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On February 16 2010 07:55 Mystlord wrote:There's just so many useless posts that I'm having trouble picking through it all... Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 07:15 Iaaan wrote:On February 16 2010 06:57 d3_crescentia wrote:On February 16 2010 06:28 L wrote:
Nikoner, not killing someone day 1 is generally a box of dumb. Even if it makes me look bad, its better to have 100% confirmable information for the town to work with regarding associations and whatnot.
My only fear is that ZERO people have pushed back against my claim against emp, and a number of people have tagged along well after i took pains to make it clear i wasn't dropping the accusation. Either one of the mafia teams is using him as a sacrifice to get, say, ver, to look good by supporting my position, or emp is green/blue and afk like a moron. Given his vote, it would seem that he isn't afk, which leads me to believe that killing him will at least give me some information. I'm actually more worried about how much information regarding clue interpretation for this game I can glean from a red or green flip than anything else.
Like i said; Grow some fucking balls. L, I'll nibble... only a bit. The clues we have regarding Emp are that his name has links to light, fire and heaven, but it seems to me that "thinking that an angel had saved the town" is more a manner of speech; a being masked by light is not necessarily the same as an angelic being. Consider BloodyCobbler's profile - plenty of blue-ish light in there, and it seems that he was eager to set you up as super-eager to lynch Ace. I'm curious as to why no one's focusing on the hyena-laughter/psychopathic noises. Madnessman feels pretty red-herring to me, but who else could it be? To add onto why empyrean might not be the best choice; no one is defending him. If he were mafia, him family wouldn't want him dead, it doesn't seem like sacrificing him would really benefit his family. You would think that if he were mafia, at least someone would try to defend him. It could be a calculated sacrifice. If town is convinced that someone is mafia, mafia would be unwilling to put up a strong defense of that person without seeming scummy. We might see a light defense though. Also, there's just not that much to defend for him. He hasn't spoken one. freaking. word. As for my profile pic, nothing to say. It's a solid connection to the clues, and I won't blame you if you end up lynching me based off of that. Oh, and another point about Empyrean... Where do we go from his lynch? Are we just lynching to help out the other mafia family or what? I might be a bit ignorant in this, so I'd like to get this cleared up before I'm fully on board with the Empyrean lynch. It seems more like a dead end to me. If he truly is mafia, why not let a mafia family waste a kill on him?
The one thing that makes me hesitant about lynching you on clues is that there are so many elements from the scenario.
1) A spear
2) Laughing psychoatph
3) Fire
4) Rooftop
5) Moon
6) Shadows/darkness
etc. etc. etc. etc.
With that many red herrings, it's possible it was written to throw false suspicion on you. However, imo, speculation about Incognito's thought process in writing these or why he placed what where isn't helpful. Only Incognito and possibly flamewheel know what the thought process is in drafting these clues, we can only speculate on the clues themselves.
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I still don't understand how playing poorly makes you seem innocent redtooth, or why people would want to give you pardoner over pretty much anyone else.
I went hard on emp for more than 1 reason. One reason was that I actually liked his clues more. The second was that I figured if I let up on Ace and you, you'd both do dumb shit.
looks like i was right!
Ace recently claimed that he hasn't done anything day 1 because he's been fearful for his life. This is disputed in 2 ways: First his defense wasn't a defense. It was a dismissal. He didn't even bother entertaining the argument on the merits. Second; since removing pressure on him, Ace hasn't 'stepped up' so to speak. No positive suggestions, nothing. I'm pretty sure other players have picked up on this too, especially when Ace's own argumentation predicts that path.
Redtooth, similarly, keeps overtly claiming his innocence and is now trying to make a play for the strongest elected role by virtue of being a half loser. Why are people voting for you in the first place? Because you made a banner and readily admit that you jumped into an argument without actually looking at what its about? You pretty much admit that you were going to enter a shitstorm, but have done interesting things since then:
1) First you claimed that clue analysis was useless without looking at the clues
2) Then you stated that you hadn't actually looked at the clues
3) Then you backed out of the argument stating that you were swayed by my positions
4) In the past few pages you've gone back to attempting to shit on clues.
So it seems like your initial acceptance of my argument was bullshit. Either way, you stink. You stink really, really hard.
