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BloodyC0bblers's Mafia XVI - Page 3
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
30 minutes left. | ||
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d3_crescentia
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On January 22 2010 13:29 Fulgrim wrote: Ugh, hate to go to bed before the election is decided =/ Whoever is elected mayor, use your lynch wisely, and on the off-chance I am, I will use my lynch on Lunaticman, who has been inactive since we started, so we won't be losing much. It's only 24 minutes... QuickStriker brings up another good point in that incarcerating 2 won't reduce KP to 2. Whichever one of us is sheriff will have to keep that in mind. | ||
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d3_crescentia
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Signing off for the night. | ||
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d3_crescentia
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Well, who are you going to lynch then? | ||
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d3_crescentia
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Good night. Let's hope for a good one (and by that I mean a bad one). | ||
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d3_crescentia
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that's not allowed <_< | ||
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d3_crescentia
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It's sad we lost Lunaticman, but he didn't do shit to let us know he was even around. Also, I find it unlikely that anyone knows anyone's role right now. If we'd elected Iaaan or someone else that was going to lynch an inactive it would have looked equally as suspicious. It's the first night. If there are any DTs left we should be plan to keep them alive and help them figure out what actions they should take. The idea lifted from the other thread - for a DT to do an early rolecheck to establish an inner circle - sounds like a good idea. Checking someone who's posted in the thread would be good. The risk of running into GF is low, but my feeling is that DT should be wary of the more active players as the GF role benefits more active mafia in the first place. Of course GF role benefits all mafia - it simply depends on what their plan is. There is also the list of clues I posted earlier up in the thread for DTs to check if they're not working on their own analysis. If anyone has any suggestions to improve it, I have added it below as well as spoilered my original post: List of potential clues: 1. Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide. (potential leads: Fishball, softer, drinking) 2. he turned the body and knew it was grave (don't know, bit of a stretch 3. With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground. (QuickStriker) 4. Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery (d3_crescentia) 5. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. (maybe iloveKT) Potential candidates for the clues have been parenthesized following the clue. Again, I would prioritize forming a trusted circle (of two) first; then I would also follow up with investigations on the more active players that have clues suggesting them like myself and Quickstriker. Of course, no matter what you decide to do, we'll have to reevaluate once Day 2 rolls around. + Show Spoiler [Clue Analysis Post] + On January 21 2010 19:31 d3_crescentia wrote: Alright, I'm going to go through this again: The Day 1 post was written in lines of rhyme and prose. A few pages ago I've formatted the original post to show prose and poetry; there are some minor edits here and there to make that more distinct. The starred lines are lines that could potentially be rhyming lines. The italicized segments are things that I think could be clues, based on my own thoughts and contributions of others. My initial guess is that the prose sections are where the clues are located, and not where the lines rhyme. For the first murder, I believe we have mostly water-related clues and the cave, which could point to Fishball and drinking. There is also the 'tenderly' adverb, which dozko suggested could be softer. I believe the phrase "knew it was grave" could mean something, but since it's in a rhyme section it goes against my current theory. Still, a possibility there. The sentences with town/ground might be a botched rhyme, but I do feel that the "quick attack" should be checked out for the possibility that QuickStriker is indeed mafia. Regarding Judge's death, we have the flower vase, which points to me. ~OpZ~ also mentioned the repeated use of the word "hall," which in and of itself could be a clue. I've also noticed the use of sound-related descriptors - crash, sound, rush of air; potential connection to iloveKT as his profile contains pictures of sound waves. What I'm particularly curious about what the object that sunk into Judge's shoulder was... that should be a clue in and of itself. List of potential clues: 1. Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide. 2. he turned the body and knew it was grave (maybe) 3. With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground. 4. Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery 5. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. Does anyone have any criticisms? I'm open to suggestions. I realize that most of it is grasping for straws, but I think it's better that the DTs check *something* our first night rather than nothing. | ||
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d3_crescentia
