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On February 14 2010 17:28 Bill Murray wrote:
after reading your alls posts, it is actually sort of easy to put people into groups of "blind faith and teamwork" which would be associated with mafia.
the only problem here is there seem to be multiple groups
L
Chezinu
redtooth
laaan
zato-1
bloodycobbler
ver
L
Mystlord
fulgrim
in my opinion are mafia, possibly not all in the same mafia, but that's my guess
i also think that bloodycobbler is the other mafia godfather
As much as you've backpeddled as you have already, this post is still damning. You blindly list people as mafia, list off groups of people who support eachother (without actually lumping them in said groups), and claim I'm the other mafia gf. Yes youve backpeddled and said you believe L is the other one, however, that post indicates you know the identity of one GF already.
It also speaks to your lack of knowledge of my playstyle. If I was the gf, the mayoral role would never be something I would personally want, as getting a blue role that is uncheckable is moot when I can already do that.
That post either indicates you giving yourself as a mafia away, or that you really need to learn on how to structure your mafia game posts to now get yourself firmly on radars.
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I should also add, if you believe that the mafia would elect me godfather, when i'm trying to get an elected position + a vet player who would most likely be killed if I didnt get the mayoral or pardoner position quickly, your not thinking. Let alone that the mafia team would elect me less than 24 hours into the game.
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On February 15 2010 01:12 d3_crescentia wrote:
Also, why is BM pointing out who could/couldn't be GF right now, when it's a fact that GF is decided before the END of Day 1?
Someone has seen the light
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annd just realized its time for work, be back in like 6ish hours, possibly 7
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On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely.
It is an important point.
However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done.
Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people.
Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B.
As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone.
Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not.
Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation.
Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc...
Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now.
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On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though.
Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc...
As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth.
Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour
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Although out of character from his last game, its something to be noted, but not 100% on.
However, those who are spending more time lurking than posting. I recommend starting to post, as inactivity, or just voting will get you noticed for all the wrong reasons.
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On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments.
I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks.
Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow.
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Caller the issue with your plan is getting ahold of a real dt. Ideally yes, the town circle is formed by the bgs who are the only 100% for sure role when checked. You first need the mayor to get in contact with a dt, you also need to hope to god that not all bgs are red, hope the dt doesnt die, etc...
Once the dt has done his job, the circle is formed and the fun begins. Getting it started is the hard part.
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On February 15 2010 09:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:32 meeple wrote:On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. I sorta agree... I got caught in this type of trap myself, where I so firmly beleived in tredmasta's guilt based on what I thought was a strong clue and it turned out he was a vigilante. I see the clue connection, but I'm wary of the level of conviction you have in it. As mafia in the previous game, I was aware who that clue referred to, but I was surprised you thought tredmasta was a stronger connection than flamewheel91. But L has said many times he is perfectly willing to consider alternatives. Ace's aggressive defense, redtooth's inconsistent and in one case completely incorrect arguments, and Ace's refusal to refute the central point of L's accusation doesn't exactly help out.
That screams out behaviourally that he is red  . He stand a very high chance of being mafia, and your point there is more reason to lynch him to me than the clues.
On February 15 2010 09:34 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. I think that while the connections could be red herrings, we should lynch whichever connection has generated the most discussion, not whichever connection links to the most irritating or inactive poster. What good does it serve us to lynch someone who is connected to the clues but hasn't created any controversy, or any meaningful argument? We don't gain any information about other players, because no other players have made arguments about them. Lynching an inactive who hasn't posted a defense, or who no one has posted in defense of, is akin to picking a lynch name out of a hat, regardless of which way it flips its not leading us anywhere.
My reasoning for wanting to avoid day 1 clues for now is basically this. Say we red herring someone, they die and flip townie, the persons defense will be "whoops my bad day 1 clues"
If he does get a red (note this could be a lucky guess or an actual link, we wont know for certain unless those "links" disappear from future posts) the town will have a sense of trust in the person that isn't neccesarily earned. Its luck.
Lynching someone off a list of inactives, or inactives that fit the themes of mafia's we have established does two things.
It removes someone from a list who was considered red,
It removes someone who isn't contributing and helps prevent mafia from hiding among inactives.
I am all for lynching someone day 1 based off behaviour, and would say that you can make strong cases based off clue accusations on why you should lynch someone (reactions tell alot). Just lynching off of day 1 clues for the seemingly strongest connection seems strained.
