Iranian protests - Page 18

The official result in Iran's disputed presidential election could plausibly reflect the will of the people, a group of international pollsters says.

An independent poll three weeks ago had Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ahead of his closest rival by a similar 2:1 ratio.

The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin – greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.

While western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.

Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, pre-election polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organisations from 11 May to 20 May was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighbouring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.

The breadth of Ahmadinejad's support was apparent in our pre-election survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasised his identity as an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favoured Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1 over Mousavi.

Much commentary has portrayed Iranian youth and the internet as harbingers of change in this election. But our poll found that only a third of Iranians even have access to the internet, while 18-to-24-year-olds comprised the strongest voting bloc for Ahmadinejad of all age groups.

The only demographic groups in which our survey found Mousavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians. When our poll was taken, almost a third of Iranians were also still undecided. Yet the baseline distributions we found then mirror the results reported by the Iranian authorities, indicating the possibility that the vote is not the product of widespread fraud.

On June 17 2009 09:10 frankbg wrote:
Lol, Iran might be bad but what I see from American police and military force in terms of suppressing dissent is pretty much the same. America is just smoother in it's approach. The sheep are loving their chains and claiming they represent their freedom.

On June 17 2009 09:12 choboPEon wrote:


You obviously see nothing from America

I think you need to take off your rose-colored glasses. Every reports coming out of the United States in the last few years have been indicating a decline in press freedom and increase in police abuse of political protests.

Sure, you don't shoot the protesters down but you charge them just as easily. The only way you can protest in the U.S. without getting in trouble is if you walk on the sidewalk. Maybe you should go to one of these protest sometime and see that your country isn't all that much greater than Iran when freedom is regarded.

people are asked to keep their cells off when protesting as their number can be identified by intelligence ministry. #iranelection

The most circulated email today was asking people to keep their door open for those escaping from riot police #iranelection

5:15am, we're ready to go checking out university & Dorms. masood suggested karoubi's party HQ will be a good & safe place to get some news

Government people are wearing green shirts destroying public properties at night & filming them & they all wear the same shirt!

new round of effort by Ministry of Intelligence&National Security to locate/arrest internet activists. #iranelection

On June 17 2009 09:10 frankbg wrote:
Lol, Iran might be bad but what I see from American police and military force in terms of suppressing dissent is pretty much the same. America is just smoother in it's approach. The sheep are loving their chains and claiming they represent their freedom.

On June 17 2009 07:26 Last Romantic wrote:


While not an expert on the matter, I consider myself fairly well read in general; I can identify most national capitals tyvm and have at least basic understanding of most international politics [being a student of the 2nd-best political science program in the nation]. I am not some ignorant punk just mouthing off about anything and everything.

I only used that reference to explain how I can understand Farsi-written sources despite not knowing the language myself. Don't give me that shit.

No one in their right mind can believe" the official results from Friday's contest, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri said of the landslide victory claimed by Ahmadinejad

"A government not respecting people's vote has no religious or political legitimacy," he declared in comments on his official Web site. "I ask the police and army personals (personnel) not to 'sell their religion,' and beware that receiving orders will not excuse them before God."

On June 17 2009 08:58 Jibba wrote:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/jun/15/iran-election-polling

There's another poll for you.

On June 17 2009 11:06 Xeris wrote:


1) Being "well read" doesn't make you an expert, or even qualified to be in an informed discussion about Iranian politics

2) What does knowing national capitals and having a basic understand of international politics have to do with this? We're talking specifically about Iranian politics here.

3) What does being a student in Cal's poli sci program mean? Are you somehow better or more qualified than me because your school is ranked 2nd and mine is ranked 6th? Have you written a 100 page thesis on Iran? How many books specifically have you read about Iranian politics? How often do you read Iranian news sites, and how often do you ask your Iranian best friend "hey what's the latest goings on in Iran?" I bet the answer to those questions are No, None, and Rarely.

Just because you can look at a few random websites and find some numbers and try to insinuate that they make claims and you're somehow more qualified than me to know what you're talking about is pretty insulting, especially since I'm graduated with honors and literally spent the entire year learning about Iran in depth, etc etc (I've already said my qualifications). Just because I'm not quoting random websites doesn't mean I'm pulling these things out of my ass.

Obviously nobody in this thread is supposed to take my word as law, but at least look at it from a logical perspective and perhaps you can see I'm making reasoned and logical posts. Funny how until someone with a red-bolded name criticized me not many other people in this thread were doing it. Red names don't make you an authority on a subject.