EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 8
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KobraKay
Portugal4231 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On March 01 2022 05:50 deacon.frost wrote: Nope, nothing like that. EU is an economical union on a route to federation(this is like a very long term goal and I personally think it won't happen for the next 50 years). We have NATO for the defense. Yes and No. The EU is an economical union. And candidate status doesn't give anything anyway. But for full members the EU has a mutual defense clause. (Lissabon treaty, 2009, §42.7) That has also been pointed out again and again for countries like Finland, so they are technically under the French umbrella. It is just that there are no agreements in place with regards to an preemptive defense like in NATO, where intentionally the borders are stacked with troops from all countries to really suck everyone in. So you won't see central European troops in Finland just for this, which means Finland would rely on the rest of the nations actually honoring the Lissabon treaty. And with regards to Ukraine I actually believe that EU membership might be a way to install security guarantees without NATO membership (where you basically have to march to Moscow to have this be on the table at any negotiations) | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
ISTANBUL. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Turkey has warned other countries that Black Sea straits will be closed for warships for the time being, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said. "We warned all riparian and non-riparian countries not to let warships go through the straits," the Anadolu Agency quoted Cavusoglu as saying. The minister added that Turkey continued to implement the Montreux Convention. I actually think this is a good idea. The most dangerous thing I can imagine right now is someone thinking "maybe we should put some nuclear submarines near the conflict zone just in case." | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On March 01 2022 06:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Would love to know what the definition of "undiplomatic activities" means. https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1498402637196271616 espionage | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
"Diplomats are spies" is the generic excuse for expelling diplomats in the same way that "spending time with my family" is a reason given for resignation when forced to resign. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15725 Posts
On March 01 2022 05:50 deacon.frost wrote: Nope, nothing like that. EU is an economical union on a route to federation(this is like a very long term goal and I personally think it won't happen for the next 50 years). We have NATO for the defense. Edit> in Civilization terms, EU are the economic allies while NATO are the defensive allies  Interesting. So then can someone explain to me the benefit of Ukraine trying to join EU while they are being invaded? I imagine they would be pursuing military stuff rather than economic stuff if Putin is trying to take Kyiv. But then again, maybe they have bandwidth to try both. No harm at the very least. And maybe being in the EU makes more countries willing to help militarily despite not being in NATO? | ||
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KobraKay
Portugal4231 Posts
On March 01 2022 06:35 Mohdoo wrote: Interesting. So then can someone explain to me the benefit of Ukraine trying to join EU while they are being invaded? I imagine they would be pursuing military stuff rather than economic stuff if Putin is trying to take Kyiv. But then again, maybe they have bandwidth to try both. No harm at the very least. And maybe being in the EU makes more countries willing to help militarily despite not being in NATO? if they became a member of the EU (which takes at least 2 years to run the proccess and no exceptions will be made) then the Lisbon agreement could be used to justify having military defend Ukraine (the agreement has a sort of mutual defense clause but im not sure of its enforceability). their application just signals their intent and what they see as their way for the future, but everyone knows that the scenario their are in wont get them fast tracked into an EU Member State status. If there were any doubts, people would just have to listen to Josep Borrel's comments on the matter. | ||
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ZerOCoolSC2
9010 Posts
On March 01 2022 06:35 Mohdoo wrote: Interesting. So then can someone explain to me the benefit of Ukraine trying to join EU while they are being invaded? I imagine they would be pursuing military stuff rather than economic stuff if Putin is trying to take Kyiv. But then again, maybe they have bandwidth to try both. No harm at the very least. And maybe being in the EU makes more countries willing to help militarily despite not being in NATO? My guess, and it isn't educated by any means, is that after this is all over, they're going to need help rebuilding. Being part of the EU may have some benefits in that regard at the very least. Also, if they have the natural gas that can help replace the Russian pipeline, then it benefits a lot of countries that way as well. | ||
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 01 2022 06:35 Mohdoo wrote: Interesting. So then can someone explain to me the benefit of Ukraine trying to join EU while they are being invaded? I imagine they would be pursuing military stuff rather than economic stuff if Putin is trying to take Kyiv. But then again, maybe they have bandwidth to try both. No harm at the very least. And maybe being in the EU makes more countries willing to help militarily despite not being in NATO? I don't get this either. They won't get into the EU as there's a process for getting in and they can't skip it. Maybe as a bargaining chip? So they can say they will remove the application if Russia does something nice as well? And honestly, we are supporting Ukraine on a very huge scale already. (I don't want to go into this rabbit hole) | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On March 01 2022 06:35 Mohdoo wrote: Interesting. So then can someone explain to me the benefit of Ukraine trying to join EU while they are being invaded? I imagine they would be pursuing military stuff rather than economic stuff if Putin is trying to take Kyiv. But then again, maybe they have bandwidth to try both. No harm at the very least. And maybe being in the EU makes more countries willing to help militarily despite not being in NATO? Even with and accelerated process, I don't see Ukraine properly joining the EU anywhere fast enough to be relevant in terms of the current war. I see accepting Ukraine as an "EU cadidate" as a sign of solidarity, and a message to its people that Europe will take them in ... if they survive. It's also extremely unlikely the Ukraine will get anyone, NATO, EU or otherwise, to "pile in" the war due to some treaty being signed (if that's what you mean by pursuing military stuff). | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4736 Posts
