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On June 29 2014 18:33 PrinceXizor wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 18:32 Volband wrote:
Erm, to react to Gahlo's lost promos: Am I the only one who thinks if you are in bronze and want to reach at least silver, all you need is listen to good advices? Every time I see bronze players say things like "I should play this or that champion", something dies in me. Imo all you need is fundamentals and the right mindset, so it shouldn't be a problem that you have to play against mid silver guys in your promo to S5. honestly all you need to do to get to silver or any rank is win your promos, you don't need any skill at all in theory. if you get completely carried in the majority of your games you move up regardless of whether you are actually any good or not.
Isn't that a tad bit over-simplified? There's no evidence that if you just do your thing let's say at top (most isolated role), be 0-0-0 every game after laning phase you will be carried.
On the other hand, if you realise that taking 2 free kills worth more than farming those 8 minions worth more gold, you reach promos for sure, at least from bronze and silver.
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On June 29 2014 18:33 PrinceXizor wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 18:32 Volband wrote:
Erm, to react to Gahlo's lost promos: Am I the only one who thinks if you are in bronze and want to reach at least silver, all you need is listen to good advices? Every time I see bronze players say things like "I should play this or that champion", something dies in me. Imo all you need is fundamentals and the right mindset, so it shouldn't be a problem that you have to play against mid silver guys in your promo to S5. honestly all you need to do to get to silver or any rank is win your promos, you don't need any skill at all in theory. if you get completely carried in the majority of your games you move up regardless of whether you are actually any good or not. Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 18:19 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:On June 29 2014 16:42 PrinceXizor wrote:
Unfortunately 50% chances don't happen one out of every 2 or even three times. but they happen 50% of the time. so you can get screwed repeatedly by an artificial system, and while it doesn't ACTUALLY hurt your progression or MMR, you aren't getting stuck anywhere that matters, it feels like it because the actual growth is hidden behind a wall with a bronze/silver/gold ect nametag. Uhhhh... no... You're describing a 50% chance 50% of the time which if you think about it is a really weird thing. What happens the other 50% of the time? I'm only talking about the winrate of someone. It's 50% and it's staying there so they must be winning, on average, 1 in 2 games. Their chance to win a specific game may be anywhere from 0% to 100% (unrealistic, but it's just to prove a point). As long as they win 1 in 2 games, on average, over a reasonable sample size, under the conditions I specified (MMR higher than visible LP/league), they will advance to the visible league of the people they play, by the way MMR/LP works. cool man. thats missing the point entirely though. glad you decided to reiterate everything thats already been said. we're talking about the experience of being on the downside of that 50% chance, not whether or not over the long run it works.
No you tried to sound smart with a rebuttal to my post but it made literally no sense when my point was correct
Then this post called me out on exactly what you're projecting on to me in the very post you're calling me out on
I do not understand you at all
You can't be on the downside of a 50% average winrate. It's a fucking average. You don't understand enough basic math.
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On June 29 2014 18:44 Volband wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 18:33 PrinceXizor wrote:On June 29 2014 18:32 Volband wrote:
Erm, to react to Gahlo's lost promos: Am I the only one who thinks if you are in bronze and want to reach at least silver, all you need is listen to good advices? Every time I see bronze players say things like "I should play this or that champion", something dies in me. Imo all you need is fundamentals and the right mindset, so it shouldn't be a problem that you have to play against mid silver guys in your promo to S5. honestly all you need to do to get to silver or any rank is win your promos, you don't need any skill at all in theory. if you get completely carried in the majority of your games you move up regardless of whether you are actually any good or not. Isn't that a tad bit over-simplified? There's no evidence that if you just do your thing let's say at top (most isolated role), be 0-0-0 every game after laning phase you will be carried. On the other hand, if you realise that taking 2 free kills worth more than farming those 8 minions worth more gold, you reach promos for sure, at least from bronze and silver.
well its not over simplified. there are ways of increasing the likelihood you get carried, and there are ways of carrying yourself. but strictly speaking silver/gold ect only measure where you started and how many promo matches you've won compared to lost. given you can be higher or lower MMR than the typical player in your division, the only thing that matters to your visible ranking is those matches. you don't need to gain any skill to be promoted, just win the promos by any means, not the least of which is skill.
obviously a better player is more likely to win and get to promos in the first place, but the best players don't always win promos, and the worst sometimes do. so skill is not what the leagues measure, but success in your division and promo matches is.
