Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 612

On October 20 2023 03:34 JimmiC wrote:

How long can the Russian's keep up this active defense, it seems really expensive in terms of equipment and man power?

On October 20 2023 02:04 zeo wrote:

OK. First take a deep breath in, hold it for 4 seconds then breath out for 4 seconds, hold that state for 4 seconds and repeat the cycle. Its called box breathing and I think it will really help you chill out a bit and not seem so...

Before all else, I've addressed ISW before but I'll say it again: Please keep in mind that the Insitute for the Study of War is run by Victoria Nulands sister-in-law - Kimberly Kagan. Her husband Frederick Kagan, works as a visiting analyst and along with his wife receives the lions share of ISWs donations/budget as their salaries. Frederick Kagan is the brother of neocon Robert Kagan. Robert, in turn, is married to US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria 'let them eat cake' Nuland.
This 'think-tank' has a vested interest in pro-Kiev skewing of facts and 'analysis' while doing contract work for US government agencies as 'independants'. So, there should be a disclaimer or footnote attached to whatever ISW puts out.

You apparently want me to give my take on this ISW extract from Kwark, which is itself giving its own take on a Putin interview. So the statement is: "Putin claimed in an interview on Russian state television on October 15 that Russian forces are conducting an “active defense” in the Avdiivka, Kupyansk, and Zaporizhia directions" - ok lets look at what the sources their are using say. Please keep in mind that these are Google translates:

RIA NOVOSTI
MOSCOW, October 15 – RIA Novosti. The Ukrainian counter-offensive failed completely, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with Pavel Zarubin in the “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin” program on the “Russia 1” channel, a fragment from which the journalist posted on the Telegram channel.
Asking a question about the situation in the military special operation zone, the journalist recalled statements coming from Kyiv that the counteroffensive had stalled.
(yes this is literally the entire article)

INTERFAX
Moscow. October 15. INTERFAX.RU - The counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has failed completely, but in some areas Kyiv is preparing new active offensive operations, said Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“As for the counter-offensive, which is allegedly stalled, it failed completely. We know that in certain areas of the fighting, however, the opposing side is preparing new active offensive operations. We see this, we know,” Putin said in an interview with the Moscow program .Kremlin.Putin" of the TV channel "Russia-1" (VGTRK), a fragment of which was posted by journalist Pavel Zarubin on his Telegram channel.
“And we also react to this accordingly,” Putin added.
Putin said that Russian troops are improving the situation in almost the entire Northeast Military District.
“What is happening now throughout the entire contact is called “active defense”. And our troops are improving their position in almost all of this space. Quite a large space,” said the Russian President.
According to him, this applies “to the Kupyansky direction, this also applies to the Zaporozhye direction, and this applies to the Avdeevsky direction.” “If we take it broadly, settlements there can be called differently, I’m speaking in aggregate. Yes, this is active defense with an improvement in its position in individual areas,” he noted.
Russia does not hide this, Putin said, and thanked the Russian Armed Forces, the leadership and, above all, the fighters on the front lines for their courage and heroism.

TASS
The President noted that Kiev is preparing new active offensive operations in certain sectors of the front.
MOSCOW, October 15. /TASS/. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has completely failed, although Kyiv is preparing new active offensive operations in certain sectors of the front. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated this in an interview with the “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin” program, a fragment of which journalist Pavel Zarubin published on his Telegram channel.
“As for the counter-offensive, which is supposedly stalled, it failed completely. We know that in certain areas of the fighting, the opposing side is nevertheless preparing new active offensive operations. We see this, we know it. And we also react to it accordingly,” - Putin said.

Now, after reading all that go back to the statement only one of these sources actually has anything to do with what ISW is claiming. Putin says the counter-offensive has failed completely in all three, one says that they are improving positions and 'in aggregate you can call it an active-defense'. If I've understood you correctly you have a problem with the term 'active-defense' being used instead of 'offence'.

And you're right I in general have a pet peeve with these kinds of word-plays. For months people would talk about the Ukrainian 'counter-offensive' when obviously after 6 months of talking about it and nothing happening it became just an 'offensive'. I mean look, everyone wants to brand armies as defensive, you the the defense ministry, the defense industry ect ect. I'm not quite sure what kind of spin you are looking for from me. The ISW article is a spin on the words of Putin that is spinning taking territory as defensive, so that you can spin it to look like Russia is losing.

I find it interesting that ISW doesnt think active defense and active combat are the same thing. If you are engaged in defense... you are engaged in combat... actively. Am I missing something here? If every Russian official is not using the exact same words its somehow indicative of... something?

