EPTOn June 24 2023 18:28 Zaros wrote:
Perhaps this is far more well planned than we think?
Perhaps this is far more well planned than we think?
He's been building his image among the rank-and-file soldiers and undermining Shoygu for months.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 469
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maybenexttime
Poland5452 Posts
He's been building his image among the rank-and-file soldiers and undermining Shoygu for months. | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4692 Posts
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
"Wagner seizes military facilities in second city - BBC sources BBC News Russian sources are now saying that Wagner fighters have taken control of all military facilities in the city of Voronezh, a halfway point between Rostov-on-Don (where Wagner also says it's in charge) and the capital Moscow." | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria3709 Posts
Now he's chosen to gamble and of course the odds aren't in his favor. Chances are Putin will defeat him and hang him for treason. But it's not certain, because Prigozhin is attacking at the exact right time: when Russia's defenses are wide open and the military is unhappy with Putin's war. Either way this can lead to a great opportunity for Ukraine to liberate more territory. They must use this to their advantage, because - just like for Germany in WW2 - this has created a two-front scenario for Russia. Defensively Russia is extremely vulnerable, so I think Putin has to recall many of his troops. Putin's gameplan will be to stall the Wagner offensive until they can be defeated. This will require a lot of men and resources, and it'll be a strategic disaster for Putin's plans in Ukraine. | ||
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r00ty
Germany1037 Posts
Edit: I don't think Wagner will be marching on Moscow, but if Prighoschin gets his requested meeting with top brass Russian military, Putin is in trouble. | ||
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yoshi245
United States2969 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
My first assumption is that he felt like something was coming for him, and decided to act immediately. Wagner does have some support from general public, Prigozhin was building it up for past few years, but I feel these investments are yet to bear fruit, and what's happening now is a reaction, rather than action. But we will see how it's unfolds, people of power currently rallied up behind the government, so my current bet is that this coup will fall. Also I wouldn't throw hats up if I was Westerner/Ukrainian - Russian army in Ukraine currently isn't going anywhere and 20 days of current AFU offensive brought nothing besides couple of villages. However I would agree that situation is very unpredictable, and may turn either way in coming days. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11340 Posts
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ZeroByte13
744 Posts
Even if this coup will fails very soon, it means there's no Wagner in Ukraine anymore, who was responsible for a significant part of whatever success RAF has had in last 6-9 months. If it fails but over a few days instead, with heavy fighting, it cannot not affect soldiers morale. And then + the point above. Until it fails, logistics will be a big problem. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On June 24 2023 18:53 Simberto wrote: Hm, but if Wagner has taken control of Rostov on Dom and Voronezh, doesn't it become really, really hard for the Russian military to supply its troops in Ukraine? Just looking at a map, doesn't that mean that basically all of the Russian troops in Ukraine are now cut off from Russia proper? As far as I can tell, Prigozhin doesn't try to block the war effort and tries to appeal to soldiers on the front to stay away from this. At least he himself claims that all services, including military airfield in Rostov-on-Don are working in normal order, and he is after the heads of the military only. Also if coup will fail (or win) within few days, I doubt it will affect the war in any major way, since there are stockpiles of any needed stuff on the front. However if it would turn into a prolonged affair, then troubles will surely appear. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria3709 Posts
He also knew - just as well as anyone else - that, if Ukraine had the option of invading Russia, their chances of liberation would skyrocket, because Russia's defenses were weak the whole time. Well, Wagner can (demonstrably) invade Russia, and so this is not a sudden decision from Prigozhin. It's going far too smoothly for that, this offensive is not just being improvised out of thin air. He knew this was a likely scenario and he prepared for it. Putin ignored this risk and now he has to deal with it. I'm hoping for one of two possible scenarios. 1) Prigozhin plans to withdraw from the freshly occupied territories in Ukraine. He dethrones Putin and takes over Russia's military. Not the most likely scenario because we don't know his plans for the war. But it's possible. It would be the ideal case for Ukraine. The bad alternative to this scenario would be Prigozhin planning to hold on to all of the territory. This would be a disaster, because there's no doubt Prigozhin is far more capable militarily speaking than Putin. 2) Putin stalls Wagner and eventually defeats them. This will be a great opportunity for Ukraine. | ||
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Dav1oN
Ukraine3164 Posts
On June 24 2023 18:53 Simberto wrote: Hm, but if Wagner has taken control of Rostov on Dom and Voronezh, doesn't it become really, really hard for the Russian military to supply its troops in Ukraine? Just looking at a map, doesn't that mean that basically all of the Russian troops in Ukraine are now cut off from Russia proper? Exactly my thinking, this should have a cascade effect Just imagine you are one of average ru soldiers sitting in a dirt for months somewhere under constant threat and now w/o supply due to armed rebellion in your country. Surely there will be many of those. How exactly they are going to hold the ground having no stable way to supply own troops? The answer is simple - they don't | ||