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On June 29 2014 19:02 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:
No you tried to sound smart with a rebuttal to my post but it made literally no sense when my point was correct
Then this post called me out on exactly what you're projecting on to me in the very post you're calling me out on
I do not understand you at all
You can't be on the downside of a 50% average winrate. It's a fucking average. You don't understand enough basic math.
your point was off topic. frogs can jump is another off topic correct point its just useless to the discussion same as yours. i said that 50% chances aren't determined by previous performance. you don't win 1 out of every 2 coin flips. on average yes. but not literally one out of every two. so losing two in a row feels worse than only losing 1.
You can easily be on the downside of a 50% winrate. if you bet 100 dollars on a coin flip and lose, and then bet 5 and win, you are still on the downside of that winrate, and it feels awful. THATS what we are talking about. the emotional stakes of your promotional matches. since you don't seem to have caught on. We're talking about how shitty it feels to improve at a game while the game tells you that you have not, even worse when that statement gets parroted by others who see the label on you and assume you are worse than you are and treat you as such. it doesn't matter if you have a 50% chance to win any given promo match if you lose it three times in a row it still fucking sucks. and you are never going to have a 50% winrate on that promo, because once you are done, you are through, after 3 strings of failures. and its even worse knowing "i'm better than this label the game put on me, because the hidden label it put on me is similar to the hidden label the game put on people with better visible labels"
stop trying to make an argument about how crappy the system is to be stuck on the losing side of about math and winrates, its irrelevant.
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Streaks are weird. Yesterday while I was Gold I the games were for the vast majority Plat IV-V, with the occasional Gold II (and rest Gold I players). After I got demoted to Gold II (took 5 losses), it was basically Gold II-IV in every game, with the Plat V guy either having a negative record or being part of a duo. I also immediatly started losing much more than I won (+15, -23) despite being the opposite (+23, -12) before the demotion.
The day ended up 2-8 or something and I doubt you'd make the drop from high Gold I to Gold III Elo in 6 losses so I was surprised (and annoyed, because climbing back is going to be a bitch, even if I avoid the week-end shitters this time).
Quick question, usual one but the trends seem to have evolved pretty fast the last few weeks, which bans are you seeing now?
Personally I'd ban Kayle/Nidalee/Rengar/Ziggs (last one for the obnoxious stalling, previous 3 for being overtuned/popular super low skillfloor champs), but Kassadin and Braum are also worth a mention.
Jax, Evelyn, Vi still seem to be popular bans. LB, Lee, Kha'Zix, Rengar who were all banned not long ago seem to have receded. When my Elo drop really low (close to Gold III) Nasus starts reappearing.
About the winrate, look at it this way:
- I have 99 LP, to get promoted I need to win 1 + at least 2/3 out of 3/5. This means at worst I can do 3/4 wins out of 4/6 games.
- It seems unfair, but when you look at it it's basically "more than 2 out of 4, or 3 out of 6", eg. more than half the games.
- On paper it works because you only have to have a winrate > 50%. In reality it's shit because the low number of games requires a high winrate from you.
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Losing promo series is good for you. Builds character. Kassadin, Braum, Jax, Yasuo and Kayle are the bans I see the most.
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it took me 13 promos to go from plat 3 to plat 2, 9 to get to diamond the first time, 5 more times to get to diamond on my second account, and probably a lot more promo nightmares that i dont remember, those are just the ones that stood out.
