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The Goddamn Economy: A Civilized Version - Page 42

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Choros
Profile Joined September 2007
Australia530 Posts
March 28 2009 02:43 GMT
#821
On March 25 2009 18:24 The Storyteller wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 25 2009 18:01 Choros wrote:
To get 'credit flowing again' is basically an attempt to get people to start borrowing money again for general consumption, this will not fix anything, but it will make the problems even worse in the long run.

The Banks already have around $8-9 Trillion sitting in their pocket they could lend out of they wanted too but they cannot / will not as they know that no one has the capacity to sustain a higher level of debt, and the people know they cannot afford to borrow any more thus credit has stopped flowing.

The only real solution to the American economic crisis is to fix the crisis of incomes and thus far this issue has not been adequately addressed rather they have placed most of their focus on attempting to sustain the debt bubble which is covering up the income crisis which is the real problem and attempts to create short term demand which again does basically nothing to fix the real problem.


I totally agree that income levels are insufficient to service debt, and also that there's a big, big, difference between increasing debt and getting credit flowing.

But I thought the main point of "getting credit flowing again" was more to get credit to businesses which would in turn create jobs and value for the economy, thus getting it moving again, not so much to get it into the hands of consumers and increase their debt even more.

Yes this may sound good but in practice it doesn't really work. The Bush administration carried out some incentives for investment but all that did was reward investment already taking place (which isnt a bad thing) but it did nothing to actually create more investment.

You have this suggestion that in order to create more jobs we need to create more investment but it doesn't really work this way.

Basically it goes like this;
Demand > Investment > Supply > Consumption
You cannot skip the demand step and expand investment and thus supply. No firm will invest in increasing output when they know that demand is weak. The problem today is not that there is too little 'liquidity' there are trillions of dollars that could be lent and invested but none of that investment will take place without demand there in the first instance.

If you can deal with the demand issue then and only then will firms start to invest in productive output and thus hire more workers.
TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-28 02:59:29
March 28 2009 02:55 GMT
#822
On March 28 2009 11:43 Choros wrote:
Basically it goes like this;
Demand > Investment > Supply > Consumption


This is easily remedied by an immediate across the board decline in all price - especially housing prices. Then just shove everyone through bankruptcy court. Liquidate everyone and cram down on the secondary and tertiary loan claims and put a few Wall Street Investment banks out of business.

Ohh and you're missing the precursor to demand. Usually it goes something like this:
(Savings/Income) -> Demand.

Americans unfortunately don't have savings and have an awful income - remember all that debt that they accumulated. So the lack of demand is here to stay.
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Choros
Profile Joined September 2007
Australia530 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-28 03:04:44
March 28 2009 03:04 GMT
#823

I would also like to hear about this demolition of the public sector and how it contributed to the crisis. Can you elaborate a little bit more on this one?

Sure well the best example of this is the health care system. Why is it the case that the United States pays significantly more on health care than anyone else. If you are in France or Australia or any other western country you do not have to worry about paying for health care. The notion that getting sick might lead to financial ruin is alien to us. The reason that America pays so much more on health care than we do is because the health care system is wildly inefficient. This is in part the consequence of attempting to privatize health. A private company running for a profit with an inelastic demand curve (as health has) will lead to very high prices as they maximize profit. Medical corporations in the United States sucks hundreds of billions of dollars out of the economy, at the same time they pay nurses sub par wages and under staff institutions also depriving individuals of money they would otherwise use on general consumption.

What I just said still does not adequately address the question though so I will give another example, in California they fired every art, music and drama teacher in their school system and many of their science teachers as well. The impact this has upon education is significant but in my mind irrelevant, the consequence that really counts is a reduction in the levels of employment and thus demand, by firing workers out of the public sector there are more workers competing for jobs in the private sector whilst the number of jobs available is if anything smaller. More workers competing for less jobs leads to falling wages. Infact when the crisis first began the sector of the economy with the highest job losses was the public sector where hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost as states around the country fired workers in order to reduce costs and attempt to get a surplus budget which greatly exacerbated the recession.

But the deterioration of the public sector is nothing new and can be traced back to the Reagan administration. The persistent attempt to reduce public spending on institutions lead to job losses and falling real incomes in the public sector whilst pushing more workers into the private sector which again pushed down wages in that area as well. Job losses go further than just teachers etc but also tradesmen who would otherwise have been repairing schools gutters and whatever but instead they have not been. There are more than a trillion dollars worth of 'deferred maintenance' in the United States which again has lead to deteriorating incomes for workers which in turn has weakened the demand base of the economy.

I do not point to the deterioration of the public sector as cause no.1 but it certainly has made matters worse.
Choros
Profile Joined September 2007
Australia530 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-28 03:16:32
March 28 2009 03:15 GMT
#824

This is easily remedied by an immediate across the board decline in all price - especially housing prices. Then just shove everyone through bankruptcy court. Liquidate everyone and cram down on the secondary and tertiary loan claims and put a few Wall Street Investment banks out of business.

This really is the only viable solution to the financial crisis but it does not help much in terms of the real economic crisis.

Ohh and you're missing the precursor to demand. Usually it goes something like this:
(Savings/Income) -> Demand.
Americans unfortunately don't have savings and have an awful income - remember all that debt that they accumulated. So the lack of demand is here to stay.

