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On September 09 2026 18:39 Manit0u wrote:They've contracted 1k patriot missiles, not sending them for the winter.
Can you source that? Everything I’ve read is it’s urgently from their own stocks.
Pistorius said he decided to provide Ukraine with the urgently needed Patriot PAC-2 interceptor missiles from the German military (Bundeswehr) stocks. He urged other contact-group members to check their own inventories and do the same.
“I am aware that it is not easy to strike a balance between one’s own security requirements and urgently needed support to Ukraine, but please, if in doubt, decide in favor for Ukraine,” he said.
While Ukraine is signing contracts with partners for the supply of about 1,000 Patriot missiles for its air defense systems ahead of the winter, Germany announced it would urgently transfer the PAC-2 missiles to Ukraine from its own Bundeswehr stocks.
Speaking ahead of the 36th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format), which took place in the form of a video conference on Tuesday, Sept. 8, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced the decision, specifying that the missiles would come from existing stockpiles rather than future deliveries.
“I ask you to adopt the necessary financial decisions by November, so we can already see results on the battlefield this winter,” Khmara said according to Interfax-Ukraine, adding that “up to 90% of our success on the battlefield depends on drones.”
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On September 09 2026 23:52 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2026 18:39 Manit0u wrote:They've contracted 1k patriot missiles, not sending them for the winter. Can you source that? Everything I’ve read is it’s urgently from their own stocks. Show nested quote + Pistorius said he decided to provide Ukraine with the urgently needed Patriot PAC-2 interceptor missiles from the German military (Bundeswehr) stocks. He urged other contact-group members to check their own inventories and do the same.
“I am aware that it is not easy to strike a balance between one’s own security requirements and urgently needed support to Ukraine, but please, if in doubt, decide in favor for Ukraine,” he said. Show nested quote + While Ukraine is signing contracts with partners for the supply of about 1,000 Patriot missiles for its air defense systems ahead of the winter, Germany announced it would urgently transfer the PAC-2 missiles to Ukraine from its own Bundeswehr stocks. Show nested quote + Speaking ahead of the 36th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format), which took place in the form of a video conference on Tuesday, Sept. 8, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced the decision, specifying that the missiles would come from existing stockpiles rather than future deliveries. Show nested quote + “I ask you to adopt the necessary financial decisions by November, so we can already see results on the battlefield this winter,” Khmara said according to Interfax-Ukraine, adding that “up to 90% of our success on the battlefield depends on drones.”
From the article you linked previously:
Pistorius did not say how many missiles Germany would provide.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara said Kyiv is contracting to buy around 1,000 Patriot missiles but most would only be shipped in the coming years.
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On September 10 2026 02:14 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2026 23:52 Billyboy wrote:On September 09 2026 18:39 Manit0u wrote:They've contracted 1k patriot missiles, not sending them for the winter. Can you source that? Everything I’ve read is it’s urgently from their own stocks. Pistorius said he decided to provide Ukraine with the urgently needed Patriot PAC-2 interceptor missiles from the German military (Bundeswehr) stocks. He urged other contact-group members to check their own inventories and do the same.
“I am aware that it is not easy to strike a balance between one’s own security requirements and urgently needed support to Ukraine, but please, if in doubt, decide in favor for Ukraine,” he said. While Ukraine is signing contracts with partners for the supply of about 1,000 Patriot missiles for its air defense systems ahead of the winter, Germany announced it would urgently transfer the PAC-2 missiles to Ukraine from its own Bundeswehr stocks. Speaking ahead of the 36th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format), which took place in the form of a video conference on Tuesday, Sept. 8, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced the decision, specifying that the missiles would come from existing stockpiles rather than future deliveries. “I ask you to adopt the necessary financial decisions by November, so we can already see results on the battlefield this winter,” Khmara said according to Interfax-Ukraine, adding that “up to 90% of our success on the battlefield depends on drones.” From the article you linked previously: Show nested quote +
Pistorius did not say how many missiles Germany would provide.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara said Kyiv is contracting to buy around 1,000 Patriot missiles but most would only be shipped in the coming years.
I believe that’s on top of the 1000 they are sending from their own stock based on the articles and the analysts talking about it.
