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On June 24 2023 22:16 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2023 21:20 0x64 wrote:
This has a bit of a game of throne feeling.
Navalny was Ned stark.
Ukraine is Dorne. (hmm can't think of a better one, Dorne was not really in war, but there was that duel with the mountain...)
Wagner is the Second sons...
Maybe there are even better parallels. It’s discount Caesar. 1. Commander becomes massively rich and popular waging an illegal war with his personal army loyal to him. 2. State begins to fear him and orders him to hand his army over to their command. 3. State orders him home to face charges. 4. Commander marches on the state.
All that's left is someone stabbing him in the back, and name a salad after him
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United States43964 Posts
Belarus is the interesting question here. Neither Putin nor Prig will allow it to break away, both are invested in the recreation of the Soviet Union and both would defend it with the full Russian army, and probably nukes if they had to, if it were invaded. But if Luka falls this week during the chaos it could get a chance to break away. There is a very brief window in which he could be deposed without an immediate Russian response.
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Chechens are 15 minutes from Rostov. So something is probably about to happen but I don't think anyone is comfortable with predictions right now.
Also I would not want to be a Russian civilian in a city attacked by Chechens and defended by Wagner...
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Nothing like Caesar really, Caesar was previously consul and was a key part of running the state under the Triumvirate and popular with the masses, I don't think either of these apply.
Caesar had a decent amount of support in the senate even if the majority/elite were against him. Caesar had a fixed governorship term length, he was under legal threat as soon as that ended. I see no evidence Prigozhin was under any threat until he already started down this path.
Caesar was also one of the greatest military commanders in history which I think its safe to say does no apply to Prigozhin who couldn't even capture one city.
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United States43964 Posts
On June 24 2023 22:32 Zaros wrote:
Nothing like Caesar really, Caesar was previously consul and was a key part of running the state under the Triumvirate and popular with the masses, I don't think either of these apply.
Caesar had a decent amount of support in the senate even if the majority/elite were against him. Caesar had a fixed governorship term length, he was under legal threat as soon as that ended. I see no evidence Prigozhin was under any threat until he already started down this path.
Caesar was also one of the greatest military commanders in history which I think its safe to say does no apply to Prigozhin who couldn't even capture one city.
Wagner did take Bakhmut.
Also if Prig wins his reputation as one of the greatest military commander/restauranteurs will be solid.
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On June 24 2023 22:35 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2023 22:32 Zaros wrote:
Nothing like Caesar really, Caesar was previously consul and was a key part of running the state under the Triumvirate and popular with the masses, I don't think either of these apply.
Caesar had a decent amount of support in the senate even if the majority/elite were against him. Caesar had a fixed governorship term length, he was under legal threat as soon as that ended. I see no evidence Prigozhin was under any threat until he already started down this path.
Caesar was also one of the greatest military commanders in history which I think its safe to say does no apply to Prigozhin who couldn't even capture one city. Wagner did take Bakhmut. Also if Prig wins his reputation as one of the greatest military commander/restauranteurs will be solid.
I know they claimed they captured it and then cleared out but I don't believe Ukraine ever fully left the city and considering they are fighting in and around it again so quickly I think that supports the fact they didn't leave. So while the Russians controlled most of the city I wouldn't say they took it, its an ongoing battle.
Re the Coup making him a great military commander, I think that depends if he is relying on actual battles or if this is more a political plan that with the threat of force enables him to take over. If it is more political then I don't think that deserves enough military credit to make him one of the greatest.
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On June 24 2023 22:32 Zaros wrote:
Nothing like Caesar really, Caesar was previously consul and was a key part of running the state under the Triumvirate and popular with the masses, I don't think either of these apply.
Caesar had a decent amount of support in the senate even if the majority/elite were against him. Caesar had a fixed governorship term length, he was under legal threat as soon as that ended. I see no evidence Prigozhin was under any threat until he already started down this path.
Caesar was also one of the greatest military commanders in history which I think its safe to say does no apply to Prigozhin who couldn't even capture one city.
Prigozhin has been a member of Putin's circle of oligarchs for years and he's quite popular with the people. Prigozhin's PMC was illegal according to the Russian law. It's possible Putin was planning to put him in jail, using this as a pretext.
Also, discount Caesar =/= Caesar.
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[QUOTE]On June 24 2023 19:44 ZeroByte13 wrote:
[QUOTE]On June 24 2023 19:39 Ardias wrote:
It should have been crushed fast and brutal (or maybe a fast decisive strike to take out Wagner leadership) for it to look like "don't even try this, we control the situation".