Indeed well you can say that low saving > low incomes > lower savings, a deteriorating cycle. However this relationship only really applies to the private sector, the Government can and must (but really isnt) significantly increase wages of public sector workers and hire more workers into the public sector which will then flow on to push up the private sector as well.

It worked in the 1930's and it can work again. People say oh the fiscal stimulus failed to create jobs in the 30's claiming that the unemployment rate was still 10-15% after the fiscal stimulus, they ignore the fact that unemployment went above 20% prior to it. You can break the downward cycle through prudent steps by the public sector.

Repairing labor market policy must be carried out but this will have no impact upon an economy in a recession, this will only come to help you after you have already created a recovery, either through intervention now or letting the recession play out but this may lead to almost complete economic destruction and this is neither necessary or prudent.

I disagree with the popular consensus that the stimulus must have the 3 T's, Temporary, Targeted and Timely.

The notion that the stimulus should be Temporary is to suggest there is actually nothing wrong with the economy and on that I disagree entirely.

Really one of the main reasons for the massive deficit is far far too many tax cuts. For example capital gains tax was reduced from 25% to 15% and so on across the board, this again makes matter more difficult to address.
TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-03-28 11:16:30
March 28 2009 03:34 GMT
#825
On March 28 2009 12:04 Choros wrote:
Sure well the best example of this is the health care system. Why is it the case that the United States pays significantly more on health care than anyone else. If you are in France or Australia or any other western country you do not have to worry about paying for health care. The notion that getting sick might lead to financial ruin is alien to us. The reason that America pays so much more on health care than we do is because the health care system is wildly inefficient. This is in part the consequence of attempting to privatize health. A private company running for a profit with an inelastic demand curve (as health has) will lead to very high prices as they maximize profit. Medical corporations in the United States sucks hundreds of billions of dollars out of the economy, at the same time they pay nurses sub par wages and under staff institutions also depriving individuals of money they would otherwise use on general consumption.


This is absolutely silly. The rising health care costs has tracked with increasing involvement of the government in health care. We have the byzantine medical administrative paperwork. LBJ graced us with Medicare and Medicaid. We have the introduction of "corporate health insurance" encouraged in the IRS code introduced by Ted Kennedy. That movement evolved into state level mandatory coverage levels and government regulation in the form of uniform group rates.

The result is we have a gigantic moral hazard in the health care insurance industry which the corporate health insurance industry tries to minimize by harassing doctors and patients to justify their health care expenditures. These health insurance industries then make massive profits because it's almost impossible for anybody else to figure out how to minimize the moral hazard and still get people willing to pay for health insurance. Then we get the silly mandatory health insurance law in Massachusetts which is the equivalent of a massive giveaway to the health insurance industry because "health insurance" is so unaffordable.

The bottom line is that people don't need health insurance for activities like annual checkups, family doctor visits, fevers and colds, and other common ailments. They need only insurance for the unforeseeable disasters like contracting cancer, emergency room service, and many post-operation complications.

The idea that health care demand is inelastic is absurd. It's especially absurd for preventive care. Thanks to insurance, few people engage in proper preventive care, because preventive care is expensive compared to what it's designed to prevent - at least for the consumer. The insurance agencies feel the pain on their bottom line, so they have all these programs to entice people to engage in preventive medicine. The idea of health insurance has completely undermined price sensitivity.

At the other end of the spectrum is AMA preventing nurses and other licensed practitioners from dispensing simple health care. Oh noes! You always need a doctor on site! It doesn't matter that most of the service was actually provided by the nurse, the doctor somehow still has to be there. Then, the AMA restricts the number of doctors that can graduate every single year. And people wonder why interns at hospitals are worked to death (80 hours a week!) and provide bad health care because they are always so tired.

BTW the public sector is too big - especially the National "Defense" industry. Health care and education are a distant second and third.
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TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
March 28 2009 03:43 GMT
#826
On March 28 2009 12:15 Choros wrote:
Indeed well you can say that low saving > low incomes > lower savings, a deteriorating cycle. However this relationship only really applies to the private sector, the Government can and must (but really isnt) significantly increase wages of public sector workers and hire more workers into the public sector which will then flow on to push up the private sector as well.

You forget that there's is the rest of the world out there. The same people who loaned us their money would likewise provide the balance of the demand. America needs to start exporting.


It worked in the 1930's and it can work again. People say oh the fiscal stimulus failed to create jobs in the 30's claiming that the unemployment rate was still 10-15% after the fiscal stimulus, they ignore the fact that unemployment went above 20% prior to it. You can break the downward cycle through prudent steps by the public sector.


It did not work, because recovery is all about sustainability. The fact that the government borrowed money to employ 5% of the population to move unemployment from 20% to 15% doesn't mean a damn thing. That employment was the result of unsustainable government involvement. Take away the unsustainable government involvement and you still had 20% unemployment.

That means that the government involvement had no positive benefit. Factor in the phenomenon that the economy generally recovers slowly on its own, and the conclusion is that the government got in the way of the recovery. In fact you see it in 1937 when the first New Deal ended and the economy promptly spiraled into an echo depression with unemployment touching 20% again.

