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On April 19 2023 04:34 maybenexttime wrote: There is no reaction from the Russian army because that's how they have always operated. They acted the same when they invaded Poland in 1939, they did that in Afghanistan, they did that in Chechnya and now they're doing it in Ukraine.
I wanted to diasagree and say they're not as bad as they were in 39 but then I remembered all those pictures of stolen washing machines in Ukraine and I'm not sure now haha
A good watch if anyone is interested (and patient enough to sit through a lengthy video). This guy actually makes some good content as a middle-aged Russian who was running his own business in Russia and was forced to flee the country out of fear of what started going on in there after the war began.
Some of the highlights of Russian Q1 financial report (compared to Q1/22):
Oil & gas revenues: down 45%
Budget income: down 21%
Budget expenses: up 44%
Budget deficit: ~4.6 trillion RUB (will probably turn into big inflation as they printed over 2 trillion RUB to patch it up)
Revenues are misleading here. Let’s say you sell a barrel at $100 with $40 cost. Profit is $60. Now let’s say you sell the same barrel but due to price limits the revenue drops 45% to $55. Profit is $15. You’ve lost 75% of your margin from a 45% drop in revenue because cost didn’t move with it.
That’s why economists are cheerleading India and China buying steeply discounted Russian oil. Oil is an inelastic commodity, demand doesn’t change much with price. If the supply goes down then someone who needs oil has to go without but but most people have to buy it and so the price has to go up a lot before demand goes down to match supply. My demand for oil is not price sensitive, I’d still fill my car at 10x the price because I need to get to work. Enough people like me and the price can spike out of control.
If we completely cut Russia off from the market then their revenues would crash but the price of oil would soar and even low quantities of smuggled Russian oil would fetch good prices. Plus the political fallout would be significant, famines in the third world and cost of living issues in the first. The price caps have destroyed Russian revenues without constricting global supply. The more they sell at capped prices the better.
The problem Russia has is that there's a cap on their oil prices. There were also articles stating that neither China nor India are really interested in increasing their oil intake from Russia any further. They did get some discounted oil from them when sanctions first hit but I think they either saturated their own market for it enough or the infrastructure isn't there to significantly increase the quantity of oil being brought in. Gotta dig up some more into this I guess.
On April 19 2023 04:18 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: When someone joins ISIS and starts beheading people there is often a discussion about the kind of cultural, religious and economic reasons there are for doing such extreme things.
Russias army is doing ISIS levels of warcrimes in Ukraine but almost no one in the west expected that. And frankly many people seem to have problems even accepting it.
What is happening is similar to the atrocities in Germany in '44 and '45 by the red army, right down to the alcholism and leveled cities. The difference is of course that in WWII the red army had just fougth of invaders trying their best to genocide their entire country which has been historically been used to explain it.
But this time they are invading what is supposed a brother country. It is like Sweden going full nazi invasion on Norway to steal their oil.
Also there is the full spectrum of warcrimes from individuals acting on their own, groups, orders to commit warcrimes and basically all the way up to the strategic levels (lets try to break civilian infrastructure in the most efficent way possible to terrorize them into surrendering).
There seems to be little or no reaction from the army itself, apparantly this is fine and the way things are.
That can't have happend overnight. The Russian army was like this before the war. And an army is made up from people who come from a society. And if the army decides to go full ISIS in 2022 with cameras everywhere that is going to reflect very badly on that society, the people living in it and their culture. Because people don't just lose all their morals from putting on a uniform. The nazis did manage to make ordinary people commit warcrimes but they often had to work to get them there. Warcrimes have at best no military value and are often counterproductive to the war effort, and there are multiple levels of oversight in any army that at the very least has to ignore whats happening. So it seems almost like a culture within the institution itself.
So even if the average Russian can't be expected to voice their dissent something still smells rotten in the state of Russia. And that is if we are being very generous with our assumptions of why the vast majority keep silent or are pro war.
So, are all Australians also subhuman orcs? Surely the special ops dudes who went around killing Afghani civilians for fun and their commanders who covered it up are also reflective of their society, the people living in it, and culture? Is every American who lived during Vietnam war a subhuman orc? How about Indians and Pakistanis, are they also subhuman orcs? Surely at least the Chinese must be, the entire 1,44 billion of them, for not standing up against the atrocities their government carries out?
