EPTIn any case prighozin can rightfully assume that he would have been in a worse position tomorrow than he was yesterday. And thus felt his hand was forced.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 467
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zatic
Zurich15359 Posts
In any case prighozin can rightfully assume that he would have been in a worse position tomorrow than he was yesterday. And thus felt his hand was forced. | ||
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ZeroByte13
780 Posts
But all 25k of his troops? They seemingly trust him to have a plan, and at least a somewhat good one. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Hildegard
Germany348 Posts
A coup, including capturing Putin, might have had a better chance. I highly doubt that Putin could side with Prigozhin and ignore or window-walk his generals and admirals. Am I wrong here? Edit: You have my sympathy, and I hope the best for your family. It's really strange. I want Ukraine to win fast and decisively, but I don't want their soldiers to die, except for those who committed horrible war crimes. Still, I'm against capital punishment. How do you deal with this? | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15727 Posts
When Shoigu (Top leader of Russian ministry of defense) and Gerasimov (Shoigu's second in command) commanded Wagner to fall under ministry of defense, Prigozhin flipped them off and nothing happened. Since Shoigu looked very weak when Wagner ignored the ministry of defense with zero repercussions, he responded by shooting a missile at Wagner and here we are. I think Prigozhin is rightly assuming he is way more popular than Shoigu and Gerasimov. Prigozhin is super clear he still supports Putin and is only eliminating Shoigu/Gerasimov because they have been deceiving Putin. Shoigu and Gerasimov can't let Wagner occupy Rostov's military facilities without essentially admitting they have no power over Wagner/Prigozhin. Putin can either kill Prigozhin or give in to his demands by arresting Gerasimov and Shoigu. I think Putin had a window where he could have commanded immediate air-strikes of Wagner's incursion into Rostov, killed Prigozhin quickly, and then seized Wagner in a show of might, but that time has passed. I honestly think he doesn't have a path in Ukraine without Prigozhin so he has to just give in to his demands. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15727 Posts
Putin will address the situation soon. Wowee. | ||
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RenSC2
United States1078 Posts
On June 24 2023 14:33 Hildegard wrote: Obviously, I'm no military expert. However, it seems to me that the Russian military is way too big of an organization to simply lose to Wagner. Submarines, the air force, forces in Siberia, and many other places. Units in control of the weapons of mass destruction. Additionally, the secret services and the police. A coup, including capturing Putin, might have had a better chance. I highly doubt that Putin could side with Prigozhin and ignore or window-walk his generals and admirals. Am I wrong here? Edit: You have my sympathy, and I hope the best for your family. It's really strange. I want Ukraine to win fast and decisively, but I don't want their soldiers to die, except for those who committed horrible war crimes. Still, I'm against capital punishment. How do you deal with this? Can't really use those submarines, air force, and nuclear weapons against Wagner while they're occupying Russian cities. Is Moscow going to bomb Moscow? I doubt it, but I guess it's possible. They have no problem declaring Ukranian cities as Russian and still reducing them to rubble. I believe they also have some anti-air capabilities at Wagner, so even if the Russian air force attacks them as they move between cities, they'll lose a lot of planes to do it. What happens now all depends on how threatened Putin feels. If he truly believes that Prigozhin will remain below him and just wants to replace Shoigu, then Shoigu may fall off a high building. However, I think Putin would be stupid to believe someone like Prigozhin will stop at that, especially if he's put in charge of the entire military. So I think assassins will be coming for Prigozhin. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5739 Posts
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Hildegard
Germany348 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5739 Posts
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
Counter terrorism state being declared in Moscow and regions. This is really dangerous time, I doubt Prigozhin is going to stop the war or improve the situation in Russia, so one doesn’t want him to suceeed but Putin is also terrible. There’s also the possibility that neither side can take over and other parties get involved and Russia starts to fragment, I hope NATO has emergency planning for seizing Russian nuclear sites if the country actually collapses. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5739 Posts
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Hildegard
Germany348 Posts
How long does it take for Wagner to reach Moscow from Rostov? Is it likely they can do that, spending time in the open while the Russian army uses air strikes against them? | ||
