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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On March 01 2022 07:26 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2022 07:14 Manit0u wrote:
And with regards to Ukraine I actually believe that EU membership might be a way to install security guarantees without NATO membership (where you basically have to march to Moscow to have this be on the table at any negotiations)
But do I believe, in this hypothetical peace case, that Ukraine would be part of the EU in this year or the next one? Certainly not. Do I believe that they would have to use exactly the same path as everyone else? No, that won't be the case either.
Well, scratch that. It seems that Ukraine has been unofficially invited to the EU and Zelensky signed it so if EU leadership agrees Ukraine might join EU even this week.
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On March 01 2022 07:45 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2022 07:26 mahrgell wrote:On March 01 2022 07:14 Manit0u wrote:
And with regards to Ukraine I actually believe that EU membership might be a way to install security guarantees without NATO membership (where you basically have to march to Moscow to have this be on the table at any negotiations)
But do I believe, in this hypothetical peace case, that Ukraine would be part of the EU in this year or the next one? Certainly not. Do I believe that they would have to use exactly the same path as everyone else? No, that won't be the case either. Well, scratch that. It seems that Ukraine has been unofficially invited to the EU and Zelensky signed it so if EU leadership agrees Ukraine might join EU even this week.
Invited by whom? There isn't a single person that can do that, and the proper meetings on the matter have not been held so how has that invitation came to light?
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I would view the Ukraine EU ascension stuff entirely as PR and 'moral' support and maybe help with rebuilding if Ukraine comes out of this as a free nation but it will have 0 impact on the war itself.
And we shouldn't want it to have an effect on the war because if the EU gets directly involved were 1 step away from NATO and WW3.
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Analysis twitter thread some of you might find interesting:
Guy is a US based Russian military analyst. Provides a decent overview of Russian problems so far and where they might be headed.
If I look at the info available from U.S. intelligence agencies I would personally add some caveats with regards to the parts on logistics and the way the BTGs operate.
Logistics does appear to be a serious issue to the point where it can't be fixed with a day or two of less intense action.
A bunch of the BTGs are undermanned to the point where the splitting up in different small detachments isn't really a choice, it's the only option.
Also, something which I have not seen mentioned in any major news outlet yet, Russian forces seem to also have more communication issues than would be expected in an operation of this scale.
Also @Kwark/others discussing this:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-isolation-deepens-ukraine-resists-invasion-2022-02-28/
Zelensky has called for a no-fly zone, let's see how that turns out.
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Don't know which came first, but you have your answer:
White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday ruled out the idea of using US troops to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine amid the Russian invasion of the eastern European country, saying it could lead to a war between the US and Russia.
Psaki said during an interview with MSNBC that a no-fly zone would require "implementation by the US military — it would essentially mean the US military would be shooting down planes, Russian planes."
"That is definitely escalatory, that would potentially put us in a place where we are in a military conflict with Russia. That is not something [President Joe Biden] wants to do," Psaki said. "Those are all the reasons why that's not a good idea."
Psaki added, "We are not going to have a military war with Russia with US troops."
I get the impression that Ukraine's government is asking for anything and everything to see how far they can get, but the things that they absolutely will never get is direct military support (that could cause nuclear escalation) or willingness to accept the collapse of the entire European economy. They seem to be getting everything short of those things though.
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"We are not going to have a war with Russia. Instead, we will watch them claim land indefinitely"
Here's to hoping Europe feels more incentive and takes matters into their own hands. Russia needs to be critically crippled after this. This needs to be the end of Russias as a major power.
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Canada11607 Posts
On March 01 2022 03:54 emperorchampion wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2022 03:41 LegalLord wrote:On March 01 2022 03:32 Dan HH wrote:Looks like Russia wasn't expecting Germany's recent actions, their ministry of foreign affairs basically just called them nazis. Can't find an English source yet. + Show Spoiler + Eh, statement is a little more pointed than that. It complains specifically about them being delivered to "Banderite groups" i.e. the paramilitary groups that praise Stepan Bandera. Then a jab at Germany for saying "if that's who you deliver weapons to, did Germany ever really denazify itself?" A little bit underhanded but it's not trying to say "you're Nazis for sending weapons to Ukraine." Based on google translate + Show Spoiler +The supply of German weapons to the ideological heirs of the Nazi accomplice S. Bandera makes one wonder - how comprehensive and complete was the process of denazification in Germany itself after the defeat in World War II? . Imo it reads a lot like the tweet is implying that the German government are Nazis. The loaded question of "how comprehensive and complete was the process of denazification in Germany itself after the defeat in World War II?" is implying that there are Nazis in Germany, and moreover, implies that the German government are Nazis because they made the decision. Related, has Russia stated specific goals with respect to "denazification" in Ukraine?
Well, isn't that really just old-school Soviet propaganda? "There are no Nazis in East Germany." (According to the USSR, somehow all the Nazis ended up in West Germany and none in the East- or else the Soviets shot them all.) Wasn't that the ongoing Soviet party line- the West was soft on the Nazis; therefore West Germany is still a Nazi state propped up by the capitalists?
