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On March 13 2022 04:45 Sent. wrote: The consequences won't be so bad if they open the exchange after making it look like they already won the war. People would be more optimistic about investing their money in Russia.
Which people? No one outside Russia will invest there anymore for the fear of simply having their shares confiscated at the next opportunity. The point is, that making business with/in Russia is at these times not only problematic due to sanctions, but also simply because the risk of complete loss has to be factored in at levels that ruin any calculations. And the fact that Rouble is plummeting is certainly not helping to attract foreign investors. (and the only thing they are doing to somehow keep it from totally crashing is lashing after foreign investors and foreign currency in general, not exactly measures to attract said foreign investors) And while sanctions may be lifted partially at some distant point in the future, this risk calculation remains. That's like buying houses in the flood channel, after the entire city drowned... It ain't smart business, even after the water is gone.
So that leaves you with the Russian ultra wealthy, who can do what they have done in the last 30 years, by buying/getting basically everything. Like every yacht they got home they can now probably trade for an entire company... And the normal Russians, who probably have bigger struggles in life than the stock market at this point.
Mainly Russians who do business in Russia but other Russians would have reasons to be optimistic too because I'm convinced that if the Russia won the war as planned, in less than a year we'd have certain European countries strongly pushing for "adjusting" the sanctions.
To be clear, I mean that it's better to be neck deep in shit than nose deep.
Well, Putin realised his own FSB security agency had been lying to him about Ukraine, possible resistance there, etc. So in a typical Stalin-esque fashion he starts to repress his generals, a sign of weakness perhaps.
Probably a similar lie about military preparedness, hence military actually not going to plan. Good to see him fail though!
On March 13 2022 03:48 Simberto wrote: Can someone who understands this stuff better than i do explain what the effects of not opening the stock exchange vs opening and everything crashing are?
So the point of a stock market is capital allocation. When you buy a company’s stock you’re lowering its cost of capital which makes it more cash efficient. The opposite for when you sell one. When you sell you’re voting that the company isn’t giving sufficient returns to justify holding it at that price.
Securing funding for new/growing companies without a stock exchange is very difficult (outside of Silicon Valley etc.) because they can’t do stock offerings without an exchange to host them.
For established companies it’s less important because they’re already funded and operating, they use operating income to meet cash needs. So closing the exchange doesn’t impact them as much. However it still causes their cost of capital to go out of alignment with true investor sentiment. With the exchange frozen their cost of equity capital is also frozen. In the short term it’s not a big deal but in the long term you end up with valuable companies overpaying and worthless companies underpaying.
On March 13 2022 08:20 SC-Shield wrote: Well, Putin realised his own FSB security agency had been lying to him about Ukraine, possible resistance there, etc. So in a typical Stalin-esque fashion he starts to repress his generals, a sign of weakness perhaps.
Probably a similar lie about military preparedness, hence military actually not going to plan. Good to see him fail though!
There were rumors that FSB leaked assassination plans on Zelensky to his security which allowed them to thwart 3 attempts on his life. It seems that Russian secret police is against Putin. Is it some power struggle because he's been occupying his spot for 10 years straight now and 9 years before that? Perhaps some old resentments from when KGB got replaced with FSB and maybe newer generation of FSB officers got mistreated?
I guess we'll never know but there definitely seems to be an internal conflict within Russia's governing apparatus.
On March 13 2022 08:20 SC-Shield wrote: Well, Putin realised his own FSB security agency had been lying to him about Ukraine, possible resistance there, etc. So in a typical Stalin-esque fashion he starts to repress his generals, a sign of weakness perhaps.
Probably a similar lie about military preparedness, hence military actually not going to plan. Good to see him fail though!
There were rumors that FSB leaked assassination plans on Zelensky to his security which allowed them to thwart 3 attempts on his life. It seems that Russian secret police is against Putin. Is it some power struggle because he's been occupying his spot for 10 years straight now and 9 years before that? Perhaps some old resentments from when KGB got replaced with FSB and maybe newer generation of FSB officers got mistreated?
