. BM: I actually never considered that. It's possible that BC placed a bomb on a target the mafia hit, then when that person died, his bomb got refunded. Unless a DT role checks Ver and finds that he is a Veteran, then town has no way of checking whether Ver is telling the truth. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
As of right now, we have 45 players remaining. 39 players have voted. So besides me, 6 people will get modkilled tonight. Rofl. 7 people out of the game in one fell swoop unless in the next 10 minutes people start voting. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
Please remember that we have 2 mafia families. Keeping that in mind, whoever a mafia accuses is not cleared in any way if he flips red. The suspicion level remains the same. Ultimately, you'll end up getting little information off of a correct lynch in a game like this with 2 families. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
Much love people, and shame on all of you for making everyone read so much. Anyway, I would explain my list, but I'm dead now, so I'll leave that interpretation up to you guys. Too long of a death post. Bye! Off to better and greener fields for me. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
GJ guys. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
.What will town do? Who knows.... | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
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