I'm still going to kill Emp 100%, but you two aren't even remotely close to obviously innocent. Vote chez into pardoner; if he's lying about being a DT, we'll know when the results of his checks come back.
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On February 16 2010 07:55 Mystlord wrote:Oh, and another point about Empyrean... Where do we go from his lynch? Are we just lynching to help out the other mafia family or what? I might be a bit ignorant in this, so I'd like to get this cleared up before I'm fully on board with the Empyrean lynch. It seems more like a dead end to me. If he truly is mafia, why not let a mafia family waste a kill on him?
With this logic, you're saying the town wants to do nothing and let the mafia do all the work.
Basically, if we know someone is mafia we're going to kill them. Sure, the other family wants to kill them too, but the goal of the town is to take down as many mafia as possible as soon as possible to reduce their KP. We only need to worry about a mafia family winning once one family is reduced to the other family's KP.
Besides, if we don't kill people that we think are mafia, what else are we supposed to do with our lynches?
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On February 16 2010 07:56 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 07:44 redtooth wrote:On February 16 2010 06:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Spamming the thread full of what shit? Posting an objective compilation of everyones arguments? Compiling voting history? Defending myself when redtooth and Ace accused me of being mafia? Finally getting Bill Murray to justify his statements? Don't put me on the same level as BM TT___TT
I guess for the time being Empyrean is our best bet. Ver did a great job of pointing out the inconsistency in his pro-town/mafia behavior from past games and the clue connection is just very very very very strong.
Redtooth did a decent job of defending himself, or at least why it doesn't make sense that he and Ace are both in the same mafia family. His argument for him and ace not being in different mafia families doesn't make sense. "Why would mafia defend a mafia from another family/not mafia"
Unless he wanted to discourage clue analysis because he fears it will hurt his mafia family, or wanted to defend Ace because regardless of Ace's role his argumentation is successfully dividing the town. If redtooth is mafia, he has no way of knowing Ace's role anyway, so saying "i wouldn't defend another families mafia" makes no sense because he doesn't know who those people are. I really doubt the mafia are going to ONLY defend one another, look what happened when I got lynched in the last game. By analyzing who I defended/supported/whose clues I ignored the entire rest of the mafia family was caught.
I'm not accusing you of being mafia redtooth, I'm just pointing out that the argument falls short.
I'm voting for L because so far his arguments have been extremely consistent, he's been trying to get the town moving/discouraging waste posts, and providing excellent clue analysis. Redtooth shouldn't have a problem with this, don't you want L as the other elected role anyway? you're right. actually that's exactly what i want you to do. i want L as mayor and i want to be pardoner. no vigilantes means pardoner is very very powerful if he is mafia. as for my argument in why it's sort of illogical for ace and me to be mafia in separate families is because consider the alternative: i could have silently held back and not brought attention to myself instead of being in the middle of controversy between the town. knowing previous games, L vs Ace was going to become a shitstorm whether i stepped in or not. instead i chose to argue a point, blew my top (admittedly more than a few times), and got into a position where my alignment was pretty damn clear. and if Ace isn't on my team (which would be the case if i was mafia and he wasn't in my family) then i would want him dead regardless of what role/alignment he was. and guys i've said this before but i genuinely believed L was full of shit. now i only think he is half shitty but i've expressed my disdain for day 1 clues enough already. so it's not about mafia ONLY defending each other. it's about a mafia risking his own neck to defend a good player that's not on his team. THAT is something that doesn't make sense. so if it doesn't make sense then that means i'm not mafia. yay we are finally caught up. Fair point, now that is a good argument. Why are we assuming day 1 clues are bad based off previous games? There are 20 mafia. It's highly unlikely that mafia will be getting 6 kills a night, I'd say 4 MAYBE 5 is more likely. Why? 1) Overlapping kills. The mafia are simply going to hit the same targets. Let's say, for example, Player X is green. He's been painted red by a lot of people and thus might be hit by both families. This could happen with anyone who was painted red but is not mafia of either family. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if even 2 kills overlap. 2) Smart medics. While mafia might avoid really big targets early on because they will be protected by medics, medics who are able to anticipate mafia goals will help reduce kills. With 20 mafia, let's assume we get 5 hits a day. We don't see overlapping clues until DAY SIX DAY SIXIf everyone feels uncomfortable with Day 1 clue analysis just based on previous experience, I guess there isnt really anything I can say. But let's please not ignore clues on Day 2. If someone makes an accusation based on clues at you, provide an alternative. Simply saying "day 1 clues are trash" isn't enough, especially when you aren't addressing the point of just how many mafia there are in this game and how strong clues need to be. Also redtooth, I'd like you to clear something up for me. I found a mildly disturbing inconsistency in your arguments. While L was painting Ace red based on clues you said clue analysis on day 1 is trash; that's fine. You also said the clues pointing to ace specifically were shaky and not well thought-out. Then merely a few posts later you said that the clues pointing toward Ace were so obvious/numerous he can't be mafia. Was there a change of heart here? what happened?