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United States44398 Posts
For context, there are about 600 patriot interceptors built every year for the entire US aligned world. 1,000 surplus existing in German hangars would be surprising if true. I guess it’s not strictly impossible but it’d be weird and imply an error.
I googled and found it was a two part announcement.
1. Globally Ukraine has made agreements to source 1,000 from various partners across various dates.
2. Germany (presumably one of the partners) are going to deliver some before winter.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/84059
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That sounds reasonable, I should probably learn to not get too excited until the deliveries actually happen. That being said if they can get the 1000 it might be enough until their own anti ballistic is ready. Each one will save lives, especially given Russias love for attacking residential buildings.
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From what I gathered in the news you are both right:
- Germany is sending stocked PAC-2 to Ukraine
- Germany is starting to produce their own PAC-2 and will be sending them to Ukraine and other NATO countries
- Germany is buying PAC-3 for stock and is hoping to produce PAC-3 in the future
Starting next year the French/ Italian system SAMP/T will also help out in Ukraine.
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Some interesting trend, where Ukraine is now building critical military infrastructure underground, and Russia is building all the way in Serbia and also similarly underground.
I guess Iran etc are just miles ahead of the curve, the underground tunnel infrastructure is where it's at. The new trench warfare.
Very dystopian where things are going.
On another news, Ukraine naval drone shot down a Russian naval drone.
War really advances tech quick
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On September 14 2026 09:56 ETisME wrote:
Some interesting trend, where Ukraine is now building critical military infrastructure underground, and Russia is building all the way in Serbia and also similarly underground.
I guess Iran etc are just miles ahead of the curve, the underground tunnel infrastructure is where it's at. The new trench warfare.
Very dystopian where things are going.
On another news, Ukraine naval drone shot down a Russian naval drone.
War really advances tech quick
Reminds me of the AppleTV show Silo.
Maybe Musks The Boring Company was just ahead of its time.
Let's hope AA systems for missiles and drones will catch up soon.
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On September 14 2026 21:33 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2026 09:56 ETisME wrote:
Some interesting trend, where Ukraine is now building critical military infrastructure underground, and Russia is building all the way in Serbia and also similarly underground.
I guess Iran etc are just miles ahead of the curve, the underground tunnel infrastructure is where it's at. The new trench warfare.
Very dystopian where things are going.
On another news, Ukraine naval drone shot down a Russian naval drone.
War really advances tech quick Reminds me of the AppleTV show Silo. Maybe Musks The Boring Company was just ahead of its time. Let's hope AA systems for missiles and drones will catch up soon.
I think the answer is interception drones. Lots of the current AA systems would work. Just the missiles are so expensive and it’s relatively easy to overwhelm. The other issue is the drones are so mobile and take such un conventional paths static AA can also be avoided. It is still needed for ballistics and you can defend end targets. But when they attack the non traditional spots, they don’t do much.
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On September 14 2026 21:43 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2026 21:33 Harris1st wrote:On September 14 2026 09:56 ETisME wrote:
Some interesting trend, where Ukraine is now building critical military infrastructure underground, and Russia is building all the way in Serbia and also similarly underground.
I guess Iran etc are just miles ahead of the curve, the underground tunnel infrastructure is where it's at. The new trench warfare.
Very dystopian where things are going.
On another news, Ukraine naval drone shot down a Russian naval drone.
War really advances tech quick Reminds me of the AppleTV show Silo. Maybe Musks The Boring Company was just ahead of its time. Let's hope AA systems for missiles and drones will catch up soon. I think the answer is interception drones. Lots of the current AA systems would work. Just the missiles are so expensive and it’s relatively easy to overwhelm. The other issue is the drones are so mobile and take such un conventional paths static AA can also be avoided. It is still needed for ballistics and you can defend end targets. But when they attack the non traditional spots, they don’t do much.
Yeah, it's interesting to see how AA is slowly becoming more and more "low-tech", with drones, old propeller airplanes, and even literal ww2 flak cannons are making a return. When the ammunition becomes cheap, the counters needs to be equally cheap
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On September 14 2026 22:00 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2026 21:43 Billyboy wrote:On September 14 2026 21:33 Harris1st wrote:On September 14 2026 09:56 ETisME wrote:
Some interesting trend, where Ukraine is now building critical military infrastructure underground, and Russia is building all the way in Serbia and also similarly underground.