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On March 01 2022 08:31 LegalLord wrote:Don't know which came first, but you have your answer: Show nested quote +White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday ruled out the idea of using US troops to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine amid the Russian invasion of the eastern European country, saying it could lead to a war between the US and Russia.
Psaki said during an interview with MSNBC that a no-fly zone would require "implementation by the US military — it would essentially mean the US military would be shooting down planes, Russian planes."
"That is definitely escalatory, that would potentially put us in a place where we are in a military conflict with Russia. That is not something [President Joe Biden] wants to do," Psaki said. "Those are all the reasons why that's not a good idea."
Psaki added, "We are not going to have a military war with Russia with US troops." I get the impression that Ukraine's government is asking for anything and everything to see how far they can get, but the things that they absolutely will never get is direct military support (that could cause nuclear escalation) or willingness to accept the collapse of the entire European economy. They seem to be getting everything short of those things though.
Yeah White House denied it instantly as expected, but still thought it would be interesting given the earlier discussions here.
Ukraine has clearly won the (online) propaganda war so far and is now reaping the benefits of that. The Russian strategy of only producing content for inland consumption seems to have backfired, perhaps they expected less unity and/or more influence of Russian voices in the West?
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Is there a list of organizations that are supporting Ukraine that one can donate to, or a list of organizations that are pro-Putin that one can boycott? Because hey, I added a Facebook profile picture border in solidarity, but that's like the tiniest step above the completely useless "sending thoughts and prayers and good vibes to victims", and I'd like to do something a little more meaningful. Virtue signaling isn't nearly as useful as taking action, and getting other people to take action.
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Our defense minister was and is still reluctant to call invasion what it is, a war. Instead, he preferred to call it "confrontation" and "conflict". The exact same thing Kremlin media is told to use as keywords. No more, he is now sacked, which is wonderful news.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bulgarian-defence-minister-be-sacked-over-ukraine-rhetoric-2022-02-28/
Also, Kremlin inspired disinformation is a really big problem in Eastern Europe. Hopefully politicians pay attention to that. Not just state-backed media channels like RT but trolls in Facebook.
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United States44398 Posts
On March 01 2022 08:55 Mohdoo wrote:
"We are not going to have a war with Russia. Instead, we will watch them claim land indefinitely"
Here's to hoping Europe feels more incentive and takes matters into their own hands. Russia needs to be critically crippled after this. This needs to be the end of Russias as a major power.
They’re still doing plenty of escalatory things. They’re fine with loading and pointing the gun, they just think pulling the trigger is too escalatory. The US isn’t doing nothing.
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Russian military convoy is reported to be 64 km. So I guess we can expect much bloodier fight soon?
WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Satellite images taken on Monday show a Russian military convoy north of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv that stretches for about 40 miles (64 km), substantially longer than the 17 miles (27 km) reported earlier in the day, a U.S. private company said.
Maxar Technologies (MAXR.N) also said additional ground forces deployments and ground attack helicopter units were seen in southern Belarus, less than 20 miles (32 km) north of the Ukraine border.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-military-convoy-north-kyiv-stretches-40-miles-maxar-2022-03-01/
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I'm not sure if anyone was tracking this as closely as I was, but Netflix has refused Russia's orders to carry propaganda channels at (literally, more or less) the 11th hour; I suspect without the ongoing war and significant subscriber pressure it would have gone through. Obviously not too important in the grand scale of things, but you can feel slightly better about giving them your money than you would otherwise.
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On March 01 2022 10:24 SC-Shield wrote:Russian military convoy is reported to be 64 km. So I guess we can expect much bloodier fight soon? Show nested quote +
WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Satellite images taken on Monday show a Russian military convoy north of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv that stretches for about 40 miles (64 km), substantially longer than the 17 miles (27 km) reported earlier in the day, a U.S. private company said.
Maxar Technologies (MAXR.N) also said additional ground forces deployments and ground attack helicopter units were seen in southern Belarus, less than 20 miles (32 km) north of the Ukraine border.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-military-convoy-north-kyiv-stretches-40-miles-maxar-2022-03-01/
What means a much bloodier fight soon ? So far is been a cool fight or what ?
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Chinese people hope to solve the problem through peaceful negotiations
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On March 01 2022 11:22 plasmidghost wrote:
Regarding the 40 mile Russian convoy, would the West provide them with more drones to take it out?
Feels funny cheering for drones, but I really hope these Turkey drones fuck em up.
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If this isn't a good reason to use a military, what is? Is there any situation where the US military should be used? I'm honestly curious what people think. I see a lot of people say the US should do nothing no matter what. What if this happens while we sat on hands sucking our own dicks for being so calm and collected?
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On March 01 2022 12:11 Mohdoo wrote:https://twitter.com/jackturmanIII/status/1498478403250446337If this isn't a good reason to use a military, what is? Is there any situation where the US military should be used? I'm honestly curious what people think. I see a lot of people say the US should do nothing no matter what. What if this happens while we sat on hands sucking our own dicks for being so calm and collected?
You're basically advocating for WW3. There's no way the US gets involved with Putin with his hands on the red button. It just isn't happening so look for another solution where the US isn't involved. The only military going to fight will be Ukraine and other EU nations. The US will not go to war with an unstable Russian regime. Get that out of your head Mohdoo.
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EPT