Man your so wrong about the overlapping clues thing. If we dont see overlapping clues before day 6, it is because the mafia only hits the town. And that is not realistic.
The mafia hitting 1/3 each lynch seems realistic if not to low to me. Then we have 6 dead by day 3. And already overlapping clues. Altho the mafia would prolly have overlapping hits.
But my point still stands. We will see overlapping hits WAY before day 6, and if we dont we're allready doomed cause we've lost half our town 
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Wow, with all the heated feelings and their useless associated posts, maybe it's better to play in a game without such so-called tl mafia vets.
Anyways, I have posted before the game started about the game mechanics and with further thinking now that I have my town role (yay?) as well, the more I solidly believe that town members have relatively low impact on the game compared to mafia. Even if the mafia hit entirely randomly, each hit has initially a 10/41 chance of hitting their target, so after 3 kills, the expected amount of mafia dead is almost 1, for one family. A random lynch on the other hand will more likely than not hit a fellow town member, so the town's ability to advance towards their own objectives is even less than the mafia families' abilities to advance the town objectives. So each night the town probably won't kill a mafia, while each mafia group will likely kill one of the other. It's futile, really.
This is very unlike a normal game of mafia where the town has to rely on the lynch to win - other than individual nightkilling town members which usually have limited powers, only the lynch can advance them to their win condition. In this case it's not true - the lynch is a sideshow to the killing powers of each mafia family.
So you say the town can try to analyze behavior or clues to help pit each mafia family against each other. Sure. Except that the mafia members can do this as well, and have a much easier time of it, since they have more information than we do. While all of us read the same posts, we as town members need to try to puzzle out two different mafia groups, and each mafia group only has to puzzle out one. Each mafia family already has half the puzzle done for them, while us as town members need to figure out both halves at once, somehow. Actually, I would even suggest that the best play for the mafia should be to just vote randomly or close to it for the lynch just to not reveal information to the other group, since the power of the lynch is so weak compared to the mafia nightkill, especially early on. Anyone the mafia suspects of being on the other team can just be killed with their nightkill, rather than having to vote as a group and possibly reveal themselves to utilize the lynch. The mafia's best plan is to encourage posts so that the other group slips up while giving away as little as possible themselves.
So what about the town? Like I said - we should try to point out mafia for the other family to kill - but they already have a better angle to do this than we do. We should try to stay alive - sure, but they aren't even trying to kill us unless we're really digging after them, so perhaps it's even better to stay passive. And finally, we need to help one mafia family if the other is too successful. To be honest, this is the only aspect in which the town can really make a difference to their own fate. The thing is, if one mafia family is doing much better than the other then it's likely that this family is also doing much better in discussion, since the losing family had no better luck than the town in analyzing them, while having MORE information than the town. In this game us town members only serve the purpose of being shields that the mafia families can use to hide from each other.
Everyone shouldn't analyze behavior the same way they do in a regular mafia game, because the objectives of the town and each family are entirely different from a regular game. The elected roles are even more important for the mafia than a normal game because these players are protected from the shots of the other group.
Each mafia family of course would like their opposing family to shoot town members instead of scoring successful hits, so look out for accusations that end up framing town members. But whatever. Right now as a town member, I'll just watch to see which family scores hits and then try to help the losing family as much as I can.
