EPTIn simple terms: He's kind of the Alex Jones of Russia.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 531
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Magic Powers
Austria3859 Posts
In simple terms: He's kind of the Alex Jones of Russia. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On July 26 2023 06:02 sertas wrote: Thoughts on this then? or tldr : "The attack on the Odessa Transfiguration Cathedral ( 46°28'59.09"N / 30°43'52.94"E) on July 23rd was most likely performed by a Kaliber cruise missile with a ~450 kilogram warhead" Didn't have time for this before, but I'll try to run down this video now: At the first couple of minutes he just goes on about which sources should be considered "reliable" and which aren't. Actually it kinda goes along with all discussion happening right now in this thread. 1. At 3:17 he claims that the shrapnel on the second photo is from the Russian attack in Nikolayev last year, however: 1) the only debunking that he does is that Ukrainian source posted this as such. He isn't even trying to dig into how AA missile warhead is different from cruise missile warhead. Which is like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous-rod_warhead 2) Then about UA article he shows at 3:17 about attack on Nikolayev. Note the date at the top right, "29 Серпня 2022", which is "29th August 2022" in Ukrainian. Then lets check some other UA sources from that day, and we see that... https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/rf-ustroila-massirovannyy-udar-nikolaevu-1661853574.html https://hromadske.radio/ru/news/2022/08/30/vsu-udalos-unychtozhyt-odnu-yz-ustanovok-s-300-yz-kotor-kh-rossyiane-b-iut-po-nykolaevu-ok-yuh https://vesti.ua/nikolaev/rossiyane-obstrelyali-nikolaev-16-raketami-s-300-2-cheloveka-pogibli Ukrainians themselves were claiming that these were indeed S-300 missiles. So the guy basically confirmed the statement he was trying to debunk. 2. At 4:26 he quotes leaked documents (which a lot of people here claimed to be false, but w/e), as a proof of UA not having neither S-300 nor Buk missiles anymore, so UA doesn't use them anymore. 1) However there is a Lancet drone strike dated 22 May 2023 https://t.me/voenacher/45104 and it's clearly not a winter or early spring at the photo, and in summer 2022 Russia only tested Lancet, so the video checks out to be fresh, from May 2023, and UA is still using S-300 in combat. 2) Not a fact, but fair assumption - Odessa was protected by a grain deal, so there was no need to use advanced NATO AA there, it wasn't attacked for months before that. NATO AA was spotted in Kiev https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html Russian border with Bryansk region https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russian-su-34-su-35-fighters-shot-down-over-bryansk-were-ukraines-patriot-missiles-behind-the-kill/ Dniepr frontline https://t.me/boris_rozhin/93744 https://t.me/boris_rozhin/88367 So i doubt they could spare the few NATO AA batteries they have, while required to protect Kiev and key industrial areas from drones, cruise and ballistic missiles as well as frontline troops from RU JDAM equivalents, on a rear area protected for months by a political agreement. 3. Argument at 5:50 about "anti-aircraft missile" and "surface-to-air" missile is silly. 1) First of all, in Russian there is a similar term to SAM - ракета "земля-воздух" (missile "surface-air"), though "зенитная ракета" (which is a synonym basically) is wider used, I'll agree on that; 2) second "anti-aircraft missile" is used aplenty in English; 3) third, not all posters are native English speakers or even if they are, not all familiar with correct military term; 4) and fourth, his arguments again consist of basically: "these are bad sources" instead of factual evidence. 4. About places to put SAM launchers 1) first of all, most obvious places to put them is most likely where they wouldn't be to not get hit by subsequent strikes. But that's an assumption. 2) What is a fact is that he ignored a huge territory to the south of the city which gives a good line-of-sight to the sea, there are plenty of space to hide launchers (small villagers, groves, etc.) 5. At 8:00 he talks about SAM falling back at its firing position, however he completely ignores there and further the cases where SAM fails later, or initially locks at target and then loses it, and falls somewhere on the ground. Like this https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/15779 https://t.me/boris_rozhin/67492 Further he goes on by the assumptions he made (about SAM type, their position, Western tech superiority etc.) so I won't be going over that since they come from the statements I've disagreed previously. But I would like to adress another 3 points: 6. At 9:56 he says that the damage is too big for 22 kg warhead, and it's true. However Buk has 70 kg warhead and weights 700 kgs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system#9М38_and_9М38M1_missile And S-300 (PM/PMU being most common for Ukraine) has 150 kg warhead and weights 1800 kgs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system#Missiles However this was completely glossed over by the claim that "there are no such missiles any longer". 7. At 14:17 he claims that Odessa Thermal power plant 2 in Teplodar was a target. However I find it unlikely, considering that: 1) Russia after the termination of a grain deal was extensively bombarding port infrastructure, initially in Odessa, later in Izmail and Reni. 2) In past months there were no attempts to attack energy infrastructure like it was last year in autumn and winter. So why would there be one missile that fly exaclty there, exept that it would be convinient for the author of the video to prove his theory? 