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BloodyC0bblers's Mafia XVI
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d3_crescentia
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And thanks for running this | ||
d3_crescentia
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One night in a town of Liquiville, there came a strange event. An event of history and would lead many people to bewilderment. The sheriff Ace however was on the case. Journeying to the docks by the beach, he answered the cries of a persons shriek. What he found however, was a trail of blood. Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide. Rushing to the persons aid, he turned the body and knew it was grave. A quick check of the pulse, and he knew it was done, L would fail to see the coming sun. Picking up the body, he turned to make his way back to town, and failed to see the figure step behind him. With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground. His mind raced towards the possibilities of what happened, and he reached for his gun. But before he could begin, the figure drew overtop of him and the sheriff was done. Across town in his mayoral office, vx70GTOJudgexv sat at his desk. He was busy signing new laws for the town when he heard a crash outside his door. Getting up and exiting into the hall, he began to search for the sound. As he explored the nearby rooms he moved back to the hall and made his way back towards his office. It was then that he saw something on the ground by the window at the end of the hall. Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. The mayor vx70GTOJudgexv cried out, and crumpled dead to the floor. When the town awoke from their slumber, they found the three bodies lying in the town square. Knowing that they were not safe, they began to hold an electoral race. It was here that the town began to be reshaped. The lines that are bolded are written in prose. The lines that are not make some attempt to rhyme. I feel that the prose lines contain the clues, though it could be the other way around. For the most part, I agree with no_re's preliminary judgments - the broken flower vase, the "quick attack" - though I think that we're going to need more analysis overall to figure things out. Also, there's that bit about the cave by the shore... more in a later post. Truthfully, though, I think we'll end up learning a lot more about people once elections are underway. | ||
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Also, I left this part unbolded: When the town awoke from their slumber, they found the three bodies lying in the town square. Knowing that they were not safe, they began to hold an electoral race. It was here that the town began to be reshaped. As they aren't sentences written in rhyme. We should probably do clue checks on whatever we have on the first night. The flower vase is a pretty outstanding clue as it stands. I'd like to see, though, what the bodies themselves can tell us - Judge's death is directly related to a rush of air. On January 20 2010 17:19 XeliN wrote: Also I put myself forward to run for election. Considered not doing as I have a survival instinct and don't want to have too much attention drawn to myself at an early stage but in all honesty I think i would be a good choice for either of the roles. You do realize that if you're voted Mayor/Sheriff you'll be immune to any hits while your bodyguards are alive? Seems that if you have a survival instinct it would be the best way to live the longest... the problem is just in convincing other people to vote for you. | ||
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On January 20 2010 20:58 RoyW wrote: And what's general day 1 voting etiquette? Do we wait to last minute, because it seems as though it's pretty much going to be a wild guess. Days last for 48 hours... there's plenty of time to discuss. I don't like the idea of voting for people simply based on how hard they say they're going to try. | ||
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On January 20 2010 21:19 d3_crescentia wrote: After looking through all the profiles, the only one that seems to be of remote interest is haster27's map of South Korea which could be linked to the shore in a rather convoluted way. And by this I mean his profile. Still a long-shot by any means; clue checks would be a better thing to think about. | ||
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On January 20 2010 22:31 XeliN wrote: Updated profile as it was quite barren and so kinda difficult in the clue department, hopefully all the others mentioned as having no info to go on for clues will do the same. Profile edits are illegal after the game's started. =/ | ||
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We need someone who's rational, non-inflammatory and persuasive enough to be an elected official. We also need someone that is willing to spend the time not only listening to what others have to say, but also critically developing their own reasoning outside of what is said in the thread. I am active, logical and obsessive enough to get to the bottom of this. | ||
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On January 20 2010 23:24 XeliN wrote: Also to carry on the spirit of openess, assuming a player cannot vote for himself for candidate, I will be voting for Fulgrim (as of now, more people could come forward and I might change my mind) I liked his post and also Quickstriker immediately questionined him str8 after the post. The reason this has influence on my descision is because I will say plainly I am exceptionally suspicious of Quickstriker at this moment and so going with a hypothesis that Quickstriker is Mafia, it makes Fulgrim very unlikely to be mafia as they would hardly criticise their own This is simply a hypothesis, I am not claiming quickstriker to be mafia I am however very suspicious of him at the moment and look forward to him posting more. Yeah, players can't vote for themselves. Votes should go in the vote thread, though. | ||
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On January 20 2010 23:54 dozko wrote: I've just seen this but is it not strange how d3_crescentia posts that he does not like to vote for people who simply say they'll try hard, but afterwards posts his own candidature where he says basically the same thing he slated a few posts ago, except its sugar coated with some pointless characteristics listing, which can by no means be verified. I like to shower myself with compliments. If you took offense to that, then I apologize. Two things: I don't think QuickStriker is mafia, but I'm not 100% sure. His posting behavior is pretty similar to the last game he played in. I do think, though that he has the right idea - we should investigate and dissect whatever clues we have right now for the DTs to check at night. In one of my earlier posts I recommended checking the bodies, especially since there weren't two but THREE deaths. We don't know how the first person died, and that in itself might be a clue. | ||
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~OpZ~ - TL Mafia II, III JoxxOr - TL Mafia II, Ace's Mafia World decafchicken - TL Mafia II, III l10f - Pyrry's Mafia Game Fishball - a lot of them (II, III, V, VII, and more) QuickStriker - TL Mafia VII I know there are plenty of people who have played mafia with relatively smaller postcounts. I'll come up with those as soon as I feel up searching through 29 more names. At any rate, these are people with posting histories that we can maybe sort of guess about their posting history/behaviors. Also... a discrepancy (for the lulz, I'm guessing): + Show Spoiler + Oh decaf, you... person. | ||
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On January 21 2010 02:01 RoyW wrote: I know it's too soon, but it seems crazy that someone who is mafia could be that prominent in his posting. He has about 15% of posts in a 34 player game. Which is one of the reasons why I don't believe he's mafia despite what other people think. Also, our game has been relatively slow in comparison to the other one. On January 21 2010 02:06 haster27 wrote: First day clues should NOT be used to lynch a person unless the day progresses, so that they correspond with the other day's clues. Moreover, I am really wary of the fact that two obvious clues pointing to single individual appeared within a single day. That is generally sign of the unintentional red herring. I don't really see two clues pointing to the same person, because I don't believe that there's anything concrete about our discussion of these clues except wild conjecture. no_re has given us the best (if not only) analysis of what he thinks the clues mean. My opinion is that we should try and figure out what parts of the clues are the most suggestive and clue check those. There will be a lot more information to deal with once day two comes. The other problem is that we haven't seen much activity as of yet, and so it's hard to hold a discussion when there's only two-three isolated people participating at one time. As for lynching... we should lynch whoever we reason out seems to be most likely mafia. We can't really do that without higher participation, though. | ||
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On January 21 2010 02:15 tree.hugger wrote: In games of Mafia, there are degrees of activity. These degrees of activity would persist no matter what roles people got, and since roles were randomly assigned, suggesting that 'Poster A' is mafia because he posts too much is ignoring the fact that 'Poster A' would've contributed significantly anyway, as they're experienced with games of mafia, and comfortable playing any role. What instead is more important are deviations in posting patterns and word choice. These will lead us more surely to the mafia. This not to say that anyone is or isn't mafia, it's simply a note of caution. We shouldn't go about lynching our most active and productive members, or else who's going to go about finding the clues? The reason I announced my candidacy for sheriff/mayor is that I have the objectivity and patience to not consistently make ridiculous judgments. I like the way you think. | ||
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On January 21 2010 02:30 tree.hugger wrote: Get used to seeing this, this is excellent. Taking this in a vacuum, note that outright denial is always deemed suspicious. If this had started with personal attacks against the accuser, and then vehement denials, they'd be headed off the gallows immediately. This post pulls off a clever switch. It acknowledges that the poster could be mafia, in fact it refuses to debate the point entirely. This is clever, because the easiest people to decide to lynch are those who put up the biggest fight. By conceding the point immediately, this post makes it very hard to take issue with his character. But it does, in fact, defend itself. Quite strenuously at that! See how swiftly it moves on to plant the seed of reasonable doubt in the mind of the reader, by lecturing us on the hazards of killing someone who is not mafia. Of course, the chances of randomly killing a mafia are greater than killing the medic or the detective, but since the chance exists, the post abuses the probability of first decision. Moreover, the post actually then outright implies that the poster is a medic or detective, something that (to me, in my experience) seems to almost ludicrously eliminate the poster from occupying either of these roles. Few people would ever be so careless with their positions if they actually were that position. The final point of interest in this post is a corollary to the first clause. I'd call the technique 'martyrdom' because the poster professes to not mind dying if only to prove a point to all the noobs in this game. Of course, there are a mix of veterans and noobs here, and of course, the poster is playing to win. But by offering himself up for sacrifice, the poster knows full well that we will not pick such low hanging fruit. The post then, protects the poster by doing the exact opposite of what you might expect, by actually encouraging critics of the poster. Be wary of these. Positive-emotion trading aside, I'd also like to point out that we should be wary of you for kindly analyzing the thought process behind this post. I'm glad we can all be intellectual here. | ||