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Choros
Profile Joined September 2007
Australia530 Posts
March 28 2009 04:47 GMT
#827
On March 28 2009 12:43 TanGeng wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 28 2009 12:15 Choros wrote:
Indeed well you can say that low saving > low incomes > lower savings, a deteriorating cycle. However this relationship only really applies to the private sector, the Government can and must (but really isnt) significantly increase wages of public sector workers and hire more workers into the public sector which will then flow on to push up the private sector as well.

You forget that there's is the rest of the world out there. The same people who loaned us their money would likewise provide the balance of the demand. America needs to start exporting.

Show nested quote +

It worked in the 1930's and it can work again. People say oh the fiscal stimulus failed to create jobs in the 30's claiming that the unemployment rate was still 10-15% after the fiscal stimulus, they ignore the fact that unemployment went above 20% prior to it. You can break the downward cycle through prudent steps by the public sector.


It did not work, because recovery is all about sustainability. The fact that the government borrowed money to employ 5% of the population to move unemployment from 20% to 15% doesn't mean a damn thing. That employment was the result of unsustainable government involvement. Take away the unsustainable government involvement and you still had 20% unemployment.

That means that the government involvement had no positive benefit. Factor in the phenomenon that the economy generally recovers slowly on its own, and the conclusion is that the government got in the way of the recovery. In fact you see it in 1937 when the first New Deal ended and the economy promptly spiraled into an echo depression with unemployment touching 20% again.


Well it was sustainable as the increased income equality and institutional strength remained to the benefit of the American economy right up to 1980 when it started to be undone and the United States started to go backwards.

Your right that the United States needs to start exporting there is considerable distortion in production and consumption patterns in the world. The developing world basically produces everything and the west consumes it. The developing world has been relying upon export driven growth and low labor costs is the foundation of their international competitiveness thus they have been holding down their wage growth in order to maintain that competitiveness but the consequence of this is that they have been preventing real economic development as the income growth and domestic demand has remained weak thus when export demand dropped off it lead to significant recession in the developing world as they do not have a domestic demand engine to keep their economies growing.

The developing world however has largely realised this now and are actively adopting policies designed to increase domestic demand and domestic wages. The Chinese for example are passing several laws designed to protect workers for example if you fire a worker in China today you need to pay them wages for a couple months based off how long you had them employed. The business lobby doesn't like it but the communist party just said too bad. The Chinese too are creating a social safety net along with various other measures designed to strengthen domestic demand. Basically they are doing what I would advocate we in the west do as well.

In my opinion you should not worry about the global economy only the domestic, if all nations deal with their domestic issues this will combine to resolve the global issues in the process, the way things are going today we should see considerable improvement in trade patterns and a boost in American exports but this can only be achieved if the government carries out policies designed to repair the domestic economy.
TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
March 28 2009 11:38 GMT
#828
On March 28 2009 13:47 Choros wrote:
Well it was sustainable as the increased income equality and institutional strength remained to the benefit of the American economy right up to 1980 when it started to be undone and the United States started to go backwards.


I don't think you understand what happened in the 70's - that decade of stagflation and the misery index. If your idea of institutional strength and income equality involves double digit unemployment and double digit inflation, by all means, America was both "strong" and "equal."
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Choros
Profile Joined September 2007
Australia530 Posts
April 02 2009 06:17 GMT
#829
On March 28 2009 20:38 TanGeng wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 28 2009 13:47 Choros wrote:
Well it was sustainable as the increased income equality and institutional strength remained to the benefit of the American economy right up to 1980 when it started to be undone and the United States started to go backwards.


I don't think you understand what happened in the 70's - that decade of stagflation and the misery index. If your idea of institutional strength and income equality involves double digit unemployment and double digit inflation, by all means, America was both "strong" and "equal."

The inflation of the 1970's was because of significant rises in the price of oil and the government misusing fiscal policy to attempt to achieve macro stability. + Show Spoiler +
If you try to use infrastructure spending to stabilize the business cycle it does not work as it often takes around a year for the spending to hit the economy thus the economy goes down so you increase spending but when it hits the economy the downturn is already over and you make the upturn higher and create more inflation, so you cut spending but that slows the economy when the upturn is over and your in a bust and you make the downturn worse and so on.


What was good about the economy at this time was the consequence of the factors I mentioned, what was bad about the economy was the consequence of other things but unfortunately many economists took the wrong lessons out of this experience in my opinion.
Choros
Profile Joined September 2007
Australia530 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-04-02 06:31:22
April 02 2009 06:30 GMT
#830

This is absolutely silly. The rising health care costs has tracked with increasing involvement of the government in health care. We have the byzantine medical administrative paperwork. LBJ graced us with Medicare and Medicaid.

The American healthcare system is wildly inefficient and in my opinion you need to throw out Medicare and Medicaid and start from scratch. The problem really is that the Government does not do health care its self it pays the private sector to provide health care by subsidising health insurance and such, I don't understand the details of how the American system works. Every other developed country which has a centralized public health system spends far far less then the United States does on health care as you can decrease costs by removing profits and gaining economies of scale. Health care is a clear cut example of the private sector being less efficient than government (provided that the Government does it job properly which in America it is not). Every time you have inelastic demand (and health is almost perfectly inelastic) then profit maximizers will generally lead to market failure as a consequence.