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2_2
Poland30 Posts
Prigozhin has a lot going in his favor: - loyal troops of his own that might feel they have nothing to lose - well-crafted image of a leader who is at the front with his troops and knows what they need as opposed to detached and uncaring leaders sitting in an office in Moscow - military demoralized by the war dragging on AND committed to defending against the Ukrainian counteroffensive at the same time - connections with powerful people in Russia who might not like how the war is going (this might actually be the decisive factor I feel, how many people in the MoD or Putin's circle would gamble on supporting him, if someone picks this time to manufacture another crisis somewhere else, then another, the regime might not be able to put out all the fires) I still think he's unlikely to come out on top when the dust settles, but who knows, it always seems impossible until it happens. Simply the fact that this has gone so far already seems like a huge blow to the Russian war effort in Ukraine. | ||
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0x64
Finland4601 Posts
On June 24 2023 16:31 Zaros wrote: No going back now, Putin has said this is treason and everything is and will be done to punish them. Counter terrorism state being declared in Moscow and regions. This is really dangerous time, I doubt Prigozhin is going to stop the war or improve the situation in Russia, so one doesn’t want him to suceeed but Putin is also terrible. There’s also the possibility that neither side can take over and other parties get involved and Russia starts to fragment, I hope NATO has emergency planning for seizing Russian nuclear sites if the country actually collapses. WTF, NATO is not going to do some Hollywood shit inside russia... | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9763 Posts
On June 24 2023 16:59 2_2 wrote: Air force I imagine? Moscow is pretty far away to go with a lot of troops and armor unopposed. Staging a coup and sitting near Ukraine doesn’t accomplish anything other than damaging Russian war effort. Although if the regular military doesn't oppose him soon enough, or worse (better?) start joining him, he might succeed, whatever the ultimate goal really is. It still seems unlikely, in a regular battle Wagner vs Russian MOD he'll simply lose, but since it might not come to that he has a hell lot of a better chance to succeed than any "popular uprising" against the system, when a ruler is toppled it's not by the powerless, it's by someone who already has power within the system. Prigozhin has a lot going in his favor: - loyal troops of his own that might feel they have nothing to lose - well-crafted image of a leader who is at the front with his troops and knows what they need as opposed to detached and uncaring leaders sitting in an office in Moscow - military demoralized by the war dragging on AND committed to defending against the Ukrainian counteroffensive at the same time - connections with powerful people in Russia who might not like how the war is going (this might actually be the decisive factor I feel, how many people in the MoD or Putin's circle would gamble on supporting him, if someone picks this time to manufacture another crisis somewhere else, then another, the regime might not be able to put out all the fires) I still think he's unlikely to come out on top when the dust settles, but who knows, it always seems impossible until it happens. Simply the fact that this has gone so far already seems like a huge blow to the Russian war effort in Ukraine. The thing is, whatever his true aims are, he'll need to have this situation won before his connections become apparent. This rebellion will definitely be put down. There's plenty enough Russian forces left to deal with this. The precedent of a PMC attacking its host country is absolutely terrifying to me, no matter the specifics of the situation. On June 24 2023 16:56 Hildegard wrote: So the Wagner forces are currently in Rostov. Is it correct to assume that they want to move toward Moscow? How long does it take for Wagner to reach Moscow from Rostov? Is it likely they can do that, spending time in the open while the Russian army uses air strikes against them? They entered Russia at two different sites, so if I'm getting it right, one group headed to Rostov to set up an HQ, the other is heading to Moscow. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
U.K. MOD also says they are marching on Moscow | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5599 Posts
On June 24 2023 08:55 Husyelt wrote: "Hello, and welcome to ... Revolutions." Haydn's Oxford Symphony 92 intensifies Loool! Looking forward to listening to that some day in the future. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22048 Posts
He, and the rest of Wagner, would have very little left to lose. Feels kind of unreal that this civil war might actually be happening. | ||
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ZeroByte13
780 Posts
If this gets prolonged... then we'll see, I guess. | ||
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