8. And last, but not the least, 17:10, the extent of the damage. There is only one brief picture from Iraq to prove his point that it's kinda similar (with no top view or wide picture). However if we look at some damage to the builings from wider anlgle dealt by Kalibrs and Iskanders (both having 450-500 kg warheads) https://ukranews.com/news/843000-minoborony-rf-pokazalo-udar-po-trts-retrovil-v-kieve-kotoryj-nazvali-krupnoj-bazoj-boepripasov https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Винница#/media/Файл:Робоча_поїздка_заступника_керівника_Офісу_Президента_до_Вінниці_02.jpg it is much bigger that this https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/world-news/2023/07/24/TELEMMGLPICT000343731616_16901963612520_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqwwjAwp6el8GhAyRzxG67NgJcDTaHjfQbO_LWQKM5BEQ.jpeg?imwidth=1280 I'm not even starting on initial Kh-22 claims. My personal take, in short, is that it was Buk or S-300 missile, flying from a position from the south to intercept Kalibr or Onyx cruise missile coming on Odessa port to the north of the cathedral, failing to track or being too late to hit an intended target and falling on the said cathedral, which I base on 1) Extent of the damage; 2) Tracks of shrapnel inside the cathedral; 3) Russian intended target during the time of the strike; 4) Trajectory of the hit | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
There are loyalists to Kremlin like Kadyrov (who is also regularly pushing his own agenda as the leader of islamic people in former CIS and beyond though) or aforementioned Solovyov. You have remnants of Prigozhins media empire, who is still unclear, if they are still heroes of Motherland or traitors of it, You have Girkin (awaiting trial atm), Morozov, Grubnik and other remnants of Dobass militia who did still believe in Novorossiya since 2014 and actively shit on Putin for abandoning them back in 2014 and corrupting Russia into failed state now. You have open Nazis like DSHRG Rusich. You have mild Russian nationalists like Norin. You have communists like Interbrigades 2022. You have simple boots on the ground like Karkusha-Z, or deceased Misha on Donbass or Arni Firefighter with their own opinions on the matter. They are all supposed to be, by the general presumption of this thread, a single mass flocking behind Putin, but they are very different, even though all of them are strongly anti-Ukraine at the moment. Some of them even took a toll for it from Kremlin (like Girkin being under arrest). | ||
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
Like you said, they all support the war.. The only distinction is wether they support putin or not. I suppose those who don't support putin is bc they feel he didn't go hard enough ? If i wanted more information on Karkusha-Z, should i search on telegram ? Is it this one + Show Spoiler + ? To be clear to Ardias, i think you're probably the most honest russian poster in this thread and i find your posts always very informative, thank you for that | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5536 Posts
On August 11 2023 04:27 Erasme wrote: Are you not just describing different shades of black ? Like you said, they all support the war.. The only distinction is wether they support putin or not. I suppose those who don't support putin is bc they feel he didn't go hard enough ? If i wanted more information on Karkusha-Z, should i search on telegram ? Not only that. They all peddle Kremlin's nonsensical lies. It's always funny to see Russians go "I don't even watch TV, I get my information from Telegram" and then proceed to recite Kremlin talking points verbatim. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Dan HH
Romania9112 Posts
Edit: I don't necessarily mean here, anywhere on the internet in general | ||
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KobraKay
Portugal4231 Posts
But someone that uses "western media" expression the same way you guys use "russian media" explain to me what the western media is? Do you want to say US media? Because the notion that the "west" news outlets are some sort of collectivity or group bound by the same policies/restrictions is so foreign to me that I cannot really understand how do people see it as a fact, unless they are really talking about US media and all the people/posts that rely on that. Maybe that is just it. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On August 11 2023 04:27 Erasme wrote: Are you not just describing different shades of black ? Like you said, they all support the war.. The only distinction is wether they support putin or not. I suppose those who don't support putin is bc they feel he didn't go hard enough ? If i wanted more information on Karkusha-Z, should i search on telegram ? Is it this one + Show Spoiler + ? To be clear to Ardias, i think you're probably the most honest russian poster in this thread and i find your posts always very informative, thank you for that On Karkusha-Z, you are correct. He is former Wagner contractor in Africa, now he is a drone operator in 200th Arctic brigade (with "Karkusha" being reference to a crow in a popular Russian kids TV show). On the other matters - I deliberately pointed out pro-war channels specifically, to show that there is vast difference of opinions even on seemingly the same side (up to putting those in disagreement to prison). As of "going not hard enough" - it differs. Prigozhin