Elasticity description:
+ Show Spoiler +
Basically elasticity of demand or supply means how much output/consumption changes as price changes. If an apple costs $1 I will buy it, if it costs $5 I will not maybe ill buy a pear instead or something, this means that it has relatively elastic demand. As price goes up demand falls quickly and vice versa. On the other hand if life saving treatment costs $1000 I will pay it, if it costs $100,000 I will pay that, if it costs a million I will pay that too and so on until such time as I run out of money. This means that the quantity demanded does not change much as price changes and thus a profit maximizer will increase prices to generate more profits. The private health industry in the United States runs at huge profit margins and the economy suffers because of it.
Choros
Profile Joined September 2007
Australia530 Posts
April 02 2009 06:39 GMT
#831

The idea that health care demand is inelastic is absurd. It's especially absurd for preventive care. Thanks to insurance, few people engage in proper preventive care, because preventive care is expensive compared to what it's designed to prevent - at least for the consumer.
It is the reliance on insurance which creates all these problems, the insurence broker too makes profits thus increasing overall costs, and yes preventitive care is elastic thats a problem cause the high costs have lead to people not getting propper treatment.

The idea of health insurance has completely undermined price sensitivity.
I am inclined to agree on this.

BTW the public sector is too big - especially the National "Defense" industry. Health care and education are a distant second and third.

The public sector is too big, especially the defense industry. You can increase the amount you are spending in terms of its impact whilst reducing spending in nominal terms by around 30% possibly more in my opinion.
TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
April 02 2009 15:06 GMT
#832
On April 02 2009 15:30 Choros wrote:
Elasticity description:
+ Show Spoiler +
Basically elasticity of demand or supply means how much output/consumption changes as price changes. If an apple costs $1 I will buy it, if it costs $5 I will not maybe ill buy a pear instead or something, this means that it has relatively elastic demand. As price goes up demand falls quickly and vice versa. On the other hand if life saving treatment costs $1000 I will pay it, if it costs $100,000 I will pay that, if it costs a million I will pay that too and so on until such time as I run out of money. This means that the quantity demanded does not change much as price changes and thus a profit maximizer will increase prices to generate more profits. The private health industry in the United States runs at huge profit margins and the economy suffers because of it.


I'm pretty sure that some elderly folks would elect to die than spend $1 million dollars for a chance to keep them alive.

That said, if it it costs that much money to provide the care then the private health industry should charge that much. There is no point in deceiving the public on the costs of treatment and going bankrupt.

But the idea that private health industry would make huge profits suggests that providing the care is much less than what the consumer pays. Where does come from?

Did some corporate entity get monopoly rights over providing health care? Where did the competition go? If the consumers aren't price sensitive, how about the producers? They should be price sensitive.
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TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
April 02 2009 15:10 GMT
#833
On April 02 2009 15:17 Choros wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 28 2009 20:38 TanGeng wrote:
On March 28 2009 13:47 Choros wrote:
Well it was sustainable as the increased income equality and institutional strength remained to the benefit of the American economy right up to 1980 when it started to be undone and the United States started to go backwards.


I don't think you understand what happened in the 70's - that decade of stagflation and the misery index. If your idea of institutional strength and income equality involves double digit unemployment and double digit inflation, by all means, America was both "strong" and "equal."

The inflation of the 1970's was because of significant rises in the price of oil and the government misusing fiscal policy to attempt to achieve macro stability. + Show Spoiler +
If you try to use infrastructure spending to stabilize the business cycle it does not work as it often takes around a year for the spending to hit the economy thus the economy goes down so you increase spending but when it hits the economy the downturn is already over and you make the upturn higher and create more inflation, so you cut spending but that slows the economy when the upturn is over and your in a bust and you make the downturn worse and so on.


What was good about the economy at this time was the consequence of the factors I mentioned, what was bad about the economy was the consequence of other things but unfortunately many economists took the wrong lessons out of this experience in my opinion.


Wait a second.
There was NO recovery in 1970's. The economy never recovered. It was stagflation any time, all the time. The economy indeed stabilized, but the economy was never healthy. It had an equilibrium with 10%+ unemployment. On top of that, the government kept spending and inflating to the tune of 10%+ inflation rate and did some stupid stuff like price controls and start the drug war.

There is no separation of the good consequences and the bad consequences. The adverse effects of debt/inflation financing is the direct consequence of infrastructure spending. If there is a lot of public spending, there will either be high taxes, high deficits, or high inflation. All three are larger drains on the economy than the "stimulus" that public spending provides. And the idea that politicians would get the correct timing for stimulus and surplus is preposterous. Politicians are the worst decision makers in the economy. In fact, politicians have only learned one lesson, stimulate, stimulate, stimulate.

The economists are pretty stupid, too.
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TanGeng
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Sanya12364 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-04-03 11:38:13
April 02 2009 15:30 GMT
#834
double post
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Vex
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Ireland454 Posts
April 02 2009 15:54 GMT
#835
you think your all making some kinda difference? theres nothing any of you can do to stop/help the economic situation. it is what it is. bitching and making HUGE posts is not helping anyone or anything. just warping the minds and oppinions of people with no free will, which happens way too much and is possibly the main cause of stupidity being so rampant on the internet these days. so just give it a rest will ya? 42 pages of this shit is just over the top completely.
"Bonjwa" is the most retarded word ever. Wtf does it even sound like.
gchan
Profile Joined October 2007
United States654 Posts
April 03 2009 04:54 GMT
#836
On April 03 2009 00:54 Vex wrote:
you think your all making some kinda difference? theres nothing any of you can do to stop/help the economic situation. it is what it is. bitching and making HUGE posts is not helping anyone or anything. just warping the minds and oppinions of people with no free will, which happens way too much and is possibly the main cause of stupidity being so rampant on the internet these days. so just give it a rest will ya? 42 pages of this shit is just over the top completely.