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On June 29 2014 17:35 red_ wrote:
I don't think Gahlo is asking for help getting out of his promos, he's basically expressing his opinion that a visible Elo is > the tier/division system. I didn't know anyone actually disagreed with that assessment, and yet here people are arguing with him that his 'problem'(which isn't about how he loses games now and then, he seems perfectly fine with where he is at skill wise and hasn't once commented that he thinks he's in Elo hell or deserves to be higher as far as game quality goes) is dumb.
I could be wrong, but here's his argument restated:
Hey guys, I've gone up 400 Elo recently, almost back to where I was last season! Or I would be, except because of some unfortunate luck in the exact games that my losses happen to be occurring, in this magical system of tiers and divisions, I am displayed as having not done anything, almost as if I had played no games at all. That kind of bums me out, I know it shouldn't because deep down I know I've done alright, but it sucks not seeing any visible notice of that progress! If only there were a system where I saw a constantly evolving number live update as I played games, so I could always see where I am in relation to my former self and my peers and friends!
Elo is good. Tier/division is good. What isn't is having a contrived ranked system that fuses the 2, has the benefits of none, and the drawbacks of both.
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How are you not comparing apples to oranges here? You're saying "I'm bronze X, but my hidden MMR is way higher! what the fuck! why am I playing against Silver 2's with a hidden MMR that is exactly where I'm trying to promote into? boo hoo! im bronze playing really bad silver players!
if you're X elo, and you're in a promo series, you're going to be playing X+1 elo players. Period. If their division shows silver 2, and you're bronze 2, they aren't actually silver 2 ELO.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS:
you aren't being gatekeepered by shitty matchmaking. you're just not good enough to promote. you are legitimately playing people who are just barely better(and usually in intangible ways, with skillset that differs wildly from what you are good at, often leading to very confusing ideas about the quality of games you're actually playing), regardless of what their displayed rank is.
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On June 29 2014 19:49 ItsFunToLose wrote:
How are you not comparing apples to oranges here? You're saying "I'm bronze X, but my hidden MMR is way higher! what the fuck! why am I playing against Silver 2's with a hidden MMR that is exactly where I'm trying to promote into? boo hoo! im bronze playing really bad silver players!
if you're X elo, and you're in a promo series, you're going to be playing X+1 elo players. Period. If their division shows silver 2, and you're bronze 2, they aren't actually silver 2 ELO.
You don't understand the tier/division compared to mmr/elo split, do you?
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On June 29 2014 19:12 PrinceXizor wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 19:02 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:
No you tried to sound smart with a rebuttal to my post but it made literally no sense when my point was correct
Then this post called me out on exactly what you're projecting on to me in the very post you're calling me out on
I do not understand you at all
You can't be on the downside of a 50% average winrate. It's a fucking average. You don't understand enough basic math. your point was off topic. frogs can jump is another off topic correct point its just useless to the discussion same as yours. i said that 50% chances aren't determined by previous performance. you don't win 1 out of every 2 coin flips. on average yes. but not literally one out of every two. so losing two in a row feels worse than only losing 1. You can easily be on the downside of a 50% winrate. if you bet 100 dollars on a coin flip and lose, and then bet 5 and win, you are still on the downside of that winrate, and it feels awful. THATS what we are talking about. the emotional stakes of your promotional matches. since you don't seem to have caught on. We're talking about how shitty it feels to improve at a game while the game tells you that you have not, even worse when that statement gets parroted by others who see the label on you and assume you are worse than you are and treat you as such. it doesn't matter if you have a 50% chance to win any given promo match if you lose it three times in a row it still fucking sucks. and you are never going to have a 50% winrate on that promo, because once you are done, you are through, after 3 strings of failures. and its even worse knowing "i'm better than this label the game put on me, because the hidden label it put on me is similar to the hidden label the game put on people with better visible labels" stop trying to make an argument about how crappy the system is to be stuck on the losing side of about math and winrates, its irrelevant.