I guess we'll never know but there definitely seems to be an internal conflict within Russia's governing apparatus.
Ukraine claimed that a source in FSB tipped them off but it looks more like an attempt to create uncertainty and distrust within the Russian ranks. If they had such channel to a big shot FSB guy, they would do everything to protect it, not shout it out. It makes no sense.
Here you have a presentation about why Russian/Ukrainian military disparity isn't as large as it would seem on paper. Despite Russia spending a lot more money on their military and having more resources most of them are actually going into stuff that's not useful in this conflict while for the past 8 years all Ukraine did was focus their military spending on sole purpose of defending against Russian invasion.
On March 14 2022 00:59 Manit0u wrote: Supposedly Russian marines refused to land in Odessa as they were ordered to kill everyone in sight, including women and children.
If that's true it would seem that Putin is getting really desperate.
Is that based on those intercepted calls or some other source?
If this story is true it is no wonder troops of Belarus are refusing to invade Ukraine, which was supposedly meant to happen last week.
The bodies of Russian soldiers killed in battle in Ukraine are filling up morgues in Belarus, local residents told RFE/RL.
Russian soldiers killed in battle are being brought by truck to the morgues and then sent back to Russia by train or plane, residents said.
Residents described the horror of seeing the bodies loaded on a train at Mazyr for transfer back to Russia.
“The number of bodies was unbelievably large. People at the Mazyr station were simply shocked by the number of bodies being put on the train,” a local resident in Mazyr told RFE/RL.
The morgues in Homel and Naroulia are also filled up, according to local residents.
Belarusian doctors have been threatened with the loss of their job if they are caught spreading information about the dead and injured Russian soldiers.
U.S. officials have estimated that several thousand Russian soldiers have been killed so far in the two-week old war.
Here's an article about a website that allows those outside of Russia to talk to Russians about the war and help spread news to those who are cut off. I haven't given it a go yet but maybe someone in here might want to use it.
With the Kremlin restricting access to online platforms like Twitter and Instagram in recent days, people in Russia are quickly losing access to information about the war in Ukraine that doesn’t come from the government. Enter Squad303, a website created by a group of Polish programmers to help people from around the world establish a dialogue with their Russian counterparts.
Spotted by The Wall Street Journal, the website randomly generates a number or email address for you to contact. It pulls from a database that contains 20 million cellphone numbers and approximately 140 million email addresses. Since the Squad303 went online on March 6th, its creators told The Journal that individuals from around the world have sent nearly 7 million text messages and 2 million emails in Russian, along with countless images and videos from the conflict. “Our aim was to break through Putin’s digital wall of censorship and make sure that Russian people are not totally cut off from the world and the reality of what Russia is doing in Ukraine,” a spokesperson for told the outlet.
So now Russia is asking China for help, militarily. Weapons etc. Can't see China agreeing to this because all it takes is for a couple of Chinese weapons, and other hardware to fall into Western hands and then they have an intelligence goldmine.
Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion of Ukraine, sparking concern in the White House that Beijing may undermine western efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country.
US officials told the Financial Times that Russia had requested military equipment and other assistance since the start of the invasion. They declined to give details about what materiel Russia had requested.
Another person familiar with the situation said the US was preparing to warn allies about the situation amid some indications that China may be preparing to help Russia. Other US officials have also said there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponry as the war in Ukraine approaches the start of its third week.
The White House did not comment. The Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for a comment.
The revelation comes as Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, heads to Rome for talks on Monday with Yang Jiechi, China’s top foreign policy official. People familiar with the situation said Sullivan would sternly warn China that any efforts to help Russia prosecute the invasion or avoid western sanctions would have consequences.
Before leaving Washington on Sunday, Sullivan warned China not to try to “bail out” Russia by helping Moscow to circumvent the sanctions that the US and its allies have imposed on Putin and his regime.
