NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
On September 02 2026 23:21 Billyboy wrote: The body double stuff aside, which I agree is entertaining, Modi publicly saying Russia should end the war is pretty massive news, even if it seems lowkey. You have the country who is probably profiting the second most in the whole situation being like, OK enough. Is this because they are scared they will stop getting the discounted oil? Or want to be able to continue to get to sell them back gas once they have refined it? Worried Russia is heading for regime change? It must be self interest because if they cared about human suffering they would have made different choices all along the way. Fear or actual secondary sanctions? Was that CIA trip, were not messing around any more and was the message delivered to others?
On September 02 2026 09:50 Billyboy wrote: I parroted what every analyst who is studying the conflict said in summary. It is common knowledge that the Russian system lies upward with overly positive information. Even the Russian war bloggers complain about it.
Pretty much already adressed in my response, even before the edit, but sure I bite since this is getting even stupider. Yes the russian system lies upwards, has been addressed many times, even internally. The reasons for that are multi faceted and very far away from (just) the incredibly reductive "oh they lie so they don't fall out of windows". And your comment on the milbloggers kinda flies into the face of your own claim that the sberbank memo would be so dangerous to create (and even if its real, I see no claims that it was anything but an internal memo, nothing addressed at putin). Ofc you ignored all the other times I mentioned where something like this happened or the leaks that show these views being voiced internally that would be a problem for your claim.
When you put a perun video on in the background, maybe actually listen to it instead of just remembering the funny bits that are exaggerated for comedic effect. There is some really good, measured stuff in there. It feels more like you mostly engage with the social media and meme side of the "analysis" of this war.
You have some feels and a line about Russia being comically evil to lean back on. And for the record, Russian lead ship is comic book evil. They put out drone videos of them blasting people on bikes and taking out public busses (human safari). June was the record for civilian deaths, July broke that, and it is very likely when the numbers come in August will break that. They do send lots of people out of windows and send a bunch to prison if they at all disagree, or just need a distraction.
Your view on them is wacky, not mine.
I guess I should have been more clear. Comically evil to me is when people act as if russia does shit just because they are evil for evils sake. But they don't, there is a purpose to it. That is no excuse or defence for it, I think my views on russia are quite alright (go back like 4 or 5 posts from me in this thread and you will stumble across me saying things like the russian war crimes being inseparable from their military and government as a whole and reflective of them for example).
Edit: wrote this before your ninja edit, not re reading.
Unfortunate, a 2nd read could have really helped since you apparently missed so much on the first read already.
After that exchange, I just wish you were a man of your word.
Thanks for the reminder not to engage with this thread...
India is very dependent on imports of oil. They were one of the huge beneficiaries of the Russian sanctions as they bought it cheap, refined it and resold at large profit.
Now I assume Russian exports are less and combined with US closing down the strait of Hormuz the prices are not great for Indian citizens any longer. Modi probably wants oil prices to drop again and to get cheap Russian exports. Simplest way would be to end the war as Ukraine would stop hurting Russian exports but sanctions would still be up.
You’ve got it backwards. Russian crude exports are actually doing well as a consequence of so much refining capability being knocked offline. They’ve got more crude than they know what to do with and they’re exporting it.
The problem for them is that they used to produce more crude than they needed, refine as much as they could, meet their entire refined product need internally, export as much high margin refined surplus as possible, and export only whatever crude was excess to refining capacity. They did export crude, but they had a strong preference for exporting gasoline instead.
The strategy is unchanged but refining capacity has been hit so hard that the surplus refined products for exports after internal demand has been met has turned negative.
Let’s algebra it.
Crude production - Refining capacity = net crude export Refining capacity - internal demand = net refined export
Assuming crude production and internal demand stay constant as refining capacity goes down net crude export goes up and net refined export goes down.
They may make an extra $100 in crude oil sales but they lose out on more than $100 on gasoline sales that they otherwise would have had.
To reconcile this with a global experience of oil shortages we need to remember that this isn’t really marginal production, even though it’s additional crude on the global market. It’s fully offset by the reduced supply and additional demand for refined products. That has a knock on impact that means that the “extra” crude is already accounted for.
Theoretically it is good news for Indian refiners, though in practice with a global crude shortage there’s probably excess refining capability which would reduce the premiums earned by refining.