Okay stop being defensive and listen to me
+ Show Spoiler +POINT #1
YOU CANNOT HAVE A 50% WINRATE AND LOSE MORE THAN YOU WIN
If your MMR is higher than your league/division, you will get MORE POINTS for a win than you will for a loss
For example, I get 30 a win at diamond 5 and lose about 12
So if I maintain a 50% winrate, NO MATTER WHAT, I will rise into a series.
POINT #2
Variance cannot work against you always. This is called "running bad" in poker, where you lose hands where you're a large favorite to win. Even if we have only a perfect 50% average over a large number of games, we should expect to win 1 out of every 2 promos.
If you lose like 10 promos in a row, you're just an outlier, but there's a statistical phenomenon called "regression to the mean" which basically means everyone has about the same luck over a long period of time, so he should expect to
A) Stop losing all his promos
and
B) Go on massive winstreaks at some point in his career as well
tl;dr
You're spouting some bullshit about 50% chance to have a 50% chance to win which is totally retarded
Especially because this system OVERLY REWARDS YOU WITH LP FOR A WIN WITH HIGHER MMR (I get +30 LP in diamond 5 playing against d3/d4s and only lose 8-12 LP), the scenarios you describe are extremely unlikely to happen and will 100% self-correct if he just keeps playing.
Sure it "feels bad," if that's your point then whatever, but like, can you NOT call me out on a correct post with something you pulled out of your ass? "50% chance to win only happens 50% of the time." Seriously, what the hell does that even mean? Also what the FUCK are you talking about with betting 100 bucks on a coinflip that loses and 5 bucks on a coinflip that wins? God you're too stupid to even talk to.
What's even fucking worse about your shitty 100 dollar vs 5 dollar example is that IN HIS SITUATION he 100% of the time will either
A) Win ~30 LP
or
B) Lose ~15 LP (being generous, if his MMR is really that much higher he will lose less)
So it's like the exact reverse of your example where he's guaranteed to be +EV in this bet.
Also please don't talk about knowing what improvement feels like LOL
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it means what it says guy. it happens 50% of the time, not one out of every 2. they are very different things. you can have a 50% winrate overall in ranked with a 0% winrate in promos. you can have 100% winrate in promos and a 50% winrate as well. it doesn't matter how many LP you gain, that has jack shit to do with the conversation. so stop being so hostile, when you are just bringing up random shit for who knows why. maybe its a power trip, it doesn't matter. The league system created those outliers. before, when it was visible elo, and everyone saw themselves increase and decrease, you didn't have this system where which three games you picked out of your winrate at a elo mattered.
if I play 1000 games at 2000 elo with a 50% winrate, its safe to say i belong at 2000 elo. if i pick any random 2 games, they aren't always going to be one win and one loss. thats what 50% winrate means. it means over a large enough sample, things work out to 50%, not that 1 out of every 2 games is a win. they are vastly different concepts, once you can use to be predictive the other you cannot. in addition. the promo system says "this sample of games is representative of your skill level" and then picks a fairly arbitrary 3 or 5 game sample. thats not how it works. thats not any more accurate than looking at the cars parked near you how many of each color car exist in your town. so stop bringing up things that are entirely irrelevant. The system riot uses creates these situations where you are not shown your improvement where before, you were. The system riot uses strives to give you are 50% chance of getting through any promo series, which means that in order for the system to say you improved, you need to succeed a 50% chance if the system is working properly.before, you saw the trend yourself as it happened, you did not need this false feedback telling you nonsense. "you are four ghost three rainbow now hurray". it doesn't matter, your MMR improved, but you have no way of seeing that, your MMR can improve without being promoted as well, but you can't see that either.
It sucks you are trying to sound smart but don't understand what you were responding to. but its off topic and sucks to be you i guess. because its annoying to have to respond to someone who is only trying to argue for the sake of arguing. you should really stop calling people retarded and attacking people. its what got roffles perma banned, and that shows its not tolerated. it doesn't matter if its me you are talking to, i'm not less of a person than anyone else here, no matter what you try to say.