Ignorance is the sanctuary of the apathetic.
gchan
Profile Joined October 2007
United States654 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-04-03 05:03:47
April 03 2009 05:00 GMT
#837
On April 02 2009 15:17 Choros wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 28 2009 20:38 TanGeng wrote:
On March 28 2009 13:47 Choros wrote:
Well it was sustainable as the increased income equality and institutional strength remained to the benefit of the American economy right up to 1980 when it started to be undone and the United States started to go backwards.


I don't think you understand what happened in the 70's - that decade of stagflation and the misery index. If your idea of institutional strength and income equality involves double digit unemployment and double digit inflation, by all means, America was both "strong" and "equal."

The inflation of the 1970's was because of significant rises in the price of oil and the government misusing fiscal policy to attempt to achieve macro stability. + Show Spoiler +
If you try to use infrastructure spending to stabilize the business cycle it does not work as it often takes around a year for the spending to hit the economy thus the economy goes down so you increase spending but when it hits the economy the downturn is already over and you make the upturn higher and create more inflation, so you cut spending but that slows the economy when the upturn is over and your in a bust and you make the downturn worse and so on.


What was good about the economy at this time was the consequence of the factors I mentioned, what was bad about the economy was the consequence of other things but unfortunately many economists took the wrong lessons out of this experience in my opinion.


The rampant inflation of the 1970s started because of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Having all the world's major currencies pegged to the USD coupled with rapid growth in the EEC grossly underscored the pegged rates that was going at the time. Toss in a dash of terrible monetary policy, inflated union labor wages, and a war looming on the horizon, and not surprisingly, the USD collapsed. That is not to say that what you pointed out didn't perpetuate the inflation, but you forgot a very important component.
a-game
Profile Blog Joined December 2004
Canada5085 Posts
April 03 2009 05:51 GMT
#838
kind of spammy but i got a chuckle out of it

[image loading]
you wouldnt feel that way if it was your magical sword of mantouchery that got stolen - racebannon • I am merely guest #13,678!
fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-01 09:49:27
April 01 2013 09:15 GMT
#839
4.5 years later. Here is the state of the economy. wow.
It's difficult to process it all and get through it, I recommend pacing yourself. A lot of these statistics are unbelievable.



Sources: http://board.freedomainradio.com/forums/t/37829.aspx






And here's where we are on the international side of things right now:

+ Show Spoiler +
USDollar: Ring-Fenced & Checkmate



By: Jim Willie CB, GoldenJackass.com


-- Posted Friday, 29 March 2013 | | Source: GoldSeek.com

An unstoppable sequence of events has been put into motion finally. The pressure has been building for months. Some themes are plainly evident, except to those who wear rose colored glasses in the US Dome of Perception. The USTreasury Bond will be brought home to the US and British banks, where it will choke its bankers, then be devalued for survival reasons, after a painful isolation. The Chinese and Russians will conspire to finance the Eurasian Trade Zone corridor foundation with USTBonds, held in reserve, put to usage. The British will play a very unusual role, selling out the United States in order to be squires to the Eastern Duo. The process has begun; it cannot be stopped. The events are already being grossly misinterpreted and minimized in the US press, where devoted lapdogs, artistic swindlers, and creative writers prevail. The Paradigm Shift eastward is showing its next face, with a truly massive trade zone for cooperation and reduced cost overhead as the giant foundation. The Untied States for all of its past hegemony and devious manipulations and vicious attacks, will be excluded. The British will assist in the exclusion in order to avoid the Third World themselves. The following blueprint is the result of years of planning, with steady information and hints and confirmations by at least two Hat Trick Letter sources. The sunset of the USDollar has a blueprint. As a personal embroidery, let me state that this article is the most important the Jackass has ever written. Let it be taken seriously for its grave somber message.



EURASIAN TRADE ZONE

The crowning blow is the financial centerpiece to the trade zone, which draws upon the critical mass bulk of the BRICS nations as nucleus. Together Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa have begun to form an alliance built upon trade and economic development, forged by investment in infrastructure and its construction. Include Iran and Indonesia to welcome the new BRIIICS nations for a larger Eastern representation. The arterial system of the trade zone will be energy supply, the life blood of commerce. The Eurasian Trade Zone is being formed, with an energy foundation. Important bilateral pacts were made concrete in the last week. Supply of crude oil, natural gas, including LNG, will come from a vast system of pipelines from Russia to Central Europe and from Russia to China. Completed pipelines will flow. Other pipelines will be completed. Crucial pacts have been made final, with more to come. Additional important pipelines along the periphery will be completed also, like the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline, despite the USGovt obstruction and intimidation. New LNG ports will be constructed. Logistics for rail traffic will be agreed upon, for commodity supply. Many features of the trade zone will be worked out, like reduced tariffs, like border inspection methods, like payment systems including barter, like environmental concerns, like regional cooperation.