On September 03 2026 01:38 KwarK wrote: You’ve got it backwards. Russian crude exports are actually doing well as a consequence of so much refining capability being knocked offline. They’ve got more crude than they know what to do with and they’re exporting it.
The problem for them is that they used to produce more crude than they needed, refine as much as they could, meet their entire refined product need internally, export as much high margin refined surplus as possible, and export only whatever crude was excess to refining capacity. They did export crude, but they had a strong preference for exporting gasoline instead.
The strategy is unchanged but refining capacity has been hit so hard that the surplus refined products for exports after internal demand has been met has turned negative.
Let’s algebra it.
Crude production - Refining capacity = net crude export Refining capacity - internal demand = net refined export
Assuming crude production and internal demand stay constant as refining capacity goes down net crude export goes up and net refined export goes down.
They may make an extra $100 in crude oil sales but they lose out on more than $100 on gasoline sales that they otherwise would have had.
To reconcile this with a global experience of oil shortages we need to remember that this isn’t really marginal production, even though it’s additional crude on the global market. It’s fully offset by the reduced supply and additional demand for refined products. That has a knock on impact that means that the “extra” crude is already accounted for.
Theoretically it is good news for Indian refiners, though in practice with a global crude shortage there’s probably excess refining capability which would reduce the premiums earned by refining.
Totally agree, with one small caveat. Ukraine is (more was as partner states have asked them to slow down) taking out the shadow fleet, making it more difficult to export the glut of crude.
A fun fact about much of Russias oil production that is in the north is that they can’t just turn it back on if they turn it off. Everything will freeze and apparently it is massively expensive, if not impossible to restart.
On September 02 2026 23:21 Billyboy wrote: The body double stuff aside, which I agree is entertaining, Modi publicly saying Russia should end the war is pretty massive news, even if it seems lowkey. You have the country who is probably profiting the second most in the whole situation being like, OK enough. Is this because they are scared they will stop getting the discounted oil? Or want to be able to continue to get to sell them back gas once they have refined it? Worried Russia is heading for regime change? It must be self interest because if they cared about human suffering they would have made different choices all along the way. Fear or actual secondary sanctions? Was that CIA trip, were not messing around any more and was the message delivered to others?
On September 02 2026 09:50 Billyboy wrote: I parroted what every analyst who is studying the conflict said in summary. It is common knowledge that the Russian system lies upward with overly positive information. Even the Russian war bloggers complain about it.
Pretty much already adressed in my response, even before the edit, but sure I bite since this is getting even stupider. Yes the russian system lies upwards, has been addressed many times, even internally. The reasons for that are multi faceted and very far away from (just) the incredibly reductive "oh they lie so they don't fall out of windows". And your comment on the milbloggers kinda flies into the face of your own claim that the sberbank memo would be so dangerous to create (and even if its real, I see no claims that it was anything but an internal memo, nothing addressed at putin). Ofc you ignored all the other times I mentioned where something like this happened or the leaks that show these views being voiced internally that would be a problem for your claim.
When you put a perun video on in the background, maybe actually listen to it instead of just remembering the funny bits that are exaggerated for comedic effect. There is some really good, measured stuff in there. It feels more like you mostly engage with the social media and meme side of the "analysis" of this war.
You have some feels and a line about Russia being comically evil to lean back on. And for the record, Russian lead ship is comic book evil. They put out drone videos of them blasting people on bikes and taking out public busses (human safari). June was the record for civilian deaths, July broke that, and it is very likely when the numbers come in August will break that. They do send lots of people out of windows and send a bunch to prison if they at all disagree, or just need a distraction.
Your view on them is wacky, not mine.
I guess I should have been more clear. Comically evil to me is when people act as if russia does shit just because they are evil for evils sake. But they don't, there is a purpose to it. That is no excuse or defence for it, I think my views on russia are quite alright (go back like 4 or 5 posts from me in this thread and you will stumble across me saying things like the russian war crimes being inseparable from their military and government as a whole and reflective of them for example).
Edit: wrote this before your ninja edit, not re reading.
Unfortunate, a 2nd read could have really helped since you apparently missed so much on the first read already.
After that exchange, I just wish you were a man of your word.
Thanks for the reminder not to engage with this thread...
