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GrandInquisitor
New York City13113 Posts
On September 04 2015 05:05 nafta wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2015 05:01 Goumindong wrote:On September 04 2015 04:36 nafta wrote:On September 04 2015 04:27 Goumindong wrote:On September 04 2015 03:57 Sonnington wrote:
Being good or bad at LoL isn't a linear progression. Look at the LCS for instance. They're all top players in theory and some are bad at csing and good at team fighting. Some are good at team fighting and bad at csing, etc, etc.
I think the most amusing part of VayneAuthority's rant on the difference between a Diamond 5 and Diamond 3 is the fact that Diamond comprises the top 2% of LoL players. Forget elo for a moment. How about lower divisions when you have people on your team that are 10%-15% higher or lower on the bracket? Shit you all probably ban incorrectly anyway because it's easy to not see the whole of pick and win rates and instead rely on personal feelings of effectiveness. I may update my pick/ban spreadsheet today for the new patch/settle into 5.16 meta changes today (may not though) lol thanks for the laugh I honestly wish one day you reach high elo and understand why bans are done and the reason isn't looking at numbers on a website  . ? http://www.lolking.net/summoner/euw/28968221http://www.lolking.net/summoner/na/19883872 lol someone took the name thats random http://euw.op.gg/summoner/userName=xN0SC0Pe360MLGxXLike you don't even play ranked why talk like you know what you are supposed to do to get good winrate? Like don't get me wrong I don't think I am good or anything but anyone who has reached >d3 will agree with me on this - you don't just ban the statistically highest win rate champs. Even at lower elo with how much elo boosting there is you should still ban shit like riven/rengar every game.
If there was actually that much elo boosting going, you'd see much higher win rates on Riven/Rengar, no? Even with all those elo boosters, Riven is still right at 50% and statistically unlikely to make your team win.
Also, I think this is a discussion that would be much more productive with our dicks on the table instead of dancing around the subject. For me, I pretty much only ban women it seems. Janna is the premier ban target, especially if you are playing any champion that she hard counters. (This is putting aside obviously broken champs like Skarner.) Other priority bans are Vayne/Jinx/Annie/Ahri depending on which hurt the champion I plan on playing the most, and which of my teammates plan on playing those champions.
In competitive play, you can scout out your opponents and ban out the champs you know for a fact they are best on. In solo queue, your best bet is to play the odds and go for the +EV play. If you view bans as a way of forcing their players into less optimal champs, you can't do much better in terms of win rate by being able to force their Vayne/Jinx main onto Tristana/Lucian, or their Ahri/Annie main onto Yasuo/Viktor, or their Janna onto Thresh.
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On September 04 2015 05:18 GrandInquisitor wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2015 05:05 nafta wrote:On September 04 2015 05:01 Goumindong wrote:On September 04 2015 04:36 nafta wrote:On September 04 2015 04:27 Goumindong wrote:On September 04 2015 03:57 Sonnington wrote:
Being good or bad at LoL isn't a linear progression. Look at the LCS for instance. They're all top players in theory and some are bad at csing and good at team fighting. Some are good at team fighting and bad at csing, etc, etc.
I think the most amusing part of VayneAuthority's rant on the difference between a Diamond 5 and Diamond 3 is the fact that Diamond comprises the top 2% of LoL players. Forget elo for a moment. How about lower divisions when you have people on your team that are 10%-15% higher or lower on the bracket? Shit you all probably ban incorrectly anyway because it's easy to not see the whole of pick and win rates and instead rely on personal feelings of effectiveness. I may update my pick/ban spreadsheet today for the new patch/settle into 5.16 meta changes today (may not though) lol thanks for the laugh I honestly wish one day you reach high elo and understand why bans are done and the reason isn't looking at numbers on a website . ? http://www.lolking.net/summoner/euw/28968221http://www.lolking.net/summoner/na/19883872 lol someone took the name thats random http://euw.op.gg/summoner/userName=xN0SC0Pe360MLGxXLike you don't even play ranked why talk like you know what you are supposed to do to get good winrate? Like don't get me wrong I don't think I am good or anything but anyone who has reached >d3 will agree with me on this - you don't just ban the statistically highest win rate champs. Even at lower elo with how much elo boosting there is you should still ban shit like riven/rengar every game. If there was actually that much elo boosting going, you'd see much higher win rates on Riven/Rengar, no? Even with all those elo boosters, Riven is still right at 50% and statistically unlikely to make your team win.
