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Drafted this paladin deck.
+ Show Spoiler +![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Fj5uAjF.png) +tyrion, war golem and a rocketeer
Made a bad decision in my first loss, second I just didn't draw any of my truesilvers early enough to matter =(.
But this deck has been pretty sick so far, 4 true silvers gives you so much board control and healing, makes it amazing even against burn mages where you can just go for the face to heal if needed and keep playing truesilvers. Hopefully this goes further than 8, but I'm happy with this already.
Ended 9-1. Pretty happy overall, although losing twice to mages does suck.
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After getting 5 wins max in arena a couple times, I randomly went on a 12-2 run. It gave me a ton of gold.
The deck (+2 flamestrikes, and argent commander):
+ Show Spoiler +
Prizes:
+ Show Spoiler +
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Well I started an arena run at 1:00 am, figuring that I would lose fairly quickly, shower and then sleep. 8-2 now with lock, 3 hours later @_@ and I have to get up at 9.
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On December 16 2013 21:01 Amui wrote:
Well I started an arena run at 1:00 am, figuring that I would lose fairly quickly, shower and then sleep. 8-2 now with lock, 3 hours later @_@ and I have to get up at 9.
Just to be sure, you know you don't have to play on one session? 
But don't press the "retire" button. Good luck if you are still at it, or have a good sleep.
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Decided to start an arena last night with Shaman, started with 0-2, ended up being 9-2 with only a Lightning Storm and a Rockbiter weapon as the only spells in the deck. The only other shaman card was an Earth Elemental.
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My last three arenas are:
9 wins, 120 gold
5 wins, 0 gold
11 wins, 220 gold
I don't know why I seem to get so little gold per arena.
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On December 17 2013 01:16 fdsdfg wrote:
My last three arenas are:
9 wins, 120 gold
5 wins, 0 gold
11 wins, 220 gold
I don't know why I seem to get so little gold per arena.
9 wins and 120 gold? How is that possible? I thought having 7+ wins guaranteed at least 150 gold.
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On December 17 2013 01:28 scFoX wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2013 01:16 fdsdfg wrote:
My last three arenas are:
9 wins, 120 gold
5 wins, 0 gold
11 wins, 220 gold
I don't know why I seem to get so little gold per arena. 9 wins and 120 gold? How is that possible? I thought having 7+ wins guaranteed at least 150 gold.
I thought so too! I believe it was a bag of gold, a jar of dust, and a pack.
The 11 wins was a bag of gold, a jar of dust, a golden common, and a pack. I was all excited after seeing screenshots of 12 wins getting 400+ gold
I wonder if it's normalized because I win a lot in arenas, and my gold has been over 1000 for a while
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6-3 as paladin with a pretty strong deck: 3 Truesilvers, 2 Consecrate, 2 Argent Protector, 2 Blessed Hammer, lots of draw. I think i kept some bad hands in my losses which lead to slow starts that i couldn't dig my way out of (mulled a Consecrate vs a Warlock, lost because i didn't draw it later). Had some issues with lack of plays on turn 2-3, it seemed most of the meat of the deck was turns 4-6. Maybe this is common for Pally though? I would say one of the losses was unpreventable vs a Mage with 2 of every board clear and removal and card draw and burn, but the others could have been played better. Reward was about 125 gold, a pack (contained 1 gold card), and a card.
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On December 17 2013 01:30 fdsdfg wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2013 01:28 scFoX wrote:On December 17 2013 01:16 fdsdfg wrote:
My last three arenas are:
9 wins, 120 gold
5 wins, 0 gold
11 wins, 220 gold
I don't know why I seem to get so little gold per arena. 9 wins and 120 gold? How is that possible? I thought having 7+ wins guaranteed at least 150 gold. I thought so too! I believe it was a bag of gold, a jar of dust, and a pack. The 11 wins was a bag of gold, a jar of dust, a golden common, and a pack. I was all excited after seeing screenshots of 12 wins getting 400+ gold I wonder if it's normalized because I win a lot in arenas, and my gold has been over 1000 for a while
Pretty sure 9 wins gives you 4 boxes. My last one ended 9-3 with 150g, 125g, 35g, and 1 pack.