before the mutiny claimed the war unnecessary and the doing of oligarchs in Russia. Strelkov wished for total mobilization and wiping out Ukraine totally. Morozov (aka "Murz") was pushing hard on LDPR, and then on Russian army corruption and unwillingness of Kremlin to enter in 2014. Some people, like deceased Vladlen Tatarsky (who is actually from Donetsk, his real name is Maxim Fomin) were actively pushing for peace and understanding with Ukraine back in 2018-2020, and thus got ton of shit from the radical part of the LDPR militia. As I say, there are a lot of different groups even in pro-war faction. Even if they are appear the same for the Western observer. And thanks for the compliments, I like to have civil and deep discussions even if the conflincting opinions are very strong, which is often the case here. Though it takes a lot of time and effort (these three posts took me around two hours, that's why I'm rarely posting here), and I understand why a lot of people do not keep up with that. On August 11 2023 04:42 JimmiC wrote: I get there are many voices but are they not all bound by rules on what opinions they can have in regards to the war as well as about Putin? Like here there is a literal “f*ck Trudeau” cottage industry, they sell hats, shirts, bumper stickers, mud flaps and so on. There is voices that suggest we should not give aid, or there is lots of Nazis in Ukraine and Russia is the last stronghold of macho men and so on. None of these people are at threat of government persecution. The main news sources do not have those (like TV news or the CBC) but that is not because they can not it is me cause there are rules in Canada about news being required to have proof. The US does not have those which is why you can Fox and more so newsmax but even CNN with all the editorializing. But even there you have basically a pro democrat station and a pro republican station. What we are saying is there is no impartial Russian news source because if they even criticize Putin or his choices let alone the war the consequences are dire. It is not the number of sources or the different angles that they come at that matters, it is that the message NEEDs to be what the government wants or else. We have rules on the fairness of media, which is true of most western democracies and then the US attempts to accomplish this by having competition and profit create a market for all opinions (with some pretty major drawbacks) it is not remotely the same as what you experience. Girkin, Morozov, Grubnik, Montyan, Mangushev (deceased in conflict with Wagner), Gubarev etc. - there were a lot of bloggers (I'm posting the most renowned, but there are more) did openly shit on Putin, some of them did have concequences (like Girkin), others didn't. It could be the case that they are on the frontline, but a lot of them don't, and even those that are often get off there to get new drones, comms, optics etc. If FSB wanted them dead - they would be dead. But they don't. Not yet at least, even though they were telling the same things for years before the war. If you are interested, you could go through some of these channels, though it's hard to find necessary posts without knowing Russian: https://t.me/strelkovii - Girkin https://t.me/wehearfromyanina - Morozov https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia - Grubnik https://t.me/bulbe_de_trones - Tereschuk, Russian nationalist from Belarus (I actually had few chats with him some years back in one of the military VK groups). As for the competition of the media - to be fair, nobody was banning Dozhd, Novaya gazeta, Meduza etc. before the war either. So the alternative opinion did exist, though it had issues going on the TV screen, that's true. It's after the war, when everyone took some kind of side, they were blocked out. These ones were pro-Western, and most of them had been finded from different kinds of Western fund, so in confrontation with global West it's understandable they would be restricted. Western countries did the same to Sputnik and RT, after all. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5536 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On August 11 2023 05:10 Dan HH wrote: @Ardias Semi-related to the current topic, I'm curious, did you ever stop yourself from posting something you had typed out (or thought of posting) because it might be interpreted as "denigrating the armed forces" and potentially get you in trouble? Edit: I don't necessarily mean here, anywhere on the internet in general No, though I generally don't have a habit to throw offensive language in internet dialoge (well, I could go on a wild rant IRL sometimes, but that's another story), so I've never considered myself in some kind of danger of being persecuted for (you saw above what kind of posts I generally do, if I have time). After all, Putin encouraged fair critique of the Armed Forces after mobilization, hue  Though on Russian forums where I post I often have a reputation of pro-Western/pro-Ukrainian, similarly as I viewed here as pro-Russian, and had myself warned/banned/had my posts removed a few times, as potentially violating the current laws about discrediting an Army. Hard to have some middle-ground during the war, after all. On August 11 2023 05:16 KobraKay wrote: I wont pretend to know what the information/media state is in Russia so cannot comment on that. But someone that uses "western media" expression the same way you guys use "russian media" explain to me what the western media is? Do you want to say US media? Because the notion that the "west" news outlets are some