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On January 21 2010 02:35 QuickStriker wrote: So far, the clues that are wrapped up and given for each death that gives possible leads are the following: 1. d3_crescentia's suggestion of how no description on the first guy's death is a clue. I fully endorse this idea and took it to further saying it can possibly be someone who has a blank profile, giving from the list I had last page. Xelin is also a possibility just to point out that he modified his profile and added stuff in AFTER I made that list yesterday of blank profiles. I don't believe this is exactly the case. Yes, there's no mention of how the first person died, and that may be a clue in and of itself. The locale may be enough of a clue to tell us something substantial as well, as it wasn't written in rhyme. | ||
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On January 21 2010 03:03 SagaZ wrote: About the intention of not lynching anyone on the first day, well if i read the rules correctly, I don't think it's an option cause the mayor HAVE to choose some1. So, I would like the election candidates to say who they plan on lynching if they get the mayor and why. There's alot of time before the election happen, so I think that the mayor should choose the least active person to lynch at the time of the election. Why? because I think that mafia memebers should play quietly in the begining, not all of them, but a good part of them hae to stay hidden and not give away clues. There is also the risk of getting a green/blue. Now, I think that the risk of getting a blue with this method is less likely than getting a green or a red. Blue roles should be considered more exiting by new people, getting them to post more often. If you're green, on the other hand, well, you don't feel that exited anymore so you're less likely to post. Now, if we're unlucky and get an inactive blue, well.. the guy was inactive anyways so it's not that much of a big deal. In mafia case, picture this, you're new to the game, and you got the red role, the bad guy, what you're going to do? first, my guess would be some sort of cooperation and organisation starting between the members to decide the ways of action. And like I said, you will try not to give clues or get people to know you too soon. Of course there will be some loudmouth, probly some1 running in the elections for instance but the majority should be moderatly quiet. Of course, it would be preferable to lynch a mafia of day1 but, let's face it, with so few clues and the lack of material posted we're not going to find one without a hudge stroke of luck. Now if the candidate opt for this guideline, i recomend observing closely the post after his anouncement. My guts tell me that mafia memebers should be lurking this thread quite alot (you're exited about being a bad guy, but you can't say too much, but since you're exited you're still actively checking the thread) and would try to avoid a first day lynch by sudenly posting more. Even if there are not alot of a priori deductions, the candidates making some strong statement would shake the game a little and alow for more material to work with. Also, when some1 die, do we get to know his role? Yes, when someone dies, we get to know his role. For a while I also entertained the thought of lynching the most inactive, but in truth it doesn't really serve us altogether that much. Sure, we don't really lose anything if we hit a blue/green, but we really don't gain anything either. To be fair, I don't think we really have a choice either, so lynching the most inactive seems *safest*... I just don't see much of a benefit unless we get really, really lucky. Also, it's possible that the mafia knows this line of thought and would be active posters. In one of the previous games, the GF had wormed his way into a trusted circle of blues and avoided detection until nearly the very end of the game. If our DTs aren't at work figuring out who the clues point to (and convincing us while they're at it) then everything we have up to this point is wild conjecture based on whether or not people rub us the wrong way. | ||
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On January 21 2010 03:12 XeliN wrote: heh Sagaz interesting you raised that as I was just outside having a ciggarette thinking over the things in this thread and how there have already been claims made, suspcions cast e.t.c and was thinking it might be extremely intelligent for the mafia as a whole to simply not post much, rely on us creating so much confusion amongst ourselves that they do not need to try to provoke it or develop it. I don't agree that we ought to lynch the person who has posted least in any way though and am also inclined to think that the mafia have not adopted this strategy of just letting the town fuck it up for themselves. Its worth considering however as it would be quite an intelligent ploy and also a kinda interesting social experiment ^^ Maybe... but not necessarily. We get to lynch one person per day; they can kill up to three people currently (or do they have to? I'm operating under the assumption that they don't have to kill anyone if they don't want to). It's possible that the first lynch will hit a blue role and screw it up, but it shouldn't be an unwinnable situation. If the mafia refuses to kill people, then we can do the same and refuse to lynch as our DTs do extended checks on the clues we have. I think the mafia *has* to try kill people to keep us occupied. Now the real issue is if we can reason through things properly... | ||
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On January 21 2010 00:55 d3_crescentia wrote: Checking up on people with large postcounts for veterancy using the search feature... ~OpZ~ - TL Mafia II, III JoxxOr - TL Mafia II, Ace's Mafia World decafchicken - TL Mafia II, III l10f - Pyrry's Mafia Game Fishball - a lot of them (II, III, V, VII, and more) QuickStriker - TL Mafia VII One more to add to this list that I initially overlooked... iLoveKT has also played before, in TL Mafia XII at the very least. | ||
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On January 21 2010 03:47 dozko wrote: With regards to the first murder (L's) why is it people have so hastily concluded there are no clues? To my eyes we have references of docks and tide i.e. sea/ocean, which might be a clue pointing towards Fishball Also "Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide." There is a player called softer These may be a bit too straightforward, but surely they are worth some consideration? Also since both of these guys have yet to post; it will be good to hear their opinions on the matter. Thanks for the enlightening post. I didn't mean to say that the first murder contained zero clues, just that there was nothing as far as manner of death goes. At the same time, I simply wasn't picking up on things. As for water-related things, there's also drinking. What makes me doubt, though is that the section is written in segments of both prose and poetry. My thought is that the prose would indicate what the real clues were, so you might be right about the tender-softer connection. Of course, I could be completely off-base with the poetry/prose thing, so... | ||
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On January 21 2010 04:36 dozko wrote: Hm i dont know its hard to put your finger on anything this early, especially with only a handful of people posting. Also Im no writer but to me the "poetry" sections include rhyme in a very haphazard manner. I mean isn't there meant to be some sort of consistent structure to it ? Well, I mean there are lines that rhyme and then there are lines that do not. I'll look at the structure in a bit. | ||
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On January 21 2010 05:44 XeliN wrote: Our Mafia game is so inactive compared to the other one, its a shame rlly. I am going to take a nap and see if more people are active in the evening. Maybe the mafia won't have to do anything if the majority of our game is inactive (including DTs) so we're forced to do stupid random lynchings -_- | ||
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it would be fun if a cross-thread mafia could be run in the future, where we could cross-pollinate people from different towns every now and then | ||
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Re: cross-checking your list, dozko, I haven't since iloveKT post after the Day 1 post. The post I saw was from before then. I don't think we've spent enough time on the clues or at least agreeing on whatever clues are being figured out. | ||
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On January 21 2010 18:46 decafchicken wrote: dont be silly. lynch all active members, they are obviously scum leading people away from the mafia! oh and lynch the inactive ones too, they are scum lying low maybe we should lynch you instead | ||
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The Day 1 post was written in lines of rhyme and prose. A few pages ago I've formatted the original post to show prose and poetry; there are some minor edits here and there to make that more distinct. One night in a town of Liquiville, there came a strange event. An event of history and would lead many people to bewilderment. The sheriff Ace however was on the case. Journeying to the docks by the beach, he answered the cries of a persons shriek. What he found however, was a trail of blood. Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide. Rushing to the persons aid, he turned the body and knew it was grave. A quick check of the pulse, and he knew it was done, L would fail to see the coming sun. Picking up the body, he turned to make his way back to town, and failed to see the figure step behind him. With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground.*** His mind raced towards the possibilities of what happened, and he reached for his gun. But before he could begin, the figure drew overtop of him and the sheriff was done. Across town in his mayoral office, vx70GTOJudgexv sat at his desk. He was busy signing new laws for the town when he heard a crash outside his door. Getting up and exiting into the hall, he began to search for the sound. As he explored the nearby rooms he moved back to the hall and made his way back towards his office. It was then that he saw something on the ground by the window at the end of the hall. Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. The mayor vx70GTOJudgexv cried out, and crumpled dead to the floor. When the town awoke from their slumber, they found the three bodies lying in the town square. Knowing that they were not safe, they began to hold an electoral race.*** It was here that the town began to be reshaped. The starred lines are lines that could potentially be rhyming lines. The italicized segments are things that I think could be clues, based on my own thoughts and contributions of others. My initial guess is that the prose sections are where the clues are located, and not where the lines rhyme. For the first murder, I believe we have mostly water-related clues and the cave, which could point to Fishball and drinking. There is also the 'tenderly' adverb, which dozko suggested could be softer. I believe the phrase "knew it was grave" could mean something, but since it's in a rhyme section it goes against my current theory. Still, a possibility there. The sentences with town/ground might be a botched rhyme, but I do feel that the "quick attack" should be checked out for the possibility that QuickStriker is indeed mafia. Regarding Judge's death, we have the flower vase, which points to me. ~OpZ~ also mentioned the repeated use of the word "hall," which in and of itself could be a clue. I've also noticed the use of sound-related descriptors - crash, sound, rush of air; potential connection to iloveKT as his profile contains pictures of sound waves. What I'm particularly curious about what the object that sunk into Judge's shoulder was... that should be a clue in and of itself. List of potential clues: 1. Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide. 2. he turned the body and knew it was grave (maybe) 3. With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground. 4. Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery 5. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. Does anyone have any criticisms? I'm open to suggestions. I realize that most of it is grasping for straws, but I think it's better that the DTs check *something* our first night rather than nothing. | ||