Every now and then you just gotta hit the low hanging fruits when they are foolish enough to blabber their nonsense. And I am easily triggered by people who seem to mostly engage with the meme side of the war and then present those as facts.
On September 02 2026 23:21 Billyboy wrote: The body double stuff aside, which I agree is entertaining, Modi publicly saying Russia should end the war is pretty massive news, even if it seems lowkey. You have the country who is probably profiting the second most in the whole situation being like, OK enough. Is this because they are scared they will stop getting the discounted oil? Or want to be able to continue to get to sell them back gas once they have refined it? Worried Russia is heading for regime change? It must be self interest because if they cared about human suffering they would have made different choices all along the way. Fear or actual secondary sanctions? Was that CIA trip, were not messing around any more and was the message delivered to others?
Or just old cranky men in a spat?
On September 02 2026 17:12 Artesimo wrote:
On September 02 2026 09:50 Billyboy wrote: I parroted what every analyst who is studying the conflict said in summary. It is common knowledge that the Russian system lies upward with overly positive information. Even the Russian war bloggers complain about it.
Pretty much already adressed in my response, even before the edit, but sure I bite since this is getting even stupider. Yes the russian system lies upwards, has been addressed many times, even internally. The reasons for that are multi faceted and very far away from (just) the incredibly reductive "oh they lie so they don't fall out of windows". And your comment on the milbloggers kinda flies into the face of your own claim that the sberbank memo would be so dangerous to create (and even if its real, I see no claims that it was anything but an internal memo, nothing addressed at putin). Ofc you ignored all the other times I mentioned where something like this happened or the leaks that show these views being voiced internally that would be a problem for your claim.
When you put a perun video on in the background, maybe actually listen to it instead of just remembering the funny bits that are exaggerated for comedic effect. There is some really good, measured stuff in there. It feels more like you mostly engage with the social media and meme side of the "analysis" of this war.
You have some feels and a line about Russia being comically evil to lean back on. And for the record, Russian lead ship is comic book evil. They put out drone videos of them blasting people on bikes and taking out public busses (human safari). June was the record for civilian deaths, July broke that, and it is very likely when the numbers come in August will break that. They do send lots of people out of windows and send a bunch to prison if they at all disagree, or just need a distraction.
Your view on them is wacky, not mine.
I guess I should have been more clear. Comically evil to me is when people act as if russia does shit just because they are evil for evils sake. But they don't, there is a purpose to it. That is no excuse or defence for it, I think my views on russia are quite alright (go back like 4 or 5 posts from me in this thread and you will stumble across me saying things like the russian war crimes being inseparable from their military and government as a whole and reflective of them for example).
Edit: wrote this before your ninja edit, not re reading.
Unfortunate, a 2nd read could have really helped since you apparently missed so much on the first read already.
After that exchange, I just wish you were a man of your word.
On September 02 2026 09:17 Artesimo wrote:
On September 02 2026 08:17 Billyboy wrote: Nope
Thanks for the reminder not to engage with this thread...
Every now and then you just gotta hit the low hanging fruits when they are foolish enough to blabber their nonsense. And I am easily triggered by people who seem to mostly engage with the meme side of the war and then present those as facts.
On September 02 2026 23:21 Billyboy wrote: The body double stuff aside, which I agree is entertaining, Modi publicly saying Russia should end the war is pretty massive news, even if it seems lowkey. You have the country who is probably profiting the second most in the whole situation being like, OK enough. Is this because they are scared they will stop getting the discounted oil? Or want to be able to continue to get to sell them back gas once they have refined it? Worried Russia is heading for regime change? It must be self interest because if they cared about human suffering they would have made different choices all along the way. Fear or actual secondary sanctions? Was that CIA trip, were not messing around any more and was the message delivered to others?
Or just old cranky men in a spat?
On September 02 2026 17:12 Artesimo wrote:
On September 02 2026 09:50 Billyboy wrote: I parroted what every analyst who is studying the conflict said in summary. It is common knowledge that the Russian system lies upward with overly positive information. Even the Russian war bloggers complain about it.