The worst situation for the town is if both mafia families suck and both kill a lot of town members. Then the town is far less likely to achieve a win while the mafia families are still relatively at the same distance towards their own goals. But all of this is not under a town member's control - so it's not something I can worry about, since it's not something we have control over. The town has a much better chance of winning if both mafia group are good at finding the others, but still relatively equally matched. The fate of the town is more in the hands of the other parties than in our own.
To the players who are contrasting my behavior from the previous game (and to the mods): It's unfortunate but since in this game the goals of each party are entirely different from a normal game of mafia, the best way to play is also different. Town members shouldn't be relying on the lynch to win until only in the late game, if it gets to that - and thus being passive is better. And since the mafia which want to pretend to be town members should be playing more similarly - the best play right now is to either to lay low, or to spout garbage while not contributing anything useful. And since I don't have it in me to do the latter, I've decided to go with the former. The town really only should step it up once the mafia families become unbalanced. I still think that the game mechanics aren't that great for the town: not in terms of each group's chances to win, but in terms of how much impact members of each group actually have in the outcome of the game. Hopefully after the game a better version of this kind of setup can be discussed, such as a lower member count and killing power for each mafia group, but bonus killpower the night after a successful kill, to encourage mafia vs mafia while still retaining the mafia vs town objectives, which is almost entirely absent in this game.
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On February 16 2010 08:05 sidesprang wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 07:56 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 16 2010 07:44 redtooth wrote:On February 16 2010 06:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Spamming the thread full of what shit? Posting an objective compilation of everyones arguments? Compiling voting history? Defending myself when redtooth and Ace accused me of being mafia? Finally getting Bill Murray to justify his statements? Don't put me on the same level as BM TT___TT
I guess for the time being Empyrean is our best bet. Ver did a great job of pointing out the inconsistency in his pro-town/mafia behavior from past games and the clue connection is just very very very very strong.
Redtooth did a decent job of defending himself, or at least why it doesn't make sense that he and Ace are both in the same mafia family. His argument for him and ace not being in different mafia families doesn't make sense. "Why would mafia defend a mafia from another family/not mafia"
Unless he wanted to discourage clue analysis because he fears it will hurt his mafia family, or wanted to defend Ace because regardless of Ace's role his argumentation is successfully dividing the town. If redtooth is mafia, he has no way of knowing Ace's role anyway, so saying "i wouldn't defend another families mafia" makes no sense because he doesn't know who those people are. I really doubt the mafia are going to ONLY defend one another, look what happened when I got lynched in the last game. By analyzing who I defended/supported/whose clues I ignored the entire rest of the mafia family was caught.
I'm not accusing you of being mafia redtooth, I'm just pointing out that the argument falls short.
I'm voting for L because so far his arguments have been extremely consistent, he's been trying to get the town moving/discouraging waste posts, and providing excellent clue analysis. Redtooth shouldn't have a problem with this, don't you want L as the other elected role anyway? you're right. actually that's exactly what i want you to do. i want L as mayor and i want to be pardoner. no vigilantes means pardoner is very very powerful if he is mafia. as for my argument in why it's sort of illogical for ace and me to be mafia in separate families is because consider the alternative: i could have silently held back and not brought attention to myself instead of being in the middle of controversy between the town. knowing previous games, L vs Ace was going to become a shitstorm whether i stepped in or not. instead i chose to argue a point, blew my top (admittedly more than a few times), and got into a position where my alignment was pretty damn clear. and if Ace isn't on my team (which would be the case if i was mafia and he wasn't in my family) then i would want him dead regardless of what role/alignment he was. and guys i've said this before but i genuinely believed L was full of shit. now i only think he is half shitty but i've expressed my disdain for day 1 clues enough already. so it's not about mafia ONLY defending each other. it's about a mafia risking his own neck to defend a good player that's not on his team. THAT is something that doesn't make sense. so if it doesn't make sense then that means i'm not mafia. yay we are finally caught up. Fair point, now that is a good argument. Why are we assuming day 1 clues are bad based off previous games? There are 20 mafia. It's highly unlikely that mafia will be getting 6 kills a night, I'd say 4 MAYBE 5 is more likely. Why? 1) Overlapping kills. The mafia are simply going to hit the same targets. Let's say, for example, Player X is green. He's been painted red by a lot of people and thus might be hit by both families. This could happen with anyone who was painted red but is not mafia of either family. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if even 2 kills overlap. 2) Smart medics. While mafia might avoid really big targets early on because they will be protected by medics, medics who are able to anticipate mafia goals will help reduce kills. With 20 mafia, let's assume we get 5 hits a day. We don't see overlapping clues until DAY SIX DAY SIXIf everyone feels uncomfortable with Day 1 clue analysis just based on previous experience, I guess there isnt really anything I can say. But let's please not ignore clues on Day 2. If someone makes an accusation based on clues at you, provide an alternative. Simply saying "day 1 clues are trash" isn't enough, especially when you aren't addressing the point of just how many mafia there are in this game and how strong clues need to be. Also redtooth, I'd like you to clear something up for me. I found a mildly disturbing inconsistency in your arguments. While L was painting Ace red based on clues you said clue analysis on day 1 is trash; that's fine. You also said the clues pointing to ace specifically were shaky and not well thought-out. Then merely a few posts later you said that the clues pointing toward Ace were so obvious/numerous he can't be mafia. Was there a change of heart here? what happened? Man your so wrong about the overlapping clues thing. If we dont see overlapping clues before day 6, it is because the mafia only hits the town. And that is not realistic. The mafia hitting 1/3 each lynch seems realistic if not to low to me. Then we have 6 dead by day 3. And already overlapping clues. Altho the mafia would prolly have overlapping hits. But my point still stands. We will see overlapping hits WAY before day 6, and if we dont we're allready doomed cause we've lost half our town
Huh? I said we'll be seeing overlapping hits from Day 1, for sure.
I really didn't think about that. Mafia numbers will be decreasing from mafia hits, so I guess we'll probably be seeing overlapping clues around day 4ish. It depends on how successful mafia are with their hits. However, with a number of mafia this large and the probability for there to be very few actual kills per night compared to their total KP especially early on, it's gonna be a while.
The Day 1 clues seem fairly strong and unvague to me, why not analyze them?
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Oh, and it's true that we can analyze information and present it in public, and hope that the one mafia family act on it and kill the other group. But this can make things WORSE for the town because we might inadvertently contribute to one mafia group becoming more powerful than the other, since right now we have no way of distinguishing which group a potential mafia member might be part of, if we're even correct in discerning who is mafia in the first place.
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On February 16 2010 07:53 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 07:34 redtooth wrote:
nobody else vote for me. list is fine as is. if L is mafia he doesn't get pardoner abilities. i didn't really plan on being mayor, just elected. and don't worry about chezinu. All game, redtooth, you've struck me as innocent. But it sounds like here you're pushing pretty hard for the mafia coveted pardoner seat by drawing attention to L. You are saying "better give me the pardoner seat, because L might be mafia!" - but it works in reverse too. It's hard not to question your motive for posting that maaaan what are you doing... L is the safest of the other candidates (outside of maybe BM) but he's still not overly safe. that's why i want him to be mayor. i've said the reason why i don't want ver to be elected many many many times. especially as pardoner... really what are you doing... you're giving Ver a chance to be pardoner with no reason as to why you should trust him any more than the next guy. sure he's smart and sure he's helped with some useful but really what are you doing? i've logically proven why i can't reasonably be mafia. Ver has played well, something he does whether he is mafia or not. what are you doing?
taken from the Myers-Briggs Thread (I'm an INTJ btw):
On February 16 2010 07:30 prOxi.swAMi wrote:
from wikipedia about INTJs:
"Perhaps the most fundamental problem, however, is that INTJs really want people to make sense."
Well, they should! >_< well they don't...
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Maybe you should stop taking jabs at the vets, be quiet and stop complaining?
Like it or not or whether you believe it or not most of us are better than you, and do have more experience than you. So keep it moving or take your whining somewhere else.
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On February 16 2010 08:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 08:05 sidesprang wrote:On February 16 2010 07:56 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 16 2010 07:44 redtooth wrote:On February 16 2010 06:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Spamming the thread full of what shit? Posting an objective compilation of everyones arguments? Compiling voting history? Defending myself when redtooth and Ace accused me of being mafia? Finally getting Bill Murray to justify his statements? Don't put me on the same level as BM TT___TT
I guess for the time being Empyrean is our best bet. Ver did a great job of pointing out the inconsistency in his pro-town/mafia behavior from past games and the clue connection is just very very very very strong.