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On February 15 2010 09:46 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:32 meeple wrote:On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. I sorta agree... I got caught in this type of trap myself, where I so firmly beleived in tredmasta's guilt based on what I thought was a strong clue and it turned out he was a vigilante. I see the clue connection, but I'm wary of the level of conviction you have in it. As mafia in the previous game, I was aware who that clue referred to, but I was surprised you thought tredmasta was a stronger connection than flamewheel91. But L has said many times he is perfectly willing to consider alternatives. Ace's aggressive defense, redtooth's inconsistent and in one case completely incorrect arguments, and Ace's refusal to refute the central point of L's accusation doesn't exactly help out. That screams out behaviourally that he is red . He stand a very high chance of being mafia, and your point there is more reason to lynch him to me than the clues. On February 15 2010 09:34 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. I think that while the connections could be red herrings, we should lynch whichever connection has generated the most discussion, not whichever connection links to the most irritating or inactive poster. What good does it serve us to lynch someone who is connected to the clues but hasn't created any controversy, or any meaningful argument? We don't gain any information about other players, because no other players have made arguments about them. Lynching an inactive who hasn't posted a defense, or who no one has posted in defense of, is akin to picking a lynch name out of a hat, regardless of which way it flips its not leading us anywhere. My reasoning for wanting to avoid day 1 clues for now is basically this. Say we red herring someone, they die and flip townie, the persons defense will be "whoops my bad day 1 clues" If he does get a red (note this could be a lucky guess or an actual link, we wont know for certain unless those "links" disappear from future posts) the town will have a sense of trust in the person that isn't neccesarily earned. Its luck. Lynching someone off a list of inactives, or inactives that fit the themes of mafia's we have established does two things. It removes someone from a list who was considered red, It removes someone who isn't contributing and helps prevent mafia from hiding among inactives. I am all for lynching someone day 1 based off behaviour, and would say that you can make strong cases based off clue accusations on why you should lynch someone (reactions tell alot). Just lynching off of day 1 clues for the seemingly strongest connection seems strained. I don't understand your reply, does "he" refer to L or Ace and everything from "your point" onward seems like it's missing a few words
He refers to Ace.
Ace's defense of the accusations is more scummy than the accusation itself. However, as L and Ace always argue back and forth, perhaps hes just sick of defending himself from L?
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On February 15 2010 09:38 L wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. Purely around Ace? I've named Ace, Mystlord and Empyrean, and if you bothered to read anything since last night you'd know that I'm most certain of Empyrean. The fact that I spent so much time talking about Ace's clues were because other people decided to do things like you did and attempt to discredit clue analysis without actually looking at the content of the analysis itself. Once more, and its the last time I'll ask you. What specific clue link was overanalyzed? To add to the question; As a prior host, you should understand the basics of clue creation, so why did you ignore my request for specificity when you're one of the best placed players to deal with it in the face of my repeated attempt to get people to challenge the validity of the interpretation itself? Perhaps finally; Why tell other people to compile lists? You aren't a shitty player. Make them yourself. I'm pretty sick of people giving halfhearted statements like yours praising a path of action then not doing any work in that path. Show nested quote + I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link Make one. I did the majority of the work for you already. Feel free to make yourself useful.
You may have named three people, but you have centered most of your arguments around Ace, and even stated that you prefered him over mystlord (and myst was your second pick). I may have missed a post somewhere of you re ranking, however I do agree Emp is a good find. I would actually label him as the person who kills kennigit if I had to.
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Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part.
Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything.
Clue Analysis: Day 1
Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice.
Mafia A – The horsemen
“Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.”
“he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.”
“Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.”
“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”
“But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen”
“He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.”
Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant.
“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”
“but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.”
“The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.”
“However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.”
Analysis
Mafia A
I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used.
The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective.
I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found
http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651
It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote.
I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked.
The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly.
This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is
Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture.
Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad.
The third one I have linked is
Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter.
Mafia B
Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it.
Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games.
The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link.
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I also advise everyone to look at the people voting for citi.zen closely. He has not been that active, and posted very little on reason on why he should be in office, and he is easily winning position for mayor at the moment. This is insanely suspect behaviour on the voters. Much like the blind support I10f got last night, this blind support is similarly interesting.