Riven is fun, lots of people with not many games on her play her if they need to top just because it's a fun champion. I personally have like a 30% winrate with her in occasional games.
Besides it's not so much the fear of the average riven winning lane. It's the fact that maybe 1/10 rivens will literally just 1v5 and there isn't anything you can do as a mid or bot laner. If every gragas does above average, but 15% of rengars literally 1v5, then you ban rengar if you feel confident you can carry. Because gragas you can outskill/outcarry, rengar will just make the game literally unwinnable 15% of the time.
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GrandInquisitor
New York City13113 Posts
On September 04 2015 05:28 killerdog wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2015 05:18 GrandInquisitor wrote:On September 04 2015 05:05 nafta wrote:On September 04 2015 05:01 Goumindong wrote:On September 04 2015 04:36 nafta wrote:On September 04 2015 04:27 Goumindong wrote:On September 04 2015 03:57 Sonnington wrote:
Being good or bad at LoL isn't a linear progression. Look at the LCS for instance. They're all top players in theory and some are bad at csing and good at team fighting. Some are good at team fighting and bad at csing, etc, etc.
I think the most amusing part of VayneAuthority's rant on the difference between a Diamond 5 and Diamond 3 is the fact that Diamond comprises the top 2% of LoL players. Forget elo for a moment. How about lower divisions when you have people on your team that are 10%-15% higher or lower on the bracket? Shit you all probably ban incorrectly anyway because it's easy to not see the whole of pick and win rates and instead rely on personal feelings of effectiveness. I may update my pick/ban spreadsheet today for the new patch/settle into 5.16 meta changes today (may not though) lol thanks for the laugh I honestly wish one day you reach high elo and understand why bans are done and the reason isn't looking at numbers on a website . ? http://www.lolking.net/summoner/euw/28968221http://www.lolking.net/summoner/na/19883872 lol someone took the name thats random http://euw.op.gg/summoner/userName=xN0SC0Pe360MLGxXLike you don't even play ranked why talk like you know what you are supposed to do to get good winrate? Like don't get me wrong I don't think I am good or anything but anyone who has reached >d3 will agree with me on this - you don't just ban the statistically highest win rate champs. Even at lower elo with how much elo boosting there is you should still ban shit like riven/rengar every game. If there was actually that much elo boosting going, you'd see much higher win rates on Riven/Rengar, no? Even with all those elo boosters, Riven is still right at 50% and statistically unlikely to make your team win. Riven is fun, lots of people with not many games on her play her if they need to top just because it's a fun champion. I personally have like a 30% winrate with her in occasional games. It's not so much the fear of the average riven winning lane. It's the fact that maybe 1/10 rivens will literally just 1v5 and there isn't anything you can do as a mid or bot laner. If every gragas does above average, but 15% of rengars literally 1v5, then you ban rengar if you feel confident you can carry. Because gragas you can outskill/outcarry, rengar will just make the game literally unwinnable 15% of the time.
Isn't reasoning like this exactly why relying on intuition is dangerous? We are primed to remember all those 1v5 games by BoxBox smurf, and not the games where Riven was useless. Meanwhile we are NOT primed to remember those far more frequent games where having a Janna on the other team meant their backline was literally unkillable.
Worrying about the black swan is not a positive EV play. Sure, once in a while you'll run into a challenger smurf on Riven/Rengar. And once in a while your bot lane won't ever connect to the game. That sucks, but you can't plan your strategy around that. Losses to Riven smurfs may feel bad, but they're not any different than the far more frequent losses to Janna that you don't remember.
Also, the whole "Riven just has lots of people play her who aren't good at her dragging down her skill rate" is a fallacy. The average Riven player has 144 Riven games played this season; the average Janna player has 82. Janna's win rate for players that have played fewer than 5 games on Janna this season is higher than Riven's overall win rate (and for Riven players with 50-125 games played).
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On September 04 2015 05:37 GrandInquisitor wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2015 05:28 killerdog wrote:On September 04 2015 05:18 GrandInquisitor wrote:On September 04 2015 05:05 nafta wrote:On September 04 2015 05:01 Goumindong wrote:On September 04 2015 04:36 nafta wrote:On September 04 2015 04:27 Goumindong wrote:On September 04 2015 03:57 Sonnington wrote:
Being good or bad at LoL isn't a linear progression. Look at the LCS for instance. They're all top players in theory and some are bad at csing and good at team fighting. Some are good at team fighting and bad at csing, etc, etc.