Redtooth did a decent job of defending himself, or at least why it doesn't make sense that he and Ace are both in the same mafia family. His argument for him and ace not being in different mafia families doesn't make sense. "Why would mafia defend a mafia from another family/not mafia"
Unless he wanted to discourage clue analysis because he fears it will hurt his mafia family, or wanted to defend Ace because regardless of Ace's role his argumentation is successfully dividing the town. If redtooth is mafia, he has no way of knowing Ace's role anyway, so saying "i wouldn't defend another families mafia" makes no sense because he doesn't know who those people are. I really doubt the mafia are going to ONLY defend one another, look what happened when I got lynched in the last game. By analyzing who I defended/supported/whose clues I ignored the entire rest of the mafia family was caught.
I'm not accusing you of being mafia redtooth, I'm just pointing out that the argument falls short.
I'm voting for L because so far his arguments have been extremely consistent, he's been trying to get the town moving/discouraging waste posts, and providing excellent clue analysis. Redtooth shouldn't have a problem with this, don't you want L as the other elected role anyway? you're right. actually that's exactly what i want you to do. i want L as mayor and i want to be pardoner. no vigilantes means pardoner is very very powerful if he is mafia. as for my argument in why it's sort of illogical for ace and me to be mafia in separate families is because consider the alternative: i could have silently held back and not brought attention to myself instead of being in the middle of controversy between the town. knowing previous games, L vs Ace was going to become a shitstorm whether i stepped in or not. instead i chose to argue a point, blew my top (admittedly more than a few times), and got into a position where my alignment was pretty damn clear. and if Ace isn't on my team (which would be the case if i was mafia and he wasn't in my family) then i would want him dead regardless of what role/alignment he was. and guys i've said this before but i genuinely believed L was full of shit. now i only think he is half shitty but i've expressed my disdain for day 1 clues enough already. so it's not about mafia ONLY defending each other. it's about a mafia risking his own neck to defend a good player that's not on his team. THAT is something that doesn't make sense. so if it doesn't make sense then that means i'm not mafia. yay we are finally caught up. Fair point, now that is a good argument. Why are we assuming day 1 clues are bad based off previous games? There are 20 mafia. It's highly unlikely that mafia will be getting 6 kills a night, I'd say 4 MAYBE 5 is more likely. Why? 1) Overlapping kills. The mafia are simply going to hit the same targets. Let's say, for example, Player X is green. He's been painted red by a lot of people and thus might be hit by both families. This could happen with anyone who was painted red but is not mafia of either family. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if even 2 kills overlap. 2) Smart medics. While mafia might avoid really big targets early on because they will be protected by medics, medics who are able to anticipate mafia goals will help reduce kills. With 20 mafia, let's assume we get 5 hits a day. We don't see overlapping clues until DAY SIX DAY SIXIf everyone feels uncomfortable with Day 1 clue analysis just based on previous experience, I guess there isnt really anything I can say. But let's please not ignore clues on Day 2. If someone makes an accusation based on clues at you, provide an alternative. Simply saying "day 1 clues are trash" isn't enough, especially when you aren't addressing the point of just how many mafia there are in this game and how strong clues need to be. Also redtooth, I'd like you to clear something up for me. I found a mildly disturbing inconsistency in your arguments. While L was painting Ace red based on clues you said clue analysis on day 1 is trash; that's fine. You also said the clues pointing to ace specifically were shaky and not well thought-out. Then merely a few posts later you said that the clues pointing toward Ace were so obvious/numerous he can't be mafia. Was there a change of heart here? what happened? Man your so wrong about the overlapping clues thing. If we dont see overlapping clues before day 6, it is because the mafia only hits the town. And that is not realistic. The mafia hitting 1/3 each lynch seems realistic if not to low to me. Then we have 6 dead by day 3. And already overlapping clues. Altho the mafia would prolly have overlapping hits. But my point still stands. We will see overlapping hits WAY before day 6, and if we dont we're allready doomed cause we've lost half our town Huh? I said we'll be seeing overlapping hits from Day 1, for sure. I really didn't think about that. Mafia numbers will be decreasing from mafia hits, so I guess we'll probably be seeing overlapping clues around day 4ish. It depends on how successful mafia are with their hits. However, with a number of mafia this large and the probability for there to be very few actual kills per night compared to their total KP especially early on, it's gonna be a while. The Day 1 clues seem fairly strong and unvague to me, why not analyze them?
yea lol, i meant to say. we will see overlapping clues WAY before day 6. And even tho i wrote wrong you should be able to see thats what i meant.