Now it looks more like government / RAF doesn't have full control of what is going on.[/QUOTE]
This is my view as well. This situation not being entirely crushed within 12 hours is absolutely gigantic on its own
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United States43964 Posts
On June 24 2023 22:41 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2023 22:35 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2023 22:32 Zaros wrote:
Nothing like Caesar really, Caesar was previously consul and was a key part of running the state under the Triumvirate and popular with the masses, I don't think either of these apply.
Caesar had a decent amount of support in the senate even if the majority/elite were against him. Caesar had a fixed governorship term length, he was under legal threat as soon as that ended. I see no evidence Prigozhin was under any threat until he already started down this path.
Caesar was also one of the greatest military commanders in history which I think its safe to say does no apply to Prigozhin who couldn't even capture one city. Wagner did take Bakhmut. Also if Prig wins his reputation as one of the greatest military commander/restauranteurs will be solid. I know they claimed they captured it and then cleared out but I don't believe Ukraine ever fully left the city and considering they are fighting in and around it again so quickly I think that supports the fact they didn't leave. So while the Russians controlled most of the city I wouldn't say they took it, its an ongoing battle. Re the Coup making him a great military commander, I think that depends if he is relying on actual battles or if this is more a political plan that with the threat of force enables him to take over. If it is more political then I don't think that deserves enough military credit to make him one of the greatest.
Everyone, including the Ukrainian military, agree Bakhmut was taken. Street by street the Ukrainians retreated until eventually there were no streets remaining. This isn’t denied by anyone except you. You’re just out of the loop on this, Bakhmut was definitely taken.
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Getting into semantics about what is and isn't the city is pointless. Unless someone wants to dig into what the registered city limits are and put that on a map it's not going to be answered. Effectively Wagner pushed Ukraine out of the city, although it was never secured as the fighting over the city never stopped. Ukraine is now retaking the city.
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Or rather what remains of it. :<
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On June 24 2023 22:47 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2023 22:41 Zaros wrote:On June 24 2023 22:35 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2023 22:32 Zaros wrote:
Nothing like Caesar really, Caesar was previously consul and was a key part of running the state under the Triumvirate and popular with the masses, I don't think either of these apply.
Caesar had a decent amount of support in the senate even if the majority/elite were against him. Caesar had a fixed governorship term length, he was under legal threat as soon as that ended. I see no evidence Prigozhin was under any threat until he already started down this path.
Caesar was also one of the greatest military commanders in history which I think its safe to say does no apply to Prigozhin who couldn't even capture one city. Wagner did take Bakhmut. Also if Prig wins his reputation as one of the greatest military commander/restauranteurs will be solid. I know they claimed they captured it and then cleared out but I don't believe Ukraine ever fully left the city and considering they are fighting in and around it again so quickly I think that supports the fact they didn't leave. So while the Russians controlled most of the city I wouldn't say they took it, its an ongoing battle. Re the Coup making him a great military commander, I think that depends if he is relying on actual battles or if this is more a political plan that with the threat of force enables him to take over. If it is more political then I don't think that deserves enough military credit to make him one of the greatest. Everyone, including the Ukrainian military, agree Bakhmut was taken. Street by street the Ukrainians retreated until eventually there were no streets remaining. This isn’t denied by anyone except you. You’re just out of the loop on this, Bakhmut was definitely taken.
I'm happy to admit I may be out of the loop, can you provide a link where Ukraine has admitted that?
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I'm a little behind compared to many of you, wasn't Prigozhin saying at the start that Russia needed to mobilise literally everyone and go scorched earth, now he is saying the war was a lie to begin with?
Have I got that right?
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On June 24 2023 23:00 DropBear wrote:
I'm a little behind compared to many of you, wasn't Prigozhin saying at the start that Russia needed to mobilise literally everyone and go scorched earth, now he is saying the war was a lie to begin with?
Have I got that right?
Yep! And even more by saying it was a lie since 2014, all those made up reasons was just a pile of crap
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On June 24 2023 23:00 DropBear wrote:
I'm a little behind compared to many of you, wasn't Prigozhin saying at the start that Russia needed to mobilise literally everyone and go scorched earth, now he is saying the war was a lie to begin with?
Have I got that right?
Maybe you are thinking of Igor Girkin/Strelkov?