I think the most amusing part of VayneAuthority's rant on the difference between a Diamond 5 and Diamond 3 is the fact that Diamond comprises the top 2% of LoL players. Forget elo for a moment. How about lower divisions when you have people on your team that are 10%-15% higher or lower on the bracket? Shit you all probably ban incorrectly anyway because it's easy to not see the whole of pick and win rates and instead rely on personal feelings of effectiveness. I may update my pick/ban spreadsheet today for the new patch/settle into 5.16 meta changes today (may not though) lol thanks for the laugh I honestly wish one day you reach high elo and understand why bans are done and the reason isn't looking at numbers on a website . ? http://www.lolking.net/summoner/euw/28968221http://www.lolking.net/summoner/na/19883872 lol someone took the name thats random http://euw.op.gg/summoner/userName=xN0SC0Pe360MLGxXLike you don't even play ranked why talk like you know what you are supposed to do to get good winrate? Like don't get me wrong I don't think I am good or anything but anyone who has reached >d3 will agree with me on this - you don't just ban the statistically highest win rate champs. Even at lower elo with how much elo boosting there is you should still ban shit like riven/rengar every game. If there was actually that much elo boosting going, you'd see much higher win rates on Riven/Rengar, no? Even with all those elo boosters, Riven is still right at 50% and statistically unlikely to make your team win. Riven is fun, lots of people with not many games on her play her if they need to top just because it's a fun champion. I personally have like a 30% winrate with her in occasional games. It's not so much the fear of the average riven winning lane. It's the fact that maybe 1/10 rivens will literally just 1v5 and there isn't anything you can do as a mid or bot laner. If every gragas does above average, but 15% of rengars literally 1v5, then you ban rengar if you feel confident you can carry. Because gragas you can outskill/outcarry, rengar will just make the game literally unwinnable 15% of the time. Isn't reasoning like this exactly why relying on intuition is dangerous? We are primed to remember all those 1v5 games by BoxBox smurf, and not the games where Riven was useless. Meanwhile we are NOT primed to remember those far more frequent games where having a Janna on the other team meant their backline was literally unkillable. Worrying about the black swan is not a positive EV play. Sure, once in a while you'll run into a challenger smurf on Riven/Rengar. And once in a while your bot lane won't ever connect to the game. That sucks, but you can't plan your strategy around that. Losses to Riven smurfs may feel bad, but they're not any different than the far more frequent losses to Janna that you don't remember. Also, the whole "Riven just has lots of people play her who aren't good at her dragging down her skill rate" is a fallacy. The average Riven player has 144 Riven games played this season; the average Janna player has 82. Janna's win rate for players that have played fewer than 5 games on Janna this season is higher than Riven's overall win rate (and for Riven players with 50-125 games played).
There are also lots of "riven only" mains who are plateau'd at their correct elo. If i hit a plat 1 riven main, who's been in plat 1 for the last 6 months, he's going to have roughly a 50% winrate on riven. (janna being op right now doesn't really detract from that.) Which, incidently is another reason to ban riven/rengars, you cut off any one trick ponies on the other team, and there are much more likely to be riven or rengar one trick ponies then elise one trick ponies, but that aside.
It's just the type of games that happen when a riven or rengar is in the game, if they're hard carrying then the game isn't fun, you don't learn anything, and there isn't anything you can do.
If you want to say that banning a champion just because it wins 5% more of the time then rengar is better, just because of that 5% you're ignoring a shitload of factors. Maybe you're confident you can carry the game unless there's a fed rengar in it, maybe that 5% comes from people who don't know how to play against it but you do, maybe that 5% is because it's strong against champions you aren't playing, maybe it comes because the champion is really good at stopping other lanes carrying, but you're confident you can carry so that doesn't matter. etc etc
If you're better then your elo, then banning out the things that can prevent you from carrying means you always get to influence the game fully.
If you're worse/at the correct elo, banning out things which prevent you from learning, and not banning out things you need to learn against anyway just helps you get better.
Even if i agreed that banning the statistical op's might win 1-2% more games in the short run, which i'm still not convinced (your team can pick them too you know,) even then you're having less fun and learning less...
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There is also another factor specifically with riven. She is so fucking useless when someone who doesn't main her tries to play her. Dunno about you guys but losing in 20 or playing 4v5 are both unpleasant on either side.
