EPTNow Russia keeping the Casualties low for the info they are giving Russians is important to justify this war that is costing so much. If Ukraine could get a Russian source that Russians trusted to inflate the numbers that would work. But Zeo you show that outside Russia numbers have no affect on the people for who it would matter too.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 925
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Billyboy
2613 Posts
Now Russia keeping the Casualties low for the info they are giving Russians is important to justify this war that is costing so much. If Ukraine could get a Russian source that Russians trusted to inflate the numbers that would work. But Zeo you show that outside Russia numbers have no affect on the people for who it would matter too. | ||
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ZeroByte13
799 Posts
Ukraine probably won't get the amount of help it needs until 2028 - that is, if US actually gets a different government in 2028 - and Russia doesn't seem to have new any tools left to use either. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17863 Posts
On April 12 2026 20:57 ZeroByte13 wrote: 4+ years later it feels like the most probable long-term scenario realistically is a (comparatively) low-casualties semi-frozen conflict where Russia doesn't agree to leave the territories it currently occupies, and Ukraine of course wants them back - but no one can move borders in a noticeable way and both parties just got tired trying. Ukraine probably won't get the amount of help it needs until 2028 - that is, if US actually gets a different government in 2028 - and Russia doesn't seem to have new any tools left to use either. In the end it'll boil down to socioeconomic situation in both countries. Ukraine can be propped up by the EU for quite a while and for them it is an existential threat so willingness to endure is high. Russia on the other hand is now in their fifth year of "special 3 day military operation", economy set to full scale war and with every month that passes it makes it worse for their future. I think it'll all come down to EU countries' willingness to provide support for Ukraine. Poland, Baltics and Scandinavians are pretty on board with this however long it might last since they know first hand what Russia does to you as your neighbor. Countries further west might not be as inclined though and they have the most to say in the EU. Only time will tell. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5891 Posts
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Billyboy
2613 Posts
I think it is stuck in this stage for a while. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18478 Posts
On April 13 2026 00:20 Manit0u wrote: In the end it'll boil down to socioeconomic situation in both countries. Ukraine can be propped up by the EU for quite a while and for them it is an existential threat so willingness to endure is high. Russia on the other hand is now in their fifth year of "special 3 day military operation", economy set to full scale war and with every month that passes it makes it worse for their future. I think it'll all come down to EU countries' willingness to provide support for Ukraine. Poland, Baltics and Scandinavians are pretty on board with this however long it might last since they know first hand what Russia does to you as your neighbor. Countries further west might not be as inclined though and they have the most to say in the EU. Only time will tell. Elections are important too. French elections are coming up and | ||
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ZeroByte13
799 Posts
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Yurie
12176 Posts
On April 13 2026 01:52 ZeroByte13 wrote: It's probably easier to sell "who cares, we have other issues" position nowadays given how there haven't been any big news from the frontlines in a long time. The biggest threat to Ukraine winning the war overall is that the citizens in the EU are experiencing a decreasing standard of living in multiple countries. The US war has a higher impact on day to day for people in EU than the Russian war at this point. The Russian impact is done, the US one is likely to increase unless the strait keeps open. So political parties campaigning on short term thinking on the Russian issue are probably going to be popular since that is sold as another 50€ per month in people's pockets. | ||
KwarK
United States44398 Posts
On April 13 2026 02:18 Yurie wrote: The biggest threat to Ukraine winning the war overall is that the citizens in the EU are experiencing a decreasing standard of living in multiple countries. The US war has a higher impact on day to day for people in EU than the Russian war at this point. The Russian impact is done, the US one is likely to increase unless the strait keeps open. So political parties campaigning on short term thinking on the Russian issue are probably going to be popular since that is sold as another 50€ per month in people's pockets. Fortunately aid to Ukraine counts as NATO spending under the new requirements so it’s actually budget neutral. If the government has committed to spend X anyway then it can slip it into that budgetary bucket. | ||
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KwarK
United States44398 Posts
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Jankisa
Croatia1846 Posts
