EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 570
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maybenexttime
Poland5761 Posts
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Vindicare605
United States16121 Posts
On September 02 2023 18:53 Magic Powers wrote: Kyiv HAS offered to talk many times in early 2022. Putin used every single one of these opportunities to attempt to gain tactical advantages on the battlefield. He didn't engage in any talks whatsoever. He is the one who's not interested in negotiations, he's interested only in total surrender by Kyiv. When are you finally going to accept this reality and stop pretending there's an alternative as long as Putin is in power? Not that I don't agree with you, but let's look at this another way. Russia is not going to back out of this war. They can't afford to. The West has effectively backed them into a corner where they have lost nearly all of the economic leverage they used to have with Oil and Gas. Finland and Sweden are joining NATO. If they pull back with anything less than a victory they will be humiliated to a fatal degree. They will lose all power and authority as a serious state. They can't afford to lose this war. They will keep sending men and material, since they are now being armed by N. Korea and by proxy probably China indefinitely until their own people rise up against the regime to stop the war (which doesnt seem like it will ever happen since Russia's propaganda machine is so strong) or until Kyiv folds, and those are the good outcomes because there's the obvious Nuclear Option still sitting on the table that as much we don't want it to be real is still a real possibility if Putin gets desperate enough. So that being said. How does Ukraine actually win this war? They don't have enough men to kick out Russia completely, not if Putin is willing to sacrifice every man and boy in Russia to keep the war going, and Russia isn't going to withdraw with anything less than a bullshit treaty that massively favors them. So how do they win? This looks to me like a stalemate that doesn't have an end. Is that a good outcome for Ukraine? For any of us? If there are no diplomatic solutions to be had here, because Putin can't be trusted to negotiate in good faith, (which I agree with, he cant be trusted) then the only solution is a complete military victory one way or another, and right now it doesn't seem like either side is capable of actually achieving that. So what the hell are we supposed to do? Just let the war go on forever? | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5761 Posts
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Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On September 02 2023 21:19 Vindicare605 wrote: Not that I don't agree with you, but let's look at this another way. Russia is not going to back out of this war. They can't afford to. The West has effectively backed them into a corner where they have lost nearly all of the economic leverage they used to have with Oil and Gas. Finland and Sweden are joining NATO. If they pull back with anything less than a victory they will be humiliated to a fatal degree. They will lose all power and authority as a serious state. They can't afford to lose this war. They will keep sending men and material, since they are now being armed by N. Korea and by proxy probably China indefinitely until their own people rise up against the regime to stop the war (which doesnt seem like it will ever happen since Russia's propaganda machine is so strong) or until Kyiv folds, and those are the good outcomes because there's the obvious Nuclear Option still sitting on the table that as much we don't want it to be real is still a real possibility if Putin gets desperate enough. So that being said. How does Ukraine actually win this war? They don't have enough men to kick out Russia completely, not if Putin is willing to sacrifice every man and boy in Russia to keep the war going, and Russia isn't going to withdraw with anything less than a bullshit treaty that massively favors them. So how do they win? This looks to me like a stalemate that doesn't have an end. Is that a good outcome for Ukraine? For any of us? If there are no diplomatic solutions to be had here, because Putin can't be trusted to negotiate in good faith, (which I agree with, he cant be trusted) then the only solution is a complete military victory one way or another, and right now it doesn't seem like either side is capable of actually achieving that. So what the hell are we supposed to do? Just let the war go on forever? Russia can not only afford to lose this war, but they absolutely have to lose it. Putin is the one who can't afford to lose it. Putin is not Russia, but he successfully lied to people so that they think Russia is under an existential threat by Ukraine/NATO. The only existential threat Russia is facing is Putin. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22130 Posts
Russia could give up and pull back out of Ukraine. With hostilities ended I bet you that certain countries in the EU would gladly get back on cheap Russian gas and oil. Sanctions for common goods would be dropped as the EU wants the economic boost. You say Russia can't afford to back out, but backing out is the cheapest thing they can do. All the damage is already done and outside of a "Russia big strong" image that maybe somewhat? not really? still exists back in Russia there is no more humiliation to give. And since Russia lies about everything they can just claim victory at home. No one else is going to care they lie some more to their own people. As for Russia keeping this up indefinitely? I don't see it. Sure Russia has bodies, but bodies without weapons, supplies, equipment and vehicles are useless and those USSR stocks aren't lasting forever. Sure there isn't much progress being made atm but that is the thing about defensive lines. They hold, right until they don't. And then when they get breached and the defenders get outflanks things can go sideways real fast. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16121 Posts