Pretty much already adressed in my response, even before the edit, but sure I bite since this is getting even stupider. Yes the russian system lies upwards, has been addressed many times, even internally. The reasons for that are multi faceted and very far away from (just) the incredibly reductive "oh they lie so they don't fall out of windows". And your comment on the milbloggers kinda flies into the face of your own claim that the sberbank memo would be so dangerous to create (and even if its real, I see no claims that it was anything but an internal memo, nothing addressed at putin). Ofc you ignored all the other times I mentioned where something like this happened or the leaks that show these views being voiced internally that would be a problem for your claim.
When you put a perun video on in the background, maybe actually listen to it instead of just remembering the funny bits that are exaggerated for comedic effect. There is some really good, measured stuff in there. It feels more like you mostly engage with the social media and meme side of the "analysis" of this war.
You have some feels and a line about Russia being comically evil to lean back on. And for the record, Russian lead ship is comic book evil. They put out drone videos of them blasting people on bikes and taking out public busses (human safari). June was the record for civilian deaths, July broke that, and it is very likely when the numbers come in August will break that. They do send lots of people out of windows and send a bunch to prison if they at all disagree, or just need a distraction.
Your view on them is wacky, not mine.
I guess I should have been more clear. Comically evil to me is when people act as if russia does shit just because they are evil for evils sake. But they don't, there is a purpose to it. That is no excuse or defence for it, I think my views on russia are quite alright (go back like 4 or 5 posts from me in this thread and you will stumble across me saying things like the russian war crimes being inseparable from their military and government as a whole and reflective of them for example).
Edit: wrote this before your ninja edit, not re reading.
Unfortunate, a 2nd read could have really helped since you apparently missed so much on the first read already.
After that exchange, I just wish you were a man of your word.
On September 02 2026 09:17 Artesimo wrote:
On September 02 2026 08:17 Billyboy wrote: Nope
Thanks for the reminder not to engage with this thread...
Every now and then you just gotta hit the low hanging fruits when they are foolish enough to blabber their nonsense. And I am easily triggered by people who seem to mostly engage with the meme side of the war and then present those as facts.
Unintentional irony is my favorite.
You know that attempt at an comeback would have worked better if it hadn't been so one sided who actually engaged with what the other person said and who contradicted themselves in their own messages... But keep trying.
On September 02 2026 23:21 Billyboy wrote: The body double stuff aside, which I agree is entertaining, Modi publicly saying Russia should end the war is pretty massive news, even if it seems lowkey. You have the country who is probably profiting the second most in the whole situation being like, OK enough. Is this because they are scared they will stop getting the discounted oil? Or want to be able to continue to get to sell them back gas once they have refined it? Worried Russia is heading for regime change? It must be self interest because if they cared about human suffering they would have made different choices all along the way. Fear or actual secondary sanctions? Was that CIA trip, were not messing around any more and was the message delivered to others?
Or just old cranky men in a spat?
On September 02 2026 17:12 Artesimo wrote:
On September 02 2026 09:50 Billyboy wrote: I parroted what every analyst who is studying the conflict said in summary. It is common knowledge that the Russian system lies upward with overly positive information. Even the Russian war bloggers complain about it.
Pretty much already adressed in my response, even before the edit, but sure I bite since this is getting even stupider. Yes the russian system lies upwards, has been addressed many times, even internally. The reasons for that are multi faceted and very far away from (just) the incredibly reductive "oh they lie so they don't fall out of windows". And your comment on the milbloggers kinda flies into the face of your own claim that the sberbank memo would be so dangerous to create (and even if its real, I see no claims that it was anything but an internal memo, nothing addressed at putin). Ofc you ignored all the other times I mentioned where something like this happened or the leaks that show these views being voiced internally that would be a problem for your claim.
When you put a perun video on in the background, maybe actually listen to it instead of just remembering the funny bits that are exaggerated for comedic effect. There is some really good, measured stuff in there. It feels more like you mostly engage with the social media and meme side of the "analysis" of this war.
You have some feels and a line about Russia being comically evil to lean back on. And for the record, Russian lead ship is comic book evil. They put out drone videos of them blasting people on bikes and taking out public busses (human safari). June was the record for civilian deaths, July broke that, and it is very likely when the numbers come in August will break that. They do send lots of people out of windows and send a bunch to prison if they at all disagree, or just need a distraction.
Your view on them is wacky, not mine.