Labels and judgments like this are no more useful than war crimes are. All it does is incite further violence and disrupt avenues towards reconciliation.
On April 19 2023 04:34 maybenexttime wrote: There is no reaction from the Russian army because that's how they have always operated. They acted the same when they invaded Poland in 1939, they did that in Afghanistan, they did that in Chechnya and now they're doing it in Ukraine.
I wanted to diasagree and say they're not as bad as they were in 39 but then I remembered all those pictures of stolen washing machines in Ukraine and I'm not sure now haha
If the problem was limited to stolen washing machines, instead of genocide, rape, destruction and kidnapping, we'd be talking a lot less about it. And yes, it's completely fucked. As was pointed out, this was a brethren country with many families sharing members across borders. The fact that a modern military can behave like this, with little oversight and zero repercussions, is insane
On April 20 2023 01:04 KwarK wrote: Some of the most remarkable combat footage you’ll ever see. + Show Spoiler [some deaths] +
https://youtu.be/fzL3rUfF_wY
Holy shit that's intense. And what a leader he is!
They were literally seconds from being grenaded in their dugout when he took command of the situation. Saved every man in his section.
Omfg that was close. And my man the POV guy is one of the bravest souls I've ever seen. I very much doubt I would have the balls to jump out of the trench like that and into the open, but he got like 5 kills off of it, and definitively saved all of their lives. Definitively medal worthy
Your friendly reminder that bakhmut still hasn't fallen. This isn't the full march to the sea yet but a pretty aggressive probe to see just how fragile those southern defenses are. Russia is evacuating the area near the front but they have a lot of troops in reserve ready to throw at any offensive that contains the western armor.
On April 19 2023 04:34 maybenexttime wrote: There is no reaction from the Russian army because that's how they have always operated. They acted the same when they invaded Poland in 1939, they did that in Afghanistan, they did that in Chechnya and now they're doing it in Ukraine.
I wanted to diasagree and say they're not as bad as they were in 39 but then I remembered all those pictures of stolen washing machines in Ukraine and I'm not sure now haha
If the problem was limited to stolen washing machines, instead of genocide, rape, destruction and kidnapping, we'd be talking a lot less about it. And yes, it's completely fucked. As was pointed out, this was a brethren country with many families sharing members across borders. The fact that a modern military can behave like this, with little oversight and zero repercussions, is insane
What I had in mind was the behaviour of common soldiers. No one doubts Russian leadership is responsible for the warcrimes, but I'm not sure if their soldiers rape and pillage as much as their fathers and grandparents did.
On April 19 2023 04:18 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: When someone joins ISIS and starts beheading people there is often a discussion about the kind of cultural, religious and economic reasons there are for doing such extreme things.
Russias army is doing ISIS levels of warcrimes in Ukraine but almost no one in the west expected that. And frankly many people seem to have problems even accepting it.
What is happening is similar to the atrocities in Germany in '44 and '45 by the red army, right down to the alcholism and leveled cities. The difference is of course that in WWII the red army had just fougth of invaders trying their best to genocide their entire country which has been historically been used to explain it.
But this time they are invading what is supposed a brother country. It is like Sweden going full nazi invasion on Norway to steal their oil.
Also there is the full spectrum of warcrimes from individuals acting on their own, groups, orders to commit warcrimes and basically all the way up to the strategic levels (lets try to break civilian infrastructure in the most efficent way possible to terrorize them into surrendering).
There seems to be little or no reaction from the army itself, apparantly this is fine and the way things are.
That can't have happend overnight. The Russian army was like this before the war. And an army is made up from people who come from a society. And if the army decides to go full ISIS in 2022 with cameras everywhere that is going to reflect very badly on that society, the people living in it and their culture. Because people don't just lose all their morals from putting on a uniform. The nazis did manage to make ordinary people commit warcrimes but they often had to work to get them there. Warcrimes have at best no military value and are often counterproductive to the war effort, and there are multiple levels of oversight in any army that at the very least has to ignore whats happening. So it seems almost like a culture within the institution itself.
So even if the average Russian can't be expected to voice their dissent something still smells rotten in the state of Russia. And that is if we are being very generous with our assumptions of why the vast majority keep silent or are pro war.