Janna is a champion I agree is insanely broken right now and is super brainless/faceroll but she doesn't just hard carry you games like some other shit.
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I suppose it's also a question of if you're banning to have a more fun game or a game you're more likely to win.
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On September 04 2015 04:09 Ansibled wrote:
Random question, does anyone ever type glhf in your games? Nobody ever seems to reply to me when I do it lately.
It's rare in my games. Funnily enough I've typed "from?" and I've gotten a handful of people who picked up on that, probably more replies to that than any glhf.
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Was never an argument just a bonus thing. I would go as far to say that increasing your chance of enjoying the game would make you improve faster but that is a different story.
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GrandInquisitor
New York City13113 Posts
Yeah you guys are confusing me now. I am banning champs because I want to win the game, not because my panties get in a twist after losing to the Broken Sword. I find losing to Riven to be exactly as infuriating as losing to Janna, except that the latter happens way more often than the former, and takes a lot less skill on their part to boot.
That being said, I think that would be a fascinating Riot API exercise. Win rate times play rate is but a proxy for the true statistic we are searching for, which is win rate for bans. I want to know the highest win rates for any particular ban. Part II, the more complex version, is win rates given both sides' bans, and in particular, the effect of bans. For example, does a Riven ban make those one-trick Riven ponies gravitate to any particular champion? I somehow doubt that banning Riven causes them to all play Malphite, for example. Maybe they all gravitate to Xin Zhao top or something, and then you can either preemptively ban that champion and/or have a Jax counterpick prepared.
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GLHF doesn't work as well in a teamgame because everyone is thinking "is he talking to me, who is this guy, someone else will answer". In SC it's a greeting between two people, so the dynamics of the interaction are more easy to accept and follow.
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Baa?21244 Posts
On September 04 2015 06:07 GrandInquisitor wrote:
Yeah you guys are confusing me now. I am banning champs because I want to win the game, not because my panties get in a twist after losing to the Broken Sword. I find losing to Riven to be exactly as infuriating as losing to Janna, except that the latter happens way more often than the former, and takes a lot less skill on their part to boot.
Sure that's how you do things, but not everyone bans to maximize their chances of winning. I've banned like the same handful of champs for four years regardless of their winrates/impact on the game/current viability ~_~
On September 04 2015 06:15 Osmoses wrote:
I ban Fizz because I just hate playing against that little shit, doesn't matter if he carries or not.
Yea pretty much. I've banned Fizz for years, long before he was "competitively viable"/a common solo queue pick.
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I ban Fizz because I just hate playing against that little shit, doesn't matter if he carries or not.
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Honestly I could agree overall with janna over riven ban. I am kinda biased since I main bot lane and not the champs she fucks that much and know most of the time how to beat her. But again you are using logic "hey this champion is really good vs what I do" not just the brainless looking at winrates/playrate/etc so don't really think it counts.
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On September 04 2015 05:05 nafta wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2015 05:01 Goumindong wrote:On September 04 2015 04:36 nafta wrote:On September 04 2015 04:27 Goumindong wrote:On September 04 2015 03:57 Sonnington wrote:
Being good or bad at LoL isn't a linear progression. Look at the LCS for instance. They're all top players in theory and some are bad at csing and good at team fighting. Some are good at team fighting and bad at csing, etc, etc.
I think the most amusing part of VayneAuthority's rant on the difference between a Diamond 5 and Diamond 3 is the fact that Diamond comprises the top 2% of LoL players. Forget elo for a moment. How about lower divisions when you have people on your team that are 10%-15% higher or lower on the bracket? Shit you all probably ban incorrectly anyway because it's easy to not see the whole of pick and win rates and instead rely on personal feelings of effectiveness. I may update my pick/ban spreadsheet today for the new patch/settle into 5.16 meta changes today (may not though) lol thanks for the laugh I honestly wish one day you reach high elo and understand why bans are done and the reason isn't looking at numbers on a website . ? http://www.lolking.net/summoner/euw/28968221http://www.lolking.net/summoner/na/19883872 lol someone took the name thats random http://euw.op.gg/summoner/userName=xN0SC0Pe360MLGxXLike you don't even play ranked why talk like you know what you are supposed to do to get good winrate? Like don't get me wrong I don't think I am good or anything but anyone who has reached >d3 will agree with me on this - you don't just ban the statistically highest win rate champs. Even at lower elo with how much elo boosting there is you should still ban shit like riven/rengar every game.