“We will ensure that neither China, nor anyone else, can compensate Russia for these losses,” Sullivan told NBC television on Sunday. “In terms of the specific means of doing that, again, I’m not going to lay all of that out in public, but we will communicate that privately to China, as we have already done and will continue to do.”
The request for equipment and other kinds of unspecified military assistance comes as the Russian military struggles to make as much progress in Ukraine as western intelligence believe they expected.
It also raises fresh questions about the China-Russia relationship, which has grown increasingly strong as both countries express their opposition to the US over everything from Nato to sanctions.
China has portrayed itself as a neutral actor in the Ukraine crisis and has refused to condemn Russia for invading the country. The US has also seen no sign that Chinese president Xi Jinping is willing to put any pressure on Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart.
The two leaders signed a joint statement in Beijing last month describing the Beijing-Moscow partnership as having “no limits”, in another sign that the two capitals were drawing even closer together.
On March 14 2022 02:13 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: If this story is true it is no wonder troops of Belarus are refusing to invade Ukraine, which was supposedly meant to happen last week.
Belarussian army wasn't very keen on invading Ukraine from the start. Officers and other military personnel have been leaving the service and outright refusing to carry out any orders, a lot of them are also moving away from the Ukrainian border.
The thing is, Belarus probably counts on Russia's failure in this conflict so they can finally get rid of Lukashenko who has been in office for 28 years now with Russia supporting his dictatorship (and people in Belarus are not happy with him). If they (the Russians) get held back by Ukraine they won't have enough steam, morale and resources to thwart potential revolt in Belarus.
On March 14 2022 05:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So now Russia is asking China for help, militarily. Weapons etc. Can't see China agreeing to this because all it takes is for a couple of Chinese weapons, and other hardware to fall into Western hands and then they have an intelligence goldmine.
Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion of Ukraine, sparking concern in the White House that Beijing may undermine western efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country.
US officials told the Financial Times that Russia had requested military equipment and other assistance since the start of the invasion. They declined to give details about what materiel Russia had requested.
Another person familiar with the situation said the US was preparing to warn allies about the situation amid some indications that China may be preparing to help Russia. Other US officials have also said there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponry as the war in Ukraine approaches the start of its third week.
The White House did not comment. The Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for a comment.
The revelation comes as Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, heads to Rome for talks on Monday with Yang Jiechi, China’s top foreign policy official. People familiar with the situation said Sullivan would sternly warn China that any efforts to help Russia prosecute the invasion or avoid western sanctions would have consequences.
Before leaving Washington on Sunday, Sullivan warned China not to try to “bail out” Russia by helping Moscow to circumvent the sanctions that the US and its allies have imposed on Putin and his regime.
“We will ensure that neither China, nor anyone else, can compensate Russia for these losses,” Sullivan told NBC television on Sunday. “In terms of the specific means of doing that, again, I’m not going to lay all of that out in public, but we will communicate that privately to China, as we have already done and will continue to do.”
The request for equipment and other kinds of unspecified military assistance comes as the Russian military struggles to make as much progress in Ukraine as western intelligence believe they expected.
It also raises fresh questions about the China-Russia relationship, which has grown increasingly strong as both countries express their opposition to the US over everything from Nato to sanctions.
China has portrayed itself as a neutral actor in the Ukraine crisis and has refused to condemn Russia for invading the country. The US has also seen no sign that Chinese president Xi Jinping is willing to put any pressure on Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart.
The two leaders signed a joint statement in Beijing last month describing the Beijing-Moscow partnership as having “no limits”, in another sign that the two capitals were drawing even closer together.
China declining to help Russia won't be to avoid an 'intelligence goldmine' but because China has no interest in risking sanctions for directly aiding Russia.
China wants to sit on the sideline and watch Russia and the West fight and exploit Russia's isolation to rip the off for goods they need. They have no interest in actually getting involved.