So, are all Australians also subhuman orcs? Surely the special ops dudes who went around killing Afghani civilians for fun and their commanders who covered it up are also reflective of their society, the people living in it, and culture? Is every American who lived during Vietnam war a subhuman orc? How about Indians and Pakistanis, are they also subhuman orcs? Surely at least the Chinese must be, the entire 1,44 billion of them, for not standing up against the atrocities their government carries out?
Labels and judgments like this are no more useful than war crimes are. All it does is incite further violence and disrupt avenues towards reconciliation.
If we could harness energy from 'whataboutism" this post alone could power a small country for a year.
But OK.
A singular special forces detachment who committed several (39+ warcrimes) and their junior commanders (not above squad leader level according to the report) being in on it and covering it up. When exposed this caused a 450+ page investigation over 4 years, legal action, national outrage and is considered to be the worst stain in history by the Australian Armed forces. I can't see any evidence that this kind of behaviour was accepted, widespread and permeating the entire Australian army and thus cannot think that it could reflect their society. Furthermore the reaction from civil society, politicians and the public firmly suggest that this is not the case.
Compared to 15.000 cases of reported war crimes being reported in a little over a year by almost all different parts of the Russian army being involved in Ukraine. And being considered that they did not capture even close to most of the country and the vast majority of cases is from the even smaller area that was reclaimed. And that most of that area was reclaimed relatively quickly. With officers ordering war crimes (on all levels) and actual videos of war crimes being posted on Telegram. I can see a lot of evidence that this type of behaviour permeates the entire Russian armed forces. Especially given that said army has a historical unbroken track record of war crimes since at least the first world war. So given that the largest government institution in Russia seems to be "drenched in blood", over a long time and with different leaders, I think it's quite possible that this does in fact reflect on Russian society. And with 25 % of the population cheering on the behaviour and very few opposing it I can't see any clear evidence against it.
But there are probably some Australians (probably racist ultra nationalistic groups) who think that their heroes should have gotten a medal and the only crime was they didn't also kill the women and the children. And yes I do think these people are subhuman cunts.
As far as "Labels and judgments like this are no more useful than war crimes are."
One of the main reasons we got into this mess is misjudging what kind of values Russia and Putin has (see Angela Merkel...). And one of the main reasons Ukraine didn't get completely fucked is because the Eastern European countries hadn't forgotten and UK had recent polonium based reminders.
On April 19 2023 04:34 maybenexttime wrote: There is no reaction from the Russian army because that's how they have always operated. They acted the same when they invaded Poland in 1939, they did that in Afghanistan, they did that in Chechnya and now they're doing it in Ukraine.
I wanted to diasagree and say they're not as bad as they were in 39 but then I remembered all those pictures of stolen washing machines in Ukraine and I'm not sure now haha
If the problem was limited to stolen washing machines, instead of genocide, rape, destruction and kidnapping, we'd be talking a lot less about it. And yes, it's completely fucked. As was pointed out, this was a brethren country with many families sharing members across borders. The fact that a modern military can behave like this, with little oversight and zero repercussions, is insane
What I had in mind was the behaviour of common soldiers. No one doubts Russian leadership is responsible for the warcrimes, but I'm not sure if their soldiers rape and pillage as much as their fathers and grandparents did.
The uncovered mass graves in previously Russia-occupied Ukraine territory tells a different story. The amount of warcrimes happening in Ukraine atm indicates a complete systematic barbarism from top to bottom across all of Russia's soldiers.
On April 21 2023 02:33 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: And one of the main reasons Ukraine didn't get completely fucked is because the Eastern European countries hadn't forgotten and UK had recent polonium based reminders.
Maybe I'm misjudging this last sentence, which it feels like since the way I'm reading it doesn't make sense in context with the rest of your post, but the reason Ukraine didn't get completely fucked during the initial invasion is mainly due to Ukraine having had 10 years to build up their military to competent levels (Remember, Ukraine had been at constant war with Russia backed sympathisers and PMCs since Crimea), as well as US being absolute chads when it comes to intelligence and not only found out what Russia was up to weeks beforehand, but also how. Zelensky directly told the US to stfu and go about their business, thinking they were just out to weaken the Ukraine economy with scare tactics, before they flew down and explained to him first hand what they had gathered. This gave them time to relocate soldiers and equipment to vulnerable areas, like Kyiv, which would 100% have fallen if they hadn't been prepared for it.