Its not the statistically highest win rate champions. Its the champions which have the highest probability of winning over any number of games. I.E. you ban champions that win and are played. Champions that don't win and are played you can ignore, they're never negative. Champions that win and aren't played you can ignore they're unlikely to be picked enough to matter.
Champions that win and are played, those are the ones you have to remove from the pick pool.
Granted i don't think it works when you're in master. But that isn't because the idea is wrong, its because you're going to either know who you're playing against and so know who to ban and/or you're going to be playing in an area where there isn't lots of good data on pick rates and so your gut on pick rates is better than the data i have.
Otherwise i can't see why you would go with anything but the +EV play. And i can't see why that wouldn't be how i set things up (besides me being lazy and not stratifying bans based on your role/champion preference)
On September 04 2015 06:07 GrandInquisitor wrote:
Yeah you guys are confusing me now. I am banning champs because I want to win the game, not because my panties get in a twist after losing to the Broken Sword. I find losing to Riven to be exactly as infuriating as losing to Janna, except that the latter happens way more often than the former, and takes a lot less skill on their part to boot.
That being said, I think that would be a fascinating Riot API exercise. Win rate times play rate is but a proxy for the true statistic we are searching for, which is win rate for bans. I want to know the highest win rates for any particular ban. Part II, the more complex version, is win rates given both sides' bans, and in particular, the effect of bans. For example, does a Riven ban make those one-trick Riven ponies gravitate to any particular champion? I somehow doubt that banning Riven causes them to all play Malphite, for example. Maybe they all gravitate to Xin Zhao top or something, and then you can either preemptively ban that champion and/or have a Jax counterpick prepared.
I took champion.gg data and did this. Its in the blog section. You can see my method there if you want. A direct "win rate for bans" would be interesting though i am not sure how easy it would be to disambiguate the effects of correlated bans. Given the number of ban combinations i am not sure that it would be feasible to extract that data. (Decent if you do it simple only, but that isn't too accurate given how we think things are saturated)
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Well the thing is that it's only the guaranteed best +EV play for the average League player and you don't know how much different you yourself are from that hypothetical person and how that impacts the EV values. I do know that it's not insignificant.
The only way to find that is to only analyze the games of one specific person, but then the variance is way too high for meaningful data.
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GrandInquisitor
New York City13113 Posts
On September 04 2015 06:21 Goumindong wrote:
I took champion.gg data and did this. Its in the blog section. You can see my method there if you want. A direct "win rate for bans" would be interesting though i am not sure how easy it would be to disambiguate the effects of correlated bans. Given the number of ban combinations i am not sure that it would be feasible to extract that data. (Decent if you do it simple only, but that isn't too accurate given how we think things are saturated)
Interesting analysis. I do think that win rate per ban is feasible and the worries about disambiguation are perhaps unnecessary. If you really wanted, you can categorize every ban as a ban targeted towards a particular lane, and then analyze say, a Jinx ban in the context of "0 prior ADC bans"; "1 prior ADC ban"; etc.
Come to think of it this is worth a new site separate from champion.gg that's just devoted to pick/ban. Sadly I think it would go underused because people would just ban Fizz/Riven/Rengar every game anyway.
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I am pretty sure a lot of people ban out of annoyance or just follow what other people bans.
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On September 04 2015 06:07 GrandInquisitor wrote:
Yeah you guys are confusing me now. I am banning champs because I want to win the game, not because my panties get in a twist after losing to the Broken Sword. I find losing to Riven to be exactly as infuriating as losing to Janna, except that the latter happens way more often than the former, and takes a lot less skill on their part to boot.
Two things, (substitute janna with any winrate champion)
1. Losing to janna is something you can outplay, she's stronger then other supports, but there's counterplay etc, you just have to play slightly better/differently. Losing because of a carrying or feeding riven there's nothing you can do.
2. janna is going to be played in a lot of your games whatever you do, so if you ban her in your games she'll still be in 80% of them. Why not just focus your energy on learning how to play around her/against her, rather then trying to ban her. Sure you might lose 2-3 extra games out of 50-60 where the enemy first rotations janna, but you're learning from these losses. Compare that to the 2 games out 50-60 where a riven or rengar rolls you and you get nothing from those.