Lets read the TASS article used as a source by ISW:

Russian troops have switched to active combat operations along almost the entire front, said Russia's permanent representative to the UN
UN, October 13. /TASS/. Russian troops began active combat operations along the entire front, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive can be considered completed. This was stated by the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Vasily Nebenzya.
For several days now, Russian troops have begun active combat operations along almost the entire front line.
Thus, the so-called Ukrainian counter-offensive can already be considered completed,” he said at a meeting convened at Russia’s initiative on Western arms supplies to Kyiv.
Nebenzya added that the Kiev regime, apart from the tens of thousands of dead recruits it mobilized, as well as the hundreds of units of destroyed Western equipment, “cannot boast of anything.” “However, our Western colleagues, instead of putting an end to this massacre, continue to throw weapons at him, like a drug to a drug addict, thereby prolonging his agony. Their task, through the hands of Ukraine, is to inflict as much damage on Russia as possible, and also to make the territory of Ukraine uninhabitable to the maximum extent possible.” ", he concluded.
The Ukrainian army has been making unsuccessful offensive attempts since June 4. As Russian President Vladimir Putin said on October 5, Kyiv lost over 90 thousand people and more than 550 tanks in four months. The Russian side has repeatedly emphasized that the “counter-offensive” did not bring significant results

On October 20 2023 04:48 Mikau wrote:


Ah, I wasn't expecting that kind of spin.

The "Putin didn't say it because I don't like the people reporting on it" kind.

I really thought you would say it was always inteded as active defence, despite you calling it an offence about 3 pages ago.

On October 20 2023 20:48 Ryzel wrote:
As an outsider lurking in, I have to say this thread’s circlejerk attacks on zeo these last couple of pages come off as incredibly obnoxious. It greatly cheapens the discussion when everyone proactively shits on a poster, that poster still actually takes the time to try and defend himself and engage in the discussion, and he gets more ad hominems as a result. No real substance, just two pages of “gotcha”s.

I’ve been following the thread since the beginning, and I’m aware of zeo’s posting history here. Typically when he posts something inflammatory, it gets argued down and his points countered, which is how it should be. Not proactive posts about “I wonder what stupid shit X poster will come up with, I bet it will be stupid lmao”. IMO if someone is allowed in a discussion they should be treated with a baseline level of respect, and if they have shown to not deserve that respect by arguing in bad faith or what not then they should be removed from the discussion by mods via a ban. Since that hasn’t happened, and no one is arguing for it, I can only assume people are only annoyed with him because he’s posting points/using logic they don’t like or approve of. If that’s all it takes to degrade the discussion, that speaks poorly on its participants.

I lurk this thread because I respect the posters in general and the insights gleaned from discussion taking place here. Can we please do better?

On October 20 2023 20:48 Ryzel wrote:
As an outsider lurking in, I have to say this thread’s circlejerk attacks on zeo these last couple of pages come off as incredibly obnoxious. It greatly cheapens the discussion when everyone proactively shits on a poster, that poster still actually takes the time to try and defend himself and engage in the discussion, and he gets more ad hominems as a result. No real substance, just two pages of “gotcha”s.

I’ve been following the thread since the beginning, and I’m aware of zeo’s posting history here. Typically when he posts something inflammatory, it gets argued down and his points countered, which is how it should be. Not proactive posts about “I wonder what stupid shit X poster will come up with, I bet it will be stupid lmao”. IMO if someone is allowed in a discussion they should be treated with a baseline level of respect, and if they have shown to not deserve that respect by arguing in bad faith or what not then they should be removed from the discussion by mods via a ban. Since that hasn’t happened, and no one is arguing for it, I can only assume people are only annoyed with him because he’s posting points/using logic they don’t like or approve of. If that’s all it takes to degrade the discussion, that speaks poorly on its participants.

I lurk this thread because I respect the posters in general and the insights gleaned from discussion taking place here. Can we please do better?

On October 20 2023 21:58 Harris1st wrote:
The first ATACMS attacks allegedly were devastating, destroying a bunch of helicopters (Kamow Ka-52 Alligator) near Berdjansk with cluster warheads. Haven't been able to verify yet

Edit: Those were regulated at a range of about 165 km. Ukraine hopes to get some more without these limits for the full range of about 300 km, reaching well into Crimea

On October 20 2023 21:58 Harris1st wrote:
The first ATACMS attacks allegedly were devastating, destroying a bunch of helicopters (Kamow Ka-52 Alligator) near Berdjansk with cluster warheads. Haven't been able to verify yet

Edit: Those were regulated at a range of about 165 km. Ukraine hopes to get some more without these limits for the full range of about 300 km, reaching well into Crimea

On October 20 2023 23:31 sertas wrote:


uk intelligence say it was 14 helicopters in berdyansk and luhansk destroyed

On October 21 2023 00:34 Sermokala wrote:

Osint says it's more accurate to say 21 damaged or destroyed. Planes and helicopters are very fragile things on the ground and the ones that have survived will need to be checked up and down before going out.

It's incredible that after all the leaks and warnings it was still a massive success. I can't help but to think it would have helped the counter offensive a lot to eliminate those kh-52s when they were causing so much trouble.

Speaking off the Russians have not stopped their offensive in the southeast and it's going very poorly. Ukraine claimed 55 tanks 120 apcs and 1380 killed in a day.

On October 20 2023 20:48 Ryzel wrote:
IMO if someone is allowed in a discussion they should be treated with a baseline level of respect.

On October 20 2023 03:34 JimmiC wrote:

How long can the Russian's keep up this active defense, it seems really expensive in terms of equipment and man power?

Why is active defense better than regular defense? It seems to me like regular defense and active you keep the same land but with active defense you lose much more equipment than your foe.