I guess I should have been more clear. Comically evil to me is when people act as if russia does shit just because they are evil for evils sake. But they don't, there is a purpose to it. That is no excuse or defence for it, I think my views on russia are quite alright (go back like 4 or 5 posts from me in this thread and you will stumble across me saying things like the russian war crimes being inseparable from their military and government as a whole and reflective of them for example).
Edit: wrote this before your ninja edit, not re reading.
Unfortunate, a 2nd read could have really helped since you apparently missed so much on the first read already.
After that exchange, I just wish you were a man of your word.
On September 02 2026 09:17 Artesimo wrote:
On September 02 2026 08:17 Billyboy wrote: Nope
Thanks for the reminder not to engage with this thread...
Every now and then you just gotta hit the low hanging fruits when they are foolish enough to blabber their nonsense. And I am easily triggered by people who seem to mostly engage with the meme side of the war and then present those as facts.
Unintentional irony is my favorite.
You know that attempt at an comeback would have worked better if it hadn't been so one sided who actually engaged with what the other person said and who contradicted themselves in their own messages... But keep trying.
The hits keep coming.
I always enjoy when people like you who clearly are not following it closely but think they are really really smart, smarter then all the analysts get mad at push back against there really smart uniformed opinions.
Anyways have a good one, and please take your own advice!
On September 02 2026 23:21 Billyboy wrote: The body double stuff aside, which I agree is entertaining, Modi publicly saying Russia should end the war is pretty massive news, even if it seems lowkey. You have the country who is probably profiting the second most in the whole situation being like, OK enough. Is this because they are scared they will stop getting the discounted oil? Or want to be able to continue to get to sell them back gas once they have refined it? Worried Russia is heading for regime change? It must be self interest because if they cared about human suffering they would have made different choices all along the way. Fear or actual secondary sanctions? Was that CIA trip, were not messing around any more and was the message delivered to others?
Or just old cranky men in a spat?
On September 02 2026 17:12 Artesimo wrote:
On September 02 2026 09:50 Billyboy wrote: I parroted what every analyst who is studying the conflict said in summary. It is common knowledge that the Russian system lies upward with overly positive information. Even the Russian war bloggers complain about it.
Pretty much already adressed in my response, even before the edit, but sure I bite since this is getting even stupider. Yes the russian system lies upwards, has been addressed many times, even internally. The reasons for that are multi faceted and very far away from (just) the incredibly reductive "oh they lie so they don't fall out of windows". And your comment on the milbloggers kinda flies into the face of your own claim that the sberbank memo would be so dangerous to create (and even if its real, I see no claims that it was anything but an internal memo, nothing addressed at putin). Ofc you ignored all the other times I mentioned where something like this happened or the leaks that show these views being voiced internally that would be a problem for your claim.
When you put a perun video on in the background, maybe actually listen to it instead of just remembering the funny bits that are exaggerated for comedic effect. There is some really good, measured stuff in there. It feels more like you mostly engage with the social media and meme side of the "analysis" of this war.
You have some feels and a line about Russia being comically evil to lean back on. And for the record, Russian lead ship is comic book evil. They put out drone videos of them blasting people on bikes and taking out public busses (human safari). June was the record for civilian deaths, July broke that, and it is very likely when the numbers come in August will break that. They do send lots of people out of windows and send a bunch to prison if they at all disagree, or just need a distraction.
Your view on them is wacky, not mine.
I guess I should have been more clear. Comically evil to me is when people act as if russia does shit just because they are evil for evils sake. But they don't, there is a purpose to it. That is no excuse or defence for it, I think my views on russia are quite alright (go back like 4 or 5 posts from me in this thread and you will stumble across me saying things like the russian war crimes being inseparable from their military and government as a whole and reflective of them for example).
Edit: wrote this before your ninja edit, not re reading.
Unfortunate, a 2nd read could have really helped since you apparently missed so much on the first read already.
After that exchange, I just wish you were a man of your word.
On September 02 2026 09:17 Artesimo wrote:
On September 02 2026 08:17 Billyboy wrote: Nope
Thanks for the reminder not to engage with this thread...
Every now and then you just gotta hit the low hanging fruits when they are foolish enough to blabber their nonsense. And I am easily triggered by people who seem to mostly engage with the meme side of the war and then present those as facts.
Unintentional irony is my favorite.