Even if he goes away, recently the Czech elections gave us "the Czech Trump" who is, surprise, surprise adversarial to Ukraine and a big fan of the US and Trump. Hopefully, in the best case scenario these 2 chucklefucks see where the wind is blowing and decide to tell Putin to pound sand, but I doubt that will happen, as much as I hope it does. | ||
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pmp10
3401 Posts
On April 13 2026 01:10 Billyboy wrote: I don't see an off ramp for Putin. How do they deal with all the soldiers coming back? Wounded and not? How do they raise the money for all the repairs that are needed? And I'm not just talking the Parts of Ukraine they took that they totally destroyed. But Ukraine has been hitting Russia with long distance drones for a while and doing big damage. Also, how does he sell this as a victory? I think it is stuck in this stage for a while. The natural off-ramp for Putin is when Donbass falls, which admittedly is a prospect for somewhere 2027-2028. That said, he might refuse to take it for political reasons. Korean war continues until Stalin croaked after all. | ||
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Billyboy
2613 Posts
On April 14 2026 01:02 pmp10 wrote: The natural off-ramp for Putin is when Donbass falls, which admittedly is a prospect for somewhere 2027-2028. That said, he might refuse to take it for political reasons. Korean war continues until Stalin croaked after all. Given the slow down and how much fortification is there, I bet longer. But regardless I think death of Putin is really the only off ramp for Russia. Anyone know what the realistic timelines are for the aid package to Ukraine to go through now that Orban lost? How about the sanctions he blocked? How often are the meetings and can they just do another vote or does it have to go through the whole process again? | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17863 Posts
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Velr
Switzerland10978 Posts
I mean, let's help Ukraine as long as Ukraine want's to fight but turning this into an (even more) forever war can't be the solution? | ||
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ZeroByte13
799 Posts
Intense combat phase cannot be sustainable forever - even if it still can be done for a couple more years. But if it becomes a semi-frozen conflict without official peace and with periodical drone / missile attacks - who knows for how long this can potentially last. Of course in this case Russia will probably try to use this semi-peace state to rearm and attack again later... | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17863 Posts
On April 15 2026 00:27 ZeroByte13 wrote: I guess it depends on the type of the "forever war". Intense combat phase cannot be sustainable forever - even if it still can be done for a couple more years. But if it becomes a semi-frozen conflict without official peace and with periodical drone / missile attacks - who knows for how long this can potentially last. Of course in this case Russia will probably try to use this semi-peace state to rearm and attack again later... Isn't this exactly what happened after 2014? Peace on paper with some sporadic fighting near one part of frontline. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany7435 Posts
On April 15 2026 00:27 ZeroByte13 wrote: I guess it depends on the type of the "forever war". Intense combat phase cannot be sustainable forever - even if it still can be done for a couple more years. But if it becomes a semi-frozen conflict without official peace and with periodical drone / missile attacks - who knows for how long this can potentially last. Of course in this case Russia will probably try to use this semi-peace state to rearm and attack again later... I don't think frozen or semi-frozen war is an option. As soon as there is "peace" EU money would decrease significantly and there would only be rebuild "loans" which Ukraine can't take since the conflict can turn hot any moment again. And the population is not gonna want to repopulate most areas near Russia. And will the refugees come back in a semi stable and destroyed country? I doubt it | ||
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ZeroByte13
799 Posts
Both Ukraine and Russia would obviously prefer a favorable peace agreement with most of their goals achieved. But if neither side can make any significant progress - which is more or less what we have now, or at least so it seems to me - a semi-frozen war might be the only available option. No one likes the current situation so making proper peace is not an option - it would be seen as a semi-defeat. But if no one can change it because there's not enough resources for intense actions required to change the situation, and no new military tech developed that changes everything - what are they going to do? I'm not saying this is what will happen, only that I can see it happening as both sides get more and more exhausted. I would think semi-frozen conflicts are rarely something that both or even either of combatants want - it just happens out of lack of means to end the war properly. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17863 Posts
On April 16 2026 01:57 ZeroByte13 wrote: It's not the option both or even either side would prefer, of course. Both Ukraine and Russia would obviously prefer a favorable peace agreement with most of their goals achieved. You are aware of course that such an agreement is impossible to even draft? Russia's and Ukraine's goals for this war run in total opposition to each other so it's not feasible to make an agreement where both sides get to have most of their goals fulfilled. | ||
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