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On February 15 2010 10:58 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 10:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
I also advise everyone to look at the people voting for citi.zen closely. He has not been that active, and posted very little on reason on why he should be in office, and he is easily winning position for mayor at the moment. This is insanely suspect behaviour on the voters. Much like the blind support I10f got last night, this blind support is similarly interesting. I could understand that he would get support from his analysis in Incog's last name, but 3 of those people: Fishball MasterDana dozko Weren't in that game, so in the very least, these people probably shouldn't blindly trust them.
Thing is, although DrH died, he did very well for the first while as well. It seems reasonable that he would get similar support from players but isn't. Blind support can critically destroy a town. People have to see how people are playing now, and compare to previous games to see habits people do as town/mafia. Not to base a vote for.
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On February 15 2010 12:21 L wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part. Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything. Clue Analysis: Day 1 Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice. Mafia A – The horsemen “Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.” “he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.” “Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.” “The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.” “But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen” “He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.” Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant. “The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.” “but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.” “The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.” “However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.” AnalysisMafia A I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used. The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective. I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote. I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked. The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly. This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture. Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad. The third one I have linked is Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter. Mafia B Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it. Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games. The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link. I have issues with your analysis of the clues for Mafia A, as you've called them. The persona you've established, specifically the 'horseman who blinds with light" is inaccurate. Not only does the horseman blind, but he is blinded himself during paragraph 2. This double take on the same theme is massive, and is pretty much the EXACT same format that was used to introduce truthbringer's chaingun. Additionally, the clues aren't clear on who jumped through the wall, but from the flow of text, it seems that it is the first horseman who does; the other stays back and laughs. I could be wrong here on two counts; it isn't certain that the horseman in para 2 is the same as the first one, but it seems odd that blindness as a theme would be repeated, no? That said, granted the ambiguous nature of which qualities are ascribed to which horseman, its entirely possible that you're 100% right regarding someone here and that Ace is the other horseman, which is something I worried about while initially looking at the clues. This uncertainty in attribution is why I think Emp is the more assured cluetell, but I'm still not really done thinking about the risk/reward profile of lynching him vs Ace granted the information disparity that we'd gain from killing one over the other I don't entirely agree with your analysis of Mafia B either; Mystlord seems like a far better candidate for the rooftop killer granted the weapon and location of the picture. The link to fire is one of those perennially used ones that leads to herrings, so I wouldn't try to go fire-> someone without other links. If you read my link to Emp, you'd know there's a fire element there too. I'm pretty certain that most of the Mafia B clues need more fleshing out before we can be accurate with them, with the exception of the angel.
My issue with mystlord being used as the rooftop killer is that you hear the sounds of gunfire. As the woman from his profile picture has some form of blade, it seems to destroy that point. I could be horribly wrong, but its my own take on it. However mystlord does link in multiple locations.
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As a note from all this nonsense. I am heading to bed, and waking up to jump on a plane. I will be back hopefully just before voting closes, but may not. As such I am going to change my vote to abstain for now as I don't really want anyone currently running to win.
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For anyone in the general know how, and medics feel free to not prot me. However, Ver has tried to guess my role, as well as actively pm people this game. Both are actions Ver rarely takes. Read earlier in the thread and you will find that he "RC'd" to BM. I will spend some time once ive showered going over his posts and analyzing him, but he is not as safe an option to prot any more than I am.
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On February 17 2010 03:07 Phrujbaz wrote:
Ver PMed me but to be honest it seemed like a good town player hunting an inactive rather than anything out of the ordinary. I have him pegged as "good player" because of it, I wouldn't make the link to "Mafia".
Maybe you haven't played enough. But Ver does not like playing mafia in Pm's typically, nor do I. Just showerd, so I will go compare his posting to previous games, but he is playing very as per his normal play.
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On February 17 2010 04:12 Versatile wrote:
i've only been able to get through the last 15 pages or so, does anyone know the page the first day post is on? there's just so much spamming going on. if it's a hassle don't worry, i can just continue to look through posts later today.
i'll wait to make analysis based on the next day's post/ what comes of this night. i hate basing analysis on clues primarily, but i haven't played with many of you so i think i determining guilt/innocence through interpreting behavior at first would be a mistake.
i would have to agree that the spamming is a serious issue. there have been some accusations made that got lost pages ago because of this, and i haven't even had the chance to read everything yet. it leads to a lack of follow up because people can just pretend they never saw it. hopefully (some) people will change their posting behavior.
First night post is day 10
first day post is page 63
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EPT