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On January 21 2010 21:42 RoyW wrote: I am new to the game, and this is my first time ever playing it. I voted for Xelin and still do, because it seems to my newbie eyes that he is obviously not Mafia. Maybe to the experienced eyes in this game, his activities are a comman Mafia-gambit, but I don't think so. I'm unsure about QS, but ultimately I think it's just an instinctive reaction to his many posts and multiple edits, so I don't know. I live in Ireland, and will mostly only be active 18.00 KST-03.30 KST. If someone could give me the PST equivalent, I will try and ensure that I am around for voting deadlines. You should post that in the vote thread then. =) 18:00KST is 1AM PST, so you're in a bit of a jam if you want to get in a last-minute vote. On that note... hey BC, can we get times in KST instead since TL auto-displays those? | ||
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XeliN, I don't understand your reasoning as to why I should be lynched. Could you elaborate a bit further? | ||
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On that note, I don't know what incarceration for a single night would do for either me or QS as the mafia KP would still remain at 3 after that. If you wanted to incarcerate us both and found only two deaths, we'd be able to know if either me or QS was mafia by checking the number of deaths (barring medic or vigilante intervention). This plan has the unfortunate drawback of using both incarcerations, unfortunately. Of course, if you become Mayor you can simply choose to lynch one of us and be done with it. | ||
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On January 21 2010 22:51 XeliN wrote: Crescentia I owe you somewhat of an apology, I jumped to conclusions about you based on very little. My reasoning was quite flawed in all honesty. I thought you might be Mafia based upon my still firm belief that QuickStriker is. You made a post saying that you do not believe QuickStriker to be mafia and didnt in my mind give clear reasons as to why and this made me very suspicious of you. Going over all of your posts now I realise the error of this reasoning. It made a snapish judgement on you based on what i deemed to be your subtle support of Quickstriker. I take back that I think you should be lynched. None of what you have posted so far is enough to make that kind of judgement. I still strongly believe that Quickstriker ought to be the first person to be lynched and he would remain my choice. Thank you for response. While I know we don't see eye-to-eye on some things I appreciate your efforts to be sincere and rational. | ||
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On January 21 2010 23:07 RoyW wrote: I take it that the first deadline is voting tonigh, then do we have a 'night break' for 24 hours, before another 48 hours to vote lynch day 1? Or am I misunderstood? Mayoral vote occurs on Day 1 and ends at 9PM PST. Mayor decides who we lynch at the end of Day 1 (not entirely clear on how this works yet). We then move onto Night 1 for 24 hours where DTs/Medics and Mafia can put in their actions, though we can continue to debate/discuss and suggest potential actions to take. | ||
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On January 22 2010 02:37 tree.hugger wrote: I was born in a hidden grove in the Scottish Highlands surrounded by chanting druids- what do you want from me? Is that why your name is tree.hugger? ;P | ||
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On January 22 2010 05:18 ~OpZ~ wrote: -_-... Quickstriker can't be trusted! That is all... I'm curious as to what your thoughts are. | ||
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And yours, for that matter. Baseless arbitrary fingerpointing without rational justification will DOOM our society. | ||
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On January 22 2010 06:06 ShoCkeyy wrote: Lol? How is it baseless. It's common sense to what XeliN is doing. It won't DOOM anybody. I'm going to laugh when you guys see that XeliN is a mafia. I wish I knew the code to make text blink so I could better convey sarcasm. But I wasn't talking about XeliN; I was asking about your post regarding ~OpZ~. While it's true we can't really trust anybody right now, and that ~OpZ~ hasn't really posted altogether too much, what are your thoughts on him? | ||
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On January 22 2010 09:11 Iaaan wrote: because of that post, pretty early on, and that's all he has really said. lol Just a small comment on this... seems like RoyW hasn't posted in the vote thread. | ||
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- Lunaticman - IplayThings - Nigol I have not checked the other thread by Plexa to see if they have confirmed their access to the forum. | ||
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On January 22 2010 10:01 d3_crescentia wrote: As of now, we have the following who have not posted after the Day 1 post: - Lunaticman - IplayThings - Nigol I have not checked the other thread by Plexa to see if they have confirmed their access to the forum. None of these have posted in the Mafia 16 thread and can be regarded as most inactive. | ||
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On January 22 2010 12:28 QuickStriker wrote: The votes in about 3.5 hours..... as of the current vote stand and if the final total vote count is what is listed above, the following things will happen: tree.hugger is #1 in vote counts so he's automatically the SHERIFF.... Fulgrim, d3_crescentia, and lan all have tied votes of a 3 way tie in between of the second position, the MAYOR.... so what might happen is a. a re-count votes, b. a whole new poll just for mayor, c. mayor-less town...... So that is our current situation. Just for heads up. 9PM PST is 12AM EST, which is in 1.5, not 3.5 hours... | ||
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10. haster27 12. drinking 14. RoyW** 25. Rainbow 28. 7Strife 32. gaizka 33. Man.Magic 34. Johnnyspazz **RoyW has expressed his support for Xelin, but hasn't done anything about it. To those who have abstained, I gladly encourage your decision to do so if your belief is firm in that none of the candidates are trustworthy enough. To those who are still undecided, you still have about an hour before elections close. At the very least I'd like to see an end to voting so we can get on with the game. | ||
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30 minutes left. | ||
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On January 22 2010 13:29 Fulgrim wrote: Ugh, hate to go to bed before the election is decided =/ Whoever is elected mayor, use your lynch wisely, and on the off-chance I am, I will use my lynch on Lunaticman, who has been inactive since we started, so we won't be losing much. It's only 24 minutes... QuickStriker brings up another good point in that incarcerating 2 won't reduce KP to 2. Whichever one of us is sheriff will have to keep that in mind. | ||
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Signing off for the night. | ||
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Well, who are you going to lynch then? | ||
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Good night. Let's hope for a good one (and by that I mean a bad one). | ||
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that's not allowed <_< | ||
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It's sad we lost Lunaticman, but he didn't do shit to let us know he was even around. Also, I find it unlikely that anyone knows anyone's role right now. If we'd elected Iaaan or someone else that was going to lynch an inactive it would have looked equally as suspicious. It's the first night. If there are any DTs left we should be plan to keep them alive and help them figure out what actions they should take. The idea lifted from the other thread - for a DT to do an early rolecheck to establish an inner circle - sounds like a good idea. Checking someone who's posted in the thread would be good. The risk of running into GF is low, but my feeling is that DT should be wary of the more active players as the GF role benefits more active mafia in the first place. Of course GF role benefits all mafia - it simply depends on what their plan is. There is also the list of clues I posted earlier up in the thread for DTs to check if they're not working on their own analysis. If anyone has any suggestions to improve it, I have added it below as well as spoilered my original post: List of potential clues: 1. Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide. (potential leads: Fishball, softer, drinking) 2. he turned the body and knew it was grave (don't know, bit of a stretch 3. With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground. (QuickStriker) 4. Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery (d3_crescentia) 5. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. (maybe iloveKT) Potential candidates for the clues have been parenthesized following the clue. Again, I would prioritize forming a trusted circle (of two) first; then I would also follow up with investigations on the more active players that have clues suggesting them like myself and Quickstriker. Of course, no matter what you decide to do, we'll have to reevaluate once Day 2 rolls around. + Show Spoiler [Clue Analysis Post] + On January 21 2010 19:31 d3_crescentia wrote: Alright, I'm going to go through this again: The Day 1 post was written in lines of rhyme and prose. A few pages ago I've formatted the original post to show prose and poetry; there are some minor edits here and there to make that more distinct. The starred lines are lines that could potentially be rhyming lines. The italicized segments are things that I think could be clues, based on my own thoughts and contributions of others. My initial guess is that the prose sections are where the clues are located, and not where the lines rhyme. For the first murder, I believe we have mostly water-related clues and the cave, which could point to Fishball and drinking. There is also the 'tenderly' adverb, which dozko suggested could be softer. I believe the phrase "knew it was grave" could mean something, but since it's in a rhyme section it goes against my current theory. Still, a possibility there. The sentences with town/ground might be a botched rhyme, but I do feel that the "quick attack" should be checked out for the possibility that QuickStriker is indeed mafia. Regarding Judge's death, we have the flower vase, which points to me. ~OpZ~ also mentioned the repeated use of the word "hall," which in and of itself could be a clue. I've also noticed the use of sound-related descriptors - crash, sound, rush of air; potential connection to iloveKT as his profile contains pictures of sound waves. What I'm particularly curious about what the object that sunk into Judge's shoulder was... that should be a clue in and of itself. List of potential clues: 1. Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide. 2. he turned the body and knew it was grave (maybe) 3. With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground. 4. Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery 5. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. Does anyone have any criticisms? I'm open to suggestions. I realize that most of it is grasping for straws, but I think it's better that the DTs check *something* our first night rather than nothing. | ||