BRICS DEVELOPMENT BANK

Consider the BRICS Development Bank. It is so much more than a fund to build railroads in remote African locations, as the delusional US press reports. It will form the giant credit line for countless projects upon which trade will be conducted, often called infrastructure, but so much more. It will gradually reveal itself to provide a second function, a core bank for trade payments outside the USDollar sphere. Steps are being made, extremely important steps, that will shape the next chapter. The United States will not play a role. With a trade zone and financial payment structure, the USDollar is to be rendered an outsider looking in, soon to be deemed obsolete. The many emerging nations are coming of age, flexing their muscles, banding together. Their critical mass in trade volume, in industrial output, and in product development, including patent registration, are impressive. In the last two years, they have demonstrated that the G-20 Meeting of finance ministers has totally eclipsed the G-7 Meeting that had dominated for two decades. They are making the next critical step in creating a bank, a global bank whose role will grow and expand. It will operate under the golden glow.


EXCLUSION OF UNITED STATES

The many years of abusive control of the FOREX currency markets, intervention in the sovereign bond markets, manipulation in the important commodity markets, devious propaganda in the communications networks, with support role played by the aggressive USMilitary and nefarious activity by its security agencies have guaranteed exclusion of the United States. The unspeakable abuse of the US$ credit card will end, as the global reserve currency is dismissed from its throne. The US leader crew, led by fascist bankers, can print money and counterfeit bonds all they wish, but the currency will be required to submit to grand devaluation if they wish to purchase supplies for the massively lopsided and imbalanced USEconomy, the greatest travesty in marketplace history. While the Keystone Pipeline is corrupted by the USGovt with hidden beneficiaries such as Halliburton and Burlington Northern, essentially divvying up the gangrenous paunch of the exhausted bloated American torso, the vast pipelines of the European and Asian continents are merging. They will not include the Americans, whose pathetic gambit fell on its face, the Trans-Pacific Partnership pushed by the Obama Admin. It actually attempted to form a trade zone with Asia, on condition that the lead nations Japan and South Korea excluded China. How incredibly moronic and amateurish! What a pathetic return on the dime for votes for this leader in the new police state.



BRITISH BROKER ROLE & INTRIGUE

The British have an historical knack to remain on top of the bank center heap. Earlier this year, when they announced the launch of a Chinese Yuan Swap Facility in London City, they stepped on the New York neck. Never in a million years would South Manhattan serve as the site of a Yuan Swap functionary post, not during a trade war that has a secret hot military war element being played out in Southern African near the horn (see Djibouti). The embattled British Petroleum will retain a 19.75% stake in Rosneft, which is to acquire the significant BP-TBK energy firm in Russia. Both Bank of America and Citigroup are brokering a $55 billion deal that will enable Rosneft to become the world's largest oil company. Several hidden messages are laden within the blockbuster global changing deal by Rosneft. By dissecting the flow, it is clear the BP executive staff is selling out, since not paying dividends. The collateral for the deal toward the loans will come from USTreasury Bonds. The Anglo-American bank complex will in effect be forced to swallow its own high volume of toxic paper. The tainted BP oil giant still reels from the tarnish of the Gulf of Mexico incident. Worse, BP is finally pushed out following its dubious role in the Yeltsin years of Russia. That difficult transition period in the 1990 decade saw a failed attempt by the Western Oil Giants to control Russia and its vast energy wealth. Putin from the KGB said no, and it did not happen on his watch. He assumed the Kremlin top post. Witness a potentially crucial London role in helping the Eurasian Trade Zone, perhaps buying favor to avoid the Third World. The broad exclusion of the United States guarantees a Third World flavor and stench for the North American core, with a Mad Max overtone and a Dachau closet.



DEVIOUS CYPRUS HIDDEN ANGLE

A piece of the financing for the Rosneft deal came from GazpromBank, which operates out of Cyprus. China has posted $30 billion in USTBonds as collateral within the massive deal, in return for ample future crude oil supply. Since Russia will receive a steady flow of payments from China from diverse energy pipeline supply, in the form of USTBond fund flow, the big debt to the London banks will be paid off by USTBonds. The payoff will be in the same terms of the huge collateral. Conclude that the Eurasian Trade Zone will have an energy pipeline and delivery system with loaded supply whose foundation is built upon USTBonds, sent back to the Anglo-American bankers to digest. The USTBonds are going home to die. As Lenin said, the rope to hang themselves will be bought by the capitalists. As footnote, some important toes were stepped on in Cyprus. Expect more entries to the morgue. The event opened the door to dangerous games of brinksmanship.



The timing of the Cyprus bank account tax and confiscation is curious, exactly when the extremely significant summit meeting took place between Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where several big pacts were signed. One is left to wonder if the Cyprus fire was lit by the Europeans in order to attempt to disrupt the Moscow Energy Summit with heavy smoke. It bears repeating. The summit received almost zero Western press coverage, even though its details outline a sunset of the USDollar. Maybe because its details outline a sunset of the USDollar. The Jackass is left to wonder if the next important energy pact with the Eurasian Leader Duo (Russia & China) will involve Saudi Arabia, with a whiff of sunset for the Petro-Dollar defacto standard. Cyprus might indeed have been all about trying to save the Petro-Dollar, more than the European banks. Perhaps the Moscow Summit dictated the Cyprus timetable. The Italian elections to depose Monti, Spanish high level corruption and bankruptcies, and the French backtrack on massive spending cuts, these three nations point to urgency in disaster control. The bank account tax was thrust forward, unmasking the fascist bankers.



