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Zurich15313 Posts
On March 12 2022 06:25 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2022 06:16 JimmiC wrote:On March 12 2022 06:02 Silvanel wrote:
In regard to flying something to Kiev (or anywhere close to the frontline) it's really risky. It is a war zone, a plane can be shot down by simple accident or can be shot down on purpose and Russians can claim it was shot accidentally. Lviv, of course, would be much safer but not really risk-free.
Also, I think some of You guys seriously underestimate Russian army.
1. Ukrainians had 245k standing army with a lot of battle hardened and experienced units (trough fighting in Donbas).
2. Add to that ~100k paramilitary.
3. Past eight years they have been modernizing their army.
4. They had advanced warning of invasion.
5. West is likely sharing a lot of intel with them and helping them in cyberwarfare and information war.
6. They have received a lot of military help and hardware.
7. They have superb morale.
8. Its winter.
If You compare this war to US & allies invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, then stop. It's not even close. It's a different type of war in fundamentally different circumstances.
Russian army is also sent to do, something it is not built to do. But they can learn from their mistakes and if this gets to bloody, they can stop restraining themselves. They are not carpet bombing yet, they are not using siege artillery in large quantities yet, they are spraying napalm all over cities or using tactical nukes.
Also, the Soviet Union taught us, that You can have a huge and fairly modern army and poor, struggling population at the same time. If Putin regime survives, we can end up with something like Soviet Union lite. All of this is just more reasons why no one will attack them. I get why tge Russian goverment is pretending like this is some sort of defensive attack to stop invasion, but the rest of the world it should be clear that is just the excuse. Anyone know why they chose now instead of better weather? Hubris or is there some advantage over now instead of june? The weather wouldn't be a problem if everything went according to keikaku and Kyiv was already taken. As a professional armchair general I'd like to add that I always start my wars on the first of march in Crusader Kings because the snow starts vanishing somewhere around that time, and then there's plenty of time to siege enemy provinces without having to worry about the winter penalty.
Well, there is a reason March is called March ...
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In the Allegro train that goes between Finland and Russia, the catering company is converting Rubles to Euros at a whopping 204-to-1. The consumer economy is being hit hard. Similarly striking were all the images of empty shelves of coke or other big brand imports in Russian supermarkets.
https://twitter.com/Dimmu141/status/1502560050145021958?t=9SD_vRKY3VSQ9m1ZAly44Q&s=19
Obviously this doesn't mean the country will collapse immediately, but it sure does look like quality of life will deteriorate quite significantly.
P.s. Finnish papers have been reporting very high numbers passengers coming from Russia with the intention of not going back, the brain drain continues there.
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On March 12 2022 06:21 Silvanel wrote:
The only reason I can think of right now, is that in winter Europe needs Russian gas to heat our homes. Maybe some reason related to Russian internal politics? Dunno. I would gladly read some good article on this topic.
That’s definitely the reason. Europe is much more depending on russian gas in winter, so that’s an important leverage. The longer the war lasts the warmer it will get though, but it’s quite clear Putin thought it would be a walk in the parc and that by the time the west would agree on something the invasion would be fait accompli and he would have a cosy puppet government in Kiev anyway.
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On March 12 2022 17:12 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2022 06:25 Sent. wrote:On March 12 2022 06:16 JimmiC wrote:On March 12 2022 06:02 Silvanel wrote:
In regard to flying something to Kiev (or anywhere close to the frontline) it's really risky. It is a war zone, a plane can be shot down by simple accident or can be shot down on purpose and Russians can claim it was shot accidentally. Lviv, of course, would be much safer but not really risk-free.
Also, I think some of You guys seriously underestimate Russian army.
1. Ukrainians had 245k standing army with a lot of battle hardened and experienced units (trough fighting in Donbas).
2. Add to that ~100k paramilitary.
3. Past eight years they have been modernizing their army.
4. They had advanced warning of invasion.
5. West is likely sharing a lot of intel with them and helping them in cyberwarfare and information war.
6. They have received a lot of military help and hardware.
7. They have superb morale.
8. Its winter.
If You compare this war to US & allies invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, then stop. It's not even close. It's a different type of war in fundamentally different circumstances.
Russian army is also sent to do, something it is not built to do. But they can learn from their mistakes and if this gets to bloody, they can stop restraining themselves. They are not carpet bombing yet, they are not using siege artillery in large quantities yet, they are spraying napalm all over cities or using tactical nukes.