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DT only has 3 rolechecks per game, and can't do 2 of them in a row. DT can either rolecheck or cluecheck tonight; rolecheck possibly being safer. The DTs cannot rolecheck me or tree.hugger, though I think they could cluecheck us for relation to any of the things listed above. The other thread is bristling with good ideas. Yes, it's entirely unproductive to say that this thread is less active than the other, because 1) it's an obvious truth and 2) it's not helpful. It's only slightly less unproductive to consider what that suggests for our game. Instead, we should be encouraging those who haven't spoken yet to consider the facts and reason things out. The following may seem obvious to you: I am fairly sure that the GF would not have put himself to be an elected official, because doing so would completely waste the GF's ability of hiding himself amongst the townspeople. We can then look at the electoral candidates and say that it is unlikely (though not impossible) that one of them are the GF, though one or more could check as mafia. For this matter, I am hoping we still have 2 or more DTs. I think it would be terrible if the GF was one of our failed candidates, and our last DT decided to form a circle with him. Of course, it would also be bad (but not as bad) if a DT checked the Miller. And so we come full-circle to our problem - inactivity. If a large percentage of the population do NOT vote, it gives the Mafia that much more freedom to move around in. In fact they can spread their votes around and have just enough to edge out a win supplemented by Townies who have been convinced by their arguments into following through on their overall strategy. Furthermore, if we have a Mafia mayor, it only makes their power that much stronger. I will be reconsulting my notes on last night's voting in a while for clues. I hope the DTs will rolecheck the candidates tonight, but I insist that you be wary of speaking up too loudly just yet. | ||
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Conjecture: If we have a mafia-aligned town official, she/he will not be the Godfather. | ||
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On January 23 2010 07:10 XeliN wrote: For QuickStriker i have already given my reasons in my previous posts, whilst they may be scattered among more than one I don't rlly want to repeat myself. For the sake of conciseness, I would really prefer that you did repeat yourself. I think it would be the best way to go about building a case against QS if you could quickly summarize your arguments here in a single post; that way people don't have to search through the entire thread when it comes down to voting time. | ||
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On January 23 2010 07:31 XeliN wrote: I am going out in a second, I will make a post going over all the reasons why I consider Quickstriker Mafia, citing his posts and explaining my interpretation e.t.c doing this means ransacking the entire thread so far and collecting it together in one post, so I will have it done tomorrow. Actually if i am killed by Mafia by then I won't be able to, in a hypothetical where i am killed b4 posting then plz give serious thought to lynching Quick Dozko and i would suggest Shockeyy as well. you have 7 hours T_T | ||
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On January 23 2010 08:19 toplexa wrote: Ok i just read everything. We lost a DT with bad luck. Im just wondering how important are the first mafia hits* and what is sheriff/mayors plan from now on /incarcelation?/. Adding some notes about what could be clues from day 1: "With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground. His mind raced towards the possibilities of what happened, and he reached for his gun. But before he could begin, the figure drew overtop of him and the sheriff was done" "As he explored the nearby rooms he moved back to the hall and made his way back towards his office. It was then that he saw something on the ground by the window at the end of the hall. Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. The mayor vx70GTOJudgexv cried out, and crumpled dead to the floor." As Sheriff I don't have a concrete plan for using incarceration yet. My thoughts so far are to use it on Mafia suspects in the mid/late game and checking for KP reduction as a means for checking roles. Could you go into more detail about the first clue? I'm not sure what or who this could suggest. | ||
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On January 23 2010 08:24 Iaaan wrote: And last think I can think of right now, If either the mayor/sheriff are DTs, they could tell us, because they can't be killed by the Mafia right? we have to lynch them. for any other role they could just lie (if they were the Mafia), but its not hard to prove your a DT to the public if you have protection. True, but I think the Mafia can turn this around to their advantage even if they were to lie and claim DT publicly. If a Mafia officers claims DT publicly, then they'd have to rolecheck someone. Mafia could coordinate to have one person take the hit; they would check and be forced to sacrifice a member after public announcement. All well and good for the town, except that the DT cannot rolecheck twice in a row, and would still let the Mafia kill 6 people for the time being. Then on the third night, the Mafia/fake DT would have a chance of being discovered if two DTs do the same check to be sure. However, doing so could reveal the real DT if they collaborate together and then the Mafia will target the real DT. We could then lynch the Mafia/fake DT if the evidence is conclusive enough, though it's possible that they could also make a lucky guess in checking people, and continue on another day. Secondly, if the Mafia officer claims DT and says he's doing cluechecks instead, the same thing would happen with the rolecheck above - there's no way to confirm the word that the officer actually IS a DT without outside collaboration, which would threaten to expose any other DTs we have. If we have the case that the officer actually IS DT, then for all of the reasoning above it would be dangerous to trust him 100%. In other words, it would be extremely advantageous for us to have a DT in office, but it would be extremely suspicious for them to roleclaim that publicly. Privately will be a different story, but even then I would be suspicious. Lastly, keep in mind that the Mafia are actively trying to figure out whatever OUR roles are, and they have a better chance in guessing Townie over a blue role. If in the first case they decided to not let another Mafia take the fall, they have a good chance of hitting a Townie by guessing, and again we would have to wait until Night 3/Day 4 for a double DT confirmation to be sure. It would be advantageous, yes, to have a DT in office, and I would think an active DTs would have had the thought cross their mind, even if they didn't decide to do it. I just don't think they would roleclaim so soon. This is all off the top of my head and someone could (and should try to) find holes in my logic. Day 2 clues should give us a better idea of who to lynch. I think the remaining DTs should rolecheck the election candidates - whomever they can or mistrust. | ||
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Supposing the electorate is DT, though, and roleclaims, the situation would not change much even if the DT was under no suspicion. 6 people will die in 2 nights, but there's no guarantee for that we can lynch any Mafia in that time. It's just that roleclaiming DT for a mafia candidate, under my line of thought, will likely end up with a DT death amongst those 6. Looking back upon it, Mafia-electorate roleclaiming DT is much like a stronger GF. Yeargh. | ||
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On January 23 2010 09:22 johnnyspazz wrote: wow interesting points by everyone so far. can someone explain to me what clue checking is? The DT asks if a certain line or phrase from the Day post contains a clue, and/or if it points to a particular person. This is done in private by PMs to the game host. Examples: 1) DT asks, "does the phrase "he saw that it was a broken flower vase" contain a clue?" 2) DT asks, "does the phrase 'with a quick attack' point to QuickStriker?" and the host BC will reply in PM to them. What they do with the knowledge is up to them of course... | ||
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hope this conversation goes on until MSL starts! | ||
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On January 23 2010 10:08 ShoCkeyy wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2010 09:10 d3_crescentia wrote: True, but I think the Mafia can turn this around to their advantage even if they were to lie and claim DT publicly. If a Mafia officers claims DT publicly, then they'd have to rolecheck someone. Mafia could coordinate to have one person take the hit; they would check and be forced to sacrifice a member after public announcement. All well and good for the town, except that the DT cannot rolecheck twice in a row, and would still let the Mafia kill 6 people for the time being. Then on the third night, the Mafia/fake DT would have a chance of being discovered if two DTs do the same check to be sure. However, doing so could reveal the real DT if they collaborate together and then the Mafia will target the real DT. We could then lynch the Mafia/fake DT if the evidence is conclusive enough, though it's possible that they could also make a lucky guess in checking people, and continue on another day. Secondly, if the Mafia officer claims DT and says he's doing cluechecks instead, the same thing would happen with the rolecheck above - there's no way to confirm the word that the officer actually IS a DT without outside collaboration, which would threaten to expose any other DTs we have. If we have the case that the officer actually IS DT, then for all of the reasoning above it would be dangerous to trust him 100%. In other words, it would be extremely advantageous for us to have a DT in office, but it would be extremely suspicious for them to roleclaim that publicly. Privately will be a different story, but even then I would be suspicious. Lastly, keep in mind that the Mafia are actively trying to figure out whatever OUR roles are, and they have a better chance in guessing Townie over a blue role. If in the first case they decided to not let another Mafia take the fall, they have a good chance of hitting a Townie by guessing, and again we would have to wait until Night 3/Day 4 for a double DT confirmation to be sure. It would be advantageous, yes, to have a DT in office, and I would think an active DTs would have had the thought cross their mind, even if they didn't decide to do it. I just don't think they would roleclaim so soon. This is all off the top of my head and someone could (and should try to) find holes in my logic. Day 2 clues should give us a better idea of who to lynch. I think the remaining DTs should rolecheck the election candidates - whomever they can or mistrust. The thing with this, is that Mafia won't roleclaim DT publicly. If some one roleclaims DT publicly then we can expect them to be lynched by the mafia. So that means if a mafia member role claims DT publicly and doesn't get lynched, that person must be a mafia. There's no way a DT will survive if he openly says he's a DT. Possible, but consider the following: DT could have found a medic on first rolecheck; messages medic and lets them know that they know their role. DT then announces that they are DT, but they have medic protection and don't die. My answer was originally in response to if either Mayor/Sheriff were mafia and roleclaimed DT. Generally I think it's a pretty bad idea to roleclaim DT this early in the game anyway, so... | ||
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On January 23 2010 14:30 Iaaan wrote: I think that there are 1 or 2 mafia that tried out to be elected, then 1 or 2 that are actively posting, then 2 or 3 that are lurking, and maybe 1 or 2 that havent been playing at all. But i withhold my judgement about who they are for now. Seems like a reasonable guess. | ||
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On January 23 2010 13:15 XeliN wrote: Johnny just a quesiton, if you were mayor and would definately have me Lynched BUT THEN it came back that I was a Green Townie. Theres no need to wait for day 2 clues. Lynch me now so that my innocence can put forward a stronger argument than anything I have posted yet and then take my arguments more seriously. tbh if I was the Mayor I would also Lynch me as if I am innocent you would unfortunately lose a green townie but you would also gain a wealth of information in that you could go over the events in this thread from a new perspective. The perspective that I am a Townie and come to conclusions on other peoples posts based on that. So to conclude I agree that I should be lynched. If I have done my job right then doing so can only help the townies no matter what my role is. XeliN, the Mayor has no direct control over who will be lynched on Day 2, the whole town does, by vote. The mayor has 3 votes, if you recall, and given that we have 23 members who voted yesterday (and hopefully more tomorrow from the modkill incentive) the Mayor has some but ultimately not enough influence over the town if we all choose to vote. Secondly, it is impossible to lynch you now simply because lynch voting is during the Day, not the night. The Day 2 clues will come in before we can even officially VOTE to lynch you, and I think it would be wise to at least LOOK at them for some of the 48 hour period before Day 2 ends. I am still interested to see a comprehensive post about your proposition to lynch QS and/or dozko (with yourself if you are wrong), detailing what you think suggests that they are mafia. I know you are going to be busy/asleep for some time. I think it would help our more inactive players get caught up to speed quickly, and it would help the town make a vote tomorrow. =] | ||