sort of collectivity or group bound by the same policies/restrictions is so foreign to me that I cannot really understand how do people see it as a fact, unless they are really talking about US media and all the people/posts that rely on that. Maybe that is just it. Well, the "big 7" (I'll probably use that term) I would consider The Guardian, Reuters, WP, Bloomberg, BBC, NYTimes and CNN. At least these are coming on top when I'm looking for some kind of Western perspective (English-based though, ofc) in Google. I know Fox and Newsweek (I know I might mix TV channels with Internet media, but give me some rope in that) are considered non-mainstream ones. I also know that Daylimail and the Sun (if we talk about UK) are often considered yellow press, but they generally post with the same attitude as big 7 listed above. I do not pretend to be omnicient, and my knowledge of foreign language besides English is limited to readable and somewhat understandable Ukrainian, somewhat readable Polish and barely readable German, so I'm not on top of opinions going around there. In Germany AFAIK the Spiegel is generally more in line with big 7 I've listed above and DW is often seen as yellow press and they have a reputation of posting some negative stuff about UA and the West in this conflict. On August 11 2023 05:25 maybenexttime wrote: Dozhd, Novaya Gazeta or Meduza, etc. are not pro-Western. They pro-Russian. They just happen to have a different view of what Russia should be, which is at odds with the fascist mainstream. Weren't you implying for a while that most of the Russians are supportive of their government and therefore fascists as well? That kinda makes your current point moot. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5536 Posts
On August 11 2023 05:34 Ardias wrote: Weren't you implying for a while that most of the Russians are supportive of their government and therefore fascists as well? That kinda makes your current point moot. How does it make it moot? | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On August 11 2023 05:36 JimmiC wrote: I’ll spend some time tonight. Correct if I’m wrong but are their complaints not all that Russia should be doing more not that they should not be in the war? Here no matter the conflict you can always read about why we should not be involved. It is generally the stronger sentiment, and grows as there are more wounded and KIA. We have, in my lifetime, not had very large numbers of those but even the cost of peacekeeping and the soldiers mental health is reason enough for many. Part of why I am disbelief that there is not a strong anti war sentiment being suppressed is it makes no sense to have people who have lost so many not be against it, let alone the economic impact. If you look at the US there is people who blame it for minor gas price changes or what have you and sentiment changes and is reported on. There is just no way a democratically elected leader who got a country into a war which is at best a hugely expensive stalemate losing and injuring huge numbers of their own and would be hugely popular. 90%+ popularity does not happen in the good times when it’s real. If we take the "radical Novorussians" part - their main complaint is that 1) Russia didn't go in full force to support the rebellion back in 2014, which could bring the swift end to the conflict back then: 2) Arranged and signed Minsk agreements, which a lot of LDPR militia considered stab in the back, fearing that they would be pushed back in Ukraine: 3) Treated Ukraine as partner with different economic deals etc. in 2015-2021 period helping to build their economy up, while at the same time... 4) ... stagnating the Russian Army, not preparing it for actual war, while Ukraine did do just that. TLDR they aren't happy with the current stalemate and WW1-style trench warfare, and would like the situation to be resolved swiftly. Just with black-blue-red banner over Slavyansk. If we take more mild. but still nationalistic Russians - a lot of them regret that war has started, and certainly not happy with how it's happening. Not happy with the government including. But in the war you either for or against, and in the question if they should be with Russians or with Ukrainians in the matter, most of those, of course, choose the former. Socialists/internationalists/communists are in a more difficult spot in that regard. It depends generally who they view as more nationalistic, Russian government or Ukrainian. Individualists (and I'll remind you, a lot of Russians are quite collectivists by mindset) are, of course, mostly anti-war, some for moral reasons, some - because they lose benefits of globalizations, and some fear they could be drafted. Differs from person to person. If Russians by majority are fascists, how come media with Western views is pro-Russian? For that either majority of Russians should be democratic or the said media should be with fascist views. Which one is that? | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria3859 Posts