I'm all for analyzing clues from day 1. As it helps building a suspect list, that we can narrow down with time. And it will create alot of discussions, so the good players can prolly pick up if someone fucks up and contradicts himself.
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On February 16 2010 07:56 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
You also said the clues pointing to ace specifically were shaky and not well thought-out. Then merely a few posts later you said that the clues pointing toward Ace were so obvious/numerous he can't be mafia. Was there a change of heart here? what happened? no i didn't change my mind. sorry didn't word that too well. to me the two reasons are one and the same. i thought that it wasn't well thought out because L didn't consider all the reasons i listed why day 1 clues suck and why there can't be that many clues about Ace. one of those reasons was that there were too many and were too obvious.
day 1 clues... brings out the worst in me.
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god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L.
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On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote:
god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L.
I'm not worried about him.
I'm worried about YOU.
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On February 16 2010 08:17 sidesprang wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 08:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 16 2010 08:05 sidesprang wrote:On February 16 2010 07:56 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 16 2010 07:44 redtooth wrote:On February 16 2010 06:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Spamming the thread full of what shit? Posting an objective compilation of everyones arguments? Compiling voting history? Defending myself when redtooth and Ace accused me of being mafia? Finally getting Bill Murray to justify his statements? Don't put me on the same level as BM TT___TT
I guess for the time being Empyrean is our best bet. Ver did a great job of pointing out the inconsistency in his pro-town/mafia behavior from past games and the clue connection is just very very very very strong.
Redtooth did a decent job of defending himself, or at least why it doesn't make sense that he and Ace are both in the same mafia family. His argument for him and ace not being in different mafia families doesn't make sense. "Why would mafia defend a mafia from another family/not mafia"
Unless he wanted to discourage clue analysis because he fears it will hurt his mafia family, or wanted to defend Ace because regardless of Ace's role his argumentation is successfully dividing the town. If redtooth is mafia, he has no way of knowing Ace's role anyway, so saying "i wouldn't defend another families mafia" makes no sense because he doesn't know who those people are. I really doubt the mafia are going to ONLY defend one another, look what happened when I got lynched in the last game. By analyzing who I defended/supported/whose clues I ignored the entire rest of the mafia family was caught.
I'm not accusing you of being mafia redtooth, I'm just pointing out that the argument falls short.
I'm voting for L because so far his arguments have been extremely consistent, he's been trying to get the town moving/discouraging waste posts, and providing excellent clue analysis. Redtooth shouldn't have a problem with this, don't you want L as the other elected role anyway? you're right. actually that's exactly what i want you to do. i want L as mayor and i want to be pardoner. no vigilantes means pardoner is very very powerful if he is mafia. as for my argument in why it's sort of illogical for ace and me to be mafia in separate families is because consider the alternative: i could have silently held back and not brought attention to myself instead of being in the middle of controversy between the town. knowing previous games, L vs Ace was going to become a shitstorm whether i stepped in or not. instead i chose to argue a point, blew my top (admittedly more than a few times), and got into a position where my alignment was pretty damn clear. and if Ace isn't on my team (which would be the case if i was mafia and he wasn't in my family) then i would want him dead regardless of what role/alignment he was. and guys i've said this before but i genuinely believed L was full of shit. now i only think he is half shitty but i've expressed my disdain for day 1 clues enough already. so it's not about mafia ONLY defending each other. it's about a mafia risking his own neck to defend a good player that's not on his team. THAT is something that doesn't make sense. so if it doesn't make sense then that means i'm not mafia. yay we are finally caught up. Fair point, now that is a good argument. Why are we assuming day 1 clues are bad based off previous games? There are 20 mafia. It's highly unlikely that mafia will be getting 6 kills a night, I'd say 4 MAYBE 5 is more likely. Why? 1) Overlapping kills. The mafia are simply going to hit the same targets. Let's say, for example, Player X is green. He's been painted red by a lot of people and thus might be hit by both families. This could happen with anyone who was painted red but is not mafia of either family. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if even 2 kills overlap. 