On September 02 2023 21:44 Magic Powers wrote: Russia can not only afford to lose this war, but they absolutely have to lose it. Putin is the one who can't afford to lose it. Putin is not Russia, but he successfully lied to people so that they think Russia is under an existential threat by Ukraine/NATO. The only existential threat Russia is facing is Putin. Yes of course, obviously. But for all intents and purposes Putin IS Russia right now and for the forseeable future. To say anything else is to deny reality. Putin has absolute control over everything Russia does, and he will not withdraw from this conflict under any circumstances. So that brings us back to my original question. How does this end? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22130 Posts
On September 02 2023 21:54 Vindicare605 wrote: It ends when Russia is pushed back out of Ukraine.Yes of course, obviously. But for all intents and purposes Putin IS Russia right now and for the forseeable future. To say anything else is to deny reality. Putin has absolute control over everything Russia does, and he will not withdraw from this conflict under any circumstances. So that brings us back to my original question. How does this end? And the West will keep arming and supplying Ukraine until that happens. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16121 Posts
On September 02 2023 21:53 Gorsameth wrote: Russia is already humiliated, they already lost all power and authority. Heck China is actively 'stealing' the few countries they still have in their sphere of influence. Russia could give up and pull back out of Ukraine. With hostilities ended I bet you that certain countries in the EU would gladly get back on cheap Russian gas and oil. Sanctions for common goods would be dropped as the EU wants the economic boost. You say Russia can't afford to back out, but backing out is the cheapest thing they can do. All the damage is already done and outside of a "Russia big strong" image that maybe somewhat? not really? still exists back in Russia there is no more humiliation to give. And since Russia lies about everything they can just claim victory at home. No one else is going to care they lie some more to their own people. As for Russia keeping this up indefinitely? I don't see it. Sure Russia has bodies, but bodies without weapons, supplies, equipment and vehicles are useless and those USSR stocks aren't lasting forever. Sure there isn't much progress being made atm but that is the thing about defensive lines. They hold, right until they don't. And then when they get breached and the defenders get outflanks things can go sideways real fast. You're missing an important piece of the puzzle, and that's the regime's power and authority INSIDE Russia. You're right that they have already been massively humiliated on the international stage. But the same isn't necessarily true inside Russia. Inside Russia Putin's regime still has absolute authority, and Pirghozhin's coup demonstrated that even though there is clearly a LOT of opposition towards the war inside of the Russian military, that opposition isn't organized and isn't willing to go against Putin's regime, at least not yet. So we need to have that added to the equation here because those additional variables matter a lot. | ||
2Pacalypse-
Croatia9530 Posts
So while I agree that talking about any kind of compromise to end the conflict is still premature, especially while the Ukraine is on the offensive, eventually there might come a point where that will become the only option left. You can moralize all you want about who's right or wrong, but once the cold hard facts come knocking down on your door, you better answer. Especially the economic ones. And I repeat once again, I do believe that any kind of talks about eventual compromise is still years off, but I wouldn't dismiss any kind discussion about what that compromise might look like out of hand. | ||
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Vindicare605
United States16121 Posts
On September 02 2023 22:01 2Pacalypse- wrote: On topic of long-term prognosis, this video is pretty long, but it shows a bunch of concrete numbers of why the prospects of Russia's collapse is mostly wishful thinking and completely unrealistic anytime soon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T7Itt9mqtA So while I agree that talking about any kind of compromise to end the conflict is still premature, especially while the Ukraine is on the offensive, eventually there might come a point where that will become the only option left. You can moralize all you want about who's right or wrong, but once the cold hard facts come knocking down on your door, you better answer. Especially the economic ones. And I repeat once again, I do believe that any kind of talks about eventual compromise is still years off, but I wouldn't dismiss any kind discussion about what that compromise might look like out of hand. Thank you, I had this video in the back of my head when I was making my hypothetical argument. | ||
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AssyrianKing
Australia2116 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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KwarK
United States43673 Posts
On September 02 2023 22:46 AssyrianKing wrote: I don't think the Russian Federation is going to die, the Russian Empire fell, and then the Soviet Union fell, but each time it survived and came back Not convinced by this. The only way your claim could be falsified would be if there was somehow a giant chasm where Russia was and that's clearly not what is being meant. Obviously there is still land and people in the country that is Russia. But Russia <> the Soviet Union. The Russian Empire did not survive intact. The Russian Federation is a fraction of the Russian Empire at its height. | ||
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Excludos
Norway8237 Posts