I guess Iran etc are just miles ahead of the curve, the underground tunnel infrastructure is where it's at. The new trench warfare.
Very dystopian where things are going.
On another news, Ukraine naval drone shot down a Russian naval drone.
War really advances tech quick Reminds me of the AppleTV show Silo. Maybe Musks The Boring Company was just ahead of its time. Let's hope AA systems for missiles and drones will catch up soon. I think the answer is interception drones. Lots of the current AA systems would work. Just the missiles are so expensive and it’s relatively easy to overwhelm. The other issue is the drones are so mobile and take such un conventional paths static AA can also be avoided. It is still needed for ballistics and you can defend end targets. But when they attack the non traditional spots, they don’t do much. Yeah, it's interesting to see how AA is slowly becoming more and more "low-tech", with drones, old propeller airplanes, and even literal ww2 flak cannons are making a return. When the ammunition becomes cheap, the counters needs to be equally cheap
Well, Flak sound like an incredible counter to drones so why not.
I'm also thinking of EMP drones and helicopters with lasers but these are quite some ways out I guess.
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On September 14 2026 22:25 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2026 22:00 Excludos wrote:On September 14 2026 21:43 Billyboy wrote:On September 14 2026 21:33 Harris1st wrote:On September 14 2026 09:56 ETisME wrote:
Some interesting trend, where Ukraine is now building critical military infrastructure underground, and Russia is building all the way in Serbia and also similarly underground.
I guess Iran etc are just miles ahead of the curve, the underground tunnel infrastructure is where it's at. The new trench warfare.
Very dystopian where things are going.
On another news, Ukraine naval drone shot down a Russian naval drone.
War really advances tech quick Reminds me of the AppleTV show Silo. Maybe Musks The Boring Company was just ahead of its time. Let's hope AA systems for missiles and drones will catch up soon. I think the answer is interception drones. Lots of the current AA systems would work. Just the missiles are so expensive and it’s relatively easy to overwhelm. The other issue is the drones are so mobile and take such un conventional paths static AA can also be avoided. It is still needed for ballistics and you can defend end targets. But when they attack the non traditional spots, they don’t do much. Yeah, it's interesting to see how AA is slowly becoming more and more "low-tech", with drones, old propeller airplanes, and even literal ww2 flak cannons are making a return. When the ammunition becomes cheap, the counters needs to be equally cheap Well, Flak sound like an incredible counter to drones so why not. I'm also thinking of EMP drones and helicopters with lasers but these are quite some ways out I guess.
Sadly Russia has been upgrading their long range drones to make interception harder. That increases cost but not so much that AA missiles are worth it (considering production constraints) while dodging most of the low tech options. It is always a give and take, you can make something good that bypasses defenses but is "expensive" or have a large mass of cheap things that goes through any defense you can place at the right spot.
Lasers does seem to be a future tech since cheap drones are small things that would gain heat rapidly until they break. If anybody could actually make the lasers work reliably. Any laser based defense now would just get a ballistic missile killing it and drones continuing afterwards. Needs to be cheap or mobile enough to be more than another super weapon with no quantity and no impact.
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How Russia’s new drones are changing the air war - https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/d6663804-aeb2-4467-bfbd-02eb8b74da0b via @FT
Geran 4 and 5 are wrecking havoc, and Russia has now halted geran 3 to focus specifically on these two new models.
There are more and more military bloggers saying it seems the missile defense will never be able to catch up to drone development and production.
It is far easier and quicker for drones to adapt, and parts are much easier to procure.
Definitely scary thought, when so much of our world stability are dependent on detecting and defending a devastating first strike advantage.
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On September 15 2026 15:50 ETisME wrote:How Russia’s new drones are changing the air war - https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/d6663804-aeb2-4467-bfbd-02eb8b74da0b via @FT Geran 4 and 5 are wrecking havoc, and Russia has now halted geran 3 to focus specifically on these two new models. There are more and more military bloggers saying it seems the missile defense will never be able to catch up to drone development and production. It is far easier and quicker for drones to adapt, and parts are much easier to procure. Definitely scary thought, when so much of our world stability are dependent on detecting and defending a devastating first strike advantage.