On March 14 2022 02:13 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: If this story is true it is no wonder troops of Belarus are refusing to invade Ukraine, which was supposedly meant to happen last week.
Belarussian army wasn't very keen on invading Ukraine from the start. Officers and other military personnel have been leaving the service and outright refusing to carry out any orders, a lot of them are also moving away from the Ukrainian border.
The thing is, Belarus probably counts on Russia's failure in this conflict so they can finally get rid of Lukashenko who has been in office for 28 years now with Russia supporting his dictatorship (and people in Belarus are not happy with him). If they (the Russians) get held back by Ukraine they won't have enough steam, morale and resources to thwart potential revolt in Belarus.
And Belarus is probably afraid of getting included in Russia's sanctions, and I imagine they would suffer even more then Russia is, and not get any help from Putin to deal with an economic collapse.
On March 14 2022 02:13 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: If this story is true it is no wonder troops of Belarus are refusing to invade Ukraine, which was supposedly meant to happen last week.
Belarussian army wasn't very keen on invading Ukraine from the start. Officers and other military personnel have been leaving the service and outright refusing to carry out any orders, a lot of them are also moving away from the Ukrainian border.
The thing is, Belarus probably counts on Russia's failure in this conflict so they can finally get rid of Lukashenko who has been in office for 28 years now with Russia supporting his dictatorship (and people in Belarus are not happy with him). If they (the Russians) get held back by Ukraine they won't have enough steam, morale and resources to thwart potential revolt in Belarus.
That would be great... It wasn't that long ago that there were those huge protests in Belarus.
On March 14 2022 05:33 Gorsameth wrote: China declining to help Russia won't be to avoid an 'intelligence goldmine' but because China has no interest in risking sanctions for directly aiding Russia.
China wants to sit on the sideline and watch Russia and the West fight and exploit Russia's isolation to rip the off for goods they need. They have no interest in actually getting involved.
Yes, first of all they want to avoid any sanctions themselves as they're already having a lot of problems (power outages due to lack of quality coal etc.). Covid coupled with their housing marked collapse, then there was the ban on Australian coal which ground a lot of their industry into a halt, they also have a potential big crisis on their hands with their rail situation and a lot of their non-coal power plants failing (one nuclear is most likely leaking radiation and a lot of their dams are in a bad shape and threaten cascade failures if they can't hold the water during upcoming spring).
They'd gladly sit this one out.
Intelligence is not a problem at all since China doesn't really have that much if any innovative military tech and they definitely wouldn't lend those to Russia.
I also think China won't join this conflict for so many reasons. One is sanctions and losing western investment, another is they have nothing to gain from Ukraine. If China was committed to helping Russia, they would be providing Russia some kind of alternative market during those sanctions. Apart from wheat trade, I've not heard of anything else yet.
Plus you gotta ask yourself if you're China. Even if they did help the Russians by sending them equipment and such. Would that even tip the balance to Russian favor to win? Probably not.
You have thousands of foreign fighters VOLUNTEERING to help Ukraine, you have every western nation donating money, and supplies to Ukraine. Does China really want to be the only nation on the other side trying to compete with that?
And that's on top of the sanctions they are sure to receive.
It just doesn't make any sense for China to get involved here. They have so much to lose and nothing to gain. If I was in the CCP I'd be fucking pissed at Putin for putting everyone in such a bad situation.
By the by, the fact that Putin is now begging for Chinese military assistance and is offering to pay Middle Eastern fighters to come join the fight just shows how desperate the military situation on the ground is for the Russians.
This can't last much longer, the military is going to break.
On March 14 2022 06:56 JimmiC wrote: Probably waiting for Russia to be completely broke then buy their resources on pennies on the dollar and I don't mean after the Russians get it out of the ground, the rights and everything.
Well China will be able to get those whether Russia wins or loses. If Russia loses and remains under sanctions China could make a killing without having to lift a finger.
Russia will be so desperate that they're not going to refuse them out of spite.
EPT
