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On February 12 2014 07:17 MoonBear wrote:Okay. - Your posts is a mess. Maximum value of likelihood of what? Of a streak? How do you even do an MLE on that. Are you trying to solve for the probability of being assigned first pick? A basic sense check tells you 8% is far too low.
- Then you try to combine Bayesian statistics by trying to bring in inference? Or is this just a comment that if you have a large enough sample size, eventually even small probabilities happen?
- You final question about whether someone else experiencing this is somehow related to luck or something I don't even know what you're trying to test here. That somehow if someone else experiences a low probability event it somehow means you're not experiencing confirmation bias?
I am going to kill this stats discussion right here and now because it is so bad.
1) There is no Bayesian analysis necessary
2) There is no MLE going on (why would you have MLE going on?)
What is going on is a back of the napkin count done so that I don't have to run a Monte Carlo simulation on the distribution or do the actual counting which is not simple though in this case simply tedious enough that I don't want to do it.
I did make an error in the count though. I had carried a term from when i was looking at the problem in a different way. Probability of a streak of 3 in 9 caps out at .7% for an individual.
By simple count we have
Success, Success, Success, any, any, any, any, any, any = .1% of the population of the set of possibilities. There are 7 of these, from 3 success, 6 any, to 6 any, 3 success. The sum of that indicates .7%
But they overlap because 3 success, 6 any contains 4 success, 5 any and so does 1 any, 3 success, 4 any. The count of the overlap i don't care to do. So i just state that my estimate is high.
User was warned for this post
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Please stop these statistics posts x.x
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Straight outta Johto18973 Posts
When I said "I am going to kill this stats discussion right here and now because it is so bad." perhaps I was not clear enough?
No more stats discussion. If you have an issue with it, PM me instead of posting here.
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Is it me or does the new champ look really awesome? His kit seems pretty interesting too
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On February 12 2014 07:55 Yezzus wrote:
Is it me or does the new champ look really awesome? His kit seems pretty interesting too
I'm just waiting patiently until TL ruins this guy for me too. Every time, I'm like "OMG this champ looks so rad" and then the unstoppable wave of cynicism makes me feel bad. At least it's not as bad as the movie forums.
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oh god, i hate when i read wrong math and cant correct it aaaaah
anyways, scip did you test skarner yet?
Or someone else that knows what he is doing.
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On February 12 2014 07:55 Yezzus wrote:
Is it me or does the new champ look really awesome? His kit seems pretty interesting too
Will put a new meaning to rape, when you see all the highlight vids that will come out.
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Can't wait to play velkoz/annie bot lane.
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On February 12 2014 07:42 TheYango wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2014 07:21 canikizu wrote:
Not to mention Tencent just got distribution right for HoN in China. Apparently there will be a new blind-pick mode, you can't see the other team picking, you don't lose gold when dying, and everybody has one free dedicate courier.
Doesn't HoN already give your team a free courier? Or do you mean per-player?
per player, and it's invulnerable too last time I read.
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On February 12 2014 08:09 GhandiEAGLE wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2014 07:55 Yezzus wrote:
Is it me or does the new champ look really awesome? His kit seems pretty interesting too I'm just waiting patiently until TL ruins this guy for me too. Every time, I'm like "OMG this champ looks so rad" and then the unstoppable wave of cynicism makes me feel bad. At least it's not as bad as the movie forums.
I think people pretty much Unanimously liked Jinx didn't they? And Lissandra was a total TeamLiquid favorite when she was released.
Its just when you release certain kinds of champions in a row...
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You know, I think I"m gonna stop playing solo Q for a while, at least until I find someone I can duo with. I can carry some bad players if I get my position (jungle) but there's only so much I can do at my MMR at that role. Like it doesn't seem to matter if I get 2 kills and farm up a storm in the jungle if by the end of lane phase bot, mid or top feed the enemy, even after I gave them support or a gank.
All I want is to get to Gold, that's it.
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Is there any reason why Tresh Hook has to be immune to getting canceled by displacement effects?
Aka pushing him with Gragus Ulti before the hook leaves his model will still make it get cast.
Why
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On February 12 2014 08:25 Kinie wrote:
You know, I think I"m gonna stop playing solo Q for a while, at least until I find someone I can duo with. I can carry some bad players if I get my position (jungle) but there's only so much I can do at my MMR at that role. Like it doesn't seem to matter if I get 2 kills and farm up a storm in the jungle if by the end of lane phase bot, mid or top feed the enemy, even after I gave them support or a gank.
All I want is to get to Gold, that's it.
Dont worry. It gets no better in Gold.
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On February 12 2014 08:26 Gorsameth wrote:
Is there any reason why Tresh Hook has to be immune to getting canceled by displacement effects?
Aka pushing him with Gragus Ulti before the hook leaves his model will still make it get cast.
Why
This is the case with a lot of spells? Not sure why you're singling thresh out
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I even got last pick as "captain" (I was the one inviting) when duoing with a guy that's atleast 4-5 divisions above me. So the whole "captain always gets first pick if one of you does" certainly isn't implemented. We've also been fp/lp all five games today so I highly doubt it's random.
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On February 12 2014 07:17 Celial wrote:
Runes/Masteries for Aatrox and Darius? For Nocturne I'm going to try Ninjakens guide.
I just go ad reds/quints armor yellows mr blues. Prob not perfect but close enough, since it isn't my main role. (Darius)
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On February 12 2014 08:26 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2014 08:25 Kinie wrote:
You know, I think I"m gonna stop playing solo Q for a while, at least until I find someone I can duo with. I can carry some bad players if I get my position (jungle) but there's only so much I can do at my MMR at that role. Like it doesn't seem to matter if I get 2 kills and farm up a storm in the jungle if by the end of lane phase bot, mid or top feed the enemy, even after I gave them support or a gank.
All I want is to get to Gold, that's it. Dont worry. It gets no better in Gold.
And then gets even worse in Platinum
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On February 12 2014 08:09 GhandiEAGLE wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2014 07:55 Yezzus wrote:
Is it me or does the new champ look really awesome? His kit seems pretty interesting too I'm just waiting patiently until TL ruins this guy for me too. Every time, I'm like "OMG this champ looks so rad" and then the unstoppable wave of cynicism makes me feel bad. At least it's not as bad as the movie forums.
I think the new champ looks pretty awesome. Feels like he can do some awesome plays with his Q(? 90 degrees one)
Edit:
On February 12 2014 08:30 ArchAngelSC wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2014 08:26 Gorsameth wrote:On February 12 2014 08:25 Kinie wrote:
You know, I think I"m gonna stop playing solo Q for a while, at least until I find someone I can duo with. I can carry some bad players if I get my position (jungle) but there's only so much I can do at my MMR at that role. Like it doesn't seem to matter if I get 2 kills and farm up a storm in the jungle if by the end of lane phase bot, mid or top feed the enemy, even after I gave them support or a gank.
All I want is to get to Gold, that's it. Dont worry. It gets no better in Gold. And then gets even worse in Platinum
It's the best in Bronze. JUST GET YOURSELF DEMOTED EZPZ
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Xerath was unsatisfying to play, they rework him..
new ult looks like flicking marbles at your enemy...plink plink plink
also E projectile doesn't match hitbox at all, and lack of detonation effect makes it hard to see if you hit them or it got creepblocked when you have to immediately follow up with WQ.
also Q can't be instantly fired by pressing QQ like vi's can, which is odd and annoying.
EDIT: ok you can QQ, but not with high ping, obnoxious
EDIT: ok you can QQ but not too fast...they should really fix that
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EPT