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DT only has 3 rolechecks per game, and can't do 2 of them in a row. DT can either rolecheck or cluecheck tonight; rolecheck possibly being safer. The DTs cannot rolecheck me or tree.hugger, though I think they could cluecheck us for relation to any of the things listed above. The other thread is bristling with good ideas. Yes, it's entirely unproductive to say that this thread is less active than the other, because 1) it's an obvious truth and 2) it's not helpful. It's only slightly less unproductive to consider what that suggests for our game. Instead, we should be encouraging those who haven't spoken yet to consider the facts and reason things out. The following may seem obvious to you: I am fairly sure that the GF would not have put himself to be an elected official, because doing so would completely waste the GF's ability of hiding himself amongst the townspeople. We can then look at the electoral candidates and say that it is unlikely (though not impossible) that one of them are the GF, though one or more could check as mafia. For this matter, I am hoping we still have 2 or more DTs. I think it would be terrible if the GF was one of our failed candidates, and our last DT decided to form a circle with him. Of course, it would also be bad (but not as bad) if a DT checked the Miller. And so we come full-circle to our problem - inactivity. If a large percentage of the population do NOT vote, it gives the Mafia that much more freedom to move around in. In fact they can spread their votes around and have just enough to edge out a win supplemented by Townies who have been convinced by their arguments into following through on their overall strategy. Furthermore, if we have a Mafia mayor, it only makes their power that much stronger. I will be reconsulting my notes on last night's voting in a while for clues. I hope the DTs will rolecheck the candidates tonight, but I insist that you be wary of speaking up too loudly just yet. | ||
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d3_crescentia
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Conjecture: If we have a mafia-aligned town official, she/he will not be the Godfather. | ||
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On January 23 2010 07:10 XeliN wrote: For QuickStriker i have already given my reasons in my previous posts, whilst they may be scattered among more than one I don't rlly want to repeat myself. For the sake of conciseness, I would really prefer that you did repeat yourself. I think it would be the best way to go about building a case against QS if you could quickly summarize your arguments here in a single post; that way people don't have to search through the entire thread when it comes down to voting time. | ||
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On January 23 2010 07:31 XeliN wrote: I am going out in a second, I will make a post going over all the reasons why I consider Quickstriker Mafia, citing his posts and explaining my interpretation e.t.c doing this means ransacking the entire thread so far and collecting it together in one post, so I will have it done tomorrow. Actually if i am killed by Mafia by then I won't be able to, in a hypothetical where i am killed b4 posting then plz give serious thought to lynching Quick Dozko and i would suggest Shockeyy as well. you have 7 hours T_T | ||
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On January 23 2010 08:19 toplexa wrote: Ok i just read everything. We lost a DT with bad luck. Im just wondering how important are the first mafia hits* and what is sheriff/mayors plan from now on /incarcelation?/. Adding some notes about what could be clues from day 1: "With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground. His mind raced towards the possibilities of what happened, and he reached for his gun. But before he could begin, the figure drew overtop of him and the sheriff was done" "As he explored the nearby rooms he moved back to the hall and made his way back towards his office. It was then that he saw something on the ground by the window at the end of the hall. Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. The mayor vx70GTOJudgexv cried out, and crumpled dead to the floor." As Sheriff I don't have a concrete plan for using incarceration yet. My thoughts so far are to use it on Mafia suspects in the mid/late game and checking for KP reduction as a means for checking roles. Could you go into more detail about the first clue? I'm not sure what or who this could suggest. | ||
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d3_crescentia
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On January 23 2010 08:24 Iaaan wrote: And last think I can think of right now, If either the mayor/sheriff are DTs, they could tell us, because they can't be killed by the Mafia right? we have to lynch them. for any other role they could just lie (if they were the Mafia), but its not hard to prove your a DT to the public if you have protection. True, but I think the Mafia can turn this around to their advantage even if they were to lie and claim DT publicly. If a Mafia officers claims DT publicly, then they'd have to rolecheck someone. Mafia could coordinate to have one person take the hit; they would check and be forced to sacrifice a member after public announcement. All well and good for the town, except that the DT cannot rolecheck twice in a row, and would still let the Mafia kill 6 people for the time being. Then on the third night, the Mafia/fake DT would have a chance of being discovered if two DTs do the same check to be sure. However, doing so could reveal the real DT if they collaborate together and then the Mafia will target the real DT. We could then lynch the Mafia/fake DT if the evidence is conclusive enough, though it's possible that they could also make a lucky guess in checking people, and continue on another day. Secondly, if the Mafia officer claims DT and says he's doing cluechecks instead, the same thing would happen with the rolecheck above - there's no way to confirm the word that the officer actually IS a DT without outside collaboration, which would threaten to expose any other DTs we