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On January 23 2010 16:24 Fishball wrote: You guys need to go easy on the speculation, and wait for Day 2. Most def. | ||
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On January 24 2010 09:35 toplexa wrote: ): gg GG, buddy. Hate to see you go so soon after you just joined. =[ A few points that I'd like to bring up... Fishball: I like your post, though I cannot help but notice that your current icon is a Dark Templar, who is known for hiding in the shadows and swinging blades at people. What is particularly interesting to me at this point is the phrase "performed some odd formations in the air." I agree that there seems to be a connection with the air clue and feel that this is the same person as Day 1 who killed Judge then. My suspicion lingers on iloveKT, from the following post: I voted for Xelin just so I wont be branded as inactive and maybe be modkilled. I was away for the last couple of days. Reason for voting Xelin: I dont think he can win. lol. We are currently down to 23 townies and 7 mafia. I will be voting to use a double-lynch on Day 3 and encourage everyone else to do so. | ||
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On January 24 2010 11:05 Fishball wrote: I see these "Dark Templar" references almost every game, but hey, whatever floats your boat. Keep in mind the guy with the blade was not standing in the shadows whatsoever, but was visible. I figured it'd be a common occurrence; it isn't personal at all. Like I said, what I'm more interested in is the phrase "performed some odd formations in the air" could mean, because I think that's a more substantial clue. | ||
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A brief PM conversation I had with BC. Read from bottom up: correct. They only choose who to hit. I then control who does it. That way every mafia will get used in clues as opposed to just consistantly the same people ----------------------------------------- Original Message: So getting this clear; Mafia do not have direct control over who does the killing? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: 1 kp is = 1 kill. For each kill 1 mafia will be used. 1 clue will be left by each mafia who makes a kill that night. As for which mafia are active at night are up to me. So they could be used multiple times at this point or once. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: How do mafia hits work? Does 1KP = 1 person doing the hit? If so, does that mean that though there are 6 mafia only 3 of them could be doing hits (and thus have clues leading to them)? Are the mafia forced to alternate or can the same person do a hit twice in a row? Would these generate similar clues? Thanks for your help; I really appreciate it. Problem: References to 'quick' are as vague as ever, since we don't know which mafia member could be attacking. The clues will have to be MORE telling than simply adjectives. Following is from an older game (Mafia VII) where the mafia won. BC so kindly revealed the clues and whom they pointed to: Once he had the last pile safely in the fire, he gazed up to look at his tv, only too see an uncomprehensable phrase(3clipse) before the tv exploded, killing Scaramanga in the blast As he passed the desk he noticed a weird phrase on the screen. As amber[light] looked down from the computer, he noticed a figure under the desk, and a metal glint in his hand. Two silent shots later, amber[light] collapsed to the ground, and the man fired another shot into the body’s head for good measure. (3clipse) scamp gazed up as the figure blocked the moonlight from reaching him, then he was kicked hard in the head till he died. (3clipse) And also: saw a garrote wire around Truthbringers neck (0cz3c) he let his wire fly around incognito’s throat, and with a bit of work, incognitos head was rolling along the floor. (0cz3c) And for reference, BC's explanation of how they were associated: 3clipse code, eclipses, anything with the number 3 0cz3c box, decapitation, surrender, political These are the kinds of things we should be looking for in clues. As such I'm now concerned more about the method of death and other random clues, and wondering if we can link both of the Day 1 and Day 2 clues together to see if they are suggesting the same or different people (which I believe is more of the case). Each killer will likely be distinct from each other as far as clues go. We know that the first reference to quick was simply an attack, but the second was two quick shots - which are associated with a technical drawing. We also have a mafia with a long object, a mafia with a blade (and strange motions), a person who was near a cave/shoreline, and a person associated with the flower vase. Conjecture: All of the mafia will have acted at least once by Day 3, and at least two of them will have acted twice. Conjecture: None of the killers from last night were the same from the night before. I believe that it follows that it is unwise to lynch QuickStriker currently, simply because the adjective 'quick' was used twice. We don't know how Ace died - it could have been shots or stabs or some bizarre martial arts blow, and the fact that it was quick shouldn't be as big as people are making it. One more thing: we currently have 23 townies and 7 mafia. This is a difference of 16 people, or 4 more days of killing people assuming we all hit townies each time, and that there are no vigis/medics active. Using a double lynch once will take us down to 3 days, but if we do it twice in a row (or even not) there will still be three days left. I encourage everyone to vote for a double-lynch tomorrow at the very least. | ||
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On January 25 2010 04:34 Iaaan wrote: But if this second statement is correct, then looking at the use of the word quick is invalid. But I don't think its necessarily right. I think at this point, I think we shouldn't lynch Quickstriker, but definitely don't forget about him. Yes, I don't believe it's necessarily the truth either, but I am fairly certain that many of today's clues would have referenced other mafia members seeing as there are seven of them. I think that the clues are arranged to be deliberately confounding at this point in time. | ||
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On January 25 2010 07:41 Fishball wrote: To be honest, the chances of the town winning is pretty slim. 23 players left, 7 Mafia, 16 Townies. With 2 Vigilantes and a Detective dead, we pretty much have to ace every single lynch, and Medics would have to make the right choices every night. What makes it even worse, is that BC said half the blues are inactive... You're pretty much right. As I've said before, we have 4 days left in the game if we continue using our single lynches, and 3 days even if we use both of our double lynches - but this is only speaking in terms of survival. We can maybe buy another day if the medics are successful in predicting/covering mafia hits, but they have to be 100% perfect. If we manage to hit at least 2 mafia in the next few days then by my count we should have another day on top of that. Double-lynching will give us a better chance to accomplish that, even if we lose extra townies. | ||
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On January 25 2010 07:50 Iaaan wrote: If you look at Quickstrikers profile pic, it could be a 'technical drawing,' and maybe could fit with some of the other clues depending on what anime character it is, I don't know tho. This is a stretch. I've seen the anime in question and would be more convinced if there was a chess or strategist metaphor. | ||
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On January 25 2010 08:18 Fishball wrote: I would link the "technical drawing" clue to something more technical, eg: - RoyW An enginner http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_W._Brown - Jonoman92 Profile quoting "sMi.Arcology" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arcology Just another approach you guys might want to take a look at. I remember looking up the definition of arcology before Day 2 and threw it out because it wasn't relevant to Day 1 clues. Now things have changed. I think there is a substantial connection here to either of these two players, though I feel the RoyW connection is a bit weaker. Overall I do think it's better than most of the other clue-linking attempts we've made so far. | ||
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On January 26 2010 00:04 dozko wrote: Why is everyone suddenly switching to Xelin without posting any reasons in here? Exactly what I'd like to know... | ||
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I do agree that neither QS nor XeliN merits a lynch at this point. I'd rather go for Jonoman92 or RoyW at this point in time... | ||
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On January 26 2010 02:04 RoyW wrote: There's no real indication of Xelin being Mafia, unless you take his inconsistent post frequency as some sort of tenuous link. You have been continuously pushing for his lynching without evidence, ShoCkeyy, and I don't believe that he is guilty. But based on where the voting thread and this thread are going, I can see us digging ourselves deeper by voting off Xelin and then voting off me. Add that to another 6 Mafia night kills, and we'll be left with a 15-7 ratio. (can we even win from there) I do like the direction the game is now going in, with actual review of the possible clues. I have nothing to add to what has already been assessed after last night. I wasn't around at the time due to travelling to Sweden, but I should be around much more for the rest of the week. If day 3 yields some critical clues, then yes... it's possible to win from there, as long as everyone is active. If anyone wants to know about why I voted for RoyW, it's because that BC has pulled these kinds of clues before: I know the "siege" clue was for so no fek and here's how the connection is made You go to google and instead of searching his name, "so no fek" you search "sonofek" This has 1090 results for it, but you are supposed to really search for "sonofka" which google suggests But you are not supposed to click on the first result for sonofka, but the second which brings up this page WHICH IS AN INCEST / PEDO SITE (NSFW): http://www.realedenplace.com/phpbb/viewthread.php?tid=4857 One of the users is named sonofka, and underneath their username they have a board rank conqueror. And because using the word conqueror would have been obvious, what do conquerors do? siege. Though at this point I'm 50-50 on Jonoman/RoyW. | ||
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On January 26 2010 04:53 Iaaan wrote: you have been pissing some people off ;p But for everyone voting for Xelin, if you really honestly think he is mafia, your going to have to post something alot more comprehensive that just "oh go look through the thread, there is plenty of evidence." that doesn't convince anyone. I agree with Cresentia about RoyW and Jonoman92 being possibilities, but If I vote for them at this point, my vote would be wasted since there would still only be 2 votes. Blargh, might as well. I just really, really disagree with voting either Xelin or QS and was hoping to write up a convincing argument. | ||
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the reason I'm proposing double lynches is because we have about 3 days left whether we choose to or not to lynch, and it'd be better to try and hit as many mafia as possible | ||
