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Fildun
Netherlands4124 Posts
On May 21 2015 08:07 Carnivorous Sheep wrote: It's like you haven't read the thread at all. No it hasn't? You said that in case of a disagreement the midlaner should get blue buff because they get it most of the time. It's like you haven't read my post at all. | ||
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wei2coolman
United States60033 Posts
On May 21 2015 08:28 Goumindong wrote: Uhh yes it does. It says that if you choose the 70% choice every time you will be wrong 30% of the time and if you choose the 30% choice you will be wrong 70% of the time. The 70/30 split, in this instance, defines the individual probabilities. (Though technically we say that the split is defined by the probabilities and not the other way around this has no effect on the predicted outcomes, which is to say "the chance of someone being wrong" Or you could just use your own cognitive judgement and make chance of being right closer to 100%. | ||
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clickrush
Switzerland3257 Posts
On May 21 2015 08:28 Goumindong wrote: Uhh yes it does. It says that if you choose the 70% choice every time you will be wrong 30% of the time and if you choose the 30% choice you will be wrong 70% of the time. The 70/30 split, in this instance, defines the individual probabilities. (Though technically we say that the split is defined by the probabilities and not the other way around this has no effect on the predicted outcomes, which is to say "the chance of someone being wrong" That's false. You cannot deduct from those stats only what to do in 1 instance, since its not a 100/0 split you don't know purely from the stats if your 1 instance is in the 70% or in the 30%. | ||
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Fildun
Netherlands4124 Posts
On May 21 2015 08:28 Goumindong wrote: Uhh yes it does. It says that if you choose the 70% choice every time you will be wrong 30% of the time and if you choose the 30% choice you will be wrong 70% of the time. The 70/30 split., in this instance, defines the individual probabilities. (Though technically we say that the split is defined by the probabilities and not the other way around this has no effect on the predicted outcomes, which is to say "the chance of someone being wrong" The problem is that you're seeing the chance of someone being wrong as the same thing as the chance of a mid getting blue buff. Actually, I feel like we've defined wrong differently. | ||
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Slayer91
Ireland23461 Posts
1: You don't know much about league and are unsure about giving blue or not -->It's usually better to donate to mid 2: You know league and you agree with your midlaner 69.5% situations that he gets blue and 29.5% of situations you get blue and in that last 1% do disagree now in that last 1% there is no advantage in giving it to the midlaner because the stats aren't favouring you in any way it just happens that the split is in favour of midlanes getting blue that last 1% (most likely its a much bigger than 1% gap in solo q but w/e) is where you have decide who is more qualified for the call or take into account other factors (overhead to come to get blue for example) | ||
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Caiada
United States3052 Posts
On May 21 2015 08:31 wei2coolman wrote: Or you could just use your own cognitive judgement and make chance of being right closer to 100%. Let me predict the argument from here. "But statistics." | ||
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wei2coolman
United States60033 Posts
On May 21 2015 08:44 Caiada wrote: Let me predict the argument from here. "But statistics." closer to "muh heuristics" really, there are a ton of major factors that play into giving blue away, but the main reason is if the jungler is a generous god. | ||
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Ketara
United States15065 Posts
Cheep, are you trying to say, that at the highest levels of solo queue play on NA/EU, that junglers should not trust their own judgement when it comes to giving blues, and should just give them even when their judgement is that it is wrong for the situation? | ||
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wei2coolman
United States60033 Posts
On May 21 2015 08:59 Ketara wrote: I don't understand cheeps argument anymore. Cheep, are you trying to say, that at the highest levels of solo queue play on NA/EU, that junglers should not trust their own judgement when it comes to giving blues, and should just give them even when their judgement is that it is wrong for the situation? No, he's saying you should trust the judgement of your midlaner in the distribution of blue's. On May 21 2015 09:15 MidnightGladius wrote: Am I the only one here who tries to give away blue buffs but is told by mid to just take it for myself? It happens to me an uncanny number of times. I think a lot of it has to do with recent Athene's buff | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
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clickrush
Switzerland3257 Posts
On May 21 2015 09:15 MidnightGladius wrote: Am I the only one here who tries to give away blue buffs but is told by mid to just take it for myself? When my jungler is like 2 levels below me or I don't need the regen (cuz athenes/morellos + double dorans is what I build on most mids) then I don't want it. I only want blue when I have to rush Zonya's vs a Zed for example who can shove the lane infinitely. | ||
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Slayer91
Ireland23461 Posts
On May 21 2015 08:59 Ketara wrote: I don't understand cheeps argument anymore. Cheep, are you trying to say, that at the highest levels of solo queue play on NA/EU, that junglers should not trust their own judgement when it comes to giving blues, and should just give them even when their judgement is that it is wrong for the situation? cheep basically wants people to always assume its to be given to mid laner rather than the other way around | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Goumindong
United States3529 Posts
On May 21 2015 08:32 clickrush wrote: That's false. You cannot deduct from those stats only what to do in 1 instance, since its not a 100/0 split you don't know purely from the stats if your 1 instance is in the 70% or in the 30%. In which case I have a 30% win chance bet that pays 1 to 1 i would like to sell one whole fucking hell of a lot to you. | ||
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Caiada
United States3052 Posts
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Goumindong
United States3529 Posts
