EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 726
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KwarK
United States42695 Posts
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zboh
42 Posts
On September 17 2024 18:34 Excludos wrote: Russian losses 17/09/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff 1020 KWIA 2 Tanks 6 APVs 6 Artillery systems 1 MLRS 66 UAVs 27 Vehicles and Fuel tanks 1 Special equipment For anyone who's been keeping tabs, this is a huge downturn in artillery systems. Not really enough data to go on other than pure speculation, could just be a anomaly after all. But it could equally signify either a lack of ammunition or systems to target artillery with, or Russia simply starting to run out and pulling what they have further back and out of the line of fire Ukrainian General Staff? Have you posted anything from the Russian General Staff? Like the number of dead admirals? US strongly disagrees with the number of destroyed Russian aircraft provided by Ukraine, like 1/3 of what Ukraine says. | ||
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KwarK
United States42695 Posts
On September 18 2024 01:24 zboh wrote: Ukrainian General Staff? Have you posted anything from the Russian General Staff? Like the number of dead admirals? US strongly disagrees with the number of destroyed Russian aircraft provided by Ukraine, like 1/3 of what Ukraine says. The Russian statistics assert that nobody died since the first month of the invasion and also that half a million men have been recruited while the army size is somehow unchanged. One of their numbers must be wrong. | ||
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zboh
42 Posts
On September 18 2024 01:22 KwarK wrote: Russia believes it is at war with the west and has for some time because it cannot imagine foreign relations as anything but a zero sum game. NATO does not consider itself at war with Russia but it’s motivated to shut Russia’s bullshit down. Russian "believes" or there are public statements about it? It would be really strange to believe yourself at war (against NATO, none the less) and not mobilize your armed forces, and the whole country for that matter. Russian interests are in opposition to western interests, as western interests are in opposition to China's interests. | ||
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zboh
42 Posts
On September 18 2024 01:27 KwarK wrote: The Russian statistics assert that nobody died since the first month of the invasion and also that half a million men have been recruited while the army size is somehow unchanged. One of their numbers must be wrong. Exactly my point. I am not going to believe official statements from either side, nor the Five O'clock Follies. | ||
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KwarK
United States42695 Posts
On September 18 2024 01:42 zboh wrote: Exactly my point. I am not going to believe official statements from either side, nor the Five O'clock Follies. Ukraine’s claimed Russian casualty numbers are consistent with Russia’s claimed intake numbers. Russia lies therefore truth does not exist is not the correct lesson to take. | ||
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KwarK
United States42695 Posts
On September 18 2024 01:36 zboh wrote: Russian "believes" or there are public statements about it? It would be really strange to believe yourself at war (against NATO, none the less) and not mobilize your armed forces, and the whole country for that matter. Russian interests are in opposition to western interests, as western interests are in opposition to China's interests. Russian state tv announces the war against NATO nightly. Whenever Medvedev drinks he declares that NATO has crossed the line and now it’s war. Have you not been paying attention? | ||
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Excludos
Norway8081 Posts
On September 18 2024 01:24 zboh wrote: Ukrainian General Staff? Have you posted anything from the Russian General Staff? Like the number of dead admirals? US strongly disagrees with the number of destroyed Russian aircraft provided by Ukraine, like 1/3 of what Ukraine says. Numbers are optimistic, but generally backed up by independent sources. Russian numbers are backed up the imagination of Putin, and belongs one number less from Narnia. That's why I share one but not the other | ||
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iFU.spx
Russian Federation370 Posts
On September 17 2024 12:06 KwarK wrote: Your English is better than my Russian so it’ll probably be easier for you to find a Russian state source. The budget passed the Duma mid last November if that helps you narrow it down. It’s their official state budget so it should be easy enough for you to validate the budgeted decline in 2026. item-period,2024,2025,2026 total revenue expected,35062513540,33552352862,34050982668 national security,2093370750,2086478639,2172196727 national defense,2240989855,2019948247,1972017769 share,12,36%,12,24%,12,17% I took only main expeditures for defense. No indication of decline. Can you provide source of your information about "decline" ? I am still confused how did you came up with this conclusion | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17257 Posts
On September 18 2024 02:47 iFU.spx wrote: item-period,2024,2025,2026 total revenue expected,35062513540,33552352862,34050982668 national security,2093370750,2086478639,2172196727 national defense,2240989855,2019948247,1972017769 share,12,36%,12,24%,12,17% I took only main expeditures for defense. No indication of decline. Can you provide source of your information about "decline" ? I am still confused how did you came up with this conclusion 6.39 -> 6.02 -> 5.97 - budget for the military is being shrunk every year. The national security budget is being increased 5.97 -> 6.21 -> 6.37 but a lot of stuff goes into it (not regular army though, national guard, intelligence, law enforcement etc.). To me it seems like external forces are being reduced while internal ones are being strengthened (perhaps in preparation for post-war unrest? Who knows...). Edit: I'm kinda interested to see how will the economy in Russia shape itself as this goes on. They had a serious brain-drain with skilled people leaving en-masse, a lot of the workforce has been sent to the front (now they're drafting another 180k) and big chunks of it were swallowed by the military industry. This doesn't really look like a recipe for a healthy and diverse economy... Especially when the war ends. There won't be any more need for so many people in the military industry but there won't be any jobs left to return to. It's not like you can create new businesses and entire supply chains overnight to accommodate sudden influx in labor force. | ||
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KwarK
United States42695 Posts