USDOLLAR HEGEMONY ENDING

The alternative system to conducting trade outside the USDollar system has had formative stages since the Lehman Brothers and Fannie Mae collapse. The Eastern trade leaders have been very busy quietly constructing a new system, with almost zero press coverage. They prefer to work in the background. Recent events indicate they have chosen the formal public stages and forums with wider visibility, starting with the February G-20 Meeting in Moscow. The true agenda for G-20 finance ministers was to hatch finally the USDollar alternative. The sleepy West appears not to be paying much attention. The initiatives to construct alternative platforms were given a major thrust in the last year since the Iran sanctions led by the USGovt banker and their henchmen in London. For the last 20 years at least, trade has followed banking. Nations of the world have been coerced for three decades into holding USGovt debt securities in order to make payment in trade, most notably in crude oil. With the Grand Arab Recycling accord struck by the 1970 decade leaders, the Petro-Dollar was born in return for a fantastic higher oil price. The oil-rich Arab royalty supported the USDollar by recycling trade surplus into USTreasury Bonds. The conventional practice dictated that global banking systems be dominated by USTBonds in reserves, serving as the banking foundation of debt.



New chapter to turn. The ongoing endless QE to Infinity has hastened Eastern trade leaders. The near 0% return from USTBond yields has motivated them to seek alternatives. They are horrified by the debasement of their hard-earned reserves, filled to the gills with USTBonds of shrinking value and low yield. The new trade settlement system based in Gold finance will turn the tables, as once more trade is to dictate banking. The combination of central bank hyper monetary inflation, big US bank fraud, security agency $100 bill counterfeit, and rampant criminality in the US financial system has motivated the Eastern nations to act. They have acted. The clear outcome is that the Western banking system will topple, since the East will be shoving the USTBonds back to Anglo-American shores for cemetery treatment. Trade should always dictate banking. The major trade partners no longer want US$-based trade settlement. Watch for the crowning blow in the Saudi response soon, since they always follow the winners.



THE CENTERPIECE PLAN

The new BRICS development bank will surely be supplied with USTreasury Bonds at first. The primary seeding is obvious. The emerging nations have collected huge reserves from successful trade over the last decade, primarily held in USTBonds. They do not wish to hold them, since undermined and debased by their own steward at the US Federal Reserve. The big Eastern nations have committed $100 billion for the fund, whose liquidity lies in USTBonds. On a gradual ramp, the USTBonds will be converted to Gold bars for the core bank asset in the development fund. Some of the 6000 metric tons of Gold bullion removed from London banks by the Eastern entities from March to July 2012 might find their way into the BRICS Fund core. The initial role of funding critical important projects like pipelines, communication networks, railroads, shipping ports, ships & trucks, perhaps even energy transfer ports, will become clear. The more overarching role of forming a (Eastern) global core central bank clearing house for payment transactions will be its second dual role. The emerging nations have had their fill of the USDollar control mechanisms with the SWIFT bank structure, the Intl Monetary Fund steering committee, and others. Finally, Gold Trade Notes would be used in trade settlement. Witness the new Eastern Fed for trade settlement in Gold bullion. Better to call it the BRICS Development Fund, since a major Trojan Horse for excreting USTBonds through its rectum, the London Boyz busily catching it.



The Gold core will facilitate the purchase of Gold Trade Notes much like the common letters of credit used widely in commerce nowadays. Like the Eurasian Russian-Chinese energy foundation, the development fund will be built on the back of USTBonds in toxic discharge. In the process, expect extreme hardball, shoving the toxic USTBonds back into US and British banks, as collateral for huge loans, as funds for repayment of huge loans, as funds to purchase Gold. In the process, the COMEX with LBMA appendage will be drained of its Gold, a future default assured. The Western gold marts will be unmasked as corrupt dens of empty inventory shelves. What comes is a BRICS Development Fund which will serve as a quasi global gold central bank for the expressed purpose of facilitating trade settlement in Gold. This is hardly just a fund to finance African rail projects.



THE CHECKMATE

A checkmate is in progress. It has four important elements.

1) The established Eurasian Trade Zone joins the massive Asian continent with a significant portion of the European continent, where three quarters of the world population resides. The trade zone has no visible presence or participation by either the United States or United Kingdom.

2) The BRICS Development Fund will control a giant sum of $100 billion. It will eclipse the role of the Intl Monetary Fund. The fund will facilitate numerous infrastructure projects. However, its other feature will be the shocker, as its core is transformed into Gold bullion. The conversion of USTBonds to Gold will nail the coffin in the isolated USDollar, a topic of Jackass scribbles for the last full year.

3) The flow of USTBonds will be from China to London, for financing the foundation of the Eurasian Trade Zone on its energy backbone with brisk energy flow. The collateral for large loans is to be USTBonds, as is repayment for loans to be USTBonds.

4) The transition from Yuan-based trade settlement via the numerous Swap Facilities in barter trade with key nations, toward Gold trade settlement via the BRICS fund that will feature a gold core, will launch the new Gold Trade Standard. It will not be a banker dominated currency type of Gold Standard. It will instead be a trade settlement Gold Standard that bypasses the hegemony of the Anglo-American banking system, the SWIFT rules, the FOREX gaming, and the IMF/World Bank harlots that harbor insects.