Also, the Soviet Union taught us, that You can have a huge and fairly modern army and poor, struggling population at the same time. If Putin regime survives, we can end up with something like Soviet Union lite. All of this is just more reasons why no one will attack them. I get why tge Russian goverment is pretending like this is some sort of defensive attack to stop invasion, but the rest of the world it should be clear that is just the excuse. Anyone know why they chose now instead of better weather? Hubris or is there some advantage over now instead of june? The weather wouldn't be a problem if everything went according to keikaku and Kyiv was already taken. As a professional armchair general I'd like to add that I always start my wars on the first of march in Crusader Kings because the snow starts vanishing somewhere around that time, and then there's plenty of time to siege enemy provinces without having to worry about the winter penalty. Well, there is a reason March is called March ...
Yes, but where winter is mostly over in Italy, that same is not necessarily true in Ukraine 
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On March 12 2022 12:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2022 04:18 Acrofales wrote:On March 12 2022 03:33 Vivax wrote:On March 12 2022 03:26 Acrofales wrote:On March 12 2022 03:12 Vivax wrote:On March 12 2022 03:01 KwarK wrote:On March 12 2022 02:51 Vivax wrote:On March 12 2022 02:47 Gorsameth wrote:On March 12 2022 02:43 Vivax wrote:
The size of Russia is massive and hard to grasp. They're not going to commit too many forces on Ukraine while they have to account for a defensive scenario at the same time.
From what I've seen, they're trying to cut off the opponents from supplies and just wait them out after taking the thinly defended positions outside of the cities. Nothing new strategy wise when you aim at keeping casualties low, but certainly disastrous for civilians remaining there. What defensive scenario? No one in the world is thinking about actually attacking Russian soil. No one who plans on counterattacking you is going to admit it. They wouldn't tell the public either. Seems like the rational play to me. Russia has nuclear ICBMs and an economy smaller than Italy. Nobody wants to pick a fight and they have nothing worth fighting over. The Russian strategy you’re describing fails to explain why they attempted rapid encirclements and took such large losses on the attempt. If they meant for a slow inexorable advance then why all the aerial deployments, amphibious assaults, and armoured columns? Why the advances beyond supply lines? Why use and lose all these assets that have nothing to do with that strategy? I think it much more likely that they intended a rapid seizure of the capital, a decapitation of the Ukrainian government, and the creation of a puppet regime. To present the world with a fait accompli before it could react. That would be the smartest approach, without an organized national government resisting them there would be nobody to request western arms and nobody for the west to give them to. They just failed. I don't know about the numbers or who's actually winning and I try not to look for it. It's likely manipulated information wherever I look. But considering the amphibian attacks it seems likely it's a two headed offensive that aims at encirclement. Once Kiew is encircled the Russians can just control the supply flows. My local newspapers speak of humanitarian corridors being shot at and the like so it's not unlikely they already reached that point. You don't need corridors when your army is in control. NATO could set up a humanitarian airbridge to Kiev. Putin may be mad, but shooting down a freight plane flying the US flag and filled with food and medicine would be a move of escalation even he would have to reconsider. In a recent report I read by the Atlantic Council, it'd be fairly effective in military terms, fairly unlikely to escalate the conflict, and a lifesaver in humanitarian terms: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/the-big-story/what-are-the-risks-and-benefits-of-us-nato-military-options-in-ukraine-our-strategic-risk-calculator-has-answers/Then again, the likelihood Russia is planning for a long drawn out war is still small. They wanted a blitzkrieg and they got a quagmire. it's more likely they carpet bomb Kiev into surrender than try a drawn out siege. Yeah they could but that's a declaration of war as no supply plane is going to fly unescorted unless it's automated and filled with fireworks. What they could do is use drones as long as they are undetected, which seems unlikely. I'm glad you know better than a few dozen generals, and other experts they surveyed about these ideas! Do you mean Russian generals? Because if you do i think me or Vivax would outplay them.
Eh, you're both obvious mafia.
##vote: Vivax
But no, I meant the generals cited in this article that was in the original post I made: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/the-big-story/what-are-the-risks-and-benefits-of-us-nato-military-options-in-ukraine-our-strategic-risk-calculator-has-answers/
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On March 12 2022 17:30 Oukka wrote:In the Allegro train that goes between Finland and Russia, the catering company is converting Rubles to Euros at a whopping 204-to-1. The consumer economy is being hit hard. Similarly striking were all the images of empty shelves of coke or other big brand imports in Russian supermarkets. https://twitter.com/Dimmu141/status/1502560050145021958?t=9SD_vRKY3VSQ9m1ZAly44Q&s=19Obviously this doesn't mean the country will collapse immediately, but it sure does look like quality of life will deteriorate quite significantly. P.s. Finnish papers have been reporting very high numbers passengers coming from Russia with the intention of not going back, the brain drain continues there.