have. If we have the case that the officer actually IS DT, then for all of the reasoning above it would be dangerous to trust him 100%. In other words, it would be extremely advantageous for us to have a DT in office, but it would be extremely suspicious for them to roleclaim that publicly. Privately will be a different story, but even then I would be suspicious. Lastly, keep in mind that the Mafia are actively trying to figure out whatever OUR roles are, and they have a better chance in guessing Townie over a blue role. If in the first case they decided to not let another Mafia take the fall, they have a good chance of hitting a Townie by guessing, and again we would have to wait until Night 3/Day 4 for a double DT confirmation to be sure. It would be advantageous, yes, to have a DT in office, and I would think an active DTs would have had the thought cross their mind, even if they didn't decide to do it. I just don't think they would roleclaim so soon. This is all off the top of my head and someone could (and should try to) find holes in my logic. Day 2 clues should give us a better idea of who to lynch. I think the remaining DTs should rolecheck the election candidates - whomever they can or mistrust. | ||
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d3_crescentia
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Supposing the electorate is DT, though, and roleclaims, the situation would not change much even if the DT was under no suspicion. 6 people will die in 2 nights, but there's no guarantee for that we can lynch any Mafia in that time. It's just that roleclaiming DT for a mafia candidate, under my line of thought, will likely end up with a DT death amongst those 6. Looking back upon it, Mafia-electorate roleclaiming DT is much like a stronger GF. Yeargh. | ||
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On January 23 2010 09:22 johnnyspazz wrote: wow interesting points by everyone so far. can someone explain to me what clue checking is? The DT asks if a certain line or phrase from the Day post contains a clue, and/or if it points to a particular person. This is done in private by PMs to the game host. Examples: 1) DT asks, "does the phrase "he saw that it was a broken flower vase" contain a clue?" 2) DT asks, "does the phrase 'with a quick attack' point to QuickStriker?" and the host BC will reply in PM to them. What they do with the knowledge is up to them of course... | ||
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hope this conversation goes on until MSL starts! | ||
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On January 23 2010 10:08 ShoCkeyy wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 23 2010 09:10 d3_crescentia wrote: True, but I think the Mafia can turn this around to their advantage even if they were to lie and claim DT publicly. If a Mafia officers claims DT publicly, then they'd have to rolecheck someone. Mafia could coordinate to have one person take the hit; they would check and be forced to sacrifice a member after public announcement. All well and good for the town, except that the DT cannot rolecheck twice in a row, and would still let the Mafia kill 6 people for the time being. Then on the third night, the Mafia/fake DT would have a chance of being discovered if two DTs do the same check to be sure. However, doing so could reveal the real DT if they collaborate together and then the Mafia will target the real DT. We could then lynch the Mafia/fake DT if the evidence is conclusive enough, though it's possible that they could also make a lucky guess in checking people, and continue on another day. Secondly, if the Mafia officer claims DT and says he's doing cluechecks instead, the same thing would happen with the rolecheck above - there's no way to confirm the word that the officer actually IS a DT without outside collaboration, which would threaten to expose any other DTs we have. If we have the case that the officer actually IS DT, then for all of the reasoning above it would be dangerous to trust him 100%. In other words, it would be extremely advantageous for us to have a DT in office, but it would be extremely suspicious for them to roleclaim that publicly. Privately will be a different story, but even then I would be suspicious. Lastly, keep in mind that the Mafia are actively trying to figure out whatever OUR roles are, and they have a better chance in guessing Townie over a blue role. If in the first case they decided to not let another Mafia take the fall, they have a good chance of hitting a Townie by guessing, and again we would have to wait until Night 3/Day 4 for a double DT confirmation to be sure. It would be advantageous, yes, to have a DT in office, and I would think an active DTs would have had the thought cross their mind, even if they didn't decide to do it. I just don't think they would roleclaim so soon. This is all off the top of my head and someone could (and should try to) find holes in my logic. Day 2 clues should give us a better idea of who to lynch. I think the remaining DTs should rolecheck the election candidates - whomever they can or mistrust. The thing with this, is that Mafia won't roleclaim DT publicly. If some one roleclaims DT publicly then we can expect them to be lynched by the mafia. So that means if a mafia member role claims DT publicly and doesn't get lynched, that person must be a mafia. There's no way a DT will survive if he openly says he's a DT. Possible, but consider the following: DT could have found a medic on first rolecheck; messages medic and lets them know that they know their role. DT then announces that they are DT, but they have medic protection and don't die. My answer was originally in response to if either Mayor/Sheriff were mafia and roleclaimed DT. Generally I think it's a pretty bad idea to roleclaim DT this early in the game anyway, so... | ||
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