ZINGERS AS COFFIN NAILS

Many are the big signals and signposts with deep meaning. They line the path to the Third World. They are many, diverse, and unmistakable in importance. The gradual discard of the USDollar as global reserve currency, the gradual discard of the USTreasury Bond as primary banking system reserve asset, these events are in progress with a speed not seen in past months or past years, not since 2008. The level of intrigue matches the level of deception. Cyprus is not a one-off event, an isolated insignificant beer fart. It is a flash point event. The tipping point events could be bank runs across Southern Europe extending to Britain and the United States, including Canada. Numerous potential tipping point events can be identified, each powerful and ominous for the US Fascists in power. The USDollar is coming home to be buried and devalued. The USTBond is coming home to be buried and downgraded. The ring fence has been clearly laid out. The checkmate with the Eurasian Trade Zone and BRICS Fund is evident for the trained analyst eye. The devaluation will cause severe price inflation and supply shortages for the USEconomy. The end game has never been more clear. Follow the numerous highly important factors at work, each of which could produce a tipping point event. The dominos are aligned and ready. Inside the US Dome of Perception, they are less visible, yet still at work for extreme consequences. Some severe disorder comes this way. Expect some quantum leaps upward in the Gold price and Silver price, each controlled by unprecedented criminal activity in the financial markets.



* The BRICS Development Fund is the main event, to build a railway to a dark place for the United States, ring fenced for its toxic USDollar. Gone will be the corrupted motivated tools like the IMF and World Bank, with even Western central banks of lesser importance. The BRICS Fund could be the Trojan Horse (much like ObamaCare) that permits a vast conduit to be built, a seemingly innocuous let permitted entrance through the door, which permits USTBonds to be dumped like the trash.

* The upcoming Gold purchases by the BRICS Fund might be coordinated with the Shanghai Metals Exchange, to exploit the artificial low London Gold price. A COMEX bust can be foreseen.

* The BRICS should be careful about the new undersea global communication cable system. In 2007, foul play resulted in the Iranian cable being cut, the result of cooperative action by the USGovt and the little ally on the Southern Med that looks northwest to Italy.

* The tipping nation is Germany, which has had its fill supporting the slower wasteful debt-ridden Southern European nations. After cutting the cord, they will embrace the Eurasian Trade Zone. Evidence is the numerous heavy rail facilities that begin in Russia and end in Germany for commodity supply. There are two Germanys, one with old corrupt ties to the West, another with traditional reliable ties to the East. The Western camp is given light by the press, while the Eastern camp works behind closed doors shaping the next chapter.

* The Eastern Alliance (often discussed in past Hat Trick Letters) is slowly coming into view. The Russian and Chinese corridor will serve as the commercial foundation. The BRICS Development Fund will serve as the backbone. When Germany joins in more overt manner, the Alliance will be clear on the geopolitical stage. Then comes the Saudis to join, complete with protectorate role already offered by the Eastern Duo giants, who together will announce the end to the Petro-Dollar defacto standard.

* The political rebellion movement inside Germany is slowly coming into view. They wish to return to the D-Mark currency and to discard the Euro, an experiment in disaster, waste, fraud, and ruin. The movement is gaining traction. Discussion of the Nordic Euro (aka Teutonic Euro) has been heard on an increasing basis among its tribal cousins. Germany will side with Russia & China, and join the next chapter, after shedding its PIIGS pen trash.

* Both Russia and China purchase all their domestic gold mining output. If truth be told, their gold reserves are multiples higher than the official data indicates. Neither nation has any desire to cooperate with such critical disclosure, much like national trade secrets. Both nations are ready for the next chapter, with a few years of preparation in new modern systems, platforms, wiring, and gold held in reserve as core wealth.

* The ABN Amro news of halted gold delivery speaks volumes to the absent inventory linked to the corrupted London gold market. They have no Gold in inventory. They control the Gold price with paper leverage and suppressive techniques. This news halt out of the Netherlands should be viewed in context of the Germans, Dutch, and Austrians demanding their gold in repatriation. London has none. What gold bullion they do obtain comes from urgent shipments from the Roman Catacombs and the Basel hills of Switzerland.

* The nations across the entire West have citizens deeply worried about their savings wealth stored in the banks. They are beginning to realize their accounts are legally considered as bank liabilities subject to heavy loss upon bank failures. They will begin to remove the money from bank accounts in droves, but with capital controls imposed.

* The Cyprus bank account tax is the latest ignored shock wave warning to the West. It is described as a small tax to assure bank solvency, but it is a vicious transfer from sovereign source to depositor private source in funded bailouts. It is confiscation. The 2005 Bankruptcy Law in the US gave away the plan, with savings deposits subordinated under derivatives. The MF-Global episode has not resulted in much learned. It was the first test ride of the subordination rules in the new law. The Jackass warned in early 2012 of an MF-Global event for bank accounts and stock accounts. The event is coming very soon, but the public is very sleepy distracted and dulled.



THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.
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fight_or_flight
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States3988 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-01 09:49:44
April 01 2013 09:18 GMT
#840
edit:see above
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