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Dan HH
Romania9144 Posts
On March 01 2022 06:35 Mohdoo wrote: Interesting. So then can someone explain to me the benefit of Ukraine trying to join EU while they are being invaded? I imagine they would be pursuing military stuff rather than economic stuff if Putin is trying to take Kyiv. But then again, maybe they have bandwidth to try both. No harm at the very least. And maybe being in the EU makes more countries willing to help militarily despite not being in NATO? The people of Ukraine want prosperity and less corruption rather than whatever the fuck Kremlin-backed governments offer, that's what 2014 was about. They're saying that by dying for European ideals they've earned some leeway/help towards accession and they're right. So yes, they're using "the platform" they've been given by current situation to pursue a mostly economic goal, which is perfectly fine. | ||
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12129 Posts
On March 01 2022 06:56 Dan HH wrote: The people of Ukraine want prosperity and less corruption rather than whatever the fuck Kremlin-backed governments offer, that's what 2014 was about. They're saying that by dying for European ideals they've earned some leeway/help towards accession and they're right. So yes, they're using "the platform" they've been given by current situation to pursue a mostly economic goal, which is perfectly fine. The eastern part doesn't want that (and they didn't want to be under the Russian gvt. either, at least back then), that's what lead to the civil war and escalation back then. Edit> It's mentioned in the Youtube video where it's cited on the previous page. Finding something nowadays about Ukraine, NATO and Russia is really way above my Google Fu | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17557 Posts
On March 01 2022 06:00 mahrgell wrote: And with regards to Ukraine I actually believe that EU membership might be a way to install security guarantees without NATO membership (where you basically have to march to Moscow to have this be on the table at any negotiations) Unfortunately I don't think Ukraine will get EU membership anytime soon. The joining process is rather lengthy and you have to meet a lot of criteria that Ukraine does not (to prevent new members destabilizing the union). | ||
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
Also the closer they get to EU the harder it is to have the conflict of 2014 onwards repeated. Some kind of ceasefire gets signed and EU moves out of the sanctions and stops supplying Ukraine. In a short while the russian backed separatist regions start to cause trouble again, but just not quite enough for a repeat of the current level of support. The world kinda closed it's eyes, but from 2014 to last week Ukrainian soldiers were getting killed at least weekly by Putin's little green men & co. I don't think that would go quite as unnoticed if Ukraine was in actual accession to a full EU membership. Edit: some terrible sentences are slightly less terrible now. | ||
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deacon.frost
Czech Republic12129 Posts
But I believe so, yes. Didn't read it properly, check this video at 7:40, there's the graph section starting edit2> Ukraine in many ways remind me the Czech Republic, we have split internal disputes between Bohemia and Moravia(and Silesia :D ) too while Moravia is a smaller part of the republic on the eastern part and have in many ways different views. It's just not as escalated as there. (generally speaking we're not big nationalist in this way as we don't care, it's like comparing a nuclear weapon to a blank grenade) | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On March 01 2022 07:14 Manit0u wrote: Unfortunately I don't think Ukraine will get EU membership anytime soon. The joining process is rather lengthy and you have to meet a lot of criteria that Ukraine does not (to prevent new members destabilizing the union). I'm talking in a hypothetical peace. The EU might guarantee the security for the candidate phase, until they are officially covered by the Lisbon treaty. Also the EU can create new rules for joining as they wish  But do I believe, in this hypothetical peace case, that Ukraine would be part of the EU in this year or the next one? Certainly not. Do I believe that they would have to use exactly the same path as everyone else? No, that won't be the case either. Though, the biggest problem is that this is a purely hypothetical case. And right now, I have troubles seeing peace and I have troubles seeing way out of this mess in general. This last week has changed basically everything in the Europe and it will take time and a lot of imagination to figure out what new equilibrium can be found. | ||
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Amanebak
Czech Republic528 Posts
On March 01 2022 07:26 deacon.frost wrote: But I believe so, yes. Didn't read it properly, check this video at 7:40, there's the graph section starting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 edit2> Ukraine in many ways remind me the Czech Republic, we have split internal disputes between Bohemia and Moravia(and Silesia :D ) too while Moravia is a smaller part of the republic on the eastern part and have in many ways different views. It's just not as escalated as there. (generally speaking we're not big nationalist in this way as we don't care, it's like comparing a nuclear weapon to a blank grenade) The part about the internal disputes inside the Czech Republic is a nonsense. And where did you get that 60% of Czechs want out of the EU? Feel free to send me a message as I don't want to derail the thread. | ||
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