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On January 26 2010 08:26 Iaaan wrote: what does it mean by softer changed colors? o: Softer was not my first choice of who to kill, but at the moment I thought he was more likely then quickstriker, Xelin, or johnnyspazz it's a description of being hanged (your head turns blue/black from lack of oxygen) Actually, my reasoning is actually about the same as Iaaan's; none of the current candidates were who I'd like to lynch, and so I decided to vote for someone for who it seemed possible AND to prevent any sort of other last-minute switches from overtaking it. I was 50-50 on Jonoman/Roy after someone had posted the technical-drawing clues, but in the end I felt like my vote was simply being wasted, so I went back to my original plan. | ||
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On January 27 2010 00:24 softer wrote: Oh i died.. Just as well i suppose, really sorry about going inactive, RL hit me in the face.. GL town, go get them. Sorry man. =( I had very severe doubts that the most popular candidates at the time were mafia. I changed my vote as to prevent the softer vote from being contested - simply because at the very least it wouldn't have been a very big loss for us if he turned out to be town-aligned. | ||
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On January 27 2010 05:44 XeliN wrote: I thought lynching people without evidence is what we did? Might as well Lynch someone who has acted like a Mafia would rather than going on a vague "clue" or whatever poor logic you guys used to pick Softer I will ask you again, so you may completely outline your thoughts in your reply. What makes feel that X is mafia (where X is the name of a suspect you've listed previously)? What behavior do you find suspicious and why? | ||
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And terribly terribly sad. | ||
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2AM seems like a pretty substantial clue as well... Blargh; gonna come back to this later. | ||
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On January 28 2010 04:15 no_re wrote: The fact that Xelin was killed means he was probably right on a lot of his accusations, even though there was a high chance of him being lynched, the mafia decided he needed to be killed for sure. That's a very strange comment to make. | ||
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On January 28 2010 05:20 no_re wrote: reasons why? seems like good logic to me im annoyed. my circle of trust just got raped =[ Because it's not good logic. The mafia could have killed XeliN because he was getting too close to the truth, or because they could have killed him to throw the rest of us off. Or a combination of both - one of his list might in fact be mafia, but the rest of them could be townies. I don't believe that he was 100% correct, or even 50% correct, though I feel his later guesses are better than his earlier ones. I'm surprised that everyone thought XeliN was mafia. He had a tendency to be angrily defensive of his own ideas, which grates on everyone's nerves and attempts to draw attention to himself - which in 90% of the time means he's just butthurt about not being listened to. It garners suspicion onto him, yes, simply because his manner of speech could be so abrasive, but I didn't think he was an experienced enough player to have been acting as a double-agent all that time. | ||
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One of these mafia has previously not been featured before, if we consider that there are 7 mafia and 3 x 2 deaths. The first mafia seems to be the same mafia from day 1, with a similar location of where the murder occurred - that is, near the water. However, we have a second clue here in the form of the branded hand, which could mean any number of things... though putting it into Google yields a poem. The poem honors a seaman who was convicted and branded on his right hand for helping slaves. There are some lines in the poem that refer to a 'Saviour'. Curiously, gaizka is a Basque name which means precisely that. The second mafia uses a blade. He could potentially be the one from Day 2, but there are no references to odd formations made with the blade, but some to sound which suggests Day 1's mafia. Again, we have iloveKT for sound and VelkanKnight for blade, though after doing some research I'd also like to add Fulgrim for blade (as the WH40K character uses a sword), however much of a stretch it could be. I don't believe we've witnessed a mafia that's used knives and has an association with time/watches before. I have no idea who this could be, though my feeling is that it's the previously unfeatured mafia. | ||
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On January 29 2010 01:39 dozko wrote: I like to point out that no_re and RoyW have been putting in the same votes, since the beginning of the game. Both have stayed relatively quiet. no_re made a good clue analysis post in the first day which appears to have won him immunity against our consideration - mission accomplished he has not really made the same type of posts anymore. I think it is highly likely that if one of them is mafia then the other is as well. In fact I dont get why they have been trying to vote off quickstriker since the first lynch. This is strange since I dont think there are any clues incriminating these guys, but their posting and voting patterns especially make me very suspicious. I think it's time for me to bring up an accusation. WARNING: INCOMING WALL OF TEXT First of all, I'd like to say that I appreciate everyone's contribution so far. The more people that participate the better chance we have of finding mafia. Secondly, I'd like to say that I am an extremely non-aggressive person. I don't pick fights when I don't have to, and I'd like to believe that everyone speaking right now is not mafia. However, something has come to my attention that I feel warrants further investigation. I'm putting my credibility at risk here, and if it turns out I'm wrong I would understand if people became wary of me instead. My suspicions: There are no clues that currently point to no_re, but I find it odd that two of the three in his trust circle, Iaaan and XeliN died last night. Why is this so strange to me? Because I have knowledge that Iaaan roleclaimed DT to XeliN last night, and both Iaaan, XeliN and no_re have confirmed that XeliN had been sharing his information with no_re for some time. Why does this bother me so much? Because it is possible to conclude that no_re is mafia, in that upon finding out this information he had a discussion with his fellow mafia and decided that the possible payoff for a hit on Iaaan was too good to pass up. But why XeliN as well? Because of the information that Iaaan passed on. The information is that Iaaan claimed that he: 1)cluechecked the phrase about the broken flower vase and 2) that it did not point to me. Assuming that Iaaan was right in guessing that I am a townie, the mafia would have moved to kill Iaaan and XeliN based on the chance that Iaaan was correct. It would have been a large risk to leave XeliN alive and have his suspicions turn back on no_re once it turned out Iaaan was green, the only other person that he's been talking to. The possibility that Iaaan was NOT blue would be inconsequential in this case, because as far they knew, the only people in the trust circle were XeliN, Iaaan, and no_re. The death of Iaaan and XeliN wouldn't necessarily draw attention to no_re, and everyone else would have continued to pore over clues. However, I knew that Iaaan was making this gambit to XeliN. And because not just one, but BOTH of them died, I am highly suspicious of no_re, and will be using one of my two votes on him. I have identified a few potential problems in my line of thought: 1) This could all be coincidence, and it turns out that no_re is innocent. This is what I am most fearful for, because it leaves us in no better of a position than before, though it is no worse than we have been doing previously. I hope that no_re can forgive me for such a forceful accusation if this is the case. 2) It is possible that I could be mafia, and I spoke with the rest of the mafia to arrange the hits. There is, after all, no proof and no way to check that my role is town-aligned. I would then ask you why it would be a rational idea for me to accuse no_re and claim I had this hidden knowledge, whereas keeping silent would have been most beneficial. If after all of this he turns out to be innocent, then suspicion will surely turn back upon me for such a vehement accusation. It would be more beneficial to the mafia to remain silent of any knowledge and continue making hits as opposed to a grand public accusation which, if wrong, would draw suspicion towards them. If it comes down to it, I would be willing to die to prove that I am not red. But, I want to win, and as such I want the town to win, and would hope to remain alive for as long as possible so that I can use my powers of Sheriff to prevent and/or deter mafia kills in the late game. I have enclosed two of my PMs with Iaaan below. So, Xelin thinks I'm the detective. I'm thinking of telling him that I am indeed the detective (even thought I'm not), and seeing if I die tonight, so I'm PMing you for two things, do you think I should lie, and if I do, I need to send someone my PM's for evidence if I do die. If I don't die, no big deal, then I can tell him the truth the next day, or I could keep lying are tell him who to vote for ;p What do you think? -Iaaan So I messaged him. I sent you all my PMs to him, Read from bottom up. I have also PM'ed tree.hugger, Quickstriker, no_re, and Johnnyspazz if you want to see those ones o: And keep in mind, I've been telling everyone different stories thought PM's, cause I generally PM them to see what their reactions to things are. Your the only one I'm telling the truth to, if your a mafia then your probably screwing me, and alot of other people over. lol ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I lied to you before, I am the detective. I wasn't sure if I could trust you, it was better to be careful, but reading over the thread. I used a clue check yesterday, on "broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery" because it seemed like it could point to our sheriff, and I wanted to make sure I could trust him, and I couldn't role check him so... But for tonight, I'm thinking since I'll probably die in the next 2 or 3 days, I'm going to use a rolecheck. Everyone is suspicious of Quickstriker, so I'm thinking of using it on him; its helpful either way if it comes up red or green. But then he could still be the godfather... Other than that, I'm not sure tho. Maybe iLoveKT or RoyW or Jonoman92.... But, who do you think I should check? and whats your role, just a townie? I thought that was probably your role, cause you wouldn't really want to risk a blue role calling on people to lynch you for information ;p ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I'm not the detective ;p I'm hoping tree.hugger or cresentia is, since they have protection, otherwise idk. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Are you the detective? This is the only hypothetical that is making much sense to me, if so you may have rolechecked Softer and it came back Red, hence you voting for him without, as far as I could tell, much evidence. Softer "Changed colour" so that suggests he was a Miller, and so possibly you or also potentially Cresentia may be a DT. You being the DT makes alot of sense to me though as another hypothetical is you have rolechecked Quickstriker and it came back Green. In the above scenario then I would believe Quickstriker to be the Godfather, chosen by the Mafia at an early stage in order to protect him from rolechecks as he was one of the first people accused of being Mafia. I really do hope some or all of this is true. Although it is mainly a guess so hopefully you can clarify. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: -Iaaan Hi!, you are right I am very suspicious wait scrap that close to certain (i shudnt say this as from a philosophical viewpoint im not even certain of things like "do we exist" but meh) that he is mafia. A post he made earlier did make me think however that his role is either likely to be the Godfather or innocent. He basically invited the DT to check him now unless he was banking on the fact the DT would ignore that and wouldn't actually do it, he would either be the Godfather or innocent. Statisically it is far more likely he is innocent if i follow this train of though, I however believe he, and some other of the more active posters, are Mafia and you are right if elected my first move would be to kill him. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: So right to it, Quickstriker is suspicious. I was thinking about talking about lynching him, or killing him if I got mayor, but then I thought, because he is the most suspicious, The DT's will probably role check him first. Your posts make it sound like you want to kill him, or your at least keeping an eye on him, but I think on the first day it would be more beneficial to kill someone else, instead of someone the DT's will probably check. so yeah, just my thoughts about Quickstriker so far. Thought I would share o: I would say something nice about you now, like how insightful your posts are, but obviously you would have to think that it is superficial, I could easily be a Mafia, or be trying to manipulate you for whatever other reason. So I'll just write my name instead There is one more PM which could be brought up in this discussion, in which I sent to no_re earlier yesterday about if there was another person in his trust group. Unfortunately, this is due to my misreading of his "2 out of 3" post earlier, where I thought he had been talking to 3 people, not two. That is included in the following spoiler (read from bottom to top): + Show Spoiler + oh nevermind I misinterpreted your post ----------------------------------------- Original Message: the only people I have talked to in PM are Iaaan and XeliN... ----------------------------------------- Original Message: who was the last person you talked to - and what did you tell them? I believe this is enough context to put no_re into suspicion. I hope you read this and come to your own conclusions about it. I encourage everyone to reread no_re's clue analysis posts, because I am now seriously considering the possibility that they are deliberately designed to mislead us. I will be voting no_re as one out of two to be lynched. | ||
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On January 29 2010 08:04 Jonoman92 wrote: dozko, let me first say thanks for doing such extensive analysis to give us all information to review and consider. The thing is you have a lot of leads and so far we're yet to catch a mafia member. I think that some of the leads must be correct but it is certainly hard to know which ones. We also don't exactly know what method BC is using to lay clues. I think that if we can get a mafia member on this turn we should continue along the same path but otherwise maybe we should put less emphasis on the clues and more on examining people's postng behaviors and trying to see if we can figure out motives from that. With so many inactives it does present a problem though... I wish there was a way to check if people were viewing the thread even if they aren't posting because that would lead me to believe they are mafia rather than noobs who signed up for mafia and are dumb townies who aren't caring to participate. Like the voting thread stated... the inactives we have right are being PM'd with regards to their inactivity, and will be removed by the end of this Day unless they start doing stuff. You can sort of verify this if you start running into people posting on other sections of the forum but not saying anything. I've noticed Iplaythings and Nigol at some point while this thread has been up, but for the most part the people on the above list haven't said very much so far. | ||
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On January 29 2010 08:43 no_re wrote: you sure wrote a lot of text without much real content, crescentia. Here is a copy of the PMs between myself and Iaaan in which you will see my reasons for my votes The reason I picked the two out of my 4 main suspects, is because they were receiving the largest amount of votes, and therefore I would not feel like I was wasting mine on people that would not get lynched. Read from the bottom up, First PM is Iaaan's + Show Spoiler + Honestly, I thought softer was a decent guess, not the best, but not too bad either; I don't know how much suspicion to put on people for that. But I agree anyway, I'm suspicious of tree simply because he is the mayor, quickstriker just because ;p, shockeyy I agree hes a dumbass either way, just coming in and accusing people for no reason, Dozko I don't have an opinion on yet. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: hey hows it going? My thoughts atm for most likely mafia members are QuickStriker, still ShoCkey guy, he is either a terrible mafia or a terrible townie. So either a mafia or someone useless to the town anyway Dozko his vague posting style spreading a lot of disinformation makes him a prime candidate in my eyes, plus he voted for softer. Tree.Hugger his voting patterns seem quite suspect to me especially his vote for softer late yesterday. I have a small circle of trust currently with XeliN thought I probably have given that away anyway in my thread posting. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Yeah, but of course he could just be excited to be playing Mafia, which I kind of am myself ;p There isn't very much to go on yet, but we will have to pay attention to further clues, and what potential DT's say about him, especially on day 2, because if I were a DT, so far he seems like the best choice for a role check. Also, I decided to run for Mayor/Sheriff. I wasn't sure if I could do a good job at first, but I think its very important that a Mafia doesn't become sheriff, or especially mayor, and I right now the only person I know isn't Mafia is me (which i would probably say if I were Mafia, but still, the only thing a townie can be 100% sure of right now is their own role), so I figured rather than just abstaining and giving the Mafia a greater voting power (because 6 votes for them is a fair bit), I would run myself and hopefully weaken their chances, since only 4 people have stepped up so far, and at least one of them is probably a Mafia, its pretty likely they would get in. But yeah, vote for me if you think you should, but either way I'll probably keep Pming you occasionally, Its good to talk to either a smart townie, or even if you are a Mafia (which is a 19.5%(?) possibility for everyone!), still good to see what you say. I guess you could think the same thing, if I am a Mafia, good to keep an eye on me ;p Not that I'm a mafia... but still! 19.5% chance and not much info to go on! anyway o: -Iaaan ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I agree with a lot of what you say, I am very suspicious of Quickstriker, something in his posting style makes me feel he is trying very hard to look like we need to keep him around. sorry for my slow response, I wrote my analysis just before I went to bed =] ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Very nice analysis of the first killings (; What do you think of quicksilver? He definitely could be a Mafia, with that little clue about a quick attack (although that's obviously not 100% certain), but I think that he could be trying to set himself up to be elected, with all his warnings. It makes him look experienced, which is important if he wants a position of power, especially since most people here are new at this. So yeah, I think that if he puts himself up to be elected, hes going to look pretty good, which obviously would be what he wants if hes a mafia. But, what do you think about him so far? O: Im still not sure what you are accusing me of crescentia, to quote your post you say "Why does this bother me so much? Because it is possible to conclude that no_re is mafia," So from all your typing it is possible I am mafia - I question how this is different from anyone else? Bring forward some real substance to your next wall of text or I feel it may look like you are trying too hard to convince people of what isn't there. Why so dismissive? This has very little to do with your voting record, so I'm not sure why you brought it up. I've mentioned the possible holes in my argument, and you haven't responded to them. I am accusing you of being mafia because Xelin may have shared with you that Ian had claimed that he was DT, and claimed to have used a clue check on me to show that I had nothing to do with the murders. Because the mafia has certain knowledge of who is town and who is mafia AND KNEW what had transgressed between Xelin and Iaaan, they would have been faced with the possible threat of a DT and would look to kill him. My conjecture is that the link between Xelin/Iaaan's conversation and the possible cause for their deaths is that you are mafia, as you were in communication with both of these people. The possible counterarguments I have thought of are that 1) it was a coincidence that both of them died no matter what information you and XeliN traded, and 2) because I'm mafia trying to throw people off. I know it's difficult to make a case for the first point. You can make a case for the second, or that there is some other scenario that I haven't thought of. Above all else, I want you to tell me why I'm wrong. It may be that I'm trying too hard to see things, but I'd rather try and be proven wrong and apologize for that. I am sorry if my tone was too harsh and I apologize if you were offended. It was difficult for me to say something as well, because I like to avoid conflict whenever I can, and the thought that I might be wrong and we would lose another active townie is pretty crushing to consider. If I do turn out to be a fool, I hope you can forgive me. | ||
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Lelouch vi Britannia from Code Geass (and QS's profile) has the power to hypnotically command people to do whatever he wants them to do. Not only that, there is an episode where he has a ridiculous looking sword (the blade is purple) which he waves around absurdly as he's giving commands to soldiers - definitely in what I would call 'odd formations.' Maybe BC has seen Code Geass. I think I may vote for QS with my second vote... | ||
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On January 29 2010 09:45 no_re wrote: I feel that laaan and Xelin were both killed by the mafia since they were getting a lot of things right. Also in the PM's between Xelin and Iaaan, Iaaan only claimed to be a DT at first, and came clean to Xelin he was just a townie before he was mafia lynched. Read PMs from the bottom up due to the dumb reply system TL has. He claimed not to be DT, then he did. | ||
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On January 29 2010 09:50 no_re wrote: You can't seriously vote for me AND quickstriker? I am pretty much camped atop the lynch quickstriker pile Dunno for sure; it's something I'm keeping in mind. My money's still on someone like Jonoman92 or RoyW atm. Though, I've been itching to see what color he turns out to be, because I've reviewed his earlier posts and found some good ideas and some bad ideas. | ||
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On January 29 2010 10:02 no_re wrote: Xelin was good at this game... Or that he just got defensive when Shockeyy criticized him and viewed everything he said as a possible mafia threat. IIRC Shockeyy was the first to criticize RoyW for supporting Xelin - which seemed within a reasonable range of behaviors. I know Shockeyy is posting from his phone, but with that said it seems to me that there wasn't any reason why Shockeyy was so firm in his conviction that Xelin was mafia. I might decide to vote him too. There are just so many suspicious candidates around here; I feel like a girl in a shopping mall trying on clothes. | ||
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On January 29 2010 10:31 no_re wrote: Well my answer will always be that I knew he wasn't DT, if it is true or not. I don't know what that last bit is supposed to mean. | ||