2) Smart medics. While mafia might avoid really big targets early on because they will be protected by medics, medics who are able to anticipate mafia goals will help reduce kills. With 20 mafia, let's assume we get 5 hits a day. We don't see overlapping clues until DAY SIX DAY SIXIf everyone feels uncomfortable with Day 1 clue analysis just based on previous experience, I guess there isnt really anything I can say. But let's please not ignore clues on Day 2. If someone makes an accusation based on clues at you, provide an alternative. Simply saying "day 1 clues are trash" isn't enough, especially when you aren't addressing the point of just how many mafia there are in this game and how strong clues need to be. Also redtooth, I'd like you to clear something up for me. I found a mildly disturbing inconsistency in your arguments. While L was painting Ace red based on clues you said clue analysis on day 1 is trash; that's fine. You also said the clues pointing to ace specifically were shaky and not well thought-out. Then merely a few posts later you said that the clues pointing toward Ace were so obvious/numerous he can't be mafia. Was there a change of heart here? what happened? Man your so wrong about the overlapping clues thing. If we dont see overlapping clues before day 6, it is because the mafia only hits the town. And that is not realistic. The mafia hitting 1/3 each lynch seems realistic if not to low to me. Then we have 6 dead by day 3. And already overlapping clues. Altho the mafia would prolly have overlapping hits. But my point still stands. We will see overlapping hits WAY before day 6, and if we dont we're allready doomed cause we've lost half our town Huh? I said we'll be seeing overlapping hits from Day 1, for sure. I really didn't think about that. Mafia numbers will be decreasing from mafia hits, so I guess we'll probably be seeing overlapping clues around day 4ish. It depends on how successful mafia are with their hits. However, with a number of mafia this large and the probability for there to be very few actual kills per night compared to their total KP especially early on, it's gonna be a while. The Day 1 clues seem fairly strong and unvague to me, why not analyze them? yea lol, i meant to say. we will see overlapping clues WAY before day 6. And even tho i wrote wrong you should be able to see thats what i meant. I'm all for analyzing clues from day 1. As it helps building a suspect list, that we can narrow down with time. And it will create alot of discussions, so the good players can prolly pick up if someone fucks up and contradicts himself.
I agree. It seems (if anyone disagrees PLEASE state so) that the town consensus is that the lynch is far less important. Our vehicle for eliminating the mafia is going to be discussion and a great way to get that started is with clue analysis.
I really think we can find viable lynch targets through clue analysis backed up with behavioral analysis.
Regardless, the more discussion we generate the harder it will be for mafia to hide and the more obvious inactive players/"active" players saying nothing are going to become. The mafia will pick up on that and kill each other.
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On February 16 2010 08:21 L wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote:
god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L. I'm not worried about him. I'm worried about YOU.
and I'm worried about YOU.
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On February 16 2010 08:21 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 08:21 L wrote:On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote:
god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L. I'm not worried about him. I'm worried about YOU. and I'm worried about YOU.
And I'm worried about you.
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Before writing this I had 5581 posts, and you have 1585. I think something fishy is going on.
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On February 16 2010 08:26 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 08:21 Ace wrote:On February 16 2010 08:21 L wrote:On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote:
god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L. I'm not worried about him. I'm worried about YOU. and I'm worried about YOU. And I'm worried about you.
C-C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER
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Am I the only one worried about the fact that Ver, L, and Redtooth have seemed to be working together, and they're the 3 that are coming into office most likely?
I am very happy to see L and Redtooth not getting along, but they both seem to be getting along with Ver. Ver even said to me that he was voting for redtooth because he trusts him the most, but that if he had a second vote he would vote for me.... I just don't know. It seems like a load of shit to me.
The town needn't trust anyone so blindly
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On February 16 2010 08:26 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 08:21 Ace wrote:On February 16 2010 08:21 L wrote:On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote:
god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L. I'm not worried about him. I'm worried about YOU. and I'm worried about YOU. And I'm worried about you.
Y'all should worry more about the mafia than the silly repetitiveness you're pulling like you do every game :/
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EPT