Speaking about brain drain - some of my russian colleagues are already looking for a way to obtain a citizenship in another countries to relocate eventually
And when it comes to the weather conditions, it's hard to predict. At the moment the difference in daily temperature between western and eastern parts of Ukraine is somewhere 15 degrees C. Eastern part is experiencing one of the coldest periods for the last 3 months (including the whole winter season) with blizzards. Surely it will pass, but it will be followed by the mud season
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Why not Switzerland? I can't see Putin leaving his bunker under the Urals for this.
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Bennett has been trying to be the mediator. I'm guessing he wants the credit from success being at home. It's neutral enough. Also, why Switzerland? They may be neutral, but they're also firmly part of "the west".
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Because Switzerland would require Putin's plane to fly across a whole bunch of countries that have banned Russian planes?
Plus Switzerland is hardly neutral in this conflict, didn't they join in the EU/US sanctions?
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Hasn't Turkey done the same? Besides I would imagine Switzerland is closer and more comfort to Putin who does not like going out at anytime in the past few years.
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Northern Ireland23916 Posts
Aside from the idea of Israel mediating a territorial dispute seeming well…
Hey if there are good relations with both parties, or at least respectful ones and it’s going to help push towards a sensible resolution go for it
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Turkey hasn't sanctioned afaik.
Jerusalem seems good compared to Geneva. It's close to the remaining allies and not in the centre of Europe, among, I wouldn't call it overblown to say, adversaries.
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Probably nothing will come out of this. Israeli PM has already tried to negotiate peace. I don't see any new circumstances for a change...
Well, Russia seems keen on creating many new small countries to destabilise their enemies. Other than easy to control one very small country or to annex it, I really don't see why they go for this strategy for yet another time... Or maybe this is their interpretation of the Minsk agreement although in a forced manner?
Russian occupying forces 'plan pseudo referendum in Kherson'
Russian occupying forces are reportedly planning to stage a "pseudo" referendum in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson to create a breakaway region.
The move has not been confirmed by Russia but the deputy head of the council in Kherson said on social media: "The creation of the (republic) will turn our region into a hopeless hole without life or a future".
The port city of Kherson is an important ship-building centre but it was among the first parts of Ukraine to fall to Russian occupation earlier in the war.
Ukrainian protesters continue to protest against the occupation.
Link: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russia-news-putin-nuclear-live-updates-kyiv-12541713
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Would not be surprised if stays closed for the rest of the month.
Russia’s central bank on Saturday said it has decided not to reopen stock market trading on the Moscow Exchange from March 14-18, with the exception of some non-open-market transactions an transactions using the SPFI payment system.
It said the foreign exchange market, money market and repo market would open at 0700 GMT on those days. The bank said it would announce the operating mode for the following week at a later date. (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
Source
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Can someone who understands this stuff better than i do explain what the effects of not opening the stock exchange vs opening and everything crashing are?
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On March 13 2022 03:48 Simberto wrote:
Can someone who understands this stuff better than i do explain what the effects of not opening the stock exchange vs opening and everything crashing are?
I can't say it would look like this exactly but you get the idea.
+ Show Spoiler +
They can't open the market as long as their central bank has its assets frozen would be my guess.
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Yes, but what are the effects on actual reality outside of the stock market?
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The consequences won't be so bad if they open the exchange after making it look like they already won the war. People would be more optimistic about investing their money in Russia.
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On March 13 2022 04:45 Sent. wrote:
The consequences won't be so bad if they open the exchange after making it look like they already won the war. People would be more optimistic about investing their money in Russia.
Which people? No one outside Russia will invest there anymore for the fear of simply having their shares confiscated at the next opportunity.
The point is, that making business with/in Russia is at these times not only problematic due to sanctions, but also simply because the risk of complete loss has to be factored in at levels that ruin any calculations. And the fact that Rouble is plummeting is certainly not helping to attract foreign investors. (and the only thing they are doing to somehow keep it from totally crashing is lashing after foreign investors and foreign currency in general, not exactly measures to attract said foreign investors)
And while sanctions may be lifted partially at some distant point in the future, this risk calculation remains.
That's like buying houses in the flood channel, after the entire city drowned... It ain't smart business, even after the water is gone.
So that leaves you with the Russian ultra wealthy, who can do what they have done in the last 30 years, by buying/getting basically everything. Like every yacht they got home they can now probably trade for an entire company... And the normal Russians, who probably have bigger struggles in life than the stock market at this point.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://miro.medium.com/max/656/1*AGjq6Kg-GmVhuG8hv0v_ZQ.jpeg)