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On January 29 2010 12:53 ShoCkeyy wrote: I was firm, wtf you talking about? Did you not see as to how many times I re-read his post and even provided with reasons as to why he was mafia. Like everyone else here, and even tree.hugger, I fucked up in choosing him. Which is why I just leave the clue seeking to you guys. I wish I can really try and find clues, but it's fucking hard with a phone. I will just read what every one has to say, and give my little 2cents here and there. My townie role only comes into play when I have to go and vote. Either way, when I do see something suspicious, I do post it and if you count the people that I have accused, it was like only three or four. Yeah, but most of your reasons were a bunch of what ifs, along the lines of "he must be doing this because he's trying to confuse us" and rarely considered (or didn't have the time/posting ability to consider) that he might just have his own perspective. | ||
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I'm going to be sticking with no_re for my first vote, regardless of my doubts about it. I think it's worth a shot, and if it turns out I'm wrong then I'm wrong. My second vote is going to be going to QuickStriker, because I'd like to get to the bottom of these vague 'quick' clues once and for all, and because he hasn't been around recently to do anything helpful. Judging by one of his earlier posts: Like I have stated over again and again from the very beginning of the game, the purpose for me in this game is to guide fellow novices of the TL mafia game and helping the town lead its way to a positive direction. And this is in regardless of who I might be in the ultimate end when all of you find out My instinct is to label him either Bodyguard or Mafia going by this, as I recall him claiming green earlier. We'll see in the morning, I suppose. | ||
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On January 29 2010 13:48 d3_crescentia wrote: Judging by one of his earlier posts: My instinct is to label him either Bodyguard or Mafia going by this, as I recall him claiming green earlier. We'll see in the morning, I suppose. Guess I was right after all... wish I didn't waver in the last moment. At least 7strife is dead. | ||
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Gaizka was not mafia, but we still have the branded hand to look at. | ||
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If we continue to lynch incorrectly every day, then we have 2 days left before the town/mafia are at even numbers. I don't know if that counts as a win for them, but regardless we need to get these next two *right*. If it comes down to it, we may have to use a double-lynch on Day 5 (which would mean voting on Day 4...) no_re RoyW Jonoman92 sidesprang I also continue to suspect iloveKT to a lesser degree, because he hasn't posted too much, has those soundwaves in his profile, and because it's possible that he decided to waste a vote on another mafia that was going to be modkilled anyway. | ||
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On January 30 2010 03:34 ~OpZ~ wrote: Alright guys, not that you can trust me...It's clear we cannot trust those that are leading us in circles... there are now 15 of us vs 6... I am becoming to suspect Fulgrim from varying clues...I'm just tryinng to connect one mafia to another among differing days. We'll see where I get it, but I'm also looking at a few other people too, so don't feel too offended fulgrim. Again, if any of you would like to suspect me, connect me to a clue. Any of them. I just did a manual count to double-check my work, and... We have 17 players total, of which 6 are mafia, or 11 vs. 6 This means that we only have tomorrow to come out of this. Tomorrow will be 8 vs 6 after the mafia have killed 3. We'll have to lynch one (5 = 3KP) and incarcerate another (4 = 2KP) on Day 4 to survive to a 6vs5 situation on the day after. We'll have to vote for a double-lynch on Day 5 and lynch two to win... but if we don't, we end up in a 4v4 which is probably GG town. Tough odds. We also have to consider that tree.hugger may be mafia, then we're fucked for the next day. If it turns out that both me and tree.hugger are mafia, then town might as well call it quits, because this incarceration plan won't work to town's favor... but if tree.hugger is town, then we have a solid chance. There's gotta be an active DT out there somewhere. Role-check someone. I expect both of our medics are down and out. | ||
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On January 30 2010 04:38 tree.hugger wrote: #2 - Incarcerated players can still vote the following day yes? - Also, we probably have one detective left, and you better have used your role-check tonight, and dammit, I want to hear about BOTH of your role checks. You actually HAVE to tell me, because otherwise, we will lose. And this game has had the worst luck imaginable - one DT, both medics inactive... with only one inactive mafia, and six other guys laying false trails... From my reading of it, it'll just temporarily lower mafia KP during the night they're incarcerated... they come back the next day, ready to vote. If there are any more medics or vigis out there, it's time to act. There HAS to be at least another DT out there, and I'd be super glad if we had two. And for the love of god I hope there's another BG out there... | ||
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On January 30 2010 05:52 JadeFist wrote: dozko and johnnyspazz, I'm telling you... Empty accusation. Tell us why. | ||
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You're a birthday icon. There really isn't much we can do at this point. Any remaining medics should look to protect me, since tree.hugger is accounted for. DTs should also come forward and PM me/tree - because, as I've said, if either of us is mafia it's pretty much GG at this point. | ||
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On January 30 2010 10:20 no_re wrote: I didn't vote for no_re because I can be sure that I am a townie figure out who the rest of the mafia are, because so far it seems you've been wrong we'll see if we can win tomorrow morning... | ||
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On January 30 2010 17:37 QuickStriker wrote: Good job guys, I've been passed out and sick for the past several days only to expected to be lynched by my fellow townies who lack sensible logic to win. But don't worry, I still have hope for the town to win despite the fact no one is probably going to post as much and we wont have like even as close to 50 pages in this game. I'd say 44 max but even that is sketchy.... GG there'll probably be a lot of after-game discussion so don't worry about that I wish you had said something sorry we lynched you =( | ||
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On January 31 2010 01:57 Fulgrim wrote: We need to lynch no_re tomorrow becaue he is our biggest lead at the moment, and at this point we can't afford to lose another townie. So my vote will be no_re and double lynch for the next day. I'm very suspicious of all the people who DIDN'T vote for no_re (dozko, d3_crescentia, OpZ, decafchicken, ShoCkeyy all did). d3 had some very conclusive evidence to no_re's alignment. Why am I included in that list when it's clear that I did vote for him? | ||
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On January 31 2010 02:10 d3_crescentia wrote: Why am I included in that list when it's clear that I did vote for him? FML, I'm an idiot and misread your post we have 30 minutes, maybe an hour before it's over? we'll see, then... again I'm going to call out iloveKT since he voted for 7Strife for no apparent reason | ||
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Conditions below, where these MUST be fulfilled for the town to win. Condition 1: The Mayor is town-aligned. Condition 2: The town's lynches are 100% accurate. Subconditions below, where AT LEAST ONE of them must be fulfilled for us to win. Subcondition 1: The Mayor survives to Day 8. Subcondition 2: The Sheriff survives to Day 5. Subcondition 3: There exists at least 1 Veteran. For Subconditions 1, 2 to be fulfilled we have to presume there is at least another Medic or Bodyguard in existence. | ||
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Condition 1: Revised - All elected officials are town-aligned. Subcondition 3a: If a Veteran exists, the mafia MUST target him on Night 3 or 4. This is what we have to work with. If anyone claims vet at this point, we should be very suspicious of what he has to say since the GF can fake Vet though we should avoid lynching him immediately. If the mafia decides to buy into this idea, it will benefit the town in the short run if we lynch the rest of the mafia with 100% accuracy, but it puts us into a dangerous situation in the late game (3v2 or 2v1 situations, etc.) I am hoping the last DT will survive until then. | ||
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On January 31 2010 11:21 johnnyspazz wrote: what is it that veteran's do? also opz, its obvious none of the clues point to me and they couldn't because im not mafia Veterans need to be killed twice to die. And, to drop the pretenses... I am not mafia. I'm hoping I'm the Miller, but I'll settle for good old Townie. | ||
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On February 02 2010 11:00 ~OpZ~ wrote: Well...I think the day is done, or should be closing..... days are 48 hours, so there's still another ~23 hours left also, you should edit your previous post since 1) it breaks the layout and 2) you're dead so editing isn't as big of a deal especially since it doesn't really say much | ||
d3_crescentia
United States4053 Posts
But seriously, look at that list of mafia; we predicted a lot of them but never lynched any of them. IloveKT was on my list for the longest time; we had Jonoman92 and RoyW by clues though personally I thought it would be an either-or scenario between them; and VelkanKnight was brought up once or twice but we never really pursued that. I got pretty suspicious of Fulgrim by the end because he was the last electoral candidate in the game, and if we wanted to follow the logic that the mafia put up their own candidate then knowing iaaan, XeliN, myself and tree.hugger were town should have put some doubt into other peoples' heads. Decafchicken as mafia doesn't surprise me, though I honestly don't know what sorts of clues would have pointed to him and so the thought of suspecting him never really even occurred to me. Who else could we have suspected? Drinking? Haster27? Jadefist? Johnnyspazz? None of these seemed like mafia to me, and process of elimination would have narrowed the list down easier. The other thing is that I realized how wrong my no_re accusation was after Day 4 went by and I saw his posts in the thread. If I'd been alive I would have told everyone to get their votes off of them. But, no... I guess this just teaches me to trust my gut, no matter how weak the feeling is. The town victory scenario, as unlikely as it was: 8 v 6 DAY 4 town kills 1 mafia; vote double lynch 8 v 5 NIGHT 4 mafia kills 2 town (hits 1 vet) 6 v 5 DAY 5 town kills 2 mafia 6 v 3 NIGHT 5 mafia kills 2 town 4 v 3 DAY 6 town kills 1 mafia 4 v 2 NIGHT 6 mafia kills 1 town 3 v 2 DAY 7 town kills 1 mafia 3 v 1 NIGHT 7 mafia kills 1 town 2 v 1 DAY 8 town kills 1 mafia Of course since tree.hugger was vet then it wouldn't have mattered whenever mafia decided to kill him, because alive or dead his presence would have given the town a slight advantage. But, you know, town needed 100% accuracy... which was the big problem. | ||
d3_crescentia
United States4053 Posts
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d3_crescentia
United States4053 Posts
It's just annoying because whenever we cast out an accusation I was hoping that they would come back and respond to it... but they never did and so my mind moved onto someone else. Funny how that happens. | ||
d3_crescentia
United States4053 Posts
On February 04 2010 08:51 XeliN wrote: lol KT i just got abit carried away and some of the townies seemed to be acting so obviously Mafia to me it was surreal seeing the final list. let that be a lesson to you: nothing is ever what it seems | ||
d3_crescentia
United States4053 Posts
On February 04 2010 11:46 Chezinu wrote: You seem to know what you are talking about. + Show Spoiler + lol, sorry had to do it. man if I had to go back in time and smack myself in the face with some wisdom it'd be right out of starfox - never give up; trust your instincts! | ||
d3_crescentia
United States4053 Posts
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d3_crescentia
United States4053 Posts
in fact I'm wishing more people did that this past game, but oh well. | ||
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