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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On March 20 2022 00:15 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Well this isn't good, makes me wonder how many pieces of the missile survived and trying to get to them. Also thought the whole idea behind such a weapon that it is so fast it cant be tracked.
Only things that can't be tracked are congressional pork package spending, santa, and iraq's WMDs. Everything else leaves some kind of signature.
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On March 20 2022 00:15 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Well this isn't good, makes me wonder how many pieces of the missile survived and trying to get to them. Also thought the whole idea behind such a weapon that it is so fast it cant be tracked. https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1505200842785316866
Maybe they just tracked the launch itself, not the missle trajectory (as in, satelites had eyes on the launch pads)
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So apparently Russia is now forcibly relocating Ukrainian citizens into Russia.
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That seems very counter productive... think the forced resettled Ukrainians are going to keep their mouths shut about the War?
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Would you rather keep them in a city that's still a battleground?
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Or ya know allow them to leave the city and head where they want. The proposed evacuation corridor the Russians state they aren't firing on.
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On March 20 2022 05:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
That seems very counter productive... think the forced resettled Ukrainians are going to keep their mouths shut about the War?
Probably. The Russians are quick to punish their own citizens for expressing unwanted opinions; what do you think they will do or threaten to do to people who are already essentially their prisoners?
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United States43877 Posts
On March 20 2022 06:00 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Or ya know allow them to leave the city and head where they want. The proposed evacuation corridor the Russians state they aren't firing on.
They kept firing on the corridor where journalists could see.
They can’t feed their own army at the moment (due to logistical issues getting resources to the front), they certainly can’t supply the civilian population of Mariupol. Getting those mouths away from the front makes a certain amount of sense. It makes it easier for them to brand whoever remains as a combatant which lets them loosen the rules of war.
I can see a kind of logic to “why don’t we move the civilians from the city we can’t supply where the battle is to somewhere less complicated”. It’s not ideal but the whole operation is clearly being made up on the fly at this point and that makes as much sense as anything else would.
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Re: a discussion about Russian troop numbers that happened in the EU-pol thread before this one even opened.
I finally tracked down the 'Russia has deployed 75% of their troops to Ukraine' estimate. It actually comes from Russians themselves, namely their MoD Sergei Soigu who last year told that Russia can field 168 BTGs. Western estimates of the troops in Ukraine range between 110-120 BTGs, which is roughly in that 75% range.
The rough idea is that each brigade (5000ish men) fields three BTGs (800-1000men each) two of which are deployed while the third one stays at home training conscripts, manning the garrisons/whatever else.
Came across it in a Finnish paper which is also paywalled so likely not gona be the easiest source for most folk here: + Show Spoiler +
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On March 20 2022 16:28 Oukka wrote:Re: a discussion about Russian troop numbers that happened in the EU-pol thread before this one even opened. I finally tracked down the 'Russia has deployed 75% of their troops to Ukraine' estimate. It actually comes from Russians themselves, namely their MoD Sergei Soigu who last year told that Russia can field 168 BTGs. Western estimates of the troops in Ukraine range between 110-120 BTGs, which is roughly in that 75% range. The rough idea is that each brigade (5000ish men) fields three BTGs (800-1000men each) two of which are deployed while the third one stays at home training conscripts, manning the garrisons/whatever else. Came across it in a Finnish paper which is also paywalled so likely not gona be the easiest source for most folk here: + Show Spoiler +
I think the discussion was more about the available trained troops. The army is much larger but it is hard to deploy all of it to one front and one war at once. Considering the logistic issues they have had doing as they did then deploying the professional army with minor draftees was the right choice. Having more people there sounds good on paper but they can't fully supply what they have there.
Not sure how accurate this analysis of their logistics being fully screwed by poor maintenance in the next 2 months is. I've seen previous discussions that there was too few logistic trucks for the troops at the start and it hasn't exactly improved since then. If the war is going to continue a long time I think Russia needs to fix the rails to get trains into the conquered cities and then guard them so Ukraine doesn't take them out.
Short form: 6-to-8 weeks more fighting will deadline the entire Russian Army military truck fleet.
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This is all good news, but 6-8 weeks is a long time in war. I suppose Putin will only increase violence during that time, more missiles, more hospitals bombed, etc.
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Doubt this will pass, especially with Germany relying on Russia for heating etc. Unless they somehow manage to find a way to manage without it in 6 months time.
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Another Russian Commander, this time a Naval one, has been killed.
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Dude how are the Russians losing so much at sea? The Ukrainians don't even have a navy! Edit: even without this dude being a general, the Russians have already lost a handful of ships. Are the Ukrainians sinking them with Jets? Drones? Shore based Artillery?
Also turns out the guy killed wasn't a general.
https://twitter.com/kevinpurcell/status/1505630722417037313?s=20&t=3tY0DoVa17E4IHNYpQMwgQ
Still confused at what his role actually was but he wasn't the General of the Black Sea Fleet that's a different guy.
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On March 21 2022 08:00 Vindicare605 wrote:Dude how are the Russians losing so much at sea? The Ukrainians don't even have a navy! Edit: even without this dude being a general, the Russians have already lost a handful of ships. Are the Ukrainians sinking them with Jets? Drones? Shore based Artillery? Also turns out the guy killed wasn't a general. https://twitter.com/kevinpurcell/status/1505630722417037313?s=20&t=3tY0DoVa17E4IHNYpQMwgQStill confused at what his role actually was but he wasn't the General of the Black Sea Fleet that's a different guy.
They sunk one ship off the coast of Odessa with a freaking MRLS. xD
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On March 21 2022 08:00 Vindicare605 wrote:Dude how are the Russians losing so much at sea? The Ukrainians don't even have a navy! Edit: even without this dude being a general, the Russians have already lost a handful of ships. Are the Ukrainians sinking them with Jets? Drones? Shore based Artillery? Also turns out the guy killed wasn't a general. https://twitter.com/kevinpurcell/status/1505630722417037313?s=20&t=3tY0DoVa17E4IHNYpQMwgQStill confused at what his role actually was but he wasn't the General of the Black Sea Fleet that's a different guy.
The person killed may not have been at sea. Considering the bizarre amphibious landing near Mariupol, it is more likely that any naval officer killed be in the Russian naval infantry/marines and was killed in the fighting around Mariupol. Not aware of any Russian naval losses. There was supposedly one ship hit by land based missile artillery but it was also reported later that the ship is still sailing.
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EPT