On September 02 2023 22:01 2Pacalypse- wrote: On topic of long-term prognosis, this video is pretty long, but it shows a bunch of concrete numbers of why the prospects of Russia's collapse is mostly wishful thinking and completely unrealistic anytime soon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T7Itt9mqtA So while I agree that talking about any kind of compromise to end the conflict is still premature, especially while the Ukraine is on the offensive, eventually there might come a point where that will become the only option left. You can moralize all you want about who's right or wrong, but once the cold hard facts come knocking down on your door, you better answer. Especially the economic ones. And I repeat once again, I do believe that any kind of talks about eventual compromise is still years off, but I wouldn't dismiss any kind discussion about what that compromise might look like out of hand. I haven't watched the video yet exactly because it's a bit long. I'll see if I can make time for it later tonight. But I will say that in most collapses, it will look sustainable right up until the moment it isn't, and then everything cascades at once as people "lose faith" in the system simultaneously. And any small pebble can be the iceberg that tips the dominoes of this checkers board. With the added effect of Russia being very tight lipped about the actual conditions within its country, it's incredibly difficult to tell whether there is a collapse or not looming on the horizon. But I will agree we can't count on it in terms of how Ukraine is going to free itself | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6269 Posts
On September 03 2023 00:10 Excludos wrote: I haven't watched the video yet exactly because it's a bit long. I'll see if I can make time for it later tonight. But I will say that in most collapses, it will look sustainable right up until the moment it isn't, and then everything cascades at once as people "lose faith" in the system simultaneously. And any small pebble can be the iceberg that tips the dominoes of this checkers board. With the added effect of Russia being very tight lipped about the actual conditions within its country, it's incredibly difficult to tell whether there is a collapse or not looming on the horizon. But I will agree we can't count on it in terms of how Ukraine is going to free itself Exactly. Nobody expected Prigozhin to get very far but then he got quite close to Moscow with relatively few troops. Russians also did not seem to care much for Putin. That does not mean the system will collapse but Putin is clearly vulnerable. | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2726 Posts
"Russia can't afford to lose the war" is a statement that implies things cannot get much worse. From a military point of view it's unlikely that Ukraine has the man and willpower to throw out every single soldier from their territory. However they don't need to. Look at what they are trying to achieve right now. 1) Scale up long range drones in order to increase the cost of war for Russia. 2) Isolate Crimea (--> take Crimea --> establish 100 km AA bubble --> use air-ship missiles to establish "naval" dominance in the western part of the black sea --> blockade all Russian trade). Russia is obviously banking on Ukraine running out of the means and the will to take more ground. But *if* Ukraine cuts Crimea it's only a matter of time until they take it and then the situation gets drastically worse for Russia. I imagine they would continue the attrition war with artillery and their best assault units while continuing to scale up their long range drone capability. Is it worth continuing to fight a war over just Donbass for Russia in that situation? I think not. Russia path to "victory" is to paint the war as impossible to win, hopeless and wait for Ukraine to exhaust themselves. But that hinges 100 % on Ukraine giving up. But Ukraine's path to victory is in their own hands. Ever km they take has real benefit. Every town they take their strategic situation improves. I don't think it will be easy but I think they can and they will do it eventually and at that point I don't think Russia have any choice, it's either peace or collapse. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9284 Posts
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pmp10
3389 Posts
On September 02 2023 18:53 Magic Powers wrote: Kyiv HAS offered to talk many times in early 2022. Putin used every single one of these opportunities to attempt to gain tactical advantages on the battlefield. He didn't engage in any talks whatsoever. He is the one who's not interested in negotiations, he's interested only in total surrender by Kyiv. When are you finally going to accept this reality and stop pretending there's an alternative as long as Putin is in power? As soon as the west does. Zelensky had to drop his 'no talks with Putin' condition for a reason. In practice if Putin lacks credibility then west should resolve itself to a regime change in Russia, or in the very least ignore all diplomatic overtures. We will see how that works out. | ||
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sertas
Sweden890 Posts
Now they risk losing even what they had when they started, who knows where the war will be in a year if it continues | ||
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Excludos
Norway8237 Posts
On September 03 2023 04:07 pmp10 wrote: As soon as the west does. Zelensky had to drop his 'no talks with Putin' condition for a reason. In practice if Putin lacks credibility then west should resolve itself to a regime change in Russia, or in the very least ignore all diplomatic overtures. We will see how that works out. Zelensky has never had a "no talks with Putin" condition. In fact, he has repeatedly claimed since day 1 that there is only one acceptable deal, and that is the full return of Ukraine territory. His words have always been "A deal won't happen with Putin", because Putin isn't willing to meet these demands, or any diplomatic efforts at all, not because Zelensky refuses to deal with him. The west does not control this war, and any attempt at continuing that false narrative is done in blatantly bad faith. This war is between Ukraine and Russia. The west is helping Ukraine, but they do not control them, or have any say in whether Ukraine and Russia meets at the table. | ||
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