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I have the idea you get less gold now, went 12-1 on the first run post patch and only got 250 and 2 gold commons (at least the pack had an unique). 5-3 bomb draft afterwards gave me 100 gold. Any site where this is datamined? or is just better for low results, worse for high results now? I can understand it if they want to make it harder to go infinite while making it less harsh for newer players.
Is there any rating or current score matching on going on by the way? Arena can be slightly boring because the competition is so incredibly bad, even if you're 9-1 and face opponents you still see these awkward moves of them burning you while you still have 30 life and a good target on board etc. When starting this I would expect this game to be the type of game where you go 55-60% wins if you're really good but not higher because it's just too much luck, but the average player is so astonishingly bad that you can go much higher without being good, to the point where it's less fun because of it.
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thanks used that arenamastery date to figure out the winpercentage needed to go infinite.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Fir8xF7.jpg)
I used the negative binomial distribution to calculate the probabilities for getting X wins given your win percentage and then just took the inproduct of that vector with the average payouts in gold taken from arenamastery to get the expected value for a given win percentage.
This is not completely valid if arena has some sort of matching going on based on general rating or your current arena score but I doubt that is the case. If it is the variance in the wins amount is basically reduced which has some effect on the expected value but not one i can directly guess how exactly.
Result shown in the plot which shows that the 'going infinite' point seems to lie around 73% win percentage now, which feels doable with the current level of competition but I assume get's really hard to impossible later on.
Getting the bonus each day and winning three games generates 50 gold daily though I guess so if you're content with 1 arena a day you can keep that up with a ~63% win percentage, probably the way i'll be playing this game.
edit: data seems not very reliable as the reddit post and arenamaster vary a fair bit, obviously more at the unlikely outcomes. It's also fairly likely that the reported outcomes suffer from recall/selection bias where for example very high outcomes are more likely to be reported. If so the needed win percentage is obviously even higher still.
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5-3 run as Shaman. Drafted Lorewalker Cho, confused the hell out of a few people. Managed to get a swipe and 2 starfalls from a druid that refused to kill it. Lost though because I had a total of 2 spells in my deck and 0 lightning storms.
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I'm no expert at arenas, Hier, but I know that you want more 2-drops than that. You only have two minions that you'd actually want to play on turn 2! This means it's likely you'll have a bad start each game, forfeiting board control and playing from behind from the get-go.
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So I'm up in cards, health, and board in this game. Mage vs Hunter. I'm at 18 hp.
My board consists of a Stranglethorn Tiger, Water Elemental, Harvest Golem, and that shitty 2-7 turtle.
His board consists of the 2-7 shit turtle (I mirror imaged).
He has 3 cards in hand.
Plays UtH.
Gets 4 1-1's.
Plays Timber Wolf. 4 2-1's.
Plays another Timber Wolf. 4 3-1's.
4 damage from turtle + 12 damage from 4 hounds + 2 damage steady shot is exactly my HP.
I couldn't even believe it when it happened. I just sort of stared at the screen for awhile.
I just ended up 3-3 from it.
To make matters worse, the previous loss was to a top deck nightblade (the 4-4 w/ BC: 3 hero damage) from a shaman when I have lethal and taunt on board.
It was a bad arena run.
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First ever run (probably played it too soon), went 4-3, with two of the losses being super-close.
I can definitely see problems in my drafting, and quite a few misplays, but I really enjoyed it. Got 50 gold, an expert pack and some dust, so I guess that's slightly better than just buying an expert pack.
Want to play again immediately...
Edit: and did, but sadly only went 3-3. A lot of the time it's due to ignorance and I get caught out by cards I didn't know existed. But in general I'm quite impressed with the standard of play - quite a lot of solid players on here.
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If you want to build a collection, arenas break even with buying packs around 3 wins.
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First one was a 3-3 as warrior
2nd 4-3 as druid
Currently 1-1 as warlock
1 pack both times and about 70 gold.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/2sRE6ph.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/3pTyaIE.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/xqxR8Ef.jpg?1)
