Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 736

On October 03 2024 23:53 zatic wrote:
I would be very careful with statements like this.

If true, it says that Russia might not be able to continue the war as it has until now. It does not mean Russia can't or won't continue the war. It just means the Russian leadership will have to chose where to make cuts to continue paying for the war.
And unfortunately I don't believe anything else has priority over the destruction of Ukraine for Putin. Nor do I believe any misery he will bring to his own people will cause enough pressure to scale back or stop the war.

On October 03 2024 23:53 zatic wrote:
I would be very careful with statements like this.

If true, it says that Russia might not be able to continue the war as it has until now. It does not mean Russia can't or won't continue the war. It just means the Russian leadership will have to chose where to make cuts to continue paying for the war.
And unfortunately I don't believe anything else has priority over the destruction of Ukraine for Putin. Nor do I believe any misery he will bring to his own people will cause enough pressure to scale back or stop the war.

On October 04 2024 00:01 2Pacalypse- wrote:
Yes, what zatic said. The perun video I linked earlier concludes the same thing. The war is definitely hurting Russia, a lot, but they can fight this war for much longer than 2025, if they(Putin) so chooses. However, it is true that the current intensity of fighting is not maintainable. So the economic issues might be a trigger for a big change in the war, but it's definitely not set in stone if and when that will happen.

On October 04 2024 01:17 Billyboy wrote:
The Russian war chest shrinking from 183Bn to 55bn from the start of the war to now is pretty telling. Especially when you consider that as a pariah state it will be really hard for them to get loans. Generally if a country made the massive investment they could expect a revenue from it, but almost all the Russian investment has been for things that explode in the Ukraine. Like if someone spent 1 m on a new machine for their factory or 1m on a fireworks show celebrating their business, sure they both spend 1m but one has a expected pay back and one was for ego. None of this massive investment Russia is making is going to have a payback and that is even before you get into the man power they lost, and they people they are losing are basically the most productive people in your society.

So I agree that who knows when or if they will run out of money, but what is certain is that Russia is in a worse position than it was before the war and at some point fairly soon that reality is going to start coming to the people of Russia. And it is going to get harder and harder for them to explain why all their sons are going off to die to make the country poorer.

Edit: they have also crushed their own military export business.

On October 04 2024 01:24 2Pacalypse- wrote:

To be fair, they did get a pretty sizeable and resource-rich chunk of land. Whether they can hold on to it remains to be seen though.

On October 04 2024 00:40 Gorsameth wrote:
Yeah I can appreciate articles about how the war is affect Russia and its stockpiles but anything about "X runs out by Y" is just useless crap. We know countries can keep going on fumes for a long time and there are all sorts of ways to draw out what are supposedly the current reserves.

On October 06 2024 05:57 Slydie wrote:
This is talked about far too little. The EU has a lion's share of the responsability for this war not ending by financing it through continued gas imports. Words are one thing, action is another, and the gas keeps flowing, partly through Ukraine!

https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-still-second-largest-gas-provider-eu-after-norway-lng-imports-increasing

Russia obviously played this out very well, knowing that the EU had no viable alternatives, and the EU is willing to fund both sides of the war, as long as they get the cheap energy they need.

I just watched another documentary about blocking their oil exports destroyed Iraq as a country. The west know perfectly well how effective this can be, but they are refusing to in this case. Does anyone know some more details about this weird game of energy, territory and power?

On October 07 2024 05:32 Manit0u wrote:
Unfortunately a lot of Europe runs on natural gas and it's impossible to just cut it off, especially when Russia was providing the vast majority of it. At least the current situation has opened up some of the countries' eyes to the fact that they should probably look towards diversifying their sources of gas.

Europe’s natural gas pipeline receipts from Russia declined by 58% (6.3 Bcf/d) in 2022 and 89% (9.7 Bcf/d) in 2023, compared with the 2021 annual average. Europe has primarily used liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to offset reduced imports from Russia.

On October 07 2024 06:03 Lmui wrote:


It's not like they aren't trying either:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62564



Dropping gas consumption by almost ~20% in two years is an incredible feat for a continent. It's going to take a lot of work,




I wouldn't be surprised to see those numbers continue to decline over the next two years. This is billions of dollars of supply chain migration, it's not something you can snap your fingers and change.

On October 07 2024 06:36 Acrofales wrote:

We could do more, though: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Can-Europe-Survive-Winter-Without-Russian-Gas-Experts-Weigh-In.html#:~:text=Analysts argue that completely cutting,demand and overcome regulatory challenges.

Basically we just need to get our shit together (politically). One analysis finds we could just close the tap and be completely fine. The other finds that we'd have to reduce our dependency on gas even further, although the way I understand that, we'd have enough reserves already for the upcoming winter, so we'd have another year to fix that dependency once and for all, which should be doable.

The main conclusion is that the EU could not only go through the next winter without Russian gas, but it could also do so without having to experience economic catastrophe. However, for this to happen, Europe would have to overcome severe technical and regulatory challenges and also slash its annual demand for natural gas by 10-15% as no amount of non-Russian imports would be enough to sufficiently refill storages ahead of the next winter.

On October 07 2024 06:43 Gorsameth wrote:
Just get everyone to agree on a whole bunch of issues and cut 15% of demand. ez

We should continuously work to reduce our dependency on gas in general and Russia in particular but its a lot easier to do some research and say "X Y Z should based on our research manage it" compared to actually doing it in real time when failure has rather bad economic consequences.