With regards to the winrate per ban thing, i highly doubt there's an effect outside of the fp champions like darius/elise/whatever, because if you ban something like janna as second pick, which normally doesn't get fp'd, your own team is just as likely to get it (if not more, because your support is more likely to be in the top 2 picks then the top 1 pick.)
I doubt the prevelance of swapping is common enough to undermine that relationship.
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On September 04 2015 06:32 GrandInquisitor wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2015 06:21 Goumindong wrote:
I took champion.gg data and did this. Its in the blog section. You can see my method there if you want. A direct "win rate for bans" would be interesting though i am not sure how easy it would be to disambiguate the effects of correlated bans. Given the number of ban combinations i am not sure that it would be feasible to extract that data. (Decent if you do it simple only, but that isn't too accurate given how we think things are saturated) Interesting analysis. I do think that win rate per ban is feasible and the worries about disambiguation are perhaps unnecessary. If you really wanted, you can categorize every ban as a ban targeted towards a particular lane, and then analyze say, a Jinx ban in the context of "0 prior ADC bans"; "1 prior ADC ban"; etc. Come to think of it this is worth a new site separate from champion.gg that's just devoted to pick/ban. Sadly I think it would go underused because people would just ban Fizz/Riven/Rengar every game anyway.
I looked at this before and did some scoping.
I ran some machine learning algorithms and I was able to predict the outcomes of matches (ranked) with roughly 55% accuracy using only the champions picked and a rough elo bracket estimate (e.g. gold). Comparably I can do so for ARAM with around 65% accuracy. This by itself is only somewhat useful, but it can be leveraged to figure out the ideal bans and picks in a given situation using the predicted winrates.
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GrandInquisitor
New York City13113 Posts
On September 04 2015 06:19 nafta wrote:
But again you are using logic "hey this champion is really good vs what I do" not just the brainless looking at winrates/playrate/etc so don't really think it counts.
The stats are real, whether you look at them or not. The brainless thing to do is to ignore them and continue on blissfully operating in your own world of confirmation biases and sampling biases. The right thing to do is to consider win rates and play rates in the context of your particular game state. Maybe Janna isn't worth banning if you plan on picking Blitz first. But you shouldn't be passing over a Janna ban just because you never saw Janna build a Rabadon's and 1v5 the other team under your nexus turrets.
Otherwise we end up in a world where people ban Fizz even though having a Fizz on the other team makes you more likely to win the game.
On September 04 2015 06:40 killerdog wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2015 06:07 GrandInquisitor wrote:
Yeah you guys are confusing me now. I am banning champs because I want to win the game, not because my panties get in a twist after losing to the Broken Sword. I find losing to Riven to be exactly as infuriating as losing to Janna, except that the latter happens way more often than the former, and takes a lot less skill on their part to boot.
Two things, (substitute janna with any winrate champion) 1. Losing to janna is something you can outplay, she's stronger then other supports, but there's counterplay etc, you just have to play slightly better/differently. Losing because of a carrying or feeding riven there's nothing you can do.
I really, really hope you're kidding.
2. janna is going to be played in a lot of your games whatever you do, so if you ban her in your games she'll still be in 80% of them. Why not just focus your energy on learning how to play around her/against her, rather then trying to ban her. Sure you might lose 2-3 extra games out of 50-60 where the enemy first rotations janna, but you're learning from these losses. Compare that to the 2 games out 50-60 where a riven or rengar rolls you and you get nothing from those.
Your argument doesn't make sense. I get only 20% of the bans either way. The other 80% of the time, I see Jannas and Rivens in exactly the overall play rate proportions. By banning out Janna in the 20% of the games I have first pick, I do not disproportionately fail to learn how to play against her than if I banned Riven.
With regards to the winrate per ban thing, i highly doubt there's an effect outside of the fp champions like darius/elise/whatever, because if you ban something like janna as second pick, which normally doesn't get fp'd, your own team is just as likely to get it (if not more, because your support is more likely to be in the top 2 picks then the top 1 pick.)
I doubt the prevelance of swapping is common enough to undermine that relationship.
Let's be clear here - either you're banning for their team or your team. You don't get to claim that you shouldn't ban Janna because she might be on your team, and then claim that you have to ban Riven because BoxBox might be on theirs. Besides, if you're banning your own team, that's easy - op.gg that shit and see what champ they've played 100+ times with a 40% winrate and ban that shit. This discussion is about banning the other team.
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