But definitively props to Europe for waking the fuck up after the initial storm and start shipping equipment, despite looming nuclear threats from Russia in the beginning.
On April 21 2023 02:33 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: And one of the main reasons Ukraine didn't get completely fucked is because the Eastern European countries hadn't forgotten and UK had recent polonium based reminders.
Maybe I'm misjudging this last sentence, which it feels like since the way I'm reading it doesn't make sense in context with the rest of your post, but the reason Ukraine didn't get completely fucked during the initial invasion is mainly due to Ukraine having had 10 years to build up their military to competent levels (Remember, Ukraine had been at constant war with Russia backed sympathisers and PMCs since Crimea), as well as US being absolute chads when it comes to intelligence and not only found out what Russia was up to weeks beforehand, but also how. Zelensky directly told the US to stfu and go about their business, thinking they were just out to weaken the Ukraine economy with scare tactics, before they flew down and explained to him first hand what they had gathered. This gave them time to relocate soldiers and equipment to vulnerable areas, like Kyiv, which would 100% have fallen if they hadn't been prepared for it.
But definitively props to Europe for waking the fuck up after the initial storm and start shipping equipment, despite looming nuclear threats from Russia in the beginning.
Ukraine building up its army ever since Crimea is exactly what he is talking about,
The UK send a bunch of men to help with training in 2015 all the way up to the invasion in 2022. its entirely possible other Eastern European countries likewise helped, I just don't of them off the top of my head.
On April 21 2023 02:33 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: And one of the main reasons Ukraine didn't get completely fucked is because the Eastern European countries hadn't forgotten and UK had recent polonium based reminders.
Maybe I'm misjudging this last sentence, which it feels like since the way I'm reading it doesn't make sense in context with the rest of your post, but the reason Ukraine didn't get completely fucked during the initial invasion is mainly due to Ukraine having had 10 years to build up their military to competent levels (Remember, Ukraine had been at constant war with Russia backed sympathisers and PMCs since Crimea), as well as US being absolute chads when it comes to intelligence and not only found out what Russia was up to weeks beforehand, but also how. Zelensky directly told the US to stfu and go about their business, thinking they were just out to weaken the Ukraine economy with scare tactics, before they flew down and explained to him first hand what they had gathered. This gave them time to relocate soldiers and equipment to vulnerable areas, like Kyiv, which would 100% have fallen if they hadn't been prepared for it.
But definitively props to Europe for waking the fuck up after the initial storm and start shipping equipment, despite looming nuclear threats from Russia in the beginning.
Ukraine building up its army ever since Crimea is exactly what he is talking about,
The UK send a bunch of men to help with training in 2015 all the way up to the invasion in 2022. its entirely possible other Eastern European countries likewise helped, I just don't of them off the top of my head.
Canada and the US also definitely had deployments fortifying the Ukrainian army for this invasion.
Belgorod has been bombed, by Russia, accidentally.
April 20 (Reuters) - A Russian warplane accidentally fired a weapon into the city of Belgorod near Ukraine late on Thursday, causing an explosion and damaging buildings, Tass cited the defence ministry as saying.
Local authorities reported a large blast in the city, which lies just across the border from Ukraine. The regional governor said two women had been injured.
"As a Sukhoi Su-34 air force plane was flying over the city of Belgorod there was an accidental discharge of aviation ammunition," Tass cited the defence ministry as saying.
It did not say what kind of weapon was involved.
The Su-34 is a supersonic fighter-bomber jet.
The ministry said some buildings had been damaged and announced a probe was already under way, according to Tass.
Belgorod region governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, announcing a state of emergency, said on Telegram there was a crater measuring 20 metres (65 feet) across on one of the main streets. Four cars and four apartment buildings were damaged, he added.
Video footage from the site showed piles of concrete on the street, several damaged cars and a building with broken windows. One shot showed what appeared to be car upside down on the roof of a store.
The Belgorod region is one of several parts of southern Russia where targets such as fuel and ammunition stores have been rocked by explosions since the start of what Moscow calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
EPT
