EPTedit: Follow up, your right when you say " There is going to be a lot of desinformation over the next couple of days and it helps to clarify on who could be responsible for what early on. " Or maybe we hold ourselves to a higher standard and don't speculate randomly.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 453
| Forum Index > General Forum |
NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
|
Taelshin
Canada420 Posts
edit: Follow up, your right when you say " There is going to be a lot of desinformation over the next couple of days and it helps to clarify on who could be responsible for what early on. " Or maybe we hold ourselves to a higher standard and don't speculate randomly. | ||
|
zeo
Serbia6344 Posts
On June 06 2023 17:05 Manit0u wrote: It's a risk of humanitarian crisis because I think like 80 settlements will be flooded? It's not much different from regular heavy flood, which is typically a humanitarian crisis. No, I mean the talk that Crimea won't have any drinking water, that is to say a humanitarian crisis in Crimea. Of course thousands of homes near the bank of the river will be affected but my sentance was about Crimea specifically | ||
|
Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
Perhaps this is a desperate move by Russia to stop advances towards Crimea by flooding the area, so they can focus defence on other areas? | ||
|
Yurie
12186 Posts
On June 06 2023 18:22 Zaros wrote: No idea how accurate this is but our friend WhiteRa has tweeted this graphic of the flooding caused by the dam explosion. Looks crazy: https://twitter.com/WhiteRaSC/status/1665992426354270208 Perhaps this is a desperate move by Russia to stop advances towards Crimea by flooding the area, so they can focus defence on other areas? Would be a strange timing if so. You would want to flood it to eliminate the opponent forces across the river that suddenly has no logistical support. | ||
zatic
Zurich15366 Posts
No one gains from this. Russia wouldn't intentionally cutoff much of the fresh water supply to Crimea. Never mind that any movement of Ukrainian attacks over the river would only be delayed. The water will eventually recede once the reservoir is drained. Make no sense from Russian PoV to gain a few weeks in one small sector of the front when you offset it to the catastrophic damage this is doing. It might be a Russian fuckup since they controlled the dam, but I maintain this is likely failure and not (intentional) sabotage. | ||
|
Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
If not, then both sides could be sort of benefactors, but marginally so. Russia could blow it to prevent attempts of UA crossing, but it would make more sence to do after the crossing. Ukraine could do it to wash away forward Russian position (eastern bank is much lower than western one), but this amount of water would make ground wet for days and hinder any vehicle movement in the area. | ||
|
ZeroByte13
801 Posts
| ||
|
Ardias
Russian Federation618 Posts
On June 06 2023 19:56 ZeroByte13 wrote: Won't water go away in a few days? Or ground will remain unpassable or barely passable for longer time? It will go away, but for some time the ground will be wet like in spring, and we saw enough stuck vehicles from both sides in the mud conditions. It will need time and hot weather to dry out to the regular level, though I'm not sure for how long. Days, maybe few weeks. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain18491 Posts
On June 06 2023 20:01 Ardias wrote: It will go away, but for some time the ground will be wet like in spring, and we saw enough stuck vehicles from both sides in the mud conditions. It will need time and hot weather to dry out to the regular level, though I'm not sure for how long. Days, maybe few weeks. That amount of water doesn't just pass through and dry out in a few days. It'll take weeks or even months to establish a normal situation, and that situation may be an even larger marsh/wetland than it is already, because for water to drain it needs somewhere to drain to, which is not necessarily the case that near to sea level already. | ||
|
CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2914 Posts
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1426dlu/ukrainian_forces_evacuating_barrier_islands_on/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button This is a video of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the islands downstream. So very poor cordination if they did it... Also why blow it now and not during the Kherson offensive? At the same time a river crossing may be harder now but it was extremly unlikely even before this. So not much to gain for Russia either. Unconfirmed reports state that the water levels were raised to maximum levels and that there was a massive explosion 02.20 points to it being deliberate. In general it's just a pretty weird thing to do which explains all the confusion. | ||
|
zeo
Serbia6344 Posts