I did some more digging and it looks like the OTR-21 Tochka has mid flight maneuverability to avoid AA. This means even if several people somehow had the impressive ability to determine its final flight path, that would lead to no better conclusion. The claim that it was a false flag operation sounds increasingly absurd in the face of the facts. Russia has shelled many apartment blocks with no regard for human life. They've tortured and massacred civilians in Bucha and other cities, which became known around a week before the Kramatorsk missile strike. Ukraine never needed a false flag operation of this sort to gather sympathy. "The Scarab-B (also known as the Tochka-U), with an extended range of 120 km, was developed in the mid-1980s and began replacing the A variant in 1989. While the B variant employs inertial guidance for targeting, it also utilizes GPS and radar—or optical terminal correlation system—to increase its accuracy to 95 m CEP. Like the Scarab-A, the Scarab-B is also capable of being tipped with conventional and nuclear payloads, however, increased in-flight maneuverability allows the B version to better avoid missile defenses. All versions use a road-mobile Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL) which makes them highly mobile and able to quickly redeploy after launch. The Scarab is gradually being phased out by the more capable Iskander SRBM, which has a longer range, improved accuracy, and can carry multiple warheads. [3]" https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/todays-missile-threat/russia/ss-21-mod-2/ | ||
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a_ch
Russian Federation240 Posts
On August 11 2023 03:30 Erasme wrote: idk who Meiershaimer is, from a small google search he seems to be saying that this war is the west's fault. Which proves my earlier point that western medias arent a monolith? But why would you bring him up i don't get it ? To answer your question, yeah some indian youtuber sitting in india just listening to russia today isn't the best source. I guess that he goes in your direction. Also once again, unlike in russia, western journalists arent facing prison if they don't follow the party lign. Is that understood or do you just plug your ears and cover your eyes ? All i can read about gonzalo lira is that he went into kharkov and started spouting kremlin talking points justifying the atrocities of russia and blaming it on ukraine. from www.thedailybeast.com Obviously a couple websites (such as the quebec communist party lol) are trying to make a hero out of him, but lets be honest, any "red pill coach" is either fondamently stupid or a crook. Please do you have any sources that isn't rotten to the core or an indian youtuber ? I mean come on buddy, can't you use your eyes and see how dumb you're looking when defending such an idiot ? Also calling him a "journalist" just made me laugh thank you Meiersheimer is a well-known political scientist and a tenured professor in Chicago, who holds a strong anti-China position. In regards to Lira - was he paid by Moscow? - I don't know him well; since he was creating pro-Russian content in Ukraine, I'd say that probability is high. But also I've seen the video which is believed to be the reason of his persecution, and didn't find anything criminal there. In terms of moral qualities - he is a saint compared to the most well-known ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon who've made a fortune by selling placebo stuff to cancer patients. | ||
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TheLordofAwesome
Korea (South)2616 Posts
On August 10 2023 11:47 KwarK wrote: South Korea has technically only been participating in circle trades. No SK shells are in Ukraine. Shells are fungible though, restocking US armouries so the US can give theirs to Ukraine is technically not sending them to Ukraine but amounts to the same. Maintaining wartime production capabilities during peacetime is hard because you need a production line capable of scaling up 100x overnight but nobody wants to pay for it. People get mad at the waste of money when the military makes giant idle tank storage areas. This is why it’s so important to have a strong military export industry. You can do something with all that surplus production and then if you ever go to war you can cancel all orders because you control the capacity. And why it’s so dangerous to rely on military imports, if you go to war and suddenly need 100x the usual quantity you’re entirely at the whims of your supplier. The US is the leader in global arms exports. The US is, in fact, extremely limited in its ability to produce shells today. In March of this year, (over one year after the war started!) the US was making 14,000 shells a month. The Pentagon is aiming to hit a rate of 24,000 shells / month by the end of the year, and 85,000 a month in five years. Source: www.defensenews.com How low Is this compared to the recent past? Well, in 1995, US artillery shell production was capable of 867,000 shells a month! Source: https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-95-89.pdf Page 7 of the pdf (page 5 in the original document numbering) says “867,000 artillery projectiles a month during three 8 hour shifts each day for 5 days a week.” Note that this is after closing 4 out of 9 plants, so after the rate of production had been cut roughly by a quarter to a third. The US simply cannot come anywhere close to manufacturing munitions in such quantities today. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5536 Posts
On August 11 2023 06:00 Ardias wrote: If Russians by majority are fascists, how come media with Western views is pro-Russian? For that either majority of Russians should be democratic or the said media should be with fascist views. Which one is that? The two are unrelated. By pro-Russian I mean having Russia's best interest in mind. They have a different view on what's best for the country. The Kremlin is driving Russia of a cliff. People opposing the Kremlin's imperialism and colonialism are trying to save the country. It's really not that hard to grasp. | ||
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