It’s their own government and it’s borrowing the money it’s paying them with from the Russian workers, from their sovereign wealth fund, from their futures. And it’s spending it all on destruction. Imagine an alternate universe in which the Russian government decided to pay a few million Russians $50k signup bonuses to dig holes in the ground and fill them back in again. The Russian worker would experience the exact same thing as the demand for their labour went through the roof. That universe would be better than the current one for the Russian economy because those workers could eventually return to other productive. But in that universe the workers would still think the economic policy was great as their pay soared. In a way it’s much like the COVID lockdown experience. Everyone I know did very well out of nobody showing up to work. It’s not because not working is a new super productive form of activity, it’s because government handouts don’t correlate to the overall economy. | ||
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Lmui
Canada6213 Posts
On September 17 2024 06:43 Gorsameth wrote: Russia had large reserves of tanks and vehicles, a remnant from the cold war. These are stored in large storage yards (just like the US stores its surplus supply in the desert). These sites are monitored, images from them are publicly available. People count them when they get updated. They can see the equipment being removed from storage. Does this paint a complete picture? no. Does it give indications? yes. Just published today: An overview of the remaining towed artillery that's visible from satellite imagery. The tl;dw is that there's 40%-50% depending on how you count of pre-war artillery remaining. The majority of the remainder is in the smaller calibers, with around 1/3 of the large calibers remaining in storage. There's a high probability that the remainder may not be in the best of shape as well, so large artillery is likely running out in the next year or so. | ||
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zboh
42 Posts
Numbers are optimistic, but generally backed up by independent sources. Russian numbers are backed up the imagination of Putin, and belongs one number less from Narnia. That's why I share one but not the other[/QUOTE] I guess it depends on what you mean by "generally". https://news.sky.com/story/global-military-spending-jumps-9-to-1-7trn-13070513#:~:text=News | Sky News-,Russia has lost 3,000 tanks in war as world entering,"a more dangerous period". https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-wsj-deaths-1955023 Ukraine says 8.000 Russian tanks. An estimate of 800.000 Russian casualties, a western estimate: who is independent? Zelensky's 31.000 Ukrainian killed is not coming from Narnia? There are plenty of numbers around, you just need to find and believe the optimistic number you like and, disregard every other one as propaganda. I cannot remember any Indian estimate (for both sides), but US was saying 3.000 tanks and 100 aircraft; always estimates. For me, the difference is Ukraine talking about Ukraine. Do you have any Russian source talking about Russia? Any "declaration against interest"? | ||
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Nezgar
Germany534 Posts
There are a bunch of links and sources in the description for those who want more than just some Aussie bloke's word on it. You can see those stockpiles with satellites, you can pay companies to take pictures of locations for you and you can manually count the stuff you see on those pictures. It's not that there are a few pieces missing. It's that entire yards have been emptied except for the most ancient stuff. And even some of that has been reactivated and hauled to the frontlines. | ||
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Falling
Canada11350 Posts
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zeo
Serbia6284 Posts
Just dont want to accept the truth they all froze to death and starved some time ago according to an X post from March 2022 and reposted every month since then, sad really. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10716 Posts
But nice of you to blame the people here for what some people on X claim. | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5595 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25372 Posts
On September 18 2024 16:32 Elroi wrote: But his articles from Reuters and BBC are pretty good examples of copium. Not that far away from the propaganda from the Russian side tbf. When I read this thread and want to get a picture of what is happening, I take whatever Manitou says plus whatever zeo says and divide the sum by two. Perhaps so, perhaps not. They’re just some blokes/blokettes being quoted on their assessments, and there are that many moving parts and unknowns they may simply be just wrong. Or they could be part of a concerted effort to make investment from various countries into this endeavour seen more palatable by painting Ukraine’s prospects in a more rosey light. So yeah there might be some propagandist element to it, it still pales in comparison to the more overt form of that which we see emanating from Russian outlets and that gets recirculated here. | ||
hexhaven
Finland931 Posts
On September 18 2024 16:32 Elroi wrote: But his articles from Reuters and BBC are pretty good examples of copium. Not that far away from the propaganda from the Russian side tbf. When I read this thread and want to get a picture of what is happening, I take whatever Manitou says plus whatever zeo says and divide the sum by two. This is also a quote from the BBC article: The BBC has been unable to independently verify these reports. The ministry did not give information on where such battles were taking place. Analysts say that although there is indeed an ammunition shortage, the situation is more complex than the intelligence update suggests, with Russian forces still using twice as much ammunition as the Ukrainian side. So zeo is claiming that Russian soldiers have been fighting with shovels since February 2023, based on a BBC article that references the UK's Ministry of Defence. The MoD itself says that mobilized reservists were using both firearms and shovels. It's a big front, there will be supply shortages in some parts, sometimes more often, sometimes less often, and whether it's food, ammunition, fresh water, etc. Almost certainly there have been some, possibly even many, poorly prepared assaults on enemy positions. Entrenching tools also have a long tradition of being used in close combat, so it's not really that unfeasible that there have been instances of hand-to-hand combat. They're very handy and versatile tools. It's also very likely that the entrenching tools have been occasionally used since the beginning of the conflict, and not just since February 2023. | ||
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