On May 21 2015 08:35 Fildun wrote: The problem is that you're seeing the chance of someone being wrong as the same thing as the chance of a mid getting blue buff. Actually, I feel like we've defined wrong differently. No, not at all. Suppose we are in a situation where its giving blue buff to the mid laner has more beneficial outcomes compared to giving it to the jungler 60% of the time. Should we give the blue buff to mid every time? A: Yes. We should, just like you should take a 60% 1 to 1 bet every time. It doesn't matter if its offered to you once or a hundred times you should take it every time**. This is especially true since we can invert the situation, going with the jungler then is a 40% bet and you would be stupid to take a 40% bet. Ever, once, you should not take that bet. The question is "is it really better to give it to the mid laner" and the answer is "yes in the majority of times it is, there are edge cases where its not*, but for the most part you want to donate if you can, because its better on the mid laner." And, just like you should take favorable bets every time, you should give the buff to the mid laner So then we get to "well does the jungler know better than the mid" and well maybe the answer is yes, (it should be yes) but junglers don't seem to make the right decision since the overall donation rate seems to be lower than it ought to be(though this is just a casual observation and not recorded data). *manaless, non-ult dependent mid laners and/or with low ult CD's. And/or someone so far behind you've lost the game anyway unless your ult dependent jungler can utilize the CDR to gank on cooldown. And the answer, just like when betting on a 60% bet is to bet on mid. *provided you're liquid enough, but this type of risk aversion doesn't come into play in league On May 21 2015 09:54 Caiada wrote: What if you're wrong and it's a 100% win chance and 2 to 1? What if the sun doesn't come up in the morning? Just because its come up every other morning doesn't mean its going to come up this one! edit: better example What if the craps dice suddenly aren't fair? Just because they've been fair for a hundred times doesn't mean they're fair now! Longer statement: Suggesting that the odds change without the situation change puts the kabosh on a lot of inference. Such that we wouldn't be able to say what we should do in any situation, given past data. It would be just as reasonable to suggest that its a 0% win chance and you should have the top laner teleport down to take the buff and walk back to lane because "like who knows man" Now, in a way you've hit on a central thesis of this. The mid and jungler seem to disagree (or in this case us here) on what the actual final probabilities are. Cheep (and I) seem to think that the blue buff is generally, almost overwhelmingly better on the mid laner, and other seem to think that blue buff belongs to the jungler who can decide what is best. As to the question of who has the decision making stuff right, that is unquestionably Cheep. The idea that you should choose the worse option under uncertainty is badwrongdumb. | ||
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Goumindong
United States3529 Posts
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clickrush
Switzerland3257 Posts
On May 21 2015 09:35 JimmiC wrote: For me the best practice is to ask mid if they want. If they don't come in a reasonable time or tell me to take i do. I also may say "taking this blue but you can have rest" if it will get me 6 or something and I have a good gank opportunity, or some other good reason like my mid is yas and I'm mummy. Buried some where is a post where a guy says the slight advantage of keeping blue vs the much higher chance of mid tilting if I take, or blaming a death 20 mins later on it for me is also not worth. I think generally the best play for elo advancement is whatever keeps the team together, I also think people generally believe they are in a much lower league then they should be and therefore are better than there teammates. Based on this they figure they should take, little do they realize that 90% of the people they are playing with feel the same way and instead of seeing what in their game is keeping them down they blame poor play of their "worse" teammates to keep their blind spot intact. Good point. Helping out other players builds trust. For the same reason you can buy another dorans ring and leave blue to the jungler. Jungle + mid relationships are important as I see it. When I recognize some skill in the jungler/mid and play the other role then I tend to follow up plays / help them out alot while leaving out some CS. Doing things like that even when it doesn't always lead to a significant economic advantage will build enough trust so the other player is more likely to do the same or listen to calls. Trust is also a huge factor in teamfighting. You can initiate/positoin much more aggressively if you know that there is a follow up / combo / peel incomming from the other guy. Another good example is to leave cannons for your support if he has a charge up to take it. It is most effective if you ping it and mention it in chat when you do it the first time so its clear from his side that you care about him and playing efficient. Side note: What also plays into this is the fact that league is played faster and faster over the last 2/3 years even in soloq. I always thought this would be the correct way but the egoistic, lanecentric soloq mentality led to a stagnation of that evolution. Most players realized this only after the korean proscene, which was much more strategy and teamoriented from the get go, introduced early fast pushing and rigorous objective control. This evolution happened even despite the fact that Riot wanted to prolong the laneing phase and make it safer to lane by making the jungle harder and more beneficial to clear, making turrets stronger in the early game and by introducing ward trinkets. In this faster paced league it is more and more important to build trust in your team and to do it as early as possible. | ||
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Caiada
United States3052 Posts
But if it's not, and situations change.... | ||
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Goumindong
United States3529 Posts
On May 21 2015 10:10 Caiada wrote: You're just assuming that it's a fixed percent chance. If it is, yeah, sure, go with the 70 every time, why wouldn't you? But if it's not, and situations change.... P(Win|X,M > Win|X,J) where "win" is winning the game, x is the specific situation you're in when you make the decision, and M/J being deciding for the jungler or the mid is and will always be a fixed percent chance. It will be a different fixed percent chance if X changes. But at the time you make the decision, X is fixed. Situations changing after we have made the decision are why we look at actions as having a probabilistic outcome Now, if you can predict the future then good on ya, but well. I don't think you can | ||
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