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On June 29 2014 16:02 PrinceXizor wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 15:47 Zdrastochye wrote:
I'm not sure Gahlo's problem is really a problem, at least I'm not convinced. I wonder if he'd have the same viewpoint no matter what his ranking was, or if he's just experiencing a lot of negativity in his games and its rubbing off on him. I still think if you manage to raise your elo far above the skill level you're playing with, you're good enough to take 2 out of 3 games versus those "better people". I get the sense that I won't be agreed with by him so I'll just drop it. the goal of matchmaking is to put you against people equal in skill to you, if you are consistently outplaying people of equal skill to you, then you are actually better than them. matchmakings goal is to get you to a 50% winrate ranking and not move you until you get there. Gahlo reached his 50% winrate MMR for the moment, but his visible ranking is not displaying the typical tier that people with his MMR reach. that is what is frustrating to him his visible ranking, but not his MMR are being artificially held down by the promo system. you don't get to skip promos to jump in visible ranking unless there is a big gap. if your MMR is that of say a diamond 1 player, and you are at Diamond 5, but playing vs diamond 1+ challenger players, your visible ranking is not displaying your skill. you are not being rewarded for going 50/50 with diamond 1/challenger level players. gahlo could beat his promos if they were vs his own visible tier of players that his MMR has surpassed, but he's playing vs opponents equal to him and as such is winning 50% of his matches vs better quality opponents than his peers in the same visible ranking tier.
This is the original post I was referring to, by the way.
If you win 50% of the time, you will eventually rise from d5 to d1 given the example you provided, because you win more LP than you lose.
God damn, I give up. You are entirely too stupid.
I actually kind of respect how steadfast and unflinching you are in the face of logic. It takes a special kind of cognitive deficit to not understand how dumb you are.
Because your point is essentially "what if he has bad luck forever?"
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Quick question: If you are blinded do autoattacks apply debuffs (like darius', twitch, red buff) ?
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I think it varies - passive debuffs don't apply but on-next-hit applies?
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On June 29 2014 20:17 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:
Because your point is essentially "what if he has bad luck forever?"
not even close. no one is talking AT ALL about being unable to ever reach a visible ranking that matches your MMR. but i've told you this a few times now, and it seems you just want to throw insults at people and argue for the sake of it. so i don't need to explain myself any further than pretty much everyone else already has read and picked up on.
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On June 29 2014 20:30 PrinceXizor wrote:
not even close. no one is talking AT ALL about being unable to ever reach a visible ranking that matches your MMR.
On June 29 2014 16:02 PrinceXizor wrote:
Gahlo reached his 50% winrate MMR for the moment, but his visible ranking is not displaying the typical tier that people with his MMR reach. that is what is frustrating to him his visible ranking, but not his MMR are being artificially held down by the promo system.
So what in the fuck is your point, in a single sentence?
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On June 29 2014 20:19 M2 wrote:
Quick question: If you are blinded do autoattacks apply debuffs (like darius', twitch, red buff) ?
I dont think its consistent, i'd look on lolwiki.
Some skills will apply some wont, its pretty retarded tbh.
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Iirc there are also differences between Dodge and Blind and Parry, some of them cancel the autoattacks (but not the abilities so Xin's, Nasus', etc. Q still apply), some are damage mitigations (so you'd take thornmail damage for example), it's pretty weird.
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On June 29 2014 20:33 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 20:30 PrinceXizor wrote:
not even close. no one is talking AT ALL about being unable to ever reach a visible ranking that matches your MMR. Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 16:02 PrinceXizor wrote:
Gahlo reached his 50% winrate MMR for the moment, but his visible ranking is not displaying the typical tier that people with his MMR reach. that is what is frustrating to him his visible ranking, but not his MMR are being artificially held down by the promo system. So what in the fuck is your point, in a single sentence?
Did i say anywhere in that quote that he wouldn't ever meet a visible ranking matching his MMR? no. i was discussing how it was frustrating to him that he hasn't after an extended period of time.
Honestly go back and re-read the last few pages. i don't need to read the thread for you, its something you should have done the first time.
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EPT