On June 06 2023 19:30 Ardias wrote: Dam was under fire from HIMARS for months (since it is also acts as a bridge over Dniepr), and since it's an actual frontline, I doubt there was a possibility to sufficiently maintain and repair it. So it could be simply a structural failure. If not, then both sides could be sort of benefactors, but marginally so. Russia could blow it to prevent attempts of UA crossing, but it would make more sence to do after the crossing. Ukraine could do it to wash away forward Russian position (eastern bank is much lower than western one), but this amount of water would make ground wet for days and hinder any vehicle movement in the area. Here is a Washington Post article from December where a Ukranian commander confirms that they fired HIMARS rockets at the dam targeting the locks Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/ There is also a video that is circling around now thats in fact from these rocket attacks months ago. The gates (locks) were damaged then and apparently the situation got worse over the last month or so. These dams however are constructed to overflow if the gates fail but eh, what interesting is that for sure both sides have 24h cameras pointed at the dam for surveillance. No one releasing footage means that it probably failed without a boom and showing that means that they cannot blame the other side 100%. Both sides have nothing to gain from this at the moment and will create large scale problems for the civilian populations on both sides of the river, regardless of who is in control | ||
|
FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Netherlands30548 Posts
| ||
|
Magic Powers
Austria4478 Posts
On June 06 2023 20:30 zeo wrote: Both sides have nothing to gain from this at the moment and will create large scale problems for the civilian populations on both sides of the river, regardless of who is in control Ukrainian offensive potential is now further limited, thus reducing the strain on Russian logistics and allowing their troops to defend an even smaller area. The Dnipro is literally the best line of defense that Russia's military has, and now the whole region has become effectively impassable. Putin wants to render Ukraine unliveable for Ukrainians, which is more important to him than to make it liveable for Russians. The timing is highly suspect, as in recent weeks the pressure against Russian defenses has allegedly increased. Russian command has great insight into the most vulnerable fronts and would do anything to make sure a repeat of a complete collapse of the defenses - like in late 2022 - can be ruled out. This threat is far more relevant to them than potential issues arising from water shortages. So the claim that Russian leadership has nothing to gain from this is highly dubious. | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
JUSTMEBEASTN
3 Posts
On June 06 2023 21:11 Magic Powers wrote: Ukrainian offensive potential is now further limited, thus reducing the strain on Russian logistics and allowing their troops to defend an even smaller area. The Dnipro is literally the best line of defense that Russia's military has, and now the whole region has become effectively impassable. Putin wants to render Ukraine unliveable for Ukrainians, which is more important to him than to make it liveable for Russians. The timing is highly suspect, as in recent weeks the pressure against Russian defenses has allegedly increased. Russian command has great insight into the most vulnerable fronts and would do anything to make sure a repeat of a complete collapse of the defenses - like in late 2022 - can be ruled out. This threat is far more relevant to them than potential issues arising from water shortages. So the claim that Russian leadership has nothing to gain from this is highly dubious. I mean... if anything it makes retaking the north of the flooded area is easier for Ukraine retake and harder for russia to enforce.. it seems Ukraine strategy is to take as much area back from the Russians as possible, which would raise morale and overall increase "fighting back" potential. We are all observers and these are just opinions, but to say neither side has something to gain from this is just silly, wouldn't doubt it if Ukraine is thinking about long-term and this dam being blown up is part of a "longer phase" | ||
|
Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On June 06 2023 22:43 JUSTMEBEASTN wrote: I mean... if anything it makes retaking the north of the flooded area is easier for Ukraine retake and harder for russia to enforce.. it seems Ukraine strategy is to take as much area back from the Russians as possible, which would raise morale and overall increase "fighting back" potential. We are all observers and these are just opinions, but to say neither side has something to gain from this is just silly, wouldn't doubt it if Ukraine is thinking about long-term and this dam being blown up is part of a "longer phase" Most of the Area north of the flooding is controlled by Ukraine already ![[image loading]](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2023/6/6/fa9affce-b478-4a86-a5c9-cd0505253909.png) | ||
|
Manit0u
Poland17872 Posts
It seems that the Russians were a bit over-eager with mining all the areas and are blowing themselves up on their own mines when retreating from unexpected Ukrainian attacks. | ||
|
Manit0u
Poland17872 Posts
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/xCO7wtY.png) That is an interesting piece of info. | ||
KwarK
United States44449 Posts
This kind of attack has been Russia’s modus operandi in eastern Ukraine for a decade. It’s what they do. | ||
|
maybenexttime
Poland5914 Posts
On June 07 2023 00:34 Manit0u wrote: That is an interesting piece of info. Reconstruction of the events/changes in the Russian narrative: | ||
| ||