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ZeroByte13
744 Posts
On June 24 2023 19:08 Ardias wrote: I can't imagine Prigozhin dethroning Putin who has been in power for 24 years and then everything staying as usual, no changes anywhere.Also if coup will fail (or win) within few days, I doubt it will affect the war in any major way. If this coup is successful - which is unlikely but I called other things "unlikely" before and was wrong - I can't see how this doesn't mean at least a few big changes. If it fails, there's no Wagner in Ukraine anymore unless all of its members will be forcibly "conscripted" into official RAF forces. | ||
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r00ty
Germany1037 Posts
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Neneu
Norway492 Posts
This isn't just battle-hardened and highly professional troops marching towards Moscow, their leadership also have strong experience of how to succeed with a coup. Edit: Also the number one selling point for Putin support is now gone; Stability | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2525 Posts
On June 24 2023 19:08 Ardias wrote: As far as I can tell, Prigozhin doesn't try to block the war effort and tries to appeal to soldiers on the front to stay away from this. At least he himself claims that all services, including military airfield in Rostov-on-Don are working in normal order, and he is after the heads of the military only. Also if coup will fail (or win) within few days, I doubt it will affect the war in any major way, since there are stockpiles of any needed stuff on the front. However if it would turn into a prolonged affair, then troubles will surely appear. Think Ru MoD is comfortable with sending supplies through Wagner right now on a pinky promise? | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On June 24 2023 19:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: Think Ru MoD is comfortable with sending supplies through Wagner right now on a pinky promise? No, but as I said, if it's over in few days, it doesn't matter much, there is a lot of ammo, food etc. in Ukraine already. Also, Belgorod and Crimea are still open. Plus, orders on necessary supplies are often made weeks in advance. If you remember "Valkyrie" film - "We do not interprete orders, sergeant. We pass them through". On June 24 2023 19:20 ZeroByte13 wrote: I can't imagine Prigozhin dethroning Putin who has been in power for 24 years and then everything staying as usual, no changes anywhere. If this coup is successful - which is unlikely but I called other things "unlikely" before and was wrong - I can't see how this doesn't mean at least a few big changes. If it fails, there's no Wagner in Ukraine anymore unless all of its members will be forcibly "conscripted" into official RAF forces. On the actual battlefield - I doubt it, unless Prigozhin wins and somehow decides to alter whole political course, but I strongly doubt in first, as well as in second, since his support base are pro-war people, who think that Russian MoD is fucked up, and Russian political leadership are tratiors or spineless cowards. So even if he wins, he would have to carry on the war in forseeable future. If (when) he loses - then leadership of Wagner gets decapitated and rank and file will be given a choice - prison or service in regular military. I think majority will choose the latter, especially considering that there is a discontent among Wagnerites about the situation (I asked couple of people around). A bunch of them strongly oppose Prigozhin's actions. | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5587 Posts
On June 24 2023 18:47 Ardias wrote: Also I wouldn't throw hats up if I was Westerner/Ukrainian - Russian army in Ukraine currently isn't going anywhere and 20 days of current AFU offensive brought nothing besides couple of villages. However I would agree that situation is very unpredictable, and may turn either way in coming days. This is a dangerous dose of copium, I'm afraid. There is absolutely no way having to fight 25000 more troops on a completely new front is nothing other than disaster. Complete disaster for the war effort. From a Ukrainian/Western perspective this is good news, but also dangerous I'd say since the Putin could become desperate. Instability and the possibility of lose nukes is also terrifying. | ||
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ZeroByte13
744 Posts
On June 24 2023 19:39 Ardias wrote: This is the least consequental scenario - and also the most probable, I guess - but even then it might change quite a bit.If (when) he loses - then leadership of Wagner gets decapitated and rank and file will be given a choice - prison or service in regular military. I think majority will choose the latter, especially considering that there is a discontent among Wagnerites about the situation (I asked couple of people around). A bunch of them strongly oppose Prigozhin's actions. Right now Russian government looks kinda weak and vulnerable - there's an armed coup in its territory and from what I can see in war monitor channels, there were no major strikes vs Wagner yet, only some skirmishes here and there. This does not increase troops morale anywhere and especially on frontlines, even if they have food/muntions, don't you think? I might be completely wrong, maybe when you're in a trench you don't think too much about anything but survival here and now. But a lot of people are not in trenches, and they might be affected by the news. It should have been crushed fast and brutal (or maybe a fast decisive strike to take out Wagner leadership) for it to look like "don't even try this, we control the situation". Now it looks more like government / RAF doesn't have full control of what is going on. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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