IDK.
A WWII 88 gun can reach their max cruise height with their flak rounds. That's a very simple design.
The drone also has to come down to strike the target with limited evasive manouvers.
There is a lot of room for improvement for an 88 type flak gun.
Proximity fuses of course. Better radar (you don't need a super fancy battery radar for drones), especially if networked.
Automated fire controll.
I can see a mass produced towed semi-semi automated (it shoots on it's own but has crew for reloading and everything else) flak system being a highly effective and economic counter to both long and midrange drones.
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On September 15 2026 18:33 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2026 15:50 ETisME wrote:How Russia’s new drones are changing the air war - https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/d6663804-aeb2-4467-bfbd-02eb8b74da0b via @FT Geran 4 and 5 are wrecking havoc, and Russia has now halted geran 3 to focus specifically on these two new models. There are more and more military bloggers saying it seems the missile defense will never be able to catch up to drone development and production. It is far easier and quicker for drones to adapt, and parts are much easier to procure. Definitely scary thought, when so much of our world stability are dependent on detecting and defending a devastating first strike advantage. IDK. A WWII 88 gun can reach their max cruise height with their flak rounds. That's a very simple design. The drone also has to come down to strike the target with limited evasive manouvers. There is a lot of room for improvement for an 88 type flak gun. Proximity fuses of course. Better radar (you don't need a super fancy battery radar for drones), especially if networked. Automated fire controll. I can see a mass produced towed semi-semi automated (it shoots on it's own but has crew for reloading and everything else) flak system being a highly effective and economic counter to both long and midrange drones.
The main problem with that kind of design is possibly force concentration. Due to somewhat low range, you need them everywhere, and at each spot you need enough to defend against a massed attack. On the other hand, the attacker only needs enough drones to overwhelm your defenses at one spot.
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On September 15 2026 20:11 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2026 18:33 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On September 15 2026 15:50 ETisME wrote:How Russia’s new drones are changing the air war - https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/d6663804-aeb2-4467-bfbd-02eb8b74da0b via @FT Geran 4 and 5 are wrecking havoc, and Russia has now halted geran 3 to focus specifically on these two new models. There are more and more military bloggers saying it seems the missile defense will never be able to catch up to drone development and production. It is far easier and quicker for drones to adapt, and parts are much easier to procure. Definitely scary thought, when so much of our world stability are dependent on detecting and defending a devastating first strike advantage. IDK. A WWII 88 gun can reach their max cruise height with their flak rounds. That's a very simple design. The drone also has to come down to strike the target with limited evasive manouvers. There is a lot of room for improvement for an 88 type flak gun. Proximity fuses of course. Better radar (you don't need a super fancy battery radar for drones), especially if networked. Automated fire controll. I can see a mass produced towed semi-semi automated (it shoots on it's own but has crew for reloading and everything else) flak system being a highly effective and economic counter to both long and midrange drones. The main problem with that kind of design is possibly force concentration. Due to somewhat low range, you need them everywhere, and at each spot you need enough to defend against a massed attack. On the other hand, the attacker only needs enough drones to overwhelm your defenses at one spot.
Germany had ~10k guns at the end of the war. They fire 15-20 shells per minute.
Probably 4-5 guns per battery. Depending on how effective they are at taking down drones (they can start shooting at 8 km range) that's a lot of drones. Critical targets can have secondary defence like Skyrangers.
In a first strike scenario they are likely only deployed around military bases and extremely key infrastructure. Plus in a first strike scenario you will use more expensive missiles as well.
I think it could potentially be enough. You will need a lot of fused shells tho.