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On June 24 2023 22:53 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2023 22:47 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2023 22:41 Zaros wrote:On June 24 2023 22:35 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2023 22:32 Zaros wrote:
Nothing like Caesar really, Caesar was previously consul and was a key part of running the state under the Triumvirate and popular with the masses, I don't think either of these apply.
Caesar had a decent amount of support in the senate even if the majority/elite were against him. Caesar had a fixed governorship term length, he was under legal threat as soon as that ended. I see no evidence Prigozhin was under any threat until he already started down this path.
Caesar was also one of the greatest military commanders in history which I think its safe to say does no apply to Prigozhin who couldn't even capture one city. Wagner did take Bakhmut. Also if Prig wins his reputation as one of the greatest military commander/restauranteurs will be solid. I know they claimed they captured it and then cleared out but I don't believe Ukraine ever fully left the city and considering they are fighting in and around it again so quickly I think that supports the fact they didn't leave. So while the Russians controlled most of the city I wouldn't say they took it, its an ongoing battle. Re the Coup making him a great military commander, I think that depends if he is relying on actual battles or if this is more a political plan that with the threat of force enables him to take over. If it is more political then I don't think that deserves enough military credit to make him one of the greatest. Everyone, including the Ukrainian military, agree Bakhmut was taken. Street by street the Ukrainians retreated until eventually there were no streets remaining. This isn’t denied by anyone except you. You’re just out of the loop on this, Bakhmut was definitely taken. I'm happy to admit I may be out of the loop, can you provide a link where Ukraine has admitted that?
Zelensky was somewhat vague about it.
https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-appears-to-confirm-ukraine-no-longer-controls-bakhmut-2023-5
Afaik other Ukrainian officials made varying comments ranging from confirmation to denial, but the official position from Kyiv has been unclear.
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United States43964 Posts
On June 24 2023 22:53 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2023 22:47 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2023 22:41 Zaros wrote:On June 24 2023 22:35 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2023 22:32 Zaros wrote:
Nothing like Caesar really, Caesar was previously consul and was a key part of running the state under the Triumvirate and popular with the masses, I don't think either of these apply.
Caesar had a decent amount of support in the senate even if the majority/elite were against him. Caesar had a fixed governorship term length, he was under legal threat as soon as that ended. I see no evidence Prigozhin was under any threat until he already started down this path.
Caesar was also one of the greatest military commanders in history which I think its safe to say does no apply to Prigozhin who couldn't even capture one city. Wagner did take Bakhmut. Also if Prig wins his reputation as one of the greatest military commander/restauranteurs will be solid. I know they claimed they captured it and then cleared out but I don't believe Ukraine ever fully left the city and considering they are fighting in and around it again so quickly I think that supports the fact they didn't leave. So while the Russians controlled most of the city I wouldn't say they took it, its an ongoing battle. Re the Coup making him a great military commander, I think that depends if he is relying on actual battles or if this is more a political plan that with the threat of force enables him to take over. If it is more political then I don't think that deserves enough military credit to make him one of the greatest. Everyone, including the Ukrainian military, agree Bakhmut was taken. Street by street the Ukrainians retreated until eventually there were no streets remaining. This isn’t denied by anyone except you. You’re just out of the loop on this, Bakhmut was definitely taken. I'm happy to admit I may be out of the loop, can you provide a link where Ukraine has admitted that?
https://apnews.com/article/bakhmut-russia-ukraine-wagner-prigozhin-da2fc05b818b3dcc39decd40b17d2d8b
There was still fighting around it on the flanks and there have been subsequent attempts to position for a counterattack but the front lines were beyond the city, the entire city was taken by Wagner.
You could frame it as the first battle for Bakhmut (where it started wholly under Ukrainian control) being a Russian victory whereas the ground work for the second battle of Bakhmut (which will start with the city wholly under Russian control) being laid.
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On June 24 2023 23:05 JimmiC wrote:
Is bringing Chechens into western Russia a good idea? I’m not super familiar with the politics there but I’m not the civilians there will see the Chechens as the “good guys”, it might make Wagner look better. One thing that seems true is Russian leadership does seem incompetent. Progressively worse decisions.
Exactly. Not only does it make Putin and the State look weak, but incredibly unpopular. I mean Chechens. Having to try and defend the State in WESTERN Russia. If there was a battle, I'd imagine civilians and others watching from the sidelines would only see one Russian side. Which would be Wagner.
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EPT