You know that attempt at an comeback would have worked better if it hadn't been so one sided who actually engaged with what the other person said and who contradicted themselves in their own messages... But keep trying.
The hits keep coming.
I always enjoy when people like you who clearly are not following it closely but think they are really really smart, smarter then all the analysts get mad at push back against there really smart uniformed opinions.
Anyways have a good one, and please take your own advice!
Maybe link one of these many analysts that claim you risk getting fallen out of a window when doing any non public negative assessment of the russian war effort. It would really help your case after this has already been shown to be false by the people who did so even publicly and did not meet such an end for it. Or you know, keep doing what you've done before, just rephrasing what you already claimed and has been addressed and say "no u"
EDIT: So still nothing to address the claims actually made and instead falling back on vague strawmanning. Now I can truly set this to rest.
I think there is a wind of change in Russia, now Rybar, who is Russias most popular war blogger is saying things are not going as well as the MoD is announcing. He is saying they should freeze because they can’t advance and the IA forces are no where close to collapsing but can’t because of political forces in Russia can’t be seen as losing to the west or “so called “Ukraine”.
Stuff like this used to be punishable by jail time. Hell you couldn’t even call it a war. Now you have big time popular people, who are Russias biggest fans and desperately want Russia to win, calling them out.
The hopeful part of me thinks this could be a sign of the collapse most of us have been hoping for. But more of me thinks this is setting the table for a big mobilization push after the “elections” in a month. To sell to the people it is needed for their great victory.
And in case anyone needs some catch up on the basics.
On September 03 2026 01:38 KwarK wrote: crude production - refining capacity = net crude export refining capacity - internal demand = net refined export
This is a very nice and concise way to show the double impact of hitting the refining capacity has on the economy.
Regarding the India situation and what people are saying about them wanting more cheap stuff etc. The thing is, they might not want any more of the cheap stuff. When first RU got sanctioned and had to offer their oil at huge discounts to the only countries that were willing to trade with them those countries basically filled all of their reserves to the brim and made other deals that were beneficial to them.
It's not like a country can buy an infinite amount of oil without having a storage and distribution capacity for it. India and China bought what they could from the Russians and then it tapered off.
The situation might've changed with the conflict in the Middle East, where most of the oil from it is sent to Asia but I'm no expert on oil logistics.
And one other thing to keep in mind is that oil =/= oil. There are many different kinds of oil and refineries are typically set up to process just one type of it. That's why US has a huge problem now (despite what Trump is telling the masses), where they mostly dig up light oil domestically and sell it for export (more expensive type of oil) but refine heavier types of oil (from the Middle East mostly) and sell refined products from that since it's more profitable. US has no internal capacity to refine their own oil and most of the oil they can refine comes from Canada and the Middle East (who they are antagonizing at the moment). To switch refinery from one type of oil to another is a task that can take up to 3 years (if specialist machine parts are available).
TLDR: This whole oil export thing is way more complicated than most people think. Oil is not equal to oil and it's not easy to substitute one with another (refinery can't refine oil from two different sources).
Edit: Example: US could announce tomorrow that they have quadrillion barrels of oil available and ready to ship from Venezuela. It would still mean jack shit because there are very few refineries worldwide that can actually process Venezuelan oil.
Or in StarCraft terms: It doesn't matter if you're floating 10k minerals if you only have 2 barracks to spend them on. And getting access to a different type of oil than your refineries are doing is like having a lot of gas but no production facility that makes units that cost gas (like you build a gas extractor but have no advanced buildings).
AFAIK it is always a mix of up to 15 different oil sorts that is beeing refined in one refinery. Not sure how dramatic it really is where the oil is from as long as you have your "usual" crude oil to mix in to stay in specific parameters
Yeah, blending is definitely a big part of it, but as Manit0u pointed out, the hardware constraints on specific heavy/light crudes really limit how fast supply chains can adapt to disruptions.
Ukrainians should really stop accommodating the US. As US envoys fly to Moscow to talk with Putin, Ukraine agrees to stop their strikes for 3 days while Russians happily bomb Kiyv during this time...
Update to the ship on the Mediterranean that was hit. It was Russian arms heading to Iran. Seems like they are sending a message to US envoy heads of Trumps minister of personal enrichment.
EPT