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On September 15 2026 21:06 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:Show nested quote +On September 15 2026 20:11 Simberto wrote:On September 15 2026 18:33 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:On September 15 2026 15:50 ETisME wrote:How Russia’s new drones are changing the air war - https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/d6663804-aeb2-4467-bfbd-02eb8b74da0b via @FT Geran 4 and 5 are wrecking havoc, and Russia has now halted geran 3 to focus specifically on these two new models. There are more and more military bloggers saying it seems the missile defense will never be able to catch up to drone development and production. It is far easier and quicker for drones to adapt, and parts are much easier to procure. Definitely scary thought, when so much of our world stability are dependent on detecting and defending a devastating first strike advantage. IDK. A WWII 88 gun can reach their max cruise height with their flak rounds. That's a very simple design. The drone also has to come down to strike the target with limited evasive manouvers. There is a lot of room for improvement for an 88 type flak gun. Proximity fuses of course. Better radar (you don't need a super fancy battery radar for drones), especially if networked. Automated fire controll. I can see a mass produced towed semi-semi automated (it shoots on it's own but has crew for reloading and everything else) flak system being a highly effective and economic counter to both long and midrange drones. The main problem with that kind of design is possibly force concentration. Due to somewhat low range, you need them everywhere, and at each spot you need enough to defend against a massed attack. On the other hand, the attacker only needs enough drones to overwhelm your defenses at one spot. Germany had ~10k guns at the end of the war. They fire 15-20 shells per minute. Probably 4-5 guns per battery. Depending on how effective they are at taking down drones (they can start shooting at 8 km range) that's a lot of drones. Critical targets can have secondary defence like Skyrangers. In a first strike scenario they are likely only deployed around military bases and extremely key infrastructure. Plus in a first strike scenario you will use more expensive missiles as well. I think it could potentially be enough. You will need a lot of fused shells tho.
Have you seen images of German cities at the end of WW2? Here is the city center of my home town in 1945:
![[image loading]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/USAAF_Hannover_Innenstadt_1945.jpg?utm_source=de.wikipedia.org&utm_campaign=imageinfo&utm_content=original)
You want more air defense than that.
I guess it mostly depends what you want them to actually do. It sounds reasonable that with enough guns, you can protect an area quite well.
But if we do the numbers for something like the Ukraine war, you'd need a lot of those things, and most won't really do anything. The frontline is about 1000 km long. You probably need another 1000 km on borders to the sea or Belarus. So lets say you want to cover 2000 km. You probably don't want your guns 8 km apart, lets say 4 for some overlap. That is 500 guns you need to cover the frontline in a single file.
But Russia only needs to blow up a single one of them to get in and get drones into lots of undefended land to wreak havoc. You can have even more guns around every single important target, but there are a lot of important targets.
I think they may be part of a good air defense system, but i also doubt that there is any kind of silver bullet for this. I also think there is probably a good reason no one is currently using that kind of system, because the people who run this war are infinitely more knowledgable about it than i am.
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For what I have been reading the main emphasis on defense for the jet powered drones, is jet powered interceptors drones. That could be because it’s just way cooler to talk about them the low tech solutions. But I think a big reason is the scalability and cost.
It seems that they are getting better all the time, but it’s a constant race because each side is getting better. If Ukraine can get up to as high on the jet as the non. And get the anti ballistics, it is really going to squeeze Russia.
It is crazy right now that Russian war bloggers are saying that the situation in Lyman area is much worse that what the Ukrainians are reporting and they are not sure why Ukraine is not boasting about it more. One said, that cracked me up, is they are not announcing it because then Russians MOD might actually see what’s going on and send reinforcements.
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On September 15 2026 23:13 Billyboy wrote:
For what I have been reading the main emphasis on defense for the jet powered drones, is jet powered interceptors drones. That could be because it’s just way cooler to talk about them the low tech solutions. But I think a big reason is the scalability and cost.
It seems that they are getting better all the time, but it’s a constant race because each side is getting better. If Ukraine can get up to as high on the jet as the non. And get the anti ballistics, it is really going to squeeze Russia.
It is crazy right now that Russian war bloggers are saying that the situation in Lyman area is much worse that what the Ukrainians are reporting and they are not sure why Ukraine is not boasting about it more. One said, that cracked me up, is they are not announcing it because then Russians MOD might actually see what’s going on and send reinforcements.
Ukraine has done that before, they do communication blackouts to not share information when advancing. Any communication will be viewed by Russia and thus can cause losses or even failure of a small campaign.
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I know, but the new part is that Russian war bloggers are talking about it, which in the past all they have done is talk about how hard the Russians are winning and talking about how the maps are so far behind the Russian gains and are biased for Ukraine. Now they are saying the opposite.
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EPT
